Accessible Version

Tracking consumer sentiment versus how consumers are doing based on verified retail purchases, Accessible Data

Figure 1: The index of consumer sentiment and percentage of consumers who mention high prices and lower incomes as reasons for their financial situation being worse than a year ago

Index of Consumer Sentiment (left) and Percent of Survey respondents (right)

Date Lower Income
(Reason for Household Financial Situation being “Worse than a year ago”)		 Higher Prices
(Reason for Household Financial Situation being “Worse than a year ago”)		 Index of Consumer Sentiment
1960-01-01 25   100
1960-04-01 23 7 93.3
1960-07-01 24 7 97.2
1960-10-01 25 8 90.1
1961-01-01 34 8 91.6
1961-04-01 22 7 92.5
1961-07-01 21 7 99.2
1961-10-01 20 6 93
1962-01-01 25 5 99.9
1962-04-01 21 6 95.4
1962-07-01 19 6 91.6
1962-10-01 15 6 95
1963-01-01 21 6 98.4
1963-04-01 19 4 91.7
1963-07-01 19 4 96.4
1963-10-01 19 4 94.4
1964-01-01 19 4 99.5
1964-04-01 19 4 98.5
1964-07-01 18 4 100.6
1964-10-01 18 4 99.9
1965-01-01 19 4 102
1965-04-01 17 5 105.4
1965-07-01 16 6 103.4
1965-10-01 15 7 102.9
1966-01-01 9 5 100
1966-04-01 12 13 95.7
1966-07-01 18 21 91.2
1966-10-01 13 18 88.3
1967-01-01 13 14 94.1
1967-04-01 12 15 95.9
1967-07-01 10 17 97
1967-10-01 12 17 92.9
1968-01-01 12 13 97.2
1968-04-01 11 20 92.4
1968-07-01 13 16 92.4
1968-10-01 13 18 91.7
1969-01-01 13 13 98.2
1969-04-01 11 22 91.5
1969-07-01 13 24 86.4
1969-10-01 12 25 79.7
1970-01-01 15 23 78.1
1970-04-01 13 22 75.4
1970-07-01 11 22 77.6
1970-10-01 15 23 72.4
1971-01-01 20 19 78.1
1971-04-01 15 21 80.2
1971-07-01 17 21 82.1
1971-10-01 18 18 82
1972-01-01 16 18 92.8
1972-04-01 12 12 88.6
1972-07-01 10 14 95.2
1972-10-01 13 23 90.7
1973-01-01 15 24 81.9
1973-04-01 14 26 77
1973-07-01 16 39 72
1973-10-01 14 26 76.5
1974-01-01 12 43 61.8
1974-04-01 13 32 72.1
1974-07-01 11 44 64.4
1974-10-01 16 40 59.5
1975-01-01 19 36 57.6
1975-04-01 20 30 72.8
1975-07-01 18 31 75.7
1975-10-01 19 25 75.6
1976-01-01 17 23 84.6
1976-04-01 17 22 83.3
1976-07-01 14 24 89.7
1976-10-01 19 25 87
1977-01-01 17 29 87.1
1977-04-01 14 27 90.2
1977-07-01 16 24 89
1977-10-01 14 25 84.4
1978-01-01 17 23 82.6
1978-04-01 17 29 81.8
1978-07-01 14 32 80
1978-10-01 14 32 73.8
1979-01-01 15 34 71.9
1979-04-01 12 45 66.7
1979-07-01 12 43 63.7
1979-10-01 16 47 62.3
1980-01-01 15 44 63.9
1980-04-01 17 42 54.4
1980-07-01 17 37 67.8
1980-10-01 16 42 72
1981-01-01 17 44 68.3
1981-04-01 17 35 73.9
1981-07-01 14 31 74.8
1981-10-01 18 34 65.7
1982-01-01 22 31 66.6
1982-04-01 20 27 66.2
1982-07-01 24 28 66.7
1982-10-01 23 25 72.5
1983-01-01 26 23 75
1983-04-01 21 18 91.5
1983-07-01 20 16 91.2
1983-10-01 17 17 91.6
1984-01-01 17 15 99.5
1984-04-01 15 15 96.6
1984-07-01 15 12 98.9
1984-10-01 18 13 95
1985-01-01 17 14 94.5
1985-04-01 17 14 94.3
1985-07-01 17 14 92.8
1985-10-01 16 13 91
1986-01-01 17 11 95.5
1986-04-01 17 11 96.8
1986-07-01 19 11 94.9
1986-10-01 16 10 92
1987-01-01 19 11 90.5
1987-04-01 17 12 91.8
1987-07-01 15 10 93.9
1987-10-01 16 10 86.4
1988-01-01 16 9 92.3
1988-04-01 16 9 93.5
1988-07-01 16 11 96
1988-10-01 18 13 93
