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Overview of financial system vulnerabilities

Asset valuations

  • Equity price-to-earnings ratios moved to the upper end of their historical distributions.
  • Corporate bond spreads fell to levels that are low relative to their historical averages.
  • Prices of residential real estate remained high relative to fundamentals.
  • Prices of commercial real estate declined amid deteriorating fundamentals.

Borrowing by businesses and households

  • The ratio of total private debt to gross domestic product (GDP) declined further, approaching its historical average.
  • The business debt-to-GDP ratio remained high, but business debt continued to decline in real terms amid subdued risky debt issuance. Firms' ability to service their debt remained robust.
  • Household debt was at modest levels relative to GDP and concentrated among prime-rated borrowers.

Leverage in the financial sector

  • The banking system remained sound and resilient, with risk-based capital ratios well above regulatory requirements.
  • Nonetheless, some banks continued to face sizable fair value losses on some fixed-rate assets held on their balance sheets.
  • Leverage increased from already elevated levels at the largest hedge funds.
  • Broker-dealer leverage remained near historically low levels.

Funding risks

  • Most domestic banks maintained high levels of liquid assets and stable funding.
  • However, concerns over uninsured deposits and other factors continued to generate funding pressures for a subset of banks.
  • Structural vulnerabilities persisted at money market funds, some other mutual funds, and stablecoins.
  • Life insurers continued to hold a high share of illiquid and risky assets.
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Survey of salient risks to the financial system

Survey respondents cited several emerging and existing events or conditions as presenting risks to the U.S. financial system and the broader global economy. For more information, see the box Survey of Salient Risks to Financial Stability.

  Persistent inflation; monetary tightening Policy uncertainty Commercial and residential real estate Banking-sector stress Fiscal debt sustainability
April 2024 72% of contacts surveyed 60% of contacts surveyed 56% of contacts surveyed 44% of contacts surveyed 40% of contacts surveyed
October 2023 72% of contacts surveyed 24% of contacts surveyed 72% of contacts surveyed 56% of contacts surveyed 44% of contacts surveyed
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Figure 1.1. Nominal Treasury yields remained close to the highest levels in the past 15 years

Percent, annual rate

Date 2-year 10-year
1997-01-01 6.01 6.58
1997-02-01 5.9 6.42
1997-03-01 6.22 6.69
1997-04-01 6.45 6.89
1997-05-01 6.28 6.71
1997-06-01 6.09 6.49
1997-07-01 5.89 6.22
1997-08-01 5.94 6.3
1997-09-01 5.88 6.21
1997-10-01 5.77 6.03
1997-11-01 5.71 5.88
1997-12-01 5.72 5.81
1998-01-01 5.36 5.54
1998-02-01 5.42 5.57
1998-03-01 5.56 5.65
1998-04-01 5.56 5.64
1998-05-01 5.59 5.65
1998-06-01 5.52 5.5
1998-07-01 5.46 5.46
1998-08-01 5.27 5.34
1998-09-01 4.67 4.81
1998-10-01 4.09 4.53
1998-11-01 4.54 4.83
1998-12-01 4.51 4.65
1999-01-01 4.62 4.72
1999-02-01 4.88 5
1999-03-01 5.05 5.23
1999-04-01 4.98 5.18
1999-05-01 5.25 5.54
1999-06-01 5.62 5.9
1999-07-01 5.55 5.79
1999-08-01 5.68 5.94
1999-09-01 5.66 5.92
1999-10-01 5.86 6.11
1999-11-01 5.86 6.03
1999-12-01 6.1 6.28
2000-01-01 6.44 6.66
2000-02-01 6.61 6.52
2000-03-01 6.53 6.26
2000-04-01 6.4 5.99
2000-05-01 6.81 6.44
2000-06-01 6.48 6.1
2000-07-01 6.34 6.05
2000-08-01 6.23 5.83
2000-09-01 6.08 5.8
2000-10-01 5.91 5.74
2000-11-01 5.88 5.72
2000-12-01 5.35 5.24
2001-01-01 4.76 5.16
2001-02-01 4.66 5.1
2001-03-01 4.34 4.89
2001-04-01 4.23 5.14
2001-05-01 4.26 5.39
2001-06-01 4.08 5.28
2001-07-01 4.04 5.24
2001-08-01 3.76 4.97
2001-09-01 3.12 4.73
2001-10-01 2.73 4.57
2001-11-01 2.78 4.65
2001-12-01 3.11 5.09
2002-01-01 3.03 5.04
2002-02-01 3.02 4.91
2002-03-01 3.56 5.28
2002-04-01 3.42 5.21
2002-05-01 3.26 5.16
2002-06-01 2.99 4.93
2002-07-01 2.56 4.65
2002-08-01 2.13 4.26
2002-09-01 2 3.87
2002-10-01 1.91 3.94
2002-11-01 1.92 4.05
2002-12-01 1.84 4.03
2003-01-01 1.74 4.05
2003-02-01 1.63 3.9
2003-03-01 1.57 3.81
2003-04-01 1.62 3.96
2003-05-01 1.42 3.57
2003-06-01 1.23 3.33
2003-07-01 1.47 3.98
2003-08-01 1.86 4.45
2003-09-01 1.71 4.27
2003-10-01 1.75 4.29
2003-11-01 1.93 4.3
2003-12-01 1.91 4.27
2004-01-01 1.76 4.15
2004-02-01 1.74 4.08
2004-03-01 1.58 3.83
2004-04-01 2.07 4.35
2004-05-01 2.53 4.72
2004-06-01 2.76 4.73
2004-07-01 2.64 4.5
2004-08-01 2.51 4.28
2004-09-01 2.53 4.13
2004-10-01 2.58 4.1
2004-11-01 2.85 4.19
2004-12-01 3.01 4.23
2005-01-01 3.22 4.22
2005-02-01 3.38 4.17
2005-03-01 3.73 4.5
2005-04-01 3.65 4.34
2005-05-01 3.64 4.14
2005-06-01 3.64 4
2005-07-01 3.87 4.18
2005-08-01 4.04 4.26
2005-09-01 3.95 4.2
2005-10-01 4.27 4.46
2005-11-01 4.42 4.54
2005-12-01 4.4 4.47
2006-01-01 4.4 4.42
2006-02-01 4.67 4.57
2006-03-01 4.73 4.72
2006-04-01 4.89 4.99
2006-05-01 4.97 5.11
2006-06-01 5.12 5.11
2006-07-01 5.12 5.09
2006-08-01 4.9 4.88
2006-09-01 4.77 4.72
2006-10-01 4.8 4.73
2006-11-01 4.74 4.6
2006-12-01 4.67 4.56
2007-01-01 4.88 4.76
2007-02-01 4.85 4.72
2007-03-01 4.57 4.56
2007-04-01 4.67 4.69
2007-05-01 4.77 4.75
2007-06-01 4.98 5.1
2007-07-01 4.82 5
2007-08-01 4.31 4.67
2007-09-01 4.01 4.52
2007-10-01 3.97 4.53
2007-11-01 3.34 4.15
2007-12-01 3.12 4.1
2008-01-01 2.48 3.74
2008-02-01 1.97 3.74
2008-03-01 1.62 3.51
2008-04-01 2.05 3.68
2008-05-01 2.45 3.88
2008-06-01 2.77 4.1
2008-07-01 2.57 4.01
2008-08-01 2.42 3.89
2008-09-01 2.08 3.69
2008-10-01 1.61 3.81
2008-11-01 1.21 3.53
2008-12-01 0.82 2.42
2009-01-01 0.81 2.52
2009-02-01 0.98 2.87
2009-03-01 0.93 2.82
2009-04-01 0.93 2.93
2009-05-01 0.93 3.29
2009-06-01 1.18 3.72
2009-07-01 1.02 3.56
2009-08-01 1.12 3.59
2009-09-01 0.96 3.4
2009-10-01 0.95 3.39
2009-11-01 0.8 3.4
2009-12-01 0.87 3.59
2010-01-01 0.93 3.73
2010-02-01 0.86 3.69
2010-03-01 0.96 3.73
2010-04-01 1.06 3.85
2010-05-01 0.83 3.42
2010-06-01 0.72 3.2
2010-07-01 0.62 3.01
2010-08-01 0.52 2.7
2010-09-01 0.48 2.65
2010-10-01 0.38 2.54
2010-11-01 0.45 2.76
2010-12-01 0.62 3.29
2011-01-01 0.61 3.39
2011-02-01 0.77 3.58
2011-03-01 0.7 3.41
2011-04-01 0.73 3.46
2011-05-01 0.56 3.17
2011-06-01 0.41 3
2011-07-01 0.41 3
2011-08-01 0.23 2.3
2011-09-01 0.21 1.98
2011-10-01 0.28 2.15
2011-11-01 0.25 2.01
2011-12-01 0.26 1.98
2012-01-01 0.24 1.97
2012-02-01 0.28 1.97
2012-03-01 0.34 2.17
2012-04-01 0.29 2.05
2012-05-01 0.29 1.8
2012-06-01 0.29 1.62
2012-07-01 0.25 1.53
2012-08-01 0.27 1.68
2012-09-01 0.26 1.72
2012-10-01 0.28 1.75
2012-11-01 0.27 1.65
2012-12-01 0.26 1.72
2013-01-01 0.27 1.91
2013-02-01 0.27 1.98
2013-03-01 0.26 1.96
2013-04-01 0.23 1.76
2013-05-01 0.25 1.93
2013-06-01 0.33 2.3
2013-07-01 0.34 2.58
2013-08-01 0.36 2.74
2013-09-01 0.4 2.81
2013-10-01 0.34 2.62
2013-11-01 0.3 2.72
2013-12-01 0.34 2.9
2014-01-01 0.39 2.86
2014-02-01 0.33 2.71
2014-03-01 0.4 2.72
2014-04-01 0.42 2.71
2014-05-01 0.39 2.56
2014-06-01 0.45 2.6
2014-07-01 0.51 2.54
2014-08-01 0.47 2.42
2014-09-01 0.57 2.53
2014-10-01 0.45 2.3
2014-11-01 0.53 2.33
2014-12-01 0.64 2.21
2015-01-01 0.55 1.88
2015-02-01 0.62 1.98
2015-03-01 0.64 2.04
2015-04-01 0.54 1.94
2015-05-01 0.61 2.2
2015-06-01 0.69 2.36
2015-07-01 0.67 2.32
2015-08-01 0.7 2.17
2015-09-01 0.71 2.17
2015-10-01 0.64 2.07
2015-11-01 0.88 2.26
2015-12-01 0.98 2.24
2016-01-01 0.9 2.09
2016-02-01 0.73 1.78
2016-03-01 0.88 1.89
2016-04-01 0.77 1.81
2016-05-01 0.82 1.81
2016-06-01 0.73 1.64
2016-07-01 0.67 1.5
2016-08-01 0.74 1.56
2016-09-01 0.77 1.63
2016-10-01 0.84 1.76
2016-11-01 0.98 2.14
2016-12-01 1.2 2.49
2017-01-01 1.21 2.43
2017-02-01 1.2 2.42
2017-03-01 1.31 2.48
2017-04-01 1.24 2.3
2017-05-01 1.3 2.3
2017-06-01 1.34 2.19
2017-07-01 1.37 2.32
2017-08-01 1.34 2.21
2017-09-01 1.38 2.2
2017-10-01 1.55 2.36
2017-11-01 1.7 2.35
2017-12-01 1.84 2.4
2018-01-01 2.03 2.58
2018-02-01 2.18 2.86
2018-03-01 2.28 2.84
2018-04-01 2.38 2.87
2018-05-01 2.51 2.98
2018-06-01 2.53 2.91
2018-07-01 2.61 2.89
2018-08-01 2.64 2.89
2018-09-01 2.77 3
2018-10-01 2.86 3.15
2018-11-01 2.86 3.12
2018-12-01 2.68 2.83
2019-01-01 2.54 2.71
2019-02-01 2.5 2.68
2019-03-01 2.41 2.57
2019-04-01 2.34 2.53
2019-05-01 2.21 2.4
2019-06-01 1.81 2.07
2019-07-01 1.84 2.06
2019-08-01 1.57 1.63
2019-09-01 1.65 1.7
2019-10-01 1.55 1.71
2019-11-01 1.61 1.81
2019-12-01 1.61 1.86
2020-01-01 1.52 1.76
2020-02-01 1.33 1.5
2020-03-01 0.45 0.87
2020-04-01 0.22 0.66
2020-05-01 0.17 0.67
2020-06-01 0.19 0.73
2020-07-01 0.15 0.62
2020-08-01 0.14 0.65
2020-09-01 0.13 0.68
2020-10-01 0.15 0.79
2020-11-01 0.17 0.87
2020-12-01 0.14 0.93
2021-01-01 0.13 1.08
2021-02-01 0.12 1.26
2021-03-01 0.15 1.61
2021-04-01 0.16 1.64
2021-05-01 0.16 1.62
2021-06-01 0.2 1.52
2021-07-01 0.22 1.32
2021-08-01 0.22 1.28
2021-09-01 0.24 1.37
2021-10-01 0.39 1.58
2021-11-01 0.51 1.56
2021-12-01 0.68 1.47
2022-01-01 0.98 1.76
2022-02-01 1.44 1.93
2022-03-01 1.91 2.13
2022-04-01 2.54 2.75
2022-05-01 2.62 2.9
2022-06-01 3 3.14
2022-07-01 3.04 2.9
2022-08-01 3.25 2.9
2022-09-01 3.86 3.52
2022-10-01 4.38 3.98
2022-11-01 4.5 3.89
2022-12-01 4.29 3.62
2023-01-01 4.21 3.53
2023-02-01 4.53 3.75
2023-03-01 4.3 3.66
2023-04-01 4.02 3.46
2023-05-01 4.13 3.57
2023-06-01 4.64 3.75
2023-07-01 4.83 3.9
2023-08-01 4.9 4.17
2023-09-01 5.02 4.38
2023-10-01 5.07 4.8
2023-11-01 4.88 4.5
2023-12-01 4.46 4.02
2024-01-01 4.32 4.06
2024-02-01 4.54 4.21
2024-03-01 4.59 4.21

Note: The 2-year and 10-year Treasury rates are the monthly average of the constant-maturity yields based on the most actively traded securities.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release H.15, "Selected Interest Rates."

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Figure 1.2. An estimate of the nominal Treasury term premium remained relatively low

Percentage points

Date Term Premium
1997-01-01 1.49387619608925
1997-02-01 1.42193889617920
1997-03-01 1.56349500417709
1997-04-01 1.66056819395585
1997-05-01 1.56349525565193
1997-06-01 1.48142857210977
1997-07-01 1.30218181826852
1997-08-01 1.33278094586872
1997-09-01 1.32660953203837
1997-10-01 1.21571363644166
1997-11-01 1.06898887952169
1997-12-01 0.99405455589294
1998-01-01 0.88231999874115
1998-02-01 0.91603158335937
1998-03-01 0.97421817616983
1998-04-01 0.97309047551382
1998-05-01 0.97581499814987
1998-06-01 0.88629545948722
1998-07-01 0.86406818303195
1998-08-01 0.79535714217595
1998-09-01 0.57252856805211
1998-10-01 0.61351904982612
1998-11-01 0.68882631314428
1998-12-01 0.59713182124225
1999-01-01 0.69821579205362
1999-02-01 0.84375788977272
1999-03-01 0.99568260234335
1999-04-01 0.97580000332424
1999-05-01 1.13935790563885
1999-06-01 1.32467727227644
1999-07-01 1.28947368421053
1999-08-01 1.35223636843941
1999-09-01 1.34805713381086
1999-10-01 1.44446498751640
1999-11-01 1.27639001011848
1999-12-01 1.35427726398815
2000-01-01 1.50946500301361
2000-02-01 1.38115000724792
2000-03-01 1.21349130506101
2000-04-01 1.04713683693033
2000-05-01 1.23775907538154
2000-06-01 1.05134545673024
2000-07-01 0.96387999653816
2000-08-01 0.82335217880166
2000-09-01 0.83604500293732
2000-10-01 0.74754286380041
2000-11-01 0.70152380920592
2000-12-01 0.52973000407219
2001-01-01 0.69438095887502
2001-02-01 0.77411052114085
2001-03-01 0.78375909274275
2001-04-01 1.06420498788357
2001-05-01 1.29313182288950
2001-06-01 1.29323333785647
2001-07-01 1.25510475749061
2001-08-01 1.17007391867430
2001-09-01 1.21610587484696
2001-10-01 1.27206818623976
2001-11-01 1.41033499240875
2001-12-01 1.78161498904228
2002-01-01 1.75319523470742
2002-02-01 1.65985790051912
2002-03-01 1.84941499829292
2002-04-01 1.80147726969285
2002-05-01 1.74901364066384
2002-06-01 1.59664998650551
2002-07-01 1.44536362452941
2002-08-01 1.20719091458754
2002-09-01 0.93414999544621
2002-10-01 0.98709090460431
2002-11-01 1.14546315920980
2002-12-01 1.15573809260414
2003-01-01 1.16111426694053
2003-02-01 1.06583157652303
2003-03-01 0.99284285874594
2003-04-01 1.08824284871419
2003-05-01 0.81813333148048
2003-06-01 0.67740952684766
2003-07-01 1.10343636436896
2003-08-01 1.45625713893345
2003-09-01 1.33401905354999
2003-10-01 1.32285455682061
2003-11-01 1.33156110843023
2003-12-01 1.31312273849141
2004-01-01 1.23159999251366
2004-02-01 1.18363158326400
2004-03-01 1.00030000572619
2004-04-01 1.34154762540545
2004-05-01 1.56125501394272
2004-06-01 1.48352380593618
2004-07-01 1.29254761763981
2004-08-01 1.12465454773469
2004-09-01 0.95767620347795
2004-10-01 0.89669500589371
2004-11-01 0.86949499249458
2004-12-01 0.83374090628191
2005-01-01 0.78052999973297
2005-02-01 0.68346842025456
2005-03-01 0.84596363251860
2005-04-01 0.72042381479627
2005-05-01 0.57196665803591
2005-06-01 0.44920908862894
2005-07-01 0.48403000086546
2005-08-01 0.47995217209277
2005-09-01 0.43298571308454
2005-10-01 0.52736499905586
2005-11-01 0.54386499524117
2005-12-01 0.48192857418742
2006-01-01 0.37166000157595
2006-02-01 0.42411578799549
2006-03-01 0.49160434759182
2006-04-01 0.61374210056506
2006-05-01 0.65898635983467
2006-06-01 0.61802272905003
2006-07-01 0.56058999896050
2006-08-01 0.44322173491768
2006-09-01 0.38348499685526
2006-10-01 0.36910476287206
2006-11-01 0.27474285733132
2006-12-01 0.27258000001311
2007-01-01 0.37589047494389
2007-02-01 0.35075789533163
2007-03-01 0.26522727039727
2007-04-01 0.35528571548916
2007-05-01 0.40774545479905
2007-06-01 0.66799999134881
2007-07-01 0.57876666670754
2007-08-01 0.53292173924653
2007-09-01 0.51194210428941
2007-10-01 0.53239091418006
2007-11-01 0.47749000191689
2007-12-01 0.52769000083208
2008-01-01 0.39703809931165
2008-02-01 0.63179000020027
2008-03-01 0.67179000675678
2008-04-01 0.77650454640389
2008-05-01 0.83594761575971
2008-06-01 0.92182857649667
2008-07-01 0.88442273031582
2008-08-01 0.79169048014141
2008-09-01 0.77657619828270
2008-10-01 1.10844090310010
2008-11-01 1.11563889516724
2008-12-01 0.50679544698108
2009-01-01 0.54770000129938
2009-02-01 0.74051052959342
2009-03-01 0.66835454377261
2009-04-01 0.67949048110417
2009-05-01 0.93476000130177
2009-06-01 1.27825456315821
2009-07-01 1.15004090829329
2009-08-01 1.17922379857018
2009-09-01 1.05722857656933
2009-10-01 1.02750476201375
2009-11-01 1.02790525712465
2009-12-01 1.10391820018942
2010-01-01 1.20727894180699
2010-02-01 1.15732631557866
2010-03-01 1.15418260512145
2010-04-01 1.22110000523654
2010-05-01 0.96019001007080
2010-06-01 0.82520454309203
2010-07-01 0.65829047134944
2010-08-01 0.42437727207487
2010-09-01 0.38724761775562
2010-10-01 0.27883500158787
2010-11-01 0.40001000016928
2010-12-01 0.80807272683490
2011-01-01 0.87370000183582
2011-02-01 1.01930526369496
2011-03-01 0.92058260803637
2011-04-01 0.96702499985695
2011-05-01 0.76268571331388
2011-06-01 0.60678636214950
2011-07-01 0.61241499632597
2011-08-01 0.15002608720375
2011-09-01 -0.04311904777396
2011-10-01 0.06628000047058
2011-11-01 -0.03269000025139
2011-12-01 -0.06211428488383
2012-01-01 -0.08969999980181
2012-02-01 -0.11923000067473
2012-03-01 0.02389545535499
2012-04-01 -0.05748571455479
2012-05-01 -0.22107272425836
2012-06-01 -0.33160952443168
2012-07-01 -0.39998094666572
2012-08-01 -0.29730869440929
2012-09-01 -0.29425789258982
2012-10-01 -0.28263809354532
2012-11-01 -0.33052000105381
2012-12-01 -0.29237999692559
2013-01-01 -0.16697142769893
2013-02-01 -0.11623157835320
2013-03-01 -0.13496499992907
2013-04-01 -0.25820454413241
2013-05-01 -0.14679090899881
2013-06-01 0.13666999959969
2013-07-01 0.34681364216588
2013-08-01 0.46296817606146
2013-09-01 0.52462500482798
2013-10-01 0.36396363513036
2013-11-01 0.41019473577801
2013-12-01 0.55254285959970
2014-01-01 0.56326666190511
2014-02-01 0.45349474015989
2014-03-01 0.48433333493414
2014-04-01 0.50188095229013
2014-05-01 0.40066666830154
2014-06-01 0.43160476003374
2014-07-01 0.40733181752942
2014-08-01 0.34238095084826
2014-09-01 0.42512856778644
2014-10-01 0.27208181809295
2014-11-01 0.29303888811006
2014-12-01 0.21479091115973
2015-01-01 0.00559999986363
2015-02-01 0.06802105374242
2015-03-01 0.10264545540452
2015-04-01 0.01210454556514
2015-05-01 0.19097499921918
2015-06-01 0.29705454476855
2015-07-01 0.25926363400438
2015-08-01 0.13421904668212
2015-09-01 0.13599523724545
2015-10-01 0.07142857125118
2015-11-01 0.18211579009106
2015-12-01 0.12458181804554
2016-01-01 0.01171578942357
2016-02-01 -0.19744000062347
2016-03-01 -0.12342272766612
2016-04-01 -0.17547619129930
2016-05-01 -0.17419047511759
2016-06-01 -0.28134545751593
2016-07-01 -0.37813000231981
2016-08-01 -0.34600869339445
2016-09-01 -0.30391904711723
2016-10-01 -0.23313999921084
2016-11-01 -0.00042999796569
2016-12-01 0.23997142839999
2017-01-01 0.19487999975681
2017-02-01 0.18231052787680
2017-03-01 0.16156956618247
2017-04-01 0.00816315786429
2017-05-01 -0.01639090893282
2017-06-01 -0.12879090857777
2017-07-01 -0.05971999955364
2017-08-01 -0.12134782613620
2017-09-01 -0.14099499881268
2017-10-01 -0.05683333351321
2017-11-01 -0.09271428627627
2017-12-01 -0.08237500060350
2018-01-01 -0.00222857172290
2018-02-01 0.13901052741628
2018-03-01 0.09334285637098
2018-04-01 0.08341904707430
2018-05-01 0.13237727264112
2018-06-01 0.07739047599690
2018-07-01 0.04093333315991
2018-08-01 0.01441304338084
2018-09-01 0.05396842076688
2018-10-01 0.11274999972772
2018-11-01 0.06526500037871
2018-12-01 -0.13053157827572
2019-01-01 -0.21357142783347
2019-02-01 -0.23472631761902
2019-03-01 -0.29969047719524
2019-04-01 -0.31558571401097
2019-05-01 -0.38693636384877
2019-06-01 -0.53797999769449
2019-07-01 -0.52849090912125
2019-08-01 -0.74349545619705
2019-09-01 -0.69248999655247
2019-10-01 -0.62907726927237
2019-11-01 -0.52113684855009
2019-12-01 -0.48552857410340
2020-01-01 -0.54832381010056
2020-02-01 -0.70858420510041
2020-03-01 -0.74760454893112
2020-04-01 -0.83640476067861
2020-05-01 -0.84864999651909
2020-06-01 -0.83839544924823
2020-07-01 -0.89669545130296
2020-08-01 -0.88822380701701
2020-09-01 -0.87314762104125
2020-10-01 -0.80891904944465
2020-11-01 -0.74806841737346
2020-12-01 -0.71791363304312
2021-01-01 -0.63408946677258
2021-02-01 -0.51284210776028
2021-03-01 -0.24336086796678
2021-04-01 -0.21143181825226
2021-05-01 -0.22790000140667
2021-06-01 -0.27697727016427
2021-07-01 -0.40305714096342
2021-08-01 -0.42706363309513
2021-09-01 -0.36504762158507
2021-10-01 -0.20738499909639
2021-11-01 -0.19846500083804
2021-12-01 -0.26228181882338
2022-01-01 -0.10475999936461
2022-02-01 -0.07133157943424
2022-03-01 -0.00709130355845
2022-04-01 0.28324999660254
2022-05-01 0.32105714082718
2022-06-01 0.32132857257412
2022-07-01 -0.05631500021555
2022-08-01 -0.17081304542396
2022-09-01 0.08192857081026
2022-10-01 0.21792500056326
2022-11-01 0.03666000082158
2022-12-01 -0.21677619130129
2023-01-01 -0.33284500129521
2023-02-01 -0.23357368613544
2023-03-01 -0.25125652081941
2023-04-01 -0.42671999782324
2023-05-01 -0.43282727084377
2023-06-01 -0.35511428543500
2023-07-01 -0.28868999704719
2023-08-01 -0.13306956602584
2023-09-01 0.00368500044569
2023-10-01 0.29071428307465
2023-11-01 0.13320476246909
2023-12-01 -0.16031499789096
2024-01-01 -0.13113809483392
2024-02-01 -0.03578000004636
2024-03-01 -0.05266999976011

Note: Term premiums are estimated from a 3-factor term structure model using Treasury yields and Blue Chip interest rate forecasts.

