Federal Reserve Seasonal Factors for Motor Vehicle Sales

The Federal Reserve Board has re-estimated seasonal factors for new motor vehicle sales, using data through April 2026; in the estimation, data for September 2025 and for January 2026 are identified as outliers due to changes in tax policy and a winter storm, respectively. These factors are estimated once per year using X13-ARIMA. The factors will be revised again in the fall of 2027.

The Federal Reserve Board provides seasonal factors for sales of cars and light trucks to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) for use in the National Income and Product Accounts. The BEA has posted on their website seasonal factors for motor vehicle sales from January 1967 (January 1976 for foreign light trucks) through September 2027. These factors are available for download here. A Technical Q&A with details on the calculation of the seasonal factors for light vehicles is available here.

The table below shows the Federal Reserve seasonal factors for monthly motor vehicle sales. For cars and light trucks, these are essentially the same seasonal factors that are available from the BEA extended through December 2028. For completed calendar years, the seasonal factors posted by the BEA may vary slightly from the factors posted here, reflecting small adjustments to align annual totals of the seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted data. The extended projections of the seasonal factors are prone to larger revisions each year than are the seasonal factor projections for months closer to the end of the data sample. A comma-delimited text file containing the monthly seasonal factors is available for download here (CSV).

Monthly Seasonal Factors for Motor Vehicle Sales

	Domestic Autos	Foreign Autos	Domestic Light Trucks	Foreign Light Trucks	Domestic Heavy Trucks	Foreign Heavy Trucks
							Jan-2021	81.56	78.04	80.36	81.81	83.20	74.05
Feb-2021	93.20	86.00	91.40	91.64	86.35	79.66
Mar-2021	112.60	107.16	105.66	107.91	108.12	103.43
Apr-2021	103.74	103.92	100.93	98.35	99.13	97.71
May-2021	114.66	114.21	108.93	109.77	97.34	101.02
Jun-2021	103.10	102.32	99.95	97.54	106.84	113.21
Jul-2021	102.81	109.10	103.75	107.32	98.78	98.33
Aug-2021	94.94	104.23	96.60	103.14	103.98	101.22
Sep-2021	99.65	95.62	100.67	95.05	104.31	96.68
Oct-2021	98.64	97.66	99.05	97.29	99.13	95.91
Nov-2021	89.70	93.47	94.86	94.28	94.73	88.70
Dec-2021	103.84	107.45	116.83	114.08	118.91	151.03
Jan-2022	82.06	78.29	80.71	82.02	84.34	77.96
Feb-2022	92.91	86.02	91.21	91.90	85.67	80.87
Mar-2022	115.87	108.19	109.21	110.89	106.81	104.20
Apr-2022	108.06	108.73	104.38	103.59	96.86	91.72
May-2022	106.82	108.31	102.27	102.68	99.86	102.94
Jun-2022	105.80	103.07	102.84	99.15	107.44	113.36
Jul-2022	99.61	107.75	100.60	105.10	96.29	97.26
Aug-2022	96.99	106.65	98.93	105.30	108.54	104.77
Sep-2022	99.48	96.61	100.23	95.45	102.86	95.42
Oct-2022	97.00	95.03	97.04	94.24	99.76	94.98
Nov-2022	91.90	95.20	97.68	96.03	94.18	90.81
Dec-2022	104.02	107.04	116.65	114.85	115.78	139.73
Jan-2023	82.57	78.52	81.10	82.29	86.22	84.83
Feb-2023	92.74	86.21	91.18	91.98	85.25	83.20
Mar-2023	115.06	109.05	108.44	111.30	106.33	105.90
Apr-2023	106.59	105.93	102.35	101.46	93.74	85.74
May-2023	109.08	110.51	105.00	104.81	104.65	107.29
