Accessible Version

Index of Common Inflation Expectations, Accessible Data

Figure 1. Evolution of selected inflation expectation indicators

Percent

  Michigan Survey, price changes next 5-10 years TIPS, Inflation Compensation, 6-10-year-ahead SPF, 1-year ahead, Core PCE Inflation SPF, 10-year ahead PCE Inflation
1/1/1999 3 1.7518    
2/1/1999 2.8 1.9731    
3/1/1999 2.7 2.1683    
4/1/1999 2.8 2.0578    
5/1/1999 2.9 2.3151    
6/1/1999 2.8 2.4745    
7/1/1999 2.9 2.4506    
8/1/1999 2.8 2.6594    
9/1/1999 2.9 2.7532    
10/1/1999 2.8 2.8541    
11/1/1999 2.9 2.6121    
12/1/1999 2.9 2.6958    
1/1/2000 3 2.6918    
2/1/2000 2.9 2.3342    
3/1/2000 3.1 2.2530    
4/1/2000 2.8 2.1937    
5/1/2000 2.9 2.4259    
6/1/2000 2.8 2.1661    
7/1/2000 2.8 2.1861    
8/1/2000 2.9 2.0002    
9/1/2000 3 2.1842    
10/1/2000 3 2.1893    
11/1/2000 2.9 2.1547    
12/1/2000 3 1.9376    
1/1/2001 2.9 2.1370    
2/1/2001 3 2.1409    
3/1/2001 3 2.1394    
4/1/2001 3.1 2.4257    
5/1/2001 3 2.5283    
6/1/2001 3 2.4018    
7/1/2001 2.9 2.2872    
8/1/2001 3 2.2581    
9/1/2001 2.9 2.4964    
10/1/2001 2.7 2.3198    
11/1/2001 2.8 2.4500    
12/1/2001 3 2.6469    
1/1/2002 2.7 2.6330    
2/1/2002 2.8 2.5673    
3/1/2002 2.8 2.7577    
4/1/2002 2.8 2.7715    
5/1/2002 3 2.7722    
6/1/2002 2.8 2.6647    
7/1/2002 2.8 2.6545    
8/1/2002 2.9 2.8219    
9/1/2002 2.5 2.6057    
10/1/2002 2.8 2.6044    
11/1/2002 2.8 2.6378    
12/1/2002 2.8 2.6981    
1/1/2003 2.7 2.7777    
2/1/2003 2.7 2.7695    
3/1/2003 2.8 2.5383    
4/1/2003 2.7 2.4578    
5/1/2003 2.8 2.3571    
6/1/2003 2.7 2.2132    
7/1/2003 2.7 2.6497    
8/1/2003 2.7 3.0006    
9/1/2003 2.7 2.8365    
10/1/2003 2.8 2.9423    
11/1/2003 2.7 3.1797    
12/1/2003 2.8 2.9485    
1/1/2004 2.8 3.0051    
2/1/2004 2.9 2.9463    
3/1/2004 2.9 2.9398    
4/1/2004 2.7 3.0760    
5/1/2004 2.8 3.2776    
6/1/2004 2.9 3.1886    
7/1/2004 2.8 3.0446    
8/1/2004 2.7 2.9691    
9/1/2004 2.8 2.8410    
10/1/2004 2.8 2.7611    
11/1/2004 2.7 2.7797    
12/1/2004 2.8 2.8126    
1/1/2005 2.7 2.7234    
2/1/2005 2.8 2.6212    
3/1/2005 2.9 2.7983    
4/1/2005 3 2.7261    
5/1/2005 2.9 2.5865    
6/1/2005 2.8 2.4775    
7/1/2005 2.9 2.4393    
8/1/2005 2.8 2.5200    
9/1/2005 3.1 2.5534    
10/1/2005 3.2 2.5941    
11/1/2005 3 2.6692    
12/1/2005 3.1 2.5502    
1/1/2006 2.9 2.5354    
2/1/2006 2.9 2.5886    
3/1/2006 2.9 2.6213    
4/1/2006 3.1 2.7216    
5/1/2006 3.2 2.8086    
6/1/2006 2.9 2.6783    
7/1/2006 2.9 2.6614    
8/1/2006 3.2 2.7196    
9/1/2006 3 2.6428    
10/1/2006 3.1 2.6013    
11/1/2006 3 2.5882    
12/1/2006 3 2.5052    
1/1/2007 3 2.5175 2.05 2
2/1/2007 2.9 2.5151    
3/1/2007 2.9 2.5159    
4/1/2007 3.1 2.5546 2.1 2
5/1/2007 3.1 2.5083    
6/1/2007 2.9 2.6491    
7/1/2007 3.1 2.6550 2 2.1
8/1/2007 2.9 2.6977    
9/1/2007 2.9 2.7775    
10/1/2007 2.8 2.7903 1.9 2.1
11/1/2007 2.9 2.8030    
12/1/2007 3.1 2.7619    
1/1/2008 3 2.8335 2 2.2
2/1/2008 3 3.0095    
3/1/2008 2.9 3.0975    
4/1/2008 3.2 2.9714 2.09 2.2
5/1/2008 3.4 2.9699    
6/1/2008 3.4 2.8984    
7/1/2008 3.2 2.8355 2 2.2
8/1/2008 3.2 2.8934    
9/1/2008 3 2.8236    
10/1/2008 2.9 3.0001 1.7 2.2
11/1/2008 2.9 2.9155    
12/1/2008 2.6 2.4041    
1/1/2009 2.9 2.3972 1.5 2.2
2/1/2009 3.1 2.6240    
3/1/2009 2.6 2.4149    
4/1/2009 2.8 2.4582 1.44 2.28