Source: Department of the Treasury; Wolters Kluwer, Blue Chip Financial Forecasts; Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Federal Reserve Board staff estimates.

Return to text
Figure 1.3. Interest rate volatility fell slightly but continued to be elevated by historical norms

Basis points

Date Implied Volatility of 10-Year Swap Rate
2005-04-01 93.1407611818182
2005-05-01 87.2053020454545
2005-06-01 87.5994123636364
2005-07-01 89.3425940000000
2005-08-01 84.2202744347826
2005-09-01 83.8325441363636
2005-10-01 86.0325223333333
2005-11-01 87.1229912727273
2005-12-01 77.7070317272727
2006-01-01 75.8552282272727
2006-02-01 72.5708299500000
2006-03-01 72.1180623913043
2006-04-01 76.5682459500000
2006-05-01 74.3080899130435
2006-06-01 70.7608532727273
2006-07-01 69.4930483333333
2006-08-01 62.8133045217391
2006-09-01 62.7310715238095
2006-10-01 64.0431154545455
2006-11-01 67.6373596363636
2006-12-01 66.2340620000000
2007-01-01 66.4426889130435
2007-02-01 66.7878776000000
2007-03-01 70.8117155454545
2007-04-01 62.8650858095238
2007-05-01 58.1989928695652
2007-06-01 79.0500360952381
2007-07-01 82.6708996818182
2007-08-01 84.3294735217391
2007-09-01 97.0252322000000
2007-10-01 91.0426627826087
2007-11-01 97.0015865454545
2007-12-01 117.9762051904760
2008-01-01 133.4064236521740
2008-02-01 150.9233060952380
2008-03-01 163.9723355238100
2008-04-01 139.6435753636360
2008-05-01 126.3531985909090
2008-06-01 140.4754497619050
2008-07-01 127.8022199565220
2008-08-01 111.5671815714290
2008-09-01 141.1032905000000
2008-10-01 188.8759711304350
2008-11-01 205.8338857500000
2008-12-01 232.0306616956520
2009-01-01 169.8269715909090
2009-02-01 187.7330855000000
2009-03-01 157.2753674090910
2009-04-01 129.7365514545450
2009-05-01 153.2816031904760
2009-06-01 223.6558794090910
2009-07-01 197.7553324090910
2009-08-01 180.7456841904760
2009-09-01 147.8076396818180
2009-10-01 134.6450406363640
2009-11-01 112.4428005714290
2009-12-01 110.1041495000000
2010-01-01 109.9095010000000
2010-02-01 100.7843527000000
2010-03-01 90.5415333043478
2010-04-01 95.7845809090909
2010-05-01 108.3768390476190
2010-06-01 108.3489289545450
2010-07-01 91.2602745454545
2010-08-01 100.9084886818180
2010-09-01 110.9901589090910
2010-10-01 102.9314067142860
2010-11-01 109.1785347272730
2010-12-01 125.3473072272730
2011-01-01 113.2357514761900
2011-02-01 111.2275581500000
2011-03-01 110.3348527826090
2011-04-01 92.0810600500000
2011-05-01 89.4274393636364
2011-06-01 94.3602630909091
2011-07-01 101.4077653333330
2011-08-01 117.1096775217390
2011-09-01 121.0058491818180
2011-10-01 124.6392852380950
2011-11-01 125.2365083636360
2011-12-01 105.1092095909090
2012-01-01 86.8961869090909
2012-02-01 87.9287980476190
2012-03-01 92.8956355454546
2012-04-01 86.3847064761905
2012-05-01 78.4844144782609
2012-06-01 89.6806648095238
2012-07-01 72.8232575909091
2012-08-01 78.5166424347826
2012-09-01 75.8383667000000
2012-10-01 75.6908457391304
2012-11-01 67.6227298181818
2012-12-01 61.8341229047619
2013-01-01 67.3589163478261
2013-02-01 68.8840089000000
2013-03-01 64.7794116190476
2013-04-01 60.4505235000000
2013-05-01 69.0075274782609
2013-06-01 100.3947363000000
2013-07-01 104.7759794782610
2013-08-01 100.2640195000000
2013-09-01 101.2118931428570
2013-10-01 81.6170621739130
2013-11-01 74.5137228571429
2013-12-01 75.8982773636364
2014-01-01 70.3636708260870
2014-02-01 69.2855606000000
2014-03-01 65.5307374285714
2014-04-01 62.8501716666667
2014-05-01 61.4742948181818
2014-06-01 61.9679537142857
2014-07-01 59.6560042608696
2014-08-01 62.2641432380952
2014-09-01 65.4064466363636
2014-10-01 76.7030626956522
2014-11-01 67.4089236500000
2014-12-01 70.2256455652174
2015-01-01 87.0186313636364
2015-02-01 91.1326394500000
2015-03-01 84.3177593181818
2015-04-01 77.4148326818182
2015-05-01 86.7601392380952
2015-06-01 88.9114960000000
2015-07-01 82.9971814347826
2015-08-01 80.3195948500000
2015-09-01 79.7947395000000
2015-10-01 75.1609395454545
2015-11-01 72.1120120952381
2015-12-01 70.3005218260870
2016-01-01 76.2914845238095
2016-02-01 89.1231934761905
2016-03-01 78.9347058181818
2016-04-01 72.0117337619048
2016-05-01 69.0779673636364
2016-06-01 77.2490590000000
2016-07-01 76.8601374285714
2016-08-01 68.1436731739130
2016-09-01 67.2750649090909
2016-10-01 65.2515483809524
2016-11-01 83.5448066818182
2016-12-01 81.1593321363636
2017-01-01 81.1271510909091
2017-02-01 75.6451058000000
2017-03-01 69.9332405652174
2017-04-01 75.8273615000000
2017-05-01 62.2952567826087
2017-06-01 58.9056952272727
2017-07-01 59.5746184761905
2017-08-01 57.3938232608696
2017-09-01 58.1155528095238
2017-10-01 59.6366519545455
2017-11-01 52.3190709090909
2017-12-01 50.8717691904762
2018-01-01 55.5877003043478
2018-02-01 72.0271280000000
2018-03-01 63.4433651363636
2018-04-01 58.5823622857143
2018-05-01 58.5377230000000
2018-06-01 57.8168248095238
2018-07-01 53.9075479545455
2018-08-01 52.7038092608696
2018-09-01 51.7013490000000
2018-10-01 58.2089809130435
2018-11-01 57.7368546363636
2018-12-01 59.4768278095238
2019-01-01 56.8872852608696
2019-02-01 50.9286239500000
2019-03-01 52.1450475238095
2019-04-01 51.7224289090909
2019-05-01 57.2293738260870
2019-06-01 68.6766383000000
2019-07-01 62.1373200000000
2019-08-01 81.9997485454546
2019-09-01 82.1033849523809
2019-10-01 78.1486783478261
2019-11-01 66.9196303809524
2019-12-01 64.9177692272727
2020-01-01 63.7826934782609
2020-02-01 76.3504349000000
2020-03-01 128.1982829090910
2020-04-01 79.1194908181818
2020-05-01 62.0802865714286
2020-06-01 68.1176147272727
2020-07-01 56.0211723913043
2020-08-01 54.0961076666667
2020-09-01 49.9714252727273
2020-10-01 68.7694889545455
2020-11-01 57.2393500952381
2020-12-01 58.7475827391304
2021-01-01 58.6661465714286
2021-02-01 68.8616019500000
2021-03-01 82.8590066956522
2021-04-01 76.9544033181818
2021-05-01 69.6327573333333
2021-06-01 66.3641393636364
2021-07-01 73.0951925454546
2021-08-01 75.2578712727273
2021-09-01 69.0911080000000
2021-10-01 73.5020376666667
2021-11-01 79.6158680454545
2021-12-01 80.1248898695652
2022-01-01 81.8231407142857
2022-02-01 88.6890586500000
2022-03-01 108.6102514782610
2022-04-01 119.3662450000000
2022-05-01 114.9301181818180
2022-06-01 119.7093215909090
2022-07-01 122.7566329523810
2022-08-01 111.6782608695650
2022-09-01 127.0818181818180
2022-10-01 138.3523809523810
2022-11-01 126.5545454545450
2022-12-01 125.8590909090910
2023-01-01 111.9090909090910
2023-02-01 105.9850000000000
2023-03-01 120.6956521739130
2023-04-01 112.9050000000000
2023-05-01 115.9173913043480
2023-06-01 106.7772727272730
2023-07-01 108.0095238095240
2023-08-01 115.3739130434780
2023-09-01 112.3571428571430
2023-10-01 129.3863636363640
2023-11-01 117.2909090909090
2023-12-01 112.5857142857140
2024-01-01 107.9869565217390
2024-02-01 108.1476190476190
2024-03-01 101.3190476190480

Note: The data begin in April 2005. Implied volatility on the 10-year swap rate, 1 month ahead, is derived from swaptions.

Source: For data through July 13, 2022, Barclays and S&P Global; for data from July 14, 2022, onward, ICAP, Swaptions and Interest Rate Caps and Floors Data.

Return to text
Figure 1.4. The price-to-earnings ratio of S&P 500 firms increased to levels further above its historical median

Ratio

Date Forward Price-to-Earnings Ratio
1989-01-01 10.0642041004352
1989-02-01 10.1351785277036
1989-03-01 10.1118922462201
1989-04-01 10.4207590726509
1989-05-01 10.7228446891080
1989-06-01 10.8504116333394
1989-07-01 11.2392594036221
1989-08-01 11.5544806266731
1989-09-01 11.5054534466439
1989-10-01 11.4766417155518
1989-11-01 11.5116562988962
1989-12-01 11.8812905010920
1990-01-01 11.5253301676757
1990-02-01 11.2996436482706
1990-03-01 11.4928153778434
1990-04-01 11.6485959646005
1990-05-01 12.0714446710221
1990-06-01 12.3791505291935
1990-07-01 12.3891135597196
1990-08-01 11.5099674895943
1990-09-01 10.7870645246304
1990-10-01 10.3021545599654
1990-11-01 11.1825864275695
1990-12-01 11.6620618537876
1991-01-01 11.2520631617467
1991-02-01 13.4297373973324
1991-03-01 13.7676511619486
1991-04-01 14.4448937578081
1991-05-01 13.6412911081324
1991-06-01 13.9019610555980
1991-07-01 14.1587352437613
1991-08-01 14.3984685279974
1991-09-01 14.2098281900941
1991-10-01 14.3177036674953
1991-11-01 14.4579694647543
1991-12-01 14.0147931972351
1992-01-01 15.3733240239014
1992-02-01 15.0166156856854
1992-03-01 14.8698923112736
1992-04-01 14.8084722682607
1992-05-01 14.7012566468572
1992-06-01 14.0119323477933
1992-07-01 14.4288994144297
1992-08-01 14.4492792036095
1992-09-01 14.4067638714479
1992-10-01 14.0007456665535
1992-11-01 14.5131946779659
1992-12-01 14.7028563487786
1993-01-01 14.6080305648220
1993-02-01 14.6587228139057
1993-03-01 15.0087911001116
1993-04-01 15.0293979690151
1993-05-01 14.7210841779365
1993-06-01 14.6369471028704
1993-07-01 14.6337185703868
1993-08-01 14.7630294485469
1993-09-01 14.8018281543635
1993-10-01 14.6403330198253
1993-11-01 14.6645709081992
1993-12-01 14.4751595360612
1994-01-01 14.7450744677096
1994-02-01 14.6015699627999
1994-03-01 14.3344033038633
1994-04-01 13.4596920513799
1994-05-01 13.4202863736397
1994-06-01 13.4712142158110
1994-07-01 13.0052681175532
1994-08-01 13.2082079828365
1994-09-01 13.1110084606934
1994-10-01 12.9187629694705
1994-11-01 12.5574041986423
1994-12-01 12.0890353997795
1995-01-01 12.3126519658941
1995-02-01 12.4846693022309
1995-03-01 12.5091571942069
1995-04-01 12.6617743349616
1995-05-01 12.9077616132025
1995-06-01 13.0562649494836
1995-07-01 13.3014044029565
1995-08-01 13.3508512326715
1995-09-01 13.6719030292704
1995-10-01 13.7722621172874
1995-11-01 13.8051714342521
1995-12-01 14.3198703612651
1996-01-01 14.0111990808930
1996-02-01 15.2296363731547
1996-03-01 14.8043570617285
1996-04-01 14.7865508354932
1996-05-01 15.1905957553161
1996-06-01 14.7279453444068
1996-07-01 14.4050285357334
1996-08-01 14.9198407030755
1996-09-01 15.2446849445196
1996-10-01 15.6118248760686
1996-11-01 16.0706498518185
1996-12-01 15.8458912292950
1997-01-01 16.4576680119022
1997-02-01 17.3592229505404
1997-03-01 16.6477699918784
1997-04-01 16.0273439394106
1997-05-01 17.3853457016968
1997-06-01 18.3931881211402
1997-07-01 19.2280005865275
1997-08-01 18.6788110161274
1997-09-01 18.9185335938964
1997-10-01 19.1994215237027
1997-11-01 18.6019105974642
1997-12-01 18.8729138031310
1998-01-01 18.6650034687728
1998-02-01 20.3669601330907
1998-03-01 21.4253585433257
1998-04-01 21.9020057955050
1998-05-01 21.6885495932345
1998-06-01 21.4202767974114
1998-07-01 22.7745506545565
1998-08-01 21.1679008585543
1998-09-01 20.0165228950352
1998-10-01 19.2754072745377
1998-11-01 22.0211043312729
1998-12-01 22.3010226324535
1999-01-01 23.7010191646146
1999-02-01 23.5293776819871
1999-03-01 24.7257169346688
1999-04-01 24.9502254591470
1999-05-01 24.7376864132027
1999-06-01 24.2960595118963
1999-07-01 25.4371035829107
1999-08-01 23.9049826729959
1999-09-01 23.4638389210304
1999-10-01 22.5467256311648
1999-11-01 24.4968203960140
1999-12-01 24.4215149840605
2000-01-01 24.8524227671678
2000-02-01 24.0255889542090
2000-03-01 23.7295651532395
2000-04-01 23.9131148640033
2000-05-01 23.8836044378258
2000-06-01 24.0995670787461
2000-07-01 24.0958175369778
2000-08-01 23.8545838586837
2000-09-01 23.8565753873583
2000-10-01 21.4410420929036
2000-11-01 22.2487933361038
2000-12-01 22.1000443693441
2001-01-01 21.9800191946399
2001-02-01 22.1005594615803
2001-03-01 19.7213721428790
2001-04-01 21.4098817133144
2001-05-01 22.2362968706407
2001-06-01 21.6731573132958
2001-07-01 21.6060912361179
2001-08-01 21.1659295675508
2001-09-01 18.4182139034709
2001-10-01 20.3745288143425
2001-11-01 21.4952535556687
2001-12-01 21.5712908975611
2002-01-01 21.0017915239501
2002-02-01 20.4682927801969
2002-03-01 20.7499019266520
2002-04-01 20.1691207958640
2002-05-01 19.3993497822044
2002-06-01 18.1122606516339
2002-07-01 16.1427558386424
2002-08-01 16.5998982014364
2002-09-01 15.7178472432077
2002-10-01 15.7758124045756
2002-11-01 16.0232602624122
2002-12-01 16.1214994318098
2003-01-01 16.4824698708600
2003-02-01 15.3421065680945
2003-03-01 15.7071724109081
2003-04-01 15.6796728500434
2003-05-01 16.5637852909061
2003-06-01 17.6909926511214
2003-07-01 17.2749947028794
2003-08-01 16.9374674060014
2003-09-01 17.4143520377129
2003-10-01 17.5055024483919
2003-11-01 17.1017666689584
2003-12-01 17.4299196211811
2004-01-01 18.0966656554652
2004-02-01 18.0921393153315
2004-03-01 17.3975908526079
2004-04-01 17.1059407678062
2004-05-01 15.9759396712240
2004-06-01 16.4112064237897
2004-07-01 15.9264261167857
2004-08-01 15.5140446712195
2004-09-01 15.7701948964300
2004-10-01 15.4842476577299
2004-11-01 16.1684935214670
2004-12-01 16.3213956962421
2005-01-01 15.9518142126453
2005-02-01 16.1662969568544
2005-03-01 15.6432295065534
2005-04-01 15.3024404778722
2005-05-01 15.2772492971762
2005-06-01 15.4143339294562
2005-07-01 15.4071892725404
2005-08-01 15.1376219514918
2005-09-01 14.9539231921628
2005-10-01 14.3352217875791
2005-11-01 14.6103020109322
2005-12-01 14.9788317527463
2006-01-01 14.9036136488607
2006-02-01 14.9322906372015
2006-03-01 15.0622206343863
2006-04-01 14.9922158568980
2006-05-01 14.2956520270790
2006-06-01 13.6920412774534
2006-07-01 13.9018656622377
2006-08-01 14.1250561969898
2006-09-01 14.2612911445694
2006-10-01 14.6542040923097
2006-11-01 14.8070524198371
2006-12-01 14.8246715656549
2007-01-01 15.0136351345782
2007-02-01 15.3892947314649
2007-03-01 14.5559652362442
2007-04-01 15.3150548160842
2007-05-01 15.5081074029821
2007-06-01 15.2972075726326
2007-07-01 15.4096842090421
2007-08-01 13.8716348166020
2007-09-01 15.0078786405010
2007-10-01 15.0147178674359
2007-11-01 14.3219244498574
2007-12-01 14.1969321826872
2008-01-01 13.4918915319416
2008-02-01 13.6770449749573
2008-03-01 13.0897547032142
2008-04-01 13.8053644963333
2008-05-01 14.3036525519596
2008-06-01 13.5080907651354
2008-07-01 12.5966395499155
2008-08-01 13.2893321467503
2008-09-01 12.0093578073256
2008-10-01 9.9318329213557
2008-11-01 9.7367465570831
2008-12-01 11.8730480320341
2009-01-01 11.4801309882739
2009-02-01 12.4581659513670
2009-03-01 12.4236915485468
2009-04-01 13.5116428176185
2009-05-01 14.6566754241186
2009-06-01 14.7265105693616
2009-07-01 14.7961580116896
2009-08-01 15.2017579149890
2009-09-01 15.9111503050052
2009-10-01 15.8536049171995
2009-11-01 15.1214375656104
2009-12-01 14.8891212062393
2010-01-01 14.8025979666784
2010-02-01 13.8091414998773
2010-03-01 14.4371052248703
2010-04-01 14.8231570236257
2010-05-01 12.9864828391494
2010-06-01 12.8167461676147
2010-07-01 12.4947046545179
2010-08-01 12.1003667402263
2010-09-01 12.3539276932622
2010-10-01 12.8366964759288
2010-11-01 12.5672398714282
2010-12-01 13.0317030449426
2011-01-01 13.2143960591698
2011-02-01 13.7053872409754
2011-03-01 12.6071998036253
2011-04-01 12.9702091001044
2011-05-01 12.8954180988548
2011-06-01 12.0666989300472
2011-07-01 12.6376440204923
2011-08-01 11.2820672894418
2011-09-01 11.2423592676524
2011-10-01 11.4984973126867
2011-11-01 11.6743764756942
2011-12-01 11.4047421189985
2012-01-01 12.3284610785806
2012-02-01 12.6339190258947
2012-03-01 12.9633528407449
2012-04-01 12.6564970125371
2012-05-01 12.0117862446820
2012-06-01 11.8910142644773
2012-07-01 12.5919771646056
2012-08-01 12.9173911712853
2012-09-01 13.3366589345093
2012-10-01 13.2080657632062
2012-11-01 12.1866166585069
2012-12-01 12.8556281783628
2013-01-01 13.1194077811375
2013-02-01 13.5304859215612
2013-03-01 13.7170526639079
2013-04-01 13.5910511828577
2013-05-01 14.4775023979513
2013-06-01 14.1017245235448
2013-07-01 14.5078041217903
2013-08-01 14.5798854005687
2013-09-01 14.8364575387916
2013-10-01 14.7113422962906
2013-11-01 15.0316866360930
2013-12-01 15.1988757168877
2014-01-01 15.4248175864551
2014-02-01 15.4338393754973
2014-03-01 15.6027065746791
2014-04-01 15.4957603050171
2014-05-01 15.4501929377274
2014-06-01 15.8287425554734
2014-07-01 15.9659101689999
2014-08-01 15.5474166716045
2014-09-01 15.8920957223448
2014-10-01 14.7599887576360
2014-11-01 16.1899130221622
2014-12-01 16.1131035842842
2015-01-01 16.2283076849354
2015-02-01 17.3507177718087
2015-03-01 17.2720142982500
2015-04-01 17.2856618571758
2015-05-01 17.0892184592933
2015-06-01 16.9590785982327
2015-07-01 16.9774450741791
2015-08-01 16.7533674541663
2015-09-01 16.0927541868382
2015-10-01 16.1399198814842
2015-11-01 16.7966149570643
2015-12-01 16.6871911987418
2016-01-01 15.2963724320877
2016-02-01 15.9109375981050
2016-03-01 16.7096594993403
2016-04-01 17.0917911605184
2016-05-01 16.6743988424736
2016-06-01 16.7458135049560
2016-07-01 17.3983444287421
2016-08-01 17.5193242795995
2016-09-01 16.9184989610450
2016-10-01 16.8904141860746
2016-11-01 16.9469515309043
2016-12-01 17.3279856476856
2017-01-01 17.2756616617434
2017-02-01 17.9103480024804
2017-03-01 18.0366846463876
2017-04-01 17.5409558534353
2017-05-01 17.4949360001073
2017-06-01 17.9097418837352
2017-07-01 18.2286600460627
2017-08-01 18.0945478475706
2017-09-01 18.1818373629954
2017-10-01 18.4437240185425
2017-11-01 18.1457879102924
2017-12-01 18.6376692915424
2018-01-01 18.7262484885268
2018-02-01 17.2803988036018
2018-03-01 17.3747047772781
2018-04-01 16.9213576865824
2018-05-01 16.6826816938149
2018-06-01 16.8409652987132
2018-07-01 17.0294750151743
2018-08-01 16.8204268095450
2018-09-01 17.2089760095866
2018-10-01 16.4932581451517
2018-11-01 15.7182948940772
2018-12-01 14.6494181498620
2019-01-01 15.4545056397489
2019-02-01 16.3429455334446
2019-03-01 16.6014790238239
2019-04-01 17.0782994682097
2019-05-01 16.6613495040966
2019-06-01 17.0282970780038
2019-07-01 17.4493702847224
2019-08-01 16.5422933240280
2019-09-01 17.4027941522372
2019-10-01 17.3126802778573
2019-11-01 17.8327729256194
2019-12-01 18.2514893671885
2020-01-01 18.7318433855344
2020-02-01 19.2709514596588
2020-03-01 14.1255861110428
2020-04-01 18.9302812691237
2020-05-01 20.5186351556240
2020-06-01 22.3998783273015
2020-07-01 23.0964175619734
2020-08-01 23.0978354058033
2020-09-01 22.6400443011802
2020-10-01 22.8106531500594
2020-11-01 22.2430885768087
2020-12-01 22.5579907811605
2021-01-01 23.0474493328223
2021-02-01 22.7579449513680
2021-03-01 22.4526301518681
2021-04-01 22.6454310611863
2021-05-01 21.3305491808641
2021-06-01 21.5963588323736
2021-07-01 22.1795072897431
2021-08-01 21.4373170710150
2021-09-01 21.6306098396725
2021-10-01 20.8064613602203
2021-11-01 21.8409008986592
2021-12-01 21.6016861564222
2022-01-01 20.5507579015692
2022-02-01 19.9604191188382
2022-03-01 19.1290110516015
2022-04-01 19.3246377044504
2022-05-01 16.8647924579843
2022-06-01 16.1620783346285
2022-07-01 16.3363668462096
2022-08-01 18.6068020769167
2022-09-01 17.1123905624570
2022-10-01 16.1646032750192
2022-11-01 17.5808992672092
2022-12-01 17.6433402431891
2023-01-01 17.4916138057654
2023-02-01 18.6618155856315
2023-03-01 17.4155807384435
2023-04-01 18.5735193903040
2023-05-01 18.4147376085252
2023-06-01 19.1935698596523
2023-07-01 20.1600647215234
2023-08-01 19.1070901189196
2023-09-01 19.1319115027220
2023-10-01 18.3089857899012
2023-11-01 18.8824473217250
2023-12-01 19.4746505860349
2024-01-01 19.5766519421527
2024-02-01 20.4711457297532
2024-03-01 20.8097539359783

