Accessible Version

Accessible Version

Figure 1. Outlook for 2019 has changed only modestly over the year

Percent

As of Date Real GDP Growth Unemployment Rate PCE Inflation Core PCE Inflation
11/1/2018 2.41 3.6 2.1 2.1
11/1/2019 2.17 3.6 1.5 1.8

Note: Data are from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) projections as of November 2018 and as of November 2019. GDP is gross domestic product; PCE is personal consumption expenditures; core PCE excludes food and energy items. GDP growth and inflation projections are four−quarter percent changes through 2019:Q4; the unemployment rate projection is for 2019:Q4.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Survey of Professional Forecasters (retrieved from https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research−and−data/real−time−center/survey−of−professional−forecasters), and Real−Time Data Set: Full−Time Series History (retrieved from https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research−and−data/real−time−center/real−time−data).

Figure 2. Estimates of the neutral rate of interest and the natural rate of unemployment have been falling

Percent

  Neutral Real Rate of Interest (r*) Natural Rate of Unemployment (u*)
Period FOMC Blue Chip CBO FOMC Blue Chip CBO
2012:Q1 2.25 n.a. 1.7 5.60 5.80 5.5
2012:Q2 2.25 1.2 n.a. 5.60 n.a. n.a.
2012:Q3 2.13 n.a. 1.7 5.60 n.a. 5.4
2012:Q4 2.00 1.4 n.a. 5.60 5.80 n.a.
2013:Q1 2.00 n.a. 1.9 5.60 5.60 5.5
2013:Q2 2.00 1.4 n.a. 5.60 n.a. n.a.
2013:Q3 1.88 n.a. n.a. 5.50 n.a. n.a.
2013:Q4 1.75 1.4 n.a. 5.50 5.60 n.a.
2014:Q1 1.75 n.a. 1.6 5.40 5.30 5.5
2014:Q2 1.75 1.5 n.a. 5.35 n.a. n.a.
2014:Q3 1.75 n.a. 1.5 5.35 n.a. 5.5
2014:Q4 1.75 1.3 n.a. 5.35 5.40 n.a.
2015:Q1 1.63 n.a. 1.4 5.10 5.12 5.4
2015:Q2 1.63 1.2 n.a. 5.10 n.a. n.a.
2015:Q3 1.50 n.a. 1.4 5.05 n.a. 5.1
2015:Q4 1.50 1.1 n.a. 4.90 5.00 n.a.
2016:Q1 1.25 n.a. 1.2 4.80 4.86 4.9
2016:Q2 1.00 1.0 n.a. 4.80 n.a. n.a.
2016:Q3 0.88 n.a. 0.9 4.80 n.a. 4.7
2016:Q4 1.00 0.7 n.a. 4.80 4.84 n.a.
2017:Q1 1.00 n.a. 0.8 4.70 4.74 4.7
2017:Q2 1.00 0.8 0.8 4.60 n.a. 4.7
2017:Q3 0.80 n.a. n.a. 4.60 n.a. n.a.
2017:Q4 0.80 0.8 n.a. 4.60 4.63 n.a.
2018:Q1 0.90 n.a. n.a. 4.50 4.55 n.a.
2018:Q2 0.90 0.8 0.8 4.50 n.a. 4.6
2018:Q3 1.00 n.a. 0.8 4.50 n.a. 4.6
2018:Q4 0.80 0.88 n.a. 4.40 4.40 n.a.
2019:Q1 0.80 n.a. 0.8 4.30 4.32 4.6
2019:Q2 0.50 0.65 n.a. 4.20 n.a. n.a.
2019:Q3 0.50 n.a. 0.5 4.20 n.a. 4.6
2019:Q4 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.09 n.a.

Note: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) data are quarterly, extend through September 2019, and are projections of these measures over the longer run. The Blue Chip data are biannual, extend through June 2019 for r* and October 2019 for u*, and are projections for 6 to 10 years in the future. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) data are biannual and extend through August 2019. For the left panel, the projections are for 10 years in the future; the right panel shows the natural rate projection for the current quarter at the time of the projection. The neutral real interest rate is the 3-month Treasury bill rate projection (CBO) or the federal funds rate projection (FOMC and Blue Chip) minus the source’s inflation projection.