1989-01-01 18 14 95.9
1989-04-01 16 14 90.9
1989-07-01 17 15 92.5
1989-10-01 16 14 91.8
1990-01-01 16 16 91.3
1990-04-01 14 13 90.9
1990-07-01 16 16 79.1
1990-10-01 21 22 65.2
1991-01-01 23 14 74.8
1991-04-01 24 18 80.8
1991-07-01 25 15 82.6
1991-10-01 26 18 71.9
1992-01-01 28 15 70.7
1992-04-01 27 13 78.9
1992-07-01 26 17 76.1
1992-10-01 27 13 83.3
1993-01-01 25 12 87.3
1993-04-01 23 13 82.5
1993-07-01 25 14 77.4
1993-10-01 23 12 84.1
1994-01-01 20 11 93
1994-04-01 22 9 92.2
1994-07-01 22 11 90.7
1994-10-01 21 11 93.1
1995-01-01 20 9 94.3
1995-04-01 20 10 91.7
1995-07-01 20 9 93.1
1995-10-01 20 9 89.8
1996-01-01 20 8 90.5
1996-04-01 19 10 91.5
1996-07-01 18 12 94.9
1996-10-01 16 9 97.5
1997-01-01 19 10 99
1997-04-01 15 7 103
1997-07-01 14 7 105.8
1997-10-01 11 7 105
1998-01-01 12 7 107.8
1998-04-01 11 6 106.9
1998-07-01 14 5 103.5
1998-10-01 13 6 100.2
1999-01-01 14 6 105.9
1999-04-01 14 5 106.2
1999-07-01 14 6 105.9
1999-10-01 15 7 105.2
2000-01-01 13 6 110.1
2000-04-01 14 9 108.8
2000-07-01 15 8 107.5
2000-10-01 15 8 103.9
2001-01-01 16 11 92.3
2001-04-01 19 12 91
2001-07-01 19 8 88.5
2001-10-01 24 6 85.1
2002-01-01 25 6 93.1
2002-04-01 24 7 94.1
2002-07-01 23 7 87.3
2002-10-01 25 9 83.8
2003-01-01 25 11 80
2003-04-01 25 8 89.3
2003-07-01 24 10 89.3
2003-10-01 25 12 92
2004-01-01 22 10 98.1
2004-04-01 22 15 93.4
2004-07-01 22 13 95.6
2004-10-01 22 14 93.9
2005-01-01 20 12 94.1
2005-04-01 20 16 90.2
2005-07-01 18 18 87.4
2005-10-01 21 24 82.4
2006-01-01 18 18 88.9
2006-04-01 18 23 83.8
2006-07-01 21 24 84
2006-10-01 17 15 92.5
2007-01-01 20 17 92.2
2007-04-01 20 23 86.9
2007-07-01 19 22 85.8
2007-10-01 23 24 77.5
2008-01-01 20 28 72.9
2008-04-01 25 41 59.6
2008-07-01 24 42 64.8
2008-10-01 30 31 57.7
2009-01-01 31 23 58.3
2009-04-01 35 19 68.2
2009-07-01 36 20 68.4
2009-10-01 37 20 70.1
2010-01-01 35 18 73.9
2010-04-01 35 17 73.9
2010-07-01 35 16 68.3
2010-10-01 34 16 71.2
2011-01-01 30 23 73.1
2011-04-01 29 28 71.9
2011-07-01 32 27 59.5
2011-10-01 32 23 64.7
2012-01-01 27 25 75.5
2012-04-01 30 24 76.3
2012-07-01 28 24 75
2012-10-01 27 19 79.4
2013-01-01 31 22 76.7
2013-04-01 26 17 81.7
2013-07-01 28 16 81.6
2013-10-01 25 18 76.9
2014-01-01 25 18 80.9
2014-04-01 24 16 82.8
2014-07-01 23 18 83
2014-10-01 23 14 89.8
2015-01-01 23 12 95.5
2015-04-01 23 12 94.2
2015-07-01 22 11 90.8
2015-10-01 25 11 91.3
2016-01-01 21 10 91.5
2016-04-01 21 10 92.4
2016-07-01 22 11 90.3
2016-10-01 21 10 93.2
2017-01-01 17 6 97.2
2017-04-01 18 7 96.4
2017-07-01 15 8 95.1
2017-10-01 15 7 98.4
2018-01-01 15 6 98.9
2018-04-01 16 8 98.3
2018-07-01 16 8 98.1
2018-10-01 17 8 98.2
2019-01-01 16 7 94.5
2019-04-01 17 8 98.4
2019-07-01 17 7 93.8
2019-10-01 14 7 97.2
2020-01-01 15 6 96.4
2020-04-01 26 3 74
2020-07-01 28 6 75.6
2020-10-01 27 4 79.8
2021-01-01 25 6 80.2
2021-04-01 18 10 85.6
2021-07-01 21 17 74.8
2021-10-01 17 24 69.9
2022-01-01 19 31 63.1
2022-04-01 19 40 57.8
2022-07-01 20 45 56.1
2022-10-01 20 44 58.8
2023-01-01 19 37 64.6
2023-04-01 20 41 62.3
2023-07-01 20 38 69.6
2023-10-01 20 42 64.9
2024-01-01 20 35 78.4
2024-04-01 18 42 71.1
2024-07-01 20 45 68.1
2024-10-01 19 41 72.1

