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Decoding the Productivity Puzzle: A New Perspective on the Relationship between Remote Work and Productivity, Accessible Data

Figure 1. Expanding Remote Ability Raises Productivity

Labor Productivity

Lags (in years) Labor Productivity Level Effect Upper Bound Lower Bound
0 0.06 0.18 -0.06
1 0.11 0.22 0.00
2 0.15 0.26 0.05
3 0.17 0.27 0.08
4 0.16 0.26 0.06
5 0.14 0.24 0.03
6 0.13 0.24 0.01
7 0.12 0.24 0.01
8 0.11 0.23 0.00
9 0.09 0.20 -0.01
10 0.03 0.14 -0.08

Multi-Factor Productivity

Lags (in years) MFP Level Effect Upper Bound Lower Bound
0 0.02 0.10 -0.05
1 0.05 0.12 -0.02
2 0.03 0.10 -0.03
3 0.07 0.13 0.00
4 0.08 0.14 0.02
5 0.08 0.15 0.02
6 0.09 0.16 0.02
7 0.08 0.15 0.01
8 0.03 0.10 -0.03
9 0.01 0.09 -0.08
10 -0.01 0.06 -0.08

Notes: Left Panel - Point estimates of the effect of remote ability on labor productivity, controlling for year- and 4-digit NAICS fixed effects. Shaded area denotes 95 percent confidence interval. Right Panel - Point estimates of the effect of remote ability on multifactor productivity, controlling for year- and 4-digit NAICS fixed effects. Shaded area denotes 95 percent confidence interval.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration (USDOL/ETA).

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Figure 2. Remote Ability is Intrinsically Connected to Trends in Technology Adoption

Computer and Internet Use

Year Computer Ownership Internet Use
2003 62 55
2007 70 62
2009 74 69
2010 77 71
2011 76 72
2012 79 75
2013 84 74
2014 85 80
2015 87 77
2016 89 82
2017 91 84
2018 92 85
2021 95 90

Imports of Computer and Communication Eq

Year US Imports World ex. US
2003 129 557
2004 155 707
2005 174 775
2006 189 888
2007 203 968
2008 203 1025
2009 184 829
2010 220 1032
2011 229 1106
2012 237 1132
2013 239 1128
2014 243 1142
2015 250 1087
2016 244 1049
2017 262 1177
2018 267 1237
2019 252 1212
2020 257 1222
2021 298 1422
2022 324 1383
2023 289 1296
2024 325  

Notes: Left Panel Notes - Percent of households. Data through 2012 and for 2014 are from the Current Population Survey, while data for 2013 and from 2015 are from the American Community Survey. Right Panel Notes - Nominal imports of products classified in computer and communication equipment for specific country groups.

Suorce: Left Panel Source - Source: BLS and U.S. Census Bureau. Right Panel Source: World Bank.

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Figure 3. Remote Ability Responds to Global (ex U.S.) Imports of High-Tech Goods
Lags (in years) Remote Ability Level Effect Upper Bound Lower Bound
0 -2.4 -0.9 -4.0
1 -1.4 -0.1 -2.7
2 -0.4 0.8 -1.5
3 0.9 2.2 -0.3
4 1.8 3.2 0.4
5 2.6 4.4 0.8
6 4.1 6.7 1.6
7 3.7 6.2 1.2
8 2.9 5.1 0.6
9 1.9 3.6 0.1
10 1.8 3.3 0.2
11 2.3 4.3 0.2
12 2.2 4.5 -0.1
13 1.4 3.8 -1.1
14 -1.0 0.8 -2.8

Notes: Point estimates of the effect of world (excluding U.S.) imports of computers and communication equipment on remote ability, controlling for year- and 4-digit NAICS fixed effects. Shaded area denotes 95 percent confidence interval.

Source: BLS, World Bank, and USDOL/ETA.

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Figure 4. The Positive Impact of Remote Ability on Labor Productivity Is Robust
Lags (in years) Labor Productivity Level Effect Upper Bound Lower Bound
0 1.1 2.3 -0.1
1 1.4 2.7 0.2
2 1.7 2.9 0.4
3 1.8 3.0 0.6
4 2.0 3.4 0.7
5 2.6 4.3 1.0
6 2.7 4.7 0.7
7 3.0 5.8 0.3
8 3.6 6.8 0.4
9 4.6 10.2 -1.0
10 6.1 19.3 -7.0

Notes: Point estimates of the effect of remote ability, instrumented with world ex U.S. imports of computers and communication equipment, on labor productivity, controlling for year- and 4-digit NAICS fixed effects. Shaded area denotes 95 percent confidence interval.

Source: BLS, World Bank, and USDOL/ETA.

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Last Update: August 25, 2025