Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Figure 1: Share of Sectors by Country of Origin

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Figure 2. Numerator Fisher Price Index constructed using product quantities and prices versus the PCE for food

This figure consists of two line charts arranged vertically, showing data about food price indices from 2018 to 2026.

Panel A: Numerator FPI This is a line chart showing monthly data from 2018 to 2025, with the y-axis showing index values (Jan 2018=100) ranging from 100 to slightly above 130. The chart displays two variables: "Numerator FPI" (blue solid line) and "PCE Food" (green dotted line). Both indices follow similar upward trajectories from the 2018 baseline value of 100. The lines track closely. Both indices show their steepest increases between 2021 and 2023. By December 2025, the Numerator FPI reaches approximately 130.7 and remains very closed to the PCE Food index.

Panel B: 12-month Percent Change This is a line chart showing monthly data from 2019 to 2025, with the y-axis showing percentage changes ranging from 0% to slightly over 15%. The chart displays year-over-year percent changes for both the Numerator FPI (blue solid line) and PCE Food (green dotted line). Both indicators show some fluctuations over time, with a sharp spike occurring for both lines in 2022, reaching peak values of approximately 13-14% by mid 2022. Following this peak, there is a rapid decline through 2023 and 2024. By December 2025, the Numerator FPI year-over-year percent change stabilizes at approximately 1.9%.

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Figure 3. Price indices by country of origin

This figure contains two vertically stacked line graphs labeled as Figure 3, divided into Panel A and Panel B.

Panel A: Price Indices by Country-of-Origin

This is a line graph showing monthly data from 2018 to 2025 in the x-axis. Tthe y-axis shows an index (Jan 2018=100) ranging from approximately 95 to 140. The chart displays five variables representing different countries: USA (blue solid line), Canada (green dashed line), Mexico (yellow solid line), China (pink dot-dashed line), and Others (orange two-dashed line). All countries show relatively stable indices from 2018 to 2021, followed by increases through 2022-2023. China index starts diverging in early 2025 with Others starting to increase more around the same time. Other countries' indexes are relatively stable. By December 2025, China shows the highest index at about 137.9, followed by Mexico at 131.9, Canada at 128.2, USA at 127.7, and Others at 127.6.

Panel B: 12-month Percent Change

This is a line graph showing monthly data for year over year changes from 2019 to 2025 in the x-axis. The y-axis shows percent change ranging from approximately 0% to 15%. The graph displays the same five country variables as Panel A. All countries show relatively low and stable percent changes from 2019 to 2021, followed by sharp increases in 2022-2023, with peaks ranging between approximately 8% and 15%. After these peaks, there's a decline through 2024 for all countries. By December 2025, the countries show divergent trends: China at about 8.4%, Others at about 5.3%, Mexico at 2.9%, USA at 1.2%, Canada at 0.6%.

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Figure 4. Price changes in 2025 by country of origin

This figure is a bar chart showing monthly year-over-year percent changes throughout 2025, with the x-axis showing months from January to December and the y-axis showing percentage values from 0 to above 8 percent. Five colored bars represent different countries/regions: USA, Canada, Mexico, China, and Others.

The chart tracks monthly year-over-year percent changes across the five regions throughout 2025. The USA line generally maintains relatively stable values throughout the year around 2 percent. China demonstrates distinct patterns compared to other countries, particularly in he second half of the year: prices of Chinese goods start going up significantly in July and remain elevated as they reach around 8.5% year over year change in December. Canada shows minimal fluctuations. Mexico displays slight changes throughout the year. The "Others" category shows pronouced jumpes in November and December.

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Figure 5. Event study results for price changes of goods brought from China and Canada, Mexico and Others

This figure consists of two side-by-side line graphs (Panel A and Panel B) showing monthly data from September 2024 to December 2025. The y-axis measures estimated price change in percentage points, ranging from approximately -5.0 to 5.0 percentage points in both panels. Each panel includes a line with circle markers representing the estimated coefficients and a shaded area representing the 95% confidence interval. A vertical dashed line marks April 2025 as the reference point (0 value).

Panel A (China) shows more volatile price changes. Before April 2025, price changes fluctuate between approximately -2.5% and 2.5%, with notable dips in December 2024 and February 2025. After April 2025, there is an increase in price changes, reaching a peak of about 5% by December 2025. The confidence interval is relatively wide, indicating greater uncertainty. Panel B (Canada, Mexico and Others) displays more stable price changes. Before April 2025, values remain mostly between -1% and 1% with a small peak around December 2024. After April 2025, there is a more gradual increase in price changes, reaching about 2.5% by December 2025, with a narrower confidence interval.

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