Appendix A: Supervisory Scenarios
This appendix includes the adverse and severely adverse scenarios provided by the Federal Reserve.
It is important to note that the adverse and severely adverse scenarios are not forecasts but rather are hypothetical scenarios designed to assess the strength of banking organizations and their resilience to adverse economic environments.
Table A.1. Historical data: Domestic variables, Q1:2000-Q4:2016
Percent, unless otherwise indicated.
| Date | Real GDP growth | Nominal GDP growth | Real dispo- sable income growth |
Nominal dispo- sable income growth |
Unem- ployment rate |
CPI inflation rate |
3-month Treasury rate |
5-year Treasury yield | 10-year Treasury yield | BBB corporate yield | Mortgage rate |
Prime rate |
Level | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Total Stock Market Index | House Price Index |
Com- mercial Real Estate Price Index |
Market Volatility Index | |||||||||||||
| Q1 2000 | 1.2 | 4.3 | 8.1 | 11.8 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 14,296 | 102 | 125 | 27.0 |
| Q2 2000 | 7.8 | 10.2 | 4.2 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 13,619 | 105 | 124 | 33.5 |
| Q3 2000 | 0.5 | 3.1 | 4.8 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 8.1 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 13,613 | 107 | 137 | 21.9 |
| Q4 2000 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 12,176 | 110 | 141 | 31.7 |
| Q1 2001 | -1.1 | 1.4 | 3.5 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 10,646 | 112 | 139 | 32.8 |
| Q2 2001 | 2.1 | 5.1 | -0.3 | 1.6 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 11,407 | 114 | 139 | 34.7 |
| Q3 2001 | -1.3 | 0.0 | 9.8 | 10.1 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 9,563 | 116 | 141 | 43.7 |
| Q4 2001 | 1.1 | 2.3 | -4.9 | -4.6 | 5.5 | -0.3 | 1.9 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 10,708 | 118 | 136 | 35.3 |
| Q1 2002 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 10.1 | 10.9 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 10,776 | 120 | 137 | 26.1 |
| Q2 2002 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 9,384 | 123 | 136 | 28.4 |
| Q3 2002 | 2.0 | 3.8 | -0.5 | 1.5 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 7,774 | 126 | 139 | 45.1 |
| Q4 2002 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 8,343 | 129 | 142 | 42.6 |
| Q1 2003 | 2.1 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 8,052 | 132 | 148 | 34.7 |
| Q2 2003 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 6.1 | -0.7 | 1.0 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 9,342 | 135 | 149 | 29.1 |
| Q3 2003 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 9,650 | 138 | 147 | 22.7 |
| Q4 2003 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 5.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 10,800 | 143 | 146 | 21.1 |
| Q1 2004 | 2.3 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 11,039 | 148 | 153 | 21.6 |
| Q2 2004 | 3.0 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 11,145 | 154 | 160 | 20.0 |
| Q3 2004 | 3.7 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 10,894 | 159 | 172 | 19.3 |
| Q4 2004 | 3.5 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 11,951 | 165 | 176 | 16.6 |
| Q1 2005 | 4.3 | 8.3 | -3.8 | -1.8 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 11,637 | 172 | 176 | 14.6 |
| Q2 2005 | 2.1 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 11,857 | 179 | 182 | 17.7 |
| Q3 2005 | 3.4 | 7.3 | 2.1 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 12,283 | 185 | 187 | 14.2 |
| Q4 2005 | 2.3 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 12,497 | 191 | 195 | 16.5 |
| Q1 2006 | 4.9 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 11.5 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 13,122 | 194 | 200 | 14.6 |
| Q2 2006 | 1.2 | 4.5 | 0.6 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 12,809 | 193 | 209 | 23.8 |
| Q3 2006 | 0.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 13,322 | 192 | 219 | 18.6 |
| Q4 2006 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 4.4 | -1.6 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 14,216 | 191 | 217 | 12.7 |
| Q1 2007 | 0.2 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 14,354 | 189 | 227 | 19.6 |
| Q2 2007 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 15,163 | 183 | 236 | 18.9 |
| Q3 2007 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 15,318 | 178 | 249 | 30.8 |
| Q4 2007 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 0.3 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 14,754 | 172 | 251 | 31.1 |
| Q1 2008 | -2.7 | -0.5 | 2.9 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 13,284 | 165 | 240 | 32.2 |