Source: For FOMC, Summary of Economic Projections, available on the Board’s website at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm; for Blue Chip, Wolters Kluwer, Blue Chip Economic Indicators and Blue Chip Financial Forecasts; for CBO, Congressional Budget Office (The Budget and Economic Outlook) and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (ALFRED).

Figure 3. Overall and core personal consumption expenditures inflation

Quarterly

4-quarter percent change

Period Overall Core
95:Q1 2.25 2.28
95:Q2 2.28 2.2
95:Q3 1.96 2.12
95:Q4 1.93 2.11
96:Q1 2.00 1.98
96:Q2 2.09 1.86
96:Q3 2.11 1.84
96:Q4 2.35 1.91
97:Q1 2.24 1.91
97:Q2 1.81 1.95
97:Q3 1.65 1.73
97:Q4 1.28 1.47
98:Q1 0.84 1.37
98:Q2 0.77 1.16
98:Q3 0.81 1.28
98:Q4 0.76 1.28
99:Q1 1.02 1.31
99:Q2 1.39 1.33
99:Q3 1.61 1.32
99:Q4 1.94 1.45
00:Q1 2.53 1.68
00:Q2 2.42 1.67
00:Q3 2.52 1.78
00:Q4 2.48 1.81
01:Q1 2.32 1.84
01:Q2 2.34 1.9
01:Q3 1.77 1.72
01:Q4 1.27 1.74
02:Q1 0.78 1.45
02:Q2 1.07 1.65
02:Q3 1.51 1.88
02:Q4 1.91 1.73
03:Q1 2.44 1.67
03:Q2 1.69 1.39
03:Q3 1.82 1.3
03:Q4 1.82 1.36
04:Q1 1.95 1.74
04:Q2 2.62 2.04
04:Q3 2.50 2.00
04:Q4 2.90 2.13
05:Q1 2.64 2.22
05:Q2 2.55 2.09
05:Q3 3.13 2.09
05:Q4 3.05 2.20
06:Q1 2.99 2.06
06:Q2 3.20 2.32
06:Q3 2.84 2.49
06:Q4 1.87 2.26
07:Q1 2.32 2.43
07:Q2 2.32 2.08
07:Q3 2.16 2.03
07:Q4 3.34 2.25
08:Q1 3.23 2.08
08:Q2 3.46 2.19
08:Q3 3.94 2.17
08:Q4 1.39 1.56
09:Q1 -0.06 1.09
09:Q2 -0.63 1.06
09:Q3 -0.97 0.95
09:Q4 1.32 1.53
10:Q1 2.27 1.73
10:Q2 1.93 1.5
10:Q3 1.41 1.28
10:Q4 1.24 0.92
11:Q1 1.78 1.11
11:Q2 2.66 1.47
11:Q3 2.98 1.83
11:Q4 2.71 1.92
12:Q1 2.52 2.11
12:Q2 1.76 1.94
12:Q3 1.56 1.74
12:Q4 1.78 1.81
13:Q1 1.45 1.54
13:Q2 1.28 1.44
13:Q3 1.4 1.54
13:Q4 1.25 1.58
14:Q1 1.36 1.51
14:Q2 1.77 1.67
14:Q3 1.63 1.66
14:Q4 1.09 1.45
15:Q1 0.18 1.3
15:Q2 0.20 1.26
15:Q3 0.21 1.23
15:Q4 0.25 1.2
16:Q1 0.74 1.43
16:Q2 0.84 1.51
16:Q3 0.97 1.66
16:Q4 1.51 1.77
17:Q1 1.99 1.77
17:Q2 1.62 1.6
17:Q3 1.62 1.48
17:Q4 1.83 1.66
18:Q1 1.94 1.81
18:Q2 2.27 2.02
18:Q3 2.24 2.04
18:Q4 1.91 1.93
19:Q1 1.38 1.62
19:Q2 1.42 1.56
19:Q3 1.41 1.70

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Figure 4. Declines in the unemployment rate have been widespread in the current expansion

