Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Figure 1. World's Largest Economies by Size in 2025

This is a horizontal bar chart showing the world's largest economies by GDP in trillions of U.S. dollars in 2025. The United States leads with approximately $29 trillion, followed by China at around $18 trillion, Japan at $4 trillion, Germany at $4.5 trillion, India at $4 trillion, United Kingdom at $3.5 trillion, and France at $3 trillion. The chart demonstrates that India is the 5th largest economy globally, positioned to overtake Japan and Germany.

Return to text

Figure 2. World Shares in 2024

This is a bar chart. Key identifies in order from left to right India, then China. Three sets of bars compare India and China with respect to each country's share of global population, GDP, and exports in 2024. India's share of global population, at approximately 18 percent, is about the same as China's. India accounts for about 3 percent of global GDP and 2 percent of global merchandise exports versus about 15 percent for China for both global GDP and exports.

Return to text

Figure 3. Real GDP Growth 1991 to 2025

Key identifies in order from left to right China, India, and an emerging market economy aggregate excluding China and India. Three sets of bars compare average annual real GDP growth rates across different time periods (1993-2007, 2008-2019, and 2022-2025) for India (green bars), China (red bars), and other emerging market economies excluding China and India (blue bars). India's growth averages between 6.5 percent and 7.7 percent across the periods (excluding the pandemic), while China's growth has declined from over 10 percent in earlier periods to under 5 percent in recent years, now below India's growth. On balance, the other EMEs grew more modestly; growth in this aggregate has slowed from nearly 4 percent over the 1993-2007 period to 3.4 percent over the 2022-25 period. The main message is that India has become the world's fastest-growing major economy.

Return to text

Figure 4. GDP per capita

This is a line chart showing per capita GDP in thousands of U.S. dollars from 1990 to 2025. The y-axis ranges from 0 to 14 thousand U.S. dollars. The chart displays two data series: China represented by a red dashed line and India shown by a green solid line. In 1990, both countries started at similar values well below 1 thousand dollars. China's per capita GDP reached approximately 14 thousand dollars by 2025. India's per capita GDP rose more modestly throughout the entire period, reaching approximately 2.8 thousand dollars by 2025. Throughout the period, the gap between the two countries progressively widened.

Return to text

Figure 5. Working Age Population

This is a line chart showing working-age population (ages 15-64) from 1950 to 2100. The y-axis measures population in millions, ranging from 0 to 1,200 million. The chart displays three variables: India represented by a solid thick green line, China shown by a red dashed line, and U.S. shown by a solid black line. Historical data appears on a white background through 2023, while projections from 2024 to 2100 appear on a light blue background, separated by a vertical black line. China's working-age population increased from about 350 million in 1950 to peak at approximately 1 billion around 2015, before beginning a decline that continues in the projections to about 400 million by 2075 and about 300 million by 2100. India's working-age population shows consistent growth from about 200 million in 1950 to about 1 billion by 2025, peaking at approximately 1.1 billion around 2050, before declining to about 850 million by 2100. The U.S. working-age population grows more gradually from about 100 million in 1950 to about 200 million by 2025 and was projected to increase slightly to about 250 million by 2100.

Return to text

Figure 6. Employment by Sector

This is a line chart showing percentage distribution of employment across four sectors in India from 1995 to 2022. The y-axis shows percent from 0 to 80. The chart displays four lines: Agriculture (thick green line) decreases from 63 percent in 1995 to about 43 percent in 2022. Services (blue line) increases from about 20 percent in 1995 to about 35 percent by 2022. Manufacturing (solid dark red line) remains relatively stable between 10-12 percent throughout the period. Construction (gold dashed line) shows gradual growth from about 5 percent in 1995 to approximately 12 percent by 2022, nearly converging with manufacturing by the end of the period.

The chart illustrates the shifting employment structure in India, with agriculture's dominance decreasing while service sector employment has steadily increased. Both manufacturing and construction show more modest changes in their employment shares.

Return to text

Figure 7. Manufacturing GDP's Share

Bar chart comparing manufacturing's share of GDP or gross value added in current prices for various Asian economies during their high-growth phases. China, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan all show manufacturing shares between 25-35 percent of GDP at a late stage of their growth miracle periods (Japan: 1980, Taiwan: 1990, China: 2010, Korea: 1990). India's manufacturing share in 2024 was under 15 percent of GDP, well below the level of the other Asian economies, highlighting India's different development path.

