Accessible Version
Dementia Harms Household Finances Years before Clinical Recognition, Accessible Data
Figure 1a. Beneficiaries with Alzheimer’s Disease and Related Dementias (ADRD) exhibit elevated payment delinquency years before a diagnosis, relative to those who are never diagnosed
| Quarters before/after Diagnosis | ADRD Payment Delinquency |
|---|---|
| -28 | 0.0015 (-0.0018, 0.0047) |
| -27 | 0.0025 (-0.00075, 0.0058) |
| -26 | 0.0027 (-0.00054, 0.0060) |
| -25 | 0.0021 (-0.0012, 0.0054) |
| -24 | 0.0036 (0.00026, 0.0069) |
| -23 | 0.0039 (0.00057, 0.0072) |
| -22 | 0.0028 (-0.00054, 0.0061) |
| -21 | 0.0034 (0.000048, 0.0067) |
| -20 | 0.0039 (0.00058, 0.0073) |
| -19 | 0.0047 (0.0014, 0.0081) |
| -18 | 0.0034 (0.000045, 0.0068) |
| -17 | 0.0030 (-0.00035, 0.0064) |
| -16 | 0.0021 (-0.0012, 0.0055) |
| -15 | 0.0031 (-0.00028, 0.0065) |
| -14 | 0.0040 (0.00059, 0.0074) |
| -13 | 0.0040 (0.00062, 0.0074) |
| -12 | 0.0035 (0.00011, 0.0069) |
| -11 | 0.0037 (0.00030, 0.0071) |
| -10 | 0.0058 (0.0024, 0.0093) |
| -9 | 0.0054 (0.0019, 0.0089) |
| -8 | 0.0046 (0.0011, 0.0081) |
| -7 | 0.0042 (0.00074, 0.0077) |
| -6 | 0.0032 (-0.00030, 0.0066) |
| -5 | 0.0040 (0.00051, 0.0074) |
| -4 | 0.0059 (0.0024, 0.0095) |
| -3 | 0.0068 (0.0033, 0.010) |
| -2 | 0.0074 (0.0039, 0.011) |
| -1 | 0.0081 (0.0045, 0.012) |
| 0 | 0.0092 (0.0056, 0.013) |
| 1 | 0.010 (0.0067, 0.014) |
| 2 | 0.012 (0.0079, 0.015) |
| 3 | 0.014 (0.010, 0.018) |
| 4 | 0.011 (0.0073, 0.015) |
| 5 | 0.013 (0.0089, 0.016) |
| 6 | 0.012 (0.0081, 0.016) |
| 7 | 0.011 (0.0070, 0.015) |
| 8 | 0.011 (0.0067, 0.014) |
| 9 | 0.010 (0.0064, 0.014) |
| 10 | 0.0078 (0.0040, 0.012) |
| 11 | 0.010 (0.0063, 0.014) |
| 12 | 0.0097 (0.0058, 0.014) |
| 13 | 0.0088 (0.0049, 0.013) |
| 14 | 0.0076 (0.0037, 0.012) |
| 15 | 0.0070 (0.0030, 0.011) |
Source: Nicholas, Langa, Bynum, and Hsu (2020). Circles are regression coefficients representing the percentage point (pp) increase in payment delinquency at each time point in comparison to payment delinquency rates among Medicare beneficiaries who are never diagnosed with ADRD. Vertical lines represent 95% confidence intervals. Data sources: FRBNY CCP/Equifax and Medicare Beneficiary Summary File, 1999-2018.
