Forecasting During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Structural Analysis of Downside Risk, Accessible Data

Figure 1. Possible paths of GDP. US GDP

2019: Q1 = 100

Date Data COVID+RD COVID Only Gemus Pre-COVID Q3 point
2019-01-01 100 100 100 100  
2019-04-01 100.3032924 100.3032924 100.3032924 100.3032924  
2019-07-01 100.8801153 100.8801153 100.8801153 100.8801153  
2019-10-01 101.4176178 101.4176178 101.4176178 101.4176178  
2020-01-01 100.0992331 100.0992331 100.0992331 101.9938384  
2020-04-01 90.63662874 90.63662874 90.63662874 102.3764974  
2020-07-01   88.39184855 94.95254096 102.6421309 97.82438613
2020-10-01   87.72221773 97.86263991 102.8509522  
2021-01-01   87.79829954 99.66870245 103.0453567  
2021-04-01   88.19859284 100.7826101 103.2515754  
2021-07-01   88.71996986 101.4907584 103.4836078  
2021-10-01   89.27314193 101.9812379 103.7472461  
2022-01-01   89.82684376 102.370235 104.0433365  
2022-04-01   90.3770159 102.7249797 104.370097  
2022-07-01   90.93014167 103.0812323 104.7246078  
2022-10-01   91.49484437 103.4556489 105.1036758  

Note: GDP is gross domestic product.

Source: Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

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Figure 1. Possible paths of GDP. Foreign GDP

2019: Q1 = 100

Date Data COVID+RD COVID Only Gemus Pre-COVID Q3 point
2019-01-01 100 100 100 100  
2019-04-01 100.2768107 100.2768107 100.2768107 100.2768107  
2019-07-01 100.4565524 100.4565524 100.4565524 100.4565524  
2019-10-01 100.6323739 100.6323739 100.6323739 100.6323739  
2020-01-01 98.48892397 98.48892397 98.48892397 100.7818853  
2020-04-01 84.6776823 84.6776823 84.6776823 101.013226  
2020-07-01   81.482228 90.03406541 101.2957414 94.96306008
2020-10-01   81.12334321 93.61551067 101.6268331  
2021-01-01   82.25248843 96.21783647 102.0105769  
2021-04-01   84.03689845 98.07664412 102.4469028  
2021-07-01   85.99189358 99.40754234 102.9309281  
2021-10-01   87.86338651 100.3897318 103.454871  
2022-01-01   89.54081791 101.1556748 104.0100355  
2022-04-01   90.99639011 101.7961399 104.5881901  
2022-07-01   92.24517207 102.3696664 105.1823041  
2022-10-01   93.32056667 102.911925 105.7868066  

Note: GDP is gross domestic product.

Source: Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

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Last Update: February 01, 2021