| Q2 2008 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 8.7 | 13.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 13,016 | 157 | 224 | 24.1 |
| Q3 2008 | -1.9 | 0.8 | -8.9 | -5.1 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 11,826 | 149 | 233 | 46.7 |
| Q4 2008 | -8.2 | -7.7 | 2.6 | -3.2 | 6.9 | -8.9 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 9,057 | 142 | 223 | 80.9 |
| Q1 2009 | -5.4 | -4.5 | -0.8 | -3.0 | 8.3 | -2.7 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 8,044 | 137 | 209 | 56.7 |
| Q2 2009 | -0.5 | -1.2 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 9.3 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 9,343 | 137 | 178 | 42.3 |
| Q3 2009 | 1.3 | 1.2 | -4.3 | -1.9 | 9.6 | 3.5 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 10,813 | 138 | 154 | 31.3 |
| Q4 2009 | 3.9 | 5.2 | -0.5 | 2.2 | 9.9 | 3.2 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 11,385 | 138 | 155 | 30.7 |
| Q1 2010 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 9.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 12,032 | 138 | 150 | 27.3 |
| Q2 2010 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 9.6 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 10,646 | 137 | 165 | 45.8 |
| Q3 2010 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 9.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 11,814 | 135 | 167 | 32.9 |
| Q4 2010 | 2.5 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 9.5 | 3.3 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 13,131 | 133 | 173 | 23.5 |
| Q1 2011 | -1.5 | 0.2 | 5.0 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 13,909 | 132 | 180 | 29.4 |
| Q2 2011 | 2.9 | 6.0 | -0.6 | 3.5 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 13,843 | 132 | 177 | 22.7 |
| Q3 2011 | 0.8 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 4.3 | 9.0 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 11,677 | 132 | 177 | 48.0 |
| Q4 2011 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 8.6 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 13,019 | 132 | 188 | 45.5 |
| Q1 2012 | 2.7 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 9.2 | 8.3 | 2.4 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 14,627 | 134 | 188 | 23.0 |
| Q2 2012 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 8.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 14,100 | 137 | 189 | 26.7 |
| Q3 2012 | 0.5 | 2.7 | -0.2 | 1.1 | 8.0 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 14,895 | 140 | 197 | 20.5 |
| Q4 2012 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 10.9 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 14,835 | 143 | 198 | 22.7 |
| Q1 2013 | 2.8 | 4.4 | -15.7 | -14.5 | 7.7 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 16,396 | 147 | 202 | 19.0 |
| Q2 2013 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 7.5 | -0.5 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 16,771 | 151 | 213 | 20.5 |
| Q3 2013 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 7.3 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 17,718 | 154 | 224 | 17.0 |
| Q4 2013 | 4.0 | 6.1 | 0.9 | 2.6 | 6.9 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 19,413 | 158 | 229 | 20.3 |
| Q1 2014 | -1.2 | 0.6 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 19,711 | 160 | 229 | 21.4 |
| Q2 2014 | 4.0 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 20,569 | 161 | 239 | 17.0 |
| Q3 2014 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 20,459 | 163 | 245 | 17.0 |
| Q4 2014 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 5.7 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 21,425 | 165 | 253 | 26.3 |
| Q1 2015 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 5.6 | -2.9 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 21,708 | 168 | 262 | 22.4 |
| Q2 2015 | 2.6 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 21,631 | 170 | 266 | 18.9 |
| Q3 2015 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 19,959 | 172 | 272 | 40.7 |
| Q4 2015 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 21,101 | 174 | 277 | 24.4 |
| Q1 2016 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 4.9 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 21,179 | 177 | 278 | 28.1 |
| Q2 2016 | 1.4 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 21,621 | 179 | 283 | 25.8 |
| Q3 2016 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 22,469 | 182 | 290 | 18.1 |
| Q4 2016 | 3.1 | 6.1 | 1.6 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 23,277 | 183 | 294 | 22.5 |
Note: Refer to Notes Regarding Scenario Variables for more information on the definitions and sources of historical observations of the variables in the table.
Table A.2. Historical data: International variables, Q1:2000-Q4:2016
Percent, unless otherwise indicated.