Note: The figure shows the aggregate forward price-to-earnings ratio of Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 firms, based on expected earnings for 12 months ahead. The median value is 15.64 ratio.

Source: Refinitiv, Institutional Brokers' Estimate System, North American Summary & Detail Estimates, Level 2, Current & History Data, Adjusted and Unadjusted, https://www.refinitiv.com/en/financial-data/company-data/institutional-brokers-estimate-system-ibes

Return to text
Figure 1.5. An estimate of the equity premium fell further below its historical median

Percentage points

Date Spread
1991-10-01 3.31273360602933
1991-11-01 3.29699872273821
1991-12-01 3.80530647491709
1992-01-01 2.88087560859424
1992-02-01 2.79500613189168
1992-03-01 2.73271320411514
1992-04-01 3.00402419565771
1992-05-01 3.14273499083780
1992-06-01 3.59381579580855
1992-07-01 3.57441077942668
1992-08-01 3.78322211639405
1992-09-01 3.92844126543843
1992-10-01 3.83837994024281
1992-11-01 3.38410059432048
1992-12-01 3.38594812094295
1993-01-01 3.48979985098156
1993-02-01 3.80604430773826
1993-03-01 3.87431938653222
1993-04-01 4.09323900090521
1993-05-01 4.22507816087965
1993-06-01 4.40833920366495
1993-07-01 4.33092569202072
1993-08-01 4.35459239050371
1993-09-01 4.64893768153862
1993-10-01 4.76786197487311
1993-11-01 4.38570124549905
1993-12-01 4.44619951245064
1994-01-01 4.35771664620068
1994-02-01 4.18053157149611
1994-03-01 3.79520399479644
1994-04-01 3.82661108131632
1994-05-01 3.67645808628890
1994-06-01 3.73637364017627
1994-07-01 3.79914900236774
1994-08-01 3.75039104536865
1994-09-01 3.58191503577891
1994-10-01 3.43766115105621
1994-11-01 3.46549945388495
1994-12-01 3.88647761941905
1995-01-01 3.54204716950000
1995-02-01 3.76072369490000
1995-03-01 3.98380191687977
1995-04-01 4.09008593725384
1995-05-01 4.38150648807950
1995-06-01 4.72173706003636
1995-07-01 4.32248373797545
1995-08-01 4.08471670689548
1995-09-01 4.18051167854780
1995-10-01 4.11660466303124
1995-11-01 4.21786811235324
1995-12-01 4.15822487614570
1996-01-01 4.36917718179476
1996-02-01 3.64650168723885
1996-03-01 3.34520172741229
1996-04-01 3.09553806956768
1996-05-01 2.74435208651186
1996-06-01 2.80571915039495
1996-07-01 3.03367549670268
1996-08-01 3.03045505118195
1996-09-01 2.65485765170050
1996-10-01 2.80366510454795
1996-11-01 2.94408770344958
1996-12-01 2.95249485862662
1997-01-01 2.45611642345990
1997-02-01 2.28068148909389
1997-03-01 2.22102337752530
1997-04-01 2.11242439348368
1997-05-01 1.81476541447943
1997-06-01 1.69470305149229
1997-07-01 1.87930506209582
1997-08-01 1.93189680568010
1997-09-01 1.93814937699938
1997-10-01 1.68115369847904
1997-11-01 2.02955669837511
1997-12-01 2.04433911512786
1998-01-01 2.29398570628390
1998-02-01 1.77877660623000
1998-03-01 1.46024535242118
1998-04-01 1.26821891956067
1998-05-01 1.28896554521285
1998-06-01 1.50267497322118
1998-07-01 1.27850512820859
1998-08-01 1.75729744847876
1998-09-01 2.48073621404038
1998-10-01 2.85911502572590
1998-11-01 1.96121045955216
1998-12-01 2.04259786059159
1999-01-01 1.44202973797905
1999-02-01 1.20167970179689
1999-03-01 0.75735862587665
1999-04-01 1.00753148545467
1999-05-01 0.71484515676079
1999-06-01 0.43059349997514
1999-07-01 0.32929105701205
1999-08-01 0.39672714054723
1999-09-01 0.45658272396905
1999-10-01 0.42676889711270
1999-11-01 0.24395845486010
1999-12-01 0.02639119425673
2000-01-01 -0.30365587786610
2000-02-01 -0.04289460642380
2000-03-01 0.21041464355735
2000-04-01 0.41997468193579
2000-05-01 0.01550278834496
2000-06-01 0.31904592154787
2000-07-01 0.41285312029425
2000-08-01 0.63447538642230
2000-09-01 0.63178292466575
2000-10-01 1.21193596870590
2000-11-01 1.10180791880762
2000-12-01 1.56976264679645
2001-01-01 1.66629199654638
2001-02-01 1.67381288985751
2001-03-01 2.39242353105568
2001-04-01 1.77586336655280
2001-05-01 1.39938811234650
2001-06-01 1.60688214797500
2001-07-01 1.68443782222390
2001-08-01 1.98408114613557
2001-09-01 2.88100811330000
2001-10-01 2.60128896300000
2001-11-01 2.26148483070000
2001-12-01 1.78245617610000
2002-01-01 1.93744617434762
2002-02-01 2.14866320993684
2002-03-01 1.71980988650000
2002-04-01 1.96894705347273
2002-05-01 2.25562103680909
2002-06-01 2.86237195840000
2002-07-01 3.79321550403636
2002-08-01 3.98911060092727
2002-09-01 4.69808941840000
2002-10-01 4.53639958778182
2002-11-01 4.36581136032632
2002-12-01 4.34362078092381
2003-01-01 4.26649474824286
2003-02-01 4.88012026351579
2003-03-01 4.82859445257619
2003-04-01 4.71403170444762
2003-05-01 4.79375781839048
2003-06-01 4.64612739473333
2003-07-01 4.15316378660000
2003-08-01 3.76121325934286
2003-09-01 3.79658041889048
2003-10-01 3.76668047029091
2003-11-01 3.89548243683333
2003-12-01 3.82561565585454
2004-01-01 3.74574984460000
2004-02-01 3.80820442936316
2004-03-01 4.28611792757391
2004-04-01 3.84932702700476
2004-05-01 3.88405272050000
2004-06-01 3.70944962535238
2004-07-01 4.13812018384762
2004-08-01 4.51225415668182
2004-09-01 4.57717572270000
2004-10-01 4.72090621950000
2004-11-01 4.36300811200000
2004-12-01 4.28526336553637
2005-01-01 4.40372443070000
2005-02-01 4.38938215331053
2005-03-01 4.25562825903636
2005-04-01 4.61229105468571
2005-05-01 4.82372858914762
2005-06-01 4.91668630451818
2005-07-01 4.74499150620000
2005-08-01 4.77060525838696
2005-09-01 4.90644644283810
2005-10-01 4.91905010280000
2005-11-01 4.68444048190000
2005-12-01 4.60452616743809
2006-01-01 4.70720209420000
2006-02-01 4.53774353992105
2006-03-01 4.31580989459565
2006-04-01 4.09687018736316
2006-05-01 4.30864298270909
2006-06-01 4.62194016562727
2006-07-01 4.54361912020000
2006-08-01 4.63647002501304
2006-09-01 4.71392283380000
2006-10-01 4.52458505930476
2006-11-01 4.59220050006190
2006-12-01 4.61155200390000
2007-01-01 4.18094068192857
2007-02-01 4.04898673499474
2007-03-01 4.57073109814545
2007-04-01 4.15512282580000
2007-05-01 4.03262646163636
2007-06-01 3.76252653068571
2007-07-01 3.80620660468095
2007-08-01 4.81124259312174
2007-09-01 4.43419846584737
2007-10-01 4.42785453147273
2007-11-01 5.08239187920000
2007-12-01 5.17052028280000
2008-01-01 5.99203536257619
2008-02-01 5.86504588650000
2008-03-01 6.40619756380000
2008-04-01 5.85831101896573
2008-05-01 5.40139743522908
2008-06-01 5.59578018003047
2008-07-01 6.25073877530653
2008-08-01 5.96281355298711
2008-09-01 6.93233993659366
2008-10-01 8.31130310569268
2008-11-01 8.73694325922563
2008-12-01 7.98793706866921
2009-01-01 8.05026199962808
2009-02-01 7.03955844934376
2009-03-01 7.20330101039335
2009-04-01 6.64692929843963
2009-05-01 5.70115467102508
2009-06-01 5.23573854134012
2009-07-01 5.38615213281467
2009-08-01 5.19760561578080
2009-09-01 5.10493879971545
2009-10-01 4.93635649371990
2009-11-01 5.23603313324910
2009-12-01 5.19793131028101
2010-01-01 5.25126037081086
2010-02-01 5.78222714141631
2010-03-01 5.46137893077852
2010-04-01 5.20976942213204
2010-05-01 6.54470934320297
2010-06-01 6.84807414724505
2010-07-01 7.15986189376431
2010-08-01 7.77083502709029
2010-09-01 7.63594879885532
2010-10-01 7.35420624684428
2010-11-01 7.32815170766603
2010-12-01 6.48256687530822
2011-01-01 6.39738437486077
2011-02-01 5.95791145490971
2011-03-01 6.74344074118824
2011-04-01 6.57630094126917
2011-05-01 6.91056378722141
2011-06-01 7.61427520271775
2011-07-01 7.23227729143923
2011-08-01 8.89604554062920
2011-09-01 9.25269677158387
2011-10-01 8.97853856346270
2011-11-01 9.01086796618091
2011-12-01 9.25563482344572
2012-01-01 8.41924748064734
2012-02-01 8.23245532886021
2012-03-01 7.81317644954052
2012-04-01 8.31424229074018
2012-05-01 9.00772920285453
2012-06-01 9.27444963755412
2012-07-01 8.77469315152172
2012-08-01 8.40111865133512
2012-09-01 8.13491928953440
2012-10-01 8.14225987218375
2012-11-01 8.87002795169727
2012-12-01 8.37785417060164
2013-01-01 8.01845717861252
2013-02-01 7.70915969025980
2013-03-01 7.63470082061444
2013-04-01 7.92010987135572
2013-05-01 7.28370057919307
2013-06-01 7.06434128018767
2013-07-01 6.48589645108104
2013-08-01 6.27893719082149
2013-09-01 6.10433841568176
2013-10-01 6.44603988696323
2013-11-01 6.19134496395419
2013-12-01 5.93052925871541
2014-01-01 5.88723978847488
2014-02-01 6.02883234772136
2014-03-01 5.95024442748786
2014-04-01 5.96211142807208
2014-05-01 6.13959204094832
2014-06-01 5.93624028517505
2014-07-01 5.89167660308481
2014-08-01 6.17461767512176
2014-09-01 5.91837917469010
2014-10-01 6.62722294600448
2014-11-01 6.00232430667366
2014-12-01 6.16300629487464
2015-01-01 6.33914197358748
2015-02-01 5.82575558956909
2015-03-01 5.79430811440289
2015-04-01 5.93152787082074
2015-05-01 5.72107765524613
2015-06-01 5.60465586411566
2015-07-01 5.68055868766695
2015-08-01 5.91608257620709
2015-09-01 6.14822911006009
2015-10-01 6.23911760913792
2015-11-01 5.77897527903824
2015-12-01 5.84004755087105
2016-01-01 6.51901880124640
2016-02-01 6.56592473127415
2016-03-01 6.15596241383602
2016-04-01 6.21064281396073
2016-05-01 6.34820817661512
2016-06-01 6.49516908241596
2016-07-01 6.37344831257276
2016-08-01 6.27256530526429
2016-09-01 6.39658031967359
2016-10-01 6.34837792694142
2016-11-01 5.92836626912045
2016-12-01 5.43307790161085
2017-01-01 5.61319523576650
2017-02-01 5.41908022520846
2017-03-01 5.32074745817305
2017-04-01 5.66908571735205
2017-05-01 5.67304430111075
2017-06-01 5.67325336659448
2017-07-01 5.39381674359457
2017-08-01 5.54217441592142
2017-09-01 5.53032418808696
2017-10-01 5.25440807165882
2017-11-01 5.34309699337217
2017-12-01 5.14398774200060
2018-01-01 4.99719313842924
2018-02-01 5.15465085116546
2018-03-01 5.15180302246192
2018-04-01 5.34330557232825
2018-05-01 5.30707649450116
2018-06-01 5.31191142986694
2018-07-01 5.17199544208200
2018-08-01 5.25015668283996
2018-09-01 5.00432624946363
2018-10-01 5.11552885845841
2018-11-01 5.44700323586154
2018-12-01 6.20369390200553
2019-01-01 5.96509539016428
2019-02-01 5.64522694771343
2019-03-01 5.64826923528041
2019-04-01 5.51559346621167
2019-05-01 5.79232389487430
2019-06-01 5.98600284018227
2019-07-01 5.87016584068618
2019-08-01 6.60857467479441
2019-09-01 6.23046869112807
2019-10-01 6.26245858696093
2019-11-01 5.97654232058493
2019-12-01 5.78986205825025
2020-01-01 5.76310289027919
2020-02-01 5.87197843114315
2020-03-01 8.33935680065579
2020-04-01 6.69399883560881
2020-05-01 6.29921850840407
2020-06-01 5.84818269718432
2020-07-01 5.73113943487897
2020-08-01 5.71124811000923
2020-09-01 5.77364772847924
2020-10-01 5.72074036088723
2020-11-01 5.74858905341579
2020-12-01 5.62543255946364
2021-01-01 5.46223281993684
2021-02-01 5.32179617638947
2021-03-01 4.98259510564348
2021-04-01 5.02729726404545
2021-05-01 5.31122183210000
2021-06-01 5.35597837161818
2021-07-01 5.59175214648571
2021-08-01 5.78854010982727
2021-09-01 5.66051625813810
2021-10-01 5.73854929880000
2021-11-01 5.52435071320000
2021-12-01 5.65468189236364
2022-01-01 5.52833558640000
2022-02-01 5.50530957904210
2022-03-01 5.54276178190000
2022-04-01 5.16357625670000
2022-05-01 5.75143168461905
2022-06-01 5.74772782330476
2022-07-01 5.93168209720000
2022-08-01 5.21508300712609
2022-09-01 5.03559984338095
2022-10-01 5.03882159030000
2022-11-01 4.63836618180000
2022-12-01 4.95573718627619
2023-01-01 4.52171537630000
2023-02-01 3.93121964032632
2023-03-01 4.36121958930870
2023-04-01 4.21641923910000
2023-05-01 4.14293306540000
2023-06-01 3.75179249061429
2023-07-01 3.39880653580000
2023-08-01 3.40953321844348
2023-09-01 3.16524925380000
2023-10-01 2.94532279432381
2023-11-01 3.08605225632857
2023-12-01 3.43509031830000
2024-01-01 3.23239242256667
2024-02-01 2.85228943560000
2024-03-01 2.79369884890000
   
Note: The data begin in October 1991. The figure shows the difference between the aggregate forward earnings-to-price ratio of Standard & Poor's 500 firms and the expected real Treasury yields, based on expected earnings for 12 months ahead. Expected real Treasury yields are calculated from the 10-year consumer price index inflation forecast, and the smoothed nominal yield curve is estimated from off-the-run securities. The median value is 4.71 percentage points.  
Source: Refinitiv, Institutional Brokers' Estimate System, North American Summary & Detail Estimates, Level 2, Current & History Data, Adjusted and Unadjusted, https://www.refinitiv.com/en/financial-data/company-data/institutional-brokers-estimate-system-ibes  

Note: The data begin in October 1991. The figure shows the difference between the aggregate forward earnings-to-price ratio of Standard & Poor's 500 firms and the expected real Treasury yields, based on expected earnings for 12 months ahead. Expected real Treasury yields are calculated from the 10-year consumer price index inflation forecast, and the smoothed nominal yield curve is estimated from off-the-run securities. The median value is 4.71 percentage points.

