Accessible Version
Worker Churn at Establishments over the Business Cycle, Accessible Data
Chart 1. Quit-initiated ($$QC$$) and Employer-initiated ($$EC$$) Churn
The x-axis of the chart starts at the beginning of 2001 and ends shortly after the beginning of 2016. The y-axis denotes churn rates, starting from zero and going to a maximum of 3 percent. The bottom blue horizontal line, which is solid, shows the baseline aggregate rate of EC over time. Two additional lines represent the upper and lower bounds of EC. The upper bound line is a few tenths of a percentage point higher than the baseline and the lower bound line is a few tenths of a percentage point lower. All three lines are relatively flat, fluctuating between 0.5 percent and just over 1 percent. There is very little evidence of cyclicality. The top black horizontal line, which is dashed, shows the baseline aggregate rate of QC over time. Two additional lines represent the upper and lower bounds of QC. The upper bound line is a few tenths of a percentage point higher than the baseline and the lower bound line is a few tenths of a percentage point lower. The baseline level starts around 2.4 percent. The lines all increase from 2004 to 2005, then decrease from 2006 to 2009, and then increase slowly; they end around 2 percent in 2016. All three lines appear to have business cycle dynamics, reaching a cyclical high in 2005 (around 2.5 percent) and a cyclical low (around 1.3 percent) in 2009.
Source: Author's calculations from JOLTS monthly microdata. 12-month averages.
All measures are weighted by establishments’ employment.
Note: Light-color lines represent upper and lower bounds of $$QC$$ and $$EC$$.
Chart 2. Gross Churn ($$GC$$), Job Creation ($$JC$$), and Job Destruction ($$JD$$)
The x-axis of the chart starts at the beginning of 2001 and ends shortly after the beginning of 2016. The y-axis denotes job flow rates, starting from zero and going to a maximum of 4 percent. The bottom light grey ticked line represents JC, which appears fairly flat around 2 percent. The thin navy line represents JD. It also remains around 2 percent except in the 2008-2010 period, when it spikes to 2.5 percent. The thick purple line represents GC. It has a cyclical pattern similar to that of QC in the previous chart; its high is around 3.5 percent in 2005 and its low is around 2.2 percent in 2010. It increases from 2002 to 2005, then decreases from 2005 to 2009, and then increases slowly afterwards (ending at around 3 percent in 2016).
Source: Author's calculations of JOLTS microdata. 12-month averages. All measures are weighted by establishments’ employment.
All measures are weighted by establishments’ employment.