Accessible Version
Labor Market Outcomes in Metropolitan and Non-Metropolitan Areas: Signs of Growing Disparities, Accessible Data
Chart 1: Prime-Age Unemployment Rates by Metropolitan Status
Percent
| Date | Non-Metro | Smaller MSAs (100K-500K) | Larger MSAs (500K+) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1/12/1996 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.5 |
| 2/12/1996 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.5 |
| 3/12/1996 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.4 |
| 4/12/1996 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 |
| 5/12/1996 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| 6/12/1996 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 |
| 7/12/1996 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| 8/12/1996 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| 9/12/1996 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.3 |
| 10/12/1996 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| 11/12/1996 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 4.2 |
| 12/12/1996 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| 1/12/1997 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| 2/12/1997 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 4.1 |
| 3/12/1997 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 4.1 |
| 4/12/1997 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 4.0 |
| 5/12/1997 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 4.0 |
| 6/12/1997 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.9 |
| 7/12/1997 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.9 |
| 8/12/1997 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.8 |
| 9/12/1997 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.8 |
| 10/12/1997 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.7 |
| 11/12/1997 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.7 |
| 12/12/1997 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.7 |
| 1/12/1998 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.6 |
| 2/12/1998 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 3.6 |
| 3/12/1998 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| 4/12/1998 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| 5/12/1998 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| 6/12/1998 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| 7/12/1998 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.4 |
| 8/12/1998 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.4 |
| 9/12/1998 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.4 |
| 10/12/1998 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.3 |
| 11/12/1998 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.3 |
| 12/12/1998 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.3 |
| 1/12/1999 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.3 |
| 2/12/1999 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.3 |
| 3/12/1999 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.3 |
| 4/12/1999 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.2 |
| 5/12/1999 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.2 |
| 6/12/1999 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.2 |
| 7/12/1999 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.1 |
| 8/12/1999 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.1 |
| 9/12/1999 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.1 |
| 10/12/1999 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.1 |
| 11/12/1999 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.0 |
| 12/12/1999 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.0 |
| 1/12/2000 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.0 |
| 2/12/2000 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.0 |
| 3/12/2000 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.0 |
| 4/12/2000 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.0 |
| 5/12/2000 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 2.9 |
| 6/12/2000 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 2.9 |
| 7/12/2000 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 2.9 |
| 8/12/2000 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 2.9 |
| 9/12/2000 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.0 |
| 10/12/2000 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.0 |
| 11/12/2000 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.0 |
| 12/12/2000 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.1 |
| 1/12/2001 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.2 |
| 2/12/2001 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.2 |
| 3/12/2001 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.3 |
| 4/12/2001 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.4 |
| 5/12/2001 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.5 |
| 6/12/2001 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.6 |
| 7/12/2001 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 3.8 |
| 8/12/2001 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| 9/12/2001 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| 10/12/2001 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| 11/12/2001 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.4 |
| 12/12/2001 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 |
| 1/12/2002 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.6 |
| 2/12/2002 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.7 |
| 3/12/2002 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.8 |
| 4/12/2002 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.8 |
| 5/12/2002 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.9 |
| 6/12/2002 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.9 |
| 7/12/2002 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.9 |
| 8/12/2002 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.9 |
| 9/12/2002 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 5.0 |
| 10/12/2002 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 5.0 |
| 11/12/2002 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
| 12/12/2002 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
| 1/12/2003 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
| 2/12/2003 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.1 |
| 3/12/2003 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.1 |
| 4/12/2003 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.1 |
| 5/12/2003 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5.2 |
| 6/12/2003 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.2 |
| 7/12/2003 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.2 |
| 8/12/2003 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.1 |
| 9/12/2003 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.1 |
| 10/12/2003 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.0 |
| 11/12/2003 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| 12/12/2003 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5.0 |
| 1/12/2004 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
| 2/12/2004 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.9 |
| 3/12/2004 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.8 |
| 4/12/2004 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.8 |
| 5/12/2004 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.7 |
| 6/12/2004 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.6 |
| 7/12/2004 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.6 |
| 8/12/2004 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.6 |
| 9/12/2004 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| 10/12/2004 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 |
| 11/12/2004 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| 12/12/2004 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.4 |
| 1/12/2005 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.4 |
| 2/12/2005 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| 3/12/2005 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| 4/12/2005 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.2 |
| 5/12/2005 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.2 |
| 6/12/2005 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.2 |
| 7/12/2005 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| 8/12/2005 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.1 |
| 9/12/2005 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.1 |
| 10/12/2005 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.0 |
| 11/12/2005 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.0 |
| 12/12/2005 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.0 |
| 1/12/2006 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 3.9 |
| 2/12/2006 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 3.9 |
| 3/12/2006 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 3.9 |
| 4/12/2006 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.9 |
