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Downside and Upside Economic Uncertainty, Accessible Data

Figure 1. The Upside and Downside Components of Real Economic Uncertainty

Figure 1 is a time series chart spanning from 2020 to mid-2025, showing Real Economic Uncertainty (REU) decomposed into upside and downside components. The chart displays a black line representing total REU, with stacked blue and orange bars showing the upside and downside components, respectively.

The chart shows that:

  • REU peaked dramatically during early 2020 at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, reaching about 5 standard deviations above its historical mean
  • After this initial spike, uncertainty gradually declined but remained above its historical average throughout the period
  • There was a moderate increase in REU starting around mid-2024
  • Throughout the entire period, the upside (blue) and downside (orange) components each contribute approximately 50% to total uncertainty
  • By mid-2025, REU remains at approximately 1 standard deviation above its historical mean
  • The balance between better-than-expected (upside) and worse-than-expected (downside) components remains relatively stable throughout the period
Column Meaning
date_decimal_year X-axis date used in the figure (decimal year = YYYY + M/12 so 2015 is 2014 DEC)
total_real_upside_z Total Real Economic Uncertainty: upside bar series, plotted from Gz(3).good
total_real_downside_z Total Real Economic Uncertainty: downside bar series, plotted from Gz(3).bad
total_real_uncertainty_z Total Real Economic Uncertainty: black line, plotted from Gz(3).total
date_decimal_year total_real_upside_z total_real_downside_z total_real_uncertainty_z
2019.5 0.037195402 0.03191195 0.069107353
2019.583333 0.216367233 0.062955206 0.279322439
2019.666667 0.132253046 0.047952905 0.180205951
2019.75 0.141401698 0.089727283 0.231128981
2019.833333 0.174717046 0.214463097 0.389180143
2019.916667 0.363478798 0.268989834 0.632468632
2020 0.636376461 0.5223565 1.158732961
2020.083333 1.178719533 0.716006078 1.894725611
2020.166667 0.651944017 1.432529193 2.08447321
2020.25 1.258425589 1.266689326 2.525114915
2020.333333 1.430474457 1.644273539 3.074747995
2020.416667 2.217087262 1.523946443 3.741033705
2020.5 2.474498743 2.033223861 4.507722603
2020.583333 2.363012209 2.032348651 4.39536086
2020.666667 2.035936211 2.362758158 4.398694369
2020.75 1.688972727 1.962121656 3.651094383
2020.833333 1.028401305 2.129104677 3.157505982
2020.916667 1.569593541 1.242322126 2.811915667
2021 0.909979715 2.027864293 2.937844009
2021.083333 0.805621338 2.497643817 3.303265155
2021.166667 1.945101146 1.281377048 3.226478193
2021.25 1.553034054 1.627760638 3.180794692
2021.333333 1.712553533 1.115332959 2.827886491
2021.416667 1.577210597 1.221275848 2.798486445
2021.5 1.727134327 1.417162024 3.144296352
2021.583333 1.900579992 1.472728437 3.373308429
2021.666667 2.295508337 1.336330172 3.631838509
2021.75 0.932087307 2.835085727 3.767173033
2021.833333 1.341559282 2.451935959 3.793495241
2021.916667 1.636016464 1.073471196 2.70948766
2022 1.33194839 1.158588194 2.490536584
2022.083333 1.040632426 2.152540859 3.193173285
2022.166667 1.225243596 1.723780304 2.9490239
2022.25 1.004280052 1.702063358 2.70634341
2022.333333 1.158738983 1.581193347 2.739932329
2022.416667 1.359922336 1.254100233 2.614022569
2022.5 1.043650287 1.264268043 2.307918329
2022.583333 0.989475303 1.293241522 2.282716825
2022.666667 1.356422427 0.728237132 2.08465956
2022.75 0.539577241 1.20096044 1.740537681
2022.833333 0.570005058 1.259905085 1.829910143
2022.916667 1.345592853 0.503089697 1.848682551
2023 0.547741431 1.073906379 1.62164781
2023.083333 0.675304897 1.373277716 2.048582613
2023.166667 0.996853933 0.476918777 1.47377271
2023.25 0.486216281 0.850979029 1.33719531
2023.333333 0.307145292 0.730724787 1.03787008
2023.416667 0.404605571 0.402832624 0.807438196
2023.5 0.178666966 0.365590686 0.544257652
2023.583333 0.228921487 0.345994402 0.574915889
2023.666667 0.352124953 0.297223628 0.64934858
2023.75 0.350999038 0.432119825 0.783118863
2023.833333 0.921891112 0.62159261 1.543483722
2023.916667 0.536433645 0.511710183 1.048143828
2024 0.268549283 0.542738449 0.811287732
2024.083333 0.458095052 0.521609773 0.979704825
2024.166667 0.368525508 0.20894959 0.577475098
2024.25 0.089803952 0.174468798 0.26427275
2024.333333 0.060458074 0.120830399 0.181288473
2024.416667 0.076552584 0.079215247 0.155767831
2024.5 -0.008620993 -0.014188778 -0.02280977
2024.583333 -0.007437469 -0.010743466 -0.018180935
2024.666667 0.020555987 0.018146759 0.038702747
2024.75 0.05434486 0.12515399 0.17949885
2024.833333 0.156827006 0.455890419 0.612717425
2024.916667 0.233110324 0.145436077 0.3785464
2025 0.150773754 0.138191721 0.288965475
2025.083333 0.13680723 0.51899821 0.65580544
2025.166667 0.243157418 0.31209894 0.555256358
2025.25 0.271929044 0.243038142 0.514967186
2025.333333 0.384437337 0.438822576 0.823259913
2025.416667 0.27395937 0.328152524 0.602111894
2025.5 0 0.313488577 0.313488577