Source: Refinitiv, Institutional Brokers' Estimate System, North American Summary & Detail Estimates, Level 2, Current & History Data, Adjusted and Unadjusted, https://www.refinitiv.com/en/financial-data/company-data/institutional-brokers-estimate-system-ibes

Return to text
Figure 1.6. Volatility in equity markets decreased to levels slightly below the historical median

Percent

Date Option-implied volatility Realized volatility
1996-01-01 13.47363636 11.66238567
1996-02-01 15.033 11.493454
1996-03-01 17.76238095 14.57607113
1996-04-01 16.21222222 12.25491833
1996-05-01 16.14636364 11.31949173
1996-06-01 16.50352941 11.11662373
1996-07-01 17.97863636 15.04312882
1996-08-01 15.76045455 13.43977424
1996-09-01 16.578 11.18767424
1996-10-01 16.28636364 9.865934506
1996-11-01 15.997 10.26790981
1996-12-01 19.26095238 13.43262124
1997-01-01 19.61666667 14.60356121
1997-02-01 20.13947368 14.83327757
1997-03-01 20.17 14.64008525
1997-04-01 19.6955 17.17847815
1997-05-01 19.9247619 16.3777271
1997-06-01 20.19428571 15.00571023
1997-07-01 20.50857143 16.1724627
1997-08-01 23.0847619 18.12811184
1997-09-01 23.79947368 18.78124882
1997-10-01 23.87086957 18.83043988
1997-11-01 31.98421053 24.02649591
1997-12-01 26.27636364 18.53559882
1998-01-01 23.8665 17.91884635
1998-02-01 19.99894737 15.37681766
1998-03-01 20.03238095 12.6826908
1998-04-01 22.16210526 13.01640427
1998-05-01 20.874 13.9546656
1998-06-01 21.66272727 15.60755812
1998-07-01 20.23263158 14.62609381
1998-08-01 31.58809524 22.82230654
1998-09-01 38.132 34.25904836
1998-10-01 36.60818182 33.06170862
1998-11-01 26.223 23.16985669
1998-12-01 25.47909091 18.96371759
1999-01-01 27.96888889 19.52968616
1999-02-01 28.82263158 21.74546356
1999-03-01 25.30956522 20.66849313
1999-04-01 23.47857143 19.87385206
1999-05-01 26.2045 20.97133777
1999-06-01 23.54571429 19.27527892
1999-07-01 21.04904762 16.5598463
1999-08-01 24.32363636 17.7571731
1999-09-01 24.54142857 18.98236303
1999-10-01 24.02142857 20.92429409
1999-11-01 21.81809524 19.26973859
1999-12-01 22.15909091 16.90624646
2000-01-01 23.202 19.26505908
2000-02-01 23.5955 21.87584793
2000-03-01 22.73409091 24.40714366
2000-04-01 27.16421053 32.68535553
2000-05-01 26.37318182 28.67861002
2000-06-01 21.54 22.90813762
2000-07-01 19.893 17.99262622
2000-08-01 18.08869565 16.2227839
2000-09-01 19.6875 15.22018735
2000-10-01 25.2 23.37530335
2000-11-01 26.38285714 24.82952693
2000-12-01 26.5305 25.25826706
2001-01-01 24.91857143 27.37844257
2001-02-01 23.41157895 21.56441621
2001-03-01 28.5355 26.82836952
2001-04-01 28.134 28.26803323
2001-05-01 22.94409091 21.92374673
2001-06-01 20.94047619 18.08082817
2001-07-01 22.31619048 17.41799553
2001-08-01 21.86173913 16.98285386
2001-09-01 35.06533333 25.3550296
2001-10-01 32.61227273 27.43469893
2001-11-01 26.63095238 23.69637418
2001-12-01 23.72 18.80579075
2002-01-01 22.25285714 16.08109824
2002-02-01 22.87578947 19.01884182
2002-03-01 18.985 18.15715124
2002-04-01 19.90045455 16.35346642
2002-05-01 20.08772727 17.46977866
2002-06-01 25.271 21.14378276
2002-07-01 34.04954545 33.80175163
2002-08-01 33.74272727 37.99414927
2002-09-01 37.6475 31.14771787
2002-10-01 35.42954545 35.10444362
2002-11-01 28.175 29.82821716
2002-12-01 28.21047619 23.97816708
2003-01-01 27.50631579 21.46120427
2003-02-01 32.21842105 23.25760586
2003-03-01 30.63428571 24.01998943
2003-04-01 23.99190476 22.7447965
2003-05-01 20.23952381 19.40564122
2003-06-01 20.36238095 17.88553537
2003-07-01 19.16136364 17.95752962
2003-08-01 19.27428571 17.44715697
2003-09-01 19.53238095 14.63375777
2003-10-01 18.02347826 14.40427874
2003-11-01 17.40105263 13.1539275
2003-12-01 16.82636364 11.90607996
2004-01-01 15.95333333 11.13695581
2004-02-01 15.99842105 12.4212298
2004-03-01 17.6873913 13.11371511
2004-04-01 15.69857143 13.22640576
2004-05-01 17.705 15.30051799
2004-06-01 15.35714286 12.47310501
2004-07-01 15.50238095 11.56248462
2004-08-01 16.68409091 12.51448645
2004-09-01 14.08095238 10.51858841
2004-10-01 14.97 10.54510546
2004-11-01 13.57714286 11.21646259
2004-12-01 12.45954545 10.53785301
2005-01-01 13.438 10.68655987
2005-02-01 11.70894737 9.973891732
2005-03-01 13.12636364 10.45593389
2005-04-01 14.45904762 11.95581953
2005-05-01 13.96761905 13.13046261
2005-06-01 11.86863636 10.88098481
2005-07-01 11.049 10.29641372
2005-08-01 12.95130435 9.669158892
2005-09-01 12.62809524 10.33237682
2005-10-01 14.93761905 12.93804291
2005-11-01 12.14761905 11.98919343
2005-12-01 11.26 9.864184007
2006-01-01 12.036 9.747170922
2006-02-01 12.47105263 10.39304463
2006-03-01 11.69391304 9.672960582
2006-04-01 11.84736842 10.17810397
2006-05-01 14.45454545 11.87971029
2006-06-01 16.91863636 15.18586579
2006-07-01 15.326 13.81704596
2006-08-01 13.35173913 12.26214918
2006-09-01 12.1845 9.579982636
2006-10-01 11.30636364 8.872536834
2006-11-01 10.81761905 9.050503995
2006-12-01 10.9645 9.478303191
2007-01-01 11.0425 9.451635177
2007-02-01 11.15526316 9.092884881
2007-03-01 15.16272727 14.33500604
2007-04-01 12.933 11.40986817
2007-05-01 13.29772727 9.915917076
2007-06-01 14.94761905 11.41527857
2007-07-01 17.27333333 13.52112771
2007-08-01 25.02608696 23.43967274
2007-09-01 22.19894737 19.74790468
2007-10-01 19.11565217 15.49916803
2007-11-01 25.58238095 21.5172242
2007-12-01 21.651 21.00090665
2008-01-01 25.81619048 25.15092462
2008-02-01 25.456 27.95554214
2008-03-01 27.1035 26.73760223
2008-04-01 21.56272727 21.38314435
2008-05-01 18.30333333 16.81396978
2008-06-01 22.11047619 17.3942484
2008-07-01 24.32136364 23.06561682
2008-08-01 20.69571429 20.37973963
2008-09-01 30.23857143 30.12265324
2008-10-01 61.1773913 66.41476883
2008-11-01 62.66894737 72.36668294
2008-12-01 52.405 61.64360141
2009-01-01 44.683 43.43711506
2009-02-01 45.57052632 40.50466135
2009-03-01 44.79545455 42.74381681
2009-04-01 38.06380952 35.22168027
2009-05-01 31.978 29.40710016
2009-06-01 29.14045455 25.09971479
2009-07-01 26.16272727 21.5339721
2009-08-01 25.33714286 19.33639954
2009-09-01 24.92666667 17.49738284
2009-10-01 24.25227273 17.58189606
2009-11-01 23.789 19.49749008
2009-12-01 21.23954545 15.27652428
2010-01-01 20.64315789 12.84841613
2010-02-01 22.54 17.93159554
2010-03-01 17.7673913 14.13967574
2010-04-01 17.42428571 12.49505603
2010-05-01 31.9295 27.61427029
2010-06-01 29.91636364 27.00125195
2010-07-01 25.5652381 23.03517119
2010-08-01 24.74590909 18.90467759
2010-09-01 22.51761905 16.84679411
2010-10-01 20.37333333 14.89887056
2010-11-01 20.09571429 13.94727549
2010-12-01 17.56954545 11.84950309
2011-01-01 17.3155 9.743155088
2011-02-01 17.43 10.63515465
2011-03-01 20.72347826 14.31237781
2011-04-01 16.244 12.41946126
2011-05-01 16.91142857 12.36751059
2011-06-01 19.15318182 13.5669977
2011-07-01 19.2275 13.78622192
2011-08-01 35.02913043 31.738725
2011-09-01 36.53 30.9649038
2011-10-01 32.82904762 30.17709197
2011-11-01 31.94190476 25.02953474
2011-12-01 25.04761905 20.63047671
2012-01-01 20.228 15.47977278
2012-02-01 18.4205 12.41739669
2012-03-01 16.16727273 10.90793753
2012-04-01 17.823 11.50375383
2012-05-01 21.00181818 13.72923073
2012-06-01 21.13095238 15.57652701
2012-07-01 17.5652381 14.80977883
2012-08-01 15.68956522 13.14136912
2012-09-01 15.28473684 10.98327091
2012-10-01 16.27619048 11.27449192
2012-11-01 16.70190476 13.81901006
2012-12-01 17.307 12.88750836
2013-01-01 13.5052381 11.75424522
2013-02-01 14.07263158 9.648772095
2013-03-01 13.0315 10.13832124
2013-04-01 13.96727273 11.45569474
2013-05-01 13.49363636 11.61553946
2013-06-01 17.2715 14.50887198
2013-07-01 13.97454545 13.49045667
2013-08-01 14.21 10.40463347
2013-09-01 14.692 10.69828595
2013-10-01 15.40782609 11.21423391
2013-11-01 12.924 9.893396379
2013-12-01 14.19238095 9.503114701
2014-01-01 14.24095238 9.338864052
2014-02-01 15.47 11.77395183
2014-03-01 14.83666667 11.6434045
2014-04-01 14.19809524 12.2070991
2014-05-01 12.4752381 10.98734873
2014-06-01 11.54142857 8.258735318
2014-07-01 12.29636364 7.98397404
2014-08-01 13.49190476 9.824445597
2014-09-01 13.46666667 8.81551279
2014-10-01 18.05869565 15.81532834
2014-11-01 13.41315789 13.39225976
2014-12-01 16.29227273 12.67313385
2015-01-01 19.1195 15.75383522
2015-02-01 15.90421053 15.05512141
2015-03-01 14.81272727 11.90381795
2015-04-01 13.4947619 11.36081023
2015-05-01 13.3385 10.86825684
2015-06-01 14.33954545 10.18163004
2015-07-01 14.35272727 11.1968485
2015-08-01 19.42809524 17.1517167
2015-09-01 24.37714286 26.92039889
2015-10-01 16.78954545 19.55186774
2015-11-01 16.21 14.11959242
2015-12-01 18.02545455 14.75934777
2016-01-01 23.71789474 20.97195789
2016-02-01 22.517 23.78344769
2016-03-01 15.84909091 17.43656587
2016-04-01 14.30047619 12.5645374
2016-05-01 14.85285714 11.45319205
2016-06-01 17.77454545 11.11906531
2016-07-01 13.1585 11.534784
2016-08-01 12.39956522 8.422804092
2016-09-01 14.21952381 9.498799383
2016-10-01 14.5852381 9.8619426
2016-11-01 15.23619048 10.74371613
2016-12-01 12.47238095 9.007377664
2017-01-01 11.6085 8.066059822
2017-02-01 11.53052632 7.166251708
2017-03-01 11.89782609 7.203704107
2017-04-01 13.13631579 8.490547815
2017-05-01 10.86227273 7.244986177
2017-06-01 10.51363636 7.010816564
2017-07-01 10.2645 7.117782499
2017-08-01 11.97565217 6.905470645
2017-09-01 10.438 6.538899662
2017-10-01 10.12545455 5.272001869
2017-11-01 10.54047619 5.842689559
2017-12-01 10.2645 7.232389142
2018-01-01 11.06238095 6.772977813
2018-02-01 22.46473684 20.56510234
2018-03-01 19.02380952 19.25496499
2018-04-01 18.26761905 19.57384007
2018-05-01 14.12454545 14.80530056
2018-06-01 13.67809524 11.04149947
2018-07-01 13.14761905 10.02508051
2018-08-01 12.54695652 8.267995236
2018-09-01 12.91052632 8.195684491
2018-10-01 19.35217391 14.67247947
2018-11-01 19.38904762 20.33367997
2018-12-01 24.95315789 24.22344362
2019-01-01 19.57238095 24.80449517
2019-02-01 15.23473684 16.15479904
2019-03-01 14.4852381 12.53617184
2019-04-01 12.94904762 10.41723909
2019-05-01 16.72181818 11.95670524
2019-06-01 15.836 12.29817202
2019-07-01 13.30590909 9.339660246
2019-08-01 18.97909091 15.50235222
2019-09-01 15.559 13.71700059
2019-10-01 15.46652174 12.93408222
2019-11-01 12.5235 9.150912123
2019-12-01 13.75666667 8.396397103
2020-01-01 13.94095238 7.98081864
2020-02-01 19.62894737 12.23216019
2020-03-01 57.73681818 56.5382721
2020-04-01 41.45380952 53.39105497
2020-05-01 30.897 32.74448108
2020-06-01 31.11954545 25.61551251
2020-07-01 26.84045455 21.49541866
2020-08-01 22.88952381 15.36356757
2020-09-01 27.64761905 20.53446801
2020-10-01 29.43863636 19.58070848
2020-11-01 24.9955 20.03044461
2020-12-01 22.37409091 14.54405218
2021-01-01 24.91 13.95118225
2021-02-01 23.14052632 15.05396
2021-03-01 21.84304348 18.37031421
2021-04-01 17.41619048 13.22659467
2021-05-01 19.7605 12.82061075
2021-06-01 16.95681818 10.59941079
2021-07-01 17.60333333 9.523023623
2021-08-01 17.47272727 8.992107242
2021-09-01 19.8247619 9.902384793
2021-10-01 17.87142857 13.14089044
2021-11-01 18.50047619 10.75320904
2021-12-01 21.35454545 15.78991131
2022-01-01 23.181 17.92177959
2022-02-01 25.74842105 24.05459133
2022-03-01 26.96869565 24.40627562
2022-04-01 24.3735 19.57427917
2022-05-01 29.44571429 27.65705414
2022-06-01 28.1 26.56541939
2022-07-01 24.8685 24.16940944
2022-08-01 22.16956522 18.57859663
2022-09-01 27.40619048 21.36399186
2022-10-01 30.00571429 24.77333285
2022-11-01 23.43619048 23.45804447
2022-12-01 21.78428571 20.06842983
2023-01-01 20.203 18.86650155
2023-02-01 20.06210526 18.01253239
2023-03-01 21.64434783 18.39832428
2023-04-01 17.81789474 14.96340385
2023-05-01 17.64409091 12.84637268
2023-06-01 13.99428571 11.65192445
2023-07-01 13.944 9.794784524
2023-08-01 15.85391304 10.99302718
2023-09-01 15.241 11.22469361
2023-10-01 18.88772727 14.02808809
2023-11-01 14.07714286 12.85109814
2023-12-01 12.7185 10.58824329
2024-01-01 13.3952381 10.14732706
2024-02-01 13.944 10.2334945
2024-03-01 13.7875 10.20468152

Note: Realized volatility is computed from an exponentially weighted moving average of 5-minute daily realized variances with 75 percent of the weight distributed over the past 20 business days. Median refers to the median option-implied volatility.

Source: Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) accessed via Bloomberg Finance L.P.; Federal Reserve Board staff estimates.

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Figure 1.7. Corporate bond yields fell slightly to levels near their historical medians

This is a line chart titled "Corporate bond yields fell slightly to levels near their historical medians." The x-axis measures time and ranges from years 1997 to 2024. The y-axis ranges from 0 to 24 percent. The data are monthly and there are two variables plotted on the chart. The first line is labeled "High-yield" and is designated by a black line. It begins at around 9 percent in 1997 and rises gradually to around 13 percent in 2002. It falls to around 8 percent in 2003 and remains there until 2007. The curve rises to 11 in early 2008, before spiking to about 22 percent in late 2008. The series falls sharply to about 9 percent in 2009 before decreasing more slowly to 7 percent in 2011. The series generally remains around 6 percent through 2020, with local spikes to around 9 in late 2011, early 2016, and early 2020. The series stays around 4 percent in 2021 before rising gradually to about 9 percent by October 2022. The series decreases slightly throughout 2023 before jumping back up to 9 percent and stabilizing at 7 percent for the most recent months. The second line is labeled "Triple-B" and is designated by a blue line. It begins at around 7 percent in 1997, fluctuates between 6 and 9 percent until 2002, and rises to 10 percent in late 2008. The series falls sharply to around 5 percent in late 2009. It remains between 3 and 5 percent from 2010 to 2019. It has a spike in early 2020 from 2 to 5 percent then decreases back to around 2 percent in October 2020. It hovers at the level through the end of 2021. The series then rises to 6 percent by the end of 2022 and falls back to around 5 percent in early 2023. The series hovers between 5 and 6 percent through the end of the series.

Note: The triple-B series reflects the effective yield of the ICE Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML) triple-B U.S. Corporate Index (C0A4), and the high-yield series reflects the effective yield of the ICE BofAML U.S. High Yield Index (H0A0).

Source: ICE Data Indices, LLC, used with permission.

Return to text
Figure 1.8. Corporate bond spreads narrowed to low levels relative to their historical distributions

This is a line chart titled "Corporate bond spreads narrowed to low levels relative to their historical distributions." The x-axis measures time and ranges from 1997 to 2024. The data are monthly, and there are two variables plotted on the chart. The first line is labeled "High-yield" and is designated by a black line. This line corresponds to the values on the right y-axis, which ranges from 0 to 24 percentage points. It begins at around 3 percentage points in 1997 and rises steadily, with local peaks in 1999, late 2000, and mid-2001, to around 10 percentage points by 2002. The series falls to 4 percentage points by the end of 2004 and then declines slowly to around 2 percent until 2007. The series then rises rapidly to its peak in late 2008 of around 20 percentage points. It then falls steeply in 2009 to around 6 percentage points before it falls gradually to 4 percentage points in 2011. In late 2011, the series spikes to 8 percentage points, before falling steadily to around 4 percentage points in 2014. The series rises gradually from 2014 to 2016 to 7 percentage points, then falls to around 4 percentage points again in 2017, remaining there through 2019. In early 2020, the series jumps to almost 9 percentage points then drops to about 5 percentage points in October. It then steadily decreases to about 3 percentage points in April 2021 and remains there until early 2022. The series then begins rising gradually again to around 5 percentage points in October 2022, then decreases slightly to just below 4 percentage points by April 2023. The series shows a slight uptick closer to a value of 4 percentage points in September 2023 and declines to 3 percentage points by the end of the series in March 2024. The second line is labeled "Triple B" and is designated by a blue line. This line corresponds to the values on the left y-axis, which ranges from 0 to 12 percentage points. It begins at just under 1 percentage point in 1997, rises to around 3.5 percentage points by the end of 2002. The series declines to around 1 percentage point by the start of 2004 and remains there until mid-2007. From there, it rapidly rises to its peak in late 2008 of around 7.7 percentage points. The series then falls steeply in 2009 to around 3 percentage points and declines further to below 2 percentage points in 2011. The series jumps to 3 percentage points in mid-2011 before declining slowly to 1.5 percentage points in 2014. The series then rises gradually to around 3 percentage points in early 2016, then declines to around 1 percentage point by early 2018. The series remains around 1.5 percentage points from 2018 through early 2020 before jumping to almost 4 percentage points in March 2020. The series then decreases to 1 percent by April 2021 and remains there through mid-2022, where it climbs to around 2 percentage points. The value gently declines throughout 2023 and early 2024, ending at 1.1 percentage points in March 2024.

Note: The triple-B series reflects the option-adjusted spread of the ICE Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML) triple-B U.S. Corporate Index (C0A4), and the high-yield series reflects the option-adjusted spread of the ICE BofAML U.S. High Yield Index (H0A0).

Source: ICE Data Indices, LLC, used with permission.

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Figure 1.9. The excess bond premium fell slightly but remained near the middle of the historical range

Percentage points

Date Excess bond premium
1997-01-01 -0.341378592
1997-02-01 -0.460756757
1997-03-01 -0.486792226
1997-04-01 -0.445170707
1997-05-01 -0.442488534
1997-06-01 -0.544831451
1997-07-01 -0.516571605
1997-08-01 -0.510807348
1997-09-01 -0.562775122
1997-10-01 -0.442270491
1997-11-01 -0.334817257
1997-12-01 -0.402776305
1998-01-01 -0.363434441
1998-02-01 -0.336640585
1998-03-01 -0.385936345
1998-04-01 -0.414648156
1998-05-01 -0.377166149
1998-06-01 -0.340166852
1998-07-01 -0.302268502
1998-08-01 0.094220519
1998-09-01 0.079474952
1998-10-01 0.204564331
1998-11-01 0.188551041
1998-12-01 0.050982652
1999-01-01 0.047250112
1999-02-01 -0.173381439
1999-03-01 -0.163296856
1999-04-01 -0.205292705
1999-05-01 -0.199647096
1999-06-01 -0.139740891
1999-07-01 -0.089152208
1999-08-01 -0.035158469
1999-09-01 0.096426153
1999-10-01 0.110177605
1999-11-01 0.075153326
1999-12-01 -0.153508901
2000-01-01 0.029329571
2000-02-01 0.120434816
2000-03-01 0.387849988
2000-04-01 0.544895095
2000-05-01 0.724647095
2000-06-01 0.762615862
2000-07-01 0.844512228
2000-08-01 0.993876321
2000-09-01 1.105544707
2000-10-01 1.501712004
2000-11-01 1.583742098
2000-12-01 1.579503512
2001-01-01 1.126268676
2001-02-01 1.151416799
2001-03-01 1.086112726
2001-04-01 0.907904999
2001-05-01 0.770532245
2001-06-01 1.004550032
2001-07-01 0.770933709
2001-08-01 0.74446272
2001-09-01 1.212690514
2001-10-01 1.028560618
2001-11-01 -0.069398074
2001-12-01 0.412145841
2002-01-01 0.565986047
2002-02-01 0.767539925
2002-03-01 0.285874074
2002-04-01 0.404525273
2002-05-01 0.496696194
2002-06-01 0.937391263
2002-07-01 1.534052416
2002-08-01 1.431614008
2002-09-01 1.607073755
2002-10-01 1.413196026
2002-11-01 1.027809306
2002-12-01 0.881496888
2003-01-01 0.834158529
2003-02-01 0.628878452
2003-03-01 0.128697183
2003-04-01 0.0309615
2003-05-01 -0.497411447
2003-06-01 -0.406941603
2003-07-01 -1.053190286
2003-08-01 -0.214685268
2003-09-01 -0.556377062
2003-10-01 -0.534010523
2003-11-01 -0.554836891
2003-12-01 -0.532881274
2004-01-01 -0.720377036
2004-02-01 -0.34678349
2004-03-01 -0.530728921
2004-04-01 -0.744727742
2004-05-01 -0.368577262
2004-06-01 -0.386550869
2004-07-01 -0.326583574
2004-08-01 -0.436176339
2004-09-01 -0.5567513
2004-10-01 -0.545452047
2004-11-01 -0.684985694
2004-12-01 -0.732288466
2005-01-01 -0.715548852
2005-02-01 -0.933908363
2005-03-01 -0.638805402
2005-04-01 -0.385857745
2005-05-01 -0.311823826
2005-06-01 -0.459484357
2005-07-01 -0.560881499
2005-08-01 -0.564202533
2005-09-01 -0.473514167
2005-10-01 -0.353162559
2005-11-01 -0.321514038
2005-12-01 -0.291669704
2006-01-01 -0.374242769
2006-02-01 -0.329382151
2006-03-01 -0.413681262
2006-04-01 -0.458258666
2006-05-01 -0.363082849
2006-06-01 -0.377320526
2006-07-01 -0.284106931
2006-08-01 -0.314604491
2006-09-01 -0.36850879
2006-10-01 -0.402633338
2006-11-01 -0.372555231
2006-12-01 -0.498179163
2007-01-01 -0.561538027
2007-02-01 -0.56369032
2007-03-01 -0.380899848
2007-04-01 -0.38062806
2007-05-01 -0.5942433
2007-06-01 -0.381903716
2007-07-01 0.020175065
2007-08-01 0.13658184
2007-09-01 0.070133735
2007-10-01 -0.017461997
2007-11-01 0.331979307
2007-12-01 0.478924971
2008-01-01 0.716753276
2008-02-01 0.921306927
2008-03-01 1.146651272
2008-04-01 0.670229189
2008-05-01 0.674779429
2008-06-01 0.816289856
2008-07-01 1.07668813
2008-08-01 1.223562152
2008-09-01 1.802235749
2008-10-01 3.505405935
2008-11-01 3.287386081
2008-12-01 3.434612917
2009-01-01 2.852747699
2009-02-01 3.219217498
2009-03-01 2.779292553
2009-04-01 2.261261713
2009-05-01 1.392963535
2009-06-01 0.958035234
2009-07-01 0.354484533
2009-08-01 0.084875569
2009-09-01 0.064863195
2009-10-01 -0.139221898
2009-11-01 -0.011603752
2009-12-01 -0.468745152
2010-01-01 -0.202241812
2010-02-01 -0.005845354
2010-03-01 -0.160873465
2010-04-01 -0.273883037
2010-05-01 -0.121926314
2010-06-01 0.043881885
2010-07-01 0.161324108
2010-08-01 -0.286172532
2010-09-01 -0.01773387
2010-10-01 -0.029063606
2010-11-01 -0.149156555
2010-12-01 -0.414755241
2011-01-01 -0.036904031
2011-02-01 -0.280544428
2011-03-01 -0.319143733
2011-04-01 -0.274204309
2011-05-01 -0.15225431
2011-06-01 -0.029390153
2011-07-01 -0.075566246
2011-08-01 -0.103262864
2011-09-01 0.440073132
2011-10-01 -0.091291626
2011-11-01 0.498686125
2011-12-01 0.272085715
2012-01-01 0.169705499
2012-02-01 0.04216011
2012-03-01 -0.348358167
2012-04-01 -0.178299525
2012-05-01 -0.085295994
2012-06-01 0.151386351
2012-07-01 -0.020503108
2012-08-01 -0.219471222
2012-09-01 -0.165862595
2012-10-01 -0.194617768
2012-11-01 -0.063886107
2012-12-01 -0.178168591
2013-01-01 -0.110091977
2013-02-01 -0.049275363
2013-03-01 -0.113697465
2013-04-01 -0.142298829
2013-05-01 -0.504019776
2013-06-01 -0.355288846
2013-07-01 -0.024649505
2013-08-01 -0.129448663
2013-09-01 -0.144525104
2013-10-01 -0.056655139
2013-11-01 -0.017293505
2013-12-01 -0.169109277
2014-01-01 -0.318673738
2014-02-01 -0.225254708
2014-03-01 -0.287614172
2014-04-01 -0.36826282
2014-05-01 -0.381772465
2014-06-01 -0.316255156
2014-07-01 -0.319603615
2014-08-01 -0.314922135
2014-09-01 -0.211969565
2014-10-01 -0.212532602
2014-11-01 0.061323386
2014-12-01 0.09367556
2015-01-01 -0.02741207
2015-02-01 -0.273491809
2015-03-01 -0.119076367
2015-04-01 0.008866754
2015-05-01 0.054106669
2015-06-01 0.149703724
2015-07-01 0.212963921
2015-08-01 0.398904949
2015-09-01 0.537481461
2015-10-01 0.420371708
2015-11-01 0.508315542
2015-12-01 0.686305426
2016-01-01 0.917501575
2016-02-01 0.945779162
2016-03-01 0.569088712
2016-04-01 0.225135907
2016-05-01 0.237191731
2016-06-01 0.050658278
2016-07-01 -0.00144443
2016-08-01 -0.033565096
2016-09-01 -0.083891539
2016-10-01 -0.088238951
2016-11-01 -0.726708697
2016-12-01 -0.250782325
2017-01-01 -0.203477088
2017-02-01 -0.189571273
2017-03-01 -0.179758805
2017-04-01 -0.132423025
2017-05-01 -0.182224344
2017-06-01 -0.140724843
2017-07-01 -0.16665312
2017-08-01 -0.095340333
2017-09-01 -0.27001982
2017-10-01 -0.23054888
2017-11-01 -0.147272841
2017-12-01 -0.209004873
2018-01-01 -0.405258573
2018-02-01 -0.25310053
2018-03-01 -0.11415488
2018-04-01 -0.290513036
2018-05-01 -0.203316288
2018-06-01 0.015889711
2018-07-01 -0.138598593
2018-08-01 -0.107475036
2018-09-01 -0.186615939
2018-10-01 -0.015512904
2018-11-01 0.129521277
2018-12-01 0.321656877
2019-01-01 0.152957621
2019-02-01 0.041425444
2019-03-01 -0.145115221
2019-04-01 -0.030624617
2019-05-01 -0.040561
2019-06-01 -0.019135844
2019-07-01 -0.068967307
2019-08-01 -0.181497578
2019-09-01 -0.259663237
2019-10-01 -0.251696732
2019-11-01 -0.199353661
2019-12-01 -0.313935005
2020-01-01 -0.271218686
2020-02-01 -0.174047697
2020-03-01 1.206990978
2020-04-01 0.647786211
2020-05-01 0.383727145
2020-06-01 0.032821844
2020-07-01 -0.180763875
2020-08-01 -0.306451489
2020-09-01 -0.023538888
2020-10-01 -0.22975045
2020-11-01 -0.488399225
2020-12-01 -0.526215283
2021-01-01 -0.676334023
2021-02-01 -0.957520732
2021-03-01 -0.760997038
2021-04-01 -0.502718027
2021-05-01 -0.439758336
2021-06-01 -0.593708333
2021-07-01 -0.561982207
2021-08-01 -0.488418925
2021-09-01 -0.649450131
2021-10-01 -0.525938419
2021-11-01 -0.444578306
2021-12-01 -0.445657058
2022-01-01 -0.344501003
2022-02-01 -0.209066147
2022-03-01 -0.801658493
2022-04-01 -0.287493295
2022-05-01 -0.119317097
2022-06-01 0.077000835
2022-07-01 -0.010338249
2022-08-01 -0.045164649
2022-09-01 0.026108886
2022-10-01 0.076195563
2022-11-01 -0.249611214
2022-12-01 -0.035978473
2023-01-01 -0.059099958
2023-02-01 -0.172297342
2023-03-01 -0.222744058
2023-04-01 0.133035001
2023-05-01 0.083327686
2023-06-01 0.133954325
2023-07-01 -0.02297682
2023-08-01 0.030761378
2023-09-01 -0.047038266
2023-10-01 0.19178664
2023-11-01 -0.099912552
2023-12-01 -0.252070115
2024-01-01 -0.104989805
2024-02-01 -0.167639507