| 5/12/2006 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 3.8 |
| 6/12/2006 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.8 |
| 7/12/2006 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.7 |
| 8/12/2006 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.7 |
| 9/12/2006 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.7 |
| 10/12/2006 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.7 |
| 11/12/2006 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.6 |
| 12/12/2006 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.6 |
| 1/12/2007 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.6 |
| 2/12/2007 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.6 |
| 3/12/2007 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.6 |
| 4/12/2007 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.6 |
| 5/12/2007 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.6 |
| 6/12/2007 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.7 |
| 7/12/2007 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.7 |
| 8/12/2007 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 3.7 |
| 9/12/2007 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 3.7 |
| 10/12/2007 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 3.8 |
| 11/12/2007 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 3.9 |
| 12/12/2007 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 3.9 |
| 1/12/2008 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.0 |
| 2/12/2008 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 4.1 |
| 3/12/2008 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 4.2 |
| 4/12/2008 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 4.3 |
| 5/12/2008 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 4.5 |
| 6/12/2008 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 4.7 |
| 7/12/2008 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 4.9 |
| 8/12/2008 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 5.2 |
| 9/12/2008 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.5 |
| 10/12/2008 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 5.9 |
| 11/12/2008 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 6.2 |
| 12/12/2008 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| 1/12/2009 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 6.8 |
| 2/12/2009 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 7.1 |
| 3/12/2009 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 7.4 |
| 4/12/2009 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.7 |
| 5/12/2009 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| 6/12/2009 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 8.2 |
| 7/12/2009 | 8.2 | 8.5 | 8.4 |
| 8/12/2009 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 8.6 |
| 9/12/2009 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 8.7 |
| 10/12/2009 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 8.8 |
| 11/12/2009 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 8.8 |
| 12/12/2009 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 8.8 |
| 1/12/2010 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 8.8 |
| 2/12/2010 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 8.8 |
| 3/12/2010 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 8.8 |
| 4/12/2010 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 8.8 |
| 5/12/2010 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 8.7 |
| 6/12/2010 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 8.7 |
| 7/12/2010 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 8.7 |
| 8/12/2010 | 8.3 | 8.9 | 8.6 |
| 9/12/2010 | 8.2 | 8.8 | 8.6 |
| 10/12/2010 | 8.1 | 8.7 | 8.5 |
| 11/12/2010 | 8.1 | 8.7 | 8.4 |
| 12/12/2010 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 8.4 |
| 1/12/2011 | 7.9 | 8.6 | 8.3 |
| 2/12/2011 | 7.9 | 8.6 | 8.3 |
| 3/12/2011 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 8.3 |
| 4/12/2011 | 8.0 | 8.4 | 8.3 |
| 5/12/2011 | 8.0 | 8.4 | 8.2 |
| 6/12/2011 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 8.2 |
| 7/12/2011 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 8.1 |
| 8/12/2011 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 8.0 |
| 9/12/2011 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 7.9 |
| 10/12/2011 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 7.9 |
| 11/12/2011 | 7.5 | 7.9 | 7.8 |
| 12/12/2011 | 7.4 | 7.8 | 7.7 |
| 1/12/2012 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 7.6 |
| 2/12/2012 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 7.6 |
| 3/12/2012 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| 4/12/2012 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 7.4 |
| 5/12/2012 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 7.3 |
| 6/12/2012 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 7.2 |
| 7/12/2012 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 7.2 |
| 8/12/2012 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 7.1 |
| 9/12/2012 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 7.0 |
| 10/12/2012 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 7.0 |
| 11/12/2012 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.9 |
| 12/12/2012 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.9 |
| 1/12/2013 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 6.8 |
| 2/12/2013 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 6.7 |
| 3/12/2013 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 6.6 |
| 4/12/2013 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 6.6 |
| 5/12/2013 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 6.5 |
| 6/12/2013 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 6.4 |
| 7/12/2013 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 6.4 |
| 8/12/2013 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 6.3 |
| 9/12/2013 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 6.2 |
| 10/12/2013 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 6.1 |
| 11/12/2013 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 6.1 |
| 12/12/2013 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 6.0 |
| 1/12/2014 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 5.9 |
| 2/12/2014 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 5.8 |
| 3/12/2014 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 5.7 |
| 4/12/2014 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 5.6 |
| 5/12/2014 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 5.5 |
| 6/12/2014 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.4 |
| 7/12/2014 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 5.3 |
| 8/12/2014 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.2 |
| 9/12/2014 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 5.1 |
| 10/12/2014 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 5.0 |
| 11/12/2014 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
| 12/12/2014 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
| 1/12/2015 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 4.8 |
| 2/12/2015 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.7 |
| 3/12/2015 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 4.6 |
| 4/12/2015 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.6 |
| 5/12/2015 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.5 |
| 6/12/2015 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.5 |
| 7/12/2015 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.4 |
| 8/12/2015 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 4.4 |
| 9/12/2015 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 4.3 |
| 10/12/2015 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 4.2 |
| 11/12/2015 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.2 |
| 12/12/2015 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.1 |
| 1/12/2016 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.1 |
| 2/12/2016 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 4.1 |
| 3/12/2016 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.1 |
| 4/12/2016 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.1 |
| 5/12/2016 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 4.1 |
| 6/12/2016 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 4.1 |
| 7/12/2016 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 4.0 |
| 8/12/2016 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.0 |
| 9/12/2016 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.0 |
| 10/12/2016 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.0 |
| 11/12/2016 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 3.9 |
| 12/12/2016 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 3.9 |
| 1/12/2017 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 3.9 |
| 2/12/2017 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 3.8 |
| 3/12/2017 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 3.8 |
