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Racing Against Tariffs: Global Impacts of Frontloading, Accessible Data

Figure 1: Surge of Exports to the US and Net Export Contribution to GDP growth in 2025Q1

Left - U.S. Imports
Dec. 2024 = 100

Date Euro area Mexico Taiwan France Germany Malaysia
1/16/2024 94.4 97.0 80.9 99.2 90.7 73.3
2/14/2024 89.9 102.6 67.2 96.8 89.8 73.0
3/16/2024 102.2 106.0 78.6 102.0 104.0 84.7
4/15/2024 111.4 109.8 90.2 112.9 104.7 83.5
5/16/2024 102.2 111.9 88.9 101.3 100.9 88.6
6/15/2024 97.9 107.7 97.7 95.8 94.7 83.7
7/16/2024 106.6 106.9 128.7 112.1 104.6 92.0
8/16/2024 105.4 111.5 116.7 97.8 98.2 91.8
9/15/2024 104.3 112.6 104.8 95.8 95.4 104.0
10/16/2024 104.0 116.0 106.1 101.7 93.1 106.3
11/15/2024 107.1 107.7 91.8 118.0 93.9 98.3
12/16/2024 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
1/16/2025 112.1 106.3 109.7 102.6 99.6 95.7
2/13/2025 111.2 106.2 104.9 96.7 92.5 88.9
3/16/2025 174.7 122.3 122.9 160.6 114.2 115.8
4/15/2025 110.6 106.7 144.8 134.8 96.0 97.2
5/16/2025 115.0 118.1 162.3 106.2 97.0 103.4

Right - GDP growth contributions by country
Contributions to RGDP growth (q-o-q, s.a.a.r.)

country group component value
Euro area Avg. Domestic spending 1.2
Euro area Avg. Inventories -0.6
Euro area Avg. Net exports 0.2
Euro area 2025 Q1 Domestic spending 2.0
Euro area 2025 Q1 Inventories -0.6
Euro area 2025 Q1 Net exports 1.1
Germany Avg. Domestic spending 0.5
Germany Avg. Inventories 0.1
Germany Avg. Net exports -0.8
Germany 2025 Q1 Domestic spending 1.5
Germany 2025 Q1 Inventories -3.4
Germany 2025 Q1 Net exports 3.6
Malaysia Avg. Domestic spending 5.7
Malaysia Avg. Inventories -0.3
Malaysia Avg. Net exports -1.1
Malaysia 2025 Q1 Domestic spending 3.2
Malaysia 2025 Q1 Inventories -2.5
Malaysia 2025 Q1 Net exports 2.2
Mexico Avg. Domestic spending 1.5
Mexico Avg. Inventories -0.1
Mexico Avg. Net exports 0.2
Mexico 2025 Q1 Domestic spending -7.0
Mexico 2025 Q1 Inventories -0.1
Mexico 2025 Q1 Net exports 7.9
Taiwan Avg. Domestic spending 2.1
Taiwan Avg. Inventories 1.4
Taiwan Avg. Net exports 1.1
Taiwan 2025 Q1 Domestic spending 5.3
Taiwan 2025 Q1 Inventories -7.1
Taiwan 2025 Q1 Net exports 8.6

Note: Underlying U.S. imports series are raw data in thousands of USD and extend through May 2025. Underlying GDP growth contributions data are seasonally adjusted. Growth rates and contributions to growth rates are in Q/Q at an annual rate. In the right chart, economies shown are the euro area, Germany, Malaysia, Mexico, and Taiwan. The left bar for each country reflects the average of 2023 through 2024.

Source: National sources via Haver Analytics, FRB staff calculations.

