Accessible Version

China shock 2.0: How China’s ongoing export surge differs from the early 2000s, Accessible Data

Figure 1: China's unprecedented trade surplus as a share of the rest-of-the-world GDP

Figure 1a: Chinese Trade Over World GDP ex. China
Percent

Year Export Share Import Share
1995 0.004956636 0.004400402
1996 0.004935595 0.004536491
1997 0.006014585 0.00468454
1998 0.006080218 0.0046389
1999 0.006249886 0.005312649
2000 0.007748266 0.006998664
2001 0.008349047 0.007641678
2002 0.009853709 0.008932909
2003 0.011837575 0.011149624
2004 0.014259029 0.013487663
2005 0.01697383 0.014701603
2006 0.020013849 0.016348016
2007 0.022531262 0.0176569
2008 0.024296685 0.019233694
2009 0.021826354 0.018264643
2010 0.026411097 0.023368504
2011 0.028905397 0.026545325
2012 0.030886206 0.027410117
2013 0.032796879 0.028951243
2014 0.034223677 0.028626709
2015 0.035838658 0.026476345
2016 0.032530626 0.024625785
2017 0.0331386 0.026995418
2018 0.034602171 0.029692065
2019 0.034297753 0.028535007
2020 0.037066298 0.029628557
2021 0.042206667 0.034103825
2022 0.043519516 0.032891531
2023 0.038803345 0.029354491
2024 0.039426546 0.028497583

Note: China’s export and import share is measured as a percentage of global GDP excluding China. China Shock 1.0 shading extends from 2001 to 2008. China Shock 2.0 shading extends from 2018 to 2024.

Source: Haver Analytics; Author’s Calculations.

Figure 1b: Trade Surplus as a Share of Rest-of-World GDP
Percent

Year China Japan Germany
1980 -0.018012329 -0.117923859 0.050428945
1981 -7.34E-05 0.089354255 0.114625957
1982 0.028150753 0.075959596 0.205134724
1983 0.007616833 0.205033014 0.157255899
1984 -0.011154728 0.323225747 0.171411113
1985 -0.124848975 0.430175761 0.220200614
1986 -0.084612549 0.673622925 0.393715466
1987 -0.023248595 0.576535464 0.431296106
1988 -0.041431493 0.488753832 0.411717742
1989 -0.03385019 0.387468922 0.388787347
1990 0.039386617 0.271449008 0.313229471
1991 0.034778811 0.39314743 0.067389178
1992 0.01764381 0.505066579 0.096125383
1993 -0.048697244 0.574491554 0.152290961
1994 0.020025483 0.53416743 0.175326005
1995 0.055623438 0.413764988 0.21180512
1996 0.039913595 0.240086709 0.226579493
1997 0.133004474 0.339557097 0.232048795
1998 0.143810954 0.408010038 0.247932208
1999 0.093723768 0.39179406 0.227796361
2000 0.074960149 0.313430173 0.17410059
2001 0.070736816 0.187820645 0.276059204
2002 0.092080049 0.263259008 0.391958688
2003 0.068795094 0.256894795 0.411614705
2004 0.077136695 0.285197321 0.469540034
2005 0.227224993 0.181746965 0.441557691
2006 0.366670084 0.146095381 0.415156496
2007 0.48743434 0.173428867 0.497734901
2008 0.506300813 0.034239126 0.438865847
2009 0.355442717 0.055787368 0.33999381
2010 0.303835751 0.130266534 0.323210188
2011 0.235850341 -0.051873974 0.312656824
2012 0.347200347 -0.125658929 0.350304958
2013 0.38455614 -0.163737767 0.362166247
2014 0.559693859 -0.163753768 0.379675336
2015 0.936221824 -0.033434313 0.377689216
2016 0.790460829 0.048973469 0.376330695
2017 0.614277202 0.03449095 0.366353129
2018 0.488390155 -0.011194983 0.334374661
2019 0.577856906 -0.019209029 0.304085322
2020 0.750159101 0.00724501 0.252908592
2021 0.810284206 -0.016147598 0.221308302
2022 1.014754582 -0.161894817 0.093472734
2023 0.943865888 -0.069585123 0.233489247
2024 1.094182718 -0.034733878 0.252749254

Note: Trade surplus includes primary and manufactured goods and is measured as a share of rest-of-world GDP.

