Accessible Version

Excess Savings during the COVID-19 Pandemic, Accessible Data

Figure 1. Personal Saving Rate

Percent

Quarter Date Actual Log Linear Trend 2015–2019
2015: Q1 7.9 6.937
2015: Q2 7.5 7.011
2015: Q3 7.3 7.085
2015: Q4 7.4 7.159
2016: Q1 7.5 7.233
2016: Q2 6.9 7.307
2016: Q3 6.8 7.381
2016: Q4 6.8 7.455
2017: Q1 7.1 7.529
2017: Q2 7.6 7.603
2017: Q3 7.5 7.677
2017: Q4 6.9 7.751
2018: Q1 7.2 7.825
2018: Q2 7.3 7.899
2018: Q3 7.6 7.973
2018: Q4 8.2 8.047
2019: Q1 9.3 8.121
2019: Q2 8.7 8.195
2019: Q3 8.6 8.269
2019: Q4 8.7 8.343
2020: Q1 10.7 8.417
2020: Q2 26.4 8.491
2020: Q3 16.4 8.565
2020: Q4 13.7 8.639
2021: Q1 20.4 8.713
2021: Q2 10.8 8.787
2021: Q3 9.1 8.861
2021: Q4 7.3 8.935
2022: Q1 4.3 9.009
2022: Q2 3.4 9.083

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, authors’ calculations.

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Figure 2: Major Components of Disposable Personal Income

Billions of Dollars, Annual

Quarter date Disposable Personal Income Compensation of Employees Rental, Interest, and Dividend Income Proprietors' Income Personal Current Transfer Receipts Personal Current Taxes
Actual Log Linear Trend 2015–2019 Actual Log Linear Trend 2015–2019 Actual Log Linear Trend 2015–2019 Actual Log Linear Trend 2015–2019 Actual Log Linear Trend 2015–2019 Actual Log Linear Trend 2015–2019
2015: Q1 13593.175 13397.590 9563.849 9472.354 3043.848 2979.044 1434.904 1387.257 2644.076 2633.220 1904.557 1896.073
2015: Q2 13696.914 13548.590 9666.156 9573.606 3080.983 3019.179 1411.305 1398.899 2682.347 2658.500 1942.962 1910.904
2015: Q3 13809.602 13701.310 9751.718 9675.950 3093.727 3059.856 1423.221 1410.638 2699.135 2684.021 1947.348 1925.852
2015: Q4 13881.428 13855.730 9815.952 9779.378 3118.794 3101.081 1413.820 1422.476 2716.072 2709.789 1964.926 1940.916
2016: Q1 13993.991 14011.890 9851.656 9883.922 3136.792 3142.861 1410.070 1434.413 2745.405 2735.803 1924.590 1956.098
2016: Q2 14058.711 14169.820 9905.216 9989.583 3150.973 3185.205 1409.603 1446.450 2767.716 2762.066 1943.360 1971.398
2016: Q3 14179.606 14329.530 9998.495 10096.360 3177.548 3228.118 1431.046 1458.589 2787.069 2788.582 1972.028 1986.818
2016: Q4 14322.362 14491.040 10109.063 10204.300 3211.856 3271.610 1442.507 1470.829 2807.899 2815.353 1992.920 2002.360
2017: Q1 14547.886 14654.360 10224.281 10313.380 3288.442 3315.685 1484.983 1483.172 2831.434 2842.381 2004.051 2018.022
