Do Negative Interest Rates Explain Low Profitability of European Banks? Accessible Data

Figure 1: Interest Rates, Net Interest Margins, Return on Assets, and Decomposition

(a) 3–month Sovereign Yields

Percent

Year 25th Percentile 50th Percentile 75th Percentile
2007 3.97 4.00 4.10
2008 3.76 3.85 4.07
2009 0.57 0.86 1.34
2010 0.45 0.76 1.52
2011 0.74 1.08 2.28
2012 0.11 0.57 1.85
2013 0.07 0.27 0.67
2014 0.07 0.15 0.34
2015 -0.26 -0.15 -0.02
2016 -0.64 -0.48 -0.11
2017 -0.78 -0.64 -0.44
(b) Net Interest Margins

Percent

Year 25th Percentile 50th Percentile 75th Percentile
2007 1.28 1.77 2.69
2008 1.40 1.66 2.83
2009 1.31 1.61 2.61
2010 1.22 1.66 2.46
2011 1.19 1.65 2.54
2012 1.14 1.52 2.33
2013 1.21 1.54 2.21
2014 1.21 1.59 2.41
2015 1.05 1.53 2.47
2016 1.15 1.41 2.33
2017 1.19 1.54 2.06
(c) Return on Assets

Percent

Year 25th Percentile 50th Percentile 75th Percentile
2007 0.60 0.94 1.45
2008 0.12 0.44 0.89
2009 0.10 0.45 0.58
2010 0.09 0.41 0.51
2011 -0.31 -0.02 0.42
2012 -0.43 0.16 0.34
2013 -0.22 0.29 0.48
2014 0.02 0.42 0.53
2015 0.26 0.47 0.62
2016 0.30 0.53 0.72
2017 0.31 0.50 0.85
(d) Decomposition of Differences Between U.S. and European NIMs and ROAs

Percent

  NIM ROA
Macroeconomic Factors 0% 2%
Interest Rates 18% 28%
Bank/Banking System Specific Factors 82% 70%

Note: Legend entries appear in order from bottom to top.

Panel (a) shows the 25th percentile, median, and 75th percentile of the three-month sovereign yields over our sample period. Panel (b) shows the 25th percentile, median, and 75th percentile of country averages of NIM over our sample period. Panel (c) shows the 25th percentile, median, and 75th percentile of country averages of ROA over our sample period. For panel (d), the estimated difference between European and U.S. bank NIMs is 191 bps and the estimated difference between European and US bank ROAs is 77 bps. Panels (a)-(c) include banks from the following countries: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and United Kingdom. U.S. data are from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’ FRED database.

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Last Update: November 27, 2019