| 4/12/2017 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 3.8 |
| 5/12/2017 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 3.7 |
| 6/12/2017 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 3.7 |
| 7/12/2017 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 3.7 |
Source: Author's calculations based on CPS data. 12-month centered moving averages. Gridlines denote July.
Chart 2: Unemployment Rate Gap (Non-Metro Minus Metropolitan Unemployment) by Education
Percentage points
| Date | At Least Some College | High School Diploma or Less |
|---|---|---|
| 1/12/1996 | -0.11 | -0.66 |
| 2/12/1996 | -0.10 | -0.64 |
| 3/12/1996 | -0.06 | -0.58 |
| 4/12/1996 | -0.09 | -0.63 |
| 5/12/1996 | -0.11 | -0.58 |
| 6/12/1996 | -0.06 | -0.58 |
| 7/12/1996 | -0.06 | -0.51 |
| 8/12/1996 | -0.01 | -0.51 |
| 9/12/1996 | -0.01 | -0.41 |
| 10/12/1996 | -0.04 | -0.30 |
| 11/12/1996 | -0.06 | -0.23 |
| 12/12/1996 | -0.07 | -0.18 |
| 1/12/1997 | -0.10 | -0.22 |
| 2/12/1997 | -0.15 | -0.21 |
| 3/12/1997 | -0.10 | -0.25 |
| 4/12/1997 | -0.07 | -0.21 |
| 5/12/1997 | -0.02 | -0.29 |
| 6/12/1997 | -0.06 | -0.20 |
| 7/12/1997 | -0.01 | -0.21 |
| 8/12/1997 | -0.03 | -0.21 |
| 9/12/1997 | -0.01 | -0.28 |
| 10/12/1997 | 0.03 | -0.35 |
| 11/12/1997 | 0.06 | -0.39 |
| 12/12/1997 | 0.14 | -0.35 |
| 1/12/1998 | 0.20 | -0.25 |
| 2/12/1998 | 0.27 | -0.21 |
| 3/12/1998 | 0.22 | -0.14 |
| 4/12/1998 | 0.19 | -0.17 |
| 5/12/1998 | 0.16 | -0.15 |
| 6/12/1998 | 0.21 | -0.21 |
| 7/12/1998 | 0.19 | -0.24 |
| 8/12/1998 | 0.19 | -0.26 |
| 9/12/1998 | 0.22 | -0.25 |
| 10/12/1998 | 0.27 | -0.28 |
| 11/12/1998 | 0.26 | -0.19 |
| 12/12/1998 | 0.24 | -0.18 |
| 1/12/1999 | 0.19 | -0.19 |
| 2/12/1999 | 0.10 | -0.24 |
| 3/12/1999 | 0.08 | -0.26 |
| 4/12/1999 | 0.05 | -0.24 |
| 5/12/1999 | 0.03 | -0.23 |
| 6/12/1999 | -0.04 | -0.30 |
| 7/12/1999 | -0.06 | -0.29 |
| 8/12/1999 | -0.03 | -0.22 |
| 9/12/1999 | -0.04 | -0.13 |
| 10/12/1999 | -0.08 | -0.08 |
| 11/12/1999 | -0.06 | -0.13 |
| 12/12/1999 | -0.04 | -0.11 |
| 1/12/2000 | 0.01 | -0.08 |
| 2/12/2000 | 0.10 | -0.01 |
| 3/12/2000 | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| 4/12/2000 | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| 5/12/2000 | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| 6/12/2000 | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| 7/12/2000 | 0.15 | 0.28 |
| 8/12/2000 | 0.12 | 0.28 |
| 9/12/2000 | 0.10 | 0.24 |
| 10/12/2000 | 0.07 | 0.27 |
| 11/12/2000 | 0.02 | 0.28 |
| 12/12/2000 | -0.02 | 0.24 |
| 1/12/2001 | -0.09 | 0.17 |
| 2/12/2001 | -0.17 | 0.03 |
| 3/12/2001 | -0.17 | -0.09 |
| 4/12/2001 | -0.21 | -0.15 |
| 5/12/2001 | -0.26 | -0.12 |
| 6/12/2001 | -0.32 | -0.12 |
| 7/12/2001 | -0.37 | -0.12 |
| 8/12/2001 | -0.41 | -0.14 |
| 9/12/2001 | -0.44 | -0.13 |
| 10/12/2001 | -0.49 | -0.18 |
| 11/12/2001 | -0.60 | -0.18 |
| 12/12/2001 | -0.69 | -0.17 |
| 1/12/2002 | -0.69 | -0.20 |
| 2/12/2002 | -0.72 | -0.13 |
| 3/12/2002 | -0.77 | -0.12 |
| 4/12/2002 | -0.79 | -0.10 |
| 5/12/2002 | -0.79 | -0.17 |
| 6/12/2002 | -0.77 | -0.20 |
| 7/12/2002 | -0.78 | -0.22 |
| 8/12/2002 | -0.76 | -0.29 |
| 9/12/2002 | -0.83 | -0.37 |
| 10/12/2002 | -0.83 | -0.34 |
| 11/12/2002 | -0.80 | -0.35 |
| 12/12/2002 | -0.78 | -0.35 |
| 1/12/2003 | -0.85 | -0.34 |
| 2/12/2003 | -0.85 | -0.35 |
| 3/12/2003 | -0.83 | -0.37 |
| 4/12/2003 | -0.83 | -0.42 |
| 5/12/2003 | -0.82 | -0.38 |
| 6/12/2003 | -0.83 | -0.39 |
| 7/12/2003 | -0.79 | -0.39 |
| 8/12/2003 | -0.78 | -0.30 |
| 9/12/2003 | -0.72 | -0.20 |
| 10/12/2003 | -0.73 | -0.20 |
| 11/12/2003 | -0.68 | -0.22 |
| 12/12/2003 | -0.65 | -0.28 |
| 1/12/2004 | -0.53 | -0.26 |
| 2/12/2004 | -0.47 | -0.21 |
| 3/12/2004 | -0.44 | -0.23 |
| 4/12/2004 | -0.45 | -0.20 |
| 5/12/2004 | -0.43 | -0.18 |
| 6/12/2004 | -0.43 | -0.18 |
| 7/12/2004 | -0.43 | -0.19 |
| 8/12/2004 | -0.46 | -0.25 |
| 9/12/2004 | -0.46 | -0.32 |
| 10/12/2004 | -0.42 | -0.37 |
| 11/12/2004 | -0.41 | -0.41 |
| 12/12/2004 | -0.38 | -0.38 |
| 1/12/2005 | -0.37 | -0.31 |
| 2/12/2005 | -0.35 | -0.38 |
| 3/12/2005 | -0.33 | -0.20 |
| 4/12/2005 | -0.24 | -0.16 |
| 5/12/2005 | -0.23 | -0.20 |
| 6/12/2005 | -0.18 | -0.22 |
| 7/12/2005 | -0.13 | -0.24 |
| 8/12/2005 | -0.05 | -0.27 |
| 9/12/2005 | 0.02 | -0.24 |
| 10/12/2005 | 0.04 | -0.24 |
| 11/12/2005 | 0.06 | -0.18 |
| 12/12/2005 | 0.04 | -0.18 |
| 1/12/2006 | 0.03 | -0.23 |
| 2/12/2006 | 0.02 | -0.17 |
| 3/12/2006 | 0.07 | -0.29 |
| 4/12/2006 | 0.01 | -0.25 |
| 5/12/2006 | 0.08 | -0.17 |
| 6/12/2006 | 0.07 | -0.13 |
| 7/12/2006 | 0.09 | -0.11 |
| 8/12/2006 | 0.07 | -0.07 |
| 9/12/2006 | 0.03 | -0.06 |
| 10/12/2006 | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| 11/12/2006 | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| 12/12/2006 | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| 1/12/2007 | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| 2/12/2007 | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| 3/12/2007 | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| 4/12/2007 | 0.06 | 0.00 |
| 5/12/2007 | 0.01 | -0.09 |
| 6/12/2007 | -0.01 | -0.11 |
| 7/12/2007 | -0.07 | -0.18 |
| 8/12/2007 | -0.11 | -0.25 |
| 9/12/2007 | -0.10 | -0.26 |
| 10/12/2007 | -0.08 | -0.39 |
| 11/12/2007 | -0.08 | -0.57 |
| 12/12/2007 | -0.09 | -0.61 |
| 1/12/2008 | -0.07 | -0.65 |
| 2/12/2008 | -0.07 | -0.70 |
| 3/12/2008 | -0.08 | -0.78 |
| 4/12/2008 | -0.09 | -0.91 |
| 5/12/2008 | -0.12 | -1.06 |
| 6/12/2008 | -0.10 | -1.21 |
| 7/12/2008 | -0.14 | -1.27 |
| 8/12/2008 | -0.13 | -1.35 |
| 9/12/2008 | -0.16 | -1.51 |
| 10/12/2008 | -0.27 | -1.57 |
| 11/12/2008 | -0.31 | -1.47 |
| 12/12/2008 | -0.35 | -1.42 |
| 1/12/2009 | -0.42 | -1.33 |
| 2/12/2009 | -0.48 | -1.22 |
| 3/12/2009 | -0.53 | -1.16 |
| 4/12/2009 | -0.62 | -1.02 |
| 5/12/2009 | -0.72 | -1.00 |
| 6/12/2009 | -0.81 | -0.97 |
| 7/12/2009 | -0.86 | -0.93 |
| 8/12/2009 | -0.89 | -0.90 |
| 9/12/2009 | -0.87 | -0.91 |
| 10/12/2009 | -0.81 | -0.92 |
| 11/12/2009 | -0.82 | -1.10 |
| 12/12/2009 | -0.80 | -1.03 |
| 1/12/2010 | -0.82 | -1.05 |
| 2/12/2010 | -0.84 | -1.14 |
| 3/12/2010 | -0.82 | -1.26 |
| 4/12/2010 | -0.82 | -1.30 |
| 5/12/2010 | -0.76 | -1.31 |
| 6/12/2010 | -0.72 | -1.34 |
| 7/12/2010 | -0.68 | -1.43 |
| 8/12/2010 | -0.66 | -1.58 |
| 9/12/2010 | -0.73 | -1.62 |
| 10/12/2010 | -0.73 | -1.63 |
| 11/12/2010 | -0.73 | -1.54 |
| 12/12/2010 | -0.70 | -1.62 |
| 1/12/2011 | -0.66 | -1.78 |
| 2/12/2011 | -0.58 | -1.80 |
| 3/12/2011 | -0.52 | -1.79 |
| 4/12/2011 | -0.45 | -1.78 |
| 5/12/2011 | -0.47 | -1.69 |
| 6/12/2011 | -0.53 | -1.69 |
| 7/12/2011 | -0.49 | -1.73 |
| 8/12/2011 | -0.59 | -1.60 |
| 9/12/2011 | -0.51 | -1.53 |
| 10/12/2011 | -0.46 | -1.57 |
| 11/12/2011 | -0.43 | -1.61 |
| 12/12/2011 | -0.46 | -1.63 |
| 1/12/2012 | -0.52 | -1.63 |
| 2/12/2012 | -0.58 | -1.63 |
| 3/12/2012 | -0.59 | -1.73 |
| 4/12/2012 | -0.56 | -1.84 |
| 5/12/2012 | -0.51 | -1.87 |
| 6/12/2012 | -0.40 | -1.76 |
| 7/12/2012 | -0.44 | -1.50 |
| 8/12/2012 | -0.29 | -1.40 |
| 9/12/2012 | -0.31 | -1.25 |
| 10/12/2012 | -0.31 | -1.07 |
| 11/12/2012 | -0.29 | -0.97 |
| 12/12/2012 | -0.26 | -0.89 |
| 1/12/2013 | -0.14 | -0.75 |
| 2/12/2013 | -0.07 | -0.71 |
| 3/12/2013 | -0.07 | -0.62 |
| 4/12/2013 | -0.10 | -0.41 |
| 5/12/2013 | -0.05 | -0.28 |
| 6/12/2013 | -0.03 | -0.22 |
| 7/12/2013 | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| 8/12/2013 | -0.03 | -0.26 |
| 9/12/2013 | -0.04 | -0.34 |
| 10/12/2013 | -0.04 | -0.48 |
| 11/12/2013 | -0.02 | -0.39 |
| 12/12/2013 | -0.02 | -0.41 |
| 1/12/2014 | -0.02 | -0.40 |
| 2/12/2014 | 0.01 | -0.46 |
| 3/12/2014 | 0.00 | -0.35 |
| 4/12/2014 | 0.00 | -0.34 |
| 5/12/2014 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
| 6/12/2014 | -0.01 | -0.44 |
| 7/12/2014 | 0.01 | -0.49 |
| 8/12/2014 | -0.01 | -0.39 |
| 9/12/2014 | -0.05 | -0.26 |
| 10/12/2014 | -0.06 | -0.09 |
| 11/12/2014 | -0.11 | -0.18 |
| 12/12/2014 | -0.08 | -0.16 |
| 1/12/2015 | -0.12 | -0.12 |
| 2/12/2015 | -0.19 | 0.00 |
| 3/12/2015 | -0.20 | 0.02 |
| 4/12/2015 | -0.21 | -0.07 |
| 5/12/2015 | -0.22 | 0.05 |
| 6/12/2015 | -0.22 | 0.15 |
| 7/12/2015 | -0.16 | 0.30 |
| 8/12/2015 | -0.10 | 0.32 |
| 9/12/2015 | -0.01 | 0.37 |
| 10/12/2015 | -0.01 | 0.49 |
| 11/12/2015 | 0.05 | 0.60 |
| 12/12/2015 | 0.05 | 0.65 |
| 1/12/2016 | 0.08 | 0.62 |
| 2/12/2016 | 0.11 | 0.68 |
| 3/12/2016 | 0.11 | 0.75 |
| 4/12/2016 | 0.16 | 0.82 |
| 5/12/2016 | 0.16 | 0.85 |
| 6/12/2016 | 0.14 | 0.88 |
| 7/12/2016 | 0.10 | 1.05 |
| 8/12/2016 | 0.07 | 1.08 |
| 9/12/2016 | 0.00 | 1.08 |
| 10/12/2016 | 0.03 | 1.13 |
| 11/12/2016 | -0.02 | 1.22 |
| 12/12/2016 | -0.05 | 1.25 |
| 1/12/2017 | -0.07 | 1.41 |
| 2/12/2017 | -0.02 | 1.39 |
| 3/12/2017 | 0.00 | 1.47 |
| 4/12/2017 | 0.01 | 1.61 |
| 5/12/2017 | 0.04 | 1.68 |
| 6/12/2017 | 0.07 | 1.75 |
| 7/12/2017 | 0.06 | 1.58 |
Source: Author's calculations based on CPS data. The left-hand panel includes those with graduate or professional degrees and anyone who enrolled in college or received an Associate's degree.