Note: The excess bond premium (EBP) is a measure of bond market investors' risk sentiment. It is derived as the residual of a regression that models corporate bond spreads after controlling for expected default losses. By construction, its historical mean is zero. Positive (negative) EBP values indicate that investors' risk appetite is below (above) its historical mean.

Source: Federal Reserve Board staff calculations based on Lehman Brothers Fixed Income Database (Warga); Intercontinental Exchange, Inc., ICE Data Services; Center for Research in Security Prices, CRSP/Compustat Merged Database, Wharton Research Data Services; S&P Global, Compustat.

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Figure 1.10. Spreads on leveraged loans declined modestly

Percentage points

Date B (monthly) B (weekly) BB (monthly) BB (weekly)
1997-01-31     2.09188813  
1997-02-28     2.081784102  
1997-03-31     2.082131354  
1997-04-30     2.13128051  
1997-05-31     2.156636783  
1997-06-30     2.167234706  
1997-07-31 2.278659303   1.912117954  
1997-08-31 2.255190912   1.847993503  
1997-09-30 2.282264366   1.890312257  
1997-10-31 2.548701941   1.95239139  
1997-11-30 2.552277198   1.911238578  
1997-12-31 2.577663079   1.885312108  
1998-01-31 2.583286704   2.039621189  
1998-02-28 2.577240454   2.076864347  
1998-03-31 2.614346931   2.014244209  
1998-04-30 2.604711257   2.019649061  
1998-05-31 2.64727726   2.174256136  
1998-06-30 2.638384911   2.280400402  
1998-07-31 2.652981144   2.254612142  
1998-08-31 2.751058603   2.330406251  
1998-09-30 2.94176293   2.503683338  
1998-10-31 3.063245772   2.630212144  
1998-11-30 3.346695816   2.686889488  
1998-12-31 3.23167825   2.557427806  
1999-01-31 3.200453504   2.622222163  
1999-02-28 3.21252047   2.549691079  
1999-03-31 3.570720313   2.484316634  
1999-04-30 3.933362083   2.651588876  
1999-05-31 3.797347759   2.842941804  
1999-06-30 3.856619932   2.843767035  
1999-07-31 4.096399146   2.948887085  
1999-08-31 4.456923697   2.994047716  
1999-09-30 4.745677304   3.962524585  
1999-10-31 4.961565057   4.085427379  
1999-11-30 4.741948663   3.908859837  
1999-12-31 6.075945806   4.015088945  
2000-01-31 6.242112668   4.073318477  
2000-02-29 6.074316532   4.114062447  
2000-03-31 6.054808031   3.434830755  
2000-04-30 5.439305951   3.511192693  
2000-05-31 5.24555979   3.259028298  
2000-06-30 5.671585599   3.116330778  
2000-07-31 6.033401004   3.00189609  
2000-08-31 5.729202064   3.020411462  
2000-09-30 6.652208066   3.19167802  
2000-10-31 6.909706813   3.255724041  
2000-11-30 7.309964117   3.070969307  
2000-12-31 6.688836596   3.046207166  
2001-01-31 6.262165593   2.950594704  
2001-02-28 5.950374107   2.910251425  
2001-03-31 6.8348555   2.94681492  
2001-04-30 6.708736768   2.955077536  
2001-05-31 6.4951938   2.947355151  
2001-06-30 6.623167835   2.989296771  
2001-07-31 6.710761767   3.030494639  
2001-08-31 6.509984259   2.997834632  
2001-09-30 7.418618009   3.34538512  
2001-10-31 8.706155231   3.508112025  
2001-11-30 6.817658163   3.114308784  
2001-12-31 6.210143683   3.089209747  
2002-01-31 5.892862309   3.05192671  
2002-02-28 5.502441683   3.091428669  
2002-03-31 5.223070043   3.06572117  
2002-04-30 4.919820916   2.939460183  
2002-05-31 5.62215769   2.952333944  
2002-06-30 5.903710317   2.993291727  
2002-07-31 6.631473548   3.37911052  
2002-08-31 6.52683651   3.715267406  
2002-09-30 6.638053   3.750186118  
2002-10-31 7.374960799   4.639273938  
2002-11-30 6.718488029   4.137358247  
2002-12-31 6.581381678   3.51504978  
2003-01-31 6.104288712   3.600831789  
2003-02-28 6.296625981   3.55664379  
2003-03-31 6.031704463   3.56692318  
2003-04-30 5.107015923   3.580657336  
2003-05-31 4.659263532   3.351620841  
2003-06-30 4.475665852   3.242489052  
2003-07-31 4.512590154   3.032349549  
2003-08-31 4.724970075   3.006269321  
2003-09-30 4.979679712   2.980814917  
2003-10-31 4.823216865   2.937558894  
2003-11-30 4.776087956   2.853108173  
2003-12-31 4.514679285   2.609684261  
2004-01-31 4.030295882   2.505848458  
2004-02-29 4.20273622   2.450504955  
2004-03-31 3.917407114   2.381952191  
2004-04-30 3.919637007   2.333858047  
2004-05-28 4.062617639   2.40125276  
2004-06-25 3.770043862   2.34405188  
2004-07-30 3.843627933   2.255141151  
2004-08-31 3.690023757   2.201748435  
2004-09-30 3.613219159   2.136299164  
2004-10-29 3.423142673   2.101811115  
2004-11-30 3.258223484   2.072763693  
2004-12-31 3.205977599   2.014210966  
2005-01-31 3.252577924   1.980077793  
2005-02-25 3.142369917   1.937545734  
2005-03-31 3.047039139   1.850718315  
2005-04-29 3.295215816   1.826328866  
2005-05-31 3.124605675   1.860770294  
2005-06-30 3.098929284   1.840825021  
2005-07-29 3.038934267   1.765225638  
2005-08-30 2.977012124   1.684525925  
2005-09-30 2.959684756   1.725819089  
2005-10-28 3.004611488   1.771756347  
2005-11-30 2.893254531   1.783893172  
2005-12-30 2.812631245   1.808442761  
2006-01-31 2.823837991   1.745092629  
2006-02-28 2.78175102   1.681539632  
2006-03-31 2.739771964   1.68006846  
2006-04-28 2.737436009   1.660514413  
2006-05-31 2.673117132   1.727872182  
2006-06-30 2.674438506   1.835263297  
2006-07-28 2.698809064   1.875504449  
2006-08-31 2.740115341   1.86821573  
2006-09-29 2.738626971   1.86028665  
2006-10-31 2.697930732   1.827817963  
2006-11-30 2.702841826   1.966498489  
2006-12-29 2.725997941   1.94127587  
2007-01-31 2.600943861   1.913990437  
2007-02-28 2.527216925   1.740932619  
2007-03-30 2.492788553   1.770728531  
2007-04-27 2.464456807   1.79786483  
2007-05-31 2.411012615   1.785477596  
2007-06-29 2.698014075   2.010311422  
2007-07-31 3.478625362   2.824087826  
2007-08-31 3.593701588   2.997391968  
2007-09-28 3.341144765   2.711721162  
2007-10-26 3.285028147   2.637905571  
2007-11-30 3.85693643   3.062700596  
2007-12-28 4.158829705   2.929114293  
2008-01-31 4.975806018   3.743547176  
2008-02-29 6.073212249   4.376096615  
2008-03-28 7.208623221   4.324824068  
2008-04-30 6.348011313   3.682164953  
2008-05-30 6.379506401   3.587716478  
2008-06-27 6.39477656   3.862890484  
2008-07-31 7.173169589   4.179169073  
2008-08-29 7.65469665   4.233284712  
2008-09-30 10.60797989   5.941421106  
2008-10-31 17.04969574   9.274483593  
2008-11-28 20.89103789   11.0334419  
2008-12-31 24.76122466   11.47030365  
2009-01-30 20.69854071   8.744575104  
2009-02-27 20.75494273   7.85357321  
2009-03-31 20.31940445   7.791746152  
2009-04-30 15.78603819   5.76799071  
2009-05-29 12.39966035   5.560701626  
2009-06-30 10.23361646   4.856091479  
2009-07-31 8.497799368   4.186032619  
2009-08-31 7.807965623   4.133706674  
2009-09-30 6.96202797   4.006873408  
2009-10-30 6.36999189   4.195248107  
2009-11-30 6.704091026   4.526671541  
2009-12-31 6.020436669   3.882098136  
2010-01-29 5.673790358   3.699848283  
2010-02-26 5.782266113   3.813460697  
2010-03-31 5.27419835   3.499254325  
2010-04-30 5.046092783   3.42850474  
2010-05-28 6.10543623   3.988692698  
2010-06-30 6.427051577   4.166631782  
2010-07-30 5.980864621   4.014011967  
2010-08-31 5.981197026   4.006990999  
2010-09-30 5.619694567   3.88035424  
2010-10-29 5.220238996   3.658196956  
2010-11-30 5.614760701   3.709545132  
2010-12-31 5.289997081   3.68691684  
2011-01-31 4.800970166   3.506045183  
2011-02-28 4.819888371   3.521926073  
2011-03-31 4.854444575   3.436375211  
2011-04-29 4.89480425   3.41062736  
2011-05-31 5.041155125   3.571798755  
2011-06-30 5.350327752   3.812068758  
2011-07-29 5.424969659   3.820199304  
2011-08-31 6.751228372   5.110951751  
2011-09-30 6.846344185   4.688318525  
2011-10-31 6.055158395   4.018786804  
2011-11-30 6.539957601   4.244311218  
2011-12-30 6.334345527   4.155591121  
2012-01-31 5.709288282   3.854599736  
2012-02-29 5.334908472   3.801143705  
2012-03-30 5.374036092   3.757435533  
2012-04-30 5.381195508   3.914070372  
2012-05-31 5.861093971   4.262568286  
2012-06-29 5.792673471   4.248600792  
2012-07-31 5.877940539   4.100262473  
2012-08-31 5.694161908   4.167612129  
2012-09-28 5.547691177   3.962440438  
2012-10-31 5.490887841   3.833106587  
2012-11-30 5.604074257   3.83601469  
2012-12-31 5.492338231   3.840471158  
2013-01-31 5.28405064   3.719379441  
2013-02-28 5.320350623   3.861849518  
2013-03-28 5.135984135   3.72611154  
2013-04-30 5.038359816   3.786623846  
2013-05-31 4.869384084   3.62152864  
2013-06-28 4.976929952   3.587007172  
2013-07-31 4.821365022   3.333400388  
2013-08-30 4.921733386   3.409726628  
2013-09-30 4.993291222   3.456238912  
2013-10-31 4.901852852   3.430421305  
2013-11-22   4.916377784   3.499955765
2013-11-29   4.914891458   3.518233972
2013-12-06   4.898171004   3.524592769
2013-12-13   4.876331321   3.519265469
2013-12-20   4.862503347   3.460523049
2013-12-27   4.839803606   3.398370805
2014-01-03   4.839262079   3.369628791
2014-01-10   4.774945019   3.341352033
2014-01-17   4.739750726   3.352491454
2014-01-24   4.736467988   3.338112667
2014-01-31   4.770168272   3.373253137
2014-02-07   4.76437119   3.366453535
2014-02-14   4.738729262   3.423159641
2014-02-21   4.715267423   3.437046942
2014-02-28   4.709790526   3.323524114
2014-03-07   4.704533429   3.318906023
2014-03-14   4.681325461   3.320472077
2014-03-21   4.648603975   3.306092109
2014-03-28   4.652339321   3.318788066
2014-04-04   4.718304465   3.375574896
2014-04-11   4.696981957   3.409174123
2014-04-17   4.718402054   3.402645006
2014-04-25   4.755950876   3.453507459
2014-05-02   4.738825046   3.407384974
2014-05-09   4.732969317   3.372525312
2014-05-16   4.698471116   3.380386391
2014-05-23   4.706252087   3.389482277
2014-05-30   4.717653505   3.389951511
2014-06-06   4.699577443   3.400249916
2014-06-13   4.685820569   3.402507859
2014-06-20   4.690118843   3.389094774
2014-06-27   4.680845234   3.371392398
2014-07-03   4.666334523   3.383072886
2014-07-11   4.658575971   3.417841231
2014-07-18   4.665917099   3.415667513
2014-07-25   4.671093117   3.425566587
2014-08-01   4.74805781   3.498796139
2014-08-08   4.762578882   3.558336507
2014-08-15   4.802610647   3.631927077
2014-08-22   4.794545458   3.60877406
2014-08-29   4.758376975   3.575706016
2014-09-05   4.767268309   3.575215511
2014-09-12   4.819516024   3.628959008
2014-09-19   4.821836488   3.632569381
2014-09-26   4.901986285   3.712759185
2014-10-03   4.973162228   3.755308292
2014-10-10   4.986114632   3.782397376
2014-10-17   5.140122532   3.921464774
2014-10-24   5.085148349   3.837086684
2014-10-31   4.999332346   3.737800657
2014-11-07   5.011006849   3.706677336
2014-11-14   4.995262482   3.694548608
2014-11-21   5.005295081   3.676991038
2014-11-28   5.032323702   3.669957261
2014-12-05   5.139745754   3.690461408
2014-12-12   5.405282994   3.914272538
2014-12-19   5.519807965   3.949508522
2014-12-26   5.448301608   3.89882721
2015-01-02   5.443144343   3.88988542
2015-01-09   5.440880506   3.915570376
2015-01-16   5.451260026   3.893411429
2015-01-23   5.443209503   3.879602844
2015-01-30   5.471747275   3.925043577
2015-02-06   5.413791147   3.856426966
2015-02-13   5.334950359   3.794522836
2015-02-20   5.27347492   3.748249472
2015-02-27   5.22462584   3.728373996
2015-03-06   5.188786002   3.677835
2015-03-13   5.160951961   3.68595866
2015-03-20   5.212122718   3.703929496
2015-03-27   5.21040577   3.669109811
2015-04-02   5.176891929   3.661889197
2015-04-10   5.122567945   3.581800596
2015-04-17   5.136221039   3.563280056
2015-04-24   5.113677401   3.560362804
2015-05-01   5.11800049   3.548952597
2015-05-08   5.094962992   3.567037959
2015-05-15   5.111735564   3.595207081
2015-05-22   5.129718477   3.567322428
2015-05-29   5.138548929   3.56770722
2015-06-05   5.223016717   3.581797787
2015-06-12   5.276865047   3.607936474
2015-06-19   5.308696533   3.640718819
2015-06-26   5.309534447   3.624999743
2015-07-02   5.354256657   3.62705514
2015-07-10   5.340924057   3.593556675
2015-07-17   5.296042792   3.54833725
2015-07-24   5.312473852   3.552946258
2015-07-31   5.362804633   3.582230706
2015-08-07   5.3838736   3.624674017
2015-08-14   5.412196953   3.682274495
2015-08-21   5.483047648   3.708981882
2015-08-28   5.560346207   3.735472023
2015-09-04   5.41201616   3.719743088
2015-09-11   5.423930137   3.694121119
2015-09-18   5.445589999   3.675781383
2015-09-25   5.521814767   3.702046847
2015-10-02   5.747364413   3.781452424
2015-10-09   5.754071527   3.77081726
2015-10-16   5.78555008   3.780684027
2015-10-23   5.76314917   3.781348985
2015-10-30   5.768075991   3.848737724
2015-11-06   5.771258001   3.811053802
2015-11-13   5.899560083   3.899866721
2015-11-20   6.075623026   3.947751217
2015-11-27   6.114545324   3.916660319
2015-12-04   6.207904349   3.874484344
2015-12-11   6.660786963   3.95863275
2015-12-18   7.004504876   4.023014983
2015-12-24   7.076315778   4.049996674
2015-12-31   7.078051368   4.032757065
2016-01-08   7.116764079   4.006440014
2016-01-15   7.22109756   4.033594782
2016-01-22   7.463377685   4.140913827
2016-01-29   7.426786701   4.143736858
2016-02-05   7.459994834   4.112145558
2016-02-12   7.710244428   4.262792756
2016-02-19   7.524063928   4.267073355
2016-02-26   7.507702418   4.240147461
2016-03-04   7.245200099   4.113030235
2016-03-11   6.950796478   3.97372928
2016-03-18   6.563393002   3.763428872
2016-03-24   6.504210223   3.781129591
2016-04-01   6.280890574   3.805153009
2016-04-08   6.202166372   3.730850057
2016-04-15   5.807877417   3.690519535
2016-04-22   5.599083232   3.616925643
2016-04-29   5.521393475   3.603262417
2016-05-06   5.49952765   3.642831502
2016-05-13   5.463222133   3.650158304
2016-05-20   5.416815879   3.621082734
2016-05-27   5.332033623   3.579699503
2016-06-03   5.336304568   3.570474948
2016-06-10   5.289366572   3.608965167
2016-06-17   5.294908361   3.64507633
2016-06-24   5.3449611   3.641041079
2016-07-01   5.379635994   3.651662015
2016-07-08   5.33862199   3.622247218
2016-07-15   5.234737724   3.54090099
2016-07-22   5.147036813   3.483750552
2016-07-29   5.121639252   3.448759909
2016-08-05   5.098302719   3.469556608
2016-08-12   5.072111009   3.439328269
2016-08-19   5.132338019   3.444039376
2016-08-26   5.097572653   3.454411856
2016-09-02   5.042716598   3.426115971
2016-09-09   5.001575128   3.385679649
2016-09-16   5.000550277   3.366985965
2016-09-23   4.885045624   3.349084715
2016-09-30   4.883068377   3.341118431
2016-10-07   4.840306451   3.274930981
2016-10-14   4.860983165   3.27357159
2016-10-21   4.80530747   3.202489596
2016-10-28   4.779817803   3.193053394
2016-11-04   4.797016739   3.2485184
2016-11-10   4.799874378   3.272098817
2016-11-18   4.767751003   3.218538427
2016-11-25   4.74923311   3.20983697
2016-12-02   4.681702351   3.20028216
2016-12-09   4.593162295   3.094430078
2016-12-16   4.543337261   3.06594441
2016-12-23   4.59501723   3.071597498
2016-12-30   4.643367528   3.035776307
2017-01-06   4.567639132   3.019919741
2017-01-13   4.536574233   3.030115858
2017-01-20   4.556134591   3.056400182
2017-01-27   4.535020889   3.086673602
2017-02-03   4.50386572   3.060619592
2017-02-10   4.508648423   3.007438418
2017-02-17   4.448177485   2.951559206
2017-02-24   4.388560878   2.932189279
2017-03-03   4.342299593   2.884096232
2017-03-10   4.344391973   2.869587671
2017-03-17   4.321808281   2.85235147
2017-03-24   4.316396112   2.936968178
2017-03-31   4.250673997   2.909729816
2017-04-07   4.154828147   2.878882118
2017-04-13   4.115613652   2.850450981
2017-04-21   4.129010795   2.832789761
2017-04-28   4.126584476   2.81799605
2017-05-05   4.157895866   2.881186836
2017-05-12   4.130287386   2.882424329
2017-05-19   4.111150613   2.888773689
2017-05-26   4.038568302   2.885903683
2017-06-02   4.054623194   2.865969376
2017-06-09   4.034217058   2.869238168
2017-06-16   4.036661586   2.880127448
2017-06-23   4.070468801   2.864037435
2017-06-30   4.07836583   2.8391982
2017-07-07   4.069280898   2.833183299
2017-07-14   4.09480047   2.832880559
2017-07-21   4.090062724   2.804314364
2017-07-28   4.030225752   2.780963817
2017-08-04   4.032379197   2.752044259
2017-08-11   4.056409571   2.799437965
2017-08-18   4.066051766   2.778864261
2017-08-25   4.071799224   2.820702451
2017-09-01   4.059344133   2.852210068
2017-09-08   4.021957791   2.872634763
2017-09-15   4.017126073   2.890653771
2017-09-22   4.022401819   2.824808444
2017-09-29   4.01261109   2.715818027
2017-10-06   3.980137602   2.668259166
2017-10-13   3.945235935   2.666213575
2017-10-20   3.925018654   2.650542487
2017-10-27   3.944708872   2.651767964
2017-11-03   3.965874722   2.626799792
2017-11-10   3.982528913   2.62230663
2017-11-17   3.961012651   2.646345535
2017-11-24   3.954865118   2.637152497
2017-12-01   3.948242077   2.628638214
2017-12-08   3.943982507   2.607844296
2017-12-15   3.999049602   2.622258174
2017-12-22   3.911517766   2.62741151
2017-12-29   3.886199593   2.59495622
2018-01-05   3.873321913   2.552850627
2018-01-12   3.80788949   2.543632317
2018-01-19   3.77164134   2.524089106
2018-01-26   3.733860015   2.495947616
2018-02-02   3.702337911   2.43815613
2018-02-09   3.741603294   2.481185358
2018-02-16   3.730653859   2.486374253
2018-02-23   3.727767465   2.502382641
2018-03-02   3.722636118   2.513098554
2018-03-09   3.721717182   2.509580728
2018-03-16   3.704618344   2.49426911
2018-03-23   3.72231577   2.490181212
2018-03-30   3.723025195   2.492851524
2018-04-06   3.716121272   2.494986203
2018-04-13   3.683437381   2.488722757
2018-04-20   3.660879698   2.456453005
2018-04-27   3.668937741   2.438894246
2018-05-04   3.684271493   2.439840055
2018-05-11   3.679308511   2.44477163
2018-05-18   3.67525846   2.469683352
2018-05-25   3.691765262   2.49195051
2018-06-01   3.723323407   2.484480391
2018-06-08   3.713825007   2.486143205
2018-06-15   3.725509472   2.49076378
2018-06-22   3.745688643   2.516636858
2018-06-29   3.763646519   2.552103429
2018-07-06   3.750008316   2.531111257
2018-07-13   3.756437166   2.541174862
2018-07-20   3.748096173   2.53204466
2018-07-27   3.757417146   2.51411306
2018-08-03   3.752837791   2.498162198
2018-08-10   3.767166224   2.516157236
2018-08-17   3.774359182   2.533004231
2018-08-24   3.807141695   2.482888336
2018-08-31   3.827432743   2.492706273
2018-09-07   3.819108104   2.494551946
2018-09-14   3.806416089   2.499302742
2018-09-21   3.778142713   2.481231531
2018-09-28   3.734823781   2.480723289
2018-10-05   3.726562452   2.476299857
2018-10-12   3.747295956   2.486551972
2018-10-19   3.748605058   2.489240379
2018-10-26   3.789716385   2.537106073
2018-11-02   3.842712856   2.580854793
2018-11-09   3.855036727   2.614676859
2018-11-16   3.951011524   2.681425685
2018-11-23   4.073746606   2.759605448
2018-11-30   4.179859583   2.884428855
2018-12-07   4.334347961   3.009078764
2018-12-14   4.509545853   3.150633514
2018-12-21   4.832573323   3.373170305
2018-12-28   4.941223292   3.462860074
2019-01-04   4.733754374   3.180905956
2019-01-11   4.48670142   2.911212159
2019-01-18   4.475686724   2.838416032
2019-01-25   4.527344409   2.881502704
2019-02-01   4.542935453   2.887671369
2019-02-08   4.492502678   2.862814776
2019-02-15   4.440734662   2.830785831
2019-02-22   4.331918316   2.760269645
2019-03-01   4.236528326   2.685405228
2019-03-08   4.322832003   2.746646671
2019-03-15   4.314548779   2.7348961
2019-03-22   4.397419899   2.786648998
2019-03-29   4.45584151   2.877071041
2019-04-05   4.315945126   2.792921972
2019-04-12   4.257487168   2.741876114
2019-04-18   4.214028918   2.727858907
2019-04-26   4.180719023   2.69829144
2019-05-03   4.127505294   2.683151973
2019-05-10   4.20079036   2.680938891
2019-05-17   4.163569598   2.681971716
2019-05-24   4.219001725   2.68168054
2019-05-31   4.299644758   2.675874467
2019-06-07   4.304943133   2.66533403
2019-06-14   4.313318409   2.653670331
2019-06-21   4.313879279   2.663369166
2019-06-28   4.364151511   2.699296928
2019-07-05   4.355108589   2.691348572
2019-07-12   4.319070747   2.672797309
2019-07-19   4.302483067   2.654044174
2019-07-26   4.303035446   2.647092077
2019-08-02   4.304487151   2.729913326
2019-08-09   4.409349307   2.770048632
2019-08-16   4.503012079   2.801496638
2019-08-23   4.509996898   2.780838119
2019-08-30   4.464821469   2.8023573
2019-09-06   4.419717035   2.741597679
2019-09-13   4.346780885   2.669649229
2019-09-20   4.340224125   2.680274819
2019-09-27   4.325561512   2.674852563
2019-10-04   4.43294389   2.704410323
2019-10-11   4.586544952   2.74495029
2019-10-18   4.618781189   2.721442143
2019-10-25   4.634629528   2.713635755
2019-11-01   4.683168089   2.745953798
2019-11-08   4.677179004   2.751943743
2019-11-15   4.615034062   2.745132176
2019-11-22   4.669846596   2.753986356
2019-11-29   4.658184116   2.742636745
2019-12-06   4.547712738   2.710778218
2019-12-13   4.363787126   2.656414426
2019-12-20   4.242401827   2.64070995
2019-12-27   4.241301411   2.63801446
2020-01-03   4.23049445   2.621672479
2020-01-10   4.140296269   2.579319377
2020-01-17   4.10710221   2.57207486
2020-01-24   4.11279807   2.601422401
2020-01-31   4.191917713   2.627873805
2020-02-07   4.218113466   2.678684624
2020-02-14   4.21048703   2.69448074
2020-02-21   4.189811382   2.710893395
2020-02-28   4.581385576   3.038800808
2020-03-06   4.854775847   3.243091693
2020-03-13   6.393152114   4.750300126
2020-03-20   9.687392601   7.880604267
2020-03-27   9.030652923   6.14613463
2020-04-03   8.152598017   5.048295921
2020-04-09   7.306575883   4.264384758
2020-04-17   6.736097605   3.9406949
2020-04-24   6.913745649   4.121014051
2020-05-01   6.882484943   4.139171101
2020-05-08   6.558610116   4.051761747
2020-05-15   6.511861575   4.03392646
2020-05-22   6.159296181   3.705107904
2020-05-29   5.770013779   3.434488915
2020-06-05   5.419879122   3.211286026
2020-06-12   5.371023165   3.264167139
2020-06-19   5.216089404   3.138677392
2020-06-26   5.509749313   3.381529098
2020-07-03   5.398062822   3.357940019
2020-07-10   5.374377314   3.300913584
2020-07-17   5.200236801   3.191921366
2020-07-24   5.06954331   3.094751379
2020-07-31   5.092788093   3.129945665
2020-08-07   4.960052904   3.049278952
2020-08-14   4.861085065   3.017505498
2020-08-21   4.881261902   3.088271454
2020-08-28   4.831046734   3.07060158
2020-09-04   4.653959376   2.900115285
2020-09-11   4.578625866   2.866778157
2020-09-18   4.556192958   2.881774653
2020-09-25   4.741110976   3.058410064
2020-10-02   4.749737294   3.097629051
2020-10-09   4.632160271   3.005367616
2020-10-16   4.666338215   3.036300748
2020-10-23   4.825568477   3.066052261
2020-10-30   5.004104862   3.217636768
2020-11-06   4.808465024   3.057059694
2020-11-13   4.673767528   2.987008296
2020-11-20   4.669435701   3.020837829
2020-11-27   4.607305087   2.984896174
2020-12-04   4.499880242   2.899996322
2020-12-11   4.461261695   2.86494858
2020-12-18   4.393624919   2.80638031
2020-12-24   4.409350144   2.812745995
2020-12-31   4.389562553   2.795128995
2021-01-08   4.233295434   2.633972204
2021-01-15   4.155066443   2.646288395
2021-01-22   4.160384095   2.632714117
2021-01-29   4.223160977   2.693175607
2021-02-05   4.202910967   2.683015084
2021-02-12   4.130036486   2.704471062
2021-02-19   4.11652962   2.708917555
2021-02-26   4.133478535   2.692784752
2021-03-05   4.140896663   2.753765878
2021-03-12   4.15029676   2.770494246
2021-03-19   4.207701663   2.814910654
2021-03-26   4.233783652   2.840583716
2021-04-02   4.242169768   2.842340603
2021-04-09   4.166703584   2.791289321
2021-04-16   4.159516434   2.809300991
2021-04-23   4.188169454   2.771439806
2021-04-30   4.182422238   2.803546376
2021-05-07   4.186015167   2.813823733
2021-05-14   4.189507423   2.839720377
2021-05-21   4.162665279   2.815530351
2021-05-28   4.151023931   2.789107922
2021-06-04   4.13752527   2.818051684
2021-06-11   4.118869664   2.801147259
2021-06-18   4.147247387   2.857268469
2021-06-25   4.167449714   2.884636112
2021-07-02   4.16808501   2.895677266
2021-07-09   4.162528117   2.910820624
2021-07-16   4.152421941   2.858111782
2021-07-23   4.165367422   2.895482153
2021-07-30   4.214504276   2.920575298
2021-08-06   4.229902602   2.926476014
2021-08-13   4.2282632   3.088344559
2021-08-20   4.252212643   3.142292087
2021-08-27   4.235844894   3.117211558
2021-09-03   4.214371648   3.094625117
2021-09-10   4.184917606   3.071907489
2021-09-17   4.176513462   3.065419697
2021-09-24   4.178544949   3.060116647
2021-10-01   4.169831729   3.048551965
2021-10-08   4.183369366   3.046718806
2021-10-15   4.196000152   3.046699697
2021-10-22   4.189198809   3.054536077
2021-10-29   4.196742642   3.058988632
2021-11-05   4.179190915   3.053364043
2021-11-12   4.165704061   3.00451615
2021-11-19   4.168709723   3.008438757
2021-11-26   4.210727949   3.038421654
2021-12-03   4.285602253   3.083825581
2021-12-10   4.239507783   3.030513594
2021-12-17   4.226753013   3.071087529
2021-12-24   4.219803493   3.060229853
2021-12-31   4.280376332   3.080799937
2022-01-07   4.206427635   3.024832103
2022-01-14   4.175881376   2.992310027
2022-01-21   4.1572083   2.985139631
2022-01-28   4.236650264   3.031279612
2022-02-04   4.244349761   3.027858635
2022-02-11   4.295861193   3.059315004
2022-02-18   4.384179186   3.159829792
2022-02-25   4.461715199   3.229838462
2022-03-04   4.453774687   3.24193604
2022-03-11   4.773297859   3.500537716
2022-03-18   4.721740898   3.453609815
2022-03-25   4.58234696   3.338562161
2022-04-01   4.433104838   3.175361271
2022-04-08   4.198682806   3.010871779
2022-04-15   4.199813108   3.048717945
2022-04-22   4.214554676   3.019629533
2022-04-29   4.32392627   3.102746585
2022-05-06   4.453704988   3.235162249
2022-05-13   4.942924014   3.633495242
2022-05-20   5.094648654   3.724783819
2022-05-27   5.16713692   3.718416761
2022-06-03   4.961909022   3.485450364
2022-06-10   4.990382554   3.505355674
2022-06-17   5.389730781   3.833247969
2022-06-24   5.499729194   3.889322357
2022-07-01   5.870248436   4.166976213
2022-07-08   5.911972359   4.193191706
2022-07-15   5.843413006   4.138839423
2022-07-22   5.413868166   3.72025581
2022-07-29   5.365784892   3.683711044
2022-08-05   5.184972588   3.495140185
2022-08-12   4.898934992   3.297494714
2022-08-19   4.988872418   3.330274625
2022-08-26   5.076946736   3.415900909
2022-09-02   5.230128908   3.477416436
2022-09-09   5.208139161   3.457064767
2022-09-16   5.292604144   3.495188283
2022-09-23   5.580698957   3.595145832
2022-09-30   5.954246277   3.804468941
2022-10-07   5.74787332   3.642476257
2022-10-14   5.919739928   3.663220418
2022-10-21   5.915558306   3.571456859
2022-10-28   5.939316035   3.55280822
2022-11-04   5.777449991   3.468429057
2022-11-11   5.654634902   3.435845348
2022-11-18   5.51877625   3.403426378
2022-11-25   5.533385121   3.410095291
2022-12-02   5.481879753   3.399057813
2022-12-09   5.495472005   3.393809859
2022-12-16   5.504827374   3.366015599
2022-12-23   5.458205222   3.370679281
2022-12-30   5.471317634   3.384627766
2023-01-06   5.325327527   3.240281688
2023-01-13   5.093568126   3.105489729
2023-01-20   5.032282652   3.113980517
2023-01-27   4.915387802   3.08770212
2023-02-03   4.887839816   3.075680371
2023-02-10   4.800355786   3.082517772
2023-02-17   4.878038794   3.264215995
2023-02-24   5.002435521   3.32613083
2023-03-03   4.982201013   3.319083531
2023-03-10   5.020672189   3.41226326
2023-03-17   5.428459228   3.693124592
2023-03-24   5.460158655   3.410769568
2023-03-31   5.161598919   3.29848853
2023-04-07   5.101770388   3.284099922
2023-04-14   5.051503483   3.25970724
2023-04-21   4.97136537   3.272408545
2023-04-28   4.964896419   3.260873045
2023-05-05   5.072782428   3.312353675
2023-05-12   5.121929445   3.37095676
2023-05-19   5.142410913   3.391994458
2023-05-26   5.271471551   3.446215352
2023-06-02   5.250387279   3.442615575
2023-06-09   5.086018392   3.350706983
2023-06-16   4.963604942   3.290294994
2023-06-23   4.976920646   3.303424163
2023-06-30   4.81836912   3.209455622
2023-07-07   4.728011273   3.16413317
2023-07-14   4.589287404   3.107573188
2023-07-21   4.650319366   3.123197386
2023-07-28   4.651308462   3.118443804
2023-08-04   4.724333313   3.139659084
2023-08-11   4.72097852   3.131692966
2023-08-18   4.781499571   3.130329728
2023-08-25   4.771122947   3.120932517
2023-09-01   4.695365585   3.115130119
2023-09-08   4.627747809   3.115566737
2023-09-15   4.499446123   3.074731693
2023-09-22   4.496775665   3.086960703
2023-09-29   4.600998626   3.131280525
2023-10-06   4.733948306   3.22947469
2023-10-13   4.67568455   3.193819494
2023-10-20   4.747057254   3.209050578
2023-10-27   4.849195646   3.24798128
2023-11-03   4.84012544   3.190864429
2023-11-10   4.763692951   3.220545383
2023-11-17   4.727226064   3.180166033
2023-11-24   4.742043873   3.199891096
2023-12-01   4.74406734   3.199542199
2023-12-08   4.676263869   3.175457263
2023-12-15   4.555429987   3.109022731
2023-12-22   4.523722427   3.083005886
2023-12-29   4.463796063   3.044391162
2024-01-05   4.444163938   3.038494465
2024-01-12   4.429988493   3.031755359
2024-01-19   4.46649594   3.022297521
2024-01-26   4.476769596   3.034873273
2024-02-02   4.44661255   3.087743745
2024-02-09   4.428573415   3.09455673
2024-02-16   4.401040415   3.073163408
2024-02-23   4.381699927   3.058544114
2024-03-01   4.363600458   3.011757418
2024-03-08   4.314119759   3.02985455
2024-03-15   4.252894879   3.008196675
2024-03-22   4.267491246   3.027814476
2024-03-29   4.271575033   2.968548512