By race and ethnicity

Quarterly

Percent

Period Black Hispanic White Asian
92:Q1 13.93 11.17 6.47 -
92:Q2 14.47 11.6 6.67 -
92:Q3 14.17 11.73 6.7 -
92:Q4 14.23 11.77 6.5 -
93:Q1 13.77 11.37 6.2 -
93:Q2 13.5 10.53 6.17 -
93:Q3 12.5 10.17 6 -
93:Q4 12.03 10.83 5.9 -
94:Q1 12.77 10.17 5.7 -
94:Q2 11.63 10.23 5.37 -
94:Q3 10.9 10 5.2 -
94:Q4 10.67 9.23 4.87 -
95:Q1 10.03 9.37 4.73 -
95:Q2 10.47 9.27 4.97 -
95:Q3 11.03 9.17 4.9 -
95:Q4 9.97 9.4 4.93 -
96:Q1 10.4 9.53 4.83 -
96:Q2 10.43 9.33 4.77 -
96:Q3 10.6 8.6 4.53 -
96:Q4 10.6 7.97 4.57 -
97:Q1 10.67 8.3 4.47 -
97:Q2 10.43 7.8 4.2 -
97:Q3 9.47 7.5 4.2 -
97:Q4 9.67 7.37 3.97 -
98:Q1 9.3 6.97 3.97 -
98:Q2 8.93 7 3.8 -
98:Q3 9.13 7.33 3.87 -
98:Q4 8.3 7.33 3.83 -
99:Q1 8 6.4 3.73 -
99:Q2 7.63 6.77 3.77 -
99:Q3 8.3 6.57 3.67 -
99:Q4 8.07 6.07 3.5 -
00:Q1 7.9 5.8 3.5 -
00:Q2 7.5 5.63 3.43 -
00:Q3 7.63 5.83 3.53 -
00:Q4 7.33 5.6 3.47 -
01:Q1 8.07 6.03 3.67 -
01:Q2 8.07 6.43 3.9 -
01:Q3 8.67 6.47 4.2 -
01:Q4 9.8 7.37 4.9 -
02:Q1 10.13 7.43 5.03 -
02:Q2 10.47 7.5 5.13 -
02:Q3 9.77 7.43 5.13 -
02:Q4 10.6 7.87 5.1 -
03:Q1 10.5 7.8 5.13 5.93
03:Q2 11.1 7.97 5.4 6.3
03:Q3 10.97 7.67 5.37 6.1
03:Q4 10.57 7.2 5.1 5.6
04:Q1 10.13 7.43 5 4.6
04:Q2 10.03 6.87 4.97 4.63
04:Q3 10.6 6.8 4.67 4.03
04:Q4 10.73 6.7 4.57 4.4
05:Q1 10.67 6.03 4.53 4.1
05:Q2 10.2 6.03 4.37 4
05:Q3 9.43 5.9 4.27 4.27
05:Q4 9.63 6.07 4.3 3.53
06:Q1 9.3 5.37 4.07 3.17
06:Q2 9 5.23 4.1 3.43
06:Q3 9.1 5.33 4.03 2.8
06:Q4 8.4 4.97 3.93 2.8
07:Q1 8.1 5.2 4.03 2.9
07:Q2 8.37 5.63 4 3.13
07:Q3 7.9 5.77 4.2 3.2
07:Q4 8.67 5.97 4.23 3.7
08:Q1 8.9 6.47 4.43 3.2
08:Q2 9.2 7.2 4.73 3.93
08:Q3 10.63 7.83 5.33 4.07
08:Q4 11.67 8.97 6.27 4.6
09:Q1 13.37 11.03 7.57 6.43
09:Q2 14.93 11.93 8.43 7.23
09:Q3 14.97 12.7 8.83 7.77
09:Q4 15.87 12.67 9.13 7.73
10:Q1 16.47 12.83 8.87 8.03
10:Q2 15.77 12.27 8.77 7.4
10:Q3 15.83 12.17 8.57 7.27
10:Q4 15.77 12.7 8.67 7.3
11:Q1 15.7 11.9 8.07 6.93
11:Q2 16.33 11.67 8.03 6.73
11:Q3 16.07 11.2 7.93 7.53
11:Q4 15.2 11.2 7.7 6.87
12:Q1 13.87 10.73 7.37 6.43
12:Q2 13.77 10.7 7.37 5.67
12:Q3 13.87 10 7.17 5.57
12:Q4 13.8 9.83 6.87 5.93
13:Q1 13.5 9.57 6.87 5.83
13:Q2 13.63 9.03 6.67 4.83
13:Q3 12.8 9.13 6.4 5.27
13:Q4 12.33 8.7 6.1 4.97
14:Q1 12 8.13 5.77 5.37
14:Q2 11.33 7.57 5.33 5.43
14:Q3 11.33 7.3 5.23 4.37
14:Q4 10.7 6.6 4.87 4.77
15:Q1 10.1 6.77 4.8 3.73
15:Q2 9.9 6.8 4.7 4.1
15:Q3 9.27 6.57 4.43 3.63
15:Q4 8.93 6.3 4.4 3.83
16:Q1 8.77 5.57 4.27 3.83
16:Q2 8.6 5.87 4.3 3.8
16:Q3 8.27 5.83 4.33 3.93
16:Q4 8.07 5.77 4.27 3.07
17:Q1 7.87 5.43 4.07 3.5
17:Q2 7.57 5.03 3.8 3.5
17:Q3 7.37 5.13 3.73 3.8
17:Q4 7.1 4.87 3.63 2.83
18:Q1 7.1 5 3.6 3.03
18:Q2 6.3 4.77 3.5 2.73
18:Q3 6.3 4.57 3.33 3.2
18:Q4 6.27 4.43 3.37 3.03
19:Q1 6.83 4.63 3.4 3.1
19:Q2 6.3 4.23 3.23 2.27
19:Q3 5.67 4.2 3.3 2.7