| Date | Euro area real GDP growth | Euro area inflation | Euro area bilateral dollar exchange rate (USD/euro) |
Developing Asia real GDP growth |
Developing Asia inflation |
Developing Asia bilateral dollar exchange rate (F/USD, index) |
Japan real GDP growth |
Japan inflation | Japan bilateral dollar exchange rate (yen/USD) | U.K. real GDP growth |
U.K. inflation |
U.K. bilateral dollar exchange rate (USD/pound) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2000 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 0.957 | 7.0 | 1.5 | 100.0 | 7.9 | -2.7 | 102.7 | 4.1 | 0.3 | 1.592 |
| Q2 2000 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.955 | 7.1 | -0.2 | 100.7 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 106.1 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 1.513 |
| Q3 2000 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 0.884 | 8.1 | 2.2 | 101.5 | 0.1 | -1.2 | 107.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.479 |
| Q4 2000 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 0.939 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 105.1 | 4.0 | -0.6 | 114.4 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 1.496 |
| Q1 2001 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.879 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 106.0 | 2.6 | -1.2 | 125.5 | 5.3 | 0.0 | 1.419 |
| Q2 2001 | 0.4 | 4.0 | 0.847 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 106.1 | -2.4 | -0.3 | 124.7 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.408 |
| Q3 2001 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 0.910 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 106.4 | -4.4 | -1.1 | 119.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 1.469 |
| Q4 2001 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 0.890 | 8.5 | 0.0 | 106.9 | -0.8 | -1.4 | 131.0 | 1.6 | -0.1 | 1.454 |
| Q1 2002 | 0.7 | 3.1 | 0.872 | 7.7 | 0.4 | 107.3 | 0.3 | -2.7 | 132.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.425 |
| Q2 2002 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 0.986 | 8.1 | 1.1 | 104.8 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 119.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 1.525 |
| Q3 2002 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.988 | 7.2 | 1.5 | 105.5 | 1.7 | -0.7 | 121.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 1.570 |
| Q4 2002 | 0.4 | 2.3 | 1.049 | 6.5 | 0.8 | 104.5 | 1.5 | -0.4 | 118.8 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 1.610 |
| Q1 2003 | -0.8 | 3.3 | 1.090 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 105.5 | -1.2 | -1.6 | 118.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 1.579 |
| Q2 2003 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1.150 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 104.0 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 119.9 | 3.7 | 0.2 | 1.653 |
| Q3 2003 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.165 | 14.3 | 0.1 | 102.6 | 1.7 | -0.7 | 111.4 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 1.662 |
| Q4 2003 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.260 | 13.0 | 5.5 | 103.4 | 4.3 | -0.6 | 107.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 1.784 |
| Q1 2004 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.229 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 101.4 | 3.5 | -0.9 | 104.2 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 1.840 |
| Q2 2004 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.218 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 102.8 | -0.3 | 1.1 | 109.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 1.813 |
| Q3 2004 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.242 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 102.7 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 110.2 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.809 |
| Q4 2004 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 1.354 | 6.4 | 0.8 | 98.9 | -1.6 | 1.7 | 102.7 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.916 |
| Q1 2005 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.297 | 10.6 | 2.9 | 98.6 | 2.2 | -2.7 | 107.2 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.889 |
| Q2 2005 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.210 | 8.6 | 1.5 | 98.9 | 3.6 | -1.0 | 110.9 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 1.793 |
| Q3 2005 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.206 | 9.3 | 2.3 | 98.6 | 3.9 | -1.0 | 113.3 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.770 |
| Q4 2005 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.184 | 11.7 | 1.7 | 98.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 117.9 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 1.719 |
| Q1 2006 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 1.214 | 11.0 | 2.4 | 96.8 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 117.5 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.739 |
| Q2 2006 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.278 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 96.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 114.5 | 0.9 | 3.0 | 1.849 |
| Q3 2006 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.269 | 10.3 | 2.1 | 96.4 | -0.7 | 0.4 | 118.0 | 0.6 | 3.3 | 1.872 |
| Q4 2006 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 1.320 | 11.2 | 3.7 | 94.6 | 4.5 | -0.6 | 119.0 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 1.959 |
| Q1 2007 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.337 | 13.9 | 3.6 | 94.0 | 3.6 | -0.7 | 117.6 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.969 |
| Q2 2007 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.352 | 10.5 | 4.9 | 91.9 | -0.4 | 0.4 | 123.4 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 2.006 |
| Q3 2007 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.422 | 8.7 | 7.5 | 90.6 | -1.2 | 0.3 | 115.0 | 3.1 | 0.3 | 2.039 |
| Q4 2007 | 2.2 | 4.9 | 1.460 | 12.8 | 6.0 | 89.4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 111.7 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 1.984 |
| Q1 2008 | 2.0 | 4.3 | 1.581 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 88.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 99.9 | 0.6 | 3.4 | 1.986 |