Note: The data show secondary-market discounted spreads to maturity. Spreads are the constant spread used to equate discounted loan cash flows to the current market price. B-rated spreads begin in July 1997. The black dashed line represents the data transitioning from monthly to weekly in November 2013.

Source: PitchBook Data, Leveraged Commentary & Data.

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Figure 1.11. Treasury market depth increased but remained below historical norms

This is a line chart titled "Treasury market depth increased but remained below historical norms." The x-axis measures time and ranges from January 2019 to March 2024. The data are 5-day moving average, and there are three variables plotted on the chart. The first line is labeled "5-year" and is designated by a black line. This line corresponds to the values on the right y-axis, which ranges from 0 to 350 in millions of dollars. It begins at around 160 million in 2019 and rises steadily, with local peaks in February of 2019 and October 2020. The peaks are between 260 and 285 million. In March of 2020, the series reaches its lowest value at 15 million. By the end of 2020, the value has risen again to about 260 million but declines to 40 million in March 2022, with much volatility in that decline. Since the beginning of 2023, there has been a slight uptick in the series, reaching about 80 million in December and climbing to 90 million by March 2024. The second line is labeled "10-year" and is designated by a red line. This line corresponds to the values on the right y-axis, which ranges from 0 to 350 in millions of dollars. It begins at just over 100 million dollars in 2019, climbs to 240 million in April 2019, then declines to around 75 million by August of 2019. It then upticks to 140 million in early 2020. There is a sharp decrease down to around 12 million in March of 2020. Following this sharp decline is an overall increase until June 2021 at a value of around 175 million. From this point there is a decreasing trend in the series with fluctuations between about 60 and 80 million throughout 2022 and 2023. In 2024, the series increases slightly to end at about 90 million by the end of March. The third series is labeled "30-year" and is designated by a blue line. The line corresponds to values on the left y-axis, which ranges from 0 to 35 in millions of dollars. The line starts around 15 million in January 2019 before a quick increase to around 28 million in the middle of 2019. There is a sharp decline to about 7 million in October of 2019 before a rise back to about 15 million and then an even sharper decline to under 5 million in March 2020. From there, the series rises to over 20 million in June 2021, before gradually declining to around 7 million in March 2022. The series hovers between 7 and 11 million until the end of 2022, when it declines again to about 5 million. It rises again to about 15 million by end the of 2023, drops to 10 million in the beginning of 2024, then ends at around 16 million in March 2024.

Note: Market depth is defined as the average top 3 bid and ask quote sizes for on-the-run Treasury securities.

Source: Inter Dealer Broker Community.

Return to text
Figure 1.12. On-the-run market depth improved in recent months but remained below historical norms

This is a line chart titled "On-the-run market depth improved in recent months but remained below historical norms." The x-axis measures time and ranges from September 2019 to March 2024. The data are 5-day moving average, and there are two variables plotted on the chart. The first line is labeled "2-year OTR market depth" and is designated by a black line. This line corresponds to the values on the right y-axis, which ranges from 0 to 300 in millions of dollars. It begins at around 50 million in October 2019 and rises steadily before there is a sharp decrease in March 2020 to a low of about 9 million. Then, there is a quick rebound back to around 285 million in February of 2021, a sharp drop down to about 110 million in March 2021, and an increase back to about 275 million in July 2021.The series has two quick decreases to around 50 million in January of 2022. Since then, there is a gradual decrease to around 10 million in early 2023 The series remains between 5 and 12 million for most of 2023, ending with a slight increase toward the end of the series to a final value of almost 29 million in March 2024. The second line is labeled "10-year OTR market depth" and is designated by a blue line. This line corresponds to the values on the left y-axis, which ranges from 0 to 60 in millions of dollars. It begins at about 35 million dollars in 2019, rises to around 50 million by February of 2020 before steeply dropping to 5 million in March 2020. The series increases back up to 55 million in late 2020. The series wavers between 30 and 50 million in 2021 and then declines throughout 2022 from about 30 million dollars to about 10 million dollars. March 2023 shows a further decline to about 8 million dollars before the series takes on an increasing trend reaches about 31 million in March 2024.

Note: The data show the time-weighted average market depth at the best quoted prices to buy and sell, for 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes. OTR is on-the-run.

