Accessible Version

The coming long-run slowdown in corporate profit growth and stock returns, Accessible Data

Figure 1. Interest and tax expenses as a share of earnings
Year (Quarterly) (Interest + Tax Expenses) / EBIT
2002-4 0.474
2003-1 0.475
2003-2 0.472
2003-3 0.465
2003-4 0.454
2004-1 0.443
2004-2 0.434
2004-3 0.426
2004-4 0.426
2005-1 0.428
2005-2 0.428
2005-3 0.440
2005-4 0.443
2006-1 0.441
2006-2 0.441
2006-3 0.444
2006-4 0.441
2007-1 0.439
2007-2 0.443
2007-3 0.477
2007-4 0.474
2008-1 0.473
2008-2 0.473
2008-3 0.425
2008-4 0.430
2009-1 0.427
2009-2 0.424
2009-3 0.427
2009-4 0.419
2010-1 0.419
2010-2 0.410
2010-3 0.390
2010-4 0.383
2011-1 0.377
2011-2 0.374
2011-3 0.380
2011-4 0.368
2012-1 0.367
2012-2 0.366
2012-3 0.370
2012-4 0.385
2013-1 0.378
2013-2 0.377
2013-3 0.369
2013-4 0.353
2014-1 0.354
2014-2 0.357
2014-3 0.364
2014-4 0.375
2015-1 0.378
2015-2 0.376
2015-3 0.366
2015-4 0.353
2016-1 0.351
2016-2 0.345
2016-3 0.344
2016-4 0.353
2017-1 0.351
2017-2 0.348
2017-3 0.350
2017-4 0.328
2018-1 0.319
2018-2 0.301
2018-3 0.281
2018-4 0.275
2019-1 0.270
2019-2 0.273
2019-3 0.274
2019-4 0.275
2020-1 0.269
2020-2 0.279
2020-3 0.281
2020-4 0.288
2021-1 0.286
2021-2 0.275
2021-3 0.269
2021-4 0.266
2022-1 0.258

Note. Aggregate values for S&P 500 nonfinancial firms.

Source: Compustat; S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Return to text

Figure 2. Corporate interest rates
Year (Quarterly) Interest Expenses / Total Debt
2002-4 0.051
2003-1 0.052
2003-2 0.051
2003-3 0.051
2003-4 0.051
2004-1 0.051
2004-2 0.050
2004-3 0.050
2004-4 0.050
2005-1 0.050
2005-2 0.051
2005-3 0.053
2005-4 0.054
2006-1 0.054
2006-2 0.057
2006-3 0.059
2006-4 0.060
2007-1 0.061
2007-2 0.060
2007-3 0.059
2007-4 0.058
2008-1 0.057
2008-2 0.056
2008-3 0.054
2008-4 0.053
2009-1 0.053
2009-2 0.052
2009-3 0.051
2009-4 0.051
2010-1 0.050
2010-2 0.050
2010-3 0.049
2010-4 0.049
2011-1 0.049
2011-2 0.048
2011-3 0.047
2011-4 0.046
2012-1 0.045
2012-2 0.045
2012-3 0.044
2012-4 0.043
2013-1 0.043
2013-2 0.042
2013-3 0.041
2013-4 0.040
2014-1 0.039
2014-2 0.038
2014-3 0.038
2014-4 0.037
2015-1 0.036
2015-2 0.035
2015-3 0.035
2015-4 0.036
2016-1 0.036
2016-2 0.037
2016-3 0.037
2016-4 0.037
2017-1 0.037
2017-2 0.037
2017-3 0.037
2017-4 0.037
2018-1 0.037
2018-2 0.037
2018-3 0.037
2018-4 0.037
2019-1 0.037
2019-2 0.036
2019-3 0.036
2019-4 0.035
2020-1 0.033
2020-2 0.032
2020-3 0.031
2020-4 0.031
2021-1 0.031
2021-2 0.031
2021-3 0.030
2021-4 0.030
2022-1 0.030

Note. Aggregate values for S&P 500 nonfinancial firms.