Chart 3: Prime-Age LFPR by Metropolitan Status
Percent
| Date | Non-Metro | Smaller MSAs (100K-500K) | Larger MSAs (500K+) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1/12/1996 | 82.9 | 83.4 | 83.7 |
| 2/12/1996 | 82.9 | 83.4 | 83.8 |
| 3/12/1996 | 82.9 | 83.4 | 83.8 |
| 4/12/1996 | 83.0 | 83.4 | 83.9 |
| 5/12/1996 | 83.0 | 83.4 | 84.0 |
| 6/12/1996 | 83.0 | 83.5 | 84.1 |
| 7/12/1996 | 83.0 | 83.6 | 84.1 |
| 8/12/1996 | 83.0 | 83.6 | 84.2 |
| 9/12/1996 | 83.0 | 83.6 | 84.2 |
| 10/12/1996 | 83.1 | 83.6 | 84.3 |
| 11/12/1996 | 83.2 | 83.6 | 84.3 |
| 12/12/1996 | 83.3 | 83.6 | 84.3 |
| 1/12/1997 | 83.4 | 83.6 | 84.3 |
| 2/12/1997 | 83.5 | 83.6 | 84.3 |
| 3/12/1997 | 83.5 | 83.7 | 84.3 |
| 4/12/1997 | 83.6 | 83.8 | 84.4 |
| 5/12/1997 | 83.6 | 83.8 | 84.4 |
| 6/12/1997 | 83.6 | 83.9 | 84.3 |
| 7/12/1997 | 83.6 | 83.8 | 84.4 |
| 8/12/1997 | 83.6 | 83.9 | 84.4 |
| 9/12/1997 | 83.6 | 83.9 | 84.4 |
| 10/12/1997 | 83.5 | 83.9 | 84.4 |
| 11/12/1997 | 83.5 | 83.9 | 84.5 |
| 12/12/1997 | 83.4 | 83.8 | 84.5 |
| 1/12/1998 | 83.4 | 83.8 | 84.5 |
| 2/12/1998 | 83.4 | 83.9 | 84.5 |
| 3/12/1998 | 83.3 | 83.9 | 84.5 |
| 4/12/1998 | 83.3 | 83.9 | 84.5 |
| 5/12/1998 | 83.4 | 84.0 | 84.5 |
| 6/12/1998 | 83.5 | 83.9 | 84.5 |
| 7/12/1998 | 83.5 | 83.9 | 84.5 |
| 8/12/1998 | 83.6 | 83.9 | 84.5 |
| 9/12/1998 | 83.6 | 84.0 | 84.5 |
| 10/12/1998 | 83.7 | 84.0 | 84.5 |
| 11/12/1998 | 83.6 | 84.0 | 84.5 |
| 12/12/1998 | 83.6 | 84.0 | 84.5 |
| 1/12/1999 | 83.6 | 84.0 | 84.5 |
| 2/12/1999 | 83.5 | 84.0 | 84.4 |
| 3/12/1999 | 83.5 | 84.0 | 84.4 |
| 4/12/1999 | 83.4 | 83.9 | 84.4 |
| 5/12/1999 | 83.3 | 83.8 | 84.4 |
| 6/12/1999 | 83.2 | 83.8 | 84.4 |
| 7/12/1999 | 83.1 | 83.8 | 84.4 |
| 8/12/1999 | 83.1 | 83.8 | 84.4 |
| 9/12/1999 | 83.2 | 83.8 | 84.4 |
| 10/12/1999 | 83.2 | 83.9 | 84.5 |
| 11/12/1999 | 83.2 | 83.9 | 84.5 |
| 12/12/1999 | 83.2 | 83.9 | 84.5 |
| 1/12/2000 | 83.2 | 83.9 | 84.5 |
| 2/12/2000 | 83.2 | 83.9 | 84.5 |
| 3/12/2000 | 83.2 | 83.8 | 84.4 |
| 4/12/2000 | 83.2 | 83.8 | 84.4 |
| 5/12/2000 | 83.1 | 83.8 | 84.4 |
| 6/12/2000 | 83.0 | 83.7 | 84.4 |
| 7/12/2000 | 83.0 | 83.7 | 84.4 |
| 8/12/2000 | 83.1 | 83.7 | 84.3 |
| 9/12/2000 | 83.2 | 83.6 | 84.3 |
| 10/12/2000 | 83.2 | 83.5 | 84.3 |
| 11/12/2000 | 83.2 | 83.4 | 84.2 |
| 12/12/2000 | 83.1 | 83.4 | 84.2 |
| 1/12/2001 | 83.0 | 83.3 | 84.2 |
| 2/12/2001 | 82.9 | 83.3 | 84.2 |
| 3/12/2001 | 82.9 | 83.3 | 84.2 |
| 4/12/2001 | 82.9 | 83.2 | 84.1 |
| 5/12/2001 | 82.9 | 83.2 | 84.1 |
| 6/12/2001 | 82.9 | 83.2 | 84.1 |
| 7/12/2001 | 82.9 | 83.2 | 84.0 |
| 8/12/2001 | 82.8 | 83.2 | 83.9 |
| 9/12/2001 | 82.7 | 83.3 | 83.9 |
| 10/12/2001 | 82.6 | 83.3 | 83.8 |
| 11/12/2001 | 82.7 | 83.4 | 83.8 |
| 12/12/2001 | 82.7 | 83.4 | 83.8 |
| 1/12/2002 | 82.8 | 83.4 | 83.7 |
| 2/12/2002 | 82.8 | 83.4 | 83.7 |
| 3/12/2002 | 82.8 | 83.4 | 83.6 |
| 4/12/2002 | 82.7 | 83.5 | 83.6 |
| 5/12/2002 | 82.7 | 83.5 | 83.6 |
| 6/12/2002 | 82.7 | 83.5 | 83.5 |
| 7/12/2002 | 82.7 | 83.5 | 83.5 |
| 8/12/2002 | 82.6 | 83.4 | 83.5 |
| 9/12/2002 | 82.5 | 83.2 | 83.4 |
| 10/12/2002 | 82.5 | 83.2 | 83.4 |
| 11/12/2002 | 82.3 | 83.2 | 83.4 |
| 12/12/2002 | 82.2 | 83.2 | 83.4 |
| 1/12/2003 | 82.2 | 83.2 | 83.4 |
| 2/12/2003 | 82.1 | 83.1 | 83.4 |
| 3/12/2003 | 82.1 | 83.1 | 83.4 |
| 4/12/2003 | 82.1 | 83.0 | 83.3 |
| 5/12/2003 | 82.1 | 82.9 | 83.3 |
| 6/12/2003 | 82.1 | 82.9 | 83.2 |
| 7/12/2003 | 82.1 | 82.9 | 83.2 |
| 8/12/2003 | 82.1 | 82.9 | 83.2 |
| 9/12/2003 | 82.1 | 82.9 | 83.1 |
| 10/12/2003 | 82.0 | 82.8 | 83.1 |
| 11/12/2003 | 82.1 | 82.8 | 83.0 |
| 12/12/2003 | 82.1 | 82.8 | 83.0 |
| 1/12/2004 | 82.1 | 82.7 | 83.0 |
| 2/12/2004 | 82.2 | 82.7 | 83.0 |
| 3/12/2004 | 82.2 | 82.8 | 82.9 |
| 4/12/2004 | 82.2 | 82.8 | 83.0 |
| 5/12/2004 | 82.2 | 82.8 | 83.0 |
| 6/12/2004 | 82.2 | 82.8 | 83.0 |
| 7/12/2004 | 82.1 | 82.7 | 83.0 |
| 8/12/2004 | 82.1 | 82.7 | 82.9 |
| 9/12/2004 | 82.1 | 82.8 | 82.9 |
| 10/12/2004 | 82.1 | 82.8 | 82.9 |
| 11/12/2004 | 82.1 | 82.8 | 82.8 |
| 12/12/2004 | 82.2 | 82.9 | 82.8 |
| 1/12/2005 | 82.2 | 82.9 | 82.8 |
| 2/12/2005 | 82.2 | 82.9 | 82.8 |
| 3/12/2005 | 82.3 | 82.9 | 82.8 |
| 4/12/2005 | 82.4 | 82.9 | 82.8 |
| 5/12/2005 | 82.4 | 82.9 | 82.8 |
| 6/12/2005 | 82.4 | 82.9 | 82.8 |
| 7/12/2005 | 82.4 | 83.0 | 82.8 |
| 8/12/2005 | 82.3 | 83.1 | 82.8 |