Source: BrokerTec; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Return to text
Figure 1.13. A measure of liquidity in equity markets remained below average

Market depth (number of contracts)

Date Market Depth (number of contracts)
2019-09-03 90.27037037
2019-09-04 101.6765432
2019-09-05 109.5950617
2019-09-06 112.1271605
2019-09-09 123.9246914
2019-09-10 132.4024691
2019-09-11 141.145679
2019-09-12 134.882716
2019-09-13 129.5617284
2019-09-16 115.0283951
2019-09-17 112.6395062
2019-09-18 102.1580247
2019-09-19 110.8839506
2019-09-20 117.5469136
2019-09-23 124.9444444
2019-09-24 120.3098765
2019-09-25 115.1790123
2019-09-26 107.7901235
2019-09-27 100.8987654
2019-09-30 101.4419753
2019-10-01 102.645679
2019-10-02 100.8592593
2019-10-03 94.48888889
2019-10-04 99.45925926
2019-10-07 91.3654321
2019-10-08 87.61234568
2019-10-09 86.09876543
2019-10-10 86.31728395
2019-10-11 76.01728395
2019-10-14 76.39506173
2019-10-15 88.46419753
2019-10-16 96.76049383
2019-10-17 105.0753086
2019-10-18 115.9728395
2019-10-21 129.0740741
2019-10-22 129.4271605
2019-10-23 133.4802469
2019-10-24 135.8925926
2019-10-25 145.4530864
2019-10-28 148.3654321
2019-10-29 153.345679
2019-10-30 149.0925926
2019-10-31 150.1864198
2019-11-01 150.5432099
2019-11-04 155.6962963
2019-11-05 157.0518519
2019-11-06 159.5530864
2019-11-07 165.6864198
2019-11-08 165.9481481
2019-11-11 166.3864198
2019-11-12 166.3518519
2019-11-13 172.2925926
2019-11-14 175.8469136
2019-11-15 191.1296296
2019-11-18 192.0395062
2019-11-19 192.8074074
2019-11-20 187.6666667
2019-11-21 182.4604938
2019-11-22 165.2283951
2019-11-25 174.9802469
2019-11-26 181.5641975
2019-11-27 195.0925926
2019-11-29 201.571927
2019-12-02 199.4608159
2019-12-03 178.4163714
2019-12-04 174.5583468
2019-12-05 164.9645196
2019-12-06 177.8802469
2019-12-09 193.5925926
2019-12-10 202.9012346
2019-12-11 202.9864198
2019-12-12 194.0938272
2019-12-13 161.1222222
2019-12-16 161.4246914
2019-12-17 166.1407407
2019-12-18 169.7296296
2019-12-19 195.3938272
2019-12-20 222.8160494
2019-12-23 219.7691358
2019-12-24 208.2800322
2019-12-26 207.8133655
2019-12-27 193.4170692
2019-12-30 181.3343532
2019-12-31 171.0504026
2020-01-02 178.8950617
2020-01-03 165.2345679
2020-01-06 163.4271605
2020-01-07 160.9987654
2020-01-08 156.9160494
2020-01-09 151.5432099
2020-01-10 159.7555556
2020-01-13 160.4160494
2020-01-14 162.7716049
2020-01-15 166.5333333
2020-01-16 177.1444444
2020-01-17 183.6617284
2020-01-21 188.0024691
2020-01-22 196.2604938
2020-01-23 199.6679012
2020-01-24 183.4074074
2020-01-27 165.3160494
2020-01-28 158.837037
2020-01-29 147.2740741
2020-01-30 131.8975309
2020-01-31 128.9111111
2020-02-03 130.4197531
2020-02-04 130.4975309
2020-02-05 126.5148148
2020-02-06 134.9333333
2020-02-07 134.6
2020-02-10 141.9246914
2020-02-11 142.5481481
2020-02-12 152.1567901
2020-02-13 152.7679012
2020-02-14 160.2049383
2020-02-18 162.3444444
2020-02-19 170.1864198
2020-02-20 161.2753086
2020-02-21 153
2020-02-24 135.2580247
2020-02-25 108.7382716
2020-02-26 75.7037037
2020-02-27 54.20617284
2020-02-28 35.28148148
2020-03-02 24.81111111
2020-03-03 19.4037037
2020-03-04 18.3691358
2020-03-05 18.40740741
2020-03-06 18.72592593
2020-03-09 22.00384615
2020-03-10 21.68409307
2020-03-11 18.92730294
2020-03-12 16.25731244
2020-03-13 14.76595442
2020-03-16 9.218518519
2020-03-17 8.313580247
2020-03-18 7.483075481
2020-03-19 7.265411663
2020-03-20 7.114794379
2020-03-23 7.49542116
2020-03-24 8.605297703
2020-03-25 11.31358025
2020-03-26 11.56419753
2020-03-27 12.32469136
2020-03-30 12.99382716
2020-03-31 13.9037037
2020-04-01 13.52716049
2020-04-02 14.64691358
2020-04-03 16.58641975
2020-04-06 20.1345679
2020-04-07 20.22345679
2020-04-08 20.82962963
2020-04-09 22.36419753
2020-04-13 22.71975309
2020-04-14 23.2382716
2020-04-15 26.09135802
2020-04-16 27.19753086
2020-04-17 30.25555556
2020-04-20 32.41851852
2020-04-21 31.2
2020-04-22 32.10617284
2020-04-23 32.80864198
2020-04-24 33.00123457
2020-04-27 37.20617284
2020-04-28 39.86419753
2020-04-29 41.49876543
2020-04-30 42.43333333
2020-05-01 43.78518519
2020-05-04 42.18888889
2020-05-05 46.53580247
2020-05-06 46.49135802
2020-05-07 50.27283951
2020-05-08 55.87777778
2020-05-11 60.78888889
2020-05-12 60.9
2020-05-13 60.74074074
2020-05-14 57.74567901
2020-05-15 50.36049383
2020-05-18 50.50246914
2020-05-19 47.77160494
2020-05-20 52.17530864
2020-05-21 55.4345679
2020-05-22 60.95802469
2020-05-26 62.49012346
2020-05-27 63.76419753
2020-05-28 63.0617284
2020-05-29 59.52839506
2020-06-01 61.59012346
2020-06-02 62.48518519
2020-06-03 71.10493827
2020-06-04 74.23703704
2020-06-05 82.03950617
2020-06-08 84.05679012
2020-06-09 82.11975309
2020-06-10 71.65308642
2020-06-11 63.08518519
2020-06-12 51.02222222
2020-06-15 39.18641975
2020-06-16 28.31234568
2020-06-17 26.95061728
2020-06-18 28.0382716
2020-06-19 32.67654321
2020-06-22 39.03333333
2020-06-23 46.53950617
2020-06-24 46.53703704
2020-06-25 46.31975309
2020-06-26 44.93209877
2020-06-29 42.5962963
2020-06-30 41.8617284
2020-07-01 43.96419753
2020-07-02 47.56296296
2020-07-06 53.05802469
2020-07-07 57.79259259
2020-07-08 59.42098765
2020-07-09 59.43580247
2020-07-10 57.9345679
2020-07-13 59.05925926
2020-07-14 51.35308642
2020-07-15 47.65925926
2020-07-16 48.4382716
2020-07-17 54.64691358
2020-07-20 59.9037037
2020-07-21 67.26419753
2020-07-22 74.46666667
2020-07-23 74.17037037
2020-07-24 70.9654321
2020-07-27 73.34320988
2020-07-28 75.99012346
2020-07-29 81.31728395
2020-07-30 84.27407407
2020-07-31 87.77407407
2020-08-03 83.08641975
2020-08-04 82.98765432
2020-08-05 82.12222222
2020-08-06 89.70123457
2020-08-07 89.3037037
2020-08-10 89.56049383
2020-08-11 91.67654321
2020-08-12 89.47654321
2020-08-13 86.58765432
2020-08-14 85.69382716
2020-08-17 90.74320988
2020-08-18 93.61604938
2020-08-19 99.82098765
2020-08-20 102.037037
2020-08-21 104.1987654
2020-08-24 102.4641975
2020-08-25 98.71481481
2020-08-26 102.7308642
2020-08-27 96.01234568
2020-08-28 98.38765432
2020-08-31 96.54938272
2020-09-01 98.44074074
2020-09-02 86.74814815
2020-09-03 79.72716049
2020-09-04 65.24567901
2020-09-08 51.50493827
2020-09-09 41.96049383
2020-09-10 31.49259259
2020-09-11 28.84444444
2020-09-14 34.85185185
2020-09-15 46.95679012
2020-09-16 49.55185185
2020-09-17 54.25925926
2020-09-18 63.69012346
2020-09-21 65.45185185
2020-09-22 59.07777778
2020-09-23 58.75679012
2020-09-24 55.47777778
2020-09-25 51.33209877
2020-09-28 53.6037037
2020-09-29 57.47654321
2020-09-30 57.21851852
2020-10-01 57.79382716
2020-10-02 56.0617284
2020-10-05 55.84074074
2020-10-06 52.05555556
2020-10-07 53.98765432
2020-10-08 58.34444444
2020-10-09 64.36790123
2020-10-12 63.92345679
2020-10-13 64.58395062
2020-10-14 62.75802469
2020-10-15 60.0691358
2020-10-16 59.2037037
2020-10-19 55.90617284
2020-10-20 56.46296296
2020-10-21 55.19506173
2020-10-22 56.78395062
2020-10-23 56.82469136
2020-10-26 55.98271605
2020-10-27 55.72592593
2020-10-28 56.16296296
2020-10-29 53.40987654
2020-10-30 45.9037037
2020-11-02 42.62098765
2020-11-03 41.71234568
2020-11-04 36.38271605
2020-11-05 33.98024691
2020-11-06 36.74197531
2020-11-09 35.10493827
2020-11-10 32.67777778
2020-11-11 39.13580247
2020-11-12 41.63580247
2020-11-13 48.37530864
2020-11-16 56.82345679
2020-11-17 64.27777778
2020-11-18 68.69135802
2020-11-19 72.38888889
2020-11-20 69.30864198
2020-11-23 65.74320988
2020-11-24 66.07407407
2020-11-25 63.27777778
2020-11-27 65.98639291
2020-11-30 68.35429415
2020-12-01 70.65305958
2020-12-02 69.79256575
2020-12-03 71.8407139
2020-12-04 76.11111111
2020-12-07 80.01234568
2020-12-08 87.0654321
2020-12-09 86.95185185
2020-12-10 84.75185185
2020-12-11 77.13950617
2020-12-14 74.11604938
2020-12-15 74.29382716
2020-12-16 77.97530864
2020-12-17 87.9691358
2020-12-18 90.75802469
2020-12-21 84.84444444
2020-12-22 76.27037037
2020-12-23 76.02222222
2020-12-24 66.36596887
2020-12-28 75.15115405
2020-12-29 80.32769726
2020-12-30 86.10424047
2020-12-31 86.05362319
2021-01-04 82.4962963
2021-01-05 71.04938272
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2021-01-07 62.79135802
2021-01-08 55.98518519
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2021-01-14 61.64814815
2021-01-15 62.86049383
2021-01-19 69.09506173
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2021-01-21 85.20246914
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2021-01-25 82.78395062
2021-01-26 79.5345679
2021-01-27 66.88024691
2021-01-28 54.19012346
2021-01-29 41.30987654
2021-02-01 40.83703704
2021-02-02 43.68271605
2021-02-03 49.55925926
2021-02-04 62.85802469
2021-02-05 76.23950617
2021-02-08 87.45925926
2021-02-09 93.11234568
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2021-02-11 86.8617284
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2021-02-16 80.03703704
2021-02-17 70.47901235
2021-02-18 71.87037037
2021-02-19 71.70123457
2021-02-22 66.88765432
2021-02-23 61.86296296
2021-02-24 61.79876543
2021-02-25 55.88148148
2021-02-26 47.47037037
2021-03-01 48.29876543
2021-03-02 49.20617284
2021-03-03 43.62345679
2021-03-04 41.69135802
2021-03-05 40.65555556
2021-03-08 32.63950617
2021-03-09 34.83950617
2021-03-10 35.59382716
2021-03-11 41.84814815
2021-03-12 44.24197531
2021-03-15 53.18641975
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2021-03-17 62.09876543
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2021-03-22 70.32098765
2021-03-23 69.86666667
2021-03-24 73.79876543
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2021-03-29 75.25925926
2021-03-30 73.13580247
2021-03-31 80.34444444
2021-04-01 89.00246914
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2021-04-06 102.2259259
2021-04-07 108.0839506
2021-04-08 107.5111111
2021-04-09 111.1024691
2021-04-12 111.4802469
2021-04-13 109
2021-04-14 109.3691358
2021-04-15 112.5901235
2021-04-16 111.7061728
2021-04-19 108.5580247
2021-04-20 103.3209877
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2021-04-22 99.05308642
2021-04-23 99.73209877
2021-04-26 102.2111111
2021-04-27 102.3123457
2021-04-28 100.2444444
2021-04-29 98.3
2021-04-30 91.65308642
2021-05-03 87.71111111
2021-05-04 85.33580247
2021-05-05 81.55185185
2021-05-06 81.96666667
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2021-05-11 84.52222222
2021-05-12 76.95802469
2021-05-13 74.08395062
2021-05-14 68.38641975
2021-05-17 62.22716049
2021-05-18 67.58395062
2021-05-19 68.4
2021-05-20 72.34197531
2021-05-21 73.87407407
2021-05-24 83.22716049
2021-05-25 85.72839506
2021-05-26 98.95555556
2021-05-27 100.5802469
2021-05-28 106.9308642
2021-06-01 102.3814815
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2021-06-03 97.5962963
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2021-07-01 128.0888889
2021-07-02 129.291358
2021-07-06 132.491358
2021-07-07 126.9358025
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2021-10-19 84.77654321
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2021-10-29 80.30246914
2021-11-01 76.00493827
2021-11-02 81.2
2021-11-03 83.68888889
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2021-11-09 78.80493827
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2022-01-03 52.6654321
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2022-12-13 38.27407407
2022-12-14 36.64320988
2022-12-15 33.01728395
2022-12-16 34.85679012
2022-12-19 33.8037037
2022-12-20 38.18518519
2022-12-21 44.0308642
2022-12-22 46.28271605
2022-12-23 45.07654321
2022-12-27 42.39135802
2022-12-28 41.3691358
2022-12-29 40.86790123
2022-12-30 38.77777778
2023-01-03 37.9654321
2023-01-04 38.88518519
2023-01-05 38.98024691
2023-01-06 38.5691358
2023-01-09 42.74691358
2023-01-10 45.30246914
2023-01-11 50.92839506
2023-01-12 50.79506173
2023-01-13 51.74814815
2023-01-17 50.52469136
2023-01-18 53.35802469
2023-01-19 50.99012346
2023-01-20 55.79382716
2023-01-23 56.20493827
2023-01-24 55.57283951
2023-01-25 53.14320988
2023-01-26 52.05061728
2023-01-27 52.51111111
2023-01-30 51.9691358
2023-01-31 55.75802469
2023-02-01 55.05308642
2023-02-02 54.75925926
2023-02-03 49.05061728
2023-02-06 46.98148148
2023-02-07 41.43580247
2023-02-08 43.08518519
2023-02-09 44.2691358
2023-02-10 46.69753086
2023-02-13 50.29506173
2023-02-14 49.58271605
2023-02-15 49.95185185
2023-02-16 49.90740741
2023-02-17 53.35925926
2023-02-21 54.74567901
2023-02-22 58.32345679
2023-02-23 61.22345679
2023-02-24 63.39506173
2023-02-27 63.80864198
2023-02-28 64.19135802
2023-03-01 67.16790123
2023-03-02 69.02839506
2023-03-03 72.08271605
2023-03-06 73.00493827
2023-03-07 70.89259259
2023-03-08 69.30493827
2023-03-09 67.79259259
2023-03-10 56.98148148
2023-03-13 45.10123457
2023-03-14 40.45432099
2023-03-15 32.05185185
2023-03-16 25.61481481
2023-03-17 27.34320988
2023-03-20 31.14814815
2023-03-21 34.5962963
2023-03-22 39.14197531
2023-03-23 41.35061728
2023-03-24 42.25185185
2023-03-27 43.66296296
2023-03-28 44.74814815
2023-03-29 49.52962963
2023-03-30 53.31975309
2023-03-31 64.37530864
2023-04-03 72.07283951
2023-04-04 73.39382716
2023-04-05 76.01851852
2023-04-06 78.7617284
2023-04-10 74.62345679
2023-04-11 76.41604938
2023-04-12 74.25925926
2023-04-13 74.8617284
2023-04-14 73.04938272
2023-04-17 71.4962963
2023-04-18 67.99382716
2023-04-19 72.54074074
2023-04-20 71.5
2023-04-21 72.71851852
2023-04-24 76.96790123
2023-04-25 78.27901235
2023-04-26 77.3308642
2023-04-27 81.41975309
2023-04-28 78.43580247
2023-05-01 75.56296296
2023-05-02 73.54938272
2023-05-03 69.0962963
2023-05-04 59.2691358
2023-05-05 61.60864198
2023-05-08 60.74938272
2023-05-09 61.42469136
2023-05-10 61.23950617
2023-05-11 62.59506173
2023-05-12 61.03950617
2023-05-15 62.30246914
2023-05-16 61.94320988
2023-05-17 66.61481481
2023-05-18 67.17530864
2023-05-19 65.62592593
2023-05-22 62.7691358
2023-05-23 62.86419753
2023-05-24 59.92716049
2023-05-25 58.4382716
2023-05-26 60.14938272
2023-05-30 60.10987654
2023-05-31 60.34074074
2023-06-01 62.73580247
2023-06-02 67.34320988
2023-06-05 67.20246914
2023-06-06 69.09135802
2023-06-07 68.45555556
2023-06-08 70.91481481
2023-06-09 68.28024691
2023-06-12 68.65555556
2023-06-13 67.32592593
2023-06-14 65.50987654
2023-06-15 59.94814815
2023-06-16 58.04320988
2023-06-20 56.17777778
2023-06-21 53.85185185
2023-06-22 53.0382716
2023-06-23 53.82222222
2023-06-26 56.26666667
2023-06-27 61.42592593
2023-06-28 64.8
2023-06-29 69.70740741
2023-06-30 77.17037037
2023-07-03 81.41500268
2023-07-05 80.9298175
2023-07-06 87.45080515
2023-07-07 91.34957059
2023-07-10 86.72734836
2023-07-11 86.65308642
2023-07-12 86.93333333
2023-07-13 85.08518519
2023-07-14 80.32839506
2023-07-17 82.32345679
2023-07-18 83.91975309
2023-07-19 82.45061728
2023-07-20 78.62469136
2023-07-21 78.55061728
2023-07-24 76.80987654
2023-07-25 79.16666667
2023-07-26 77.85061728
2023-07-27 78.15061728
2023-07-28 78.10740741
2023-07-31 77.61975309
2023-08-01 72.59382716
2023-08-02 75.42592593
2023-08-03 76.27283951
2023-08-04 76.63209877
2023-08-07 78.7654321
2023-08-08 77.83580247
2023-08-09 77.22222222
2023-08-10 70.6
2023-08-11 66.4
2023-08-14 61.66790123
2023-08-15 57.38641975
2023-08-16 51.95925926
2023-08-17 55.12962963
2023-08-18 53.8691358
2023-08-21 53.8654321
2023-08-22 53.9345679
2023-08-23 55.60617284
2023-08-24 54.41111111
2023-08-25 52.25432099
2023-08-28 49.59382716
2023-08-29 51.15185185
2023-08-30 51.22469136
2023-08-31 53.80740741
2023-09-01 58.10740741
2023-09-05 64.29259259
2023-09-06 67.70246914
2023-09-07 70.81234568
2023-09-08 70.78641975
2023-09-11 72.04691358
2023-09-12 69.29506173
2023-09-13 68.68518519
2023-09-14 70.02962963
2023-09-15 70.28518519
2023-09-18 72.96049383
2023-09-19 76.21728395
2023-09-20 73.97037037
2023-09-21 70.92716049
2023-09-22 70.67654321
2023-09-25 67.20987654
2023-09-26 64.85061728
2023-09-27 63.45679012
2023-09-28 61.25555556
2023-09-29 57.1382716
2023-10-02 53.05185185
2023-10-03 47.85555556
2023-10-04 45.42222222
2023-10-05 43.00123457
2023-10-06 43.14074074
2023-10-09 45.49382716
2023-10-10 48.67407407
2023-10-11 51.00493827
2023-10-12 52.45308642
2023-10-13 53.24444444
2023-10-16 55.17160494
2023-10-17 53.89876543
2023-10-18 52.25061728
2023-10-19 49.92592593
2023-10-20 49.27283951
2023-10-23 46.45925926
2023-10-24 45.05802469
2023-10-25 44.5
2023-10-26 45.21604938
2023-10-27 44.22222222
2023-10-30 46.42592593
2023-10-31 47.72469136
2023-11-01 47.62592593
2023-11-02 52.88641975
2023-11-03 57.64074074
2023-11-06 60.89259259
2023-11-07 65.80740741
2023-11-08 70.31975309
2023-11-09 69.60123457
2023-11-10 71.19506173
2023-11-13 72.04197531
2023-11-14 72.41481481
2023-11-15 73.14197531
2023-11-16 75.53703704
2023-11-17 77.06296296
2023-11-20 79.34074074
2023-11-21 79.57901235
2023-11-22 80.98148148
2023-11-24 80.32962963
2023-11-27 80.6308642
2023-11-28 80.85185185
2023-11-29 81.98024691
2023-11-30 83.76049383
2023-12-01 83.49506173
2023-12-04 87.10740741
2023-12-05 86.26296296
2023-12-06 89.23580247
2023-12-07 92.33209877
2023-12-08 92.72592593
2023-12-11 91.31851852
2023-12-12 93.58888889
2023-12-13 94.47530864
2023-12-14 89.65925926
2023-12-15 86.61604938
2023-12-18 88.9382716
2023-12-19 91.88518519
2023-12-20 89.71358025
2023-12-21 84.86666667
2023-12-22 86.50987654
2023-12-26 80.29876543
2023-12-27 73.53580247
2023-12-28 70.31728395
2023-12-29 71.43580247
2024-01-02 71.15555556
2024-01-03 67.49259259
2024-01-04 63.25061728
2024-01-05 58.71234568
2024-01-08 62.15802469
2024-01-09 63.72592593
2024-01-10 67.90246914
2024-01-11 66.25679012
2024-01-12 66.7345679
2024-01-16 62.34938272
2024-01-17 60.03209877
2024-01-18 56.74444444
2024-01-19 60.50740741
2024-01-22 60.04938272
2024-01-23 62.63580247
2024-01-24 62.25802469
2024-01-25 60.98641975
2024-01-26 59.56419753
2024-01-29 63.16419753
2024-01-30 62.67160494
2024-01-31 61.87283951
2024-02-01 61.56049383
2024-02-02 60.61728395
2024-02-05 58.47407407
2024-02-06 56.76790123
2024-02-07 58.09382716
2024-02-08 62.90123457
2024-02-09 67.95185185
2024-02-12 71.41358025
2024-02-13 72.86666667
2024-02-14 72.15925926
2024-02-15 70.07901235
2024-02-16 66.04691358
2024-02-20 60.21111111
2024-02-21 58.2691358
2024-02-22 57.94814815
2024-02-23 55.64938272
2024-02-26 55.89382716
2024-02-27 58.0691358
2024-02-28 60.48765432
2024-02-29 62.57654321
2024-03-01 69.81481481
2024-03-04 77.59753086
2024-03-05 78.11728395
2024-03-06 76.54938272
2024-03-07 78.62098765
2024-03-08 68.48271605
2024-03-11 55.20864198
2024-03-12 51.90740741
2024-03-13 53.47160494
2024-03-14 47.74691358
2024-03-15 49.62716049
2024-03-18 53.57283951
2024-03-19 55.10246914
2024-03-20 52.77160494
2024-03-21 54.98024691
2024-03-22 58.12345679
2024-03-25 60.73580247
2024-03-26 66.2308642
2024-03-27 70.11481481
2024-03-28 74.39382716

Note: The data show the depth at the best quoted prices to buy and sell, defined as the ask size plus the bid size divided by 2, for E-mini Standard & Poor's 500 futures.

