Accessible Version
BAT Signals from Asset Markets: Estimating the U.S. Dollar Response to a Destination-Based Cash-Flow Tax Accessible Data
Figure 1: Change in the Probability of BAT Passage Relative to November 1, 2016
| Date | Change in Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-Nov-16 | 0.246 |
| 2-Nov-16 | -0.079 |
| 3-Nov-16 | 0.094 |
| 4-Nov-16 | 0.659 |
| 7-Nov-16 | 0.712 |
| 8-Nov-16 | 2.389 |
| 9-Nov-16 | 3.490 |
| 10-Nov-16 | 4.000 |
| 11-Nov-16 | 3.918 |
| 14-Nov-16 | 5.044 |
| 15-Nov-16 | 5.171 |
| 16-Nov-16 | 4.167 |
| 17-Nov-16 | 3.593 |
| 18-Nov-16 | 3.453 |
| 21-Nov-16 | 2.473 |
| 22-Nov-16 | 0.601 |
| 23-Nov-16 | 0.710 |
| 24-Nov-16 | 0.896 |
| 25-Nov-16 | 1.097 |
| 28-Nov-16 | 1.591 |
| 29-Nov-16 | 2.347 |
| 30-Nov-16 | 2.829 |
| 1-Dec-16 | 2.087 |
| 2-Dec-16 | 1.709 |
| 5-Dec-16 | 1.546 |
| 6-Dec-16 | 1.388 |
| 7-Dec-16 | 0.940 |
| 8-Dec-16 | 1.806 |
| 9-Dec-16 | 2.350 |
| 12-Dec-16 | 2.923 |
| 13-Dec-16 | 2.653 |
| 14-Dec-16 | 3.072 |
| 15-Dec-16 | 4.368 |
| 16-Dec-16 | 4.657 |
| 19-Dec-16 | 5.262 |
| 20-Dec-16 | 4.737 |
| 21-Dec-16 | 4.761 |
| 22-Dec-16 | 7.458 |
| 23-Dec-16 | 8.391 |
| 26-Dec-16 | 9.254 |
| 27-Dec-16 | 10.068 |
| 28-Dec-16 | 9.724 |
| 29-Dec-16 | 10.006 |
| 30-Dec-16 | 10.860 |
| 2-Jan-17 | 11.792 |
| 3-Jan-17 | 12.775 |
| 4-Jan-17 | 12.580 |
| 5-Jan-17 | 12.038 |
| 6-Jan-17 | 12.336 |
| 9-Jan-17 | 11.940 |
| 10-Jan-17 | 11.455 |
| 11-Jan-17 | 11.643 |
| 12-Jan-17 | 10.519 |
| 13-Jan-17 | 10.720 |
| 16-Jan-17 | 10.928 |
| 17-Jan-17 | 11.068 |
| 18-Jan-17 | 12.185 |
| 19-Jan-17 | 12.570 |
| 20-Jan-17 | 13.479 |
| 23-Jan-17 | 13.042 |
| 24-Jan-17 | 13.019 |
| 25-Jan-17 | 14.159 |
| 26-Jan-17 | 14.327 |
| 27-Jan-17 | 15.499 |
| 30-Jan-17 | 14.288 |
| 31-Jan-17 | 14.110 |
| 1-Feb-17 | 14.925 |
| 2-Feb-17 | 14.601 |
| 3-Feb-17 | 16.834 |
| 6-Feb-17 | 17.624 |
| 7-Feb-17 | 17.107 |
| 8-Feb-17 | 15.324 |
| 9-Feb-17 | 14.581 |
| 10-Feb-17 | 14.377 |
| 13-Feb-17 | 15.710 |
| 14-Feb-17 | 15.427 |
| 15-Feb-17 | 15.246 |
| 16-Feb-17 | 15.599 |
| 17-Feb-17 | 15.186 |
| 20-Feb-17 | 14.708 |
| 21-Feb-17 | 14.299 |
| 22-Feb-17 | 14.513 |
| 23-Feb-17 | 15.764 |
| 24-Feb-17 | 14.980 |
| 27-Feb-17 | 15.135 |
| 28-Feb-17 | 16.361 |
| 1-Mar-17 | 17.560 |
| 2-Mar-17 | 16.489 |
| 3-Mar-17 | 17.827 |
| 6-Mar-17 | 18.078 |
| 7-Mar-17 | 18.223 |
| 8-Mar-17 | 17.232 |
| 9-Mar-17 | 17.386 |
| 10-Mar-17 | 17.722 |
| 13-Mar-17 | 17.541 |
| 14-Mar-17 | 17.033 |
| 15-Mar-17 | 17.827 |
| 16-Mar-17 | 17.095 |
| 17-Mar-17 | 16.692 |
| 20-Mar-17 | 18.093 |
| 21-Mar-17 | 17.853 |
| 22-Mar-17 | 17.519 |
| 23-Mar-17 | 17.627 |
| 24-Mar-17 | 17.696 |
| 27-Mar-17 | 17.339 |
| 28-Mar-17 | 17.308 |
| 29-Mar-17 | 15.610 |
| 30-Mar-17 | 15.706 |
| 31-Mar-17 | 15.146 |
| 3-Apr-17 | 15.816 |
| 4-Apr-17 | 15.785 |
| 5-Apr-17 | 15.766 |
| 6-Apr-17 | 15.458 |
| 7-Apr-17 | 15.291 |
| 10-Apr-17 | 13.772 |
| 11-Apr-17 | 13.564 |
| 12-Apr-17 | 13.957 |
| 13-Apr-17 | 14.098 |
| 14-Apr-17 | 14.261 |
| 17-Apr-17 | 14.362 |
| 18-Apr-17 | 13.891 |
| 19-Apr-17 | 13.776 |
| 20-Apr-17 | 13.415 |
| 21-Apr-17 | 12.626 |
| 24-Apr-17 | 12.961 |
| 25-Apr-17 | 12.898 |
| 26-Apr-17 | 11.967 |
| 27-Apr-17 | 10.848 |
| 28-Apr-17 | 10.573 |
| 1-May-17 | 10.457 |
| 2-May-17 | 10.268 |
| 3-May-17 | 9.813 |
The dashed vertical lines represent dates. The first labelled "U.S. Election" is November 8, 2016. The second labeled "March 7" is March 7, 2017, the peak probability of BAT passage according to our model. The third labeled "White House Tax Plan Announcement" is April 26, 2017.
Last Update:
October 23, 2018