| 9/12/2005 | 82.2 | 83.1 | 82.8 |
| 10/12/2005 | 82.2 | 83.2 | 82.9 |
| 11/12/2005 | 82.1 | 83.2 | 82.9 |
| 12/12/2005 | 82.0 | 83.2 | 82.9 |
| 1/12/2006 | 82.0 | 83.3 | 82.9 |
| 2/12/2006 | 81.9 | 83.3 | 82.9 |
| 3/12/2006 | 81.9 | 83.4 | 82.9 |
| 4/12/2006 | 81.8 | 83.4 | 82.9 |
| 5/12/2006 | 81.7 | 83.5 | 83.0 |
| 6/12/2006 | 81.7 | 83.4 | 83.0 |
| 7/12/2006 | 81.7 | 83.5 | 83.0 |
| 8/12/2006 | 81.8 | 83.5 | 83.1 |
| 9/12/2006 | 81.9 | 83.5 | 83.1 |
| 10/12/2006 | 82.0 | 83.5 | 83.1 |
| 11/12/2006 | 82.0 | 83.5 | 83.1 |
| 12/12/2006 | 82.0 | 83.5 | 83.1 |
| 1/12/2007 | 82.0 | 83.5 | 83.1 |
| 2/12/2007 | 81.9 | 83.4 | 83.1 |
| 3/12/2007 | 82.0 | 83.3 | 83.2 |
| 4/12/2007 | 82.0 | 83.3 | 83.2 |
| 5/12/2007 | 82.0 | 83.3 | 83.1 |
| 6/12/2007 | 82.1 | 83.3 | 83.1 |
| 7/12/2007 | 82.1 | 83.2 | 83.2 |
| 8/12/2007 | 82.1 | 83.1 | 83.2 |
| 9/12/2007 | 82.1 | 82.9 | 83.2 |
| 10/12/2007 | 82.2 | 82.8 | 83.3 |
| 11/12/2007 | 82.2 | 82.7 | 83.3 |
| 12/12/2007 | 82.1 | 82.6 | 83.4 |
| 1/12/2008 | 82.0 | 82.5 | 83.5 |
| 2/12/2008 | 81.9 | 82.6 | 83.5 |
| 3/12/2008 | 81.9 | 82.6 | 83.6 |
| 4/12/2008 | 81.8 | 82.6 | 83.6 |
| 5/12/2008 | 81.8 | 82.5 | 83.6 |
| 6/12/2008 | 81.8 | 82.5 | 83.6 |
| 7/12/2008 | 81.7 | 82.5 | 83.6 |
| 8/12/2008 | 81.7 | 82.5 | 83.6 |
| 9/12/2008 | 81.6 | 82.5 | 83.6 |
| 10/12/2008 | 81.5 | 82.5 | 83.5 |
| 11/12/2008 | 81.4 | 82.5 | 83.5 |
| 12/12/2008 | 81.4 | 82.4 | 83.5 |
| 1/12/2009 | 81.4 | 82.4 | 83.4 |
| 2/12/2009 | 81.3 | 82.3 | 83.4 |
| 3/12/2009 | 81.3 | 82.2 | 83.3 |
| 4/12/2009 | 81.2 | 82.1 | 83.3 |
| 5/12/2009 | 81.1 | 82.0 | 83.2 |
| 6/12/2009 | 81.0 | 81.9 | 83.2 |
| 7/12/2009 | 80.9 | 81.8 | 83.1 |
| 8/12/2009 | 80.8 | 81.8 | 83.1 |
| 9/12/2009 | 80.6 | 81.8 | 83.1 |
| 10/12/2009 | 80.6 | 81.8 | 83.1 |
| 11/12/2009 | 80.7 | 81.9 | 83.0 |
| 12/12/2009 | 80.7 | 81.8 | 83.0 |
| 1/12/2010 | 80.7 | 81.8 | 82.9 |
| 2/12/2010 | 80.7 | 81.8 | 82.8 |
| 3/12/2010 | 80.6 | 81.8 | 82.7 |
| 4/12/2010 | 80.6 | 81.9 | 82.7 |
| 5/12/2010 | 80.6 | 81.9 | 82.7 |
| 6/12/2010 | 80.5 | 81.9 | 82.6 |
| 7/12/2010 | 80.6 | 81.9 | 82.6 |
| 8/12/2010 | 80.6 | 81.9 | 82.5 |
| 9/12/2010 | 80.6 | 81.9 | 82.5 |
| 10/12/2010 | 80.6 | 81.8 | 82.4 |
| 11/12/2010 | 80.5 | 81.8 | 82.3 |
| 12/12/2010 | 80.4 | 81.8 | 82.3 |
| 1/12/2011 | 80.2 | 81.8 | 82.2 |
| 2/12/2011 | 80.2 | 81.8 | 82.2 |
| 3/12/2011 | 80.1 | 81.7 | 82.2 |
| 4/12/2011 | 80.0 | 81.7 | 82.1 |
| 5/12/2011 | 79.9 | 81.6 | 82.1 |
| 6/12/2011 | 79.8 | 81.6 | 82.1 |
| 7/12/2011 | 79.8 | 81.6 | 82.0 |
| 8/12/2011 | 79.7 | 81.5 | 82.0 |
| 9/12/2011 | 79.7 | 81.6 | 82.0 |
| 10/12/2011 | 79.6 | 81.5 | 82.0 |
| 11/12/2011 | 79.5 | 81.5 | 82.0 |
| 12/12/2011 | 79.5 | 81.4 | 82.0 |
| 1/12/2012 | 79.5 | 81.5 | 82.0 |
| 2/12/2012 | 79.5 | 81.4 | 82.0 |
| 3/12/2012 | 79.5 | 81.4 | 82.0 |
| 4/12/2012 | 79.5 | 81.4 | 82.0 |
| 5/12/2012 | 79.6 | 81.4 | 82.0 |
| 6/12/2012 | 79.6 | 81.4 | 82.0 |
| 7/12/2012 | 79.5 | 81.3 | 82.0 |
| 8/12/2012 | 79.3 | 81.2 | 82.0 |
| 9/12/2012 | 79.2 | 81.0 | 82.0 |
| 10/12/2012 | 79.1 | 81.0 | 81.9 |
| 11/12/2012 | 79.1 | 81.0 | 81.9 |
| 12/12/2012 | 79.0 | 81.0 | 81.9 |
| 1/12/2013 | 79.0 | 81.0 | 81.9 |
| 2/12/2013 | 79.0 | 80.9 | 81.9 |
| 3/12/2013 | 78.8 | 80.8 | 81.9 |
| 4/12/2013 | 78.8 | 80.7 | 81.9 |
| 5/12/2013 | 78.8 | 80.6 | 81.8 |
| 6/12/2013 | 78.8 | 80.5 | 81.8 |
| 7/12/2013 | 78.8 | 80.5 | 81.7 |
| 8/12/2013 | 78.9 | 80.5 | 81.7 |
| 9/12/2013 | 78.9 | 80.6 | 81.7 |
| 10/12/2013 | 79.0 | 80.6 | 81.6 |
| 11/12/2013 | 79.0 | 80.6 | 81.6 |
| 12/12/2013 | 79.1 | 80.5 | 81.6 |
| 1/12/2014 | 79.0 | 80.4 | 81.5 |
| 2/12/2014 | 78.9 | 80.4 | 81.5 |
| 3/12/2014 | 78.9 | 80.4 | 81.5 |
| 4/12/2014 | 78.8 | 80.4 | 81.5 |
| 5/12/2014 | 78.6 | 80.4 | 81.5 |
| 6/12/2014 | 78.5 | 80.5 | 81.5 |
| 7/12/2014 | 78.6 | 80.5 | 81.5 |
| 8/12/2014 | 78.6 | 80.5 | 81.5 |
| 9/12/2014 | 78.6 | 80.5 | 81.5 |
| 10/12/2014 | 78.6 | 80.4 | 81.5 |
| 11/12/2014 | 78.5 | 80.4 | 81.6 |
| 12/12/2014 | 78.5 | 80.3 | 81.6 |
| 1/12/2015 | 78.5 | 80.3 | 81.6 |
| 2/12/2015 | 78.5 | 80.3 | 81.6 |
| 3/12/2015 | 78.5 | 80.2 | 81.6 |
| 4/12/2015 | 78.6 | 80.3 | 81.5 |
| 5/12/2015 | 78.6 | 80.3 | 81.5 |
| 6/12/2015 | 78.6 | 80.4 | 81.5 |
| 7/12/2015 | 78.5 | 80.4 | 81.6 |
| 8/12/2015 | 78.5 | 80.4 | 81.6 |
| 9/12/2015 | 78.4 | 80.5 | 81.6 |
