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Release Date: May 14, 2021
Table 15 Industrial Production: Reliability Estimates
Seasonally adjusted
Sector Annualized
Change
2012=100 Percent change
2020
Q4
2021
Q1
2020 2021 2020 2021
Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr.
       
Total index      
85th percentile 9.56 1.97 104.82 105.98 106.95 103.31 106.01 106.74 .89 1.11 .96 -3.34 2.74 1.07
Current estimate 9.48 1.17 104.82 105.93 106.84 103.11 105.61 106.31 .89 1.05 .86 -3.49 2.42 .67
15th percentile 9.43 .59 104.82 105.88 106.75 102.95 105.34 105.91 .89 1.01 .79 -3.60 2.18 .32
       
  Manufacturing (SIC)      
85th percentile 12.50 1.90 101.85 102.64 103.94 99.86 103.09 103.62 .94 .77 1.30 -3.89 3.31 .68
Current estimate 12.41 1.23 101.85 102.57 103.81 99.66 102.79 103.19 .94 .71 1.21 -3.99 3.13 .39
15th percentile 12.35 .58 101.85 102.51 103.71 99.47 102.51 102.78 .94 .66 1.11 -4.10 2.98 .10
       
  Mining      
85th percentile 4.78 2.55 116.37 117.40 120.19 109.00 119.36 120.37 3.57 .88 2.47 -9.11 9.77 1.64
Current estimate 4.63 .48 116.37 117.27 119.88 108.45 118.09 118.91 3.57 .77 2.23 -9.54 8.89 .69
15th percentile 4.46 -1.67 116.37 117.13 119.52 107.90 116.91 117.38 3.57 .66 1.95 -9.89 8.16 -.19
       
  Electric and gas utilities      
85th percentile -3.72 4.92 101.56 105.47 102.19 110.67 102.10 104.62 -2.54 3.85 -3.09 8.40 -7.15 4.45
Current estimate -3.74 1.56 101.56 105.46 102.15 110.11 100.17 102.81 -2.54 3.84 -3.14 7.80 -9.03 2.63
15th percentile -3.76 -.20 101.56 105.44 102.06 109.85 99.02 101.75 -2.54 3.82 -3.24 7.59 -10.33 .86
       
Note. The reliability measures show the likely range of values for the IP indexes after their fifth and final monthly revision. The 15th (85th) percentile estimate is equal to the current estimate plus an amount such that the equivalent measure revised by a lower (higher) amount for only 15 percent of the months since 2008. More information is available at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/g17_technical_qa.htm#reliability.
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Last Update: May 14, 2021