2017: Q2 14728.572 14819.520 10335.907 10423.620 3354.819 3360.357 1501.382 1495.619 2838.181 2869.668 2012.048 2033.807
2017: Q3 14866.571 14986.560 10478.366 10535.060 3375.578 3405.631 1502.640 1508.169 2869.763 2897.218 2054.840 2049.716
2017: Q4 15021.835 15155.470 10658.933 10647.680 3397.614 3451.514 1529.389 1520.826 2883.361 2925.030 2123.556 2065.749
2018: Q1 15282.158 15326.280 10783.237 10761.490 3426.711 3498.016 1550.119 1533.588 2938.663 2953.111 2072.802 2081.907
2018: Q2 15492.998 15499.030 10890.996 10876.540 3490.857 3545.144 1557.263 1546.458 2965.226 2981.461 2057.743 2098.192
2018: Q3 15714.534 15673.720 11042.931 10992.810 3566.547 3592.907 1571.312 1559.435 2990.084 3010.082 2086.037 2114.604
2018: Q4 15945.823 15850.370 11114.466 11110.310 3684.633 3641.314 1596.087 1572.521 3012.388 3038.981 2083.091 2131.146
2019: Q1 16185.171 16029.010 11329.617 11229.080 3737.222 3690.373 1583.383 1585.718 3105.708 3068.154 2160.189 2147.815
2019: Q2 16283.299 16209.680 11389.432 11349.120 3817.934 3740.090 1575.168 1599.025 3140.300 3097.611 2221.560 2164.615
2019: Q3 16459.633 16392.380 11455.199 11470.440 3847.650 3790.479 1615.308 1612.444 3162.704 3127.347 2195.835 2181.547
2019: Q4 16626.256 16577.130 11618.232 11593.060 3866.032 3841.548 1631.884 1625.975 3170.527 3157.371 2216.028 2198.612
2020: Q1 16784.555 16763.960 11781.765 11716.980 3866.849 3893.304 1643.215 1639.620 3212.403 3187.681 2249.110 2215.809
2020: Q2 18381.223 16952.920 11053.449 11842.240 3794.226 3945.758 1475.638 1653.379 5556.394 3218.282 2098.175 2233.141
2020: Q3 17781.701 17143.990 11563.370 11968.830 3766.382 3998.919 1751.631 1667.254 4385.667 3249.179 2237.526 2250.609
2020: Q4 17436.245 17337.210 11972.406 12096.770 3833.712 4052.796 1701.982 1681.245 3770.164 3280.371 2360.693 2268.213
2021: Q1 19586.547 17532.630 12058.458 12226.090 3851.447 4107.399 1654.956 1695.354 6022.325 3311.865 2508.991 2285.956
2021: Q2 18277.834 17730.240 12369.806 12356.790 3909.729 4162.737 1776.897 1709.581 4381.637 3343.657 2638.526 2303.836
2021: Q3 18312.028 17930.070 12681.303 12488.870 3945.686 4218.817 1792.665 1723.927 4139.598 3375.755 2693.218 2321.857
2021: Q4 18356.061 18132.150 13044.357 12622.380 3998.091 4275.657 1789.755 1738.394 3925.745 3408.165 2806.056 2340.018
2022: Q1 18174.387 18336.530 13259.717 12757.320 4014.722 4333.262 1811.416 1752.982 3868.726 3440.882 3145.454 2358.323
2022: Q2 18427.649 18543.190 13468.963 12893.680 4098.914 4391.644 1835.359 1767.693 3883.192 3473.917 3197.900 2376.770