| 10/12/2015 | 78.5 | 80.6 | 81.7 |
| 11/12/2015 | 78.5 | 80.7 | 81.7 |
| 12/12/2015 | 78.5 | 80.8 | 81.6 |
| 1/12/2016 | 78.7 | 80.8 | 81.7 |
| 2/12/2016 | 78.7 | 80.9 | 81.7 |
| 3/12/2016 | 78.8 | 81.0 | 81.7 |
| 4/12/2016 | 78.9 | 81.1 | 81.8 |
| 5/12/2016 | 79.0 | 81.1 | 81.9 |
| 6/12/2016 | 79.0 | 81.0 | 81.9 |
| 7/12/2016 | 79.1 | 81.0 | 81.9 |
| 8/12/2016 | 79.1 | 80.9 | 82.0 |
| 9/12/2016 | 79.1 | 80.9 | 82.0 |
| 10/12/2016 | 79.1 | 80.9 | 82.1 |
| 11/12/2016 | 79.0 | 80.9 | 82.1 |
| 12/12/2016 | 79.0 | 80.9 | 82.2 |
| 1/12/2017 | 78.9 | 81.0 | 82.2 |
| 2/12/2017 | 78.9 | 81.0 | 82.3 |
| 3/12/2017 | 78.9 | 81.0 | 82.3 |
| 4/12/2017 | 78.8 | 81.0 | 82.3 |
| 5/12/2017 | 78.7 | 80.9 | 82.3 |
| 6/12/2017 | 78.6 | 81.0 | 82.3 |
| 7/12/2017 | 78.6 | 81.1 | 82.4 |
Source: Author's calculations from CPS data. 12-month centered moving averages. Historical CPS data reveal that the current difference in LFPR between metropolitan and non-metropolitan area participation rates is the largest in the series' forty-year history.
Chart 4: LFPR Gap (Metropolitan Minus Non-Metro LFPR) by Education
Percentage points
| Date | At Least Some College | High School Diploma or Less |
|---|---|---|
| 1/12/1996 | -0.01 | -1.09 |
| 2/12/1996 | -0.06 | -1.09 |
| 3/12/1996 | -0.10 | -1.00 |
| 4/12/1996 | -0.10 | -0.96 |
| 5/12/1996 | -0.09 | -0.90 |
| 6/12/1996 | -0.09 | -0.80 |
| 7/12/1996 | -0.05 | -0.74 |
| 8/12/1996 | 0.00 | -0.61 |
| 9/12/1996 | -0.07 | -0.54 |
| 10/12/1996 | -0.13 | -0.52 |
| 11/12/1996 | -0.22 | -0.53 |
| 12/12/1996 | -0.39 | -0.57 |
| 1/12/1997 | -0.55 | -0.58 |
| 2/12/1997 | -0.63 | -0.57 |
| 3/12/1997 | -0.71 | -0.50 |
| 4/12/1997 | -0.79 | -0.47 |
| 5/12/1997 | -0.77 | -0.47 |
| 6/12/1997 | -0.76 | -0.51 |
| 7/12/1997 | -0.78 | -0.52 |
| 8/12/1997 | -0.72 | -0.55 |
| 9/12/1997 | -0.60 | -0.48 |
| 10/12/1997 | -0.51 | -0.38 |
| 11/12/1997 | -0.42 | -0.34 |
| 12/12/1997 | -0.24 | -0.28 |
| 1/12/1998 | -0.07 | -0.28 |
| 2/12/1998 | -0.02 | -0.32 |
| 3/12/1998 | -0.03 | -0.32 |
| 4/12/1998 | -0.11 | -0.31 |
| 5/12/1998 | -0.22 | -0.32 |
| 6/12/1998 | -0.33 | -0.39 |
| 7/12/1998 | -0.39 | -0.44 |
| 8/12/1998 | -0.51 | -0.38 |
| 9/12/1998 | -0.54 | -0.41 |
| 10/12/1998 | -0.60 | -0.49 |
| 11/12/1998 | -0.59 | -0.38 |
| 12/12/1998 | -0.61 | -0.29 |
| 1/12/1999 | -0.64 | -0.22 |
| 2/12/1999 | -0.72 | -0.02 |
| 3/12/1999 | -0.72 | 0.02 |
| 4/12/1999 | -0.68 | 0.12 |
| 5/12/1999 | -0.69 | 0.22 |
| 6/12/1999 | -0.66 | 0.41 |
| 7/12/1999 | -0.64 | 0.59 |
| 8/12/1999 | -0.63 | 0.61 |
| 9/12/1999 | -0.67 | 0.63 |
| 10/12/1999 | -0.68 | 0.66 |
| 11/12/1999 | -0.72 | 0.65 |
| 12/12/1999 | -0.72 | 0.60 |
| 1/12/2000 | -0.74 | 0.63 |
| 2/12/2000 | -0.64 | 0.57 |
| 3/12/2000 | -0.59 | 0.48 |
| 4/12/2000 | -0.55 | 0.45 |
| 5/12/2000 | -0.47 | 0.50 |
| 6/12/2000 | -0.46 | 0.53 |
| 7/12/2000 | -0.44 | 0.49 |
| 8/12/2000 | -0.49 | 0.40 |
| 9/12/2000 | -0.57 | 0.29 |
| 10/12/2000 | -0.66 | 0.24 |
| 11/12/2000 | -0.72 | 0.26 |
| 12/12/2000 | -0.78 | 0.39 |
| 1/12/2001 | -0.74 | 0.45 |
| 2/12/2001 | -0.76 | 0.57 |
| 3/12/2001 | -0.77 | 0.66 |
| 4/12/2001 | -0.73 | 0.62 |
| 5/12/2001 | -0.78 | 0.61 |
| 6/12/2001 | -0.83 | 0.54 |
| 7/12/2001 | -0.91 | 0.54 |
| 8/12/2001 | -0.92 | 0.55 |
| 9/12/2001 | -0.81 | 0.53 |
| 10/12/2001 | -0.68 | 0.45 |
| 11/12/2001 | -0.62 | 0.28 |
| 12/12/2001 | -0.59 | 0.12 |
| 1/12/2002 | -0.63 | -0.02 |
| 2/12/2002 | -0.59 | -0.17 |
| 3/12/2002 | -0.53 | -0.23 |
| 4/12/2002 | -0.48 | -0.23 |
| 5/12/2002 | -0.42 | -0.28 |
| 6/12/2002 | -0.39 | -0.38 |
| 7/12/2002 | -0.30 | -0.50 |
| 8/12/2002 | -0.23 | -0.48 |
| 9/12/2002 | -0.29 | -0.32 |
| 10/12/2002 | -0.38 | -0.20 |
| 11/12/2002 | -0.35 | 0.05 |
| 12/12/2002 | -0.31 | 0.16 |
| 1/12/2003 | -0.26 | 0.29 |
| 2/12/2003 | -0.19 | 0.33 |
| 3/12/2003 | -0.18 | 0.31 |
| 4/12/2003 | -0.17 | 0.21 |
| 5/12/2003 | -0.21 | 0.08 |
| 6/12/2003 | -0.24 | 0.09 |
| 7/12/2003 | -0.31 | 0.12 |
| 8/12/2003 | -0.36 | 0.18 |
| 9/12/2003 | -0.42 | 0.14 |
| 10/12/2003 | -0.44 | 0.18 |
| 11/12/2003 | -0.53 | 0.00 |
| 12/12/2003 | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| 1/12/2004 | -0.69 | -0.05 |
| 2/12/2004 | -0.79 | -0.02 |
| 3/12/2004 | -0.87 | 0.01 |
| 4/12/2004 | -0.93 | 0.08 |
| 5/12/2004 | -1.00 | 0.16 |
| 6/12/2004 | -0.93 | 0.18 |
