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Estimated Quarterly Levels of Bank Lending Standards and Credit Availability, Accessible Data
Figure 1. Estimated Quarterly Levels of the Bank Lending Standards Index
This is a line and bar chart titled “Estimated Quarterly Levels of the Bank Lending Standards Index.” The x-axis measures time in quarters, ranging from Q4 2010 to Q1 2025, with labels for each year from 2011 to 2025. The y-axis measures the net percent of banks which reported levels to be on the tighter or easier end of the range (for the levels of standards) or the net percent of banks which reported that standards have tightened or eased (for the changes in standards). Tighter levels/changes are shown as positive values, while easier levels/changes are shown as negative values, with the overall axis having a range of –60 to 160. The data are annual or quarterly depending on the data series. There are five different data series plotted on the chart. The blue bars, the first series, denote the annually observed levels of bank lending standards in each second quarter. These levels range from -8.8 (modestly easy levels) in Q2 2015 to 72.8 (majorly tight levels) in Q2 2020. Levels are reported to be especially tight in the second quarters of 2011, 2012, 2013, 2020, 2023, and 2024, and around zero (near the midpoint of the range) for second quarters of 2014, 2016, 2019, 2021, and 2022. Levels are easiest in the second quarter of 2015. The black line, the second series, denotes the observed quarterly changes in bank lending standards. These changes range from -37.8 in Q2 2021 (significant easing of standards) to 77.1 (major tightening of standards) in Q2 2020. Standards are generally reported to have eased over the period from 2011 to 2016, either slightly eased or tightened over the period from 2016 to 2020, substantially tightened from Q1 2020 to Q3 2020, substantially eased from Q4 2020 to Q1 2022, and again substantially tightened from Q2 2022 to Q2 2024. Since Q3 2024 they have been relatively unchanged. The red line, the third series, denotes the estimated quarterly levels of bank lending standards based on the MIDAS regression approach. These estimated levels range from -24.0 (significantly easy levels) in Q4 2021 to 86.7 (majorly tight levels) in Q3 2020. Levels are reported to be tight from Q3 2011 to Q2 2013, either somewhat tight or easy from Q3 2013 to Q4 2019, substantially tight from Q1 2020 to Q2 2021, easy from Q3 2021 to Q1 2022, and then again substantially tight since Q4 2022. The orange squares, the fourth series, denote two out-of-sample estimates based on the MIDAS regression approach for the Q2 2023 and Q2 2024. Both out-of-sample estimates are very similar to the observed tight levels (the blue bars) in both quarters. The fifth and final series, the dashed gray line, denotes the estimated quarterly levels of bank lending standards based on the naïve additive approach. This series behaves qualitatively similar as the estimated quarterly levels of bank lending standards based on the MIDAS regression approach (red line). However, it is more both volatile, with values increasing and decreasing more rapidly, and more extreme, with values that are significantly more positive then the MIDAS approach in the years 2020, 2023, and 2024, and significantly more negative in 2015 and 2022.
Figure 2. Estimated Quarterly Levels of Standards for Business Loans
This is a line and bar chart titled “Estimated Quarterly Levels of Standards for Business Loans.” This chart is very similar visually to Figure 1, with the same five series being plotted, but with slightly different values. The x-axis measures time in quarters, ranging from Q4 2010 to Q1 2025, with labels for each year from 2011 to 2025. The y-axis measures the net percent of banks which reported levels to be on the tighter or easier end of the range (for the levels of standards) or the net percent of banks which reported that standards have tightened or eased (for the changes in standards). Tighter levels/changes are shown as positive values, while easier levels/changes are shown as negative values, with the overall axis having a range of –80 to 200. The data are annual or quarterly depending on the data series. There are five different data series plotted on the chart. The blue bars, the first series, denote the annually observed levels of bank lending standards for business loans in each second quarter. These levels range from –31.7 (significantly easy levels) in Q2 2015 to 66.2 (majorly tight levels) in Q2 2020. Levels are reported to be especially tight in the second quarters of 2011, 2012, 2020, 2023, and 2024, and around zero (near the midpoint of the range) for second quarters of 2016, 2017, and 2021. Levels are especially easy in the second quarters of 2013, 2014, 2015, 2018, and 2019. The black line, the second series, denotes the observed quarterly changes in bank lending standards for business loans. These changes range from –31.2 in Q2 2021 (significant easing of standards) to 66.2 (major tightening of standards) in Q2 2020. Standards are generally reported to have eased over the period from Q4 2010 to Q2 2015, either somewhat tightened or