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, authors’ calculations.

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Figure 3: Nominal and Real PCE on Goods and Services
Quarter Date Personal Consumption Expenditures Personal Consumption Expenditures: Goods Personal Consumption Expenditures: Services
Nominal, Billions of Dollars, Annual Rate Real, Billions of 2012 Dollars, Annual Rate Nominal, Billions of Dollars, Annual Rate Real, Billions of 2012 Dollars, Annual Rate Nominal, Billions of Dollars, Annual Rate Real, Billions of 2012 Dollars, Annual Rate
Actual Log Linear Trend 2015–2019 Actual Log Linear Trend 2015–2019 Actual Log Linear Trend 2015–2019 Actual Log Linear Trend 2015–2019 Actual Log Linear Trend 2015–2019 Actual Log Linear Trend 2015–2019
2015: Q1 12083.904 12039.230 11772.949 11785.440 3867.908 3841.482 4031.984 4032.936 8215.995 8197.826 7746.901 7757.291
2015: Q2 12224.707 12163.610 11852.652 11857.690 3927.357 3875.305 4074.697 4069.473 8297.350 8288.300 7785.418 7794.436
2015: Q3 12347.752 12289.280 11943.043 11930.370 3960.436 3909.426 4120.416 4106.337 8387.315 8379.772 7831.584 7831.766
2015: Q4 12397.543 12416.250 12003.146 12003.500 3936.269 3943.847 4136.454 4143.540 8461.274 8472.254 7875.144 7869.275
2016: Q1 12495.078 12544.530 12091.178 12077.080 3934.429 3978.572 4177.890 4181.075 8560.649 8565.748 7923.137 7906.957
2016: Q2 12637.360 12674.140 12152.627 12151.110 3984.676 4013.602 4214.349 4218.954 8652.684 8660.282 7950.107 7944.826
2016: Q3 12759.058 12805.100 12223.822 12225.600 4008.357 4048.937 4255.880 4257.172 8750.700 8755.859 7982.071 7982.876
2016: Q4 12881.566 12937.400 12283.076 12300.540 4039.933 4084.586 4278.731 4295.737 8841.634 8852.492 8018.786 8021.101
2017: Q1 13049.405 13071.060 12369.907 12375.940 4095.618 4120.550 4313.549 4334.655 8953.786 8950.190 8071.458 8059.517
2017: Q2 13133.989 13206.110 12419.407 12451.800 4112.168 4156.830 4358.547 4373.921 9021.820 9048.959 8080.108 8098.109
2017: Q3 13260.313 13342.550 12493.466 12528.130 4161.884 4193.430 4409.269 4413.548 9098.429 9148.825 8107.416 8136.894
2017: Q4 13490.728 13480.400 12630.132 12604.930 4267.829 4230.348 4501.929 4453.529 9222.899 9249.795 8158.802 8175.864
2018: Q1 13677.349 13619.680 12713.156 12682.190 4304.247 4267.595 4514.018 4493.876 9373.103 9351.878 8227.150 8215.013
2018: Q2 13850.838 13760.390 12805.609 12759.930 4346.070 4305.170 4548.336 4534.585 9504.767 9455.079 8285.797 8254.357
2018: Q3 13988.794 13902.570 12887.074 12838.150 4373.054 4343.076 4586.995 4575.667 9615.740 9559.429 8330.517 8293.891
2018: Q4 14102.937 14046.210 12943.375 12916.830 4397.338 4381.315 4624.071 4617.117 9705.598 9664.929 8352.993 8333.604
2019: Q1 14145.897 14191.330 12955.727 12996.010 4382.544 4419.887 4623.552 4658.947 9763.353 9771.594 8365.086 8373.518
2019: Q2 14323.749 14337.950 13038.854 13075.680 4461.397 4458.803 4685.461 4701.151 9862.352 9879.437 8392.475 8413.621
2019: Q3 14482.196 14486.090 13148.857 13155.830 4508.514 4498.061 4751.964 4743.737 9973.682 9988.459 8441.166 8453.908
2019: Q4 14619.042 14635.750 13225.609 13236.470 4541.585 4537.666 4785.223 4786.714 10077.457 10098.690 8485.431 8494.397
2020: Q1 14440.160 14786.970 13016.750 13317.610 4532.224 4577.618 4785.022 4830.076 9907.936 10210.150 8290.656 8535.080
2020: Q2 13049.766 14939.740 11817.147 13399.240 4344.277 4617.918 4651.091 4873.834 8705.489 10322.830 7284.484 8575.949
2020: Q3 14388.701 15094.110 12922.381 13481.380 4896.970 4658.578 5191.262 4917.985 9491.731 10436.750 7882.955 8617.022
2020: Q4 14586.036 15250.060 13046.614 13564.020 4907.070 4699.595 5195.517 4962.541 9678.966 10551.930 7993.887 8658.292
2021: Q1 15131.484 15407.620 13386.763 13647.160 5265.287 4740.974 5496.466 5007.495 9866.197 10668.380 8072.354 8699.751
2021: Q2 15813.545 15566.800 13773.688 13730.820 5529.932 4782.717 5649.883 5052.861 10283.613 10786.120 8309.531 8741.417
2021: Q3 16147.297 15727.630 13874.396 13814.990 5517.143 4824.823 5534.607 5098.634 10630.154 10905.160 8494.323 8783.283
2021: Q4 16517.976 15890.130 13981.514 13899.670 5673.702 4867.304 5566.740 5144.826 10844.274 11025.500 8568.249 8825.341
2022: Q1 16874.769 16054.300 14028.383 13984.870 5843.170 4910.159 5565.721 5191.432 11031.599 11147.180 8612.970 8867.608
2022: Q2 17261.338 16220.170 14099.456 14070.600 5953.638 4953.392 5529.616 5238.459 11307.701 11270.210 8709.636 8910.069

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, authors’ calculations.