| 7/12/2004 | -0.88 | 0.12 |
| 8/12/2004 | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| 9/12/2004 | -0.77 | -0.02 |
| 10/12/2004 | -0.76 | -0.11 |
| 11/12/2004 | -0.78 | -0.13 |
| 12/12/2004 | -0.85 | -0.17 |
| 1/12/2005 | -0.86 | -0.24 |
| 2/12/2005 | -0.92 | -0.32 |
| 3/12/2005 | -0.89 | -0.41 |
| 4/12/2005 | -0.93 | -0.54 |
| 5/12/2005 | -0.88 | -0.62 |
| 6/12/2005 | -0.92 | -0.56 |
| 7/12/2005 | -1.01 | -0.39 |
| 8/12/2005 | -1.02 | -0.22 |
| 9/12/2005 | -1.01 | -0.06 |
| 10/12/2005 | -0.97 | 0.13 |
| 11/12/2005 | -0.86 | 0.26 |
| 12/12/2005 | -0.72 | 0.26 |
| 1/12/2006 | -0.61 | 0.31 |
| 2/12/2006 | -0.53 | 0.31 |
| 3/12/2006 | -0.48 | 0.35 |
| 4/12/2006 | -0.42 | 0.49 |
| 5/12/2006 | -0.36 | 0.64 |
| 6/12/2006 | -0.28 | 0.69 |
| 7/12/2006 | -0.24 | 0.71 |
| 8/12/2006 | -0.32 | 0.71 |
| 9/12/2006 | -0.41 | 0.60 |
| 10/12/2006 | -0.47 | 0.54 |
| 11/12/2006 | -0.53 | 0.58 |
| 12/12/2006 | -0.60 | 0.67 |
| 1/12/2007 | -0.68 | 0.70 |
| 2/12/2007 | -0.75 | 0.76 |
| 3/12/2007 | -0.81 | 0.76 |
| 4/12/2007 | -0.81 | 0.71 |
| 5/12/2007 | -0.85 | 0.61 |
| 6/12/2007 | -0.87 | 0.58 |
| 7/12/2007 | -0.86 | 0.54 |
| 8/12/2007 | -0.91 | 0.46 |
| 9/12/2007 | -0.88 | 0.47 |
| 10/12/2007 | -0.84 | 0.48 |
| 11/12/2007 | -0.79 | 0.50 |
| 12/12/2007 | -0.63 | 0.53 |
| 1/12/2008 | -0.51 | 0.64 |
| 2/12/2008 | -0.36 | 0.74 |
| 3/12/2008 | -0.28 | 0.86 |
| 4/12/2008 | -0.27 | 1.00 |
| 5/12/2008 | -0.25 | 1.08 |
| 6/12/2008 | -0.27 | 1.09 |
| 7/12/2008 | -0.18 | 1.07 |
| 8/12/2008 | -0.07 | 1.03 |
| 9/12/2008 | -0.01 | 1.05 |
| 10/12/2008 | 0.14 | 1.09 |
| 11/12/2008 | 0.23 | 1.06 |
| 12/12/2008 | 0.20 | 1.08 |
| 1/12/2009 | 0.15 | 1.09 |
| 2/12/2009 | 0.13 | 1.05 |
| 3/12/2009 | 0.06 | 1.07 |
| 4/12/2009 | 0.05 | 1.12 |
| 5/12/2009 | 0.04 | 1.22 |
| 6/12/2009 | 0.04 | 1.29 |
| 7/12/2009 | 0.02 | 1.45 |
| 8/12/2009 | 0.07 | 1.61 |
| 9/12/2009 | 0.14 | 1.76 |
| 10/12/2009 | 0.04 | 1.80 |
| 11/12/2009 | -0.07 | 1.77 |
| 12/12/2009 | -0.21 | 1.70 |
| 1/12/2010 | -0.26 | 1.65 |
| 2/12/2010 | -0.32 | 1.63 |
| 3/12/2010 | -0.34 | 1.66 |
| 4/12/2010 | -0.37 | 1.65 |
| 5/12/2010 | -0.39 | 1.67 |
| 6/12/2010 | -0.37 | 1.71 |
| 7/12/2010 | -0.35 | 1.62 |
| 8/12/2010 | -0.44 | 1.60 |
| 9/12/2010 | -0.55 | 1.54 |
| 10/12/2010 | -0.54 | 1.47 |
| 11/12/2010 | -0.54 | 1.51 |
| 12/12/2010 | -0.41 | 1.45 |
| 1/12/2011 | -0.25 | 1.51 |
| 2/12/2011 | -0.17 | 1.51 |
| 3/12/2011 | 0.03 | 1.40 |
| 4/12/2011 | 0.17 | 1.32 |
| 5/12/2011 | 0.29 | 1.24 |
| 6/12/2011 | 0.42 | 1.17 |
| 7/12/2011 | 0.46 | 1.21 |
| 8/12/2011 | 0.55 | 1.18 |
| 9/12/2011 | 0.63 | 1.14 |
| 10/12/2011 | 0.66 | 1.21 |
| 11/12/2011 | 0.75 | 1.28 |
| 12/12/2011 | 0.78 | 1.35 |
| 1/12/2012 | 0.72 | 1.37 |
| 2/12/2012 | 0.70 | 1.41 |
| 3/12/2012 | 0.65 | 1.44 |
| 4/12/2012 | 0.49 | 1.52 |
| 5/12/2012 | 0.44 | 1.58 |
| 6/12/2012 | 0.38 | 1.60 |
| 7/12/2012 | 0.48 | 1.69 |
| 8/12/2012 | 0.60 | 1.74 |
| 9/12/2012 | 0.73 | 1.81 |
| 10/12/2012 | 0.72 | 1.83 |
| 11/12/2012 | 0.69 | 1.96 |
| 12/12/2012 | 0.66 | 2.12 |
| 1/12/2013 | 0.63 | 2.18 |
| 2/12/2013 | 0.59 | 2.28 |
| 3/12/2013 | 0.57 | 2.47 |
| 4/12/2013 | 0.64 | 2.47 |
| 5/12/2013 | 0.55 | 2.31 |
| 6/12/2013 | 0.49 | 2.24 |
| 7/12/2013 | 0.38 | 2.14 |
| 8/12/2013 | 0.33 | 2.06 |
| 9/12/2013 | 0.33 | 1.96 |
| 10/12/2013 | 0.30 | 1.94 |
| 11/12/2013 | 0.30 | 1.79 |
| 12/12/2013 | 0.24 | 1.61 |
| 1/12/2014 | 0.30 | 1.60 |
| 2/12/2014 | 0.34 | 1.60 |
| 3/12/2014 | 0.37 | 1.57 |
| 4/12/2014 | 0.50 | 1.68 |
| 5/12/2014 | 0.63 | 1.91 |
| 6/12/2014 | 0.73 | 2.06 |
| 7/12/2014 | 0.70 | 2.05 |
| 8/12/2014 | 0.64 | 2.04 |
| 9/12/2014 | 0.48 | 2.07 |
| 10/12/2014 | 0.49 | 2.19 |
| 11/12/2014 | 0.53 | 2.30 |
| 12/12/2014 | 0.59 | 2.33 |
| 1/12/2015 | 0.57 | 2.30 |
| 2/12/2015 | 0.57 | 2.21 |
| 3/12/2015 | 0.52 | 2.18 |
| 4/12/2015 | 0.43 | 2.09 |
| 5/12/2015 | 0.49 | 1.97 |
| 6/12/2015 | 0.53 | 1.95 |
| 7/12/2015 | 0.68 | 2.06 |
| 8/12/2015 | 0.75 | 2.21 |
| 9/12/2015 | 0.81 | 2.29 |
| 10/12/2015 | 0.95 | 2.16 |
| 11/12/2015 | 0.91 | 2.07 |
| 12/12/2015 | 0.86 | 2.06 |
| 1/12/2016 | 0.82 | 1.89 |
| 2/12/2016 | 0.78 | 1.86 |
| 3/12/2016 | 0.79 | 1.86 |
| 4/12/2016 | 0.79 | 1.91 |
| 5/12/2016 | 0.75 | 1.90 |
| 6/12/2016 | 0.64 | 1.92 |
| 7/12/2016 | 0.50 | 1.95 |
| 8/12/2016 | 0.49 | 2.04 |
| 9/12/2016 | 0.55 | 2.18 |
