Accessible Version

Inflation's Shared DNA: Regional and Global Factors in Post-Pandemic Core Inflation, Accessible Data

Figure 1: Europe and North America Regional Components

Panel (a) Full sample
Percent

Date Europe level Europe level lower bound of 90% confidence interval Europe level upper bound of 90% confidence interval N.America level N. America level lower bound of 90% confidence interval N.America level upper bound of 90% confidence interval
1/1/1975 -2.62815884 -3.147031208 -2.109286473 -5.33797698 -5.748358597 -4.927595363
2/1/1975 -2.299672587 -2.818543017 -1.780802157 -4.835282228 -5.245663496 -4.42490096
3/1/1975 -1.939146979 -2.458015612 -1.420278345 -4.39740762 -4.807788418 -3.987026823
4/1/1975 -1.580273585 -2.099140145 -1.061407026 -3.978996806 -4.389377269 -3.568616343
5/1/1975 -1.204810527 -1.723675311 -0.685945743 -3.596335083 -4.006714989 -3.185955177
6/1/1975 -0.837939994 -1.356802885 -0.319077103 -3.273252376 -3.683631993 -2.86287276
7/1/1975 -0.470831932 -0.989693298 0.048029433 -2.943036752 -3.353415831 -2.532657674
8/1/1975 -0.1200568 -0.638916624 0.398803024 -2.71599331 -3.126372166 -2.305614455
9/1/1975 0.220129323 -0.298729323 0.73898797 -2.466907565 -2.87728596 -2.05652917
10/1/1975 0.542664477 0.023806975 1.061521979 -2.323334876 -2.733713117 -1.912956635
11/1/1975 0.841527533 0.322670861 1.360384205 -2.129124621 -2.539502499 -1.718746742
12/1/1975 1.123331451 0.604475563 1.642187339 -2.061199556 -2.471577342 -1.650821771
1/1/1976 1.373675106 0.854819754 1.892530458 -1.93375888 -2.344136399 -1.523381362
2/1/1976 1.605927359 1.087072502 2.124782215 -1.940416943 -2.350794414 -1.530039473
3/1/1976 1.805585545 1.286731006 2.324440084 -1.890564277 -2.300941562 -1.480186993
4/1/1976 1.992003869 1.473149625 2.510858113 -1.956151601 -2.366528867 -1.545774336
5/1/1976 2.152485811 1.633631736 2.671339885 -1.981543957 -2.391921098 -1.571166816
6/1/1976 2.309875693 1.791021775 2.828729611 -2.080069475 -2.490446613 -1.669692337
7/1/1976 2.44491577 1.926061929 2.96376961 -2.130589533 -2.540966592 -1.720212474
8/1/1976 2.576588888 2.057735124 3.095442652 -2.251245431 -2.661622492 -1.840868369
9/1/1976 2.683231589 2.164377851 3.202085327 -2.295265046 -2.70564206 -1.884888033
10/1/1976 2.789164063 2.270310353 3.308017774 -2.381399529 -2.791776546 -1.971022511
11/1/1976 2.871280887 2.352427189 3.390134585 -2.39656288 -2.806939868 -1.986185892
12/1/1976 2.952622769 2.433769077 3.471476461 -2.428052343 -2.838429334 -2.017675353
1/1/1977 3.011683405 2.492829727 3.530537082 -2.347698104 -2.758075075 -1.937321133
2/1/1977 3.077362317 2.558508636 3.596215997 -2.296638453 -2.707015423 -1.886261483
3/1/1977 3.123299509 2.604445834 3.642153185 -2.140998789 -2.551375748 -1.730621831
4/1/1977 3.173636789 2.654783112 3.692490466 -1.996077297 -2.406454252 -1.585700343
5/1/1977 3.202820068 2.683966379 3.721673757 -1.782154607 -2.192531557 -1.371777658
6/1/1977 3.229449552 2.710595875 3.74830323 -1.577588288 -1.98796523 -1.167211347
7/1/1977 3.241172949 2.722319258 3.760026641 -1.32684412 -1.737221059 -0.91646718
8/1/1977 3.257116235 2.738262539 3.775969932 -1.065952306 -1.47632924 -0.655575372
9/1/1977 3.267104992 2.74825131 3.785958673 -0.777783218 -1.188160147 -0.367406288
10/1/1977 3.282010133 2.763156437 3.800863829 -0.47186012 -0.882237045 -0.061483194
11/1/1977 3.29838247 2.779528785 3.817236156 -0.172912858 -0.583289779 0.237464063
12/1/1977 3.319664311 2.800810621 3.838518001 0.16421787 -0.246159048 0.574594788
1/1/1978 3.34801843 2.829164749 3.866872112 0.456417992 0.046041078 0.866794907
2/1/1978 3.380414488 2.861560817 3.89926816 0.785295104 0.374918193 1.195672014
3/1/1978 3.423049883 2.904196216 3.94190355 1.06180517 0.651428264 1.472182075
4/1/1978 3.470871166 2.952017496 3.989724836 1.370228603 0.959851699 1.780605508
5/1/1978 3.530846692 3.011993018 4.049700365 1.646313731 1.235936829 2.056690632
6/1/1978 3.594374066 3.075520415 4.113227717 1.966023107 1.555646211 2.376400003
7/1/1978 3.669891023 3.151037367 4.18874468 2.222000684 1.81162379 2.632377577
8/1/1978 3.745874361 3.227020692 4.26472803 2.52970327 2.119326379 2.940080161
9/1/1978 3.832991834 3.314138198 4.351845469 2.752341835 2.341964951 3.162718719
10/1/1978 3.918404006 3.399550332 4.437257681 3.033842203 2.62346532 3.444219085
11/1/1978 4.012927102 3.494073431 4.531780774 3.241547776 2.831170896 3.651924656
12/1/1978 4.10350291 3.584649172 4.622356649 3.467324476 3.056947592 3.87770136
1/1/1979 4.200315437 3.681461706 4.719169168 3.640540209 3.230163327 4.050917092
2/1/1979 4.292532535 3.773678786 4.811386284 3.865400138 3.455023256 4.275777021
3/1/1979 4.389525285 3.870671508 4.908379061 4.028871886 3.618495001 4.439248771
4/1/1979 4.481859696 3.963005932 5.000713459 4.226624326 3.816247441 4.63700121
5/1/1979 4.579237203 4.060383447 5.098090958 4.35711863 3.946741749 4.767495512
6/1/1979 4.672523508 4.153669784 5.191377232 4.496575695 4.086198815 4.906952576
7/1/1979 4.77033437 4.251480611 5.289188129 4.591048154 4.180671271 5.001425036
8/1/1979 4.863944947 4.345091216 5.382798678 4.69691824 4.286541357 5.107295123
9/1/1979 4.959441786 4.440588056 5.478295515 4.791373316 4.380996435 5.201750196
10/1/1979 5.050377895 4.531524221 5.569231569 4.85749021 4.447113334 5.267867086
11/1/1979 5.137875767 4.619022137 5.656729396 4.938394146 4.528017279 5.348771012
12/1/1979 5.221853275 4.702999606 5.740706944 5.00705978 4.596682908 5.417436651
1/1/1980 5.299204922 4.780351274 5.818058569 5.060948803 4.650571935 5.471325671
2/1/1980 5.371655557 4.852801911 5.890509203 5.103885631 4.693508766 5.514262497
3/1/1980 5.433732634 4.914878997 5.952586271 5.111783759 4.701406896 5.522160623
4/1/1980 5.490569663 4.971715989 6.009423337 5.151934648 4.741557782 5.562311514
5/1/1980 5.535407803 5.016554171 6.054261436 5.138757905 4.728381044 5.549134765
6/1/1980 5.575820542 5.056966889 6.094674195 5.182772638 4.772395776 5.5931495
7/1/1980 5.606854256 5.088000557 6.125707955 5.151913268 4.7415364 5.562290136
8/1/1980 5.638307272 5.119453606 6.157160938 5.201036572 4.790659706 5.611413438
9/1/1980 5.663697924 5.144844209 6.182551638 5.198371742 4.787994869 5.608748615
10/1/1980 5.693906425 5.175052777 6.212760073 5.259479923 4.849103055 5.669856792
11/1/1980 5.722299629 5.203445996 6.241153262 5.30089025 4.890513384 5.711267116
12/1/1980 5.756413518 5.237559908 6.275267128 5.377824464 4.967447597 5.78820133
1/1/1981 5.789939478 5.271085866 6.308793089 5.465058646 5.054681779 5.875435513
2/1/1981 5.830770996 5.311917419 6.349624573 5.542603842 5.132226978 5.952980706
3/1/1981 5.873078899 5.354225372 6.391932426 5.664053385 5.253676528 6.074430242
4/1/1981 5.923329665 5.404476127 6.442183202 5.752421317 5.34204446 6.162798174
5/1/1981 5.973791963 5.454938433 6.492645492 5.913162945 5.50278609 6.3235398
6/1/1981 6.031842674 5.512989114 6.550696234 6.028315815 5.617938956 6.438692673
7/1/1981 6.087097816 5.568244288 6.605951344 6.237975431 5.827598577 6.648352285
8/1/1981 6.148088599 5.629235099 6.666942099 6.343688438 5.933311592 6.754065284
9/1/1981 6.205244067 5.686390441 6.724097693 6.507231957 6.096855093 6.917608821
10/1/1981 6.266041992 5.747188429 6.784895555 6.569247558 6.158870705 6.979624411
11/1/1981 6.320388582 5.801535039 6.839242124 6.641417427 6.231040578 7.051794276
12/1/1981 6.375447345 5.856593777 6.894300913 6.645683647 6.235306799 7.056060494
1/1/1982 6.422858041 5.904004484 6.941711599 6.642280761 6.23190392 7.052657602
2/1/1982 6.469143968 5.950290266 6.987997671 6.607332471 6.196955613 7.017709329
3/1/1982 6.507716727 5.988863025 7.02657043 6.552502936 6.142126079 6.962879793
4/1/1982 6.541533429 6.022679832 7.060387026 6.472356957 6.061980119 6.882733795
5/1/1982 6.566883162 6.048029386 7.085736938 6.352468591 5.942091732 6.76284545
6/1/1982 6.586993183 6.068139457 7.105846909 6.209287551 5.798910701 6.619664401
7/1/1982 6.598082491 6.079228757 7.116936225 6.002437788 5.59206094 6.412814636
8/1/1982 6.605160376 6.086306497 7.124014254 5.796904789 5.386527922 6.207281656
9/1/1982 6.603404286 6.084550488 7.122258084 5.52451387 5.114137013 5.934890728
10/1/1982 6.600208806 6.081354936 7.119062676 5.284469451 4.874092585 5.694846318
11/1/1982 6.590327394 6.071473511 7.109181278 4.989625683 4.579248812 5.400002554
12/1/1982 6.581684541 6.06283078 7.100538302 4.703476622 4.293099766 5.113853478
1/1/1983 6.567232083 6.048378284 7.086085882 4.411623796 4.001246937 4.822000656
2/1/1983 6.555752039 6.036898282 7.074605797 4.114907596 3.704530742 4.52528445
3/1/1983 6.538026371 6.019172584 7.056880157 3.831271754 3.420894895 4.241648613
4/1/1983 6.523490685 6.004636902 7.042344467 3.532609133 3.122232276 3.94298599
5/1/1983 6.502357691 5.983503944 7.021211438 3.257659973 2.847283118 3.668036829
6/1/1983 6.483694257 5.96484049 7.002548024 2.972664173 2.562287321 3.383041025
7/1/1983 6.457523712 5.938669882 6.976377542 2.773346993 2.362970124 3.183723862
8/1/1983 6.430988106 5.912134226 6.949841986 2.553226515 2.142849642 2.963603387
9/1/1983 6.394909637 5.876055885 6.913763389 2.418593987 2.008217118 2.828970856
10/1/1983 6.355387925 5.836534305 6.874241545 2.245749794 1.83537295 2.656126638
11/1/1983 6.303889214 5.78503561 6.822742818 2.149147921 1.738771076 2.559524765
12/1/1983 6.249166113 5.730312378 6.768019848 2.022223537 1.611846675 2.432600398
1/1/1984 6.181601826 5.662748178 6.700455473 1.949946839 1.539569987 2.36032369
2/1/1984 6.111304463 5.592450845 6.630158082 1.836273115 1.425896264 2.246649965
3/1/1984 6.027510247 5.508656477 6.546364017 1.76712418 1.356747309 2.177501051
4/1/1984 5.942902711 5.424049095 6.461756327 1.68042211 1.270045247 2.090798973
5/1/1984 5.844750266 5.325896663 6.36360387 1.618691072 1.208314214 2.02906793
6/1/1984 5.747344823 5.228491249 6.266198397 1.54931136 1.138934495 1.959688226
7/1/1984 5.638254883 5.119401296 6.15710847 1.483159162 1.072782294 1.89353603
8/1/1984 5.532212049 5.013358553 6.051065545 1.422666171 1.012289304 1.833043039
9/1/1984 5.416880399 4.898027092 5.935733705 1.378624253 0.968247411 1.789001095
10/1/1984 5.305786754 4.786933409 5.8246401 1.337968334 0.927591484 1.748345184
11/1/1984 5.189300113 4.670446866 5.70815336 1.312938274 0.902561436 1.723315113
12/1/1984 5.076744232 4.557890889 5.595597575 1.312418379 0.902041531 1.722795228
1/1/1985 4.961133703 4.442280361 5.479987045 1.317391151 0.907014294 1.727768007
2/1/1985 4.849666996 4.330813683 5.368520309 1.357274298 0.946897446 1.767651149
3/1/1985 4.735484744 4.216631422 5.254338067 1.403015154 0.992638293 1.813392014
4/1/1985 4.62320854 4.104355318 5.142061762 1.457084214 1.046707367 1.867461061
5/1/1985 4.50813274 3.989279556 5.026985924 1.542376181 1.131999337 1.952753025
6/1/1985 4.393188869 3.874335764 4.912041975 1.610177805 1.199800973 2.020554637
7/1/1985 4.276525509 3.75767239 4.795378629 1.710781064 1.300404237 2.12115789
8/1/1985 4.160470614 3.64161736 4.679323867 1.783027753 1.372650903 2.193404602
9/1/1985 4.043492788 3.524639609 4.562345966 1.87969681 1.469319978 2.290073642
10/1/1985 3.92858258 3.409729528 4.447435632 1.964994633 1.554617815 2.375371451
11/1/1985 3.812734174 3.293880866 4.331587481 2.076672189 1.666295354 2.487049024
12/1/1985 3.699758043 3.180904776 4.21861131 2.170553305 1.760176461 2.580930148
1/1/1986 3.586511971 3.067658778 4.105365165 2.290702693 1.880325881 2.701079505
2/1/1986 3.476637905 2.957784633 3.995491178 2.377523106 1.967146273 2.787899939
3/1/1986 3.368275845 2.849422536 3.887129154 2.500788313 2.090411497 2.911165129
4/1/1986 3.266362157 2.747508743 3.785215572 2.58089622 2.170519376 2.991273064
5/1/1986 3.168216314 2.64936285 3.687069778 2.685777449 2.275400614 3.096154283
6/1/1986 3.079095424 2.560241851 3.597948996 2.740734913 2.330358048 3.151111779
7/1/1986 2.995898283 2.477044734 3.514751832 2.828493113 2.418116256 3.23886997
8/1/1986 2.923396628 2.404543101 3.442250154 2.871573188 2.461196323 3.281950052
9/1/1986 2.857970457 2.339116944 3.376823971 2.930803815 2.520426951 3.341180679
10/1/1986 2.802848024 2.283994648 3.3217014 2.966063786 2.555686939 3.376440632
11/1/1986 2.755145025 2.236291724 3.273998325 3.005726713 2.59534988 3.416103547
12/1/1986 2.718519284 2.199665842 3.237372725 3.017934538 2.607557693 3.428311383
1/1/1987 2.689156242 2.170302911 3.208009574 3.037404455 2.627027623 3.447781287
2/1/1987 2.670848166 2.15199485 3.189701481 3.031640167 2.621263359 3.442016975
3/1/1987 2.660151309 2.141297809 3.179004808 3.036981252 2.626604415 3.447358088
4/1/1987 2.65957361 2.140720088 3.178427131 3.039070893 2.628694076 3.44944771
5/1/1987 2.665907345 2.147053631 3.184761058 3.045690538 2.635313684 3.456067392
6/1/1987 2.680852426 2.161998771 3.199706081 3.045306606 2.63492978 3.455683433
7/1/1987 2.701296355 2.182442582 3.220150127 3.063860524 2.653483674 3.474237374
8/1/1987 2.728792394 2.209938435 3.247646354 3.082101992 2.671725126 3.492478859
9/1/1987 2.760303475 2.241449648 3.279157302 3.117708011 2.707331149 3.528084872
10/1/1987 2.797987461 2.27913376 3.316841162 3.126326344 2.715949505 3.536703183
11/1/1987 2.838847607 2.319993665 3.357701549 3.170484464 2.760107591 3.580861337
12/1/1987 2.884761412 2.365907601 3.403615224 3.186601079 2.776224211 3.596977948
1/1/1988 2.933274468 2.414420592 3.452128343 3.230872551 2.820495677 3.641249425
2/1/1988 2.985397993 2.466544242 3.504251743 3.252461336 2.842084457 3.662838214
3/1/1988 3.038716663 2.519862939 3.557570388 3.299317347 2.888940479 3.709694215
4/1/1988 3.093334071 2.574480473 3.612187669 3.295301631 2.884924756 3.705678505
5/1/1988 3.14696208 2.628108613 3.665815546 3.308376032 2.897999187 3.718752877
6/1/1988 3.198616588 2.679763186 3.717469989 3.307385676 2.897008828 3.717762525
7/1/1988 3.246373563 2.727520151 3.765226974 3.291755823 2.881378982 3.702132665
8/1/1988 3.289037857 2.770184507 3.807891208 3.271344252 2.860967417 3.681721087
9/1/1988 3.324673139 2.805819689 3.84352659 3.241355037 2.830978192 3.651731881
10/1/1988 3.353058893 2.834205344 3.871912443 3.217217884 2.806841024 3.627594743
11/1/1988 3.372586488 2.85373319 3.891439786 3.165091145 2.754714322 3.575467968
12/1/1988 3.384240304 2.865386779 3.90309383 3.117182719 2.70680587 3.527559568
1/1/1989 3.385274416 2.866420921 3.904127911 3.056829894 2.646453051 3.467206736
2/1/1989 3.38037024 2.861516824 3.899223656 2.98704126 2.57666443 3.39741809
3/1/1989 3.365024312 2.84617058 3.883878045 2.907149787 2.496772919 3.317526655
4/1/1989 3.345745039 2.826891645 3.864598434 2.823305059 2.412928233 3.233681886
5/1/1989 3.318101106 2.799247482 3.836954731 2.757978922 2.347602075 3.168355768
6/1/1989 3.289027247 2.770173544 3.807880949 2.678176631 2.267799774 3.088553489
7/1/1989 3.254498901 2.735645228 3.773352575 2.617715536 2.207338683 3.02809239
8/1/1989 3.221450585 2.702596864 3.740304307 2.541761399 2.131384549 2.952138249
9/1/1989 3.186870416 2.668016794 3.705724039 2.480478715 2.070101872 2.890855557
10/1/1989 3.155972122 2.637118438 3.674825806 2.415212344 2.004835514 2.825589174
11/1/1989 3.125686664 2.606833047 3.644540282 2.363718326 1.953341501 2.774095151
12/1/1989 3.100297569 2.581443792 3.619151346 2.322766047 1.912389221 2.733142873
1/1/1990 3.07723036 2.558376333 3.596084388 2.283937962 1.873561099 2.694314826
2/1/1990 3.058739206 2.539885315 3.577593098 2.266306095 1.85592925 2.67668294
3/1/1990 3.041503224 2.522649107 3.560357341 2.240495733 1.830118863 2.650872603
4/1/1990 3.027907596 2.509053428 3.546761764 2.241059164 1.830682267 2.651436062
5/1/1990 3.015931457 2.497077393 3.534785522 2.225502846 1.815125964 2.635879728
6/1/1990 3.00579736 2.486943535 3.524651185 2.250019243 1.83964237 2.660396115
7/1/1990 2.996645417 2.477791591 3.515499243 2.264063163 1.853686299 2.674440027
8/1/1990 2.987344082 2.468490466 3.506197699 2.320617765 1.91024091 2.730994621
9/1/1990 2.977496449 2.458642674 3.496350224 2.370372997 1.959996128 2.780749867
10/1/1990 2.964901529 2.446047858 3.483755199 2.434821382 2.024444508 2.845198256
11/1/1990 2.951816645 2.432963111 3.47067018 2.521818977 2.111442116 2.932195838
12/1/1990 2.934900481 2.41604694 3.453754021 2.587681791 2.17730493 2.998058652
1/1/1991 2.919614931 2.400761543 3.43846832 2.71776226 2.307385406 3.128139115
2/1/1991 2.900537247 2.381683645 3.41939085 2.769896032 2.359519158 3.180272906
3/1/1991 2.885542595 2.366689258 3.404395932 2.811357621 2.40098076 3.221734482
4/1/1991 2.867363817 2.348510595 3.386217038 2.8111278 2.400750977 3.221504623
5/1/1991 2.855713234 2.336859831 3.374566638 2.771799705 2.361422843 3.182176568
6/1/1991 2.842008059 2.323155041 3.360861078 2.712294429 2.301917642 3.122671216