Return to text

Figure 8. Contributions to GDP Growth

This is a stacked bar chart showing annualized percent contributions to India's growth on the supply side, measured as gross value added at basic prices. The stacked bars compare three time periods: 1993-2007, 2008-2019, and 2022-2025. The y-axis measures percent, annualized, ranging from 0 to 10. The chart displays five economic sectors: Services (blue), Construction (gold), Manufacturing (red), Agriculture (green), and Other (gray). Aggregate growth averaged 6.6 percent in 1993-2007, 6.3 percent in 2008-2019, and 7.4 percent in 2022-2025. Services (blue) makes the largest contribution in all periods, increasing from about 3.4 percent in the first period to around 4.0 percent in the second period and 4.8 percent in the third period. Manufacturing contributes about 1 percent across all periods. Construction contributes about 0.5 percent in the first two periods and increases to roughly 0.8 percent in 2022-2025. Agriculture maintains a consistent contribution, under 1 percent, across all periods. The "Other" category shows the smallest contribution, approximately 0.2-0.4 percent across all periods.

Return to text

Figure 9. Average Tariff Rate

This is a line chart showing tariff rates from 1995 to 2025, with the y-axis measuring percent ranging from 0 to 40. The chart displays three variables: "All" (black line), "Agriculture" (gold line), and "Non-agriculture" (blue line). The "All" tariff rate shows a significant decline from around 40 percent in 1995 to approximately 10 percent by 2010, after which it rises. The "Agriculture" tariff rate, which begins around 2005 in the chart, remains consistently higher than the other rates, fluctuating between 30-40 percent throughout the period. The "Non-agriculture" tariff rate, also beginning around 2005, follows a similar pattern to the "All" rate but at lower levels, generally remaining between 10-15 percent through 2024. By the end of the series in 2024, the "All" rate is 16 percent, the "Agriculture" rate is 37 percent, and the "Non-agriculture" rate is 13 percent.

Return to text

Figure 10. U.S. Smartphone Imports

Line chart showing 12-month moving sums of U.S. smartphone imports by source country from 2023 to October 2025, measured in billions of USD. China (red dotted line) starts at approximately 50 billion USD in early 2023 and declines to approximately 30 billion USD by late 2025. India (green solid line) starts at approximately 3 billion USD in early 2023 and increases to approximately 18 billion USD by late 2025. Rest of world (black solid line) remains relatively stable between 5 and 15 billion USD throughout the period. This demonstrates India's growing role as a U.S. smartphone supplier.

Return to text

Figure 11. Inward FDI

Line chart showing net inward foreign direct investment (FDI) as a percentage of GDP from 1990 to 2025 for India (green solid line), China (red dashed line), and through 2024 for Vietnam (gold solid line). Vietnam’s FDI is high, peaking at approximately 12 percent of GDP in the mid-1990s, reaching approximately 10 percent around 2008, and stabilizing around 4-5 percent in recent years. China peaks at approximately 6 percent of GDP in the early 1990s, with a secondary peak around 4 percent of GDP in 2010, then declines sharply to near zero or negative by the early 2020s. India remains the lowest throughout, gradually increasing from near zero in 1990 to peak at approximately 3 percent around 2008, then declining to approximately 1 percent or below by 2025.

Return to text

Figure 12. Services Share of Total Exports

Line chart showing annual services exports as a percentage of total exports (goods plus services) from 1980 to 2025 for India (green solid line) and China (red dotted line). The share of services exports to total exports in India rises from approximately 28 percent in 2000 to nearly 50 percent in 2025. For China, the share of services in total exports remains relatively flat, declining from approximately 13 percent in 2000 to approximately 10 percent by 2010 and stabilizing at that level through 2025. This highlights India's distinctive development path with services playing a much larger role in its export mix than in China.

Return to text

Figure 13. Equity Returns

Line chart showing daily equity returns from January 4, 2023 to February 27, 2026 for India's benchmark stock market index (SENSEX, red line) and a composite index of India's 6 largest outsourcing firms (Cognizant, HCLTech, Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services, Tech Mahindra, and Wipro, blue line). The indices are scaled so that January 1, 2025 equals 100. Both indices start at approximately 75-78 in early 2023. SENSEX rises to approximately 110 by late 2025. The outsourcing firms composite shows higher volatility, generally tracking below SENSEX, and drops sharply to approximately 67 by February 2026. This divergence reflects investor concerns about whether India's global service providers will be able to adapt to the disruption posed by Generative AI.

Return to text

Figure 14. Number of STEM Graduates, Selected Countries

Bar chart comparing the number of STEM graduates at the bachelor's level or equivalent across selected countries in 2020, measured in millions. China leads with approximately 3.5 million STEM graduates, followed by India with approximately 2.6 million graduates. The United States shows approximately 0.7 million STEM graduates, and Russia has approximately 0.5 million. This demonstrates that India has the world's second-largest pool of STEM graduates after China, which could serve as both a resource for adapting to AI-driven changes and as a domestic engine of growth.

Return to text