| Q2 2008 | -1.3 | 3.2 | 1.575 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 88.7 | -2.8 | 1.8 | 106.2 | -2.6 | 5.8 | 1.991 |
| Q3 2008 | -2.2 | 3.2 | 1.408 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 91.5 | -4.8 | 3.5 | 105.9 | -6.6 | 5.9 | 1.780 |
| Q4 2008 | -6.8 | -1.4 | 1.392 | 0.3 | -1.0 | 92.2 | -8.3 | -2.1 | 90.8 | -8.7 | 0.4 | 1.462 |
| Q1 2009 | -11.4 | -1.1 | 1.326 | 4.4 | -1.4 | 94.2 | -18.0 | -3.6 | 99.2 | -6.4 | -0.2 | 1.430 |
| Q2 2009 | -0.9 | 0.0 | 1.402 | 15.1 | 2.2 | 92.2 | 8.2 | -1.6 | 96.4 | -0.9 | 2.3 | 1.645 |
| Q3 2009 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.463 | 12.8 | 3.9 | 91.3 | -0.3 | -1.4 | 89.5 | 0.3 | 3.6 | 1.600 |
| Q4 2009 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.433 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 90.6 | 6.1 | -1.6 | 93.1 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 1.617 |
| Q1 2010 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.353 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 89.8 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 93.4 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 1.519 |
| Q2 2010 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.229 | 9.7 | 3.4 | 91.0 | 4.0 | -1.4 | 88.5 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.495 |
| Q3 2010 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.360 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 88.4 | 7.7 | -2.1 | 83.5 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.573 |
| Q4 2010 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.327 | 9.3 | 7.7 | 87.4 | -2.7 | 1.4 | 81.7 | 0.5 | 3.9 | 1.539 |
| Q1 2011 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 1.418 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 86.4 | -5.7 | 0.0 | 82.8 | 2.2 | 7.0 | 1.605 |
| Q2 2011 | 0.0 | 3.2 | 1.452 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 85.3 | -2.0 | -0.8 | 80.6 | 0.3 | 4.6 | 1.607 |
| Q3 2011 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 1.345 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 87.3 | 9.5 | 0.3 | 77.0 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 1.562 |
| Q4 2011 | -1.4 | 3.5 | 1.297 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 87.2 | -0.5 | -0.7 | 77.0 | 1.0 | 3.4 | 1.554 |
| Q1 2012 | -0.8 | 2.8 | 1.333 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 86.2 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 82.4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.599 |
| Q2 2012 | -1.3 | 2.3 | 1.267 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 88.0 | -1.6 | -1.6 | 79.8 | -0.3 | 1.9 | 1.569 |
| Q3 2012 | -0.6 | 1.6 | 1.286 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 86.3 | -1.8 | -1.8 | 77.9 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 1.613 |
| Q4 2012 | -1.7 | 2.4 | 1.319 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 85.9 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 86.6 | -0.9 | 4.2 | 1.626 |
| Q1 2013 | -1.2 | 1.3 | 1.282 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 86.1 | 5.1 | 0.6 | 94.2 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.519 |
| Q2 2013 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 1.301 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 87.1 | 4.3 | -0.2 | 99.2 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.521 |
| Q3 2013 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.354 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 86.7 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 98.3 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 1.618 |
| Q4 2013 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 1.378 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 85.7 | -0.8 | 3.1 | 105.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.657 |
| Q1 2014 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.378 | 6.4 | 1.4 | 86.8 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 103.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 1.668 |
| Q2 2014 | 0.7 | -0.1 | 1.369 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 86.7 | -7.1 | 7.7 | 101.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 1.711 |
| Q3 2014 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 1.263 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 87.0 | -0.8 | 1.6 | 109.7 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 1.622 |
| Q4 2014 | 1.8 | -0.4 | 1.210 | 5.6 | 1.2 | 88.1 | 2.1 | -0.3 | 119.9 | 3.4 | -0.4 | 1.558 |
| Q1 2015 | 3.3 | -0.8 | 1.074 | 6.2 | 0.8 | 88.1 | 6.3 | 0.4 | 120.0 | 1.0 | -1.2 | 1.485 |
| Q2 2015 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.115 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 88.3 | -0.5 | 0.3 | 122.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 1.573 |
| Q3 2015 | 1.1 | -0.3 | 1.116 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 90.9 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 119.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 1.512 |
| Q4 2015 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.086 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 92.2 | -1.8 | 0.1 | 120.3 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 1.475 |
| Q1 2016 | 2.0 | -1.2 | 1.139 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 91.7 | 2.8 | -0.1 | 112.4 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 1.438 |
| Q2 2016 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.103 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 94.0 | 1.8 | -1.3 | 102.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 1.324 |
| Q3 2016 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 1.124 | 6.6 | 1.2 | 93.6 | 1.3 | -0.8 | 101.2 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.302 |
| Q4 2016 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.055 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 97.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 116.8 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.234 |
Note: Refer to Notes Regarding Scenario Variables for more information on the definitions and sources of historical observations of the variables in the table.
