Accessible Version
Pricing Sentiment: Measuring Input Cost Pressure from ISM Survey Responses, Accessible Data
Figure 1. Oil Price Pressures
Figure 1 contains four line-and-bar charts arranged in two rows. The top row, labeled Panel (a) Unsupervised Embeddings, and the bottom row, labeled Panel (b) Generative AI, each show two charts: “Oil (Manufacturing)” on the left and “Oil (Services)” on the right. In every chart, orange bars show net “prices up” mentions per month (right axis, count of mentions), and a blue line shows the year-over-year percent change in the PPI for petroleum products (left axis). The horizontal axis spans 2024 through 2026, with tick labels at 2025 and 2026. Across all four charts, net mentions and the PPI are modestly negative through 2024 and 2025, then spike sharply upward in early 2026 (around March), coinciding with the Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption, before easing by mid-2026. The two classification methods produce closely matching patterns in both timing and magnitude for both manufacturing and services.
Notes: This figure shows the input price pressure indices for petroleum fuels. Panel (a) classifies mentions using unsupervised sentence embeddings, while panel (b) uses generative AI classification. The orange bars show net mentions per month, while the blue line shows year-over-year percent change in the PPI for petroleum products.
Figure 2. Ferrous Metals Price Pressures
Figure 2 contains two line-and-bar charts side by side: “Iron and Steel (Manufacturing)” on the left and “Iron and Steel (Services)” on the right, both using the generative AI classification. In each chart, orange bars show net mentions per month (right axis, count of mentions), and a blue line shows the year-over-year percent change in the PPI for iron and steel (left axis). The horizontal axis spans 2024 through 2026. Both charts show negative net mentions and a declining PPI in 2024, followed by a steady rise in price pressures from early 2025 onward, consistent with the 2025 steel tariffs and their extensions. The manufacturing series shows larger bar amplitudes and tracks the broad upward PPI trend, though less tightly than in Figure 1. The services series shows a similar upward pattern but with smaller amplitudes.
Notes: This figure shows the input price pressure indices for ferrous metals using the generative AI classifications. The orange bars show net mentions per month, while the blue line shows year-over-year percent change in the PPI for iron and steel.
Figure 3. High-Tech Price Pressures
Figure 3 contains two line-and-bar charts side by side: “Memory Chips (Manufacturing)” on the left and “Memory Chips (Services)” on the right, both using the generative AI classification. In each chart, orange bars show net mentions per month (right axis, count of mentions), and a blue line shows the year-over-year percent change in the PPI for semiconductors and other electronic components (left axis). The horizontal axis spans 2024 through 2026. Both charts show low or slightly negative activity through 2024 and most of 2025, then a marked rise in net mentions beginning December 2025 and a sharp increase in January 2026, remaining elevated through the end of the sample. In both sectors, the survey mentions rise ahead of the PPI, which only turns up distinctly in February 2026, reflecting rising memory prices driven by the AI buildout.
Notes: This figure shows the input price pressure indices for high-tech products, predominantly memory chips, using the generative AI classifications. The orange bars show net mentions per month, while the blue line shows year-over-year percent change in the PPI for semiconductors and other electronic components.
Figure 4. Aggregate Price Pressures
Figure 4 contains two line-and-bar charts side by side: “PPI – Final Demand (Manufacturing)” on the left and “PPI – Final Demand (Services)” on the right. In each chart, orange bars show aggregate net mentions per month across all categories (right axis, count of mentions), and a blue line shows the year-over-year percent change in total final demand PPI (left axis). The horizontal axis spans 2024 through 2026. Both charts show moderate, fluctuating price pressures through 2024 and 2025, followed by a pronounced increase that peaks in April 2026 before declining in June 2026. The manufacturing index is highly correlated with the PPI line, while the services relationship is somewhat weaker. Because the aggregate totals do not depend on category assignment, the embedding and generative AI approaches yield nearly identical series.
Notes: This figure shows the aggregate net input price pressure index across all categories, using the generative AI classifications. The orange bars show net mentions per month, while the blue line shows year-over-year percent change in total final demand PPI.