Figure 1b. Beneficiaries with ADRD begin showing elevated rates of subprime credit scores (Equifax Risk Score) before a diagnosis, relative to those who are never diagnosed
| Quarters before/after Diagnosis | ADRD Subprime Credit Score |
|---|---|
| -28 | 0.00055 (-0.0028, 0.0039) |
| -27 | 0.0018 (-0.0015, 0.0052) |
| -26 | 0.0027 (-0.00061, 0.0061) |
| -25 | 0.0012 (-0.0021, 0.0045) |
| -24 | 0.0015 (-0.0018, 0.0049) |
| -23 | 0.0015 (-0.0018, 0.0048) |
| -22 | 0.0018 (-0.0016, 0.0051) |
| -21 | 0.0031 (-0.00030, 0.0064) |
| -20 | 0.0020 (-0.0014, 0.0053) |
| -19 | 0.0029 (-0.00047, 0.0063) |
| -18 | 0.0032 (-0.00018, 0.0066) |
| -17 | 0.0034 (-0.000033, 0.0068) |
| -16 | 0.0030 (-0.00044, 0.0063) |
| -15 | 0.0023 (-0.0011, 0.0057) |
| -14 | 0.0028 (-0.00058, 0.0062) |
| -13 | 0.0025 (-0.00092, 0.0059) |
| -12 | 0.0020 (-0.0014, 0.0054) |
| -11 | 0.0027 (-0.00076, 0.0061) |
| -10 | 0.0038 (0.00037, 0.0072) |
| -9 | 0.0035 (0.000039, 0.0069) |
| -8 | 0.0044 (0.00093, 0.0078) |
| -7 | 0.0049 (0.0014, 0.0083) |
| -6 | 0.0039 (0.00044, 0.0073) |
| -5 | 0.0039 (0.00048, 0.0073) |
| -4 | 0.0053 (0.0018, 0.0087) |
| -3 | 0.0053 (0.0018, 0.0087) |
| -2 | 0.0046 (0.0012, 0.0081) |
| -1 | 0.0063 (0.0028, 0.0098) |
| 0 | 0.0060 (0.0025, 0.0095) |
| 1 | 0.0070 (0.0034, 0.011) |
| 2 | 0.0096 (0.0060, 0.013) |
| 3 | 0.011 (0.0069, 0.014) |
| 4 | 0.0081 (0.0045, 0.012) |
| 5 | 0.0098 (0.0062, 0.014) |
| 6 | 0.0091 (0.0054, 0.013) |
| 7 | 0.0086 (0.0048, 0.012) |
| 8 | 0.0079 (0.0042, 0.012) |
| 9 | 0.0090 (0.0053, 0.013) |
| 10 | 0.0075 (0.0037, 0.011) |
| 11 | 0.0071 (0.0034, 0.011) |
| 12 | 0.0063 (0.0026, 0.010) |
| 13 | 0.0046 (0.00091, 0.0084) |
| 14 | 0.0035 (-0.00022, 0.0072) |
| 15 | 0.0024 (-0.0014, 0.0061) |
Source: Nicholas, Langa, Bynum, and Hsu (2020). Circles are regression coefficients representing the percentage point (pp) increase in subprime credit scores (Equifax Risk Scores) associated with each time point relative to no ADRD. Vertical lines represent 95% confidence intervals. Data sources: FRBNY CCP/Equifax and Medicare Beneficiary Summary File, 1999-2018.
Figure 2a. In contrast to ADRD (Figure 1a), beneficiaries who develop other health conditions do not exhibit systematically elevated payment delinquency before or after diagnosis.
Payment Delinquency
| Quarters before/after Diagnosis | Arthritis | Glaucoma | Heart Attack | Hip Fracture |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -28 | -0.0066 (-0.011, -0.0025) | -0.0069 (-0.013, -0.0010) | -0.0014 (-0.010, 0.0075) | 0.0010 (-0.0062, 0.0082) |
| -27 | -0.0057 (-0.0098, -0.0017) | -0.0058 (-0.012, 0.000037) | 0.0052 (-0.0042, 0.015) | -0.0024 (-0.0093, 0.0046) |