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Figure 4. Personal Interest Payments

Billions of dollars, Annual Rate

Quarter Date Actual Log Linear Trend 2015–2019
2015: Q1 253.873 252.157
2015: Q2 261.290 256.432
2015: Q3 266.919 260.779
2015: Q4 271.856 265.200
2016: Q1 266.871 269.696
2016: Q2 271.273 274.268
2016: Q3 274.959 278.918
2016: Q4 277.958 283.646
2017: Q1 280.495 288.455
2017: Q2 287.005 293.345
2017: Q3 292.920 298.318
2017: Q4 301.115 303.375
2018: Q1 308.688 308.518
2018: Q2 315.181 313.748
2018: Q3 327.373 319.067
2018: Q4 329.414 324.476
2019: Q1 328.474 329.977
2019: Q2 337.172 335.571
2019: Q3 346.834 341.260
2019: Q4 345.559 347.045
2020: Q1 337.447 352.928
2020: Q2 273.029 358.911
2020: Q3 272.464 364.996
2020: Q4 254.039 371.183
2021: Q1 258.256 377.476
2021: Q2 275.509 383.875
2021: Q3 281.147 390.383
2021: Q4 282.768 397.001
2022: Q1 293.461 403.731
2022: Q2 313.079 410.575

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, authors’ calculations.

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Figure 5. Contributions to Flow of Excess Savings and Its Cumulated Stock

Contributions to Excess Savings
Billions of Dollars, Annual Rate

Quarter Date Income Reduction in Outlays Fiscal Support Total
2020: Q1 40.859 370.470 -21.311 397.064
2020: Q2 -1120.248 1985.318 2546.251 3419.016
2020: Q3 -557.095 818.873 1191.044 1461.190
2020: Q4 -327.639 796.523 421.269 899.234
2021: Q1 -470.539 408.478 2517.218 2464.986
2021: Q2 -181.049 -125.567 719.353 423.370
2021: Q3 -22.347 -300.106 392.753 81.750
2021: Q4 183.182 -505.213 26.671 -283.014
2022: Q1 227.295 -703.009 -406.206 -868.655
2022: Q2 332.594 -937.667 -467.871 -1058.704

Source: Authors’ calculations.

Stock of Excess Savings
Billions of Dollars

Quarter Date Stock of Excess Savings
2020: Q1 99.266
2020: Q2 954.020
2020: Q3 1319.318
2020: Q4 1544.126
2021: Q1 2160.373
2021: Q2 2266.215
2021: Q3 2286.653
2021: Q4 2215.899
2022: Q1 1998.736
2022: Q2 1734.060

Source: Authors' calculations

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Figure 6. Evolution of DPI and PCE across Income Quartiles

Log Linear Trend 2015-2019 = 100

Quarter Date Disposable Personal Income Personal Consumption Expenditures
Bottom Quartile Second Quartile Third Quartile Top Quartile Bottom Quartile Second Quartile Third Quartile Top Quartile
2020: Q1 100.907 100.523 100.264 99.819 98.525 98.156 97.759 97.163
2020: Q2 154.806 122.038 107.983 97.849 118.336 100.520 82.636 76.453
2020: Q3 131.740 110.327 102.139 98.341 125.155 107.983 93.190 83.485
2020: Q4 112.558 104.322 100.531 97.684 121.101 106.413 94.384 85.235
2021: Q1 159.130 127.050 113.866 99.300 123.063 110.557 100.423 85.349
2021: Q2 126.933 109.998 103.345 97.372 120.504 110.183 102.765 92.406
2021: Q3 119.049 108.751 102.706 97.362 114.998 106.919 102.110 97.985
2021: Q4 111.341 107.545 102.680 97.159 113.513 107.153 103.774 100.212
2022: Q1 109.028 106.014 101.253 94.567 113.069 107.924 105.745 101.496
2022: Q2 108.824 106.202 101.585 94.860 113.731 108.855 107.036 103.138

Source: Authors' calculations

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Figure 7. Decomposition of Excess Savings across Income Quartiles

Stock of Excess Savings by Income Quartile
Billions of Dollars

Quarter Date Bottom Quartile Second Quartile Third Quartile Top Quartile
2020: Q1 10.291 16.642 25.170 45.470
2020: Q2 115.610 157.753 275.184 401.873
2020: Q3 113.590 175.001 368.898 656.234
2020: Q4 64.178 164.663 436.376 871.172
2021: Q1 167.467 275.347 583.372 1124.104
2021: Q2 170.190 275.762 598.222 1209.464
2021: Q3 170.636 290.802 612.837 1197.149
2021: Q4 150.395 296.197 610.635 1140.595
2022: Q1 123.525 285.320 572.589 996.099
2022: Q2 92.129 268.337 523.747 825.409

Source: Authors’ calculations.