7/1/1991 2.836358893 2.317505532 3.355212253 2.602637344 2.192260513 3.013014175
8/1/1991 2.828736941 2.309883542 3.34759034 2.485549154 2.075172334 2.895925973
9/1/1991 2.829553589 2.310700091 3.348407087 2.317956981 1.90758015 2.728333812
10/1/1991 2.828892969 2.310039366 3.347746572 2.143858437 1.733481605 2.554235268
11/1/1991 2.836175126 2.317321442 3.355028811 1.929541045 1.519164204 2.339917886
12/1/1991 2.840783169 2.321929439 3.359636898 1.724761887 1.314385046 2.135138728
1/1/1992 2.851441758 2.332587944 3.370295572 1.446065946 1.035689101 1.856442792
2/1/1992 2.857633802 2.338779957 3.376487648 1.245027927 0.83465108 1.655404775
3/1/1992 2.869077327 2.350223309 3.387931346 1.031631571 0.621254706 1.442008437
4/1/1992 2.874576305 2.355722492 3.393430119 0.880007012 0.469630173 1.290383851
5/1/1992 2.884544333 2.365690422 3.403398243 0.724436858 0.314060018 1.134813699
6/1/1992 2.887752319 2.368898296 3.406606341 0.62300087 0.212624011 1.033377728
7/1/1992 2.894434911 2.375581001 3.413288821 0.526824386 0.116447544 0.937201228
8/1/1992 2.893809415 2.374955445 3.412663385 0.475493228 0.065116382 0.885870073
9/1/1992 2.895902883 2.377048642 3.414757125 0.430889293 0.020512402 0.841266184
10/1/1992 2.890216417 2.37136206 3.409070774 0.442435747 0.032058831 0.852812662
11/1/1992 2.887101151 2.368246955 3.405955347 0.434198728 0.023821809 0.844575647
12/1/1992 2.876573721 2.357719743 3.3954277 0.483086284 0.072709391 0.893463178
1/1/1993 2.867794372 2.348940709 3.386648034 0.498695638 0.088318771 0.909072506
2/1/1993 2.85256608 2.333712483 3.371419678 0.561947355 0.151570509 0.972324201
3/1/1993 2.837582593 2.318729016 3.356436169 0.573909538 0.163532685 0.984286391
4/1/1993 2.818013405 2.299160076 3.336866735 0.631845526 0.221468724 1.042222327
5/1/1993 2.797258864 2.278405357 3.316112371 0.653160544 0.242783721 1.063537367
6/1/1993 2.773654404 2.254800797 3.292508011 0.700069079 0.289692259 1.110445898
7/1/1993 2.748773927 2.229920147 3.267627707 0.723881188 0.31350434 1.134258036
8/1/1993 2.722878099 2.204024241 3.241731957 0.761750822 0.351373971 1.172127674
9/1/1993 2.69562969 2.176775781 3.214483599 0.772495918 0.362119049 1.182872786
10/1/1993 2.669208904 2.150355012 3.188062797 0.778296905 0.367920033 1.188673777
11/1/1993 2.641102357 2.122248657 3.159956057 0.776658609 0.366281761 1.187035458
12/1/1993 2.615853882 2.097000012 3.134707753 0.74510185 0.334724967 1.155478732
1/1/1994 2.588160676 2.069306859 3.107014493 0.721130212 0.310753338 1.131507086
2/1/1994 2.565245607 2.04639192 3.084099295 0.648899489 0.238522611 1.059276366
3/1/1994 2.541265834 2.022412013 3.060119655 0.635579456 0.225202571 1.04595634
4/1/1994 2.522232044 2.003378518 3.04108557 0.595851333 0.18547446 1.006228207
5/1/1994 2.502847434 1.983994081 3.021700787 0.592963447 0.182586622 1.003340272
6/1/1994 2.488503391 1.969650017 3.007356766 0.589963366 0.17958653 1.000340203
7/1/1994 2.473368717 1.954515317 2.992222116 0.620695067 0.210318247 1.031071888
8/1/1994 2.462525705 1.943672146 2.981379264 0.639916292 0.229539458 1.050293126
9/1/1994 2.45040172 1.931548099 2.969255342 0.713749782 0.303372945 1.12412662
10/1/1994 2.441420348 1.922566485 2.960274211 0.762415995 0.352039144 1.172792846
11/1/1994 2.430247679 1.911394081 2.949101278 0.863249349 0.452872524 1.273626173
12/1/1994 2.420855326 1.902001486 2.939709167 0.972754316 0.562377499 1.383131134
1/1/1995 2.408879762 1.890026007 2.927733517 1.109200935 0.698824112 1.519577758
2/1/1995 2.396974992 1.878121247 2.915828737 1.271159841 0.860783067 1.681536614
3/1/1995 2.381571256 1.86271694 2.900425572 1.412641908 1.002265042 1.823018773
4/1/1995 2.365388762 1.846534401 2.884243123 1.545048448 1.13467159 1.955425307
5/1/1995 2.344331032 1.825476649 2.863185415 1.671806847 1.261429965 2.08218373
6/1/1995 2.321221212 1.802366663 2.84007576 1.75629205 1.345915137 2.166668963
7/1/1995 2.292326398 1.773472009 2.811180787 1.832452276 1.422075362 2.242829189
8/1/1995 2.259875771 1.741021486 2.778730056 1.874213637 1.46383671 2.284590564
9/1/1995 2.221603998 1.702749736 2.74045826 1.89724687 1.486869931 2.30762381
10/1/1995 2.178344583 1.659490891 2.697198275 1.903491937 1.493115035 2.313868839
11/1/1995 2.129758204 1.610904569 2.648611839 1.891334403 1.48095752 2.301711287
12/1/1995 2.075539318 1.556685909 2.594392727 1.847900478 1.437523589 2.258277366
1/1/1996 2.016349783 1.497496654 2.535202912 1.812974539 1.402597713 2.223351364
2/1/1996 1.951388526 1.43253534 2.470241713 1.751650466 1.341273611 2.16202732
3/1/1996 1.882788976 1.363936154 2.401641797 1.704216823 1.293840044 2.114593603
4/1/1996 1.808719565 1.28986667 2.32757246 1.636012811 1.225636025 2.046389596
5/1/1996 1.732456524 1.213603309 2.251309739 1.580933846 1.170557044 1.991310647
6/1/1996 1.651395811 1.132542217 2.170249404 1.515888152 1.105511293 1.926265012
7/1/1996 1.569516669 1.050663072 2.088370266 1.455183755 1.044806898 1.865560611
8/1/1996 1.48430547 0.965451896 2.003159045 1.386490554 0.976113696 1.796867412
9/1/1996 1.399744586 0.880891041 1.91859813 1.320096671 0.909719817 1.730473526
10/1/1996 1.313500214 0.794646749 1.83235368 1.252489902 0.842113065 1.662866739
11/1/1996 1.229416746 0.710563245 1.748270247 1.176492326 0.766115487 1.586869166
12/1/1996 1.14486178 0.626008181 1.663715379 1.116564011 0.706187169 1.526940854
1/1/1997 1.064359742 0.545506207 1.583213278 1.025676004 0.615299173 1.436052835
2/1/1997 0.984445841 0.465592219 1.503299462 0.951378911 0.541002085 1.361755738
3/1/1997 0.910764376 0.391910655 1.429618097 0.849490268 0.439113432 1.259867104
4/1/1997 0.839841863 0.320987981 1.358695745 0.775484984 0.365108145 1.185861822
5/1/1997 0.777059558 0.258205518 1.295913599 0.670184167 0.259807304 1.080561029
6/1/1997 0.718823742 0.199969934 1.23767755 0.597288846 0.18691203 1.007665662
7/1/1997 0.669943457 0.151089589 1.188797324 0.502716601 0.092339787 0.913093415
8/1/1997 0.628054357 0.109200226 1.146908488 0.447298657 0.036921827 0.857675487
9/1/1997 0.595699146 0.076844828 1.114553465 0.379459825 -0.030917031 0.789836682
10/1/1997 0.57238439 0.053530132 1.091238648 0.360446459 -0.049930387 0.770823305
11/1/1997 0.557425007 0.038570703 1.07627931 0.321977077 -0.088399772 0.732353926
12/1/1997 0.553163624 0.034309323 1.072017925 0.341657863 -0.068718994 0.75203472
1/1/1998 0.555586011 0.036731476 1.074440547 0.369067062 -0.041309819 0.779443944
2/1/1998 0.570172818 0.051317991 1.089027644 0.43331697 0.022940019 0.843693922
3/1/1998 0.590282365 0.071427781 1.10913695 0.498966394 0.088589458 0.909343331
4/1/1998 0.622207035 0.103352942 1.141061127 0.578536733 0.168159836 0.988913631
5/1/1998 0.657038506 0.138184379 1.175892633 0.67876329 0.26838639 1.089140191
6/1/1998 0.701845403 0.182991602 1.220699204 0.773177127 0.362800249 1.183554006
7/1/1998 0.74679437 0.227940905 1.265647835 0.888279466 0.477902646 1.298656286
8/1/1998 0.799783907 0.280930365 1.318637448 0.992244731 0.581867903 1.402621559
9/1/1998 0.850625056 0.331771597 1.369478516 1.102789019 0.692412213 1.513165825
10/1/1998 0.908268309 0.389414613 1.427122005 1.193901846 0.783525015 1.604278678
11/1/1998 0.961339395 0.442485442 1.480193348 1.294528791 0.884151927 1.704905656
12/1/1998 1.020747956 0.501893946 1.539601966 1.361746317 0.951369426 1.772123208
1/1/1999 1.073439762 0.554585912 1.592293611 1.444211165 1.033834297 1.854588033
2/1/1999 1.13310336 0.614249553 1.651957167 1.500569506 1.09019262 1.910946392
3/1/1999 1.185518781 0.666664959 1.704372603 1.590430581 1.180053696 2.000807466
4/1/1999 1.244694884 0.725841477 1.763548292 1.662634507 1.252257655 2.073011359
5/1/1999 1.297299411 0.778445973 1.81615285 1.745426253 1.335049409 2.155803097
6/1/1999 1.357240024 0.838386594 1.876093453 1.810170518 1.399793666 2.220547371
7/1/1999 1.411076691 0.892223263 1.92993012 1.892584315 1.482207471 2.30296116
8/1/1999 1.473503279 0.954649851 1.992356707 1.936675435 1.526298587 2.347052284
9/1/1999 1.530738824 1.011885616 2.049592031 2.02468863 1.614311819 2.435065442
10/1/1999 1.596609842 1.077756413 2.115463271 2.058479106 1.648102283 2.468855928
11/1/1999 1.658794001 1.139940179 2.177647824 2.13581683 1.72543995 2.54619371
12/1/1999 1.728933625 1.210079866 2.247787385 2.175579145 1.765202284 2.585956006
1/1/2000 1.7964559 1.277602178 2.315309621 2.246791448 1.836414581 2.657168315
2/1/2000 1.871009821 1.352156271 2.389863372 2.293688857 1.883312044 2.70406567
3/1/2000 1.943736923 1.424883283 2.462590563 2.374660627 1.964283795 2.785037458
4/1/2000 2.023283433 1.504430059 2.542136808 2.410302991 1.999926238 2.820679743
5/1/2000 2.101088279 1.582234337 2.619942222 2.490955876 2.08057906 2.901332692
6/1/2000 2.184459082 1.665604525 2.703313638 2.537443954 2.127067072 2.947820836
7/1/2000 2.266064264 1.747210242 2.784918285 2.614396489 2.204019675 3.024773304
8/1/2000 2.351082325 1.832227899 2.869936752 2.669056322 2.25867948 3.079433164
9/1/2000 2.43444128 1.915586114 2.953296446 2.739218332 2.328841386 3.149595278
10/1/2000 2.518400647 1.999546334 3.03725496 2.798688027 2.388311176 3.209064878
11/1/2000 2.599859364 2.08100487 3.118713858 2.868559144 2.458182297 3.27893599
12/1/2000 2.679260984 2.160406512 3.198115456 2.927069623 2.516692769 3.337446476
1/1/2001 2.755462853 2.236608306 3.274317399 2.979227402 2.568850555 3.389604249
2/1/2001 2.826695322 2.307840662 3.345549982 3.028845372 2.618468503 3.439222242
3/1/2001 2.893456107 2.374601596 3.412310618 3.055364192 2.644987342 3.465741043
4/1/2001 2.952972718 2.434117731 3.471827705 3.100636213 2.690259293 3.511013133
5/1/2001 3.006983071 2.488128254 3.525837889 3.118445629 2.708068703 3.528822555
6/1/2001 3.051887097 2.533032429 3.570741765 3.145988195 2.735611277 3.556365113
7/1/2001 3.09130775 2.572452921 3.61016258 3.14984957 2.739472602 3.560226539
8/1/2001 3.120644181 2.601789886 3.639498475 3.159166787 2.74878987 3.569543705
9/1/2001 3.144499887 2.625645948 3.663353826 3.144905606 2.734528723 3.555282489
10/1/2001 3.158100673 2.639246785 3.676954561 3.140661571 2.730284702 3.551038439
11/1/2001 3.166601808 2.647748349 3.685455267 3.120390908 2.710014085 3.530767731
12/1/2001 3.164755405 2.64590211 3.683608701 3.124962066 2.714585305 3.535338827
1/1/2002 3.158724097 2.639870228 3.677577967 3.114623443 2.704246604 3.525000282
2/1/2002 3.142395102 2.623541225 3.661248978 3.132724899 2.72234808 3.543101718
3/1/2002 3.12312454 2.604270435 3.641978645 3.138168595 2.727791737 3.548545453
4/1/2002 3.094332924 2.575478567 3.613187281 3.163013861 2.752636978 3.573390743
5/1/2002 3.063251848 2.544397565 3.582106131 3.16868335 2.75830645 3.57906025
6/1/2002 3.02396034 2.50510616 3.542814521 3.186703856 2.776326974 3.597080737
7/1/2002 2.982307968 2.463454143 3.501161792 3.187980577 2.777603726 3.598357428
8/1/2002 2.933768552 2.414914564 3.45262254 3.204094828 2.793717958 3.614471697
9/1/2002 2.882964023 2.364110248 3.401817799 3.185486632 2.775109787 3.595863476
10/1/2002 2.827336006 2.308481877 3.346190135 3.183138762 2.772761859 3.593515665
11/1/2002 2.770370251 2.251515925 3.289224577 3.151141825 2.74076489 3.56151876
12/1/2002 2.710729242 2.191875878 3.229582607 3.110438912 2.700062069 3.520815755
1/1/2003 2.650659984 2.131806399 3.169513568 3.044163911 2.63378708 3.454540742
2/1/2003 2.590200716 2.071347193 3.109054239 2.958282521 2.547905665 3.368659377
3/1/2003 2.530943317 2.012090017 3.049796616 2.851208777 2.440831981 3.261585573
4/1/2003 2.472776592 1.953922896 2.991630289 2.728581124 2.318204272 3.138957977
5/1/2003 2.417294722 1.898441062 2.936148383 2.61242823 2.202051376 3.022805083
6/1/2003 2.364061456 1.845207641 2.882915271 2.48433349 2.073956627 2.894710353
7/1/2003 2.314699449 1.795845804 2.833553094 2.367351177 1.956974309 2.777728044
8/1/2003 2.268718497 1.749864695 2.787572299 2.263380754 1.853003887 2.673757622
9/1/2003 2.227361456 1.708508246 2.746214665 2.179911113 1.769534298 2.590287928
10/1/2003 2.189432202 1.670578802 2.708285603 2.111504566 1.701127759 2.521881374
11/1/2003 2.1556897 1.636836123 2.674543276 2.048940683 1.638563838 2.459317528
12/1/2003 2.12582837 1.606974582 2.644682159 1.999249562 1.588872688 2.409626435
1/1/2004 2.0991501 1.580296157 2.618004042 1.963053597 1.552676685 2.37343051
2/1/2004 2.076401183 1.557547967 2.595254399 1.928998701 1.51862186 2.339375541
3/1/2004 2.0553006 1.536446835 2.574154366 1.923986616 1.513609719 2.334363514
4/1/2004 2.03764855 1.518794926 2.556502174 1.919136051 1.508759118 2.329512984
5/1/2004 2.020597051 1.501744185 2.539449918 1.917845008 1.507468186 2.328221829
6/1/2004 2.006306256 1.487453245 2.525159268 1.927339107 1.51696226 2.337715954
7/1/2004 1.991431244 1.472578149 2.510284338 1.935766198 1.525389332 2.346143064
8/1/2004 1.978885186 1.460032126 2.497738246 1.932860411 1.522483553 2.343237268
9/1/2004 1.964997059 1.446144302 2.483849816 1.954608389 1.544231556 2.364985222
10/1/2004 1.953133875 1.434280849 2.471986901 1.955073245 1.544696405 2.365450085
11/1/2004 1.939784412 1.420931761 2.458637064 1.984235575 1.573858764 2.394612385
12/1/2004 1.927804125 1.408951513 2.446656736 1.997653399 1.587276635 2.408030162
1/1/2005 1.914564502 1.395711861 2.433417142 2.018096018 1.607719261 2.428472775
2/1/2005 1.902165745 1.383312618 2.421018873 2.034775231 1.62439844 2.445152021
3/1/2005 1.889605998 1.370752558 2.408459438 2.048810359 1.638433534 2.459187184
4/1/2005 1.877655471 1.35880204 2.396508902 2.050893411 1.64051659 2.461270232
5/1/2005 1.866297812 1.347444075 2.385151549 2.062947209 1.652570362 2.473324057
6/1/2005 1.855940485 1.33708719 2.374793781 2.069538204 1.659161402 2.479915006
7/1/2005 1.846458713 1.327605012 2.365312415 2.073895429 1.663518615 2.484272243
8/1/2005 1.8384766 1.31962233 2.357330869 2.092170367 1.681793448 2.502547286
9/1/2005 1.8312213 1.312367541 2.35007506 2.091574185 1.681197348 2.501951023
10/1/2005 1.825907609 1.307053712 2.344761505 2.107251143 1.696874267 2.517628019
11/1/2005 1.82154369 1.302689939 2.340397442 2.107553631 1.697176795 2.517930466
12/1/2005 1.819483322 1.300629254 2.338337389 2.118283529 1.707906633 2.528660426
1/1/2006 1.818340464 1.299486368 2.337194561 2.115423882 1.705046994 2.525800771
2/1/2006 1.820078396 1.301224921 2.338931871 2.129034852 1.718658023 2.53941168
3/1/2006 1.822604751 1.303751164 2.341458337 2.140956757 1.730579955 2.551333558
4/1/2006 1.827755144 1.308901275 2.346609014 2.157244057 1.746867209 2.567620905
5/1/2006 1.832483281 1.313629242 2.35133732 2.174902248 1.76452539 2.585279106
6/1/2006 1.839664665 1.32081072 2.358518611 2.189753442 1.779376589 2.600130295
7/1/2006 1.84635614 1.327502346 2.365209934 2.205498495 1.795121663 2.615875326
8/1/2006 1.855175871 1.336321773 2.374029969 2.2254339 1.815057036 2.635810763
9/1/2006 1.863824789 1.344970936 2.382678642 2.252036704 1.841659846 2.662413561
10/1/2006 1.873957884 1.355103802 2.392811966 2.264902652 1.854525782 2.675279522
11/1/2006 1.883352312 1.364498284 2.402206339 2.271872449 1.861495533 2.682249365
12/1/2006 1.893936197 1.375082702 2.412789692 2.273715166 1.863338339 2.684091994
1/1/2007 1.903585215 1.384731263 2.422439168 2.288442318 1.878065396 2.69881924
2/1/2007 1.913402585 1.394548825 2.432256345 2.286480745 1.876103847 2.696857643
3/1/2007 1.921778811 1.402925176 2.440632445 2.274327818 1.863950893 2.684704742
4/1/2007 1.929445804 1.410592452 2.448299157 2.269613315 1.859236442 2.679990188
5/1/2007 1.934992417 1.416139646 2.453845187 2.250375745 1.83999893 2.660752561
6/1/2007 1.939324302 1.420471439 2.458177166 2.224470416 1.814093621 2.634847211
7/1/2007 1.941614994 1.422762162 2.460467826 2.205910275 1.795533501 2.616287049
8/1/2007 1.942732049 1.423878671 2.461585428 2.150460535 1.740083701 2.56083737
9/1/2007 1.942084778 1.423231061 2.460938494 2.100863807 1.690486955 2.511240659
10/1/2007 1.940682031 1.42182901 2.459535051 2.0279 1.617523226 2.438276774
11/1/2007 1.938354788 1.419500642 2.457208934 1.971842299 1.561465455 2.382219143
12/1/2007 1.935515097 1.416660981 2.454369214 1.900916543 1.490539658 2.311293427
1/1/2008 1.932708253 1.413854401 2.451562105 1.837156674 1.426779891 2.247533457
2/1/2008 1.929379627 1.410525629 2.448233626 1.768690658 1.358313855 2.179067461
3/1/2008 1.92720969 1.408355723 2.446063657 1.725150808 1.314774063 2.135527553
4/1/2008 1.924373129 1.405518593 2.443227664 1.675379096 1.265002299 2.085755892
5/1/2008 1.923360505 1.404505821 2.44221519 1.654522061 1.244145253 2.064898869
6/1/2008 1.922254043 1.403398793 2.441109294 1.637042446 1.226665593 2.047419298