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

By education (ages 25 and over)

Quarterly

Percent

Period Less than high school degree High school degree Some college Bachelor's degree
92:Q1 11 6.9 5.63 3.07
92:Q2 11.63 6.87 5.73 3.2
92:Q3 11.8 6.87 5.63 3.1
92:Q4 11.47 6.7 5.6 3.33
93:Q1 11.03 6.43 5.47 3.17
93:Q2 10.97 6.37 5.2 3.03
93:Q3 10.53 6.2 5.27 2.73
93:Q4 10.73 6.07 5 2.87
94:Q1 10.53 5.9 4.73 2.83
94:Q2 9.7 5.43 4.57 2.53
94:Q3 9.73 5.2 4.3 2.57
94:Q4 9.13 4.8 4.17 2.33
95:Q1 8.7 4.73 3.93 2.4
95:Q2 8.73 4.93 4.13 2.6
95:Q3 9.2 4.63 3.97 2.47
95:Q4 9.2 4.67 3.9 2.37
96:Q1 8.93 4.77 3.8 2.3
96:Q2 9.13 4.73 3.8 2.27
96:Q3 8.5 4.53 3.7 2.17
96:Q4 8.17 4.57 3.7 2.27
97:Q1 8.63 4.5 3.5 2.07
97:Q2 8.37 4.27 3.23 2.07
97:Q3 7.77 4.17 3.2 2.1
97:Q4 7.57 3.97 3.1 1.8
98:Q1 7.07 4.07 3.17 1.87
98:Q2 7.13 3.87 2.9 1.7
98:Q3 7.07 4.03 2.87 1.73
98:Q4 6.97 3.9 2.93 1.87
99:Q1 6.9 3.5 2.97 1.87
99:Q2 6.83 3.6 2.77 1.97
99:Q3 6.97 3.6 2.9 1.7
99:Q4 6.27 3.37 2.63 1.7
00:Q1 6.33 3.37 2.8 1.7
00:Q2 6.47 3.37 2.63 1.57
00:Q3 6.27 3.53 2.73 1.83
00:Q4 6.27 3.53 2.57 1.53
01:Q1 7 3.77 2.83 1.73
01:Q2 6.77 3.8 2.97 2.13
01:Q3 7.23 4.3 3.23 2.33
01:Q4 7.97 4.87 4.17 2.83
02:Q1 8.2 5.33 4.27 2.87
02:Q2 8.4 5.47 4.67 2.93
02:Q3 8.27 5.1 4.47 2.9
02:Q4 8.87 5.13 4.73 2.93
03:Q1 8.77 5.37 4.73 3.03
03:Q2 8.97 5.67 4.87 3.03
03:Q3 8.9 5.37 4.93 3.17
03:Q4 8.53 5.4 4.63 3.07
04:Q1 8.83 5.07 4.5 2.9
04:Q2 8.7 5.2 4.07 2.83
04:Q3 8.33 4.87 4.13 2.63
04:Q4 8.17 4.8 4.23 2.5
05:Q1 7.77 4.77 4.07 2.4
05:Q2 7.63 4.57 3.9 2.37