Source: Compustat; S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Return to text

Figure 3. Corporate leverage
Year (Quarterly) Total Debt / Total Assets
2002-4 0.330
2003-1 0.329
2003-2 0.327
2003-3 0.325
2003-4 0.320
2004-1 0.315
2004-2 0.309
2004-3 0.304
2004-4 0.302
2005-1 0.299
2005-2 0.296
2005-3 0.293
2005-4 0.289
2006-1 0.286
2006-2 0.277
2006-3 0.270
2006-4 0.265
2007-1 0.261
2007-2 0.265
2007-3 0.269
2007-4 0.272
2008-1 0.276
2008-2 0.279
2008-3 0.283
2008-4 0.289
2009-1 0.295
2009-2 0.300
2009-3 0.302
2009-4 0.297
2010-1 0.291
2010-2 0.286
2010-3 0.281
2010-4 0.278
2011-1 0.275
2011-2 0.272
2011-3 0.270
2011-4 0.270
2012-1 0.270
2012-2 0.271
2012-3 0.271
2012-4 0.272
2013-1 0.273
2013-2 0.274
2013-3 0.275
2013-4 0.276
2014-1 0.279
2014-2 0.281
2014-3 0.283
2014-4 0.286
2015-1 0.291
2015-2 0.296
2015-3 0.301
2015-4 0.306
2016-1 0.310
2016-2 0.314
2016-3 0.319
2016-4 0.323
2017-1 0.326
2017-2 0.329
2017-3 0.330
2017-4 0.332
2018-1 0.333
2018-2 0.332
2018-3 0.332
2018-4 0.332
2019-1 0.336
2019-2 0.341
2019-3 0.347
2019-4 0.352
2020-1 0.357
2020-2 0.362
2020-3 0.366
2020-4 0.368
2021-1 0.366
2021-2 0.361
2021-3 0.357
2021-4 0.353
2022-1 0.349

Note. Aggregate values for S&P 500 nonfinancial firms.

Source: Compustat; S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Return to text

Figure 4. Effective corporate tax rates
Year (Quarterly) Tax Expenses / Pre-Tax Income
2002-4 0.301
2003-4 0.292
2004-4 0.293
2005-4 0.304
2006-4 0.299
2007-4 0.329
2008-4 0.296
2009-4 0.281
2010-4 0.266
2011-4 0.264
2012-4 0.244
2013-4 0.258
2014-4 0.269
2015-4 0.237
2016-4 0.230
2017-4 0.168
2018-4 0.167
2019-4 0.145
2020-4 0.146
2021-4 0.164

Note. Aggregate values for S&P 500 nonfinancial firms.

Source: Compustat; S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Return to text