7/1/2008 1.922527037 1.403671575 2.441382499 1.636453853 1.226076928 2.046830778
8/1/2008 1.92305699 1.404201214 2.441912767 1.648372674 1.23799572 2.058749628
9/1/2008 1.924041957 1.405186281 2.442897632 1.678670842 1.268293818 2.089047866
10/1/2008 1.925558238 1.40670306 2.444413417 1.710831971 1.300455006 2.121208937
11/1/2008 1.927145416 1.408290378 2.446000454 1.776820124 1.366443116 2.187197132
12/1/2008 1.930379133 1.41152467 2.449233595 1.824807468 1.414430501 2.235184436
1/1/2009 1.933877819 1.415023943 2.452731694 1.883760963 1.473384057 2.294137869
2/1/2009 1.940716305 1.421862819 2.45956979 1.949403484 1.53902659 2.359780377
3/1/2009 1.94813229 1.429279042 2.466985537 2.006975833 1.59659898 2.417352686
4/1/2009 1.960211397 1.441358994 2.4790638 2.073912607 1.663535831 2.484289384
5/1/2009 1.973848909 1.454995775 2.492702042 2.11918668 1.708809838 2.529563521
6/1/2009 1.992640338 1.47378732 2.511493355 2.168379779 1.7580029 2.578756657
7/1/2009 2.014127167 1.495274192 2.532980141 2.195351208 1.784974325 2.60572809
8/1/2009 2.041006553 1.522153388 2.559859719 2.226787023 1.81641008 2.637163966
9/1/2009 2.070816735 1.551964472 2.589668998 2.237235972 1.826859083 2.647612862
10/1/2009 2.10574419 1.586892019 2.624596361 2.27409474 1.863717882 2.684471597
11/1/2009 2.143556166 1.624704183 2.66240815 2.258527994 1.848151081 2.668904908
12/1/2009 2.185428555 1.666576681 2.704280429 2.285615047 1.875238173 2.695991922
1/1/2010 2.229469135 1.710617898 2.748320372 2.284593816 1.874216953 2.69497068
2/1/2010 2.275823451 1.756972663 2.794674238 2.30825332 1.897876563 2.718630076
3/1/2010 2.323804842 1.804953825 2.842655859 2.294938433 1.884561615 2.70531525
4/1/2010 2.372209237 1.853358553 2.891059921 2.315089713 1.904712984 2.725466441
5/1/2010 2.421545598 1.902694614 2.940396582 2.317908237 1.907531474 2.728285
6/1/2010 2.469883867 1.951033036 2.988734699 2.339314031 1.928937328 2.749690733
7/1/2010 2.518233327 1.999382562 3.037084091 2.354413035 1.944036366 2.764789705
8/1/2010 2.564160374 2.045309305 3.083011442 2.373834731 1.963458078 2.784211384
9/1/2010 2.609604384 2.09075242 3.128456348 2.385806632 1.975429892 2.796183371
10/1/2010 2.651388012 2.132535862 3.170240162 2.394627439 1.984250683 2.805004195
11/1/2010 2.692071919 2.173219598 3.210924241 2.406074015 1.995697271 2.81645076
12/1/2010 2.727435466 2.208582687 3.246288245 2.402694727 1.992317901 2.813071553
1/1/2011 2.761020287 2.242167158 3.279873416 2.418355305 2.007978453 2.828732156
2/1/2011 2.788282783 2.269429569 3.307135997 2.403362116 1.9929852 2.813739033
3/1/2011 2.811995038 2.293141885 3.330848191 2.43388232 2.023505411 2.844259229
4/1/2011 2.828584318 2.309731529 3.347437107 2.411922167 2.001545261 2.822299074
5/1/2011 2.840118719 2.321266092 3.358971347 2.431211795 2.020834903 2.841588687
6/1/2011 2.844281123 2.325429135 3.363133111 2.413437208 2.003060386 2.82381403
7/1/2011 2.84368246 2.324830904 3.362534015 2.41496438 2.004587624 2.825341137
8/1/2011 2.835378277 2.316526197 3.354230356 2.424718418 2.01434163 2.835095207
9/1/2011 2.822784121 2.303932227 3.341636016 2.431062986 2.020686199 2.841439773
10/1/2011 2.802011997 2.283160142 3.320863853 2.431609713 2.021232981 2.841986444
11/1/2011 2.777375855 2.258523896 3.296227814 2.434421946 2.024045202 2.844798691
12/1/2011 2.744577067 2.225724804 3.263429329 2.425830047 2.015453306 2.836206788
1/1/2012 2.708992641 2.190139867 3.227845415 2.416220814 2.005844005 2.826597623
2/1/2012 2.664895067 2.146042378 3.183747757 2.405043279 1.994666495 2.815420064
3/1/2012 2.619430081 2.100576828 3.138283333 2.3712218 1.960844953 2.781598647
4/1/2012 2.565304186 2.046450983 3.084157389 2.358719927 1.948343055 2.769096799
5/1/2012 2.510612806 1.991759528 3.029466084 2.294962894 1.884586034 2.705339754
6/1/2012 2.446580139 1.927727395 2.965432882 2.254200646 1.843823815 2.664577477
7/1/2012 2.38205725 1.863204253 2.900910247 2.176588473 1.766211648 2.586965299
8/1/2012 2.307476332 1.788623482 2.826329183 2.101899981 1.691523133 2.512276829
9/1/2012 2.232380526 1.713527846 2.751233206 2.017410913 1.607034105 2.42778772
10/1/2012 2.147218317 1.628365491 2.666071142 1.94385979 1.533482943 2.354236637
11/1/2012 2.06091018 1.542057417 2.579762943 1.85684897 1.446472118 2.267225821
12/1/2012 1.964503247 1.445650278 2.483356217 1.777926071 1.367549173 2.18830297
1/1/2013 1.866350983 1.347498158 2.385203808 1.684409036 1.274032122 2.09478595
2/1/2013 1.758836116 1.239983489 2.277688743 1.59531346 1.184936549 2.005690372
3/1/2013 1.650434803 1.131582246 2.169287361 1.491788082 1.081411153 1.902165012
4/1/2013 1.532877731 1.014025876 2.051729587 1.374675809 0.964298956 1.785052662
5/1/2013 1.414911037 0.896059348 1.933762725 1.268785543 0.858408723 1.679162363
6/1/2013 1.289564595 0.770713274 1.808415917 1.153805284 0.743428527 1.564182042
7/1/2013 1.16400972 0.645158021 1.682861418 1.050290049 0.639913283 1.460666815
8/1/2013 1.033454978 0.51460312 1.552306836 0.935363091 0.524986324 1.345739858
9/1/2013 0.903583631 0.384731887 1.422435376 0.827821243 0.417444544 1.238197941
10/1/2013 0.771573915 0.25272209 1.29042574 0.709063994 0.298687329 1.119440659
11/1/2013 0.641456981 0.122604424 1.160309537 0.601397269 0.191020589 1.011773948
12/1/2013 0.513352918 -0.005500502 1.032206338 0.492801297 0.082424533 0.90317806
1/1/2014 0.38818888 -0.130665127 0.907042886 0.410259048 -1.18E-04 0.820635843
2/1/2014 0.269211091 -0.24964292 0.788065102 0.31607756 -0.094299222 0.726454342
3/1/2014 0.154373779 -0.364481075 0.673228634 0.258099331 -0.152277524 0.668476186
4/1/2014 0.04994234 -0.468912631 0.568797311 0.194101773 -0.216275096 0.604478642
5/1/2014 -0.048898972 -0.567754027 0.469956084 0.171478551 -0.238898327 0.58185543
6/1/2014 -0.133828255 -0.65268335 0.38502684 0.146094729 -0.264282125 0.556471582
7/1/2014 -0.211430909 -0.73028611 0.307424293 0.150797048 -0.25957985 0.561173946
8/1/2014 -0.272746481 -0.791601805 0.246108843 0.167055525 -0.243321344 0.577432393
9/1/2014 -0.325685768 -0.844541113 0.193169576 0.203040384 -0.20733653 0.613417299
10/1/2014 -0.361370258 -0.880225722 0.157485206 0.258344055 -0.152032843 0.668720954
11/1/2014 -0.387756804 -0.90661184 0.131098231 0.330854188 -0.0795227 0.741231076
12/1/2014 -0.397054863 -0.91591014 0.121800414 0.417627612 0.007250726 0.828004499
1/1/2015 -0.397446498 -0.916302363 0.121409367 0.5178661 0.107489075 0.928243126
2/1/2015 -0.3818861 -0.900741036 0.136968836 0.630633136 0.220256217 1.041010055
3/1/2015 -0.358591603 -0.877446745 0.16026354 0.741067279 0.330690281 1.151444278
4/1/2015 -0.321953109 -0.84080735 0.196901132 0.855018129 0.444641228 1.26539503
5/1/2015 -0.279208885 -0.798062575 0.239644805 0.94983572 0.53945884 1.360212599
6/1/2015 -0.227191819 -0.746046287 0.291662648 1.049355073 0.638978094 1.459732052
7/1/2015 -0.171518617 -0.690372708 0.347335474 1.133047986 0.722670956 1.543425016
8/1/2015 -0.109992959 -0.628846799 0.408860881 1.209249383 0.798872365 1.619626401
9/1/2015 -0.047188984 -0.56604224 0.471664271 1.275428547 0.865051544 1.68580555
10/1/2015 0.018853419 -0.499999319 0.537706158 1.332959861 0.922582891 1.743336832
11/1/2015 0.084292964 -0.434558869 0.603144798 1.382690049 0.972313207 1.79306689
12/1/2015 0.151361447 -0.367489899 0.670212792 1.431125096 1.02074831 1.841501882
1/1/2016 0.217792863 -0.301058502 0.736644228 1.47258575 1.062209035 1.882962465
2/1/2016 0.283948731 -0.234901981 0.802799443 1.518103022 1.107726414 1.928479631
3/1/2016 0.349248903 -0.169603299 0.868101105 1.556357045 1.145980363 1.966733728
4/1/2016 0.412807687 -0.10604502 0.931660394 1.608686798 1.19831004 2.019063555
5/1/2016 0.475616438 -0.04323656 0.994469435 1.6487083 1.238331582 2.059085017
6/1/2016 0.53658082 0.017726278 1.055435362 1.698199753 1.287822851 2.108576654
7/1/2016 0.596305478 0.07745163 1.115159326 1.726827312 1.316450475 2.13720415
8/1/2016 0.654230456 0.135376391 1.173084521 1.759333414 1.348956603 2.169710225
9/1/2016 0.710141488 0.191287328 1.228995647 1.775859036 1.365482183 2.186235888
10/1/2016 0.76462811 0.24577381 1.28348241 1.798334499 1.387957638 2.208711359
11/1/2016 0.816038712 0.297184549 1.334892875 1.803453028 1.393076159 2.213829898
12/1/2016 0.865911149 0.34705626 1.384766037 1.818335078 1.407958089 2.228712066
1/1/2017 0.910730702 0.39187579 1.429585614 1.818654394 1.408277353 2.229031434
2/1/2017 0.953892444 0.435038737 1.472746151 1.810918091 1.400541123 2.22129506
3/1/2017 0.989704954 0.470850967 1.508558942 1.785044149 1.374667133 2.195421164
4/1/2017 1.024039189 0.50518607 1.542892307 1.763316745 1.352939727 2.173693763
5/1/2017 1.049042916 0.530190531 1.567895301 1.740105485 1.329728554 2.150482415
6/1/2017 1.071738556 0.55288638 1.590590731 1.72151132 1.311134346 2.131888295
7/1/2017 1.085327049 0.56647562 1.604178477 1.709661262 1.29928435 2.120038174
8/1/2017 1.095340037 0.576488789 1.614191285 1.704099417 1.293722502 2.114476332
9/1/2017 1.097401154 0.578550638 1.616251669 1.705020257 1.294643379 2.115397134
10/1/2017 1.095548092 0.576697252 1.614398931 1.714238449 1.303861571 2.124615327
11/1/2017 1.087585954 0.568734809 1.606437098 1.732981848 1.322604843 2.143358854
12/1/2017 1.076591193 0.557741045 1.59544134 1.74560607 1.335229232 2.155982908
1/1/2018 1.061622127 0.542773714 1.58047054 1.772656035 1.362279403 2.183032667
2/1/2018 1.043986207 0.52513768 1.562834734 1.792994088 1.382617571 2.203370605
3/1/2018 1.024758955 0.505908644 1.543609265 1.8285333 1.418156634 2.238909967
4/1/2018 1.003512874 0.484661756 1.522363991 1.838107434 1.427730698 2.248484169
5/1/2018 0.982507985 0.463656522 1.501359447 1.863743458 1.453366763 2.274120153
6/1/2018 0.960569828 0.441717982 1.479421674 1.865804931 1.455428198 2.276181664
7/1/2018 0.939099529 0.420246435 1.457952624 1.892277893 1.481901093 2.302654692
8/1/2018 0.917963874 0.399110545 1.436817203 1.878690272 1.468313376 2.289067168
9/1/2018 0.897086037 0.378232879 1.415939194 1.871318706 1.460941889 2.281695523
10/1/2018 0.877900505 0.359047783 1.396753226 1.853976075 1.443599301 2.264352849
11/1/2018 0.858800725 0.33994568 1.37765577 1.839195192 1.428818129 2.249572255
12/1/2018 0.842323509 0.323468652 1.361178367 1.821233015 1.4108559 2.23161013
1/1/2019 0.825650101 0.306796801 1.344503401 1.796338047 1.385961037 2.206715058
2/1/2019 0.813073528 0.294219526 1.33192753 1.76700052 1.356623471 2.177377569
3/1/2019 0.799673494 0.280820167 1.31852682 1.748801841 1.338424693 2.159178988
4/1/2019 0.792196106 0.2733437 1.311048512 1.728686905 1.318309987 2.139063824
5/1/2019 0.783616476 0.264764847 1.302468106 1.717402675 1.307025716 2.127779634
6/1/2019 0.782270698 0.263419499 1.301121897 1.697473554 1.287096763 2.107850344
7/1/2019 0.780739482 0.26188831 1.299590655 1.67270009 1.262323248 2.083076932
8/1/2019 0.786703591 0.267851372 1.305555811 1.653481079 1.243104166 2.063857992
9/1/2019 0.79445815 0.275605041 1.313311259 1.618949279 1.208572226 2.029326333
10/1/2019 0.810027368 0.291176376 1.32887836 1.590558887 1.180182075 2.000935699
11/1/2019 0.829039328 0.310186162 1.347892494 1.553926203 1.143549222 1.964303185
12/1/2019 0.855488734 0.336636534 1.374340933 1.527409243 1.117032285 1.937786202
1/1/2020 0.886938373 0.368086158 1.405790589 1.489238164 1.078861306 1.899615021
2/1/2020 0.925166377 0.40631311 1.444019643 1.475283311 1.064906294 1.885660327
3/1/2020 0.969899255 0.451045666 1.488752844 1.434333271 1.023956213 1.844710328
4/1/2020 1.020364931 0.501509972 1.53921989 1.42569435 1.015317098 1.836071601
5/1/2020 1.079593754 0.560740618 1.598446889 1.404964276 0.994587171 1.81534138
6/1/2020 1.14307789 0.624223535 1.661932246 1.45857653 1.048199294 1.868953767
7/1/2020 1.216998455 0.698143672 1.735853238 1.490090644 1.079713242 1.900468046
8/1/2020 1.292630001 0.773775764 1.811484238 1.592183965 1.181806513 2.002561417
9/1/2020 1.380185339 0.861330714 1.899039965 1.687528511 1.277150959 2.097906063
10/1/2020 1.46822664 0.949373342 1.987079938 1.835402708 1.425025078 2.245780339
11/1/2020 1.567903177 1.049049416 2.086756937 1.972466005 1.562088346 2.382843663
12/1/2020 1.665621314 1.146765933 2.184476694 2.158387739 1.748009557 2.568765922
1/1/2021 1.774946065 1.256089018 2.293803112 2.325970894 1.915592386 2.736349403
2/1/2021 1.878516057 1.35966223 2.397369885 2.558549096 2.148170652 2.96892754
3/1/2021 1.991939255 1.473085322 2.510793188 2.767752233 2.357373725 3.17813074
4/1/2021 2.100713829 1.581860872 2.619566786 3.078524946 2.668146378 3.488903514
5/1/2021 2.217204927 1.69835559 2.736054265 3.316462801 2.906084628 3.726840973
6/1/2021 2.329910905 1.811062503 2.848759307 3.601389078 3.191011227 4.011766929
7/1/2021 2.446861462 1.92801392 2.965709004 3.818546677 3.408168941 4.228924414
8/1/2021 2.560068747 2.041217658 3.078919837 4.060270307 3.649892471 4.470648143
9/1/2021 2.673452576 2.154600501 3.192304652 4.238743151 3.828365098 4.649121204
10/1/2021 2.781867673 2.263012179 3.300723166 4.441898066 4.031519868 4.852276264
11/1/2021 2.88726305 2.368402727 3.406123372 4.584303627 4.17392448 4.994682774
12/1/2021 2.986193629 2.46733387 3.505053387 4.741007744 4.330628649 5.151386839
1/1/2022 3.078308298 2.559443544 3.597173051 4.848561162 4.438180794 5.258941529
2/1/2022 3.163827363 2.644962439 3.682692287 4.931489138 4.521108356 5.34186992
3/1/2022 3.239357997 2.720489629 3.758226366 4.980284442 4.569901905 5.390666979
4/1/2022 3.306065727 2.787189401 3.824942052 4.962170859 4.551786502 5.372555216
5/1/2022 3.360595374 2.841705735 3.879485012 4.928322773 4.517934185 5.338711362
6/1/2022 3.403656577 2.884744436 3.922568719 4.834808233 4.424414784 5.245201682
7/1/2022 3.432894043 2.913959089 3.951828996 4.73129944 4.320898461 5.141700419
8/1/2022 3.44989627 2.930923921 3.968868619 4.570573666 4.160163944 4.980983388
9/1/2022 3.450789136 2.931764104 3.969814168 4.410398174 3.999974067 4.82082228
10/1/2022 3.439666756 2.920577627 3.958755886 4.181916743 3.771477185 4.592356302
11/1/2022 3.410619049 2.891441058 3.92979704 3.962459281 3.551996257 4.372922305
12/1/2022 3.371072404 2.851783147 3.890361661 3.699866654 3.289377037 4.110356271
1/1/2023 3.313042465 2.793616158 3.832468771 3.442688432 3.032162371 3.853214493
2/1/2023 3.24598157 2.726378074 3.765585067 3.164499484 2.75393094 3.575068027
3/1/2023 3.160278837 2.64046344 3.680094235 2.909806044 2.499181504 3.320430583
4/1/2023 3.066542737 2.546470821 3.586614652 2.640802126 2.230112955 3.051491296
5/1/2023 2.955407014 2.435048591 3.475765437 2.412744231 2.001975351 2.823513112
6/1/2023 2.838093265 2.317401851 3.358784679 2.162190895 1.751329942 2.573051848
7/1/2023 2.707067487 2.18601255 3.228122424 1.975830762 1.5648611 2.386800425
8/1/2023 2.572187077 2.050740213 3.093633941 1.780122149 1.369028106 2.191216193
9/1/2023 2.428491004 1.906637443 2.950344565 1.63857814 1.227345731 2.049810549
10/1/2023 2.285237465 1.762966728 2.807508203 1.495145414 1.083754148 1.90653668
11/1/2023 2.138230729 1.615567238 2.66089422 1.412822933 1.001268106 1.82437776
12/1/2023 1.995161223 1.472134962 2.518187484 1.295267171 0.883526781 1.707007561
1/1/2024 1.853283007 1.329959473 2.376606541 1.24390725 0.831993662 1.655820839
2/1/2024 1.71773522 1.194171829 2.24129861 1.147979029 0.735870093 1.560087965
3/1/2024 1.587066293 1.063339972 2.110792614 1.128187986 0.715918543 1.540457429
4/1/2024 1.464344449 0.940511773 1.988177126 1.053871257 0.641419076 1.466323439
5/1/2024 1.348526007 0.824602375 1.872449639 1.049106891 0.636524313 1.461689468
6/1/2024 1.241602197 0.717499131 1.765705264 0.997505338 0.584748036 1.410262639
7/1/2024 1.140822591 0.6162719 1.665373281 0.995860722 0.582944622 1.408776821
8/1/2024 1.04854096 0.52302276 1.574059161 0.955264188 0.542045246 1.368483131
9/1/2024 0.960499603 0.433060512 1.487938694 0.962762515 0.549054461 1.376470568
10/1/2024 0.879658897 0.348827534 1.410490261 0.939680641 0.525030864 1.354330418
11/1/2024 0.801565652 0.264999696 1.338131607 0.94225233 0.525859699 1.358644961
12/1/2024 0.729291651 0.183813402 1.2747699 0.936353612 0.516996649 1.355710576
1/1/2025 0.65790325 0.098963229 1.21684327 0.944237371 0.519666778 1.368807963
2/1/2025 0.591615 0.013581837 1.169648164 0.975673586 0.543083212 1.408263961
3/1/2025 0.525202878 -0.079263148 1.129668904 0.98447454 0.538770844 1.430178237
4/1/2025 0.463757359 -0.175353003 1.102867722 1.011925549 0.547701424 1.476149674
5/1/2025 0.401363584 -0.282224721 1.084951889 1.021677862 0.529255579 1.514100146
6/1/2025 0.342548942 -0.395456757 1.080554641 1.039473941 0.510417202 1.56853068
7/1/2025 0.284146231 -0.519284588 1.087577051 1.050759606 0.469288969 1.632230242

