Longer-Run Neutral Rates in Major Advanced Economies, Accessible Data

Figure 1. Neutral Nominal Interest Rates across Advanced Economies
Date United States Canada Euro Area United Kingdom
1990 3.41995766 4.14798131 3.423444223 3.440962267
1990.5 3.450137864 4.196935162 3.461446434 3.538373864
1991 3.499619676 4.29547326 3.514112141 3.686499827
1991.5 3.575646909 4.40915608 3.601939526 3.878266426
1992 3.650190022 4.518680169 3.656733998 4.034037113
1992.5 3.739228 4.654132613 3.718511369 4.212751492
1993 3.827889441 4.778510259 3.785707178 4.365052595
1993.5 3.883687644 4.863061444 3.81146444 4.459803662
1994 3.909013783 4.888164819 3.799623395 4.491614901
1994.5 3.885181685 4.853655793 3.726791572 4.445400945
1995 3.894876928 4.838404447 3.6593065 4.410324715
1995.5 3.887277841 4.805950748 3.568304005 4.34592391
1996 3.918137305 4.81551789 3.505773348 4.320032623
1996.5 3.959905573 4.861463507 3.443954381 4.300517109
1997 3.979212772 4.897917535 3.370820942 4.262185542
1997.5 3.982633784 4.92546138 3.285084655 4.206321086
1998 3.967868904 4.943621961 3.190272113 4.138278813
1998.5 3.918200541 4.919868987 3.062662354 4.035959765
1999 3.86242149 4.903254336 2.947766331 3.948696743
1999.5 3.790327865 4.849977748 2.835368106 3.860057931
2000 3.697579088 4.765108252 2.715280919 3.762431911
2000.5 3.576486419 4.653646647 2.586851538 3.658103244
2001 3.509995368 4.577422099 2.515172149 3.61203294
2001.5 3.460924455 4.50567071 2.461513885 3.582149463
2002 3.404263891 4.433068488 2.406576034 3.548884611
2002.5 3.32812547 4.345116468 2.348057256 3.499157351
2003 3.251981016 4.259320306 2.292586713 3.434450876
2003.5 3.141958154 4.149880324 2.217085611 3.340290085
2004 3.020561712 4.037411315 2.13988115 3.221024271
2004.5 2.888931795 3.919477989 2.046948988 3.072920163
2005 2.748368585 3.797213676 1.955290248 2.912670189
2005.5 2.567103683 3.631021917 1.817575821 2.702576901
2006 2.373430608 3.442232825 1.666287825 2.486219375
2006.5 2.115168742 3.1988993 1.449775141 2.205103281
2007 1.863407781 2.956989872 1.217637595 1.904699135
2007.5 1.626690288 2.724019415 0.985870749 1.597601408
2008 1.450062731 2.562318504 0.801791583 1.342470683
2008.5 1.443977992 2.568292904 0.778743083 1.271536993
2009 1.543236507 2.701163539 0.853787582 1.309106451
2009.5 1.597062088 2.777434157 0.894516209 1.311674882
2010 1.640668411 2.864371228 0.967685165 1.357394417
2010.5 1.663110504 2.931788598 1.029465942 1.408629008
2011 1.680730429 2.985557273 1.081536075 1.470311047
2011.5 1.70192323 3.039352275 1.141008408 1.561609954
2012 1.757278254 3.112396277 1.233674683 1.673146467
2012.5 1.777396551 3.145931315 1.287064587 1.751052135
2013 1.801683717 3.166802608 1.337190464 1.829811363
2013.5 1.790203943 3.154453969 1.347781726 1.87573867
2014 1.782900082 3.146251922 1.354964353 1.910286774
2014.5 1.7945227 3.138459372 1.388423283 1.960300444
2015 1.835761964 3.15848654 1.442311025 2.037027885
2015.5 1.855089123 3.16632732 1.462490362 2.070784982
2016 1.842575957 3.13993294 1.438009638 2.056411049
2016.5 1.803088952 3.089048242 1.366108013 1.993705998
2017 1.75146048 3.027323233 1.266367945 1.905335829
2017.5 1.736240852 2.99286144 1.181606336 1.839699335
2018 1.779923249 3.019654217 1.150114027 1.818984347
2018.5 1.81944291 3.032965731 1.104230521 1.795933346
2019 1.873623155 3.053376898 1.075856635 1.796132758
2019.5 1.917823761 3.06882047 1.118248798 1.870388491
2020 2.368517961 3.407381653 1.317656243 2.12470514
2020.5 2.469607886 3.442185852 1.431563987 2.312953879
2021 2.466781932 3.321716139 1.391830847 2.347947264
2021.5 2.433088048 3.16233378 1.343483395 2.391470613
2022 2.462993288 3.162556744 1.409434699 2.478308267

Note: The figure shows nominal neutral interest rates estimated using the model from Ferreira and Shousha (2021) for the United States (black), Canada (red), the euro area (gray), and the United Kingdom (blue). These estimates come from a two-sided Kalman-filter that calculates real neutral rates for each economy and then adds the 2 percent inflation target from each central bank.

Source: Staff estimates.

*Note: The accessible data table for Figure 1 was updated on December 22, 2022 to ensure consistency between the figure and data.

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Last Update: December 22, 2022