Note: The figure plots the total REU (the black contour line) and its upside and downside components in blue (bottom) and orange (top) bars, respectively. The REU is standardized to have zero mean and unit standard deviation over the sample 1963:01 to 2025:06.

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Figure 2. The Upside and Downside of Sectoral Economic Uncertainty

Figure 2 consists of two side-by-side time series charts, both spanning from 2020 to mid-2025. Each chart shows a black line representing uncertainty with stacked blue and orange bars showing the upside and downside components, respectively.

Left panel (Trade Flow Uncertainty):

  • Shows trade-specific economic uncertainty with a substantial increase in 2025
  • The recent rise is dominated by upside uncertainty (blue bars), indicating trade flows have been significantly better than forecasted
  • The upside component accounts for approximately 75% of total trade uncertainty in 2025
  • Trade uncertainty shows more volatility compared to non-trade sectors throughout the period
  • By mid-2025, trade uncertainty reaches approximately 2 standard deviations above its historical mean

Right panel (Non-Trade Economic Uncertainty):

  • Shows uncertainty for all economic sectors except trade
  • Non-trade uncertainty was extremely high during the early COVID-19 period with balanced upside and downside components
  • It declined steadily until reaching near-historical average levels by mid-2024
  • Since mid-2024, both upside and downside components have remained small and roughly balanced
  • By mid-2025, non-trade uncertainty is only slightly above its historical average
  • The chart demonstrates that recent overall economic uncertainty is not driven by non-trade sectors

Both figures are standardized to have zero mean and unit standard deviation over the sample period 1963:01 to 2025:06.