Panel (b) Since 2018
Percent

Date Europe level Europe level lower bound of 90% confidence interval Europe level upper bound of 90% confidence interval N.America level N. America level lower bound of 90% confidence interval N.America level upper bound of 90% confidence interval
1/1/2018 1.061622127 0.542773714 1.58047054 1.772656035 1.362279403 2.183032667
2/1/2018 1.043986207 0.52513768 1.562834734 1.792994088 1.382617571 2.203370605
3/1/2018 1.024758955 0.505908644 1.543609265 1.8285333 1.418156634 2.238909967
4/1/2018 1.003512874 0.484661756 1.522363991 1.838107434 1.427730698 2.248484169
5/1/2018 0.982507985 0.463656522 1.501359447 1.863743458 1.453366763 2.274120153
6/1/2018 0.960569828 0.441717982 1.479421674 1.865804931 1.455428198 2.276181664
7/1/2018 0.939099529 0.420246435 1.457952624 1.892277893 1.481901093 2.302654692
8/1/2018 0.917963874 0.399110545 1.436817203 1.878690272 1.468313376 2.289067168
9/1/2018 0.897086037 0.378232879 1.415939194 1.871318706 1.460941889 2.281695523
10/1/2018 0.877900505 0.359047783 1.396753226 1.853976075 1.443599301 2.264352849
11/1/2018 0.858800725 0.33994568 1.37765577 1.839195192 1.428818129 2.249572255
12/1/2018 0.842323509 0.323468652 1.361178367 1.821233015 1.4108559 2.23161013
1/1/2019 0.825650101 0.306796801 1.344503401 1.796338047 1.385961037 2.206715058
2/1/2019 0.813073528 0.294219526 1.33192753 1.76700052 1.356623471 2.177377569
3/1/2019 0.799673494 0.280820167 1.31852682 1.748801841 1.338424693 2.159178988
4/1/2019 0.792196106 0.2733437 1.311048512 1.728686905 1.318309987 2.139063824
5/1/2019 0.783616476 0.264764847 1.302468106 1.717402675 1.307025716 2.127779634
6/1/2019 0.782270698 0.263419499 1.301121897 1.697473554 1.287096763 2.107850344
7/1/2019 0.780739482 0.26188831 1.299590655 1.67270009 1.262323248 2.083076932
8/1/2019 0.786703591 0.267851372 1.305555811 1.653481079 1.243104166 2.063857992
9/1/2019 0.79445815 0.275605041 1.313311259 1.618949279 1.208572226 2.029326333
10/1/2019 0.810027368 0.291176376 1.32887836 1.590558887 1.180182075 2.000935699
11/1/2019 0.829039328 0.310186162 1.347892494 1.553926203 1.143549222 1.964303185
12/1/2019 0.855488734 0.336636534 1.374340933 1.527409243 1.117032285 1.937786202
1/1/2020 0.886938373 0.368086158 1.405790589 1.489238164 1.078861306 1.899615021
2/1/2020 0.925166377 0.40631311 1.444019643 1.475283311 1.064906294 1.885660327
3/1/2020 0.969899255 0.451045666 1.488752844 1.434333271 1.023956213 1.844710328
4/1/2020 1.020364931 0.501509972 1.53921989 1.42569435 1.015317098 1.836071601
5/1/2020 1.079593754 0.560740618 1.598446889 1.404964276 0.994587171 1.81534138
6/1/2020 1.14307789 0.624223535 1.661932246 1.45857653 1.048199294 1.868953767
7/1/2020 1.216998455 0.698143672 1.735853238 1.490090644 1.079713242 1.900468046
8/1/2020 1.292630001 0.773775764 1.811484238 1.592183965 1.181806513 2.002561417
9/1/2020 1.380185339 0.861330714 1.899039965 1.687528511 1.277150959 2.097906063
10/1/2020 1.46822664 0.949373342 1.987079938 1.835402708 1.425025078 2.245780339
11/1/2020 1.567903177 1.049049416 2.086756937 1.972466005 1.562088346 2.382843663
12/1/2020 1.665621314 1.146765933 2.184476694 2.158387739 1.748009557 2.568765922
1/1/2021 1.774946065 1.256089018 2.293803112 2.325970894 1.915592386 2.736349403
2/1/2021 1.878516057 1.35966223 2.397369885 2.558549096 2.148170652 2.96892754
3/1/2021 1.991939255 1.473085322 2.510793188 2.767752233 2.357373725 3.17813074
4/1/2021 2.100713829 1.581860872 2.619566786 3.078524946 2.668146378 3.488903514
5/1/2021 2.217204927 1.69835559 2.736054265 3.316462801 2.906084628 3.726840973
6/1/2021 2.329910905 1.811062503 2.848759307 3.601389078 3.191011227 4.011766929
7/1/2021 2.446861462 1.92801392 2.965709004 3.818546677 3.408168941 4.228924414
8/1/2021 2.560068747 2.041217658 3.078919837 4.060270307 3.649892471 4.470648143
9/1/2021 2.673452576 2.154600501 3.192304652 4.238743151 3.828365098 4.649121204
10/1/2021 2.781867673 2.263012179 3.300723166 4.441898066 4.031519868 4.852276264
11/1/2021 2.88726305 2.368402727 3.406123372 4.584303627 4.17392448 4.994682774
12/1/2021 2.986193629 2.46733387 3.505053387 4.741007744 4.330628649 5.151386839
1/1/2022 3.078308298 2.559443544 3.597173051 4.848561162 4.438180794 5.258941529
2/1/2022 3.163827363 2.644962439 3.682692287 4.931489138 4.521108356 5.34186992
3/1/2022 3.239357997 2.720489629 3.758226366 4.980284442 4.569901905 5.390666979
4/1/2022 3.306065727 2.787189401 3.824942052 4.962170859 4.551786502 5.372555216
5/1/2022 3.360595374 2.841705735 3.879485012 4.928322773 4.517934185 5.338711362
6/1/2022 3.403656577 2.884744436 3.922568719 4.834808233 4.424414784 5.245201682
7/1/2022 3.432894043 2.913959089 3.951828996 4.73129944 4.320898461 5.141700419
8/1/2022 3.44989627 2.930923921 3.968868619 4.570573666 4.160163944 4.980983388
9/1/2022 3.450789136 2.931764104 3.969814168 4.410398174 3.999974067 4.82082228
10/1/2022 3.439666756 2.920577627 3.958755886 4.181916743 3.771477185 4.592356302
11/1/2022 3.410619049 2.891441058 3.92979704 3.962459281 3.551996257 4.372922305
12/1/2022 3.371072404 2.851783147 3.890361661 3.699866654 3.289377037 4.110356271
1/1/2023 3.313042465 2.793616158 3.832468771 3.442688432 3.032162371 3.853214493
2/1/2023 3.24598157 2.726378074 3.765585067 3.164499484 2.75393094 3.575068027
3/1/2023 3.160278837 2.64046344 3.680094235 2.909806044 2.499181504 3.320430583
4/1/2023 3.066542737 2.546470821 3.586614652 2.640802126 2.230112955 3.051491296
5/1/2023 2.955407014 2.435048591 3.475765437 2.412744231 2.001975351 2.823513112
6/1/2023 2.838093265 2.317401851 3.358784679 2.162190895 1.751329942 2.573051848
7/1/2023 2.707067487 2.18601255 3.228122424 1.975830762 1.5648611 2.386800425
8/1/2023 2.572187077 2.050740213 3.093633941 1.780122149 1.369028106 2.191216193
9/1/2023 2.428491004 1.906637443 2.950344565 1.63857814 1.227345731 2.049810549
10/1/2023 2.285237465 1.762966728 2.807508203 1.495145414 1.083754148 1.90653668
11/1/2023 2.138230729 1.615567238 2.66089422 1.412822933 1.001268106 1.82437776
12/1/2023 1.995161223 1.472134962 2.518187484 1.295267171 0.883526781 1.707007561
1/1/2024 1.853283007 1.329959473 2.376606541 1.24390725 0.831993662 1.655820839
2/1/2024 1.71773522 1.194171829 2.24129861 1.147979029 0.735870093 1.560087965
3/1/2024 1.587066293 1.063339972 2.110792614 1.128187986 0.715918543 1.540457429
4/1/2024 1.464344449 0.940511773 1.988177126 1.053871257 0.641419076 1.466323439
5/1/2024 1.348526007 0.824602375 1.872449639 1.049106891 0.636524313 1.461689468
6/1/2024 1.241602197 0.717499131 1.765705264 0.997505338 0.584748036 1.410262639
7/1/2024 1.140822591 0.6162719 1.665373281 0.995860722 0.582944622 1.408776821
8/1/2024 1.04854096 0.52302276 1.574059161 0.955264188 0.542045246 1.368483131
9/1/2024 0.960499603 0.433060512 1.487938694 0.962762515 0.549054461 1.376470568
10/1/2024 0.879658897 0.348827534 1.410490261 0.939680641 0.525030864 1.354330418
11/1/2024 0.801565652 0.264999696 1.338131607 0.94225233 0.525859699 1.358644961
12/1/2024 0.729291651 0.183813402 1.2747699 0.936353612 0.516996649 1.355710576
1/1/2025 0.65790325 0.098963229 1.21684327 0.944237371 0.519666778 1.368807963
2/1/2025 0.591615 0.013581837 1.169648164 0.975673586 0.543083212 1.408263961
3/1/2025 0.525202878 -0.079263148 1.129668904 0.98447454 0.538770844 1.430178237
4/1/2025 0.463757359 -0.175353003 1.102867722 1.011925549 0.547701424 1.476149674
5/1/2025 0.401363584 -0.282224721 1.084951889 1.021677862 0.529255579 1.514100146
6/1/2025 0.342548942 -0.395456757 1.080554641 1.039473941 0.510417202 1.56853068
7/1/2025 0.284146231 -0.519284588 1.087577051 1.050759606 0.469288969 1.632230242

Figure 1a plots the monthly level of our estimated North America and Europe regional components over time from January 1975 to July 2025, along with 90 percent confidence intervals. The Y axis ranges from -6 percent to 8 percent. There are two sets of lines charted on the plot.

The first set of lines is labeled “N. America level”. A solid black line designates the point estimate of the North America regional component and ranges from about -5 percent to 7 percent. Two thinner solid black lines demarcate the lower and upper bounds of the 90 percent confidence interval for the North America regional component. The area between the lower and upper bounds is shaded in blue.

The second set of lines is labeled “Europe level”. A dot-dashed black line designates the point estimate of the Europe regional component and ranges from about -3 percent to 7 percent. Two thinner dot-dashed black lines demarcate the lower and upper bounds of the 90 percent confidence interval for the Europe regional component. The area between the lower and upper bounds is shaded in red.

Thick solid line and thick dot-dashed line show the estimated posterior means of the North America and Europe regional components, respectively. The thin solid and thin dot-dashed lines denote the edges of their respective 90% confidence intervals. Panel (A) plots the estimated Europe and North America regional components of core inflation over the from January 1975 to July 2025. Panel (B) plots these components since 2018.

Source: Authors' calculations.

