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Beyond imports: the supply chain effects of trade protection on export growth, Accessible Data
Figure 1. Cumulative Count of New U.S. Import Tariffs on Traded Goods: Country by Tariff Line Basis
The figure shows the 4-quarter growth rate of U.S. goods exports from 2017 Q1 through 2019 Q3 in bar chart form. The bars drop from large positives to small negatives in 2018 to larger negatives in 2019. The overall pattern is shown for many different cuts of the data: all U.S. exports (first bars for each quarter), U.S. exports excluding products facing retaliatory tariffs (second bars for each quarter), U.S. exports further excluding China and NAFTA (third bars for each quarter), and U.S. exports further excluding exports to Europe and Asia (fourth bars for each quarter).
Notes: New U.S. import tariffs from January 2018 to December 2019 matched to 2016 import data with positive annual exports. Observations are at the country-tariff line (HS8) level. Metals Wave 2 reduction reflects country exemption granted in 2019. Product list for China Wave 3 at 10% and 25% is unchanged.
Figure 2. Average Quarterly Country-Product Export Growth 2017Q1-2019Q4 (year-on-year): Total Growth and Progressively Excluding Groups
The figure shows the time series of U.S. import tariffs, with the y-axis the number of country-HS8 lines facing new tariffs. Moving along the time axis, tariffs were imposed on solar products and washing machines in early 2018, followed by metals tariffs (2nd and 3 bars), and 3 waves of tariffs on Chinese imports.
Notes: Bars are average monthly log export growth (year-on-year) within each quarter from 2017Q1-2019Q4. Observations are at the country-product (HS6) level. Key identifies bars in order from left to right.
Figure 3. Import Tariff Exposure Coefficients by Quarter
The figure shows the coefficients for Import Tariff Exposure in each quarter of 2018 and 2019. The most negative coefficients are found in 2019 Q2 and 2019 Q3, with other quarters negative but less different from zero.
Notes: Coefficients and 95% confidence intervals from separate regressions of export growth on each ITE measure.
Figure 4. Ad Valorem Equivalent Tariff Change on U.S. Export Growth of Import Tariff Exposure
We compute the ad valorem equivalent tariff (AVE) using the coefficients in Table 10 and equation (8). We average coefficients across quarters from 2018 and 2019. The figure shows that AVE tariffs are higher for the higher the ITE value, and that the 2019 AVEs are about double the size of the 2018 AVEs for the same level of ITE.
Notes: New U.S. import tariffs from January 2018 to December 2019 matched to 2016 import data with positive annual exports. Observations are at the country-tariff line (HS8) level. Metals Wave 2 reduction reflects country exemption granted in 2019. Product list for China Wave 3 at 10% and 25% is unchanged.