Column Meaning
date_decimal_year X-axis date used in the figure (decimal year = YYYY + M/12 so 2015 is 2014 DEC)
trade_flow_upside_z Trade Flow Uncertainty: upside bar series, plotted from Gz(1).good
trade_flow_downside_z Trade Flow Uncertainty: downside bar series, plotted from Gz(1).bad
trade_flow_uncertainty_z Trade Flow Uncertainty: black line, plotted from Gz(1).total
other_real_upside_z Other Real Economic Uncertainty: upside bar series, plotted from Gz(2).good
other_real_downside_z Other Real Economic Uncertainty: downside bar series, plotted from Gz(2).bad
other_real_uncertainty_z Other Real Economic Uncertainty: black line, plotted from Gz(2).total
date_decimal_year trade_flow_upside_z trade_flow_downside_z trade_flow_uncertainty_z other_real_upside_z other_real_downside_z other_real_uncertainty_z
2019.5 0.450836891 0.747052651 1.197889542 0.031220493 0.025828296 0.057048789
2019.583333 1.089446426 0.22305016 1.312496586 0.248373776 0.060266185 0.308639961
2019.666667 1.372002727 0.076969258 1.448971985 0.139141717 0.052463654 0.191605372
2019.75 1.242071692 0.266505754 1.508577446 0.15276493 0.093224846 0.245989776
2019.833333 0.414217754 1.306905086 1.72112284 0.194939853 0.228922254 0.423862107
2019.916667 0.449105621 1.601683064 2.050788685 0.423881494 0.27971267 0.703594164
2020 1.126546796 1.479193348 2.605740144 0.723880357 0.561968226 1.285848583
2020.083333 1.760836081 1.810986837 3.571822919 1.288223857 0.770866045 2.059089902
2020.166667 1.414756429 2.087000556 3.501756985 0.686120178 1.590261671 2.276381849
2020.25 2.457440914 0.913247358 3.370688272 1.378614545 1.427395206 2.806009751
2020.333333 0 3.096328748 3.096328748 1.651886 1.791742986 3.443628986
2020.416667 1.815245689 1.133266865 2.948512555 2.528345673 1.660747543 4.189093216
2020.5 0.957070032 1.90871609 2.865786122 2.795144881 2.177706889 4.97285177
2020.583333 1.004988624 1.308283351 2.313271975 2.591121431 2.210837489 4.80195892
2020.666667 0.740783363 1.376539441 2.117322804 2.317891798 2.630943205 4.948835003
2020.75 1.37522999 0.546849826 1.922079816 1.795141747 2.30485748 4.099999227
2020.833333 1.119710221 0.734963704 1.854673925 1.148136414 2.392459115 3.540595529
2020.916667 0.698570049 1.18635919 1.884929239 1.758748967 1.359495739 3.118244706
2021 1.197045741 0.683338476 1.880384217 0.891869281 2.360058215 3.251927496
2021.083333 0.225184569 1.683736335 1.908920904 0.92933334 2.740446584 3.669779924
2021.166667 0.445454352 1.614582413 2.060036764 2.227975095 1.319478845 3.547453941
2021.25 0.400713789 1.744800872 2.145514661 1.659585319 1.760022675 3.419607994
2021.333333 1.606784269 0.596009238 2.202793507 1.814064107 1.132455122 2.946519229
2021.416667 0.644721437 1.877233916 2.521955354 1.653546716 1.221903823 2.875450538
2021.5 0.284241727 2.686653771 2.970895498 1.920813851 1.373849078 3.294662929
2021.583333 0.231461169 3.36478933 3.596250499 2.213188916 1.271887445 3.485076361
2021.666667 2.587645664 0.929496272 3.517141936 2.417643758 1.408555305 3.826199063
2021.75 2.381056161 1.094092943 3.475149104 0.846747641 3.116783804 3.963531445
2021.833333 2.579339079 0.977428409 3.556767488 1.180037049 2.753313148 3.933350197
2021.916667 3.020544273 0.511685392 3.532229665 1.501093462 1.049614081 2.550707543
2022 0.320286005 3.084339998 3.404626003 1.302160017 0.8905486 2.192708617
2022.083333 0.651391375 2.921324768 3.572716142 0.994279821 1.888418108 2.882697929
2022.166667 2.988671624 0.646542731 3.635214355 1.015534462 1.512403403 2.527937864
2022.25 2.93767608 0.691518026 3.629194106 0.629425461 1.582594872 2.212020333