Table A.3. Supervisory baseline scenario: Domestic variables, Q1:2017-Q1:2020
Percent, unless otherwise indicated.
| Date | Real GDP growth | Nominal GDP growth | Real dispo- sable income growth |
Nominal dispo- sable income growth |
Unem- ployment rate |
CPI inflation rate |
3-month Treasury rate |
5-year Treasury yield | 10-year Treasury yield | BBB corporate yield | Mortgage rate |
Prime rate |
Level | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Total Stock Market Index | House Price Index |
Com- mercial Real Estate Price Index |
Market Volatility Index | |||||||||||||
| Q1 2017 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 23,551 | 184 | 298 | 19.0 |
| Q2 2017 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 23,831 | 185 | 301 | 20.3 |
| Q3 2017 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 24,123 | 187 | 305 | 19.3 |
| Q4 2017 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 24,422 | 188 | 309 | 19.4 |
| Q1 2018 | 2.4 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 24,727 | 189 | 313 | 19.2 |
| Q2 2018 | 2.4 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 25,042 | 190 | 317 | 19.2 |
| Q3 2018 | 2.4 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 25,354 | 191 | 321 | 19.3 |
| Q4 2018 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 25,668 | 193 | 325 | 19.4 |
| Q1 2019 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 25,968 | 194 | 327 | 19.8 |
| Q2 2019 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 26,269 | 195 | 330 | 20.0 |
| Q3 2019 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 26,571 | 197 | 332 | 20.2 |
| Q4 2019 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 26,874 | 198 | 335 | 20.3 |
| Q1 2020 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 27,173 | 200 | 337 | 20.2 |
Note: Refer to Notes Regarding Scenario Variables for more information on the definitions and sources of historical observations of the variables in the table.
Table A.4. Supervisory baseline scenario: International variables, Q1:2017-Q1:2020
Percent, unless otherwise indicated.
| Date | Euro area real GDP growth | Euro area inflation | Euro area bilateral dollar exchange rate (USD/euro) |
Developing Asia real GDP growth |
Developing Asia inflation |
Developing Asia bilateral dollar exchange rate (F/USD, index) |
Japan real GDP growth |
Japan inflation | Japan bilateral dollar exchange rate (yen/USD) | U.K. real GDP growth |
U.K. inflation |
U.K. bilateral dollar exchange rate (USD/pound) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2017 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.050 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 97.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 116.4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.228 |
| Q2 2017 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.044 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 98.4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 116.0 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.222 |
| Q3 2017 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.039 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 98.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 115.6 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 1.216 |
| Q4 2017 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.034 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 99.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 115.2 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 1.210 |
| Q1 2018 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.036 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 99.7 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 115.6 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.222 |
| Q2 2018 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.039 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 100.0 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 116.1 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.234 |
| Q3 2018 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.041 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 100.3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 116.5 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.245 |
| Q4 2018 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.044 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 100.6 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 117.0 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.257 |
| Q1 2019 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.044 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 100.6 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 117.0 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.257 |
| Q2 2019 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.044 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 100.6 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 117.0 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.257 |
| Q3 2019 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.044 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 100.6 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 117.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.257 |
| Q4 2019 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.044 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 100.6 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 117.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.257 |
| Q1 2020 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.044 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 100.6 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 117.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.257 |
Note: Refer to Notes Regarding Scenario Variables for more information on the definitions and sources of historical observations of the variables in the table.
Table A.5. Supervisory adverse scenario: Domestic variables, Q1:2017-Q1:2020
Percent, unless otherwise indicated.
| Date | Real GDP growth | Nominal GDP growth | Real dispo- sable income growth |
Nominal dispo- sable income growth |
Unem- ployment rate |
CPI inflation rate |
3-month Treasury rate |
5-year Treasury yield | 10-year Treasury yield | BBB corporate yield | Mortgage rate |
Prime rate |
Level | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Total Stock Market Index | House Price Index |
Com- mercial Real Estate Price Index |
Market Volatility Index | |||||||||||||
| Q1 2017 | -1.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 15,960 | 181 | 291 | 37.1 |
| Q2 2017 | -2.8 | -0.7 | -0.6 | 1.1 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 15,042 | 179 | 283 | 32.7 |
| Q3 2017 | -2.0 | 0.0 | -0.5 | 1.1 | 6.3 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 14,290 | 176 | 275 | 34.4 |
| Q4 2017 | -1.5 | 0.5 | -0.5 | 1.2 | 6.8 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 13,982 | 173 | 267 | 32.0 |
| Q1 2018 | -0.5 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 7.1 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 14,367 | 170 | 259 | 28.5 |
| Q2 2018 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 2.4 | 7.3 | 2.0 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 15,001 | 166 | 254 | 25.8 |
| Q3 2018 | 1.4 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 7.4 | 2.0 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 15,693 | 163 | 250 | 23.6 |
| Q4 2018 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 3.4 | 7.3 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 16,603 | 161 | 249 | 21.6 |
| Q1 2019 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 3.5 | 7.2 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 17,519 | 161 | 249 | 20.1 |
| Q2 2019 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 7.1 | 2.0 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 18,514 | 161 | 251 | 18.7 |
| Q3 2019 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 19,243 | 162 | 255 | 18.2 |
| Q4 2019 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 6.9 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 20,025 | 163 | 259 | 17.6 |
| Q1 2020 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 6.8 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 20,867 | 164 | 262 | 17.3 |
Note: Refer to Notes Regarding Scenario Variables for more information on the definitions and sources of historical observations of the variables in the table.