Source: Refinitiv, DataScope Tick History; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Return to text
Figure 1.14. Commercial real estate prices, adjusted for inflation, continued to decline

Jan. 2001 = 100

Date Jan. 2001 = 100
2000-12-01 99.90788133
2001-01-01 100
2001-02-01 100.2192712
2001-03-01 100.4764044
2001-04-01 100.3952541
2001-05-01 100.0814704
2001-06-01 99.87430125
2001-07-01 99.99135966
2001-08-01 99.75524143
2001-09-01 99.05491309
2001-10-01 99.13889931
2001-11-01 99.04670349
2001-12-01 99.17154908
2002-01-01 98.69589148
2002-02-01 98.1207089
2002-03-01 97.47977099
2002-04-01 96.96367503
2002-05-01 97.14842568
2002-06-01 97.48864045
2002-07-01 97.98841224
2002-08-01 98.44870314
2002-09-01 99.17174387
2002-10-01 99.91686717
2002-11-01 100.8056523
2002-12-01 101.8922739
2003-01-01 102.2710745
2003-02-01 102.233401
2003-03-01 102.2432757
2003-04-01 102.9887833
2003-05-01 103.6279631
2003-06-01 103.9768497
2003-07-01 104.3492254
2003-08-01 104.4884913
2003-09-01 104.7011577
2003-10-01 105.3219055
2003-11-01 106.0095944
2003-12-01 106.4505435
2004-01-01 106.3026533
2004-02-01 106.2747086
2004-03-01 106.3848957
2004-04-01 107.0516632
2004-05-01 107.5594544
2004-06-01 108.4291346
2004-07-01 109.8820255
2004-08-01 111.1611244
2004-09-01 112.271208
2004-10-01 112.9477338
2004-11-01 114.0968252
2004-12-01 115.7067299
2005-01-01 116.6924392
2005-02-01 117.233275
2005-03-01 117.5132921
2005-04-01 117.9622958
2005-05-01 119.439766
2005-06-01 120.8593749
2005-07-01 121.8792266
2005-08-01 122.9210453
2005-09-01 123.0947111
2005-10-01 124.3700478
2005-11-01 126.6264339
2005-12-01 128.149762
2006-01-01 128.0394513
2006-02-01 128.5991155
2006-03-01 128.6012816
2006-04-01 128.0360286
2006-05-01 127.7724757
2006-06-01 127.8256976
2006-07-01 127.7165515
2006-08-01 127.7004076
2006-09-01 128.5790787
2006-10-01 129.6143857
2006-11-01 130.3013355
2006-12-01 130.7436314
2007-01-01 131.1913372
2007-02-01 131.52309
2007-03-01 131.5258552
2007-04-01 131.903688
2007-05-01 132.2730017
2007-06-01 133.0291382
2007-07-01 133.6777962
2007-08-01 133.9216915
2007-09-01 132.8253493
2007-10-01 131.3774707
2007-11-01 129.2764849
2007-12-01 128.1265358
2008-01-01 126.409009
2008-02-01 125.1220234
2008-03-01 123.2019261
2008-04-01 121.5879257
2008-05-01 119.546513
2008-06-01 117.1528136
2008-07-01 115.2007837
2008-08-01 114.2256272
2008-09-01 112.7970618
2008-10-01 112.1111939
2008-11-01 112.1809699
2008-12-01 111.0492694
2009-01-01 108.1816201
2009-02-01 105.2033557
2009-03-01 102.4709523
2009-04-01 99.71137274
2009-05-01 96.95573853
2009-06-01 93.78166174
2009-07-01 91.76863702
2009-08-01 89.67531174
2009-09-01 88.03341599
2009-10-01 86.65569516
2009-11-01 85.54826372
2009-12-01 84.85141826
2010-01-01 83.90196601
2010-02-01 83.3911701
2010-03-01 82.71737914
2010-04-01 82.36299761
2010-05-01 82.22165926
2010-06-01 82.36398851
2010-07-01 82.55902823
2010-08-01 82.78926703
2010-09-01 83.17975845
2010-10-01 83.54307347
2010-11-01 83.91773841
2010-12-01 84.07034092
2011-01-01 83.8391212
2011-02-01 83.49653791
2011-03-01 82.73461581
2011-04-01 82.30608878
2011-05-01 82.15283027
2011-06-01 82.60286717
2011-07-01 83.04421554
2011-08-01 83.42426673
2011-09-01 83.94286072
2011-10-01 84.6858317
2011-11-01 85.19352164
2011-12-01 85.72654803
2012-01-01 85.61225255
2012-02-01 85.47926572
2012-03-01 85.07167107
2012-04-01 85.04985335
2012-05-01 85.40270005
2012-06-01 85.82756728
2012-07-01 86.31659555
2012-08-01 86.26938582
2012-09-01 86.42536582
2012-10-01 87.10971264
2012-11-01 88.21568083
2012-12-01 89.1105982
2013-01-01 89.43896617
2013-02-01 89.25981685
2013-03-01 89.57098403
2013-04-01 90.26274761
2013-05-01 90.79867419
2013-06-01 91.37287861
2013-07-01 92.17854249
2013-08-01 92.93944566
2013-09-01 93.70706208
2013-10-01 94.81692024
2013-11-01 95.83414339
2013-12-01 96.62601295
2014-01-01 97.03444652
2014-02-01 97.43508923
2014-03-01 97.56457018
2014-04-01 98.01801949
2014-05-01 98.48817157
2014-06-01 99.13513912
2014-07-01 99.97862785
2014-08-01 100.9227726
2014-09-01 101.6311647
2014-10-01 102.7356942
2014-11-01 104.2307465
2014-12-01 105.8332877
2015-01-01 107.3395552
2015-02-01 107.7897175
2015-03-01 107.9421267
2015-04-01 108.4249517
2015-05-01 108.5085737
2015-06-01 108.7176028
2015-07-01 109.2687227
2015-08-01 109.996427
2015-09-01 110.7516569
2015-10-01 111.3932502
2015-11-01 112.1792266
2015-12-01 113.0483767
2016-01-01 113.2586358
2016-02-01 113.5521024
2016-03-01 113.5268248
2016-04-01 113.5832684
2016-05-01 113.8415211
2016-06-01 114.2464052
2016-07-01 115.2080919
2016-08-01 115.8205123
2016-09-01 116.1726142
2016-10-01 116.5433655
2016-11-01 117.1323775
2016-12-01 117.3997782
2017-01-01 116.9953312
2017-02-01 116.9270176
2017-03-01 117.2416719
2017-04-01 117.4788786
2017-05-01 118.1041972
2017-06-01 118.7816925
2017-07-01 119.6389983
2017-08-01 120.0346782
2017-09-01 120.1210013
2017-10-01 120.8121255
2017-11-01 121.2882067
2017-12-01 121.7610046
2018-01-01 121.5306845
2018-02-01 121.5303809
2018-03-01 121.9362962
2018-04-01 122.2178869
2018-05-01 122.5045473
2018-06-01 123.1181801
2018-07-01 123.9196772
2018-08-01 124.6071648
2018-09-01 125.0539144
2018-10-01 125.2073297
2018-11-01 125.8452805
2018-12-01 126.4052753
2019-01-01 126.4130105
2019-02-01 126.2911294
2019-03-01 126.2044445
2019-04-01 126.3341938
2019-05-01 126.9857121
2019-06-01 127.9451972
2019-07-01 128.6878962
2019-08-01 129.5264135
2019-09-01 130.0616601
2019-10-01 130.207241
2019-11-01 130.5908816
2019-12-01 131.0096957
2020-01-01 130.8340396
2020-02-01 130.7733132
2020-03-01 131.1500217
2020-04-01 131.8317104
2020-05-01 131.4751282
2020-06-01 130.5424068
2020-07-01 130.1378381
2020-08-01 130.6126776
2020-09-01 131.8584571
2020-10-01 133.4406075
2020-11-01 135.1013607
2020-12-01 136.35646
2021-01-01 137.0340036
2021-02-01 137.4058823
2021-03-01 137.615617
2021-04-01 137.8128089
2021-05-01 138.314667
2021-06-01 138.9964557
2021-07-01 140.7157271
2021-08-01 143.1578887
2021-09-01 145.5907414
2021-10-01 147.1126399
2021-11-01 148.8863346
2021-12-01 150.4424255
2022-01-01 150.3398755
2022-02-01 149.41771
2022-03-01 147.6920177
2022-04-01 147.5623662
2022-05-01 147.083209
2022-06-01 146.1700245
2022-07-01 146.6263521
2022-08-01 146.277511
2022-09-01 144.8185275
2022-10-01 142.5591334
2022-11-01 140.5218923
2022-12-01 138.4559787
2023-01-01 134.8977571
2023-02-01 132.099581
2023-03-01 130.1640688
2023-04-01 128.4637786
2023-05-01 127.4365758
2023-06-01 126.6210883
2023-07-01 126.230755
2023-08-01 125.6405676
2023-09-01 125.2827025
2023-10-01 125.2121657
2023-11-01 125.266913
2023-12-01 125.1009944
2024-01-01 124.0725072
2024-02-01 122.9684575

Note: The data are deflated using the consumer price index.

Source: Real Capital Analytics; consumer price index, Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics.

Return to text
Figure 1.15. Income of commercial properties relative to prices continued to grow but remained well below historical norms

Percent

Date Percent
2001-01-01 8.57989741
2001-02-01 8.574046489
2001-03-01 8.561989697
2001-04-01 8.568342304
2001-05-01 8.591625327
2001-06-01 8.594615923
2001-07-01 8.6101211
2001-08-01 8.641056719
2001-09-01 8.655288755
2001-10-01 8.679044561
2001-11-01 8.725277391
2001-12-01 8.792315534
2002-01-01 8.819822962
2002-02-01 8.860719401
2002-03-01 8.88724549
2002-04-01 8.910460908
2002-05-01 8.905000918
2002-06-01 8.896379856
2002-07-01 8.852049348
2002-08-01 8.79501265
2002-09-01 8.73416556
2002-10-01 8.674044525
2002-11-01 8.61899609
2002-12-01 8.544885816
2003-01-01 8.497136174
2003-02-01 8.4645379
2003-03-01 8.455077922
2003-04-01 8.434485708
2003-05-01 8.395839521
2003-06-01 8.353448802
2003-07-01 8.323366828
2003-08-01 8.272360713
2003-09-01 8.256441706
2003-10-01 8.228072575
2003-11-01 8.198637451
2003-12-01 8.147957011
2004-01-01 8.113645987
2004-02-01 8.051983518
2004-03-01 7.989427051
2004-04-01 7.94373754
2004-05-01 7.912444885
2004-06-01 7.87588976
2004-07-01 7.845330492
2004-08-01 7.818807848
2004-09-01 7.75991065
2004-10-01 7.714431776
2004-11-01 7.657350195
2004-12-01 7.574750757
2005-01-01 7.527501283
2005-02-01 7.500876348
2005-03-01 7.462826849
2005-04-01 7.412860429
2005-05-01 7.352633439
2005-06-01 7.295349367
2005-07-01 7.238369271
2005-08-01 7.188579989
2005-09-01 7.136240466
2005-10-01 7.085665012
2005-11-01 7.054713096
2005-12-01 7.023864306
2006-01-01 6.977383082
2006-02-01 6.946358117
2006-03-01 6.907713383
2006-04-01 6.873758933
2006-05-01 6.847685522
2006-06-01 6.816424251
2006-07-01 6.778093348
2006-08-01 6.763648492
2006-09-01 6.743515793
2006-10-01 6.735970104
2006-11-01 6.725970892
2006-12-01 6.711367583
2007-01-01 6.693994176
2007-02-01 6.682568883
2007-03-01 6.668560158
2007-04-01 6.649227381
2007-05-01 6.62707761
2007-06-01 6.616301495
2007-07-01 6.616757401
2007-08-01 6.606369579
2007-09-01 6.602583644
2007-10-01 6.594944779
2007-11-01 6.586401447
2007-12-01 6.584345714
2008-01-01 6.589050539
2008-02-01 6.599620601
2008-03-01 6.616996498
2008-04-01 6.643872334
2008-05-01 6.684524328
2008-06-01 6.729662154
2008-07-01 6.771604282
2008-08-01 6.825750378
2008-09-01 6.870187222
2008-10-01 6.890966074
2008-11-01 6.93548321
2008-12-01 6.986544317
2009-01-01 7.044987845
2009-02-01 7.053238677
2009-03-01 7.07978514
2009-04-01 7.086916744
2009-05-01 7.12275683
2009-06-01 7.176377444
2009-07-01 7.260869119
2009-08-01 7.338198263
2009-09-01 7.422877786
2009-10-01 7.525061257
2009-11-01 7.568013187
2009-12-01 7.638560078
2010-01-01 7.647795624
2010-02-01 7.678250457
2010-03-01 7.738547174
2010-04-01 7.816543281
2010-05-01 7.830351279
2010-06-01 7.813880179
2010-07-01 7.783874392
2010-08-01 7.799878998
2010-09-01 7.762599704
2010-10-01 7.731650039
2010-11-01 7.706613266
2010-12-01 7.64711485
2011-01-01 7.636477889
2011-02-01 7.609878881
2011-03-01 7.561883288
2011-04-01 7.541582654
2011-05-01 7.509583563
2011-06-01 7.464878233
2011-07-01 7.434328029
2011-08-01 7.384329621
2011-09-01 7.351283236
2011-10-01 7.345766949
2011-11-01 7.316647559
2011-12-01 7.286025663
2012-01-01 7.25146612
2012-02-01 7.252402367
2012-03-01 7.230503615
2012-04-01 7.194750424
2012-05-01 7.164376226
2012-06-01 7.145066967
2012-07-01 7.130808368
2012-08-01 7.121137806
2012-09-01 7.107983061
2012-10-01 7.072796337
2012-11-01 7.049808658
2012-12-01 7.014479061
2013-01-01 7.017863264
2013-02-01 7.000941914
2013-03-01 6.993063575
2013-04-01 6.976457977
2013-05-01 6.979811145
2013-06-01 6.960841242
2013-07-01 6.95503934
2013-08-01 6.927353892
2013-09-01 6.923190302
2013-10-01 6.930920981
2013-11-01 6.942241129
2013-12-01 6.926955252
2014-01-01 6.900869865
2014-02-01 6.884390976
2014-03-01 6.863904125
2014-04-01 6.865491059
2014-05-01 6.845328258
2014-06-01 6.824740107
2014-07-01 6.799563907
2014-08-01 6.784243493
2014-09-01 6.74564139
2014-10-01 6.709267841
2014-11-01 6.686019478
2014-12-01 6.644695563
2015-01-01 6.628753424
2015-02-01 6.617910657
2015-03-01 6.598499039
2015-04-01 6.560480938
2015-05-01 6.534458208
2015-06-01 6.525913443
2015-07-01 6.506781252
2015-08-01 6.485626139
2015-09-01 6.479076116
2015-10-01 6.459788132
2015-11-01 6.435124319
2015-12-01 6.419296509
2016-01-01 6.423306998
2016-02-01 6.409381038
2016-03-01 6.395765863
2016-04-01 6.389512309
2016-05-01 6.378130458
2016-06-01 6.361573153
2016-07-01 6.339554707
2016-08-01 6.333472896
2016-09-01 6.313272606
2016-10-01 6.301493684
2016-11-01 6.307440009
2016-12-01 6.316049636
2017-01-01 6.296047147
2017-02-01 6.297070032
2017-03-01 6.306535582
2017-04-01 6.311614154
2017-05-01 6.303677062
2017-06-01 6.288486122
2017-07-01 6.283363825
2017-08-01 6.278404148
2017-09-01 6.271011886
2017-10-01 6.270512705
2017-11-01 6.263424333
2017-12-01 6.244489961
2018-01-01 6.238659254
2018-02-01 6.228588066
2018-03-01 6.213383239
2018-04-01 6.204013508
2018-05-01 6.196302555
2018-06-01 6.199286231
2018-07-01 6.200976128
2018-08-01 6.192751412
2018-09-01 6.200896785
2018-10-01 6.198805679
2018-11-01 6.190004902
2018-12-01 6.174771812
2019-01-01 6.183340675
2019-02-01 6.177599578
2019-03-01 6.182445717
2019-04-01 6.180072692
2019-05-01 6.202124256
2019-06-01 6.189355221
2019-07-01 6.188487102
2019-08-01 6.172225442
2019-09-01 6.153661292
2019-10-01 6.139307989
2019-11-01 6.122354491
2019-12-01 6.116613587
2020-01-01 6.114246406
2020-02-01 6.11003229
2020-03-01 6.083398772
2020-04-01 6.074728126
2020-05-01 6.030314137
2020-06-01 6.023048395
2020-07-01 5.993409572
2020-08-01 5.98799345
2020-09-01 5.980213475
2020-10-01 5.960279226
2020-11-01 5.948080264
2020-12-01 5.929729593
2021-01-01 5.904052328
2021-02-01 5.896408409
2021-03-01 5.888596998
2021-04-01 5.886520222
2021-05-01 5.882474611
2021-06-01 5.871057546
2021-07-01 5.857865881
2021-08-01 5.841699834
2021-09-01 5.800525939
2021-10-01 5.767301303
2021-11-01 5.747738258
2021-12-01 5.692625421
2022-01-01 5.671666515
2022-02-01 5.651471103
2022-03-01 5.62099125
2022-04-01 5.589316031
2022-05-01 5.563067536
2022-06-01 5.534118007
2022-07-01 5.516636955
2022-08-01 5.502791309
2022-09-01 5.509439274
2022-10-01 5.522909242
2022-11-01 5.529124045
2022-12-01 5.551637797
2023-01-01 5.572600971
2023-02-01 5.580185819
2023-03-01 5.631420664
2023-04-01 5.670707145
2023-05-01 5.732459027
2023-06-01 5.795817966
2023-07-01 5.850909682
2023-08-01 5.902372674
2023-09-01 5.954338286
2023-10-01 6.005229137
2023-11-01 6.0535556
2023-12-01 6.096709272
2024-01-01 6.109000598
2024-02-01 6.139703177

Note: The data are a 12-month moving average of weighted capitalization rates in the industrial, retail, office, and multifamily sectors, based on national square footage in 2009.

Source: Real Capital Analytics; Andrew C. Florance, Norm G. Miller, Ruijue Peng, and Jay Spivey (2010), "Slicing, Dicing, and Scoping the Size of the U.S. Commercial Real Estate Market," Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, vol. 16 (May–August), pp. 101–18.

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Figure 1.16. Banks reported tightening lending standards for commercial real estate loans

This is a line chart titled "Banks reported tightening lending standards for commercial real estate loans." The x-axis measures time and ranges from 1997 to 2024. The data are quarterly. There is one line on the chart. The line shows "Net percentage of banks reporting." There is also a horizonal line marked at zero. Data points above zero to 100 are labeled "Tightening" and data points below zero to -100 are labeled "Easing." The series begins at about -7 in 1997 before a quick rise to around 40 in the middle of 1998. There is a dip and then an increase to 45 in 2000:Q1. There is a steady decrease and the series reaches its minimum of -25 in 2004:Q4. From there the series climbs to over 90 in 2008:Q4. From this peak, there is a decrease to below 0 starting in 2011 until 2015. The series has a small quick spike to around 27 in 2016, and remains roughly steady until another quick peak of 65 in 2020:Q2, before a dramatic decline to -17 in 2021:Q3. The series increased to 60 in mid-2023 before declining again to 20 in the final value for 2024:Q1.

Note: Banks' responses are weighted by their commercial real estate loan market shares. Survey respondents to the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices are asked about the changes over the quarter. The shaded bars with top caps indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: March 2001–November 2001, December 2007–June 2009, and February 2020–April 2020.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Return to text
Figure 1.17. House prices continued to increase in recent months

12-month percent change

Date Zillow CoreLogic Case-Shiller
2003-01-01 7.263325344 9.678970732 9.62727585
2003-02-01 7.348212249 9.623167733 9.758809442
2003-03-01 7.42269462 9.580487463 9.64979225
2003-04-01 7.503365548 9.496493054 9.462293432
2003-05-01 7.58896016 9.260170108 9.148108287
2003-06-01 7.650222201 9.001245789 8.910324532
2003-07-01 7.686484722 8.817260078 8.860861832
2003-08-01 7.720708153 8.961028176 9.011464764
2003-09-01 7.78877467 9.36735388 9.235795681
2003-10-01 7.864245207 9.868415397 9.386396068
2003-11-01 7.917256402 10.30474666 9.57833228
2003-12-01 7.943818691 10.86757998 9.815178923
2004-01-01 8.001816067 11.3589443 10.23110067
2004-02-01 8.129492042 11.76165048 10.67560196
2004-03-01 8.327783303 12.32588625 11.42216379
2004-04-01 8.56356039 12.99239681 12.02390988
2004-05-01 8.841710231 13.4892931 12.50758495
2004-06-01 9.175491721 14.13114973 12.97755761
2004-07-01 9.547996937 14.5069748 13.13776457
2004-08-01 9.885963511 14.57418145 13.1205413
2004-09-01 10.16034558 14.72051251 13.15290341
2004-10-01 10.37821778 14.97593235 13.27728656
2004-11-01 10.58686272 15.1937203 13.49715356
2004-12-01 10.82348894 15.46762967 13.6360381
2005-01-01 11.05863811 15.57258385 13.80143558
2005-02-01 11.26332901 15.82524358 14.00408364
2005-03-01 11.42054722 16.21193679 14.22820655
2005-04-01 11.60176697 16.36076032 14.24271446
2005-05-01 11.73581344 16.20894327 14.29919773
2005-06-01 11.83335718 16.00069832 14.2838161
2005-07-01 11.85643244 15.87198604 14.28383878
2005-08-01 11.87608526 16.020985 14.3748781
2005-09-01 11.89063024 16.24832377 14.50583457
2005-10-01 11.89193234 15.96984592 14.36340371
2005-11-01 11.86637773 15.59444552 14.07619048
2005-12-01 11.76464289 15.1687426 13.51232117
2006-01-01 11.57384325 14.65435426 12.92699682
2006-02-01 11.31665325 13.79734021 12.0923913
2006-03-01 11.03966654 12.50052516 11.0402236
2006-04-01 10.69886656 10.95554709 9.97005988
2006-05-01 10.29101116 9.330695625 8.753096614
2006-06-01 9.75908602 7.486807535 7.28403674
2006-07-01 9.100213215 5.897810058 6.036760482
2006-08-01 8.335084794 4.509524688 4.820372897
2006-09-01 7.481758771 3.318749684 3.710376668
2006-10-01 6.633941826 2.404379631 2.965034965
2006-11-01 5.811384239 1.443279212 2.204040741
2006-12-01 5.055055526 0.360397088 1.732274721
2007-01-01 4.392143898 -0.536970654 1.045180556
2007-02-01 3.786648183 -1.38672525 0.534435262
2007-03-01 3.178519306 -2.688552684 -0.306429549
2007-04-01 2.532389019 -3.563242903 -0.827661312
2007-05-01 1.843834993 -4.210582545 -1.355895433
2007-06-01 1.154644726 -4.529195785 -1.63099431
2007-07-01 0.482553639 -4.866322665 -1.960890526
2007-08-01 -0.128110868 -5.442150213 -2.261388286
2007-09-01 -0.67639621 -6.341676488 -2.757871878
2007-10-01 -1.184629886 -7.471845198 -3.542515621
2007-11-01 -1.691996544 -8.618457275 -4.612536078
2007-12-01 -2.19139619 -9.706142858 -5.397587731
2008-01-01 -2.727560432 -10.8951061 -6.370402802
2008-02-01 -3.317288652 -11.99905354 -7.277908697
2008-03-01 -3.972761625 -12.66020806 -7.843460124
2008-04-01 -4.679349976 -13.24888305 -8.131554384
2008-05-01 -5.358610667 -13.37226804 -8.170222124
2008-06-01 -5.998077059 -13.40659377 -8.262641842
2008-07-01 -6.586098694 -13.71448919 -8.442455384
2008-08-01 -7.225578102 -14.11288273 -8.849803029
2008-09-01 -7.829036688 -14.92313703 -9.608083966
2008-10-01 -8.39175235 -15.72309374 -10.34754689
2008-11-01 -8.872924735 -16.22159071 -10.89860699
2008-12-01 -9.328513319 -16.99799061 -11.99953848
2009-01-01 -9.705025777 -17.48510489 -12.69581482
2009-02-01 -9.909142227 -17.08440865 -12.74898044
2009-03-01 -9.987654922 -16.30912183 -12.73972603
2009-04-01 -9.97954847 -15.0396562