05:Q3 7.73 4.8 3.63 2.23
05:Q4 7.37 4.7 3.87 2.23
06:Q1 7 4.3 3.63 2.17
06:Q2 7 4.27 3.7 2.13
06:Q3 6.77 4.4 3.57 1.97
06:Q4 6.37 4.23 3.4 1.83
07:Q1 7.03 4.2 3.67 1.93
07:Q2 6.8 4.2 3.5 1.97
07:Q3 7.13 4.5 3.53 2.07
07:Q4 7.57 4.6 3.53 2.13
08:Q1 7.83 4.83 3.8 2.07
08:Q2 8.17 5.03 4.2 2.23
08:Q3 9.37 5.8 4.83 2.63
08:Q4 10.73 7.07 5.47 3.3
09:Q1 13.2 8.63 7.1 4.1
09:Q2 15.23 9.73 7.87 4.67
09:Q3 15.27 9.93 8.13 4.87
09:Q4 14.97 10.63 8.73 4.8
10:Q1 15.33 10.63 8.37 4.9
10:Q2 14.5 10.77 8.23 4.6
10:Q3 14.4 9.9 8.63 4.53
10:Q4 15.13 9.87 8.3 4.8
11:Q1 14.13 9.63 7.83 4.33
11:Q2 14.53 9.83 7.87 4.43
11:Q3 14.3 9.27 8.37 4.2
11:Q4 13.33 8.97 7.8 4.27
12:Q1 12.97 8.3 7.27 4.2
12:Q2 12.67 8.3 7.53 3.97
12:Q3 11.97 8.53 6.83 4.07
12:Q4 11.97 8.1 6.77 3.87
13:Q1 11.47 7.9 6.57 3.83
13:Q2 11.1 7.5 6.47 3.87
13:Q3 10.8 7.5 6.1 3.63
13:Q4 10.47 7.13 6.33 3.47
14:Q1 9.53 6.4 5.97 3.37
14:Q2 9.03 6.2 5.47 3.27
14:Q3 9.07 5.87 5.33 3.07
14:Q4 8.43 5.57 4.93 3
15:Q1 8.37 5.37 5 2.63
15:Q2 8.47 5.53 4.43 2.67
15:Q3 8.03 5.43 4.3 2.47
15:Q4 6.97 5.43 4.33 2.53
16:Q1 7.17 5.23 4.2 2.53
16:Q2 7.57 5.2 4.07 2.47
16:Q3 7.43 5.13 4.2 2.53
16:Q4 7.63 5.2 3.87 2.5
17:Q1 7.2 5 3.83 2.43
17:Q2 6.4 4.63 3.83 2.33
17:Q3 6.6 4.63 3.7 2.33
17:Q4 5.83 4.3 3.63 2.1
18:Q1 5.57 4.37 3.47 2.2
18:Q2 5.63 4.1 3.3 2.13
18:Q3 5.43 3.87 3.3 2.07
18:Q4 5.77 3.77 3.13 2.1
19:Q1 5.63 3.77 3.33 2.2
19:Q2 5.37 3.63 2.97 2.1
19:Q3 5.1 3.6 3.07 2.1

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 5. Prime-age labor force participation rate has moved up since 2015