Table A.6. Supervisory adverse scenario: International variables, Q1:2017-Q1:2020
Percent, unless otherwise indicated.
| Date | Euro area real GDP growth | Euro area inflation | Euro area bilateral dollar exchange rate (USD/euro) |
Developing Asia real GDP growth |
Developing Asia inflation |
Developing Asia bilateral dollar exchange rate (F/USD, index) |
Japan real GDP growth |
Japan inflation | Japan bilateral dollar exchange rate (yen/USD) | U.K. real GDP growth |
U.K. inflation |
U.K. bilateral dollar exchange rate (USD/pound) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2017 | -3.0 | 0.7 | 0.998 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 105.4 | -3.2 | -2.5 | 111.4 | -2.9 | 0.5 | 1.205 |
| Q2 2017 | -3.9 | 0.1 | 0.977 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 109.1 | -6.3 | -3.4 | 108.0 | -4.3 | 0.0 | 1.189 |
| Q3 2017 | -2.7 | 0.3 | 0.964 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 108.8 | -5.8 | -2.7 | 109.2 | -3.7 | 0.1 | 1.175 |
| Q4 2017 | -1.5 | 0.3 | 0.953 | 5.3 | -0.1 | 109.4 | -4.4 | -2.7 | 108.8 | -2.7 | 0.2 | 1.163 |
| Q1 2018 | -0.2 | 0.4 | 0.958 | 6.4 | 0.0 | 108.7 | -3.1 | -2.1 | 109.2 | -1.4 | 0.4 | 1.177 |
| Q2 2018 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.964 | 6.7 | 0.1 | 108.1 | -1.9 | -1.5 | 109.6 | -0.2 | 0.7 | 1.191 |
| Q3 2018 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.970 | 6.7 | 0.4 | 107.5 | -0.9 | -1.0 | 110.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.204 |
| Q4 2018 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.975 | 6.8 | 0.7 | 106.9 | -0.1 | -0.5 | 110.5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.217 |
| Q1 2019 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.979 | 6.8 | 1.0 | 106.2 | 0.5 | -0.2 | 110.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.218 |
| Q2 2019 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.982 | 6.9 | 1.3 | 105.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 110.8 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 1.218 |
| Q3 2019 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.986 | 7.0 | 1.6 | 105.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 111.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 1.218 |
| Q4 2019 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.989 | 7.0 | 1.9 | 104.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 111.4 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 1.218 |
| Q1 2020 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.991 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 104.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 111.6 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 1.218 |
Note: Refer to Notes Regarding Scenario Variables for more information on the definitions and sources of historical observations of the variables in the table.
Table A.7. Supervisory severely adverse scenario: Domestic variables, Q1:2017-Q1:2020
Percent, unless otherwise indicated.