somewhat eased over the period from Q3 2015 to Q4 2019, substantially tightened from Q1 2020 to Q3 2020, substantially eased from Q4 2020 to Q1 2022, and again substantially tightened from Q2 2022 to Q2 2024. Since Q3 2024 they have been relatively unchanged. The red line, the third series, denotes the estimated quarterly levels of bank lending standards for business loans based on the MIDAS regression approach. These estimated levels range from -42.3 (significantly easy levels) in Q4 2014 to 84.3 (majorly tight levels) in Q3 2020. While beginning tight in Q3 2011, levels are then reported to be easy or around zero from Q2 2012 to Q4 2019, substantially tight from Q1 2020 to Q2 2021, somewhat easy from Q3 2021 to Q1 2022, and then again substantially tight since Q4 2022. The orange squares, the fourth series, denote two out-of-sample estimates based on the MIDAS regression approach for the Q2 2023 and Q2 2024. The first out-of-sample estimate is about 20 points higher then the observed levels (the blue bars), while the second is very similar to the observed tight levels. The fifth and final series, the dashed gray line, denotes the estimated quarterly levels of bank lending standards based on the naïve additive approach. This series behaves qualitatively similar as the estimated quarterly levels of bank lending standards based on the MIDAS regression approach (red line). However, it is more both volatile, with values increasing and decreasing more rapidly, and more extreme, with values that are more significantly more positive then the MIDAS approach in the years 2020 and 2023 through the present, and significantly more negative across Q2 2013 through Q3 2016.
Figure 3. Estimated Quarterly Levels of Standards for Household Loans
This is a line and bar chart titled “Estimated Quarterly Levels of Standards for Household Loans.” This chart is very similar visually to Figures 1 and 2, with the same five series being plotted, but with slightly different values. The x-axis measures time in quarters, ranging from Q4 2010 to Q1 2025, with labels for each year from 2011 to 2025. The y-axis measures the net percent of banks which reported levels to be on the tighter or easier end of the range (for the levels of standards) or the net percent of banks which reported that standards have tightened or eased (for the changes in standards). Tighter levels/changes are shown as positive values, while easier levels/changes are shown as negative values, with the overall axis having a range of –80 to 200. The data are annual or quarterly depending on the data series. There are five different data series plotted on the chart. The blue bars, the first series, denote the annually observed levels of bank lending standards for household loans in each second quarter. These levels range from –14 (moderately easy levels) in Q2 2022 to 81.7 (majorly tight levels) in Q2 2011. Levels are reported to be generally tight across the sample, especially in the second quarters of 2011, 2012, 2020, and 2024. Levels are less tight in the second quarters of 2014, 2015, 2018, 2019 and 2013, and around zero (near the midpoint of the range) for second quarters of 2016 and 2021, becoming easy in 2022. The black line, the second series, denotes the observed quarterly changes in bank lending standards for household loans. These changes range from –51.6 in Q1 2021 (major easing of standards) to 91.6 (major tightening of standards) in Q2 2020. Standards are generally reported to have eased over the period from Q4 2010 to Q1 2016, either somewhat tightened or somewhat eased over the period from Q2 2016 to Q4 2019, substantially tightened from Q1 2020 to Q3 2020, substantially eased from Q4 2020 to Q1 2022, and again substantially tightened from Q2 2022 to Q2 2024. Since Q3 2024 they have been relatively unchanged or slightly eased. The red line, the third series, denotes the estimated quarterly levels of bank lending standards for household loans based on the MIDAS regression approach. These estimated levels range from –25.2 (significantly easy levels) in Q4 2021 to 83.7 (majorly tight levels) in Q3 2020. Levels began tight in Q3 2011, decreasing but remaining positive until Q2 2016, after which they began to rise before peaking in Q3 2020. Levels became easy Q3 2021 before being tight again Q4 2022 where they have remained. The orange squares, the fourth series, denote two out-of-sample estimates based on the MIDAS regression approach for the Q2 2023 and Q2 2024. Both out-of-sample estimates are very similar to the observed tight levels (the blue bars) in both quarters. The fifth and final series, the dashed gray line, denotes the estimated quarterly levels of bank lending standards based on the naïve additive approach. This series behaves qualitatively similar as the estimated quarterly levels of bank lending standards based on the MIDAS regression approach (red line). However, it is more both volatile, with values increasing and decreasing more rapidly, and more extreme, with values that are more significantly more negative then the MIDAS approach in the years 2013 through 2016, as well as 2021 and 2022, and significantly more positive in 2020 and 2023 through the present.