Return to text

Figure 2: Global Component Over Time

Panel (a) Full sample
Percent

Date Global component Upper bound of 90% confidence interval Lower bound of 90% confidence interval
1/1/1975 16.40442207 16.7342906 16.07455353
2/1/1975 15.66860145 15.99846973 15.33873317
3/1/1975 14.98687779 15.31674556 14.65701003
4/1/1975 14.31237982 14.64224733 13.98251232
5/1/1975 13.64803588 13.97790281 13.31816895
6/1/1975 12.98377167 13.31363837 12.65390497
7/1/1975 12.35799163 12.68785779 12.02812548
8/1/1975 11.70791381 12.03777979 11.37804783
9/1/1975 11.17214853 11.50201405 10.84228301
10/1/1975 10.61325873 10.94312413 10.28339333
11/1/1975 10.26720674 10.59707178 9.937341694
12/1/1975 9.934534736 10.2643997 9.604669768
1/1/1976 9.808935249 10.13879996 9.479070542
2/1/1976 9.626268488 9.956133159 9.296403817
3/1/1976 9.570889324 9.900753812 9.241024835
4/1/1976 9.469546211 9.799410685 9.139681738
5/1/1976 9.445020622 9.774884972 9.115156273
6/1/1976 9.445952304 9.775816651 9.116087957
7/1/1976 9.470733581 9.800597848 9.140869314
8/1/1976 9.498064223 9.827928489 9.168199958
9/1/1976 9.518103294 9.847967514 9.188239073
10/1/1976 9.563321346 9.893185566 9.233457127
11/1/1976 9.528849228 9.858713424 9.198985031
12/1/1976 9.561274782 9.891138972 9.231410593
1/1/1977 9.410778813 9.740642987 9.080914639
2/1/1977 9.371153156 9.701017319 9.041288992
3/1/1977 9.233526564 9.563390716 8.903662412
4/1/1977 9.152470553 9.482334694 8.822606413
5/1/1977 8.99242543 9.322289573 8.662561287
6/1/1977 8.799257057 9.129121174 8.469392941
7/1/1977 8.512510141 8.842374271 8.182646011
8/1/1977 8.263404589 8.593268702 7.933540475
9/1/1977 7.911041182 8.240905291 7.581177072
10/1/1977 7.607016235 7.936880337 7.277152133
11/1/1977 7.233768313 7.563632414 6.903904213
12/1/1977 6.879481441 7.209345537 6.549617346
1/1/1978 6.549958017 6.879822107 6.220093927
2/1/1978 6.246821419 6.576685503 5.916957336
3/1/1978 5.973756493 6.303620559 5.643892428
4/1/1978 5.667047072 5.996911161 5.337182984
5/1/1978 5.465838569 5.79570264 5.135974498
6/1/1978 5.252034447 5.581898517 4.922170378
7/1/1978 5.119726376 5.449590444 4.789862308
8/1/1978 4.974299171 5.304163241 4.644435101
9/1/1978 4.879281131 5.209145173 4.549417089
10/1/1978 4.769659811 5.09952384 4.439795782
11/1/1978 4.712608817 5.042472842 4.382744793
12/1/1978 4.598861985 4.928726028 4.268997943
1/1/1979 4.53228888 4.862152918 4.202424843
2/1/1979 4.440519468 4.770383502 4.110655434
3/1/1979 4.399287166 4.72915123 4.069423103
4/1/1979 4.34801611 4.677880174 4.018152046
5/1/1979 4.324158835 4.654022875 3.994294795
6/1/1979 4.302821541 4.632685583 3.972957499
7/1/1979 4.319271329 4.649135372 3.989407285
8/1/1979 4.345528517 4.675392595 4.015664439
9/1/1979 4.449470217 4.779334288 4.119606146
10/1/1979 4.527111914 4.856975974 4.197247853
11/1/1979 4.666344121 4.996208119 4.336480123
12/1/1979 4.818500846 5.148364891 4.488636801
1/1/1980 4.993359192 5.323223221 4.663495163
2/1/1980 5.178102289 5.5079663 4.848238279
3/1/1980 5.326941229 5.656805255 4.997077204
4/1/1980 5.530949877 5.8608139 5.201085853
5/1/1980 5.650345219 5.980209205 5.320481233
6/1/1980 5.789825754 6.119689748 5.459961759
7/1/1980 5.793274017 6.123138026 5.463410008
8/1/1980 5.831241686 6.1611057 5.501377672
9/1/1980 5.757421534 6.087285576 5.427557491
10/1/1980 5.709635068 6.039499105 5.37977103
11/1/1980 5.615289308 5.945153313 5.285425303
12/1/1980 5.521152604 5.851016634 5.191288575
1/1/1981 5.40299127 5.732855311 5.073127229
2/1/1981 5.255754715 5.585618756 4.925890673
3/1/1981 5.118292353 5.448156352 4.788428353
4/1/1981 4.953187835 5.283051832 4.623323839
5/1/1981 4.833957251 5.163821245 4.504093256
6/1/1981 4.692490787 5.022354816 4.362626757
7/1/1981 4.627658301 4.957522264 4.297794339
8/1/1981 4.516715725 4.846579673 4.186851778
9/1/1981 4.437788128 4.767652173 4.107924083
10/1/1981 4.334613336 4.664477339 4.004749334
11/1/1981 4.208184875 4.538048873 3.878320877
12/1/1981 4.103385197 4.433249143 3.773521251
1/1/1982 3.939647159 4.269511083 3.609783235
2/1/1982 3.849026975 4.178891032 3.519162918
3/1/1982 3.705076586 4.034940585 3.375212587
4/1/1982 3.619880494 3.949744434 3.290016555
5/1/1982 3.465025045 3.794889074 3.135161016
6/1/1982 3.393264937 3.723128893 3.063400981
7/1/1982 3.228435225 3.558299184 2.898571267
8/1/1982 3.156980348 3.486844376 2.827116321
9/1/1982 2.999046551 3.328910537 2.669182564
10/1/1982 2.922085865 3.251949924 2.592221805
11/1/1982 2.780075602 3.109939683 2.450211521
12/1/1982 2.686850422 3.01671444 2.356986403
1/1/1983 2.592839983 2.922704004 2.262975962
2/1/1983 2.514587802 2.844451805 2.184723799
3/1/1983 2.449808813 2.779672833 2.119944793
4/1/1983 2.388043895 2.717907914 2.058179875
5/1/1983 2.330049125 2.65991309 2.000185159
6/1/1983 2.285249181 2.615113121 1.955385241
7/1/1983 2.299840544 2.629704594 1.969976494
8/1/1983 2.304894742 2.634758857 1.975030627
9/1/1983 2.366882031 2.696746161 2.0370179
10/1/1983 2.41073516 2.740599068 2.080871251
11/1/1983 2.488866107 2.818730078 2.159002135
12/1/1983 2.547096765 2.876960796 2.217232733
1/1/1984 2.613373577 2.943237533 2.283509621
2/1/1984 2.664610017 2.99447397 2.334746063
3/1/1984 2.708709394 3.038573467 2.37884532
4/1/1984 2.744862001 3.074726025 2.414997977
5/1/1984 2.782726871 3.112590842 2.452862901
6/1/1984 2.798826719 3.128690746 2.468962692
7/1/1984 2.788118055 3.117982156 2.458253954
8/1/1984 2.790693526 3.120557606 2.460829447
9/1/1984 2.760641973 3.090505959 2.430777988
10/1/1984 2.764569196 3.094433165 2.434705227
11/1/1984 2.734981247 3.064845173 2.40511732
12/1/1984 2.737066491 3.06693043 2.407202553
1/1/1985 2.725977967 3.055841976 2.396113958
2/1/1985 2.719758857 3.049622832 2.389894882
3/1/1985 2.696651678 3.026515755 2.366787601
4/1/1985 2.659082094 2.988946095 2.329218094
5/1/1985 2.611433041 2.941297055 2.281569026
6/1/1985 2.575410846 2.905274727 2.245546964
7/1/1985 2.531461701 2.861325581 2.201597821
8/1/1985 2.484007996 2.813872053 2.154143938
9/1/1985 2.421088761 2.750952643 2.091224879
10/1/1985 2.38209306 2.711956903 2.052229218
11/1/1985 2.318507241 2.648371201 1.988643282
12/1/1985 2.28654094 2.616404989 1.956676891
1/1/1986 2.210115997 2.539979823 1.880252172
2/1/1986 2.17297741 2.50284137 1.843113449
3/1/1986 2.117261583 2.447125373 1.787397792
4/1/1986 2.075495541 2.405359501 1.74563158
5/1/1986 2.031487612 2.361351419 1.701623805
6/1/1986 1.973164265 2.303028337 1.643300192
7/1/1986 1.933046644 2.262910564 1.603182724
8/1/1986 1.884221263 2.214085358 1.554357168
9/1/1986 1.834874276 2.164738349 1.505010203
10/1/1986 1.790621266 2.120485247 1.460757285
11/1/1986 1.738441455 2.068305396 1.408577513
12/1/1986 1.68289522 2.012759291 1.353031148
1/1/1987 1.621284581 1.951148518 1.291420645
2/1/1987 1.56130769 1.891171523 1.231443858
3/1/1987 1.492915092 1.822779016 1.163051168
4/1/1987 1.450101706 1.77996555 1.120237863
5/1/1987 1.36821345 1.698077503 1.038349397
6/1/1987 1.340228687 1.670092489 1.010364885
7/1/1987 1.27017087 1.600034878 0.940306861
8/1/1987 1.261071248 1.590935357 0.931207138
9/1/1987 1.2094436 1.539307623 0.879579577
10/1/1987 1.176173784 1.506037652 0.846309916
11/1/1987 1.139899518 1.469763586 0.810035451
12/1/1987 1.12058979 1.450453832 0.790725749
1/1/1988 1.103814253 1.433678296 0.773950209
2/1/1988 1.10066496 1.430529068 0.770800852
3/1/1988 1.120028133 1.449892188 0.790164078
4/1/1988 1.108894825 1.438759001 0.77903065
5/1/1988 1.144076878 1.473940804 0.814212953
6/1/1988 1.159521029 1.489385081 0.829656976
7/1/1988 1.212569252 1.542433162 0.882705341
8/1/1988 1.260007069 1.589870976 0.930143162
9/1/1988 1.340766431 1.670630453 1.010902408
10/1/1988 1.442426344 1.772290392 1.112562296
11/1/1988 1.537480076 1.867343952 1.2076162
12/1/1988 1.657196994 1.987061027 1.32733296
1/1/1989 1.768127404 2.0979913 1.438263508
2/1/1989 1.920283599 2.250147551 1.590419647
3/1/1989 2.027053644 2.35691771 1.697189577
4/1/1989 2.216958845 2.546822714 1.887094976
5/1/1989 2.331154576 2.6610185 2.001290653
6/1/1989 2.471272433 2.801136498 2.141408369
7/1/1989 2.550886227 2.880750257 2.221022198
8/1/1989 2.626926246 2.956790316 2.297062177
9/1/1989 2.67829459 3.008158634 2.348430546
10/1/1989 2.70488657 3.034750531 2.375022609
11/1/1989 2.722026417 3.051890266 2.392162569
12/1/1989 2.722906482 3.052770384 2.393042579
1/1/1990 2.727424244 3.057288281 2.397560208
2/1/1990 2.691167863 3.021031739 2.361303988
3/1/1990 2.665757508 2.995621504 2.335893511
4/1/1990 2.582277391 2.912141658 2.252413124
5/1/1990 2.539962653 2.86982676 2.210098547
6/1/1990 2.485027761 2.81489193 2.155163592
7/1/1990 2.476306939 2.806170898 2.146442979
8/1/1990 2.476378275 2.806242287 2.146514262
9/1/1990 2.497332276 2.827196288 2.167468264
10/1/1990 2.507024238 2.836888368 2.177160109
11/1/1990 2.581639808 2.911503816 2.251775799
12/1/1990 2.599650615 2.929514589 2.26978664
1/1/1991 2.727740838 3.057604813 2.397876864
2/1/1991 2.752498158 3.082362333 2.422633983
3/1/1991 2.825107369 3.154971394 2.495243344
4/1/1991 2.828495582 3.158359558 2.498631607
5/1/1991 2.86028448 3.190148599 2.530420362
6/1/1991 2.855916118 3.185779833 2.526052403
7/1/1991 2.85464703 3.184510963 2.524783097
8/1/1991 2.834244444 3.164108315 2.504380572
9/1/1991 2.811988742 3.141852649 2.482124834
10/1/1991 2.773155158 3.103019065 2.44329125
11/1/1991 2.721655861 3.051519812 2.39179191
12/1/1991 2.678536282 3.008400236 2.348672327
1/1/1992 2.557072775 2.886936693 2.227208857
2/1/1992 2.514043644 2.843907692 2.184179595
3/1/1992 2.445694042 2.775558157 2.115829926
4/1/1992 2.419948971 2.749812948 2.090084993
5/1/1992 2.365949154 2.695813153 2.036085154
6/1/1992 2.335048348 2.664912453 2.005184242
7/1/1992 2.283982954 2.613846796 1.954119111
8/1/1992 2.238246735 2.568110525 1.908382945
9/1/1992 2.198152915 2.528016956 1.868288874
10/1/1992 2.151606032 2.481470261 1.821741804
11/1/1992 2.105374768 2.435239134 1.775510402
12/1/1992 2.060030444 2.389894658 1.730166231
1/1/1993 1.999116031 2.328980139 1.669251923
2/1/1993 1.95006977 2.279933868 1.620205672
3/1/1993 1.871807744 2.201671863 1.541943625
4/1/1993 1.816027195 2.145890992 1.486163398
5/1/1993 1.738752344 2.068616214 1.408888475
6/1/1993 1.687101999 2.016965826 1.357238172
7/1/1993 1.617821034 1.947684971 1.287957096
8/1/1993 1.576101512 1.905965455 1.24623757
9/1/1993 1.486265471 1.816129596 1.156401346
10/1/1993 1.431008315 1.760872345 1.101144285
11/1/1993 1.330274041 1.660137947 1.000410135
12/1/1993 1.239874566 1.569738679 0.910010453
1/1/1994 1.139977968 1.469841963 0.810113973
2/1/1994 1.015107478 1.344971584 0.685243372
3/1/1994 0.934381365 1.264245582 0.604517147
4/1/1994 0.845333785 1.175198009 0.51546956
5/1/1994 0.781377696 1.11124159 0.451513802
6/1/1994 0.731531235 1.061395218 0.401667252
7/1/1994 0.690090898 1.019954733 0.360227063
8/1/1994 0.65093099 0.980794854 0.321067126
9/1/1994 0.644482101 0.974346154 0.314618048
10/1/1994 0.615572308 0.945436339 0.285708276
11/1/1994 0.623525492 0.953389537 0.293661447
12/1/1994 0.641074593 0.970938604 0.311210582
1/1/1995 0.661392475 0.991256421 0.331528529
2/1/1995 0.712081121 1.041944627 0.382217615
3/1/1995 0.716479566 1.046343661 0.38661547
4/1/1995 0.721067449 1.050931287 0.39120361
5/1/1995 0.720170619 1.050034714 0.390306523
6/1/1995 0.696562554 1.026426671 0.366698438
7/1/1995 0.684289895 1.014154031 0.354425758
8/1/1995 0.649867097 0.979731371 0.320002822
9/1/1995 0.634061186 0.96392554 0.304196832
10/1/1995 0.592609821 0.922474016 0.262745625
11/1/1995 0.570262671 0.900126851 0.240398492
12/1/1995 0.519673637 0.849537906 0.189809368
1/1/1996 0.501988512 0.831852534 0.17212449
2/1/1996 0.467627758 0.797492021 0.137763496
3/1/1996 0.47286796 0.802731634 0.143004286
4/1/1996 0.463239687 0.793103305 0.133376068
5/1/1996 0.484711385 0.814575015 0.154847755
6/1/1996 0.491082148 0.820946194 0.161218103
7/1/1996 0.527228201 0.857092175 0.197364226
8/1/1996 0.55226618 0.882130282 0.222402078
9/1/1996 0.596638239 0.926502259 0.266774219
10/1/1996 0.658467321 0.988331278 0.328603364
11/1/1996 0.727367218 1.05723124 0.397503197
12/1/1996 0.818174452 1.148038443 0.488310461
1/1/1997 0.906183664 1.236047599 0.576319729
2/1/1997 1.019869285 1.349733149 0.690005421
3/1/1997 1.107393775 1.437257663 0.777529886
4/1/1997 1.273931368 1.603795397 0.944067339
5/1/1997 1.352504755 1.682368968 1.022640543
6/1/1997 1.462114428 1.791978274 1.132250581
7/1/1997 1.520613988 1.850477792 1.190750184
8/1/1997 1.581137904 1.911001829 1.251273978
9/1/1997 1.622186367 1.952050478 1.292322256
10/1/1997 1.644638766 1.974502738 1.314774794
11/1/1997 1.610039065 1.939902989 1.280175141
12/1/1997 1.583937082 1.91380081 1.254073355
1/1/1998 1.50690903 1.836772925 1.177045135
2/1/1998 1.427213105 1.757077541 1.09734867
3/1/1998 1.318797029 1.648661357 0.988932702
4/1/1998 1.1572971 1.487161301 0.827432899
5/1/1998 1.032283724 1.362148032 0.702419415
6/1/1998 0.904701206 1.234565521 0.574836891
7/1/1998 0.767142235 1.097006164 0.437278307
8/1/1998 0.678362738 1.008226682 0.348498794
9/1/1998 0.52836366 0.858227357 0.198499963
10/1/1998 0.44974721 0.779610997 0.119883423
11/1/1998 0.333664386 0.663528404 0.003800368
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1/1/1999 0.158203848 0.488067771 -0.171660075
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4/1/1999 9.24E-05 0.329956419 -0.329771664
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1/1/2009 -0.101230658 0.228633633 -0.431094949
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5/1/2009 -0.350319702 -0.020456067 -0.680183337
6/1/2009 -0.433523457 -0.103659496 -0.763387419
7/1/2009 -0.531907705 -0.202043745 -0.861771665
8/1/2009 -0.623001855 -0.293137373 -0.952866336
9/1/2009 -0.713183883 -0.383319918 -1.043047848
10/1/2009 -0.784436259 -0.454572533 -1.114299985
11/1/2009 -0.874358587 -0.544494285 -1.204222889
12/1/2009 -0.933660818 -0.603796692 -1.263524945
1/1/2010 -0.982056625 -0.652192491 -1.311920759
2/1/2010 -1.029861998 -0.699998419 -1.359725577
3/1/2010 -1.092719105 -0.762855161 -1.422583049
4/1/2010 -1.148150378 -0.818286752 -1.478014004
5/1/2010 -1.1981434 -0.868279492 -1.528007308
6/1/2010 -1.223965816 -0.894102183 -1.553829449
7/1/2010 -1.248383096 -0.918519862 -1.578246331
8/1/2010 -1.247110134 -0.917247105 -1.576973162
9/1/2010 -1.253942283 -0.924078619 -1.583805947
10/1/2010 -1.219338897 -0.889475346 -1.549202448
11/1/2010 -1.203227084 -0.873363781 -1.533090387
12/1/2010 -1.175876133 -0.846012445 -1.505739822
1/1/2011 -1.132388104 -0.802524438 -1.46225177
2/1/2011 -1.101814445 -0.771950196 -1.431678693
3/1/2011 -1.028433821 -0.698569795 -1.358297847
4/1/2011 -0.988205984 -0.658341574 -1.318070393
5/1/2011 -0.910924938 -0.581060576 -1.2407893
6/1/2011 -0.887355088 -0.557491149 -1.217219027
7/1/2011 -0.82480123 -0.494937665 -1.154664796
8/1/2011 -0.783756989 -0.453893164 -1.113620814
9/1/2011 -0.732406345 -0.402542454 -1.062270236
10/1/2011 -0.721404265 -0.391540777 -1.051267754
11/1/2011 -0.684318923 -0.354455498 -1.014182349
12/1/2011 -0.661763647 -0.331900095 -0.991627199
1/1/2012 -0.618529631 -0.288665949 -0.948393313
2/1/2012 -0.579097533 -0.249234027 -0.90896104
3/1/2012 -0.556150661 -0.226286847 -0.886014476
4/1/2012 -0.514610757 -0.184746509 -0.844475006
5/1/2012 -0.519373975 -0.189509978 -0.849237972
6/1/2012 -0.502597857 -0.172733831 -0.832461882
7/1/2012 -0.505091658 -0.175227852 -0.834955464
8/1/2012 -0.520156718 -0.190292541 -0.850020894
9/1/2012 -0.507139951 -0.177276312 -0.83700359
10/1/2012 -0.507078207 -0.177214363 -0.836942051
11/1/2012 -0.472961027 -0.143097368 -0.802824686
12/1/2012 -0.462745086 -0.132881032 -0.79260914
1/1/2013 -0.418122368 -0.088258422 -0.747986313
2/1/2013 -0.389783971 -0.059919558 -0.719648383
3/1/2013 -0.304292972 0.025571376 -0.63415732
4/1/2013 -0.255559352 0.074304923 -0.585423627
5/1/2013 -0.138778611 0.191085204 -0.468642425
6/1/2013 -0.051951359 0.277912318 -0.381815035
7/1/2013 0.084325354 0.414189102 -0.245538393
8/1/2013 0.196516353 0.526380537 -0.133347831
9/1/2013 0.330205036 0.66006858 3.41E-04
10/1/2013 0.466108572 0.795971893 0.13624525
11/1/2013 0.59770971 0.927572741 0.267846679
12/1/2013 0.75461852 1.084482365 0.424754674
1/1/2014 0.887239405 1.217102994 0.557375815
2/1/2014 1.065947982 1.3958117 0.736084265
3/1/2014 1.178722408 1.508586219 0.848858598
4/1/2014 1.396506023 1.726370296 1.06664175
5/1/2014 1.490560548 1.820424565 1.160696531
6/1/2014 1.633558091 1.963422195 1.303693987
7/1/2014 1.684982701 2.014846839 1.355118563
8/1/2014 1.768373822 2.098237858 1.438509785
9/1/2014 1.77804899 2.107913472 1.448184508
10/1/2014 1.806994891 2.136859132 1.477130649
11/1/2014 1.788121506 2.117985329 1.458257684
12/1/2014 1.76497699 2.094840996 1.435112984
1/1/2015 1.7266696 2.056534325 1.396804875
2/1/2015 1.651407445 1.981271761 1.321543129
3/1/2015 1.5871004 1.916965383 1.257235418
4/1/2015 1.441670629 1.771534478 1.11180678
5/1/2015 1.356744319 1.686607977 1.02688066
6/1/2015 1.245049598 1.574913516 0.91518568
7/1/2015 1.172392493 1.502257061 0.842527926
8/1/2015 1.076753857 1.406618178 0.746889536
9/1/2015 1.015740837 1.345605696 0.685875978
10/1/2015 0.918484545 1.248349236 0.588619853
11/1/2015 0.852924111 1.182788456 0.523059767
12/1/2015 0.773292835 1.103157206 0.443428464
1/1/2016 0.701197412 1.031061036 0.371333788
2/1/2016 0.635334928 0.965197819 0.305472038
3/1/2016 0.57209357 0.901956876 0.242230263
4/1/2016 0.512644344 0.842507611 0.182781077
5/1/2016 0.456461329 0.786324518 0.126598139
6/1/2016 0.411614083 0.741478585 0.08174958
7/1/2016 0.3448606 0.674724622 0.014996578
8/1/2016 0.299141045 0.629004835 -0.030722745
9/1/2016 0.224082727 0.553946806 -0.105781352
10/1/2016 0.197841804 0.527705373 -0.132021765
11/1/2016 0.136308473 0.466172021 -0.193555075
12/1/2016 0.118365606 0.448230152 -0.211498941
1/1/2017 0.075551132 0.405415606 -0.254313342
2/1/2017 0.057127424 0.386991826 -0.272736977
3/1/2017 -0.007134003 0.322730589 -0.336998595
4/1/2017 -0.010545339 0.319319313 -0.340409991
5/1/2017 -0.046355143 0.283508933 -0.376219219
6/1/2017 -0.037978551 0.291886099 -0.3678432
7/1/2017 -0.047636162 0.282227791 -0.377500115
8/1/2017 -0.024992249 0.304871846 -0.354856344
9/1/2017 -0.014199484 0.315663698 -0.344062667
10/1/2017 0.014028706 0.343892614 -0.315835202
11/1/2017 0.048305944 0.378171189 -0.281559301
12/1/2017 0.071670746 0.401535628 -0.258194136
1/1/2018 0.107344748 0.437207673 -0.222518177
2/1/2018 0.131114025 0.460976299 -0.198748248
3/1/2018 0.174479522 0.504342708 -0.155383664
4/1/2018 0.175598302 0.505462205 -0.1542656
5/1/2018 0.203873358 0.533736373 -0.125989657
6/1/2018 0.213390701 0.543254161 -0.116472758
7/1/2018 0.248368648 0.578232228 -0.081494931
8/1/2018 0.263598875 0.593463765 -0.066266014
9/1/2018 0.268333006 0.5981958 -0.061529789
10/1/2018 0.29757841 0.62744131 -0.032284491
11/1/2018 0.298169601 0.628034052 -0.03169485
12/1/2018 0.339591933 0.669456891 0.009726975
1/1/2019 0.34229194 0.672155591 0.012428289
2/1/2019 0.382068193 0.711933019 0.052203367
3/1/2019 0.387458838 0.717324195 0.057593482
4/1/2019 0.441131055 0.770995417 0.111266693
5/1/2019 0.453950865 0.783815353 0.124086377
6/1/2019 0.493576537 0.823439537 0.163713538
7/1/2019 0.502032653 0.831895731 0.172169575
8/1/2019 0.528665296 0.85852962 0.198800971
9/1/2019 0.527836182 0.857700548 0.197971815
10/1/2019 0.526471368 0.856335107 0.196607628
11/1/2019 0.522001205 0.851865204 0.192137207
12/1/2019 0.479943265 0.809807906 0.150078625
1/1/2020 0.451652813 0.781515518 0.121790107
2/1/2020 0.358562479 0.688426473 0.028698484
3/1/2020 0.2968059 0.626669975 -0.033058175
4/1/2020 0.143151068 0.47301624 -0.186714103
5/1/2020 0.06517488 0.395038353 -0.264688594
6/1/2020 -0.062885733 0.266978555 -0.392750022
7/1/2020 -0.132259881 0.197604882 -0.462124644
8/1/2020 -0.276343051 0.053522007 -0.606208108
9/1/2020 -0.319119676 0.010745413 -0.648984766
10/1/2020 -0.447420734 -0.117556921 -0.777284548
11/1/2020 -0.480733349 -0.150871236 -0.810595463
12/1/2020 -0.594530007 -0.264663947 -0.924396067
1/1/2021 -0.604248321 -0.274381837 -0.934114805
2/1/2021 -0.711072007 -0.381205816 -1.040938198
3/1/2021 -0.731651021 -0.401783742 -1.0615183
4/1/2021 -0.795070041 -0.465201629 -1.124938453
5/1/2021 -0.793570254 -0.463703692 -1.123436816
6/1/2021 -0.816286983 -0.486422991 -1.146150975
7/1/2021 -0.809357087 -0.479493785 -1.139220389
8/1/2021 -0.802068972 -0.472206443 -1.1319315
9/1/2021 -0.798218839 -0.468356957 -1.128080722
10/1/2021 -0.754567787 -0.4247052 -1.084430374
11/1/2021 -0.717460886 -0.387595054 -1.047326719
12/1/2021 -0.59726877 -0.26740311 -0.92713443
1/1/2022 -0.512538781 -0.182669589 -0.842407974
2/1/2022 -0.300656537 0.029212754 -0.630525827
3/1/2022 -0.132456873 0.197411757 -0.462325504
4/1/2022 0.155301567 0.485169943 -0.174566808
5/1/2022 0.361320291 0.691193265 0.031447318
6/1/2022 0.620206981 0.95008713 0.290326831
7/1/2022 0.84733256 1.177215838 0.517449283
8/1/2022 1.103230426 1.433123426 0.773337426
9/1/2022 1.321468194 1.651374416 0.991561971
10/1/2022 1.550968234 1.880889369 1.2210471
11/1/2022 1.722177306 2.052120091 1.392234522
12/1/2022 1.909109797 2.239077025 1.579142569
1/1/2023 2.045260967 2.375254913 1.71526702
2/1/2023 2.194942422 2.524971678 1.864913165
3/1/2023 2.299552436 2.629630466 1.969474405
4/1/2023 2.4022955 2.732428264 2.072162737
5/1/2023 2.460525629 2.790722583 2.130328675
6/1/2023 2.49711253 2.82737908 2.166845979
7/1/2023 2.51450089 2.844854056 2.184147724
8/1/2023 2.525995272 2.85642922 2.195561324
9/1/2023 2.504584693 2.835116951 2.174052435
10/1/2023 2.494364602 2.824993499 2.163735706
11/1/2023 2.464528624 2.795264969 2.133792279
12/1/2023 2.416171625 2.74700256 2.08534069
1/1/2024 2.355712119 2.686633202 2.024791037
2/1/2024 2.27127267 2.602279068 1.940266271
3/1/2024 2.202920327 2.534007692 1.871832962
4/1/2024 2.107272895 2.438447383 1.776098407
5/1/2024 2.041095274 2.372345027 1.709845522
6/1/2024 1.981041437 2.312428291 1.649654583
7/1/2024 1.917859792 2.249407749 1.586311835
8/1/2024 1.871198794 2.203111243 1.539286345
9/1/2024 1.835088172 2.167477129 1.502699215
10/1/2024 1.801110055 2.134458384 1.467761725
11/1/2024 1.773387102 2.108085352 1.438688852
12/1/2024 1.752479598 2.089549557 1.415409639
1/1/2025 1.738737322 2.079208858 1.398265786
2/1/2025 1.758222972 2.104109561 1.412336384
3/1/2025 1.757416909 2.111363413 1.403470405
4/1/2025 1.78229446 2.148119154 1.416469765
5/1/2025 1.783431943 2.167923155 1.39894073
6/1/2025 1.795673533 2.205833466 1.3855136
7/1/2025 1.7981755 2.250499182 1.345851819

