Accessible Version

What Equity Markets Said about Brexit-related Costs to U.S. Banks Accessible Data

Figure 1: U.S. banks in the United Kingdom

Breakdown of U.S. banks' foreign claims by counterparty country, as of December 31, 2016

  Billions of Dollars
Total 2957.152
Great Britain 411.082
Germany 220.875
France 182.301
Japan 382.97
Caymen Islands 273.207
other 1486.717

Notes: Data as of 2016:Q4. Source: FFIEC 009, staff calculations.

Breakdown of U.S. banks' claims on U.K. residents by sector, as of December 31, 2016

  Percent
Nonbank Financial Corp. 46%
Public (Government) 24%
Nonfinancial Corp. 15%
Banks 10%
Households 5%
Total $411 billion

Notes: Data as of 2016:Q4. Source: FFIEC 009, staff calculations.

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Figure 2: Betting odds of a vote for Brexit and U.S. bank stock prices

date Chances of "Leave" (Left axis), Percent U.S. Bank Stock Index (Right axis), Indexed to 100
4-Jan-16 34.5 100.0
5-Jan-16 34.5 99.9
6-Jan-16 34.0 98.2
7-Jan-16 33.9 95.0
8-Jan-16 33.9 93.1
11-Jan-16 34.0 93.3
12-Jan-16 34.0 94.1
13-Jan-16 33.5 90.9
14-Jan-16 33.4 91.9
15-Jan-16 33.6 89.2
18-Jan-16 33.4 89.2
19-Jan-16 33.4 88.7
20-Jan-16 33.2 87.1
21-Jan-16 33.2 85.9
22-Jan-16 33.2 87.3
25-Jan-16 33.1 84.3
26-Jan-16 33.2 86.1
27-Jan-16 33.1 86.6
28-Jan-16 32.8 87.2
29-Jan-16 32.6 89.6
1-Feb-16 32.5 88.7
2-Feb-16 31.4 85.8
3-Feb-16 31.4 86.0
4-Feb-16 30.8 87.2
5-Feb-16 30.7 86.1
8-Feb-16 31.5 83.4
9-Feb-16 31.0 83.6
10-Feb-16 31.1 82.7
11-Feb-16 31.2 79.2
12-Feb-16 31.3 79.2
15-Feb-16 31.2 79.2
16-Feb-16 32.1 79.2
17-Feb-16 32.3 86.4
18-Feb-16 32.3 85.0
19-Feb-16 32.3 85.3
22-Feb-16 32.6 87.2
23-Feb-16 32.3 84.6
24-Feb-16 31.3 83.9
25-Feb-16 31.3 85.1
26-Feb-16 30.7 86.5
29-Feb-16 30.2 84.5
1-Mar-16 30.2 88.4
2-Mar-16 29.9 90.0
3-Mar-16 29.9 91.1
4-Mar-16 28.0 91.8
7-Mar-16 27.8 91.5
8-Mar-16 28.3 89.2
9-Mar-16 29.1 88.8
10-Mar-16 28.9 89.1
11-Mar-16 29.0 91.7
14-Mar-16 29.2 91.3
15-Mar-16 31.4 91.1
16-Mar-16 31.6 90.3
17-Mar-16 31.5 90.7
18-Mar-16 31.5 92.3
21-Mar-16 31.2 92.6
22-Mar-16 31.2 92.3
23-Mar-16 34.2 91.5
24-Mar-16 33.9 90.9
25-Mar-16 33.3 90.9
28-Mar-16 33.2 90.7
29-Mar-16 33.1 90.0
30-Mar-16 33.1 90.7
31-Mar-16 33.0 90.1
1-Apr-16 32.9 90.7
4-Apr-16 32.8 90.5
5-Apr-16 32.8 88.8
6-Apr-16 32.7 89.6
7-Apr-16 32.8 87.0
8-Apr-16 32.8 87.4
11-Apr-16 33.0 88.1
12-Apr-16 32.9 89.6
13-Apr-16 33.0 93.1
14-Apr-16 33.0 94.0
15-Apr-16 32.8 93.5
18-Apr-16 34.3 94.2
19-Apr-16 34.7 95.9
20-Apr-16 34.7 97.6
21-Apr-16 34.7 97.3
22-Apr-16 32.3 98.4
25-Apr-16 28.4 97.8
26-Apr-16 26.1 98.8
27-Apr-16 27.4 98.9
28-Apr-16 27.8 97.7
29-Apr-16 28.9 96.9
2-May-16 28.6 97.7
3-May-16 29.8 95.8
4-May-16 29.5 93.8
5-May-16 29.1 93.5
6-May-16 29.1 93.8
9-May-16 29.0 93.3
10-May-16 28.9 95.1
11-May-16 29.5 94.5
12-May-16 29.6 94.1
13-May-16 29.5 92.6
16-May-16 26.7 93.4
17-May-16 26.9 93.2
18-May-16 24.9 96.8
19-May-16 23.2 96.0
20-May-16 21.5 96.5
23-May-16 21.1 96.2
24-May-16 20.5 97.8
25-May-16 20.5 99.6
26-May-16 18.4 98.7
27-May-16 18.9 99.6
30-May-16 19.2 99.6
31-May-16 24.1 99.4
1-Jun-16 24.5 99.7
2-Jun-16 26.2 100.1
3-Jun-16 28.3 97.9
6-Jun-16 31.5 99.1
7-Jun-16 29.0 98.4
8-Jun-16 27.8 98.5
9-Jun-16 27.8 97.2
10-Jun-16 25.8 95.7
13-Jun-16 30.8 94.7
14-Jun-16 36.8 92.4
15-Jun-16 37.5 92.6
16-Jun-16 37.5 92.2
17-Jun-16 36.4 92.6
20-Jun-16 29.8 93.2
21-Jun-16 22.9 93.5
22-Jun-16 24.1 93.3
23-Jun-16 18.9 96.1
24-Jun-16 94.0 89.1

Notes: The "Leave" series represents the average implied probability of Brexit based on bookmaker quotes available on Oddschecker. The U.S. Bank Stock Index includes 24 banking companies weighted by capitalization and is produced by KBW. Source: Oddschecker, Google Finance.

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Figure 3: Average changes in U.S. bank stock prices and changes in Brexit odds

Normalized stock price
  Days with an increase in Brexit odds Days with a decrease in Brexit odds
Banks with above-median U.K. exposures 0.9788 1.0035
Banks with below-median U.K. exposures 0.9790 1.0022

Source: Bloomberg, FFIEC 009, staff calculations.

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Last Update: February 02, 2018