Figure 4. Estimated Levels of Lending Standards and Core Loan Growth
This is a line chart entitled "Estimated Levels of Lending Standards and Core Loan Growth." The x-axis measures time, ranging from Q1 2011 to Q1 2025, with labels for each year. The left y-axes measures the net percent of banks which reported levels for all loans to be on the tighter or easier end of the range. Tighter levels/changes are shown as positive values, while easier levels/changes are shown as negative values, with the overall axis having a range of –40 to 100. The right y-axis measures loan growth rates, with a range of –10 to just below 30. There are two series plotted on the chart, both quarterly. The first, the red line, shows the same series as the red line in Figure 1, the estimated quarterly levels of bank lending standards based on the MIDAS regression approach. These estimated levels range from -24.0 (significantly easy levels) in Q4 2021 to 86.7 (majorly tight levels) in Q3 2020. Levels are reported to be tight from Q3 2011 to Q2 2013, either somewhat tight or easy from Q3 2013 to Q4 2019, substantially tight from Q1 2020 to Q2 2021, easy from Q3 2021 to Q1 2022, and then again substantially tight since Q4 2022. The second series, the dotted black line, shows quarterly loan growth rates and tends to move inversely with the first. These growth rates range from –8.7 in Q4 2020 to 22.5 in Q2 2020. Starting negative, these values are positive from Q3 2011 onward, increasing to a higher level in Q1 2014 and remaining there through Q1 2020. The values spike to a maximum in Q2 2020 before becoming negative in Q3 2020. The series becomes positive again and rises until Q2 2022, then falling but remaining positive through the present.
Figure 5. Estimated Levels of Business Lending Standards and Business Loan Growth
This is a line chart entitled "Estimated Levels of Business Lending Standards and Business Loan Growth." This chart is very similar to Figure 4. The x-axis measures time, ranging from Q1 2011 to Q1 2025, with labels for each year. The left y-axes measures the net percent of banks which reported levels for business loans to be on the tighter or easier end of the range. Tighter levels/changes are shown as positive values, while easier levels/changes are shown as negative values, with the overall axis having a range of –40 to 100. The right y-axis measures loan growth rates, with a range of –20 to 60. There are two series plotted on the chart, both quarterly. The first, the red line, shows the same series as the red line in Figure 2, the estimated quarterly levels of bank lending standards for business loans based on the MIDAS regression approach. These estimated levels range from -42.3 (significantly easy levels) in Q4 2014 to 84.3 (majorly tight levels) in Q3 2020. While beginning tight in Q3 2011, levels are then reported to be easy or around zero from Q2 2012 to Q4 2019, substantially tight from Q1 2020 to Q2 2021, somewhat easy from Q3 2021 to Q1 2022, and then again substantially tight since Q4 2022. The second series, the dotted black line, shows quarterly loan growth rates and tends to move inversely with the first. These growth rates range from –10.9 in Q4 2020 to 47.9 in Q2 2020. Starting negative, these values are positive from Q3 2011 onward, staying relatively constant around 7%. The values then spike to a maximum in Q2 2020 before becoming negative in Q3 2020. The series becomes positive again in Q4 2021 and rises until Q3 2022, then falling but remaining positive through the present.
Figure 6. Estimated Levels of Business Lending Standards and Household Loan Growth
This is a line chart entitled "Estimated Levels of Business Lending Standards and Household Loan Growth." This chart is very similar to Figures 4 and 5. The x-axis measures time, ranging from Q1 2011 to Q1 2025, with labels for each year. The left y-axes measures the net percent of banks which reported levels for household loans to be on the tighter or easier end of the range. Tighter levels/changes are shown as positive values, while easier levels/changes are shown as negative values, with the overall axis having a range of –40 to 100. The right y-axis measures loan growth rates, with a range of –10 to just above 25. There are two series plotted on the chart, both quarterly. The first, the red line, shows the same series as the red line in Figure 3, the estimated quarterly levels of bank lending standards for household loans based on the MIDAS regression approach. These estimated levels range from –25.2 (significantly easy levels) in Q4 2021 to 83.7 (majorly tight levels) in Q3 2020. Levels began tight in Q3 2011, decreasing but remaining positive until Q2 2016, after which they began to rise before peaking in Q3 2020. Levels became easy Q3 2021 before being tight again Q4 2022 where they have remained. The second series, the dotted black line, shows quarterly loan growth rates and tends to move inversely with the first, although less so then in Figures 4 and 5. These growth rates range from –7.9 in Q2 2020 to 12.7 in Q2 2022. This series is generally negative and close to zero from Q1 2011 through Q1 2014, after which it is consistently positive around 2%. The series drops to become negative in Q2 2020, then rising to become positive in Q3 2021 and peaking in Q2 2022. Values then fell but remained positive through the present.