Quarterly

Percent

Period Total Men Women
90:Q1 83.73 93.83 74.03
90:Q2 83.47 93.37 73.97
90:Q3 83.4 93.2 74
90:Q4 83.43 93.23 73.9
91:Q1 83.37 93.3 73.87
91:Q2 83.5 93.17 74.2
91:Q3 83.37 93 74.03
91:Q4 83.33 92.83 74.13
92:Q1 83.47 92.9 74.43
92:Q2 83.8 93.17 74.8
92:Q3 83.73 93.13 74.7
92:Q4 83.47 92.77 74.53
93:Q1 83.2 92.47 74.3
93:Q2 83.4 92.63 74.4
93:Q3 83.47 92.63 74.7
93:Q4 83.57 92.5 74.97
94:Q1 83.4 91.9 75.17
94:Q2 83.13 91.57 75
94:Q3 83.37 91.5 75.5
94:Q4 83.53 91.9 75.43
95:Q1 83.53 91.93 75.43
95:Q2 83.5 91.73 75.53
95:Q3 83.4 91.43 75.67
95:Q4 83.43 91.3 75.83
96:Q1 83.5 91.57 75.77
96:Q2 83.63 91.6 75.97
96:Q3 83.93 91.9 76.27
96:Q4 84.1 91.97 76.5
97:Q1 83.97 91.87 76.47
97:Q2 83.97 91.67 76.53
97:Q3 84.37 91.93 77.07
97:Q4 84.1 91.8 76.63
98:Q1 84.1 91.9 76.53
98:Q2 83.93 91.73 76.33
98:Q3 84.13 91.77 76.63
98:Q4 84.13 91.83 76.7
99:Q1 84.33 92.17 76.77
99:Q2 84.1 91.77 76.73
99:Q3 83.97 91.5 76.73
99:Q4 84.1 91.53 76.93
00:Q1 84.37 92.07 77
00:Q2 84.2 91.63 77.03
00:Q3 83.8 91.43 76.43
00:Q4 83.77 91.4 76.43
01:Q1 84.1 91.6 76.87
01:Q2 83.7 91.37 76.3
01:Q3 83.53 91.13 76.2
01:Q4 83.6 91.17 76.2
02:Q1 83.57 91.23 76.2
02:Q2 83.47 91.17 76
02:Q3 83.2 91.03 75.67
02:Q4 83.07 90.73 75.63
03:Q1 83 90.37 75.9
03:Q2 83.2 90.67 76
03:Q3 82.93 90.67 75.5
03:Q4 82.83 90.7 75.2
04:Q1 82.77 90.43 75.3
04:Q2 82.8 90.43 75.4
04:Q3 82.8 90.53 75.23
04:Q4 82.63 90.3 75.13
05:Q1 82.7 90.43 75.2
05:Q2 82.73 90.53 75.17
05:Q3 82.87 90.67 75.3
05:Q4 82.7 90.3 75.3
06:Q1 82.9 90.63 75.4
06:Q2 82.8 90.57 75.33
06:Q3 82.93 90.43 75.6
06:Q4 83 90.67 75.53
07:Q1 83.27 91.37 75.4
07:Q2 82.97 90.9 75.2
07:Q3 82.87 90.5 75.43
07:Q4 82.9 90.6 75.43
08:Q1 83.27 91 75.67
08:Q2 83.1 90.53 75.9
08:Q3 83.13 90.57 75.83
08:Q4 82.93 90.2 75.87
09:Q1 82.73 89.83 75.83
09:Q2 82.87 90 75.87
09:Q3 82.7 89.9 75.57
09:Q4 82.3 89.43 75.3
10:Q1 82.37 89.3 75.53
10:Q2 82.37 89.57 75.3
10:Q3 81.97 89.27 74.87
10:Q4 81.9 88.8 75.13
11:Q1 81.67 88.7 74.83
11:Q2 81.7 88.87 74.7
11:Q3 81.5 88.63 74.6
11:Q4 81.47 88.6 74.47
12:Q1 81.5 88.8 74.5
12:Q2 81.43 88.73 74.43
12:Q3 81.43 88.6 74.53
12:Q4 81.4 88.6 74.53
13:Q1 81.03 88.4 73.93
13:Q2 81.13 88.6 73.9
13:Q3 81.07 88.4 74
13:Q4 80.8 88.23 73.7
14:Q1 81.03 88.2 74.13
14:Q2 80.83 88.07 73.93
14:Q3 80.9 88.3 73.8
14:Q4 80.9 88.13 73.87
15:Q1 80.9 88.47 73.63
15:Q2 80.97 88.33 73.83
15:Q3 80.67 88.17 73.43
15:Q4 80.9 88.17 73.8
16:Q1 81.23 88.6 74.13
16:Q2 81.2 88.53 74.13
16:Q3 81.33 88.5 74.4
16:Q4 81.47 88.53 74.57
17:Q1 81.57 88.63 74.73
17:Q2 81.63 88.47 75
17:Q3 81.77 88.57 75.1
17:Q4 81.77 88.73 75.03
18:Q1 81.97 89.17 75.07
18:Q2 81.93 89.03 75.03
18:Q3 81.97 88.77 75.37
18:Q4 82.27 89 75.77
19:Q1 82.53 89.43 75.87
19:Q2 82.17 88.9 75.63
19:Q3 82.4 89 75.93