| 10/12/2016 | 0.52 | 2.29 |
| 11/12/2016 | 0.67 | 2.39 |
| 12/12/2016 | 0.67 | 2.56 |
| 1/12/2017 | 0.68 | 2.85 |
| 2/12/2017 | 0.72 | 3.04 |
| 3/12/2017 | 0.75 | 3.11 |
| 4/12/2017 | 0.82 | 3.16 |
| 5/12/2017 | 0.81 | 3.37 |
| 6/12/2017 | 0.89 | 3.49 |
| 7/12/2017 | 0.95 | 3.55 |
Source: Author's calculations based on CPS data.
Chart 5: Growth of Nominal Wages, by Skill and Metropolitan Status
| Year | Low Skill, MSA | Low Skill, Non-metro | High Skill, MSA | High Skill, Non-metro |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.1% |
| 2008 | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.1% |
| 2009 | 7.8% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 10.6% |
| 2010 | 9.1% | 11.3% | 12.8% | 12.8% |
| 2011 | 10.6% | 13.5% | 15.0% | 15.5% |
| 2012 | 11.2% | 14.9% | 16.6% | 17.6% |
| 2013 | 12.3% | 16.5% | 18.7% | 19.7% |
| 2014 | 14.0% | 19.0% | 20.8% | 21.7% |
| 2015 | 16.3% | 21.7% | 23.3% | 23.0% |
| 2016 | 19.5% | 24.6% | 26.0% | 25.5% |
Source: Author's calculations using OES wages, reported annually in May. The results are based on average hourly wage data for MSAs and non-metropolitan areas, which are available for 2006-2016.
Chart 6: Ratio of Metropolitan to Non-Metropolitan Average Wages, by Skill
| Year | Lower-Skill | Higher-Skill |
|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 1.18 | 1.33 |
| 2007 | 1.17 | 1.33 |
| 2008 | 1.16 | 1.33 |
| 2009 | 1.16 | 1.33 |
| 2010 | 1.15 | 1.33 |
| 2011 | 1.15 | 1.32 |
| 2012 | 1.14 | 1.32 |
| 2013 | 1.13 | 1.32 |
| 2014 | 1.13 | 1.32 |
| 2015 | 1.12 | 1.33 |
| 2016 | 1.13 | 1.34 |
Source: Author's calculations based on OES average hourly wage data for metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas.
Chart 7: Time-Varying Effect of Metro Area on Log Hourly Wage of Less-Educated Workers
| Year | Regression estimates | Low CI | High CI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 | 0.00 | -0.02 | 0.01 |
| 1998 | -0.01 | -0.02 | 0.01 |
| 1999 | -0.01 | -0.03 | 0.00 |
| 2000 | -0.01 | -0.03 | 0.00 |
| 2001 | -0.01 | -0.02 | 0.00 |
| 2002 | -0.01 | -0.02 | 0.01 |
| 2003 | -0.01 | -0.02 | 0.01 |
| 2004 | -0.01 | -0.02 | 0.00 |
| 2005 | -0.01 | -0.03 | 0.00 |
| 2006 | -0.01 | -0.02 | 0.00 |
| 2007 | -0.01 | -0.03 | 0.00 |
| 2008 | -0.01 | -0.03 | 0.00 |
| 2009 | -0.02 | -0.03 | 0.00 |
| 2010 | -0.02 | -0.03 | -0.01 |
| 2011 | -0.03 | -0.04 | -0.01 |
| 2012 | -0.03 | -0.04 | -0.02 |
| 2013 | -0.03 | -0.05 | -0.02 |
| 2014 | -0.03 | -0.05 | -0.02 |
| 2015 | -0.03 | -0.05 | -0.02 |
| 2016 | -0.03 | -0.04 | -0.02 |
| 2017 | -0.03 | -0.04 | -0.02 |
Source: Author's calculations from CPS hourly wages. Wage data for all workers are winsorized at the 5% and 95% levels by date; standard errors are clustered by date and metropolitan status. Three-year centered moving averages of regression estimates are shown, along with 95% confidence intervals.
Chart 8: Time-Varying Effect of Metro Area on Log Hourly Wage of More-Educated Workers
| Year | Regression estimates | Low CI | High CI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.02 |
| 1998 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.02 |
| 1999 | 0.01 | -0.01 | 0.02 |
| 2000 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| 2001 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| 2002 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| 2003 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.01 |
| 2004 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.01 |
| 2005 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.01 |
| 2006 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.02 |
| 2007 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.02 |
| 2008 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.02 |
| 2009 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.01 |
| 2010 | -0.01 | -0.02 | 0.01 |
| 2011 | -0.01 | -0.02 | 0.01 |
| 2012 | -0.01 | -0.02 | 0.01 |
| 2013 | -0.01 | -0.02 | 0.00 |
| 2014 | -0.01 | -0.02 | 0.00 |
| 2015 | -0.01 | -0.02 | 0.00 |
| 2016 | -0.01 | -0.02 | 0.00 |
| 2017 | -0.01 | -0.03 | 0.00 |
Source: Author's calculations from CPS hourly wages. Three-year centered moving averages of regression estimates are shown, along with 95% confidence intervals.
Last Update:
September 22, 2017