Panel (b) Since 2018
Percent

Date Global component Upper bound of 90% confidence interval Lower bound of 90% confidence interval
1/1/2018 0.107344748 0.437207673 -0.222518177
2/1/2018 0.131114025 0.460976299 -0.198748248
3/1/2018 0.174479522 0.504342708 -0.155383664
4/1/2018 0.175598302 0.505462205 -0.1542656
5/1/2018 0.203873358 0.533736373 -0.125989657
6/1/2018 0.213390701 0.543254161 -0.116472758
7/1/2018 0.248368648 0.578232228 -0.081494931
8/1/2018 0.263598875 0.593463765 -0.066266014
9/1/2018 0.268333006 0.5981958 -0.061529789
10/1/2018 0.29757841 0.62744131 -0.032284491
11/1/2018 0.298169601 0.628034052 -0.03169485
12/1/2018 0.339591933 0.669456891 0.009726975
1/1/2019 0.34229194 0.672155591 0.012428289
2/1/2019 0.382068193 0.711933019 0.052203367
3/1/2019 0.387458838 0.717324195 0.057593482
4/1/2019 0.441131055 0.770995417 0.111266693
5/1/2019 0.453950865 0.783815353 0.124086377
6/1/2019 0.493576537 0.823439537 0.163713538
7/1/2019 0.502032653 0.831895731 0.172169575
8/1/2019 0.528665296 0.85852962 0.198800971
9/1/2019 0.527836182 0.857700548 0.197971815
10/1/2019 0.526471368 0.856335107 0.196607628
11/1/2019 0.522001205 0.851865204 0.192137207
12/1/2019 0.479943265 0.809807906 0.150078625
1/1/2020 0.451652813 0.781515518 0.121790107
2/1/2020 0.358562479 0.688426473 0.028698484
3/1/2020 0.2968059 0.626669975 -0.033058175
4/1/2020 0.143151068 0.47301624 -0.186714103
5/1/2020 0.06517488 0.395038353 -0.264688594
6/1/2020 -0.062885733 0.266978555 -0.392750022
7/1/2020 -0.132259881 0.197604882 -0.462124644
8/1/2020 -0.276343051 0.053522007 -0.606208108
9/1/2020 -0.319119676 0.010745413 -0.648984766
10/1/2020 -0.447420734 -0.117556921 -0.777284548
11/1/2020 -0.480733349 -0.150871236 -0.810595463
12/1/2020 -0.594530007 -0.264663947 -0.924396067
1/1/2021 -0.604248321 -0.274381837 -0.934114805
2/1/2021 -0.711072007 -0.381205816 -1.040938198
3/1/2021 -0.731651021 -0.401783742 -1.0615183
4/1/2021 -0.795070041 -0.465201629 -1.124938453
5/1/2021 -0.793570254 -0.463703692 -1.123436816
6/1/2021 -0.816286983 -0.486422991 -1.146150975
7/1/2021 -0.809357087 -0.479493785 -1.139220389
8/1/2021 -0.802068972 -0.472206443 -1.1319315
9/1/2021 -0.798218839 -0.468356957 -1.128080722
10/1/2021 -0.754567787 -0.4247052 -1.084430374
11/1/2021 -0.717460886 -0.387595054 -1.047326719
12/1/2021 -0.59726877 -0.26740311 -0.92713443
1/1/2022 -0.512538781 -0.182669589 -0.842407974
2/1/2022 -0.300656537 0.029212754 -0.630525827
3/1/2022 -0.132456873 0.197411757 -0.462325504
4/1/2022 0.155301567 0.485169943 -0.174566808
5/1/2022 0.361320291 0.691193265 0.031447318
6/1/2022 0.620206981 0.95008713 0.290326831
7/1/2022 0.84733256 1.177215838 0.517449283
8/1/2022 1.103230426 1.433123426 0.773337426
9/1/2022 1.321468194 1.651374416 0.991561971
10/1/2022 1.550968234 1.880889369 1.2210471
11/1/2022 1.722177306 2.052120091 1.392234522
12/1/2022 1.909109797 2.239077025 1.579142569
1/1/2023 2.045260967 2.375254913 1.71526702
2/1/2023 2.194942422 2.524971678 1.864913165
3/1/2023 2.299552436 2.629630466 1.969474405
4/1/2023 2.4022955 2.732428264 2.072162737
5/1/2023 2.460525629 2.790722583 2.130328675
6/1/2023 2.49711253 2.82737908 2.166845979
7/1/2023 2.51450089 2.844854056 2.184147724
8/1/2023 2.525995272 2.85642922 2.195561324
9/1/2023 2.504584693 2.835116951 2.174052435
10/1/2023 2.494364602 2.824993499 2.163735706
11/1/2023 2.464528624 2.795264969 2.133792279
12/1/2023 2.416171625 2.74700256 2.08534069
1/1/2024 2.355712119 2.686633202 2.024791037
2/1/2024 2.27127267 2.602279068 1.940266271
3/1/2024 2.202920327 2.534007692 1.871832962
4/1/2024 2.107272895 2.438447383 1.776098407
5/1/2024 2.041095274 2.372345027 1.709845522
6/1/2024 1.981041437 2.312428291 1.649654583
7/1/2024 1.917859792 2.249407749 1.586311835
8/1/2024 1.871198794 2.203111243 1.539286345
9/1/2024 1.835088172 2.167477129 1.502699215
10/1/2024 1.801110055 2.134458384 1.467761725
11/1/2024 1.773387102 2.108085352 1.438688852
12/1/2024 1.752479598 2.089549557 1.415409639
1/1/2025 1.738737322 2.079208858 1.398265786
2/1/2025 1.758222972 2.104109561 1.412336384
3/1/2025 1.757416909 2.111363413 1.403470405
4/1/2025 1.78229446 2.148119154 1.416469765
5/1/2025 1.783431943 2.167923155 1.39894073
6/1/2025 1.795673533 2.205833466 1.3855136
7/1/2025 1.7981755 2.250499182 1.345851819

Figure 2a plots the monthly level of our estimated global component over time from January 1975 to July 2025, along with 90 percent confidence intervals. The Y axis ranges from -3 percent to 20 percent. A thick solid black line designates the point estimate of the global component. Two thinner black lines demarcate the lower and upper bounds of the 90 percent confidence interval for the global component. The area between the lower and upper bounds is shaded in grey.

Note: Panel (A) plots the estimated global component of core inflation over the full sample. Panel (B) plots this component since 2018. The blue shading denotes 90% confidence intervals.

Source: Authors' calculations.

Return to text

Figure 3: Growth Rates of Global and Regional Components

Panel (a) Growth rate of global component
Percent

Date Growth rate of global component Lower bound 90% confidence interval Upper bound 90% confidence interval
1/1/2018 0.02241832 -0.052165744 0.097002385
2/1/2018 0.022552286 -0.052031833 0.097136406
3/1/2018 0.020558874 -0.054025236 0.095142983
4/1/2018 0.020589046 -0.053995053 0.095173146
5/1/2018 0.019841102 -0.054743031 0.094425236
6/1/2018 0.020172134 -0.054412009 0.094756278
7/1/2018 0.018997261 -0.055586878 0.0935814
8/1/2018 0.018228359 -0.056355765 0.092812483
9/1/2018 0.018867401 -0.055716761 0.093451562
10/1/2018 0.018452368 -0.056131867 0.093036603
11/1/2018 0.019893875 -0.054690287 0.094478037
12/1/2018 0.019134512 -0.055449614 0.093718637
1/1/2019 0.02008943 -0.054494747 0.094673607
2/1/2019 0.019034771 -0.055549332 0.093618874
3/1/2019 0.019402871 -0.055181225 0.093986968
4/1/2019 0.016258347 -0.058325725 0.090842419
5/1/2019 0.013490109 -0.061093995 0.088074212
6/1/2019 0.008036364 -0.066547731 0.082620459
7/1/2019 0.002562941 -0.072021225 0.077147108
8/1/2019 -0.005383838 -0.079967954 0.069200277
9/1/2019 -0.013810878 -0.088394944 0.060773189
10/1/2019 -0.023521323 -0.098105496 0.051062849
11/1/2019 -0.035217886 -0.109801957 0.039366185
12/1/2019 -0.046238792 -0.120822937 0.028345352
1/1/2020 -0.059156384 -0.133740534 0.015427766
2/1/2020 -0.068624219 -0.14320839 0.005959952
3/1/2020 -0.078871693 -0.153455871 -0.004287515
4/1/2020 -0.081483482 -0.156067577 -0.006899387
5/1/2020 -0.084539009 -0.159123219 -0.009954798
6/1/2020 -0.083184183 -0.157768319 -0.008600046
7/1/2020 -0.083332397 -0.15791655 -0.008748244
8/1/2020 -0.077276941 -0.151861062 -0.00269282
9/1/2020 -0.074856391 -0.149440541 -0.000272
10/1/2020 -0.067008199 -0.141592378 0.007575981
11/1/2020 -0.062695734 -0.137280007 0.011888538
12/1/2020 -0.053171551 -0.127755755 0.021412654
1/1/2021 -0.048173786 -0.122757857 0.026410284
2/1/2021 -0.037192381 -0.111776486 0.037391725
3/1/2021 -0.027962537 -0.102546516 0.046621441
4/1/2021 -0.0150933 -0.089677174 0.059490574
5/1/2021 -0.003952061 -0.078535984 0.070631863
6/1/2021 0.00916095 -0.065423012 0.083744913
7/1/2021 0.022513051 -0.052071124 0.097097225
8/1/2021 0.037448525 -0.037135678 0.112032727
9/1/2021 0.055880713 -0.018703745 0.13046517
10/1/2021 0.075612837 0.001028257 0.150197418
11/1/2021 0.099373175 0.024788578 0.173957772
12/1/2021 0.121076909 0.046492004 0.195661815
1/1/2022 0.146621584 0.07203671 0.221206458
2/1/2022 0.165596659 0.091011365 0.240181953
3/1/2022 0.184444096 0.109858464 0.259029728
4/1/2022 0.192810335 0.118224091 0.26739658
5/1/2022 0.199997263 0.125410456 0.274584071
6/1/2022 0.201289143 0.126701855 0.275876432
7/1/2022 0.200096107 0.125508002 0.274684212
8/1/2022 0.193340199 0.118751239 0.26792916
9/1/2022 0.184204748 0.109615085 0.258794412
10/1/2022 0.170558886 0.095968125 0.245149648
11/1/2022 0.157012688 0.082421123 0.231604253
12/1/2022 0.140527361 0.065934688 0.215120035
1/1/2023 0.124616143 0.050022226 0.199210059
2/1/2023 0.106237686 0.031642646 0.180832727
3/1/2023 0.088118819 0.013522639 0.162714999
4/1/2023 0.068568702 -0.006028184 0.143165588
5/1/2023 0.050136022 -0.024461942 0.124733987
6/1/2023 0.033150289 -0.041448346 0.107748924
7/1/2023 0.017824467 -0.056775135 0.09242407
8/1/2023 0.003170031 -0.071430754 0.077770815
9/1/2023 -0.00894638 -0.083549388 0.065656627
10/1/2023 -0.020961362 -0.095567381 0.053644656
11/1/2023 -0.032079578 -0.10669169 0.042532533
12/1/2023 -0.041569848 -0.11619134 0.033051644
1/1/2024 -0.049150941 -0.123789339 0.025487457
2/1/2024 -0.053149315 -0.127812923 0.021514294
3/1/2024 -0.055627574 -0.130331566 0.019076419
4/1/2024 -0.054022941 -0.12878627 0.020740388
5/1/2024 -0.051211052 -0.126065049 0.023642945
6/1/2024 -0.047525927 -0.122511037 0.027459183
7/1/2024 -0.042275472 -0.117454325 0.032903382
8/1/2024 -0.03661809 -0.11207596 0.038839779
9/1/2024 -0.031051687 -0.106916184 0.044812811
10/1/2024 -0.025208578 -0.101662007 0.051244851
11/1/2024 -0.019124876 -0.096426708 0.058176956
12/1/2024 -0.01288655 -0.091417897 0.065644797
1/1/2025 -0.006564677 -0.086832107 0.073702752
2/1/2025 -0.002916331 -0.085654679 0.079822018
3/1/2025 5.24E-04 -0.085548906 0.086596592
4/1/2025 1.45E-03 -0.089149384 0.092047725
5/1/2025 0.002407496 -0.093825454 0.098640446
6/1/2025 0.002354902 -0.100935391 0.105645196
7/1/2025 0.002287919 -0.108746498 0.113322337

Panel (b) Growth rate of regional components
Percent

Date Growth rate Europe component Lower bound 90% confidence interval of Europe growth rate Upper bound 90% confidence interval of Europe growth rate Growth rate North America component
1/1/2018 -0.016986045 -0.09647258 0.06250049 0.014530288
2/1/2018 -0.018896665 -0.098383339 0.060590009 0.014670616
3/1/2018 -0.020421442 -0.099907977 0.059065093 0.012480618
4/1/2018 -0.020946634 -0.100433178 0.05853991 0.010646135
5/1/2018 -0.021425687 -0.100912174 0.0580608 0.007132345
6/1/2018 -0.021291243 -0.100777826 0.058195339 0.004205978
7/1/2018 -0.020957536 -0.100443906 0.058528834 -0.001237719
8/1/2018 -0.0204213 -0.099907764 0.059065165 -0.005281428
9/1/2018 -0.019337858 -0.098824199 0.060148482 -0.009104387
10/1/2018 -0.01847111 -0.097957665 0.061015445 -0.012011909
11/1/2018 -0.016841723 -0.096327968 0.062644521 -0.014626709
12/1/2018 -0.015687921 -0.095174035 0.063798194 -0.01689245
1/1/2019 -0.01331946 -0.092805817 0.066166896 -0.018288804
2/1/2019 -0.011892361 -0.091378466 0.067593744 -0.018467632
3/1/2019 -0.008598434 -0.088084731 0.070887864 -0.018709551
4/1/2019 -0.006712352 -0.086198572 0.072773867 -0.018830849
5/1/2019 -0.00251048 -0.081996937 0.076975976 -0.019842537
6/1/2019 2.32E-04 -0.079254198 0.079718515 -0.020881297
7/1/2019 0.00518506 -0.074301429 0.08467155 -0.021519232
8/1/2019 0.009174047 -0.070312441 0.088660535 -0.022458359
9/1/2019 0.014934243 -0.064551906 0.094420392 -0.022062016
10/1/2019 0.019931779 -0.059554943 0.0994185 -0.020989719
11/1/2019 0.026109537 -0.053376699 0.105595774 -0.018184406
12/1/2019 0.031890142 -0.047596422 0.111376707 -0.014465066
1/1/2020 0.038251495 -0.041234996 0.117737985 -0.008071269
2/1/2020 0.044682693 -0.034803774 0.12416916 -1.03E-03
3/1/2020 0.051089533 -0.028396975 0.13057604 0.010556177
4/1/2020 0.058335252 -0.021150979 0.137821483 0.024342176
5/1/2020 0.064522045 -0.01496449 0.144008581 0.043304332
6/1/2020 0.072076445 -0.007409933 0.151562823 0.061185398
7/1/2020 0.077412415 -0.002073868 0.156898698 0.082572593
8/1/2020 0.085071985 0.005585588 0.164558382 0.101896826
9/1/2020 0.089728359 0.010242084 0.169214635 0.122172507
10/1/2020 0.096579016 0.017092518 0.176065514 0.139779147
11/1/2020 0.099679939 0.020193634 0.179166244 0.157963698
12/1/2020 0.105346507 0.025860167 0.184832847 0.173276714
1/1/2021 0.106169192 0.026683378 0.185655005 0.189569233
2/1/2021 0.110331538 0.030845334 0.189817742 0.201367968
3/1/2021 0.110766787 0.031280585 0.190252989 0.212680453
4/1/2021 0.113801565 0.034315449 0.19328768 0.21327572
5/1/2021 0.11361761 0.034130719 0.1931045 0.211493782
6/1/2021 0.114704568 0.035217731 0.194191405 0.201809343
7/1/2021 0.113136755 0.033648937 0.192624573 0.190778077
8/1/2021 0.111601567 0.032114107 0.191089027 0.17434264
9/1/2021 0.10797503 0.028486791 0.187463268 0.157772222
10/1/2021 0.10391673 0.024428287 0.183405172 0.136357075
11/1/2021 0.098129925 0.018641227 0.177618622 0.114520391
12/1/2021 0.091466627 0.011976521 0.170956733 0.088121583
1/1/2022 0.084079135 0.004588129 0.16357014 0.059696206
2/1/2022 0.074997718 -0.004495485 0.154490921 0.028757208
3/1/2022 0.065328878 -0.014167112 0.144824868 -0.004380972
4/1/2022 0.054024325 -0.025474784 0.133523433 -0.035966998
5/1/2022 0.042123448 -0.037379961 0.121626856 -0.067856934
6/1/2022 0.029101883 -0.050405707 0.108609474 -0.096961176
7/1/2022 0.015931691 -0.063582111 0.095445493 -0.125489523
8/1/2022 0.001455576 -0.078065405 0.080976557 -0.150269329
9/1/2022 -0.012296304 -0.091824744 0.067232136 -0.174223597
10/1/2022 -0.027531903 -0.107070185 0.052006379 -0.192356778
11/1/2022 -0.040896448 -0.120444605 0.03865171 -0.207799676
12/1/2022 -0.055993574 -0.135552846 0.023565698 -0.217422989
1/1/2023 -0.068609702 -0.148181252 0.010961848 -0.222961032
2/1/2023 -0.083240854 -0.162823581 -0.003658127 -0.222656599
3/1/2023 -0.094903446 -0.174497909 -0.015308984 -0.219154858
4/1/2023 -0.108121167 -0.187724811 -0.028517524 -0.210426098
5/1/2023 -0.117715436 -0.197328824 -0.038102048 -0.200094212
6/1/2023 -0.127921826 -0.207541831 -0.048301822 -0.184419979
7/1/2023 -0.134402529 -0.214028034 -0.054777023 -0.168877158
8/1/2023 -0.1404502 -0.220080006 -0.060820394 -0.150598586
9/1/2023 -0.142612609 -0.222247099 -0.062978118 -0.133623697
10/1/2023 -0.144169273 -0.223811322 -0.064527223 -0.11578009
11/1/2023 -0.142364477 -0.222022193 -0.062706761 -0.101950569
12/1/2023 -0.139842296 -0.21953327 -0.060151321 -0.086559738
1/1/2024 -0.134931631 -0.214681629 -0.055181633 -0.075338265
2/1/2024 -0.129399613 -0.209256678 -0.049542548 -0.061925727
3/1/2024 -0.122441596 -0.202465793 -0.042417398 -0.053406074
4/1/2024 -0.11525191 -0.195549601 -0.034954219 -0.042625426
5/1/2024 -0.107487905 -0.188182743 -0.026793067 -0.036208525
6/1/2024 -0.100542013 -0.181834738 -0.019249289 -0.028120266
7/1/2024 -0.093415591 -0.175525363 -0.011305819 -0.023087148
8/1/2024 -0.087817296 -0.171079779 -0.004554812 -0.01610858
9/1/2024 -0.082048284 -0.166807345 0.002710776 -0.011839321
10/1/2024 -0.077878776 -0.164633912 0.00887636 -0.006310635
11/1/2024 -0.073521736 -0.162738305 0.015694833 -1.80E-03
12/1/2024 -0.070808074 -0.16313419 0.021518042 0.003188237
1/1/2025 -0.067442056 -0.163414907 0.028530795 0.007642356
2/1/2025 -0.065571461 -0.165911655 0.034768734 0.009405402
3/1/2025 -0.062721743 -0.16792024 0.042476755 0.01125455
4/1/2025 -0.061542721 -0.172263046 0.049177605 0.011292198
5/1/2025 -0.05936607 -0.175893482 0.057161343 0.011512307
6/1/2025 -0.057944812 -0.18070293 0.064813306 0.011050164
7/1/2025 -0.056020399 -0.184909962 0.072869165 0.010577461

Note: Panel (A) plots the estimated growth rates of the global component, with the thick line denoting the posterior mean of the growth rate, and the thin line denoting the edges of the 90% confidence intervals. Panel (B) plots the estimated growth rates of the regional components. This solid line and thick dot-dash line show the estimated posterior means of the growth rates of the North America and Europe regional components, respectively. Thin solid and thin dot-dashed lines denote the edges of their respective 90% confidence intervals.

Source: Authors' calculations.

Return to text

Figure 4: Core Inflation Decomposition for Selected Economies

Panel (a) US
Percent

Date Global Regional Country specific Core inflation
1/1/2018 0.107344748 1.772656035 -0.012500784 1.8675
2/1/2018 0.131114025 1.792994088 -0.029608114 1.8945
3/1/2018 0.174479522 1.8285333 0.137687181 2.140700003
4/1/2018 0.175598302 1.838107434 0.148094264 2.1618
5/1/2018 0.203873358 1.863743458 0.196783185 2.2644
6/1/2018 0.213390701 1.865804931 0.210604367 2.289799999
7/1/2018 0.248368648 1.892277893 0.239953458 2.3806
8/1/2018 0.263598875 1.878690272 0.084510853 2.2268
9/1/2018 0.268333006 1.871318706 0.053048288 2.1927
10/1/2018 0.29757841 1.853976075 0.012245516 2.1638
11/1/2018 0.298169601 1.839195192 0.103235206 2.240599999
12/1/2018 0.339591933 1.821233015 0.059375051 2.220199999
1/1/2019 0.34229194 1.796338047 0.058470013 2.1971
2/1/2019 0.382068193 1.76700052 -0.009168712 2.1399
3/1/2019 0.387458838 1.748801841 -0.035860678 2.100400001
4/1/2019 0.441131055 1.728686905 -0.036417959 2.133400001
5/1/2019 0.453950865 1.717402675 -0.117453541 2.0539
6/1/2019 0.493576537 1.697473554 0.002949911 2.194000001
7/1/2019 0.502032653 1.67270009 0.102267256 2.276999999
8/1/2019 0.528665296 1.653481079 0.261653625 2.4438
9/1/2019 0.527836182 1.618949279 0.27301454 2.419800001
10/1/2019 0.526471368 1.590558887 0.268969744 2.385999999
11/1/2019 0.522001205 1.553926203 0.303772591 2.379699999
12/1/2019 0.479943265 1.527409243 0.311247494 2.318600002
1/1/2020 0.451652813 1.489238164 0.385709024 2.326600001
2/1/2020 0.358562479 1.475283311 0.57735421 2.411199999
3/1/2020 0.2968059 1.434333271 0.436260831 2.167400001
4/1/2020 0.143151068 1.42569435 -0.000145 1.568700002
5/1/2020 0.06517488 1.404964276 -0.079939155 1.3902
6/1/2020 -0.062885733 1.45857653 -0.051490799 1.344199999
7/1/2020 -0.132259881 1.490090644 0.345469238 1.7033
8/1/2020 -0.276343051 1.592183965 0.545159084 1.860999998
9/1/2020 -0.319119676 1.687528511 0.496991165 1.865399999
10/1/2020 -0.447420734 1.835402708 0.381718031 1.769700005
11/1/2020 -0.480733349 1.972466005 0.301367341 1.793099996
12/1/2020 -0.594530007 2.158387739 0.217542271 1.781400003
1/1/2021 -0.604248321 2.325970894 -0.130722572 1.591000002
2/1/2021 -0.711072007 2.558549096 -0.40147709 1.446
3/1/2021 -0.731651021 2.767752233 -0.281101214 1.754999998
4/1/2021 -0.795070041 3.078524946 0.650545095 2.934
5/1/2021 -0.793570254 3.316462801 1.175807446 3.698699993
6/1/2021 -0.816286983 3.601389078 1.558897909 4.344000004
7/1/2021 -0.809357087 3.818546677 1.179110412 4.188300003
8/1/2021 -0.802068972 4.060270307 0.716398664 3.974599999
9/1/2021 -0.798218839 4.238743151 0.575275683 4.015799994
10/1/2021 -0.754567787 4.441898066 0.871569719 4.558899998
11/1/2021 -0.717460886 4.584303627 1.071057266 4.937900006
12/1/2021 -0.59726877 4.741007744 1.301461028 5.445200003
1/1/2022 -0.512538781 4.848561162 1.689677627 6.025700007
2/1/2022 -0.300656537 4.931489138 1.814867397 6.445699999
3/1/2022 -0.132456873 4.980284442 1.677972422 6.525799991
4/1/2022 0.155301567 4.962170859 1.172327575 6.289800002
5/1/2022 0.361320291 4.928322773 0.919956938 6.209600003
6/1/2022 0.620206981 4.834808233 0.704684781 6.159699995
7/1/2022 0.84733256 4.73129944 0.581868008 6.160500009
8/1/2022 1.103230426 4.570573666 0.86629591 6.540100003
9/1/2022 1.321468194 4.410398174 1.108833624 6.840699992
10/1/2022 1.550968234 4.181916743 0.796515022 6.5294
11/1/2022 1.722177306 3.962459281 0.535563405 6.220199992
12/1/2022 1.909109797 3.699866654 0.356923538 5.965899989
1/1/2023 2.045260967 3.442688432 0.158550611 5.64650001
2/1/2023 2.194942422 3.164499484 0.194058089 5.553499994
3/1/2023 2.299552436 2.909806044 0.329541525 5.538900004
4/1/2023 2.4022955 2.640802126 0.435302374 5.4784
5/1/2023 2.460525629 2.412744231 0.367130135 5.240399995
6/1/2023 2.49711253 2.162190895 0.074096565 4.73339999
7/1/2023 2.51450089 1.975830762 0.045968333 4.536299986
8/1/2023 2.525995272 1.780122149 -0.004017424 4.302099998
9/1/2023 2.504584693 1.63857814 -0.072462838 4.070699995
10/1/2023 2.494364602 1.495145414 0.020689977 4.010199994
11/1/2023 2.464528624 1.412822933 0.166848438 4.044199995
12/1/2023 2.416171625 1.295267171 0.272161203 3.983599999
1/1/2024 2.355712119 1.24390725 0.411180626 4.010799996
2/1/2024 2.27127267 1.147979029 0.4419483 3.861199999
3/1/2024 2.202920327 1.128187986 0.572291688 3.903400002
4/1/2024 2.107272895 1.053871257 0.532755842 3.693899995
5/1/2024 2.041095274 1.049106891 0.410797844 3.501000009
6/1/2024 1.981041437 0.997505338 0.400653227 3.379200002
7/1/2024 1.917859792 0.995860722 0.372779487 3.2865
8/1/2024 1.871198794 0.955264188 0.452937018 3.279400001
9/1/2024 1.835088172 0.962762515 0.699149313 3.497
10/1/2024 1.801110055 0.939680641 0.760009304 3.500799999
11/1/2024 1.773387102 0.94225233 0.756460564 3.472099997
12/1/2024 1.752479598 0.936353612 0.707566786 3.396399996
1/1/2025 1.738737322 0.944237371 0.794925312 3.477900004
2/1/2025 1.758222972 0.975673586 0.694903442 3.428800001
3/1/2025 1.757416909 0.98447454 0.451808551 3.193700001
4/1/2025 1.78229446 1.011925549 0.386479986 3.180699995
5/1/2025 1.783431943 1.021677862 0.406490186 3.211599991
6/1/2025 1.795673533 1.039473941 0.482052527 3.317200001
7/1/2025 1.7981755 1.050759606 0.580964894 3.4299