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 6. U.S. prime-age labor force participation rate now lags many other economies

Percent

  1995 2018
Sweden 89.55102 91.5
Iceland 92.48918 90.9
Switzerland 86.43918 90.8
Portugal 83.08117 89.8
Czech Republic 89.21971 89.3
Austria 83.4818 88.5
Luxembourg 73.75483 88.4
Estonia 89.3677 88.3
France 86.04551 88.1
Finland 87.62704 87.8
Germany 83.12402 87.7
Japan 81.43611 87.4
New Zealand 81.50165 87.4
Netherlands 79.88065 87
Canada 83.29602 87
Hungary 77.59 87
Spain 74.40889 86.9
Slovak Republic 88.40381 86.5
Denmark 87.05227 86.5
Norway 85.9283 86.3
United Kingdom 83.26771 86.3
Poland 84.01884 85.2
Greece 74.17079 85
Belgium 80.39482 85
Australia 80.37993 84.4
Ireland 72.75887 83.2
Israel 77.69944 83.1
OECD countries 79.86571 82.4
UNITED STATES 83.4643 82.1
Korea 75.3567 79.3
Italy 71.82607 77.9
Mexico 67.32984 73.9
Turkey 63.79756 68

Note: The 2018 bar and 1995 dot series are red for the United States.

Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, "Labour Force Statistics by Sex and Age - Indicators," OECD.Stat, https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=LFS_SEXAGE_I_R (Accessed on 25 November 2019).

Figure 7. Wages have been growing faster since 2015, particularly for lower-paying jobs