Source: Haver Analytics; Author’s Calculations.

Return to text

Figure 2: The resounding increased prominence of China in World Trade

Figure 2a: China's Share of World Trade
Percent

Year Export Share Import Share
1995 0.031769951 0.027873198
1996 0.030227537 0.027324167
1997 0.034998315 0.026393554
1998 0.034874001 0.026226691
1999 0.035643418 0.029550006
2000 0.039592922 0.034884125
2001 0.043860187 0.039105255
2002 0.051014266 0.04516058
2003 0.058739054 0.054054196
2004 0.065633988 0.060268531
2005 0.074806884 0.06290119
2006 0.081328196 0.065074945
2007 0.089613433 0.068417569
2008 0.090828233 0.070013106
2009 0.09798829 0.08079318
2010 0.105800464 0.092583381
2011 0.106067751 0.096954648
2012 0.114728743 0.100669952
2013 0.118954562 0.10542481
2014 0.126770618 0.105836246
2015 0.140786084 0.103286986
2016 0.133384204 0.100090136
2017 0.130770164 0.10503173
2018 0.130828769 0.1103993
2019 0.135433579 0.110752522
2020 0.150410141 0.118879315
2021 0.153134481 0.122030432
2022 0.152457236 0.110186579
2023 0.149560357 0.110504296
2024 0.16342501 0.115317497

Note: China’s export and import share is measured as a percentage of global exports and global imports. China Shock 1.0 shading extends from 2001 to 2008. China Shock 2.0 shading extends from 2018 to 2024.

Source: UN Comtrade; Author’s Calculations.

Figure 2b: Change in China's Share of World Trade
Annualized rate, percent

Period Exports Imports
2000 to 2007 0.71 0.48
2018 to 2024 0.54 0.08

Note: Changes in China's world trade share are measured by calculating the difference between China's global share of exports and global share of imports across three periods: 2000-2007 and 2018-2024. Key series identifies series in order from left to right.

Source: UN Comtrade; Author’s Calculations.

Return to text

Figure 3: Chinese import penetration continues to grow, except in the U.S.

Top Chart: Chinese Import Penetration by Region, 2007
Percent share of imports from China in total goods imports by regional aggregates

Region Year Import share (%)
Africa 2007 8.894573801
Canada 2007 9.411546833
Europe 2007 6.166499485
Mexico + Central America 2007 10.12363435
Middle East and Asia (ex Russia) 2007 17.91290813
Oceania 2007 14.79532765
Russia 2007 12.63746896
South America 2007 10.66015182
United States 2007 16.86099562

Bottom Chart: Chinese Import Penetration by Region, 2024
Percent share of imports from China in total goods imports by regional aggregates

Region Year China Import Share
Africa 2024 18.56299979
Canada 2024 11.59336881
Europe 2024 9.983767349
Mexico + Central America 2024 19.41421709
Middle East and Asia (ex Russia) 2024 24.37229033
Oceania 2024 24.65507245
Russia 2024 52.12512633
South America 2024 24.77217184
United States 2024 13.78153649

Note: The United States, Canada and Russia are shown individually, while other countries are grouped into regions, and we colored all countries of a given region with the same color based on aggregate changes. Our aggregate regions are: (i) Mexico and Central America, (ii) South America, (iii) Africa, (iv) Europe and Middle-East, (v) Asia (except Russia), and (vi) Oceania.

Source: UN Comtrade, IMF IMTS, Authors’ calculations.