| -26 | -0.0059 (-0.0100, -0.0019) | -0.0049 (-0.011, 0.00087) | 0.0025 (-0.0067, 0.012) | -0.0013 (-0.0083, 0.0057) |
| -25 | -0.0052 (-0.0092, -0.0012) | -0.0080 (-0.014, -0.0023) | 0.0015 (-0.0075, 0.011) | -0.0016 (-0.0086, 0.0054) |
| -24 | -0.0059 (-0.0099, -0.0019) | -0.0038 (-0.0095, 0.0019) | 0.0020 (-0.0070, 0.011) | -0.0029 (-0.0099, 0.0040) |
| -23 | -0.0067 (-0.011, -0.0028) | -0.0046 (-0.010, 0.0010) | -0.00022 (-0.0090, 0.0085) | 0.00040 (-0.0067, 0.0075) |
| -22 | -0.0041 (-0.0081, -0.00011) | -0.0062 (-0.012, -0.00061) | 0.0033 (-0.0057, 0.012) | 0.00099 (-0.0061, 0.0080) |
| -21 | -0.0041 (-0.0081, -0.000098) | -0.0048 (-0.010, 0.00088) | 0.0035 (-0.0054, 0.012) | -0.0030 (-0.0097, 0.0038) |
| -20 | -0.0038 (-0.0078, 0.00012) | -0.0072 (-0.013, -0.0017) | -0.00095 (-0.0096, 0.0077) | 0.00047 (-0.0065, 0.0074) |
| -19 | -0.0025 (-0.0065, 0.0015) | -0.0070 (-0.013, -0.0015) | 0.0023 (-0.0065, 0.011) | -0.0029 (-0.0096, 0.0039) |
| -18 | -0.00083 (-0.0048, 0.0031) | -0.0047 (-0.010, 0.00090) | 0.0047 (-0.0042, 0.014) | -0.0015 (-0.0084, 0.0053) |
| -17 | -0.0016 (-0.0056, 0.0023) | -0.0053 (-0.011, 0.00026) | 0.0050 (-0.0038, 0.014) | -0.00064 (-0.0075, 0.0062) |
| -16 | -0.00100 (-0.0049, 0.0029) | -0.0026 (-0.0082, 0.0030) | 0.0066 (-0.0023, 0.016) | 0.00035 (-0.0065, 0.0072) |
| -15 | 0.0030 (-0.00100, 0.0069) | -0.0015 (-0.0071, 0.0041) | 0.0065 (-0.0023, 0.015) | 0.0010 (-0.0058, 0.0079) |
| -14 | 0.0014 (-0.0025, 0.0054) | -0.0015 (-0.0070, 0.0041) | 0.0060 (-0.0028, 0.015) | 0.00073 (-0.0061, 0.0076) |
| -13 | 0.0026 (-0.0013, 0.0066) | -0.0039 (-0.0094, 0.0015) | 0.0021 (-0.0064, 0.011) | 0.00057 (-0.0063, 0.0074) |
| -12 | 0.0023 (-0.0017, 0.0062) | -0.010 (-0.015, -0.0048) | 0.0016 (-0.0068, 0.010) | 0.0014 (-0.0055, 0.0083) |
| -11 | -0.00085 (-0.0047, 0.0030) | -0.0069 (-0.012, -0.0015) | -0.0012 (-0.0096, 0.0071) | 0.00053 (-0.0064, 0.0074) |
| -10 | -0.0012 (-0.0050, 0.0027) | -0.0070 (-0.012, -0.0018) | -0.00089 (-0.0093, 0.0075) | 0.0046 (-0.0025, 0.012) |
| -9 | -0.0017 (-0.0055, 0.0022) | -0.0052 (-0.011, 0.00013) | 0.00081 (-0.0076, 0.0093) | 0.0065 (-0.00072, 0.014) |
| -8 | -0.0018 (-0.0056, 0.0020) | -0.0055 (-0.011, -0.00026) | 0.00065 (-0.0078, 0.0091) | 0.0041 (-0.0030, 0.011) |
| -7 | -0.0022 (-0.0060, 0.0016) | -0.0051 (-0.010, 0.00026) | 0.0014 (-0.0070, 0.0099) | 0.0076 (0.00031, 0.015) |
| -6 | 0.00059 (-0.0033, 0.0044) | -0.0043 (-0.0096, 0.00099) | 0.0066 (-0.0021, 0.015) | 0.0052 (-0.0020, 0.012) |
| -5 | -0.00075 (-0.0046, 0.0031) | -0.0028 (-0.0082, 0.0025) | 0.0082 (-0.00062, 0.017) | 0.0021 (-0.0049, 0.0092) |
| -4 | -0.00093 (-0.0047, 0.0029) | -0.0031 (-0.0084, 0.0022) | 0.0090 (0.00016, 0.018) | 0.0024 (-0.0047, 0.0094) |