Figure 5. Real growth indicators for S&P 500 nonfinancial firms
Year (Quarterly) Market Cap. Net Income Pre-tax Income Earnings before interest and tax expense Sales U.S. GDP
2002-4 0.774 0.392 0.504 0.604 0.883 0.928
2003-1 0.740 0.451 0.555 0.645 0.893 0.932
2003-2 0.842 0.542 0.617 0.695 0.895 0.941
2003-3 0.862 0.600 0.665 0.735 0.909 0.956
2003-4 0.955 0.820 0.817 0.859 0.925 0.968
2004-1 0.954 0.881 0.871 0.902 0.942 0.973
2004-2 0.970 0.970 0.945 0.960 0.964 0.981
2004-3 0.941 0.991 0.964 0.972 0.981 0.990
2004-4 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
2005-1 0.969 1.014 1.019 1.016 1.005 1.011
2005-2 0.947 1.033 1.034 1.030 1.011 1.016
2005-3 0.969 1.105 1.107 1.091 1.017 1.024
2005-4 0.956 1.146 1.137 1.116 1.017 1.030
2006-1 0.996 1.173 1.160 1.136 1.029 1.044
2006-2 0.978 1.194 1.191 1.164 1.038 1.046
2006-3 0.986 1.208 1.211 1.184 1.050 1.048
2006-4 1.049 1.263 1.248 1.218 1.054 1.057
2007-1 1.050 1.283 1.264 1.229 1.054 1.060
2007-2 1.097 1.288 1.273 1.235 1.061 1.067
2007-3 1.103 1.216 1.284 1.242 1.068 1.073
2007-4 1.090 1.113 1.215 1.184 1.089 1.080
2008-1 0.963 1.114 1.225 1.193 1.113 1.075
2008-2 0.965 1.078 1.203 1.175 1.141 1.081
2008-3 0.881 1.194 1.238 1.204 1.172 1.076
2008-4 0.700 0.876 0.989 0.998 1.150 1.052
2009-1 0.628 0.701 0.812 0.851 1.106 1.040
2009-2 0.715 0.655 0.744 0.794 1.048 1.038
2009-3 0.804 0.587 0.656 0.718 0.995 1.042
2009-4 0.862 0.999 0.959 0.965 0.993 1.053
2010-1 0.889 1.155 1.117 1.093 1.011 1.058
2010-2 0.810 1.259 1.212 1.169 1.033 1.068
2010-3 0.877 1.334 1.262 1.209 1.052 1.077
2010-4 0.960 1.380 1.301 1.240 1.068 1.082
2011-1 1.019 1.452 1.360 1.287 1.085 1.080
2011-2 1.020 1.516 1.421 1.336 1.110 1.087
2011-3 0.887 1.537 1.467 1.373 1.135 1.087
2011-4 0.976 1.525 1.443 1.351 1.153 1.099
2012-1 1.059 1.514 1.436 1.345 1.166 1.108
2012-2 1.027 1.485 1.413 1.326 1.165 1.113
2012-3 1.065 1.448 1.383 1.301 1.159 1.115
2012-4 1.039 1.404 1.371 1.289 1.159 1.116
2013-1 1.117 1.410 1.357 1.276 1.153 1.126
2013-2 1.140 1.418 1.358 1.276 1.156 1.127
2013-3 1.196 1.473 1.390 1.301 1.166 1.136
2013-4 1.308 1.597 1.469 1.366 1.172 1.144
2014-1 1.314 1.607 1.485 1.378 1.180 1.140
2014-2 1.370 1.628 1.508 1.397 1.190 1.155
2014-3 1.368 1.650 1.540 1.422 1.192 1.168
2014-4 1.410 1.573 1.485 1.376 1.190 1.174
2015-1 1.427 1.514 1.432 1.334 1.174 1.183
2015-2 1.417 1.428 1.351 1.267 1.156 1.190
2015-3 1.340 1.341 1.248 1.187 1.143 1.194
2015-4 1.406 1.262 1.161 1.118 1.130 1.196
2016-1 1.411 1.248 1.137 1.104 1.126 1.203
2016-2 1.434 1.245 1.115 1.093 1.124 1.206
2016-3 1.513 1.281 1.146 1.124 1.125 1.214
2016-4 1.520 1.364 1.228 1.198 1.132 1.220
2017-1 1.597 1.446 1.295 1.255 1.146 1.225
2017-2 1.633 1.511 1.350 1.304 1.160 1.232
2017-3 1.687 1.555 1.390 1.338 1.171 1.241
2017-4 1.767 1.610 1.399 1.351 1.191 1.253
2018-1 1.751 1.656 1.425 1.374 1.209 1.262
2018-2 1.775 1.737 1.459 1.403 1.224 1.273
2018-3 1.886 1.808 1.480 1.422 1.241 1.279
2018-4 1.635 1.837 1.494 1.434 1.245 1.282
2019-1 1.818 1.819 1.464 1.413 1.245 1.289
2019-2 1.865 1.796 1.447 1.401 1.248 1.300
2019-3 1.893 1.742 1.407 1.370 1.252 1.309
2019-4 2.035 1.742 1.398 1.364 1.259 1.315
2020-1 1.687 1.538 1.232 1.223 1.257 1.298
2020-2 2.004 1.314 1.058 1.079 1.217 1.182
2020-3 2.179 1.278 1.023 1.048 1.204 1.271
2020-4 2.435 1.188 0.971 1.003 1.208 1.285
2021-1 2.539 1.529 1.237 1.225 1.231 1.305
2021-2 2.688 1.895 1.530 1.465 1.300 1.326
2021-3 2.712 2.148 1.728 1.627 1.345 1.334
2021-4 2.913 2.472 1.985 1.835 1.381 1.356
2022-1 2.706 2.494 2.008 1.847 1.409 1.351
Compound growth per-annum (Figure 5) 5.9% 5.4% 4.1% 3.6% 2.0% 1.8%

Note. Aggregate values for S&P 500 nonfinancial firms.

Source: Compustat; S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Return to text

Last Update: September 06, 2022