5/1/2009 2.9 2.7804    
6/1/2009 3 3.0069    
7/1/2009 3 3.0593 1.25 2.15
8/1/2009 2.8 3.1849    
9/1/2009 2.8 2.9859    
10/1/2009 2.9 2.9861 1.3 2.1
11/1/2009 3 3.1566    
12/1/2009 2.7 3.1638    
1/1/2010 2.9 3.1770 1.48 2.1
2/1/2010 2.7 3.0813    
3/1/2010 2.7 2.9440    
4/1/2010 2.7 3.0644 1.56 2.15
5/1/2010 2.9 2.9299    
6/1/2010 2.8 2.7642    
7/1/2010 2.9 2.5984 1.55 2.11
8/1/2010 2.8 2.4323    
9/1/2010 2.7 2.6267    
10/1/2010 2.8 2.8384 1.2 2
11/1/2010 2.8 2.9854    
12/1/2010 2.8 3.1077    
1/1/2011 2.9 3.0257 1.55 2.1
2/1/2011 2.9 2.9102    
3/1/2011 3.2 2.9478    
4/1/2011 2.9 3.0678 1.6 2.27
5/1/2011 2.9 2.8653    
6/1/2011 3 2.8829    
7/1/2011 2.9 3.0932 1.6 2.25
8/1/2011 2.9 2.8939    
9/1/2011 2.8 2.4098    
10/1/2011 2.7 2.4586 1.6 2.16
11/1/2011 2.7 2.4203    
12/1/2011 2.7 2.4495    
1/1/2012 2.7 2.5323 1.8 2.15
2/1/2012 2.9 2.5923    
3/1/2012 3 2.6799    
4/1/2012 2.9 2.6924 1.9 2.2
5/1/2012 2.7 2.5595    
6/1/2012 2.8 2.5107    
7/1/2012 2.7 2.4358 1.98 2.2
8/1/2012 3 2.5447    
9/1/2012 2.8 2.6000    
10/1/2012 2.7 2.8069 1.9 2.1
11/1/2012 2.8 2.7178    
12/1/2012 2.9 2.7774    
1/1/2013 2.9 2.8446 1.9 2
2/1/2013 3 2.8260    
3/1/2013 2.8 2.8106    
4/1/2013 2.9 2.7270 1.9 2
5/1/2013 2.9 2.7105    
6/1/2013 2.9 2.4487    
7/1/2013 2.8 2.5860 1.8 2
8/1/2013 2.9 2.7336    
9/1/2013 3 2.6282    
10/1/2013 2.8 2.5869 1.7 2
11/1/2013 2.9 2.5972    
12/1/2013 2.7 2.6579    
1/1/2014 2.9 2.6665 1.78 2
2/1/2014 2.9 2.5210    
3/1/2014 2.9 2.4269    
4/1/2014 2.9 2.4193 1.76 2
5/1/2014 2.8 2.4289    
6/1/2014 2.9 2.4205    
7/1/2014 2.7 2.4412 1.85 2
8/1/2014 2.9 2.3879    
9/1/2014 2.8 2.2773    
10/1/2014 2.8 2.1455 1.76 2
11/1/2014 2.6 2.0802    
12/1/2014 2.8 1.9726    
1/1/2015 2.8 1.7981 1.7 2
2/1/2015 2.7 1.8181    
3/1/2015 2.8 1.8747    
4/1/2015 2.6 1.9049 1.73 1.98
5/1/2015 2.8 2.0354    
6/1/2015 2.6 2.0669    
7/1/2015 2.8 2.0629 1.78 2
8/1/2015 2.7 1.8909    
9/1/2015 2.7 1.7844    
10/1/2015 2.5 1.7376 1.6 1.9
11/1/2015 2.6 1.8363    
12/1/2015 2.6 1.7209    
1/1/2016 2.7 1.5582 1.8 1.97
2/1/2016 2.5 1.4306    
3/1/2016 2.7 1.5631    
4/1/2016 2.5 1.5979 1.88 2
5/1/2016 2.5 1.5606    
6/1/2016 2.6 1.3969    
7/1/2016 2.6 1.3633 1.9 2
8/1/2016 2.5 1.4231    
9/1/2016 2.6 1.4807    
10/1/2016 2.4 1.5770 1.86 2
11/1/2016 2.6 1.8091    
12/1/2016 2.3 1.9139    
1/1/2017 2.6 1.9217 2 2.1
2/1/2017 2.5 1.9538    
3/1/2017 2.4 1.9224    
4/1/2017 2.4 1.8981 2 2.09
5/1/2017 2.4 1.8933    
6/1/2017 2.5 1.7586    
7/1/2017 2.6 1.7964 1.82 2
8/1/2017 2.5 1.7923    
9/1/2017 2.5 1.7996    
10/1/2017 2.5 1.8126 1.8 2
11/1/2017 2.4 1.7984    
12/1/2017 2.4 1.8795    
1/1/2018 2.5 1.9911 2 2
2/1/2018 2.5 2.1268    
3/1/2018 2.5 2.0448    
4/1/2018 2.5 2.0567 2.1 2
5/1/2018 2.5 2.1253    
6/1/2018 2.6 2.1407    
7/1/2018 2.4 2.1154 2.13 2
8/1/2018 2.6 2.0848    
9/1/2018 2.5 2.0937    
10/1/2018 2.4 2.0952 2.1 2.01
11/1/2018 2.6 2.0157    
12/1/2018 2.5 1.8537    
1/1/2019 2.6 1.7914 2.1 2
2/1/2019 2.3 1.8718    
3/1/2019 2.5 1.9030    
4/1/2019 2.3 1.9527 1.99 2
5/1/2019 2.6 1.9187    
6/1/2019 2.3 1.7847    
7/1/2019 2.5 1.8064 1.97 2
8/1/2019 2.6 1.6349    
9/1/2019 2.4 1.6326    
10/1/2019 2.3 1.6157 2 2
11/1/2019 2.5 1.6857    
12/1/2019 2.2 1.7575    
1/1/2020 2.5 1.7408 1.88 2
2/1/2020 2.3 1.6268    
3/1/2020 2.3 1.2559    