| -3 | -0.00035 (-0.0042, 0.0035) | -0.0049 (-0.010, 0.00029) | 0.0069 (-0.0018, 0.016) | 0.0069 (-0.00030, 0.014) |
| -2 | 0.00050 (-0.0033, 0.0043) | -0.0072 (-0.012, -0.0020) | 0.010 (0.0011, 0.019) | 0.0061 (-0.0012, 0.013) |
| -1 | -0.00055 (-0.0044, 0.0033) | -0.0037 (-0.0090, 0.0016) | 0.0064 (-0.0023, 0.015) | 0.0037 (-0.0034, 0.011) |
| 0 | -0.00049 (-0.0043, 0.0034) | -0.0073 (-0.012, -0.0022) | 0.0014 (-0.0074, 0.010) | 0.0059 (-0.0014, 0.013) |
| 1 | -0.00044 (-0.0043, 0.0034) | -0.0049 (-0.010, 0.00032) | 0.0061 (-0.0031, 0.015) | 0.0081 (0.00058, 0.016) |
| 2 | -0.0011 (-0.0050, 0.0028) | -0.0062 (-0.011, -0.00099) | 0.0051 (-0.0041, 0.014) | 0.0049 (-0.0026, 0.012) |
| 3 | -0.0012 (-0.0051, 0.0027) | -0.0055 (-0.011, -0.00030) | 0.011 (0.0019, 0.021) | 0.0018 (-0.0056, 0.0092) |
| 4 | 0.00042 (-0.0035, 0.0043) | -0.0052 (-0.010, 0.000083) | 0.013 (0.0035, 0.023) | 0.0060 (-0.0016, 0.014) |
| 5 | -0.00045 (-0.0043, 0.0035) | -0.0083 (-0.013, -0.0031) | 0.013 (0.0035, 0.023) | 0.0053 (-0.0024, 0.013) |
| 6 | 0.00014 (-0.0038, 0.0041) | -0.011 (-0.016, -0.0055) | 0.012 (0.0020, 0.021) | 0.0022 (-0.0054, 0.0098) |
| 7 | -0.00045 (-0.0044, 0.0035) | -0.0088 (-0.014, -0.0035) | 0.010 (0.00049, 0.020) | 0.00036 (-0.0073, 0.0080) |
| 8 | -0.00065 (-0.0046, 0.0033) | -0.010 (-0.016, -0.0052) | 0.012 (0.0022, 0.022) | -0.0020 (-0.0097, 0.0056) |
| 9 | -0.00079 (-0.0048, 0.0032) | -0.0082 (-0.013, -0.0029) | 0.0071 (-0.0026, 0.017) | 0.0012 (-0.0067, 0.0091) |
| 10 | 0.0014 (-0.0027, 0.0054) | -0.0075 (-0.013, -0.0022) | 0.0094 (-0.00052, 0.019) | 0.0047 (-0.0034, 0.013) |
| 11 | 0.00048 (-0.0036, 0.0046) | -0.0081 (-0.013, -0.0027) | 0.0066 (-0.0033, 0.017) | 0.0039 (-0.0043, 0.012) |
| 12 | 0.00015 (-0.0039, 0.0042) | -0.0079 (-0.013, -0.0025) | 0.0021 (-0.0077, 0.012) | 0.0022 (-0.0062, 0.011) |
| 13 | 0.0010 (-0.0031, 0.0051) | -0.0069 (-0.012, -0.0014) | 0.010 (0.000015, 0.021) | 0.0010 (-0.0074, 0.0095) |
| 14 | -0.00035 (-0.0045, 0.0038) | -0.0064 (-0.012, -0.00084) | 0.0090 (-0.0013, 0.019) | 0.00026 (-0.0082, 0.0088) |
| 15 | -0.0015 (-0.0057, 0.0026) | -0.0053 (-0.011, 0.00035) | 0.0026 (-0.0076, 0.013) | 0.00037 (-0.0083, 0.0091) |
Source: Nicholas, Langa, Bynum, and Hsu (2020). Plotted coefficients are regression coefficients representing the percentage point (pp) change in rates of missed payments relative to Medicare beneficiaries who are never diagnosed with each of the health conditions. These serve as falsification tests for Figure 1a. Vertical lines represent 95% confidence intervals. Data sources: FRBNY CCP/Equifax and Medicare Beneficiary Summary File, 1999-2018.
