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Student Loan Debt and Aggregate Consumption Growth Accessible Data

Figure 1: Annual Student Loan Originations

Billions of 2015 Dollars

Year Actual Counterfactual path
1990 19.13 19.13
1991 19.86 19.86
1992 20.12 20.12
1993 27.03 27.03
1994 36.05 36.05
1995 42.58 42.58
1996 46.16 46.16
1997 48.09 48.09
1998 49.92 49.92
1999 53.40 53.40
2000 54.44 54.44
2001 58.69 58.69
2002 67.73 58.69
2003 78.29 58.69
2004 86.61 58.69
2005 91.50 58.69
2006 95.50 58.69
2007 104.25 58.69
2008 106.33 58.69
2009 119.84 58.69
2010 124.20 58.69
2011 121.05 58.69
2012 116.48 58.69
2013 113.25 58.69
2014 108.06 58.69
2015 106.80 58.69

Source: College Board "Trends in Student Aid" Table 1.

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Figure 2: Contagion to Other Consumer Credit Markets

Percent held by at-risk student loan borrowers

Period Mortgage Debt Auto Debt Credit Card Debt Other Debt
1999:Q1 0.90 2.88 2.51 2.36
1999:Q2 0.90 2.86 2.55 2.31
1999:Q3 0.86 2.76 2.34 2.12
1999:Q4 0.89 2.71 2.36 2.06
2000:Q1 0.94 2.82 2.50 2.25
2000:Q2 1.01 2.94 2.56 2.14
2000:Q3 0.99 2.90 2.47 2.17
2000:Q4 1.02 2.91 2.61 2.30
2001:Q1 1.11 3.06 2.72 2.35
2001:Q2 1.13 3.12 2.82 2.44
2001:Q3 1.26 3.49 2.99 2.54
2001:Q4 1.29 3.55 3.08 2.68
2002:Q1 1.29 3.37 3.06 2.63
2002:Q2 0.88 2.49 2.25 2.40
2002:Q3 0.91 2.52 2.25 2.65
2002:Q4 0.95 2.53 2.28 2.73
2003:Q1 1.26 3.42 3.06 3.46
2003:Q2 1.22 3.34 2.96 3.38
2003:Q3 1.25 3.28 2.89 3.42
2003:Q4 1.22 3.34 3.03 3.97
2004:Q1 1.21 3.38 2.97 4.04
2004:Q2 1.19 3.27 2.82 3.83
2004:Q3 1.51 4.01 3.41 3.91
2004:Q4 1.62 4.22 3.42 4.08
2005:Q1 1.59 4.25 3.44 4.16
2005:Q2 1.59 4.34 3.34 3.95
2005:Q3 1.58 4.41 3.37 4.06
2005:Q4 1.59 4.68 3.37 4.10
2006:Q1 1.62 4.79 3.43 4.17
2006:Q2 1.64 4.93 3.39 4.14
2006:Q3 1.74 5.12 3.46 4.33
2006:Q4 1.90 5.44 3.68 4.41
2007:Q1 1.97 5.47 3.69 4.56
2007:Q2 2.04 5.64 3.69 4.30
2007:Q3 1.78 4.94 3.25 3.82
2007:Q4 2.20 6.08 3.92 4.54
2008:Q1 2.34 6.19 3.96 4.71
2008:Q2 2.33 6.28 3.95 4.71
2008:Q3 2.46 6.46 4.05 4.95
2008:Q4 2.75 6.87 4.43 5.20
2009:Q1 2.89 6.85 4.62 5.33
2009:Q2 3.03 6.88 4.66 5.34
2009:Q3 3.07 6.86 4.77 5.45
2009:Q4 3.19 6.96 4.91 5.52
2010:Q1 3.25 6.87 4.98 5.49
2010:Q2 3.22 6.69 4.88 5.47
2010:Q3 3.20 6.67 4.78 5.57
2010:Q4 3.33 6.94 4.91 5.69
2011:Q1 3.26 6.80 4.80 5.64
2011:Q2 3.12 6.75 4.48 5.57
2011:Q3 3.11 6.83 4.34 5.60
2011:Q4 3.17 6.96 4.30 5.58
2012:Q1 3.07 6.67 4.21 5.44
2012:Q2 3.07 6.93 4.46 5.71
2012:Q3 3.13 7.43 4.30 5.85
2012:Q4 3.12 7.54 4.40 5.94
2013:Q1 2.94 7.42 4.32 5.90
2013:Q2 2.82 7.39 4.16 5.72
2013:Q3 2.73 7.35 4.16 5.70
2013:Q4 2.74 7.65 4.33 5.83
2014:Q1 2.67 7.60 4.19 5.89
2014:Q2 2.52 7.64 3.99 5.68
2014:Q3 2.49 7.74 4.07 5.73
2014:Q4 2.51 8.02 4.15 5.91
2015:Q1 2.43 7.78 4.27 5.82
2015:Q2 2.30 7.93 4.22 5.68
2015:Q3 2.25 7.96 4.29 5.73
2015:Q4 2.30 8.14 4.47 6.04
2016:Q1 2.21 8.04 4.44 6.05
2016:Q2 2.12 8.03 4.40 5.97
2016:Q3 2.17 8.08 4.63 6.18
2016:Q4 2.15 8.29 4.80 6.36
2017:Q1 2.14 8.17 4.85 6.30
2017:Q2 2.09 8.15 4.81 6.24

Note: Shares are calculated as balances held by student loan borrowers who are 90+ days past due on their student loan debt obligations or who are classified as subprime borrowers (i.e., having a riskscore lower than 620).

Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel, Equifax.

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Last Update: February 21, 2018