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Figure 2: Generalized Impulse Responses to a Positive Export Surprise

Top Left - Germany
Percent

Time GDP Inventories NX Domestic
0 0.743 0.372 0.263 0.108
1 0.224 0.047 0.116 0.061
2 0.095 0.030 0.039 0.025
3 0.031 0.009 0.014 0.008
4 0.012 0.004 0.005 0.003
5 0.004 0.001 0.002 0.001
6 0.002 0.000 0.001 0.000
7 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000
8 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Top Right - France
Percent

Time GDP Inventories NX Domestic
0 0.258 0.201 -0.118 0.175
1 0.024 -0.063 0.059 0.028
2 0.031 0.038 -0.028 0.021
3 -0.004 -0.017 0.015 -0.001
4 0.005 0.009 -0.007 0.003
5 -0.002 -0.004 0.004 -0.001
6 0.001 0.002 -0.002 0.001
7 0.000 -0.001 0.001 0.000
8 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000

Bottom Left - Taiwan
Percent

Time GDP Inventories NX Domestic
0 1.389 1.551 5.006 -5.169
1 0.375 -0.310 3.041 -2.356
2 0.448 0.314 0.585 -0.451
3 -0.004 -0.059 0.754 -0.699
4 0.114 0.060 0.034 0.020
5 -0.012 -0.012 0.175 -0.175
6 0.026 0.013 -0.007 0.020
7 -0.004 -0.003 0.039 -0.040
8 0.006 0.003 -0.004 0.007

Bottom Right - Malaysia
Percent

Time GDP Inventories NX Domestic
0 0.439 0.431 0.333 -0.326
1 -0.039 -0.160 0.235 -0.115
2 0.021 0.033 0.013 -0.025
3 -0.006 -0.012 0.011 -0.005
4 0.002 0.003 0.000 -0.001
5 -0.001 -0.001 0.001 0.000
6 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
7 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
8 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Source: FRB staff calculations.

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Figure 3: Association between components’ excess contributions to GDP growth

Left - Net exports and inventories

Country Net exports contribution Inventories contribution
CA 0.2 2.5
FR -4.1 4.4
GE 4.4 -3.5
HK 9.4 -4.2
ID 2.3 -2.7
IN 9.6 0.0
IT 0.5 -0.1
JA -3.5 2.4
KO -2.1 1.3
MA 3.3 -2.3
MX 7.6 0.0
PH -3.4 -0.8
SD 2.7 0.1
SI -2.6 1.2
SP 0.6 0.0
TA 7.6 -8.5
TH 11.1 -3.5

Right - Net exports and domestic spending

cc Net exports contribution Domestic spending contribution
CA 0.2 -2.2
FR -4.1 -1.0
GE 4.4 1.0
HK 9.4 -5.3
ID 2.3 -0.7
IN 9.6 -7.6
IT 0.5 0.1
JA -3.5 -0.1
KO -2.1 -1.4
MA 3.3 -2.5
MX 7.6 -8.5
PH -3.4 0.8
SD 2.7 -5.0
SI -2.6 -4.4
SP 0.6 -1.1
TA 7.6 3.2
TH 11.1 -8.1

Note: All series are seasonally adjusted. Growth rates and contributions to growth rates are in Q/Q at an annual rate.

Source: National sources via Haver Analytics.

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Figure A1. U.S. Imports

Dec. 2024 = 100

Date Euro area Chemicals Taiwan Computers and Electronic Products Canada Manufacturing
1/16/2024 98.5 72.8 89.4
2/14/2024 89.9 55.5 93.7
3/16/2024 106.8 75.7 97.9
4/15/2024 123.0 86.4 93.8
5/16/2024 100.9 84.0 96.1
6/15/2024 99.9 97.1 94.0
7/16/2024 108.1 139.0 93.4
8/16/2024 119.6 121.9 89.1
9/15/2024 129.1 104.9 95.6
10/16/2024 122.5 111.0 95.7
11/15/2024 119.3 91.0 96.1
12/16/2024 100.0 100.0 100.0
1/16/2025 162.2 113.6 105.3
2/13/2025 160.5 109.4 96.1
3/16/2025 309.8 133.1 99.9
4/15/2025 136.2 166.7 76.8
5/15/2025 161.5 193.6 80.7

Source: Haver Analytics.

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Last Update: August 01, 2025