Inset box, monthly

Date Lower Income
(Reason for Household Financial Situation being “Worse than a year ago”)		 Higher Prices
(Reason for Household Financial Situation being “Worse than a year ago”)		 Index of Consumer Sentiment
2019-01-01 17 9 91.2
2019-02-01 17 8 93.8
2019-03-01 14 6 98.4
2019-04-01 18 8 97.2
2019-05-01 17 8 100
2019-06-01 17 9 98.2
2019-07-01 19 6 98.4
2019-08-01 16 8 89.8
2019-09-01 17 6 93.2
2019-10-01 14 6 95.5
2019-11-01 14 8 96.8
2019-12-01 15 6 99.3
2020-01-01 18 7 99.8
2020-02-01 14 6 101
2020-03-01 14 6 89.1
2020-04-01 26 2 71.8
2020-05-01 25 3 72.3
2020-06-01 26 4 78.1
2020-07-01 29 6 72.5
2020-08-01 25 6 74.1
2020-09-01 29 5 80.4
2020-10-01 25 5 81.8
2020-11-01 28 5 76.9
2020-12-01 28 3 80.7
2021-01-01 27 5 79
2021-02-01 25 6 76.8
2021-03-01 24 8 84.9
2021-04-01 17 8 88.3
2021-05-01 19 11 82.9
2021-06-01 20 11 85.5
2021-07-01 23 13 81.2
2021-08-01 21 19 70.3
2021-09-01 19 18 72.8
2021-10-01 19 20 71.7
2021-11-01 17 25 67.4
2021-12-01 15 27 70.6
2022-01-01 18 24 67.2
2022-02-01 19 31 62.8
2022-03-01 19 36 59.4
2022-04-01 21 36 65.2
2022-05-01 19 38 58.4
2022-06-01 18 47 50
2022-07-01 18 49 51.5
2022-08-01 19 44 58.2
2022-09-01 21 42 58.6
2022-10-01 19 42 59.9
2022-11-01 20 46 56.7
2022-12-01 21 43 59.8
2023-01-01 19 36 64.9
2023-02-01 18 38 66.9
2023-03-01 19 38 62
2023-04-01 20 40 63.7
2023-05-01 21 41 59
2023-06-01 20 41 64.2
2023-07-01 20 36 71.5
2023-08-01 18 37 69.4
2023-09-01 21 39 67.8
2023-10-01 21 47 63.8
2023-11-01 19 40 61.3
2023-12-01 20 38 69.7
2024-01-01 19 36 79
2024-02-01 20 35 76.9
2024-03-01 19 33 79.4
2024-04-01 17 38 77.2
2024-05-01 18 41 69.1
2024-06-01 18 46 68.2
2024-07-01 20 46 66.4
2024-08-01 20 47 67.9
2024-09-01 19 40 70.1
2024-10-01 19 43 70.5
2024-11-01 20 44 71.8
2024-12-01 19 35 74