Panel (b) UK
Percent

Date Global Regional Country specific Core inflation
1/1/2018 0.107344748 1.061622127 1.231033123 2.399999998
2/1/2018 0.131114025 1.043986207 1.024899765 2.199999998
3/1/2018 0.174479522 1.024758955 0.900761521 2.099999997
4/1/2018 0.175598302 1.003512874 0.820888827 2.000000003
5/1/2018 0.203873358 0.982507985 0.813618662 2.000000005
6/1/2018 0.213390701 0.960569828 0.626039482 1.800000011
7/1/2018 0.248368648 0.939099529 0.612531822 1.799999999
8/1/2018 0.263598875 0.917963874 0.718437253 1.900000003
9/1/2018 0.268333006 0.897086037 0.63458095 1.799999992
10/1/2018 0.29757841 0.877900505 0.624521083 1.799999997
11/1/2018 0.298169601 0.858800725 0.643029686 1.800000012
12/1/2018 0.339591933 0.842323509 0.618084551 1.799999993
1/1/2019 0.34229194 0.825650101 0.63205795 1.799999991
2/1/2019 0.382068193 0.813073528 0.604858271 1.799999992
3/1/2019 0.387458838 0.799673494 0.612867664 1.799999996
4/1/2019 0.441131055 0.792196106 0.466672828 1.699999989
5/1/2019 0.453950865 0.783616476 0.462432653 1.699999995
6/1/2019 0.493576537 0.782270698 0.424152803 1.700000039
7/1/2019 0.502032653 0.780739482 0.617227853 1.899999988
8/1/2019 0.528665296 0.786703591 0.184631109 1.499999996
9/1/2019 0.527836182 0.79445815 0.27770567 1.600000002
10/1/2019 0.526471368 0.810027368 0.363501238 1.699999974
11/1/2019 0.522001205 0.829039328 0.348959443 1.699999976
12/1/2019 0.479943265 0.855488734 0.064568027 1.400000026
1/1/2020 0.451652813 0.886938373 0.261408843 1.60000003
2/1/2020 0.358562479 0.925166377 0.416271156 1.700000011
3/1/2020 0.2968059 0.969899255 0.333294836 1.599999991
4/1/2020 0.143151068 1.020364931 0.336484003 1.500000003
5/1/2020 0.06517488 1.079593754 0.155231379 1.300000012
6/1/2020 -0.062885733 1.14307789 0.419807834 1.499999992
7/1/2020 -0.132259881 1.216998455 0.715261429 1.800000003
8/1/2020 -0.276343051 1.292630001 -0.016286922 1.000000028
9/1/2020 -0.319119676 1.380185339 0.338934328 1.399999991
10/1/2020 -0.447420734 1.46822664 0.479194104 1.50000001
11/1/2020 -0.480733349 1.567903177 0.112830169 1.199999996
12/1/2020 -0.594530007 1.665621314 0.428908722 1.500000029
1/1/2021 -0.604248321 1.774946065 0.329302275 1.50000002
2/1/2021 -0.711072007 1.878516057 -0.067444061 1.09999999
3/1/2021 -0.731651021 1.991939255 0.039711783 1.300000017
4/1/2021 -0.795070041 2.100713829 0.194356201 1.499999989
5/1/2021 -0.793570254 2.217204927 0.576365299 1.999999973
6/1/2021 -0.816286983 2.329910905 0.786376055 2.299999977
7/1/2021 -0.809357087 2.446861462 0.262495632 1.900000007
8/1/2021 -0.802068972 2.560068747 1.14200027 2.900000046
9/1/2021 -0.798218839 2.673452576 0.824766288 2.700000025
10/1/2021 -0.754567787 2.781867673 1.072700071 3.099999957
11/1/2021 -0.717460886 2.88726305 1.430197852 3.600000015
12/1/2021 -0.59726877 2.986193629 1.411075117 3.799999976
1/1/2022 -0.512538781 3.078308298 1.434230469 3.999999985
2/1/2022 -0.300656537 3.163827363 1.736829183 4.60000001
3/1/2022 -0.132456873 3.239357997 1.99309881 5.099999934
4/1/2022 0.155301567 3.306065727 1.9386327 5.399999994
5/1/2022 0.361320291 3.360595374 1.478084364 5.200000029
6/1/2022 0.620206981 3.403656577 1.176136399 5.199999957
7/1/2022 0.84733256 3.432894043 1.219773425 5.500000028
8/1/2022 1.103230426 3.44989627 1.046873318 5.600000013
9/1/2022 1.321468194 3.450789136 1.027742663 5.799999993
10/1/2022 1.550968234 3.439666756 0.809365136 5.800000126
11/1/2022 1.722177306 3.410619049 0.567203705 5.700000061
12/1/2022 1.909109797 3.371072404 0.519818052 5.800000253
1/1/2023 2.045260967 3.313042465 -0.058303454 5.299999977
2/1/2023 2.194942422 3.24598157 0.259076056 5.700000047
3/1/2023 2.299552436 3.160278837 0.240168557 5.69999983
4/1/2023 2.4022955 3.066542737 0.731161659 6.199999896
5/1/2023 2.460525629 2.955407014 1.084067091 6.499999734
6/1/2023 2.49711253 2.838093265 1.064794165 6.39999996
7/1/2023 2.51450089 2.707067487 1.178431651 6.400000028
8/1/2023 2.525995272 2.572187077 0.80181765 5.899999999
9/1/2023 2.504584693 2.428491004 0.966924221 5.899999917
10/1/2023 2.494364602 2.285237465 0.820397759 5.599999826
11/1/2023 2.464528624 2.138230729 0.597240682 5.200000035
12/1/2023 2.416171625 1.995161223 0.788667093 5.199999941
1/1/2024 2.355712119 1.853283007 0.891004831 5.099999957
2/1/2024 2.27127267 1.71773522 0.810992133 4.800000022
3/1/2024 2.202920327 1.587066293 0.910013304 4.699999924
4/1/2024 2.107272895 1.464344449 0.828382713 4.400000058
5/1/2024 2.041095274 1.348526007 0.81037877 4.200000052
6/1/2024 1.981041437 1.241602197 0.977356391 4.200000026
7/1/2024 1.917859792 1.140822591 1.041317701 4.100000083
8/1/2024 1.871198794 1.04854096 1.380260271 4.300000025
9/1/2024 1.835088172 0.960499603 1.204412255 4.000000029
10/1/2024 1.801110055 0.879658897 1.419231048 4.1
11/1/2024 1.773387102 0.801565652 1.825047195 4.399999949
12/1/2024 1.752479598 0.729291651 1.71822877 4.20000002
1/1/2025 1.738737322 0.65790325 2.203359461 4.600000032
2/1/2025 1.758222972 0.591615 2.050162016 4.399999989
3/1/2025 1.757416909 0.525202878 1.917380222 4.200000009
4/1/2025 1.78229446 0.463757359 2.253948132 4.499999951
5/1/2025 1.783431943 0.401363584 2.0152046 4.200000126
6/1/2025 1.795673533 0.342548942 2.161777552 4.300000027
7/1/2025 1.7981755 0.284146231 2.117678268 4.2

Panel (c) Canada
Percent

Date Global Regional Country specific Core inflation
1/1/2018 0.107344748 1.772656035 -0.226900784 1.653099999
2/1/2018 0.131114025 1.792994088 0.076391886 2.0005
3/1/2018 0.174479522 1.8285333 0.11538718 2.118400002
4/1/2018 0.175598302 1.838107434 0.064094264 2.0778
5/1/2018 0.203873358 1.863743458 -0.270416815 1.797200001
6/1/2018 0.213390701 1.865804931 -0.130795634 1.948399999
7/1/2018 0.248368648 1.892277893 0.324553458 2.465199999
8/1/2018 0.263598875 1.878690272 0.344210853 2.4865
9/1/2018 0.268333006 1.871318706 -0.176451712 1.9632
10/1/2018 0.29757841 1.853976075 0.010745516 2.1623
11/1/2018 0.298169601 1.839195192 -0.153264793 1.9841
12/1/2018 0.339591933 1.821233015 0.253075051 2.4139
1/1/2019 0.34229194 1.796338047 -0.105929988 2.0327
2/1/2019 0.382068193 1.76700052 -0.264468712 1.884600001
3/1/2019 0.387458838 1.748801841 -0.258760677 1.877500002
4/1/2019 0.441131055 1.728686905 -0.127417959 2.042400001
5/1/2019 0.453950865 1.717402675 0.266146459 2.437499999
6/1/2019 0.493576537 1.697473554 0.140149912 2.331200003
7/1/2019 0.502032653 1.67270009 0.030767255 2.205499998
8/1/2019 0.528665296 1.653481079 0.099353625 2.2815
9/1/2019 0.527836182 1.618949279 0.01591454 2.162700001
10/1/2019 0.526471368 1.590558887 -0.114630254 2.0024
11/1/2019 0.522001205 1.553926203 -0.06602741 2.009899999
12/1/2019 0.479943265 1.527409243 -0.136552506 1.870800002
1/1/2020 0.451652813 1.489238164 -0.072590977 1.868299999
2/1/2020 0.358562479 1.475283311 0.11075421 1.9446
3/1/2020 0.2968059 1.434333271 -0.047339168 1.683800002
4/1/2020 0.143151068 1.42569435 -0.337745417 1.231100001
5/1/2020 0.06517488 1.404964276 -0.758139154 0.712000002
6/1/2020 -0.062885733 1.45857653 -0.295790796 1.099900001
7/1/2020 -0.132259881 1.490090644 -0.814430761 0.543400001
8/1/2020 -0.276343051 1.592183965 -0.864740917 0.451099998
9/1/2020 -0.319119676 1.687528511 -0.472908835 0.895499999
10/1/2020 -0.447420734 1.835402708 -0.423581972 0.964400002
11/1/2020 -0.480733349 1.972466005 -0.107132659 1.384599996
12/1/2020 -0.594530007 2.158387739 -0.436957729 1.126900003
1/1/2021 -0.604248321 2.325970894 -0.278822573 1.442900001
2/1/2021 -0.711072007 2.558549096 -0.904977087 0.942500002
3/1/2021 -0.731651021 2.767752233 -0.932701213 1.103399998
4/1/2021 -0.795070041 3.078524946 -0.351754901 1.931700004
5/1/2021 -0.793570254 3.316462801 -0.155592553 2.367299994
6/1/2021 -0.816286983 3.601389078 -0.65980209 2.125300005
7/1/2021 -0.809357087 3.818546677 -0.206389587 2.802800003
8/1/2021 -0.802068972 4.060270307 -0.296501337 2.961699998
9/1/2021 -0.798218839 4.238743151 -0.309124316 3.131399996
10/1/2021 -0.754567787 4.441898066 -0.611630279 3.0757
11/1/2021 -0.717460886 4.584303627 -0.880142735 2.986700005
12/1/2021 -0.59726877 4.741007744 -0.818738974 3.325000001
1/1/2022 -0.512538781 4.848561162 -0.857422375 3.478600005
2/1/2022 -0.300656537 4.931489138 -0.714132605 3.916699996
3/1/2022 -0.132456873 4.980284442 -0.212327577 4.635499992
4/1/2022 0.155301567 4.962170859 -0.39247243 4.724999997
5/1/2022 0.361320291 4.928322773 -0.251943064 5.037700001
6/1/2022 0.620206981 4.834808233 -0.229715216 5.225299998
7/1/2022 0.84733256 4.73129944 -0.15253199 5.426100011
8/1/2022 1.103230426 4.570573666 -0.275304088 5.398500004
9/1/2022 1.321468194 4.410398174 -0.150266374 5.581599994
10/1/2022 1.550968234 4.181916743 -0.287184981 5.445699997
11/1/2022 1.722177306 3.962459281 -0.178936591 5.505699996
12/1/2022 1.909109797 3.699866654 -0.026976459 5.581999992
1/1/2023 2.045260967 3.442688432 -0.288949387 5.199000011
2/1/2023 2.194942422 3.164499484 -0.319941905 5.0395
3/1/2023 2.299552436 2.909806044 -0.599758481 4.609599999
4/1/2023 2.4022955 2.640802126 -0.498297625 4.544800001
5/1/2023 2.460525629 2.412744231 -0.514269877 4.358999984
6/1/2023 2.49711253 2.162190895 -0.674103439 3.985199986
7/1/2023 2.51450089 1.975830762 -0.667931671 3.822399982
8/1/2023 2.525995272 1.780122149 -0.43291743 3.873199992
9/1/2023 2.504584693 1.63857814 -0.712662845 3.430499987
10/1/2023 2.494364602 1.495145414 -0.316610015 3.672900002
11/1/2023 2.464528624 1.412822933 -0.094151558 3.783199999
12/1/2023 2.416171625 1.295267171 -0.171838797 3.5396
1/1/2024 2.355712119 1.24390725 -0.325419377 3.274199993
2/1/2024 2.27127267 1.147979029 -0.469151697 2.950100001
3/1/2024 2.202920327 1.128187986 -0.290508314 3.0406
4/1/2024 2.107272895 1.053871257 -0.453544157 2.707599996
5/1/2024 2.041095274 1.049106891 -0.184202155 2.90600001
6/1/2024 1.981041437 0.997505338 -0.070946772 2.907600003
7/1/2024 1.917859792 0.995860722 -0.181820517 2.731899997
8/1/2024 1.871198794 0.955264188 -0.366462981 2.460000002
9/1/2024 1.835088172 0.962762515 -0.381750679 2.416100008
10/1/2024 1.801110055 0.939680641 -0.353890698 2.386899998
11/1/2024 1.773387102 0.94225233 -0.646339434 2.069299998
12/1/2024 1.752479598 0.936353612 -0.800233217 1.888599994
1/1/2025 1.738737322 0.944237371 -1.073874689 1.609100004
2/1/2025 1.758222972 0.975673586 -0.143996558 2.589900001
3/1/2025 1.757416909 0.98447454 -0.309691463 2.432199987
4/1/2025 1.78229446 1.011925549 0.005479985 2.799699994
5/1/2025 1.783431943 1.021677862 -0.216609808 2.588499997
6/1/2025 1.795673533 1.039473941 -0.190247473 2.644900002
7/1/2025 1.7981755 1.050759606 -0.325735106 2.5232

Panel (d) France
Percent

Date Global Regional Country specific Core inflation
1/1/2018 0.107344748 1.061622127 -0.214466871 0.954500004
2/1/2018 0.131114025 1.043986207 -0.333200237 0.841899996
3/1/2018 0.174479522 1.024758955 0.026961524 1.2262
4/1/2018 0.175598302 1.003512874 -0.00111117 1.178000006
5/1/2018 0.203873358 0.982507985 0.083118669 1.269500011
6/1/2018 0.213390701 0.960569828 -0.133060517 1.040900013
7/1/2018 0.248368648 0.939099529 -0.002868199 1.184599979
8/1/2018 0.263598875 0.917963874 0.037937257 1.219500006
9/1/2018 0.268333006 0.897086037 -0.153619038 1.011800004
10/1/2018 0.29757841 0.877900505 -0.132178925 1.043299989
11/1/2018 0.298169601 0.858800725 -0.218070311 0.938900015
12/1/2018 0.339591933 0.842323509 -0.431315447 0.750599995
1/1/2019 0.34229194 0.825650101 -0.306042047 0.861899995
2/1/2019 0.382068193 0.813073528 -0.410841723 0.784299998
3/1/2019 0.387458838 0.799673494 -0.733032337 0.454099995
4/1/2019 0.441131055 0.792196106 -0.5514272 0.681899961
5/1/2019 0.453950865 0.783616476 -0.786567339 0.451000003
6/1/2019 0.493576537 0.782270698 -0.471247245 0.804599991
7/1/2019 0.502032653 0.780739482 -0.53337215 0.749399985
8/1/2019 0.528665296 0.786703591 -0.635668894 0.679699993
9/1/2019 0.527836182 0.79445815 -0.519094329 0.803200002
10/1/2019 0.526471368 0.810027368 -0.467798756 0.868699979
11/1/2019 0.522001205 0.829039328 -0.313740537 1.037299996
12/1/2019 0.479943265 0.855488734 -0.092331973 1.243100026
1/1/2020 0.451652813 0.886938373 -0.221091168 1.117500018
2/1/2020 0.358562479 0.925166377 0.132371121 1.416099976
3/1/2020 0.2968059 0.969899255 -0.342505132 0.924200023
4/1/2020 0.143151068 1.020364931 -0.591415977 0.572100022
5/1/2020 0.06517488 1.079593754 -0.225568636 0.919199998
6/1/2020 -0.062885733 1.14307789 -0.351392172 0.728799985
7/1/2020 -0.132259881 1.216998455 0.493661427 1.578400001
8/1/2020 -0.276343051 1.292630001 -0.142486921 0.873800029
9/1/2020 -0.319119676 1.380185339 -0.319365654 0.741700009
10/1/2020 -0.447420734 1.46822664 -0.436105961 0.584699945
11/1/2020 -0.480733349 1.567903177 -0.413369822 0.673800005
12/1/2020 -0.594530007 1.665621314 -0.56639127 0.504700037
1/1/2021 -0.604248321 1.774946065 -0.02459771 1.146100035
2/1/2021 -0.711072007 1.878516057 -0.431444098 0.735999952
3/1/2021 -0.731651021 1.991939255 -0.471988261 0.788299973
4/1/2021 -0.795070041 2.100713829 -0.443543759 0.862100029
5/1/2021 -0.793570254 2.217204927 -0.600234666 0.823400007
6/1/2021 -0.816286983 2.329910905 -0.603923978 0.909699944
7/1/2021 -0.809357087 2.446861462 -1.513104405 0.12439997
8/1/2021 -0.802068972 2.560068747 -0.851399722 0.906600053
9/1/2021 -0.798218839 2.673452576 -0.740633728 1.134600009
10/1/2021 -0.754567787 2.781867673 -0.731999937 1.295299949
11/1/2021 -0.717460886 2.88726305 -0.79090213 1.378900033
12/1/2021 -0.59726877 2.986193629 -1.013924857 1.375000002
1/1/2022 -0.512538781 3.078308298 -1.270869569 1.294899948
2/1/2022 -0.300656537 3.163827363 -0.884670814 1.978500012
3/1/2022 -0.132456873 3.239357997 -1.086801128 2.020099996
4/1/2022 0.155301567 3.306065727 -0.863767262 2.597600032
5/1/2022 0.361320291 3.360595374 -0.917315726 2.804599939
6/1/2022 0.620206981 3.403656577 -1.285563564 2.738299994
7/1/2022 0.84733256 3.432894043 -0.945026592 3.335200011
8/1/2022 1.103230426 3.44989627 -1.031526671 3.521600025
9/1/2022 1.321468194 3.450789136 -1.673357337 3.098899993
10/1/2022 1.550968234 3.439666756 -1.708834848 3.281800143
11/1/2022 1.722177306 3.410619049 -1.85069638 3.282099976
12/1/2022 1.909109797 3.371072404 -1.916482043 3.363700158
1/1/2023 2.045260967 3.313042465 -2.138203553 3.220099878
2/1/2023 2.194942422 3.24598157 -1.868923979 3.572000013
3/1/2023 2.299552436 3.160278837 -1.73683149 3.722999783
4/1/2023 2.4022955 3.066542737 -1.576838196 3.892000041
5/1/2023 2.460525629 2.955407014 -1.768932908 3.646999735
6/1/2023 2.49711253 2.838093265 -1.648805782 3.686400012
7/1/2023 2.51450089 2.707067487 -1.648668335 3.572900042
8/1/2023 2.525995272 2.572187077 -1.77618231 3.322000039
9/1/2023 2.504584693 2.428491004 -1.812075729 3.120999968
10/1/2023 2.494364602 2.285237465 -1.633002117 3.14659995
11/1/2023 2.464528624 2.138230729 -1.83745935 2.765300003
12/1/2023 2.416171625 1.995161223 -1.62243297 2.788899878
1/1/2024 2.355712119 1.853283007 -1.427595066 2.78140006
2/1/2024 2.27127267 1.71773522 -1.295207843 2.693800046
3/1/2024 2.202920327 1.587066293 -1.471186755 2.318799866
4/1/2024 2.107272895 1.464344449 -1.380817321 2.190800023
5/1/2024 2.041095274 1.348526007 -1.302821239 2.086800043
6/1/2024 1.981041437 1.241602197 -1.101743627 2.120900007
7/1/2024 1.917859792 1.140822591 -1.101782394 1.956899989
8/1/2024 1.871198794 1.04854096 -0.720939786 2.198799968
9/1/2024 1.835088172 0.960499603 -1.071187793 1.724399982
10/1/2024 1.801110055 0.879658897 -0.98856898 1.692199972
11/1/2024 1.773387102 0.801565652 -0.891752727 1.683200027
12/1/2024 1.752479598 0.729291651 -0.91607125 1.565699999
1/1/2025 1.738737322 0.65790325 -0.579540577 1.817099995
2/1/2025 1.758222972 0.591615 -0.751137961 1.598700011
3/1/2025 1.757416909 0.525202878 -0.722119858 1.560499929
4/1/2025 1.78229446 0.463757359 -0.615851852 1.630199967
5/1/2025 1.783431943 0.401363584 -0.770195343 1.414600183
6/1/2025 1.795673533 0.342548942 -0.47982243 1.658400045
7/1/2025 1.7981755 0.284146231 -0.363521732 1.7188

Note: Each panel decomposes core inflation for a given country. The solid black line is 12-month core inflation, also equal to the sum of the components. The bars represent the global, regional, and country-specific components.