Figure 2b. In contrast to ADRD (Figure 1b), beneficiaries who develop other health conditions do not exhibit systematically elevated subprime credit scores (Equifax Risk Scores) before or after diagnosis
Subprime Credit Score
| Quarters before/after Diagnosis | Arthritis | Glaucoma | Heart Attack | Hip Fracture |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -28 | -0.0043 (-0.0086, 0.000025) | -0.0011 (-0.0072, 0.0050) | -0.00031 (-0.0094, 0.0088) | -0.0027 (-0.0098, 0.0043) |
| -27 | -0.0040 (-0.0083, 0.00024) | -0.0014 (-0.0074, 0.0046) | 0.0038 (-0.0055, 0.013) | -0.0030 (-0.0099, 0.0040) |
| -26 | -0.0026 (-0.0069, 0.0016) | -0.0033 (-0.0092, 0.0027) | 0.0028 (-0.0064, 0.012) | -0.00076 (-0.0077, 0.0062) |
| -25 | -0.0017 (-0.0059, 0.0025) | -0.0019 (-0.0078, 0.0040) | 0.0015 (-0.0075, 0.010) | -0.00083 (-0.0078, 0.0061) |
| -24 | -0.00055 (-0.0048, 0.0037) | -0.0010 (-0.0069, 0.0049) | 0.00097 (-0.0079, 0.0099) | -0.0029 (-0.0097, 0.0039) |
| -23 | -0.0037 (-0.0079, 0.00049) | -0.0031 (-0.0089, 0.0027) | 0.0019 (-0.0070, 0.011) | 0.00011 (-0.0069, 0.0071) |
| -22 | -0.0021 (-0.0063, 0.0020) | -0.0026 (-0.0084, 0.0031) | 0.0050 (-0.0039, 0.014) | -0.00046 (-0.0074, 0.0065) |
| -21 | -0.0029 (-0.0070, 0.0012) | -0.0045 (-0.010, 0.0012) | 0.0045 (-0.0044, 0.013) | -0.0017 (-0.0085, 0.0051) |
| -20 | -0.0010 (-0.0051, 0.0031) | -0.0021 (-0.0078, 0.0036) | 0.0013 (-0.0073, 0.0100) | -0.0014 (-0.0081, 0.0054) |
| -19 | -0.00061 (-0.0047, 0.0035) | -0.0031 (-0.0088, 0.0025) | 0.0070 (-0.0019, 0.016) | -0.0053 (-0.012, 0.0013) |
| -18 | 0.00091 (-0.0032, 0.0050) | -0.0032 (-0.0088, 0.0023) | 0.0040 (-0.0047, 0.013) | -0.0027 (-0.0094, 0.0040) |
| -17 | -0.00079 (-0.0048, 0.0032) | -0.0040 (-0.0095, 0.0016) | 0.0056 (-0.0031, 0.014) | -0.0031 (-0.0097, 0.0036) |
| -16 | -0.00067 (-0.0047, 0.0033) | -0.0037 (-0.0092, 0.0018) | 0.0065 (-0.0022, 0.015) | -0.0038 (-0.010, 0.0027) |
| -15 | 0.00095 (-0.0031, 0.0050) | -0.0043 (-0.0098, 0.0011) | 0.0048 (-0.0038, 0.013) | -0.0056 (-0.012, 0.00082) |
| -14 | 0.0024 (-0.0017, 0.0064) | -0.0043 (-0.0097, 0.0012) | 0.0032 (-0.0054, 0.012) | -0.0057 (-0.012, 0.00064) |
| -13 | 0.0019 (-0.0021, 0.0059) | -0.0051 (-0.011, 0.00033) | 0.0014 (-0.0070, 0.0097) | -0.0039 (-0.010, 0.0025) |
| -12 | 0.00086 (-0.0031, 0.0048) | -0.0085 (-0.014, -0.0032) | 0.0026 (-0.0058, 0.011) | -0.0024 (-0.0090, 0.0041) |
| -11 | 0.0011 (-0.0029, 0.0051) | -0.0083 (-0.014, -0.0030) | 0.0035 (-0.0050, 0.012) | -0.00032 (-0.0070, 0.0063) |
| -10 | 0.0025 (-0.0014, 0.0064) | -0.0063 (-0.012, -0.00099) | 0.0029 (-0.0055, 0.011) | -0.0030 (-0.0095, 0.0034) |
| -9 | 0.0028 (-0.0011, 0.0067) | -0.0070 (-0.012, -0.0017) | 0.0043 (-0.0041, 0.013) | -0.0022 (-0.0087, 0.0043) |
| -8 | 0.0020 (-0.0019, 0.0059) | -0.0087 (-0.014, -0.0036) | 0.0035 (-0.0048, 0.012) | -0.00026 (-0.0069, 0.0063) |
| -7 | 0.0014 (-0.0025, 0.0052) | -0.0075 (-0.013, -0.0024) | 0.0061 (-0.0022, 0.015) | 0.00021 (-0.0064, 0.0068) |