Note: In the black solid line, we report the quarterly Index of Consumer Sentiment, on the left vertical axis. The blue dashed and orange dotted lines report the share of consumers citing higher prices and lower incomes, respectively, as the reasons for their financial situation being worse compared to a year ago. The right axis is inverted: more negative sentiment (a higher share of consumers expressing negative sentiment) related to higher prices and lower incomes appears at the bottom. Shaded areas indicate periods of recessions as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research where appropriate: April 1960 to February 1962, December 1969 to November 1970, November 1973 to March 1975, January 1980 to July 1980, July 1981 to December 1982, July 1990 to March 1991, March 2001–November 2001, December 2007–June 2009 and February 2020–April 2020. The inset box zooms in on the same three series in monthly frequency from 2019 onwards.

Source: University of Michigan, Table 1 (The Index of Consumer Sentiment) and Table 7 (Reasons for opinions about household financial situation – prices are higher (worse than a year ago) and lower income (worse than a year ago)).

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Figure 2: Survey responses for perceived inflation versus experienced inflation based on verified purchases between 2019 and 2024
Survey Responses for Self-Reported Inflation Experienced Inflation Based on Verified Purchases
<0% 0-20% 20-30% 30-40% >=40% Total
>=40% 0.1% *2.09% *14.78% *6.5% 0.6% 24.0%
30-40% 0.2% *1.4% *11.3% *4.78% 0.2% 17.9%
20-30% 0.1% *2.59% *17.9% *7.67% 0.5% 28.8%
0-20% 0.2% *1.77% *13.09% *5.54% 0.3% 20.9%
<0% 0.1% 0.9% *4.73% *2.68% 0.1% 8.5%
Total 0.6% 8.7% 61.8% 27.2% 1.7% 100%

Note: Note: We queried the transaction data from 2019 and 2024 for the survey respondents to determine the lowest category level in the Numerator hierarchy for items purchased in both years. For each respondent, we calculated the 2024 share of average spend for each lowest category among those purchased in both 2019 and 2024. This share was then multiplied by the category's 2019–2024 percent change in average spend (a proxy for price) across the full Numerator panel, yielding the respondent's average experienced inflation. These values were then rounded to align with the survey response format (increments of 5 between -50 and 50).* indicates level of intensity based on the respective percentage whenever the value is above 1 percent.

Source: Authors' calculations using the survey data from Numerator.