Source: Federal Reserve Board; University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers; Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

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Figure 2. Estimated index of common inflation expectations (projected onto SPF 10-year-ahead PCE inflation expectations)

Percent

Date CIE index, projected onto SPF, 10−year PCE inflation
1/1/1999 2.0354
4/1/1999 2.0643
7/1/1999 2.0922
10/1/1999 2.0987
1/1/2000 2.0837
4/1/2000 2.0671
7/1/2000 2.0591
10/1/2000 2.0673
1/1/2001 2.0779
4/1/2001 2.0886
7/1/2001 2.0828
10/1/2001 2.0819
1/1/2002 2.0907
4/1/2002 2.1013
7/1/2002 2.1027
10/1/2002 2.0987
1/1/2003 2.0938
4/1/2003 2.0908
7/1/2003 2.1071
10/1/2003 2.1274
1/1/2004 2.1396
4/1/2004 2.1422
7/1/2004 2.1335
10/1/2004 2.1240
1/1/2005 2.1171
4/1/2005 2.1134
7/1/2005 2.1114
10/1/2005 2.1152
1/1/2006 2.1178
4/1/2006 2.1242
7/1/2006 2.1198
10/1/2006 2.1064
1/1/2007 2.0911
4/1/2007 2.0895
7/1/2007 2.0945
10/1/2007 2.1074
1/1/2008 2.1283
4/1/2008 2.1364
7/1/2008 2.1158
10/1/2008 2.0831
1/1/2009 2.0749
4/1/2009 2.0989
7/1/2009 2.1240
10/1/2009 2.1269
1/1/2010 2.1180
4/1/2010 2.1027
7/1/2010 2.0952
10/1/2010 2.1090
1/1/2011 2.1287
4/1/2011 2.1338
7/1/2011 2.1176
10/1/2011 2.0978
1/1/2012 2.0968
4/1/2012 2.1009
7/1/2012 2.1022
10/1/2012 2.1024
1/1/2013 2.1012
4/1/2013 2.0918
7/1/2013 2.0837
10/1/2013 2.0815
1/1/2014 2.0820
4/1/2014 2.0711
7/1/2014 2.0503
10/1/2014 2.0247
1/1/2015 2.0105
4/1/2015 2.0087
7/1/2015 2.0063
10/1/2015 1.9896
1/1/2016 1.9708
4/1/2016 1.9616
7/1/2016 1.9655
10/1/2016 1.9827
1/1/2017 1.9951
4/1/2017 1.9929
7/1/2017 1.9870
10/1/2017 1.9886
1/1/2018 2.0001
4/1/2018 2.0062
7/1/2018 2.0011
10/1/2018 1.9904
1/1/2019 1.9825
4/1/2019 1.9771
7/1/2019 1.9705
10/1/2019 1.9653
1/1/2020 1.9697

Source: Staff calculations.

