Quantifying Bottlenecks in Manufacturing, Accessible Data

Figure 1. Impact of Supply Chain Bottlenecks: A Calibration for Fabricated Metal Products

Figure 1 illustrates an application of our calibration exercise to the fabricated metal products industry (NAICS 332). The solid red and blue lines show unfilled orders and inventories, respectively. The dashed lines display the counterfactual projections of unfilled orders and inventories based on their average historical ratio to shipments through December 2020. The divergences between unfilled orders, inventories, and the counterfactual projections form our estimate of lost output due to bottleneck effects. In the case of fabricated metal products, while inventories have remained quite close to a projection based on their historical ratio to shipments, unfilled orders have jumped well above what shipments would have suggested.

Note: Constant ratios of unfilled orders and inventories to shipments set as the December 2020 7-month Henderson moving average.

Source: Census Bureau’s Survey of Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3)

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Figure 2. Estimated Bottleneck Effects on Production Growth in Manufacturing ex. MV&P

Figure 2 shows our estimates of the impact of bottleneck effects on production growth in manufacturing. The blue bars denote 3-month moving averages of bottleneck effects to smooth through month-to-month volatility; we interpret the positive values of bottleneck effects as indicating that supply constraints have been easing. The light blue dashed line shows the cumulative effect. Our estimates point to a deterioration in the effect of supply constraints through May 2021 before showing some signs of improvement in June and July.

Note: Blue bars represent 3-month moving averages of our estimated bottlenecks’ effects on production growth; light blue dashed line represents the cumulative effect on production growth.

Source: Census Bureau’s M3 Data

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Last Update: November 19, 2021