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Figure 3: Sentiment in 2024 compared with 2019 by the difference between the change in annual income and change in self-reported spending
  -70% + -70% to -60% -60% to -50% -50% to -40% -40% to -30% -30% to -20% -20% to -10% -10% to 0% 0% to 10% 10% to 20% 20% to 30% 30%+
We are doing much better now 2.53% 1.89% 5.82% 4.61% 3.80% 5.46% 5.82% 10.62% 11.73% 16.59% 15.71% 26.53%
We are doing better now 3.85% 3.61% 3.91% 3.82% 5.44% 8.13% 13.13% 18.11% 21.74% 25.75% 24.70% 20.81%
We are doing about the same now 9.94% 12.79% 16.20% 25.16% 28.65% 31.90% 42.12% 45.28% 42.00% 36.90% 34.57% 29.08%
We are doing worse now 46.18% 52.94% 57.26% 43.93% 47.49% 43.13% 31.29% 20.92% 18.08% 15.67% 18.41% 15.31%
We are doing much worse now 37.51% 28.76% 16.81% 22.48% 14.61% 11.38% 7.64% 5.06% 6.44% 5.10% 6.61% 8.27%

Notes: Sentiment by the difference between change in annual income and change in overall spending, between 2019 and 2024. Sentiment is percent of respondents that responded to 'How are you and your household doing in today's economy relative to how you were doing in 2019, before the pandemic?' choosing one of the options amongst the listed five: we are doing i) much better now; ii) better now; iii) about the same now; iv) worse now and v) much worse now. Decomposed by the difference between change in annual income and reported change in overall spending in question 'How much more or less would you say you and your household are spending now for the items you buy compared with 2019?'. percent Change in Annual Income calculation: ["About how much do you and your household earn now per year?" divided by "About how much did you and your household earn per year in 2019?" – 1] * 100. Columns include values from the lower bound up to (but excluding) the upper bound, but "30 percent to 50 percent" column includes 50 percent. The width of the bins is proportional to the share of the percent change amongst the full set of respondents. 17.6 percent of responses dropped due to inconsistent income entries. Columns include values from the lower bound up to (but excluding) the upper bound. Height of the bins based on how consumers said they were doing in today's economy relative to 2019. Green bars indicate the sentiment response of 'We are doing much better now'. Blue bars indicate 'We are doing better now.' Grey bars indicate 'We are doing about the same now'. Purple bars indicate 'We are doing worse now.' Red bars indicate 'We are doing much worse now.' Key identifies in order from top to bottom.

Source: Authors' calculations using the survey data from Numerator.

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Figure 4. Change in real (inflation-adjusted) annual spending between 2019 and 2024 by sentiment and income

Upper panel: Spending by Sentiment, percent Change in Annual Spending 2019 vs 2024.

Box plots. Spending change between 2019 to 2024 by Sentiment. Five sentiment categories, Much worse, Worse, About the same, Better and Much better. Y-axis goes from -100 percent to 150 percent. Mean of spending by each sentiment is indicated by ‘x’ and medians are shown by the lines in the boxes. Spending is smaller for ‘Much worse’ with its mean and median smaller than other categories. The whiskers which indicate the minimum and maximum values excluding outliers go roughly from -70 percent to 80 percent. Spending by ‘Worse’ has a similar mean of 16.3 percent to ‘Much worse’. The whiskers go roughly from -70 percent to 90 percent. ‘About the same’ has higher mean (20.4 percent) and median (9.1 percent) than ‘Much worse’ and ‘Worse’. Whiskers go roughly from -70 percent to 100 percent. ‘Better’ has higher mean (26.8 percent) but a similar median to ‘About the same’. Whiskers go from -80 percent to 120 percent. Finally, ‘Much better’ has the highest median (9.0 percent) but much higher mean (31.8) with whiskers go roughly from -100 percent to 140 percent.

Lower panel: Spending by Income, percent Change in Annual Spending 2019 vs 2024.