2022.333333 0.230192014 3.273218967 3.503410981 1.100056912 1.099749359 2.199806271
2022.416667 0.948883184 2.461594443 3.410477627 1.118849257 0.924335555 2.043184811
2022.5 2.501097174 0.695177079 3.196274253 0.638809251 1.037531895 1.676341146
2022.583333 0.499393462 2.388455484 2.887848947 0.618745038 0.955043991 1.573789029
2022.666667 2.675757675 0.061344788 2.737102462 0.894624947 0.619205171 1.513830118
2022.75 1.87846059 0.797198338 2.675658928 0.297153979 0.953749958 1.250903937
2022.833333 0.399988538 2.199565301 2.599553839 0.418484565 0.975698713 1.394183278
2022.916667 0.842720161 1.51810139 2.360821551 1.06839891 0.40469445 1.473093361
2023 0.289607403 1.780599303 2.070206706 0.483504637 0.779393251 1.262897888
2023.083333 1.200226486 0.58702431 1.787250796 0.63317026 1.259806832 1.892977092
2023.166667 1.376626825 0.220718219 1.597345044 0.873003503 0.439493897 1.3124974
2023.25 0.082506385 1.413999325 1.49650571 0.437000072 0.767350075 1.204350147
2023.333333 0.870063194 0.548246704 1.418309898 0.199467732 0.66588609 0.865353822
2023.416667 0.619474682 0.67730551 1.296780191 0.312103422 0.314507023 0.626610445
2023.5 0.705844032 0.445872467 1.151716499 0.102912832 0.266046187 0.368959019
2023.583333 0.630574954 0.483474763 1.114049717 0.169266955 0.252423027 0.421689982
2023.666667 0.554894274 0.573432488 1.128326762 0.291260085 0.250648416 0.5419085
2023.75 0.507520883 0.54069986 1.048220743 0.322308642 0.425384939 0.747693581
2023.833333 0.566898095 0.487320986 1.054219081 0.979002415 0.719634081 1.698636496
2023.916667 0.37778872 0.716675035 1.094463754 0.561706301 0.572125505 1.133831806
2024 0.499590055 0.602525998 1.102116053 0.279289143 0.591237693 0.870526835
2024.083333 0.039119085 1.17685217 1.215971256 0.529694908 0.535950269 1.065645177
2024.166667 1.210620217 0.044119968 1.254740185 0.385429047 0.22661696 0.612046007
2024.25 0.01896396 1.145696815 1.164660776 0.095151637 0.17485094 0.270002578
2024.333333 0.465488826 0.650293684 1.11578251 0.056031048 0.126572031 0.18260308
2024.416667 0.430718345 0.677690767 1.108409112 0.087589621 0.093873556 0.181463177
2024.5 0.511036855 0.563574578 1.074611433 -0.008670097 -0.014493337 -0.023163434
2024.583333 0.717810864 0.460293085 1.17810395 -0.011456958 -0.018000704 -0.029457662
2024.666667 0.797348246 0.513141201 1.310489446 0.021786646 0.019739341 0.041525987
2024.75 0.950010914 0.524195942 1.474206857 0.056881083 0.142918922 0.199800005
2024.833333 0.781234313 0.850584603 1.631818916 0.14750566 0.545537006 0.693042665
2024.916667 0.397872858 1.526814349 1.924687206 0.243987185 0.139974092 0.383961277
2025 0.646492395 1.766050682 2.412543076 0.104812414 0.092325889 0.197138303
2025.083333 0.325832127 2.90232922 3.228161347 0.101206045 0.395084611 0.496290657
2025.166667 1.17078454 2.765705279 3.936489819 0.122272319 0.169133111 0.29140543
2025.25 4.22009871 0.763712885 4.983811596 0.064826994 0.065538025 0.130365019
2025.333333 7.041253697 0.57685477 7.618108467 0.098580294 0.15514186 0.253722154
2025.416667 4.652786115 0.845109732 5.497895847 0.098507802 0.150086556 0.248594358
2025.5 0 3.914088794 3.914088794 0 0.088778729 0.088778729

Note: The figure plots the sectoral economic uncertainty (the black contour line), and its upside and downside components in blue (bottom) and orange (top) bars, respectively. The left panel shows trade flow uncertainty, and the right panel shows the aggregate uncertainty from all sectors except trade. Both measures are standardized to have zero mean and unit standard deviation over the sample 1963:01 to 2025:06.

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Last Update: April 01, 2026