| -6 | 0.00053 (-0.0033, 0.0044) | -0.0080 (-0.013, -0.0029) | 0.0076 (-0.00083, 0.016) | 0.00027 (-0.0064, 0.0069) |
| -5 | -0.00082 (-0.0046, 0.0030) | -0.0083 (-0.013, -0.0032) | 0.0079 (-0.00060, 0.016) | -0.0023 (-0.0088, 0.0043) |
| -4 | -0.0019 (-0.0057, 0.0020) | -0.0084 (-0.013, -0.0033) | 0.0092 (0.00070, 0.018) | -0.0024 (-0.0089, 0.0041) |
| -3 | -0.00032 (-0.0041, 0.0035) | -0.0074 (-0.013, -0.0023) | 0.011 (0.0025, 0.020) | 0.00092 (-0.0057, 0.0076) |
| -2 | -0.00031 (-0.0041, 0.0035) | -0.0074 (-0.013, -0.0023) | 0.012 (0.0035, 0.021) | 0.00069 (-0.0060, 0.0074) |
| -1 | -0.00013 (-0.0040, 0.0037) | -0.0059 (-0.011, -0.00080) | 0.0073 (-0.0012, 0.016) | 0.0050 (-0.0019, 0.012) |
| 0 | -0.0012 (-0.0051, 0.0026) | -0.0072 (-0.012, -0.0022) | 0.0074 (-0.0013, 0.016) | 0.0061 (-0.00089, 0.013) |
| 1 | 0.0011 (-0.0028, 0.0050) | -0.0058 (-0.011, -0.00073) | 0.012 (0.0028, 0.021) | 0.0043 (-0.0028, 0.011) |
| 2 | 0.00084 (-0.0031, 0.0047) | -0.0079 (-0.013, -0.0028) | 0.0077 (-0.0013, 0.017) | 0.0061 (-0.0011, 0.013) |
| 3 | 0.00020 (-0.0037, 0.0041) | -0.0058 (-0.011, -0.00064) | 0.011 (0.0019, 0.020) | 0.0053 (-0.0019, 0.012) |
| 4 | 0.0011 (-0.0028, 0.0050) | -0.0058 (-0.011, -0.00060) | 0.010 (0.0010, 0.019) | 0.0059 (-0.0014, 0.013) |
| 5 | -0.000047 (-0.0040, 0.0039) | -0.0072 (-0.012, -0.0021) | 0.0076 (-0.0016, 0.017) | 0.0063 (-0.0011, 0.014) |
| 6 | 0.0015 (-0.0024, 0.0055) | -0.0065 (-0.012, -0.0013) | 0.0069 (-0.0023, 0.016) | 0.0039 (-0.0034, 0.011) |
| 7 | -0.00011 (-0.0041, 0.0038) | -0.0068 (-0.012, -0.0017) | 0.010 (0.00071, 0.020) | 0.0062 (-0.0013, 0.014) |
| 8 | 0.0010 (-0.0029, 0.0050) | -0.0078 (-0.013, -0.0026) | 0.0064 (-0.0029, 0.016) | 0.0013 (-0.0060, 0.0087) |
| 9 | 0.00062 (-0.0034, 0.0046) | -0.0090 (-0.014, -0.0039) | 0.0050 (-0.0042, 0.014) | 0.00050 (-0.0069, 0.0079) |
| 10 | 0.00094 (-0.0031, 0.0050) | -0.0073 (-0.013, -0.0021) | 0.010 (0.00061, 0.020) | 0.00082 (-0.0067, 0.0084) |
| 11 | 0.0022 (-0.0019, 0.0063) | -0.0065 (-0.012, -0.0013) | 0.0088 (-0.00078, 0.018) | 0.0013 (-0.0064, 0.0089) |
| 12 | 0.00089 (-0.0032, 0.0050) | -0.0063 (-0.012, -0.0011) | 0.0078 (-0.0018, 0.017) | -0.0028 (-0.010, 0.0048) |
| 13 | 0.0014 (-0.0027, 0.0055) | -0.0053 (-0.011, 0.0000043) | 0.010 (0.00050, 0.020) | -0.0040 (-0.012, 0.0037) |
| 14 | 0.00088 (-0.0032, 0.0050) | -0.0064 (-0.012, -0.0011) | 0.0066 (-0.0032, 0.016) | -0.0052 (-0.013, 0.0024) |
| 15 | -0.00015 (-0.0043, 0.0040) | -0.0042 (-0.0096, 0.0012) | 0.0030 (-0.0067, 0.013) | -0.0062 (-0.014, 0.0014) |
Source: Nicholas, Langa, Bynum, and Hsu (2020). Plotted coefficients are regression coefficients representing the percentage point change in rates of subprime credit scores (Equifax Risk Scores) relative to Medicare beneficiaries who are never diagnosed with each of the health conditions. Vertical lines represent 95% confidence intervals. These serve as falsification tests for Figure 1b. Data sources: FRBNY CCP/Equifax and Medicare Beneficiary Summary File, 1999-2018.