| Date | Real GDP growth | Nominal GDP growth | Real dispo- sable income growth |
Nominal dispo- sable income growth |
Unem- ployment rate |
CPI inflation rate |
3-month Treasury rate |
5-year Treasury yield | 10-year Treasury yield | BBB corporate yield | Mortgage rate |
Prime rate |
Level | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Total Stock Market Index | House Price Index |
Com- mercial Real Estate Price Index |
Market Volatility Index | |||||||||||||
| Q1 2017 | -5.1 | -2.7 | -1.0 | 0.5 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 15,374 | 179 | 288 | 68.7 |
| Q2 2017 | -7.5 | -5.5 | -4.0 | -2.7 | 6.9 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 13,538 | 174 | 270 | 50.9 |
| Q3 2017 | -5.9 | -4.1 | -3.9 | -2.6 | 8.0 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 12,295 | 168 | 251 | 57.2 |
| Q4 2017 | -5.1 | -3.3 | -3.7 | -2.3 | 8.9 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 11,704 | 162 | 234 | 49.3 |
| Q1 2018 | -3.0 | -1.4 | -2.5 | -1.1 | 9.6 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 12,338 | 156 | 218 | 39.1 |
| Q2 2018 | 0.0 | 1.6 | -1.4 | 0.2 | 9.8 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 13,325 | 148 | 206 | 31.9 |
| Q3 2018 | 0.7 | 2.3 | -0.4 | 1.1 | 10.0 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 14,348 | 142 | 196 | 26.7 |
| Q4 2018 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 9.9 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 15,625 | 138 | 193 | 22.2 |
| Q1 2019 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 9.8 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 17,070 | 137 | 192 | 19.3 |
| Q2 2019 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 9.6 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 18,739 | 138 | 194 | 16.8 |
| Q3 2019 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 9.4 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 19,909 | 140 | 198 | 16.0 |
| Q4 2019 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 9.1 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 21,186 | 142 | 203 | 14.9 |
| Q1 2020 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 8.9 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 22,577 | 145 | 207 | 14.3 |
Note: Refer to Notes Regarding Scenario Variables for more information on the definitions and sources of historical observations of the variables in the table.
Table A.8. Supervisory severely adverse scenario: International variables, Q1:2017-Q1:2020
Percent, unless otherwise indicated.
| Date | Euro area real GDP growth | Euro area inflation | Euro area bilateral dollar exchange rate (USD/euro) |
Developing Asia real GDP growth |
Developing Asia inflation |
Developing Asia bilateral dollar exchange rate (F/USD, index) |
Japan real GDP growth |
Japan inflation | Japan bilateral dollar exchange rate (yen/USD) | U.K. real GDP growth |
U.K. inflation |
U.K. bilateral dollar exchange rate (USD/pound) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2017 | -6.0 | 0.6 | 0.959 | -0.1 | 0.5 | 107.4 | -4.3 | -3.1 | 113.0 | -4.7 | -0.1 | 1.179 |
| Q2 2017 | -7.0 | -0.2 | 0.928 | 0.4 | -0.5 | 112.1 | -7.8 | -4.1 | 110.4 | -6.6 | -0.8 | 1.154 |
| Q3 2017 | -5.7 | -1.0 | 0.928 | 2.2 | -1.2 | 114.3 | -9.2 | -4.6 | 109.5 | -6.1 | -1.1 | 1.141 |
| Q4 2017 | -4.7 | -1.5 | 0.929 | 3.4 | -1.6 | 115.8 | -9.5 | -4.9 | 108.0 | -5.0 | -1.0 | 1.126 |
| Q1 2018 | -2.9 | -1.5 | 0.949 | 5.1 | -1.6 | 114.5 | -7.7 | -4.2 | 108.1 | -3.1 | -0.6 | 1.142 |
| Q2 2018 | -1.5 | -1.3 | 0.964 | 5.9 | -1.3 | 113.2 | -5.5 | -3.5 | 108.2 | -1.4 | -0.1 | 1.158 |
| Q3 2018 | -0.3 | -0.9 | 0.975 | 6.2 | -1.0 | 112.0 | -3.6 | -2.8 | 108.4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.174 |
| Q4 2018 | 0.6 | -0.4 | 0.981 | 6.3 | -0.6 | 110.9 | -2.1 | -2.2 | 108.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 1.188 |
| Q1 2019 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.985 | 6.4 | -0.2 | 109.6 | -0.9 | -1.6 | 108.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 1.189 |
| Q2 2019 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.989 | 6.5 | 0.2 | 108.5 | 0.0 | -1.1 | 108.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 1.190 |
| Q3 2019 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.994 | 6.6 | 0.6 | 107.5 | 0.7 | -0.6 | 108.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 1.190 |
| Q4 2019 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.999 | 6.6 | 0.9 | 106.7 | 1.1 | -0.3 | 109.2 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 1.191 |
| Q1 2020 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 1.003 | 6.7 | 1.3 | 106.0 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 109.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 1.192 |
Note: Refer to Notes Regarding Scenario Variables for more information on the definitions and sources of historical observations of the variables in the table.
Notes Regarding Scenario Variables
Sources for data through 2016:Q4 (as released through 1/18/2017). The 2016:Q4 values of variables marked with an asterisk (*) are projected.
* U.S. real GDP growth: Percent change in real gross domestic product in chained dollars, expressed at an annualized rate, Bureau of Economic Analysis (NIPA table 1.1.6, line 1).
* U.S. nominal GDP growth: Percent change in nominal gross domestic product, expressed at an annualized rate, Bureau of Economic Analysis (NIPA table 1.1.5, line 1).