Note: The shaded area denotes 95% confidence intervals.

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Figure 3. Index of common inflation expectations projected onto SPF 10-year-ahead PCE inflation expectations and University of Michigan inflation expectations of next 5-10 years

Percent

Date CIE index, projected onto SPF, 10−year PCE inflation Alternative index, projected onto Michigan, next 5−10 years
1/1/1999 2.0354 2.6996
4/1/1999 2.0643 2.7802
7/1/1999 2.0922 2.8577
10/1/1999 2.0987 2.8759
1/1/2000 2.0837 2.8340
4/1/2000 2.0671 2.7878
7/1/2000 2.0591 2.7655
10/1/2000 2.0673 2.7885
1/1/2001 2.0779 2.8180
4/1/2001 2.0886 2.8477
7/1/2001 2.0828 2.8316
10/1/2001 2.0819 2.8290
1/1/2002 2.0907 2.8534
4/1/2002 2.1013 2.8830
7/1/2002 2.1027 2.8868
10/1/2002 2.0987 2.8758
1/1/2003 2.0938 2.8622
4/1/2003 2.0908 2.8537
7/1/2003 2.1071 2.8992
10/1/2003 2.1274 2.9556
1/1/2004 2.1396 2.9895
4/1/2004 2.1422 2.9967
7/1/2004 2.1335 2.9726
10/1/2004 2.1240 2.9461
1/1/2005 2.1171 2.9268
4/1/2005 2.1134 2.9168
7/1/2005 2.1114 2.9110
10/1/2005 2.1152 2.9216
1/1/2006 2.1178 2.9290
4/1/2006 2.1242 2.9466
7/1/2006 2.1198 2.9344
10/1/2006 2.1064 2.8971
1/1/2007 2.0911 2.8545
4/1/2007 2.0895 2.8501
7/1/2007 2.0945 2.8640
10/1/2007 2.1074 2.9000
1/1/2008 2.1283 2.9580
4/1/2008 2.1364 2.9808
7/1/2008 2.1158 2.9235
10/1/2008 2.0831 2.8323
1/1/2009 2.0749 2.8095
4/1/2009 2.0989 2.8763
7/1/2009 2.1240 2.9463
10/1/2009 2.1269 2.9543
1/1/2010 2.1180 2.9296
4/1/2010 2.1027 2.8869
7/1/2010 2.0952 2.8660
10/1/2010 2.1090 2.9044
1/1/2011 2.1287 2.9592
4/1/2011 2.1338 2.9734
7/1/2011 2.1176 2.9285
10/1/2011 2.0978 2.8734
1/1/2012 2.0968 2.8706
4/1/2012 2.1009 2.8820
7/1/2012 2.1022 2.8855
10/1/2012 2.1024 2.8861
1/1/2013 2.1012 2.8828
4/1/2013 2.0918 2.8566
7/1/2013 2.0837 2.8340
10/1/2013 2.0815 2.8279
1/1/2014 2.0820 2.8294
4/1/2014 2.0711 2.7989
7/1/2014 2.0503 2.7410
10/1/2014 2.0247 2.6699
1/1/2015 2.0105 2.6303
4/1/2015 2.0087 2.6253
7/1/2015 2.0063 2.6187
10/1/2015 1.9896 2.5720
1/1/2016 1.9708 2.5198
4/1/2016 1.9616 2.4943
7/1/2016 1.9655 2.5050
10/1/2016 1.9827 2.5531
1/1/2017 1.9951 2.5875
4/1/2017 1.9929 2.5814
7/1/2017 1.9870 2.5650
10/1/2017 1.9886 2.5693
1/1/2018 2.0001 2.6014
4/1/2018 2.0062 2.6182
7/1/2018 2.0011 2.6041
10/1/2018 1.9904 2.5744
1/1/2019 1.9825 2.5523
4/1/2019 1.9771 2.5373
7/1/2019 1.9705 2.5191
10/1/2019 1.9653 2.5046
1/1/2020 1.9697 2.5169

Source: Staff calculations.

Note: The shaded area denotes 95% confidence intervals.

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Last Update: September 02, 2020