Source: Authors' calculations.

Return to text

Figure 5: Drivers of Changes in Global Component

Percent

Date Change in global component Oil prices Global supply frictions Global labor market tightness Trend + residual
1/1/2019 0.075489688 -0.010623532 0.442637163 0.183268883 -0.539792826
2/1/2019 0.089899163 -0.073168045 0.385138101 0.178219433 -0.400290325
3/1/2019 0.049965908 -0.154393687 0.409198488 0.174707644 -0.379546538
4/1/2019 0.101199799 -0.070723433 0.39053688 0.165182484 -0.383796131
5/1/2019 0.084089755 -0.0457346 0.35998162 0.152425534 -0.382582799
6/1/2019 0.113628407 -0.144706445 0.366482478 0.142514061 -0.250661687
7/1/2019 0.085379858 -0.109778489 0.382671343 0.133537439 -0.321050436
8/1/2019 0.095485526 -0.141387443 0.269967133 0.125320038 -0.158414202
9/1/2019 0.088011067 -0.009557182 0.240485507 0.113474909 -0.256392167
10/1/2019 0.055746367 0.004048077 0.261221476 0.105887215 -0.315410401
11/1/2019 0.049257079 -0.171289124 0.250478876 0.095081306 -0.12501398
12/1/2019 -0.035338478 -0.314494638 0.295290008 0.080388866 -0.096522714
1/1/2020 -0.067062893 -0.279287392 0.217118113 0.071213385 -0.076106999
2/1/2020 -0.199332229 -0.271478206 0.091646372 0.063753146 -0.083253541
3/1/2020 -0.264845475 -0.307249434 0.083795466 0.041513568 -0.082905075
4/1/2020 -0.472130546 -0.253150409 -0.05909341 -0.010939625 -0.148947102
5/1/2020 -0.563550727 -0.173911579 -0.152878751 -0.067949639 -0.168810759
6/1/2020 -0.734049199 -0.220127494 -0.248100655 -0.121818768 -0.144002282
7/1/2020 -0.813542696 -0.226813132 -0.320834558 -0.176833375 -0.089061632
8/1/2020 -0.986751701 -0.33426654 -0.241966371 -0.226361954 -0.184156835
9/1/2020 -1.030893245 -0.295536449 -0.378073027 -0.268596468 -0.0886873
10/1/2020 -1.160172401 -0.339760304 -0.728277779 -0.308174937 0.216040618
11/1/2020 -1.19166054 -0.383687942 -0.758056189 -0.337648607 0.287732198
12/1/2020 -1.266492858 -0.334414503 -0.536824944 -0.369898352 -0.025355059
1/1/2021 -1.251493031 -0.375498113 -0.400147246 -0.404533628 -0.071314043
2/1/2021 -1.269596863 -0.417838626 -0.30294969 -0.438427042 -0.110381505
3/1/2021 -1.233240645 -0.59421251 -0.246144286 -0.438531354 0.045647505
4/1/2021 -1.145063473 -0.466470129 -0.162183238 -0.373692227 -0.14271788
5/1/2021 -1.065503689 -0.587728019 -0.004290255 -0.295518488 -0.177966928
6/1/2021 -0.955523045 -0.546870731 0.116110391 -0.220024105 -0.3047386
7/1/2021 -0.876583366 -0.512186503 0.073192475 -0.138609008 -0.29898033
8/1/2021 -0.722482271 -0.539768022 0.136447832 -0.063951036 -0.255211045
9/1/2021 -0.673644251 -0.553469568 0.361047376 0.003121189 -0.484343249
10/1/2021 -0.498960109 -0.510373987 0.502830836 0.066780123 -0.558197082
11/1/2021 -0.426924927 -0.443587286 0.369471719 0.122055453 -0.474864813
12/1/2021 -0.19116233 -0.369268049 0.408527756 0.184221204 -0.414643241
1/1/2022 -0.094466048 -0.28057402 0.424033662 0.249382973 -0.487308663
2/1/2022 0.226777758 -0.199094111 0.576219655 0.314355452 -0.464703238
3/1/2022 0.416853543 -0.175425676 0.529498687 0.357920896 -0.295140364
4/1/2022 0.765400449 -0.315062234 0.93640779 0.373208218 -0.229153324
5/1/2022 0.963685968 -0.190365052 1.353589793 0.378621005 -0.578159778
6/1/2022 1.234129712 -0.033576992 1.299954581 0.374883041 -0.407130919
7/1/2022 1.446800159 -0.033900183 1.361387876 0.361938971 -0.242626505
8/1/2022 1.688811165 -0.114607741 1.484445778 0.34545193 -0.026478802
9/1/2022 1.898187542 -0.134071459 1.560363497 0.328796877 0.143098626
10/1/2022 2.078551192 0.017437596 1.633354003 0.308426949 0.119332644
11/1/2022 2.209027772 -0.020591903 1.622243383 0.289050343 0.318325949
12/1/2022 2.273200723 -0.146598148 1.475276025 0.261672357 0.682850488
1/1/2023 2.320916613 0.086103945 1.228620637 0.230647507 0.775544524
2/1/2023 2.255224046 0.340798426 1.203343623 0.194389618 0.516692379
3/1/2023 2.18933459 0.922951536 0.760747682 0.158736401 0.34689897
4/1/2023 2.005227915 1.101474967 0.639564935 0.119899712 0.144288301
5/1/2023 1.86283577 0.930920664 0.846409053 0.080363748 0.005142305
6/1/2023 1.645979445 0.950673806 0.486762494 0.049481817 0.159061328
7/1/2023 1.439724758 0.750783736 0.683862527 0.021831566 -0.016753071
8/1/2023 1.19780394 0.506629753 0.927852298 0.002228729 -0.23890684
9/1/2023 0.958669709 0.444520316 0.665886905 -0.017142314 -0.134595198
10/1/2023 0.720222915 0.559362651 0.429180008 -0.034125711 -0.234194034
11/1/2023 0.518304224 0.453871992 0.300517677 -0.050348079 -0.185737365
12/1/2023 0.282131357 0.149995296 0.223375942 -0.059890624 -0.031349256
1/1/2024 0.083943001 0.222156726 0.189798934 -0.068490528 -0.259522131
2/1/2024 -0.150887784 0.226599802 0.173768141 -0.076412381 -0.474843346
3/1/2024 -0.326206257 0.2350054 0.086361981 -0.08366205 -0.563911588
4/1/2024 -0.526997726 0.295477912 -0.19209851 -0.08938563 -0.540991498
5/1/2024 -0.657095375 0.140268298 -0.455822346 -0.091112582 -0.250428746
6/1/2024 -0.756960839 0.138263882 -0.322652432 -0.091773193 -0.480799095
7/1/2024 -0.841979417 0.173955254 -0.352384238 -0.092020508 -0.571529925
8/1/2024 -0.903063143 0.225328014 -0.44885592 -0.093853635 -0.585681601
9/1/2024 -0.921578367 0.274862396 -0.636333467 -0.092702343 -0.467404953
10/1/2024 -0.947808473 0.206325425 -0.682637561 -0.091128048 -0.38036829
11/1/2024 -0.949666411 0.074526017 -0.695101117 -0.091147324 -0.237943987
12/1/2024 -0.923967121 -0.01593218 -0.70147612 -0.092151829 -0.114406991
1/1/2025 -0.881373793 0.002048539 -0.30976885 -0.092377809 -0.481275673
2/1/2025 -0.778479387 0.012339411 -0.366920322 -0.089735282 -0.334163194
3/1/2025 -0.714930776 -0.02306747 -0.226279396 -0.086179015 -0.379404896
4/1/2025 -0.594423809 0.077476625 -0.211671433 -0.08248756 -0.377741442
5/1/2025 -0.530122965 -0.105865983 -0.5452124 -0.079785116 0.200740535
6/1/2025 -0.457445057 -0.09067669 -0.263865733 -0.077948289 -0.024954345

Note: This decomposition uses the estimated coefficients reported below,

$$ \Delta\mu_t^{Global}=-0.002t\ -0.278\ast\ Global \text{_} ugap_t+0.028\ast\Delta{SeaFreight}_t\ +0.033\ast\Delta{SeaFreight}_{t-12}$$

$$ +0.041 \ast Global \text{_} Manuf \text{_} Backlog_{t-6}+0.003\ast\Delta{Brent}_t^{Spot}\ +0.003\ast\Delta{Brent}_{t-24}^{Spot} $$

$$ +0.019\ast{Brent}_{t-12}^{Spot}+\ {\hat{\varepsilon}}_t, $$

and groups the contributions of the explanatory variables by broad category. Supply frictions include change in sea freight costs ($$SeaFreight$$) and global manufacturing backlogs ($$Global \text{_} Manuf \text{_} Backlog$$). The operator $$\Delta$$ denotes the twelve-month change. All coefficients are significant at the 5 percent level using heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent standard errors.

Source: OECD Main Economic Indicators, S&P Global Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI), Current Population Survey, Producer Price Index, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Japan Ministry of Health Labor and Welfare, Statistics Canada, Instituto Nazionale di Statistica, INSEE, Deutsche Bundesbank, UK Office for National Statistics, Statistics Austria, Instituto Nacional de Estatistica, Statistics Finland, Luxembourg Central Service of Statistics and Economic Studies, Statistics Netherlands; all via Haver Analytics.

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Figure 6: Drivers of Changes in North America Regional Component

Percent

Date Change in N. America component Regional savings Regional labor market tightness Residual
4/1/2016 0.78533408 0.069626238 -0.643439788 1.359147629
5/1/2016 0.730966216 0.063636885 -0.417953556 1.085282888
6/1/2016 0.680564971 0.066631561 -0.428144654 1.042078064
7/1/2016 0.625851555 0.054652854 -0.533621167 1.104819868
8/1/2016 0.582081693 0.051658177 -0.417986766 0.948410283
9/1/2016 0.532168728 0.039679469 -0.54789481 1.040384068
10/1/2016 0.497318075 0.038182131 -0.583611288 1.042747233
11/1/2016 0.452480832 0.014224715 -0.366615122 0.804871238
12/1/2016 0.418706434 -7.49E-04 -0.297043994 0.716499097
1/1/2017 0.377520326 -0.0681289 -0.437542661 0.883191887
2/1/2017 0.323772184 -0.162461223 -0.28103908 0.767272487
3/1/2017 0.259770164 -0.193905331 -0.282558991 0.736234486
4/1/2017 0.18521573 -0.190910654 -0.035327265 0.411453648
5/1/2017 0.122163494 -0.174439931 -0.20211599 0.498719415
6/1/2017 0.054462327 -0.166953238 -0.079278708 0.300694274
7/1/2017 0.013858887 -0.137006469 -0.170908008 0.321773364
8/1/2017 -0.02429597 -0.120535746 -0.014536721 0.110776498
9/1/2017 -0.040103941 -0.113049054 0.216819143 -0.14387403
10/1/2017 -0.053462976 -0.092086315 0.204648324 -0.166024985
11/1/2017 -0.040258741 -0.066631561 0.174240927 -0.147868107
12/1/2017 -0.043175292 -0.081604946 0.132181605 -0.093751952
1/1/2018 -0.016825403 -0.059144869 0.270104385 -0.227784919
2/1/2018 0.010794103 -7.49E-04 0.299290999 -0.287748226
3/1/2018 0.071621047 0.008235362 0.352295784 -0.288910099
4/1/2018 0.102895768 0.014224715 0.182055802 -0.093384749
5/1/2018 0.151072072 0.033690115 0.365493994 -0.248112038
6/1/2018 0.171274963 0.021711408 0.316169121 -0.166605566
7/1/2018 0.209522766 0.0291981 0.33746728 -0.157142613
8/1/2018 0.20168595 0.050160838 0.360795662 -0.20927055
9/1/2018 0.194105225 0.057647531 0.216543222 -0.080085527
10/1/2018 0.167652295 0.0486635 0.327267038 -0.208278243
11/1/2018 0.135215413 0.021711408 0.283974124 -0.170470119
12/1/2018 0.105370017 0.008235362 0.15766928 -0.060534624
1/1/2019 0.054270865 0.0291981 0.026676736 -0.001603971
2/1/2019 0.004671927 0.023208746 -0.087165019 0.0686282
3/1/2019 -0.049338376 0.030695438 -0.07299043 -0.007043385
4/1/2019 -0.07860262 0.005240685 0.015427646 -0.099270951
5/1/2019 -0.115445379 -0.047166161 0.091565979 -0.159845197
6/1/2019 -0.136159024 -0.045668823 -0.130365806 0.039875606
7/1/2019 -0.187267278 -0.059144869 -0.1865562 0.058433791
8/1/2019 -0.19219074 -0.081604946 -0.113031664 0.00244587
9/1/2019 -0.219224717 -0.086096961 -0.079666882 -0.053460874
10/1/2019 -0.229769896 -0.074118254 -0.119750302 -0.035901341
11/1/2019 -0.250833057 -0.044171485 -0.356463299 0.149801727
12/1/2019 -0.258221218 0.089091638 -0.289358302 -0.057954554
1/1/2020 -0.269854838 0.074118254 -0.043023989 -0.300949103
2/1/2020 -0.251637761 0.090588977 -0.041255873 -0.300970864
3/1/2020 -0.270511907 0.075615592 -0.981230432 0.635102933
4/1/2020 -0.256948741 0.093583654 -0.855234547 0.504702152
5/1/2020 -0.264995091 0.116043731 -0.727233307 0.346194486
6/1/2020 -0.192535374 0.129519777 -0.833161665 0.511106514
7/1/2020 -0.136264858 0.116043731 -0.746895904 0.494587316
8/1/2020 -0.016037972 0.125027761 -0.726468022 0.58540229
9/1/2020 0.113053905 0.129519777 -0.759851777 0.743385906
10/1/2020 0.288315468 0.125027761 -0.649066403 0.81235411
11/1/2020 0.460799002 0.111551715 -0.378340621 0.727587907
12/1/2020 0.671790436 -0.018716731 -0.272864603 0.963371769
1/1/2021 0.875795372 0.056150192 -0.225395407 1.045040587
2/1/2021 1.1203308 0.113049054 -0.054666377 1.061948124
3/1/2021 1.368323229 0.3990407 0.852881706 0.116400823
4/1/2021 1.688979715 1.59391679 0.912226516 -0.817163592
5/1/2021 1.951156887 1.495092452 0.843000082 -0.386935648
6/1/2021 2.19098771 1.607392837 1.124911031 -0.541316157
7/1/2021 2.383040778 1.394770775 1.477807851 -0.489537848
8/1/2021 2.529337968 1.015944145 1.53067065 -0.017276827
9/1/2021 2.617970059 0.776369991 1.752005534 0.089594533
10/1/2021 2.678822227 0.711984438 1.845437915 0.121399874
11/1/2021 2.687608363 0.647598884 1.942214784 0.097794694
12/1/2021 2.660970952 0.64160953 2.239764272 -0.220402851
1/1/2022 2.602630622 0.939579884 1.832014701 -0.168963963
2/1/2022 2.453476289 0.62214413 2.169572851 -0.338240691
3/1/2022 2.290950323 1.00097076 2.488549628 -1.198570065
4/1/2022 1.954553671 -0.840755545 2.19518645 0.600122766
5/1/2022 1.670701033 -0.872199653 1.889792061 0.653108625
6/1/2022 1.274287502 -1.065356314 1.899579805 0.440064011
7/1/2022 0.938900037 -0.885675699 1.706932302 0.117643435
8/1/2022 0.52218803 -0.629630822 0.932565928 0.219252924
9/1/2022 0.171336267 -0.530806484 0.925923749 -0.223780998
10/1/2022 -0.272482143 -0.554763899 0.527248853 -0.244967097
11/1/2022 -0.643647719 -0.560753253 0.378544384 -0.46143885
12/1/2022 -1.070028736 -0.584710669 0.033938396 -0.519256463
1/1/2023 -1.441464934 -1.042896237 0.232108796 -0.630677493
2/1/2023 -1.807417114 -0.764391284 -0.585796873 -0.457228958
3/1/2023 -2.112976471 -1.420225529 -0.960503804 0.267752862
4/1/2023 -2.361057054 -0.837760868 -0.658553279 -0.864742907
5/1/2023 -2.546785834 -0.744925884 -0.908569019 -0.893290931
6/1/2023 -2.693802272 -0.723963145 -0.949365059 -1.020474068
7/1/2023 -2.767903798 -0.632625499 -1.286479072 -0.848799227
8/1/2023 -2.793916092 -0.518827776 -0.681718447 -1.593369868
9/1/2023 -2.768272936 -0.387061992 -1.016131271 -1.365079674
10/1/2023 -2.674680778 -0.279253623 -1.107027039 -1.288400117
11/1/2023 -2.531688312 -0.171445254 -0.986339014 -1.373904044
12/1/2023 -2.380193884 -0.077112931 -1.172694301 -1.130386653
1/1/2024 -2.169623522 7.49E-04 -1.090024836 -1.080347356
2/1/2024 -1.981237155 -0.033690115 -0.803246424 -1.144300616
3/1/2024 -1.743152563 -0.014224715 -0.927294448 -0.801633399
4/1/2024 -1.54469177 0.045668823 -1.293613759 -0.296746834
5/1/2024 -1.322277501 0.101070346 -0.85518332 -0.568164527
6/1/2024 -1.120959801 0.156471869 -1.038009755 -0.239421915
7/1/2024 -0.936542892 0.105562361 -0.897657253 -0.144448001
8/1/2024 -0.779194541 0.1265251 -0.807522908 -0.098196733
9/1/2024 -0.63025796 0.129519777 -0.82327435 0.063496614
10/1/2024 -0.507465573 0.1070597 -0.407837453 -0.206687821
11/1/2024 -0.423098728 0.080107608 -0.518967358 0.015761023
12/1/2024 -0.308496972 0.035187454 -0.428157977 0.084473551
1/1/2025 -0.250153718 0.095080992 -0.443336256 0.098101546
2/1/2025 -0.119449837 0.105562361 -0.456968298 0.2319561
3/1/2025 -0.091812971 0.098075669 -0.489638322 0.299749682

Note: This decomposition uses the estimated coefficients reported below

$$ \Delta\mu_t^{N.Amer.}=2.851\ast\Delta VU \text{_} ratio_t^{N.Amer.}+0.216\ast\ \Delta Weekly \text{_} earnings_t^{N.Amer.}+ $$

$$ 0.090\ast\Delta Pers \text{_} savings \text{_} rate_{t-12}^{N.Amer.}+\ {\hat{\varepsilon}}_t, $$

and groups the contributions of change in openings-to-unemployment ($$VU \text{_} ratio$$) and average weekly earnings ($$Weekly \text{_} earnings$$) into the labor market tightness category. Explanatory variables are the averages for the U.S. and Canada. The operator $$\Delta$$ denotes the twelve-month change. All coefficients, except the one on supplier delivery times, are significant at the 5 percent level using heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent standard errors.

Source: OECD Main Economic Indicators, Current Employment Statistics, Current Population Survey, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, National Income and Product Accounts; all via Haver Analytics.

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Last Update: September 19, 2025