Figure 3. Patterns of payment delinquency and subprime credit scores (Equifax Risk Scores) for beneficiaries who eventually developed ADRD are stronger in census tracts with below-median education
| Quarters before/after Diagnosis | ADRD: Less Education Payment Delinquency | ADRD: More Education Payment Delinquency | ADRD: Less Education Subprime Credit Score | ADRD: More Education Subprime Credit Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -28 | 0.004 (-0.001, 0.010) | 0.001 (-0.003, 0.005) | 0.006 (0.001, 0.012) | -0.001 (-0.005, 0.003) |
| -27 | 0.007 (0.002, 0.012) | 0.001 (-0.003, 0.005) | 0.007 (0.002, 0.013) | 0.000 (-0.004, 0.004) |
| -26 | 0.008 (0.003, 0.014) | 0.000 (-0.004, 0.004) | 0.009 (0.004, 0.015) | 0.000 (-0.004, 0.004) |
| -25 | 0.006 (0.001, 0.012) | 0.000 (-0.004, 0.004) | 0.008 (0.002, 0.013) | -0.001 (-0.005, 0.003) |
| -24 | 0.006 (0.001, 0.011) | 0.003 (-0.001, 0.007) | 0.007 (0.001, 0.012) | 0.000 (-0.004, 0.004) |
| -23 | 0.008 (0.002, 0.013) | 0.002 (-0.002, 0.006) | 0.007 (0.002, 0.013) | -0.001 (-0.004, 0.003) |
| -22 | 0.007 (0.001, 0.012) | 0.001 (-0.003, 0.005) | 0.008 (0.003, 0.014) | -0.001 (-0.005, 0.003) |
| -21 | 0.009 (0.004, 0.015) | 0.000 (-0.004, 0.004) | 0.010 (0.004, 0.015) | 0.000 (-0.004, 0.004) |
| -20 | 0.008 (0.002, 0.013) | 0.002 (-0.002, 0.006) | 0.008 (0.002, 0.013) | 0.000 (-0.004, 0.004) |
| -19 | 0.009 (0.003, 0.014) | 0.003 (-0.001, 0.007) | 0.008 (0.003, 0.014) | 0.001 (-0.003, 0.005) |
| -18 | 0.008 (0.002, 0.013) | 0.001 (-0.003, 0.006) | 0.009 (0.003, 0.014) | 0.001 (-0.003, 0.005) |
| -17 | 0.008 (0.002, 0.013) | 0.001 (-0.004, 0.005) | 0.008 (0.002, 0.013) | 0.002 (-0.002, 0.006) |
| -16 | 0.007 (0.002, 0.013) | 0.000 (-0.004, 0.004) | 0.008 (0.002, 0.013) | 0.001 (-0.003, 0.005) |
| -15 | 0.006 (0.001, 0.012) | 0.002 (-0.002, 0.006) | 0.006 (0.000, 0.011) | 0.002 (-0.002, 0.006) |
| -14 | 0.008 (0.002, 0.014) | 0.002 (-0.002, 0.006) | 0.005 (-0.001, ,0.011) | 0.003 (-0.001, 0.007) |
| -13 | 0.008 (0.002, 0.013) | 0.002 (-0.002, 0.007) | 0.006 (-0.000, ,0.011) | 0.002 (-0.002, 0.006) |
| -12 | 0.007 (0.001, 0.012) | 0.002 (-0.002, 0.006) | 0.004 (-0.001, ,0.010) | 0.002 (-0.002, 0.006) |
| -11 | 0.005 (-0.000, 0.011) | 0.003 (-0.001, 0.008) | 0.004 (-0.002, ,0.010) | 0.003 (-0.001, 0.007) |
| -10 | 0.007 (0.001, 0.012) | 0.006 (0.002, 0.010) | 0.007 (0.001, 0.013) | 0.003 (-0.001, 0.007) |
| -9 | 0.006 (0.000, 0.012) | 0.006 (0.002, 0.010) | 0.005 (-0.000, ,0.011) | 0.003 (-0.001, 0.007) |
| -8 | 0.008 (0.002, 0.013) | 0.003 (-0.001, 0.007) | 0.008 (0.002, 0.013) | 0.003 (-0.001, 0.007) |
| -7 | 0.007 (0.001, 0.012) | 0.003 (-0.001, 0.007) | 0.008 (0.002, 0.014) | 0.004 (-0.000, 0.008) |
