Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Figure 1. Percent change in cross−border bank lending, by currency and geography

The chart's x-axis extends between 2015 Q2 and 2024 Q2. The y-axis, which plots the 4 quarter percent change in cross-border bank lending, has a range of –12 to 16. There are three lines with designations for EMEs in all currencies, EMEs in U.S. dollars, and total global lending in U.S. dollars. The three lines generally move in tandem, with the EMEs in all currencies line fluctuating more than the other two between 2015 Q2 and 2018 Q4. For the purposes of visualization, it is important to note that the EMEs in all currencies line had a negative value pre-2017 and again between 2022 Q3 and 2023 Q3. The EMEs in U.S. dollars line has extreme negative values (dipping to nearly –9) between 2022 and 2023, remaining negative but edging toward positive after 2024 Q1. In the 2022 Q2 to 2023 Q3 period, both the EMEs in all currencies and total global lending in U.S. dollars lines dipped negative, but both recovered before the EMEs in U.S. dollar line. In the most recent quarter, the global lending in USD and USD lending to EMEs lines both dip around 2 percentage points.

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Figure 2. Change in dollar−denominated cross−border bank lending to EMEs

This chart's y-axis visualizes the change in USD-denominated cross-border bank lending to EMEs in terms of billions of USD (ranges between –350 and 350). The level changes are depicted by stacked bars centered at the x = 0 horizontal line, and each stack represents one of four regions: Latin America and the Caribbean, Africa and the Middle East, emerging Europe, and emerging Asia. It is important to note that the level change for emerging Asia is significantly more negative than for any other region starting in 2022 Q4. Latin America and the Caribbean's line moves from negative between 2020 Q4 and 2021 Q3 to positive after 2022 Q1; it remains close to zero in subsequent periods. Emerging Europe's level changes are significantly smaller than emerging Asia's, and Africa and the Middle East's level changes move in tandem with emerging Asia's but to a much smaller degree.

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Figure 3. Change in cross−border bank lending to emerging Asia, by currency

This figure depicts two stacked bar charts: one for the period of the China scare (2015 Q3 to 2016 Q1) and the other for the current data period (2022 Q2 to 2024 Q2). The y-axis shows the level change in cross-border bank lending to emerging Asia, ranging between –600 and 400 billion USD. The three stacks are for non-major currencies, U.S. dollars, and other major currencies and unallocated. In the China scare period, non-major currencies, USD, and other major currencies and unallocated are negative at roughly –250, -150, and –70 billion USD, respectively. In the current period, non-major currencies is significantly positive at 300 billion USD while USD and other major currencies and unallocated remain negative at around –400 and –25 billion USD, respectively.

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Figure 4. Share of cross−border lending in dollars, by borrowing region (lending to China excluded)

This chart is a simple line chart with two lines, one for emerging Asia and the other for all other EMEs. The x-axis is in years, ranging from 2015 to 2024 Q1, and the y-axis is dollar share in percent, ranging from 50 to 75 percent. The all other EMEs line begins level but slopes down starting in 2017 Q1, continuing to trend negative from roughly 65 percent in 2016 Q4 to nearly 55 percent in 2024 Q2. Meanwhile, the emerging Asia line trends slightly positive between 2015 Q2 and 2016 Q1, going from around 71 to 74 percent, and then trends sharply negative more quickly than the all other EMEs line, stopping at nearly 55 percent in 2024 Q2, where it begins to cross the all other EMEs line. Note that this chart excludes all lending to China.

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Figure 5. Chinese bank global cross−border lending (to all borrowing countries), by currency

This chart depicts three lines visualizing the total volume of Chinese bank global cross-border lending to all borrowing countries over time. The three lines diverge by the currency they represent: all currencies, non-major currencies, and USD. The x-axis begins in 2015 Q4 and extends to 2024 Q2, while the y-axis ranges from 250 to 3,000 billion USD. The non-major currencies line is the lowest, beginning at around 500 billion USD and trending slightly positive through the date maximum to roughly 1,100 billion USD. The all currencies line follows a similar path, but begins at around 1,500 in 2016 and ends at roughly 2,600 in 2024 Q2. Meanwhile, the USD line only follows a similar path up until 2022 Q1, beginning at around 900 billion USD in 2015 Q4 and peaking at 1,500. After 2022 Q1, the USD line begins trending negative, ending at nearly 1,250 billion USD in 2024 Q2.

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Figure 6. Dollar share of global cross−border lending (to all borrowing countries), by lender

This chart has two lines showing the dollar share, in percent, of global cross-border lending to all borrowing countries. One line shows the trend for Chinese banks and the other is for all non-Chinese banks, with the y-axis ranging from 40 percent to 70 percent and the x-axis extending from 2016 Q1 to 2024 Q2. The non-Chinese banks line stays relatively steady around 45 to 47 percent between 2016 and 2022 Q1, then dips slightly to 43 or 44 percent, showing signs of recovery toward 46 percent in 2024 Q2. Meanwhile, the Chinese banks line begins high at between 60 and 65 percent and stays steady until 2021 Q1, after which it trends sharply down and ends at 50 percent in 2024 Q2.

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Figure 7. Chinese financial institutions’ RMB loans overseas

This chart has two y-axes: one showing the percent share of Chinese financial institutions' RMB loans overseas (ranging from 0 to 40 percent) and one showing the total outstanding of RMB loans overseas in terms of billions of U.S. dollars. The x-axis is a date range from 2015 to June 2024. A red line shows the percent share change over time, remaining steady at around 10 to 15 percent between 2015 and the beginning of 2022 before climbing sharply upward and ending at nearly 40 percent in June 2024 at a steep incline. A light gray area shows the total outstanding of RMB loans abroad and follows a similar trend, inclining slightly from around 30 billion USD in 2015 to around 100 billion USD at the beginning of 2022 and then rising sharply to nearly 250 billion USD in mid-2024.

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Figure 8. U.S., Euro−area, and China 3−month interbank rates

This chart visualizes the time series trends of three 3-month interbank rates, one for China, the euro area, and the United States. The x-axis is a date range extending from 2014 to June 2024, and the y-axis is a percent ranging from –2 to 10 percent. The Chinese interbank rate follows a much less steady path than the other two, beginning at around 7 percent in 2014 before taking a sharp downturn to around 5 percent, then another sharp downturn to around 3 percent after a brief increase in early-2015. It remains steady until a sharp increase in 2017 to 5 percent, where it oscillates roughly plus-minus 4 percentage points and slowly levels out to around 2.5 percent in June 2024. The euro area interbank rate starts barely positive at around 0.25 percent and turns negative in late-2015, remaining extremely steady until mid-2022 when it sharply increases and ends at 4 percent in early-2024. It shows signs of leveling out at the 4-percent level. The U.S. interbank rate starts at a similar level, but increases moderately from 1 percent in late-2015 to nearly 3 percent in late-2018. It then experiences a moderate decrease through March 2020; at this point, there is a series break due to the U.S. shifting from LIBOR to SPFR, and the May 2020 U.S. interbank rate is sharply lower than the March 2020 level at nearly 0 percent. It stays at this level until early-2022, after which is sharply rises to nearly 6 percent in late-2023. By mid-2024, it has leveled at around 5.5 percent. It is important to note that the U.S. and euro area interbank rates rise higher than the Chinese interbank rate in mid-2022 and early-2023, respectively, and end roughly 3.5 and 1.5 percentage points, respectively, higher than the Chinese rate in March 2024.

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