Contributions to Excess Savings by Income Quartile as of 2022:Q2
Billions of Dollars

Quartile Income Fiscal Support Reduction in Outlays Total
Bottom -2.283 816.520 -722.108 92.129
Second Quartile -15.521 694.610 -410.752 268.337
Third Quartile -73.883 450.036 147.595 523.747
Top Quartile -382.329 -232.714 1440.452 825.409

Source: Authors' calculations

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Figure 8. Delinquent Loan Balances and Paydown Rates

New Delinquent Loan Balances
Percent of Current Balance

Quarter Date New Delinquent Loan Balances
2015: Q1 4.96
2015: Q2 5.01
2015: Q3 4.88
2015: Q4 4.84
2016: Q1 4.71
2016: Q2 4.53
2016: Q3 4.55
2016: Q4 4.55
2017: Q1 4.68
2017: Q2 4.76
2017: Q3 4.67
2017: Q4 4.57
2018: Q1 4.54
2018: Q2 4.52
2018: Q3 4.64
2018: Q4 4.65
2019: Q1 4.67
2019: Q2 4.67
2019: Q3 4.60
2019: Q4 4.67
2020: Q1 4.61
2020: Q2 3.99
2020: Q3 3.31
2020: Q4 2.66
2021: Q1 2.13
2021: Q2 1.99
2021: Q3 1.93
2021: Q4 2.03
2022: Q1 2.12
2022: Q2 2.41

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, "Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit" (2022:Q2).

Credit Card Payment Rate
Percent of Total Outstanding

Date Credit Card Payment Rate
1/15/2022 25.62
2/15/2022 24.29
3/15/2022 26.22
4/15/2022 25.33
5/15/2022 25.75
6/15/2022 26.42
7/15/2022 27.15
8/15/2022 25.65
9/15/2022 25.87
10/15/2022 25.84
11/15/2022 24.75
12/15/2022 27.71
1/16/2022 25.78
2/16/2022 25.53
3/16/2022 27.02
4/16/2022 25.83
5/16/2022 26.89
6/16/2022 27.69
7/16/2022 26.23
8/16/2022 27.31
9/16/2022 26.82
10/16/2022 25.70
11/16/2022 25.60
12/16/2022 27.33
1/17/2022 27.11
2/17/2022 25.57
3/17/2022 28.20
4/17/2022 25.60
5/17/2022 27.80
6/17/2022 28.10
7/17/2022 27.20
8/17/2022 28.08
9/17/2022 26.55
10/17/2022 27.35
11/17/2022 26.97
12/17/2022 28.03
1/18/2022 28.65
2/18/2022 25.98
3/18/2022 29.16
4/18/2022 27.45
5/18/2022 29.07
6/18/2022 28.85
7/18/2022 29.11
8/18/2022 29.57
9/18/2022 27.19
10/18/2022 29.34
11/18/2022 28.66
12/18/2022 29.43
1/19/2022 29.91
2/19/2022 27.94
3/19/2022 29.77
4/19/2022 29.48
5/19/2022 30.90
6/19/2022 29.53
7/19/2022 31.02
8/19/2022 30.18
9/19/2022 29.48
10/19/2022 29.94
11/19/2022 28.29
12/19/2022 31.23
1/20/2022 31.04
2/20/2022 28.82
3/20/2022 29.03
4/20/2022 26.27
5/20/2022 25.53
6/20/2022 27.83
7/20/2022 30.50
8/20/2022 29.96
9/20/2022 31.07
10/20/2022 31.86
11/20/2022 31.36
12/20/2022 35.06
1/21/2022 33.55
2/21/2022 32.03
3/21/2022 36.57
4/21/2022 36.81
5/21/2022 37.27
6/21/2022 39.11
7/21/2022 39.22
8/21/2022 39.05
9/21/2022 38.76
10/21/2022 38.43
11/21/2022 39.36
12/21/2022 42.27
1/22/2022 38.74
2/22/2022 38.13
3/22/2022 41.80
4/22/2022 40.36
5/22/2022 41.40
6/22/2022 41.84

Note: Includes both principal and finance charge payments.

Source: Standard and Poor’s

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Last Update: October 21, 2022