| -6 | 0.006 (0.000, 0.012) | 0.002 (-0.003, 0.006) | 0.007 (0.001, 0.013) | 0.003 (-0.001, 0.007) |
| -5 | 0.007 (0.001, 0.013) | 0.002 (-0.002, 0.006) | 0.007 (0.002, 0.013) | 0.002 (-0.002, 0.006) |
| -4 | 0.007 (0.002, 0.013) | 0.005 (0.001, 0.010) | 0.007 (0.001, 0.013) | 0.005 (0.001, 0.009) |
| -3 | 0.009 (0.004, 0.015) | 0.006 (0.001, 0.010) | 0.006 (0.000, 0.012) | 0.005 (0.001, 0.010) |
| -2 | 0.011 (0.005, 0.017) | 0.005 (0.001, 0.009) | 0.008 (0.002, 0.014) | 0.003 (-0.001, 0.007) |
| -1 | 0.011 (0.005, 0.017) | 0.006 (0.002, 0.010) | 0.010 (0.004, 0.016) | 0.004 (-0.000, 0.008) |
| 0 | 0.012 (0.006, 0.018) | 0.007 (0.003, 0.012) | 0.009 (0.004, 0.015) | 0.004 (-0.000, 0.008) |
| 1 | 0.011 (0.005, 0.017) | 0.010 (0.005, 0.015) | 0.010 (0.004, 0.015) | 0.006 (0.001, 0.010) |
| 2 | 0.012 (0.006, 0.018) | 0.012 (0.007, 0.016) | 0.012 (0.006, 0.018) | 0.008 (0.004, 0.012) |
| 3 | 0.018 (0.011, 0.024) | 0.011 (0.007, 0.016) | 0.014 (0.008, 0.020) | 0.008 (0.004, 0.013) |
| 4 | 0.013 (0.007, 0.019) | 0.010 (0.005, 0.014) | 0.010 (0.004, 0.016) | 0.007 (0.003, 0.011) |
| 5 | 0.016 (0.009, 0.022) | 0.011 (0.006, 0.015) | 0.014 (0.008, 0.020) | 0.007 (0.003, 0.011) |
| 6 | 0.015 (0.009, 0.021) | 0.010 (0.005, 0.015) | 0.013 (0.007, 0.019) | 0.006 (0.002, 0.010) |
| 7 | 0.013 (0.007, 0.020) | 0.009 (0.004, 0.014) | 0.013 (0.007, 0.019) | 0.006 (0.001, 0.010) |
| 8 | 0.012 (0.005, 0.018) | 0.010 (0.005, 0.015) | 0.011 (0.005, 0.017) | 0.006 (0.001, 0.010) |
| 9 | 0.013 (0.007, 0.020) | 0.008 (0.003, 0.013) | 0.013 (0.007, 0.019) | 0.006 (0.002, 0.011) |
| 10 | 0.010 (0.004, 0.016) | 0.006 (0.001, 0.011) | 0.011 (0.004, 0.017) | 0.005 (0.001, 0.009) |
| 11 | 0.013 (0.006, 0.019) | 0.008 (0.004, 0.013) | 0.011 (0.005, 0.017) | 0.004 (-0.000, 0.009) |
| 12 | 0.013 (0.007, 0.020) | 0.007 (0.002, 0.012) | 0.011 (0.005, 0.017) | 0.003 (-0.002, 0.007) |
| 13 | 0.011 (0.005, 0.018) | 0.007 (0.002, 0.012) | 0.010 (0.004, 0.016) | 0.000 (-0.004, 0.005) |
| 14 | 0.010 (0.004, 0.017) | 0.005 (0.001, 0.010) | 0.008 (0.002, 0.015) | 0.000 (-0.005, 0.004) |
| 15 | 0.009 (0.003, 0.016) | 0.005 (0.000, 0.010) | 0.007 (0.000, 0.013) | -0.001 (-0.005, 0.003) |
Source: Nicholas, Langa, Bynum, and Hsu (2020). Plots show percentage point (pp) change in payment delinquency and subprime credit scores (Equifax Risk Scores), relative to Medicare beneficiaries never diagnosed with ADRD, for less educated census tracts (left) and more educated census tracts (right). Vertical lines indicate 95% confidence intervals. Data sources: FRBNY CCP/Equifax and Medicare Beneficiary Summary File, 1999-2018; American Community Survey, 2010.
Last Update:
December 03, 2020