Monthly

Percent

Period Overall Lowest quartile of wages
Jan-05 3.5 3.3
Feb-05 3.5 3.3
Mar-05 3.5 3.3
Apr-05 3.6 3.4
May-05 3.6 3.5
Jun-05 3.6 3.5
Jul-05 3.7 3.5
Aug-05 3.7 3.6
Sep-05 3.7 3.5
Oct-05 3.8 3.6
Nov-05 3.8 3.7
Dec-05 3.9 3.8
Jan-06 3.9 3.8
Feb-06 3.9 3.8
Mar-06 3.9 3.9
Apr-06 4 3.9
May-06 4 3.8
Jun-06 3.9 3.9
Jul-06 3.9 3.9
Aug-06 3.9 3.8
Sep-06 3.9 3.9
Oct-06 3.8 3.7
Nov-06 3.8 3.8
Dec-06 3.8 3.8
Jan-07 3.9 3.8
Feb-07 3.9 3.9
Mar-07 4 4
Apr-07 4 4
May-07 4 4.1
Jun-07 4 4.1
Jul-07 4.1 4.2
Aug-07 4.1 4.3
Sep-07 4.2 4.5
Oct-07 4.2 4.6
Nov-07 4.2 4.6
Dec-07 4.2 4.6
Jan-08 4.1 4.6
Feb-08 4.2 4.6
Mar-08 4.1 4.5
Apr-08 4.1 4.5
May-08 4.1 4.6
Jun-08 4.1 4.7
Jul-08 4.1 4.7
Aug-08 4.1 4.5
Sep-08 4 4.4
Oct-08 4 4.3
Nov-08 4 4.3
Dec-08 4 4.1
Jan-09 3.9 4
Feb-09 3.8 3.9
Mar-09 3.8 3.8
Apr-09 3.7 3.7
May-09 3.7 3.7
Jun-09 3.5 3.5
Jul-09 3.4 3.3
Aug-09 3.3 3.2
Sep-09 3.1 3.2
Oct-09 3 3.1
Nov-09 2.8 2.9
Dec-09 2.6 2.8
Jan-10 2.5 2.7
Feb-10 2.4 2.6
Mar-10 2.3 2.5
Apr-10 2.1 2.4
May-10 2 2.1
Jun-10 1.9 2.2
Jul-10 1.8 2.1
Aug-10 1.8 2
Sep-10 1.8 1.9
Oct-10 1.7 1.8
Nov-10 1.7 1.8
Dec-10 1.8 1.8
Jan-11 1.8 1.7
Feb-11 1.8 1.8
Mar-11 1.8 1.6
Apr-11 1.8 1.6
May-11 1.9 1.6
Jun-11 1.9 1.4
Jul-11 1.9 1.4
Aug-11 2 1.5
Sep-11 1.9 1.5
Oct-11 2 1.5
Nov-11 2 1.3
Dec-11 2 1.3
Jan-12 2 1.3
Feb-12 2 1.1
Mar-12 2 1.1
Apr-12 2.1 1.2
May-12 2.1 1.2
Jun-12 2.1 1.4
Jul-12 2.1 1.3
Aug-12 2 1.2
Sep-12 2.1 1.2
Oct-12 2.1 1.3
Nov-12 2.1 1.4
Dec-12 2.2 1.5
Jan-13 2.2 1.5
Feb-13 2.2 1.4
Mar-13 2.2 1.5
Apr-13 2.2 1.4
May-13 2.2 1.4
Jun-13 2.2 1.3
Jul-13 2.2 1.4
Aug-13 2.3 1.5
Sep-13 2.2 1.5
Oct-13 2.3 1.4
Nov-13 2.2 1.4
Dec-13 2.2 1.4
Jan-14 2.2 1.6
Feb-14 2.3 1.8
Mar-14 2.3 1.9
Apr-14 2.3 2
May-14 2.3 2
Jun-14 2.3 2
Jul-14 2.3 2
Aug-14 2.3 2
Sep-14 2.4 2.1
Oct-14 2.5 2.3
Nov-14 2.5 2.5
Dec-14 2.6 2.5
Jan-15 2.6 2.6
Feb-15 2.7 2.6
Mar-15 2.7 2.8
Apr-15 2.9 2.9
May-15 2.9 3.1
Jun-15 3 3.3
Jul-15 3.1 3.6
Aug-15 3.1 3.5
Sep-15 3.1 3.5
Oct-15 3.1 3.6
Nov-15 3.1 3.5
Dec-15 3.1 3.5
Jan-16 3.1 3.4
Feb-16 3.2 3.6
Mar-16 3.1 3.5
Apr-16 3.1 3.6
May-16 3.2 3.6
Jun-16 3.2 3.8
Jul-16 3.2 3.7
Aug-16 3.3 3.8
Sep-16 3.4 4
Oct-16 3.5 4.1
Nov-16 3.5 4.1
Dec-16 3.5 4.2
Jan-17 3.5 4.2
Feb-17 3.5 4.1
Mar-17 3.5 4.2
Apr-17 3.5 4.2
May-17 3.5 4.1
Jun-17 3.4 3.9
Jul-17 3.5 4
Aug-17 3.5 4
Sep-17 3.4 4
Oct-17 3.3 3.8
Nov-17 3.3 3.7
Dec-17 3.3 3.7
Jan-18 3.3 3.7
Feb-18 3.2 3.7
Mar-18 3.2 3.7
Apr-18 3.2 3.8
May-18 3.2 3.8
Jun-18 3.3 4
Jul-18 3.2 3.9
Aug-18 3.2 4
Sep-18 3.2 4
Oct-18 3.3 4.2
Nov-18 3.4 4.3
Dec-18 3.5 4.4
Jan-19 3.5 4.5
Feb-19 3.5 4.5
Mar-19 3.5 4.4
Apr-19 3.6 4.4
May-19 3.6 4.4
Jun-19 3.7 4.5
Jul-19 3.7 4.5
Aug-19 3.7 4.4
Sep-19 3.7 4.4
Oct-19 3.7 4.4

Note: Median wage change from 12 months earlier; plotted as a 12-month moving average.

Source: Calculations from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, https://www.atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker.

Last Update: April 27, 2021