Jun-2023	104.73	103.62	102.07	99.56	106.77	109.70
Jul-2023	97.58	104.40	98.40	102.20	97.92	98.85
Aug-2023	99.40	108.03	101.62	107.55	107.98	104.94
Sep-2023	103.65	100.87	103.42	99.01	100.37	90.93
Oct-2023	93.41	92.03	94.37	90.85	101.13	98.41
Nov-2023	92.08	94.25	97.77	94.94	94.10	93.11
Dec-2023	101.23	105.52	112.65	112.01	111.82	131.40
Jan-2024	84.99	80.37	83.75	84.57	90.00	92.75
Feb-2024	95.17	87.40	94.08	94.19	88.42	88.72
Mar-2024	116.20	111.46	108.66	113.75	100.02	96.30
Apr-2024	103.22	102.85	99.48	98.99	99.40	88.75
May-2024	111.14	112.72	107.34	107.14	104.15	110.27
Jun-2024	106.17	104.36	102.74	100.18	102.05	98.93
Jul-2024	96.19	102.88	98.20	101.28	104.26	108.97
Aug-2024	107.45	115.49	110.76	113.96	105.16	99.82
Sep-2024	91.13	90.78	89.12	88.17	99.67	90.14
Oct-2024	98.62	95.03	100.48	94.83	103.87	105.42
Nov-2024	94.77	99.38	100.43	99.51	91.20	87.91
Dec-2024	98.47	99.93	109.41	106.12	115.33	132.64
Jan-2025	84.57	81.32	83.55	85.76	89.15	98.56
Feb-2025	92.30	86.47	91.14	92.14	84.67	84.61
Mar-2025	113.98	108.27	106.20	110.56	100.75	95.01
Apr-2025	106.53	105.34	102.61	102.07	99.14	89.83
May-2025	115.38	116.48	110.87	111.71	101.64	104.14
Jun-2025	99.11	98.48	96.39	93.42	105.44	100.58
Jul-2025	98.84	103.75	101.52	103.83	104.00	112.57
Aug-2025	104.08	114.21	107.11	111.24	102.26	93.76
Sep-2025	93.76	92.81	91.76	90.64	102.77	92.11
Oct-2025	98.01	95.88	99.94	94.74	102.90	107.81
Nov-2025	92.96	96.64	98.34	96.24	88.29	85.07
Dec-2025	100.78	102.85	111.75	109.28	120.00	139.61
Jan-2026	88.63	83.44	87.00	88.91	86.75	95.43
Feb-2026	92.07	86.45	90.96	92.16	84.38	84.13
Mar-2026	109.61	104.85	102.98	107.09	102.11	96.86
Apr-2026	107.22	104.70	102.75	102.04	99.25	91.71
May-2026	111.90	114.92	107.42	109.10	98.70	98.49
Jun-2026	101.29	100.31	99.32	95.86	109.47	102.89
Jul-2026	98.11	104.49	100.96	103.92	104.38	115.89
Aug-2026	97.11	108.36	98.13	106.16	103.88	90.99
Sep-2026	101.29	96.83	100.41	93.87	102.79	93.37
Oct-2026	101.86	99.22	103.41	98.76	99.24	102.89
Nov-2026	87.10	91.67	92.64	90.10	90.26	88.17
Dec-2026	107.97	108.58	118.73	116.56	119.03	142.53
Jan-2027	83.06	79.14	81.86	83.37	83.91	92.92
Feb-2027	92.12	86.47	90.81	92.12	84.29	83.65
Mar-2027	112.51	107.21	106.07	109.71	105.97	101.25
Apr-2027	106.62	105.98	102.11	103.53	98.16	90.47
May-2027	112.42	113.56	108.21	109.07	100.08	96.34
Jun-2027	100.84	99.99	99.04	94.53	109.99	105.24
Jul-2027	101.97	107.90	104.57	108.63	102.12	111.92
Aug-2027	93.36	104.77	95.02	102.82	106.15	91.93
Sep-2027	101.96	96.01	100.50	92.77	102.96	94.78
Oct-2027	98.85	98.15	100.22	96.24	95.36	98.20
Nov-2027	89.28	93.63	95.61	92.88	92.74	90.84
Dec-2027	108.25	108.74	118.67	116.73	118.54	145.17
Jan-2028	81.00	77.53	79.53	80.89	84.94	92.85
Feb-2028	94.65	88.25	93.40	95.01	87.47	86.24
Mar-2028	115.18	109.59	108.76	112.54	104.98	104.43
Apr-2028	108.37	107.46	102.79	104.80	93.23	81.93
May-2028	107.84	109.68	104.56	104.40	106.59	103.07
Jun-2028	102.90	101.96	101.62	97.41	109.55	106.66
Jul-2028	97.16	103.34	99.13	103.07	100.19	107.76
Aug-2028	98.74	108.13	100.94	107.70	109.65	97.57
Sep-2028	105.34	101.23	103.14	97.34	99.74	90.03
Oct-2028	93.05	92.23	94.86	89.99	97.95	98.83
Nov-2028	91.67	94.62	98.38	94.19	92.41	94.47
Dec-2028	102.74	105.47	111.80	111.83	111.61	131.63

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