Return to text

Figure 4: Evolution of China’s Export Similarity Index (ESI) with selected countries

Left Chart: ESI between China and Selected AFEs
Percent

Year U.S. Japan Euro area
1995 39.66280865981159 34.23593774258807 44.447031144590376
1996 40.824897822226006 35.573172357412794 44.36345352
1997 41.97669044151069 36.22089734402529 44.874584854189145
1998 43.71992328037443 38.38946690608678 44.88412019940183
1999 44.69552906615776 40.00812390285167 45.82049043376127
2000 45.95150348558331 40.67092278134622 45.82394496779137
2001 46.40876534168007 41.79746452 46.04877175624536
2002 45.248007027604416 40.44571088443358 45.41764782407894
2003 44.42110565004467 40.20024036144789 44.462529290115086
2004 44.817392268256285 41.46987392860755 45.54927259936466
2005 45.69757314537765 42.08654533929954 46.65704152250042
2006 45.69685219331975 43.56986847139386 47.49844624080727
2007 45.00730040888985 43.986750126869765 48.23736524605593
2008 45.64878395986839 45.52370114585033 48.86019278223143
2009 45.84141394239247 45.04207254304203 47.31777392789045
2010 46.16476686840113 45.23277515092542 47.30837244036102
2011 45.55482175169888 45.71775811250965 47.82612766411335
2012 45.06453714324701 44.83887185697452 46.864877485963575
2013 44.688006785627486 44.70446473106781 46.72704995735873
2014 45.450583595293374 44.32830705795244 47.78823693806181
2015 46.24741106487551 44.41976245608472 47.65800100425379
2016 46.799586276058015 44.15173720276495 49.06652613531632
2017 46.39368537039798 44.608890654198255 49.95901732641912
2018 45.95555874231757 45.33576635623112 50.866992084427565
2019 46.09509784696576 46.22534062473908 51.445449872989045
2020 46.132502514142445 46.22387309526789 51.57496554555545
2021 46.34491037782741 47.56288719229936 53.39180195279663
2022 46.09234793 49.52929317975995 54.66046181616052
2023 49.33740573434519 51.14036476499331 57.07236011959148
2024 50.34438343338849 52.30894970095596 57.61550504

Right Chart: ESI between China and Selected EMEs
Percent

Year Vietnam Indonesia Pakistan
1995   43.0616954 32.893386965206886
1996   43.61359796498343 31.715546120116976
1997 39.39091346046813 37.07774483020507 32.015935240619584
1998 35.70700435394825 35.96221992910661 30.405259723354103
1999 38.94266737565143 43.78168537363276 30.140008342124027
2000 38.126890502146175 49.535227135480106 30.875194256125855
2001 41.20639478940869 49.12182176179639 29.856081488014464
2002 41.27426195568625 46.76840726215039 30.43910082
2003 40.10519471784868 44.85167069034552 29.881082406078978
2004 38.821827634446656 44.13070467677584 28.600788328505615
2005 37.96210006211833 43.20404406273392 28.50873287529387
2006 39.40948238752748 40.93159675572819 27.25204083
2007 41.01509599947942 38.20748512235272 26.33910372
2008 41.21425538613912 35.944527894262166 24.860522708404385
2009 42.51306483957807 36.92399626601864 27.005637247988233
2010 46.70533547424237 34.94009817102253 25.94651882326926
2011 50.44603477 32.55020392 25.392970759301036
2012 53.18402195473595 33.53076174477265 25.274425822356168
2013 54.3220753 34.17129725821943 25.131537518181403
2014 54.85239840837247 36.159484743998206 25.25737377
2015 56.70399256128241 37.29753312485621 23.532504971021744
2016 58.241782523047526 37.87562512721529 23.792489852928092
2017 57.73373306262247 34.99297270728186 23.322652069020585
2018 56.504800476940254 35.02421653218636 22.190393130280405
2019 57.872283815312834 35.52214612652379 21.970166355689663
2020 58.303957317372166 33.77129499929901 22.74050787552176
2021 57.99823190168502 32.64035844616922 20.5864069
2022 57.18467741645858 32.42648600862934 19.97569799505767
2023 59.75065873841336 34.206783218458945 20.24712546429254
2024   35.07798633659396 20.010641095703463

Note: China Shock 1.0 shading extends from 2001 to 2008. China Shock 2.0 shading extends from 2018 to 2024.

Source: de Soyres et al. (2025), Authors’ calculations.

Return to text

Last Update: May 29, 2026