Box plots. Spending change between 2019 to 2024 by Income. Three income change categories, Less income, same income, more income. Y-axis goes from -100 percent to 150 percent. Mean of spending by each sentiment is indicated by ‘x’ and medians are shown by the lines in the boxes. Spending is smaller for ‘Less Income’ with its mean (7.8 percent) and median (0.7 percent) smaller than other categories. The whiskers which indicate the minimum and maximum values excluding outliers go roughly from -60 percent to 60 percent. Spending by ‘Same income’ has a higher mean (23.5 percent) and median (9 percent) to ‘Less Income’. The whiskers go roughly from -70 percent to 110 percent. ‘More income’ has the highest mean (33.7 percent) and a slightly median than ‘Same income’. Whiskers go from -60 percent to 190 percent.

Notes: Spending by sentiment (top) and spending by change in income (bottom). The boxes represent the first and the third quartiles (25th and 75th percentiles respectively) of spending, and the lines in the boxes show the median spending. Average spending is marked with an 'x'. Whiskers extend to minimum and maximum values, excluding outliers. Spending and income are both adjusted for inflation. Inflation adjustment uses 2024 year-end Consumer Price Index (CPI) (FRED: CPIAUCSL) when 2019 year-end CPI is indexed to 100. By using a consistent inflation adjustment, we abstract from potentially differing inflation experiences of different income groups in this analysis. Sentiment is based on responses to 'How are you and your household doing in today's economy relative to how you were doing in 2019, before the pandemic?' choosing one of the options among the following five: we are doing i) much better now; ii) better now; iii) about the same now; iv) worse now and v) much worse now. % Change in Annual Income calculation: ["About how much do you and your household earn now per year?" divided by "About how much did you and your household earn per year in 2019?" – 1] * 100. "Same Income" category includes percent changes between –5 percent and +5 percent. "Less Income" is income changes that are smaller than –5 percent and "More Income" is more than +5 percent.

Source: Authors' calculations using Numerator survey and panel data.

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Figure 5: How many changes have people made to their spending between 2019 and 2024? Those who are doing worse say they’ve done more to cut back

Number of Yes Responses to Cutting Back

  3 2 1 0
We are doing better or much better now 15% 23% 35% 37%
We are doing about the same now 27% 33% 33% 47%
We are doing worse or much worse now 58% 44% 32% 16%

Note: 0 (n=949), 1 (n=2,325), 2 (n=2,695), 3 (n=3,249); Sentiment split by count of "Yes" responses to the following answers: (1) "I now clip coupons" or "I now try to buy items more when they are on sale or promotion"; (2) "I now shop at lower-price retailers" or "I now shop more at multiple different retailers to try to find the best prices for items I buy" or "I now do more research to see where items I buy are less expensive"; (3) "I now try to buy items in bulk to save money" or "I now try to buy more store brands rather than brand name items". The widths of the bins are proportional to the share of respondents who answered "Yes" to zero, one, two, or all three of these groups of questions. Key identifies in order from top to bottom.

Source: Authors' calculations using the survey data from Numerator.

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Figure 6: Changes that may have impacted household incomes between 2019 and 2024: Taking on additional jobs or working more hours is associated with doing worse now than in 2019
  Did you or anyone in your household change jobs in order to earn a higher wage? Did you or anyone in your household take on additional jobs or now regularly work more hours per week?
Yes No Yes No
We are doing better or much better now 36.99% 19.48% 26.10% 24.20%
We are doing about the same now 24.38% 36.15% 24.53% 39.11%
We are doing worse or much worse now 38.63% 44.37% 49.42% 36.74%

Note: Responses to change jobs (n=2,538); take on additional jobs or regularly working more hours (n=3,945); split by: "How are you and your household doing in today's economy relative to how you were doing in 2019, before the pandemic?" The width of the bins is proportional to the share of the respective answer amongst the full set of respondents. Height of the bins based on how consumers said they were doing in today's economy relative to 2019. Key identifies in order from top to bottom.

Source: Authors' calculations using the survey data from Numerator.

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Last Update: April 25, 2025