* U.S. real disposable income growth: Percent change in nominal disposable personal income, divided by the price index for personal consumption expenditures, expressed at an annualized rate, Bureau of Economic Analysis (NIPA table 2.1, line 27, and NIPA table 1.1.4, line 2).
* U.S. nominal disposable income growth: Percent change in nominal disposable personal income, expressed at an annualized rate, Bureau of Economic Analysis (NIPA table 2.1, line 27).
U.S. unemployment rate: Quarterly average of seasonally-adjusted monthly data for the unemployment rate of the civilian, noninstitutional population of age 16 years and older, Bureau of Labor Statistics (series LNS14000000).
U.S. CPI inflation: Percent change in the quarterly average of seasonally-adjusted monthly data for the consumer price index, expressed at an annualized rate, Bureau of Labor Statistics (series CUSR0000SA0).
U.S. 3-month Treasury rate: Quarterly average of 3-month Treasury bill secondary market rate on a discount basis, H.15 Release, Selected Interest Rates, Federal Reserve Board.
U.S. 5-year Treasury yield: Quarterly average of the yield on 5-year U.S. Treasury bonds, constructed for the FRB/U.S. model by Federal Reserve staff based on the Svensson smoothed term structure model; see Lars E. O. Svensson (1995), "Estimating Forward Interest Rates with the Extended Nelson-Siegel Method," Quarterly Review, no. 3, Sveriges Riksbank, pp. 13-26.
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: Quarterly average of the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds, constructed for the FRB/U.S. model by Federal Reserve staff based on the Svensson smoothed term structure model; see id.
U.S. BBB corporate yield: Quarterly average of the yield on 10-year BBB-rated corporate bonds, constructed for the FRB/U.S. model by Federal Reserve staff using a Nelson-Siegel smoothed yield curve model; see Charles R. Nelson and Andrew F. Siegel (1987), "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," Journal of Business, vol. 60, pp. 473-89). Data prior to 1997 is based on the WARGA database. Data after 1997 is based on the Merrill Lynch database.
U.S. mortgage rate: Staff calculations based on quarterly average of weekly series for the interest rate of a conventional, conforming, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, obtained from the Primary Mortgage Market Survey of the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation and other sources.
U.S. prime rate: Quarterly average of monthly series, H.15 Release, Selected Interest Rates, Federal Reserve Board.
U.S. Dow Jones Total Stock Market (Float Cap) Index: End of quarter value, Dow Jones.
* U.S. House Price Index: CoreLogic, index level, seasonally adjusted by Federal Reserve staff.
* U.S. Commercial Real Estate Price Index: From the Financial Accounts of the United States, Federal Reserve Board (Z.1 release); the series corresponds to the data for price indexes: Commercial Real Estate Price Index (series FL075035503.Q, divided by 1000).
U.S. Market Volatility Index (VIX): Chicago Board Options Exchange, converted to quarterly frequency by using the maximum close-of-day value in any quarter.
* Euro area real GDP growth: Percent change in real gross domestic product at an annualized rate, staff calculations based on Statistical Office of the European Communities via Haver, extended back using ECB Area Wide Model dataset (ECB Working Paper series no. 42).
Euro area inflation: Percent change in the quarterly average of the harmonized index of consumer prices at an annualized rate, staff calculations based on Statistical Office of the European Communities via Haver.
* Developing Asia real GDP growth: Percent change in real gross domestic product at an annualized rate, staff calculations based on Bank of Korea via Haver; Chinese National Bureau of Statistics via CEIC; Indian Central Statistical Organization via CEIC; Census and Statistics Department of Hong Kong via CEIC; and Taiwan Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting, and Statistics via CEIC.
* Developing Asia inflation: Percent change in the quarterly average of the consumer price index, or local equivalent, at an annualized rate, staff calculations based on Chinese National Bureau of Statistics via CEIC; Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation via Haver; Labour Bureau of India via CEIC; National Statistical Office of Korea via CEIC; Census and Statistic Department of Hong Kong via CEIC; and Taiwan Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting, and Statistics via CEIC.
* Japan real GDP growth: Percent change in gross domestic product at an annualized rate, Cabinet Office via Haver.
*Japan inflation: Percent change in the quarterly average of the consumer price index at an annualized rate, staff calculations based on Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications via Haver.
*U.K. real GDP growth: Percent change in gross domestic product at an annualized rate, Office for National Statistics via Haver.
U.K. inflation: Percent change in the quarterly average of the consumer price index at an annualized rate, staff calculations based on Office for National Statistics via Haver.
Exchange rates: End-of-quarter rates from the H.10 Release, Foreign Exchange Rates, Federal Reserve Board.