Federal Reserve Seasonal Factors for Motor Vehicle Sales

The Federal Reserve Board has re-estimated seasonal factors for new motor vehicle sales, using data through April 2025; in the estimation, data for December 2024, January 2025, and March-April 2025 are identified as outliers. These factors are estimated once per year using X13-ARIMA. The factors will be revised again in the fall of 2026.

The Federal Reserve Board provides seasonal factors for sales of cars and light trucks to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) for use in the National Income and Product Accounts. The BEA has posted on their website seasonal factors for motor vehicle sales from January 1967 (January 1976 for foreign light trucks) through September 2026. These factors are available for download here. A Technical Q&A with details on the calculation of the seasonal factors for light vehicles is available here.

The table below shows the Federal Reserve seasonal factors for monthly motor vehicle sales. For cars and light trucks, these are essentially the same seasonal factors that are available from the BEA extended through December 2027. For completed calendar years, the seasonal factors posted by the BEA may vary slightly from the factors posted here, reflecting small adjustments to align annual totals of the seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted data. The extended projections of the seasonal factors are prone to larger revisions each year than are the seasonal factor projections for months closer to the end of the data sample. A comma-delimited text file containing the monthly seasonal factors is available for download here (CSV).

Monthly Seasonal Factors for Motor Vehicle Sales

	Domestic Autos	Foreign Autos	Domestic Light Trucks	Foreign Light Trucks	Domestic Heavy Trucks	Foreign Heavy Trucks
							Jan-2020	82.89	81.85	83.05	85.16	88.50	75.00
Feb-2020	99.67	90.96	97.53	97.18	88.86	79.15
Mar-2020	109.40	104.29	102.22	105.10	104.48	99.54
Apr-2020	103.66	102.30	101.05	95.51	100.56	101.70
May-2020	114.87	114.13	108.46	109.63	95.74	102.32
Jun-2020	103.18	101.91	100.20	99.05	106.26	112.77
Jul-2020	99.21	105.15	100.02	102.14	100.50	99.56
Aug-2020	99.48	106.85	99.88	106.88	100.89	100.20
Sep-2020	98.72	95.73	100.30	96.45	104.10	95.59
Oct-2020	101.79	99.17	101.78	100.81	103.36	99.35
Nov-2020	87.94	93.12	91.78	91.74	92.75	86.23
Dec-2020	105.81	111.54	120.95	118.14	119.37	153.26
Jan-2021	81.88	79.97	81.67	82.97	83.45	72.48
Feb-2021	92.73	86.02	91.52	91.20	86.85	79.29
Mar-2021	111.85	105.78	105.33	107.23	108.48	104.30
Apr-2021	103.18	103.21	100.79	97.09	99.27	99.54
May-2021	115.29	112.94	109.16	109.75	96.71	101.78
Jun-2021	103.09	101.71	99.94	97.82	105.81	112.74
Jul-2021	103.10	108.92	103.12	106.64	97.71	95.57
Aug-2021	94.52	103.24	95.84	102.95	102.69	100.44
Sep-2021	99.56	95.05	100.37	95.40	104.69	96.18
Oct-2021	99.78	98.40	99.13	98.72	100.21	96.22
Nov-2021	90.47	95.16	94.79	94.29	95.78	88.34
Dec-2021	103.21	109.15	117.11	114.24	119.27	154.64
Jan-2022	82.27	80.42	82.21	83.46	84.72	76.48
Feb-2022	92.37	85.99	91.46	91.41	86.43	79.93
Mar-2022	114.83	106.52	108.61	109.74	107.64	105.07
Apr-2022	107.61	107.67	104.47	101.88	97.05	94.62
May-2022	107.43	106.83	102.55	102.78	98.65	103.84
Jun-2022	105.95	102.56	102.73	99.72	106.04	112.91
Jul-2022	99.88	107.68	99.85	104.22	94.59	92.87
Aug-2022	96.47	105.59	98.06	104.92	106.64	104.22
Sep-2022	98.92	95.79	99.79	96.21	103.19	93.86
Oct-2022	98.78	96.00	97.11	95.92	101.57	96.25
Nov-2022	93.18	97.27	97.81	95.96	95.99	90.42
Dec-2022	102.85	108.64	116.64	114.99	116.05	144.36
Jan-2023	82.66	80.84	82.77	84.00	86.55	82.49
Feb-2023	92.15	86.16	91.58	91.46	86.25	81.54
Mar-2023	113.60	107.05	107.89	109.77	107.49	106.99
Apr-2023	106.26	104.76	102.48	99.29	94.33	89.88
May-2023	110.01	108.84	105.50	104.95	102.82	109.56
Jun-2023	104.70	102.98	101.86	100.52	104.58	107.99
Jul-2023	98.07	104.66	97.46	101.13	95.69	93.54
Aug-2023	98.83	107.10	100.41	107.02	105.86	104.10
Sep-2023	103.08	99.93	103.10	100.11	100.64	89.14
Oct-2023	95.15	92.91	94.31	92.95	103.41	99.50
Nov-2023	93.94	96.82	97.95	94.70	96.69	92.93
Dec-2023	99.71	107.02	112.76	112.09	112.25	136.51
Jan-2024	85.04	82.86	85.72	86.47	90.41	90.53
Feb-2024	94.58	87.34	94.47	93.53	89.71	86.67
Mar-2024	114.49	109.07	108.12	111.94	101.13	97.08
Apr-2024	102.42	101.28	99.45	96.57	99.85	93.90
May-2024	112.36	111.06	107.99	107.35	102.16	113.15
Jun-2024	106.56	103.84	102.70	101.37	99.59	97.46
Jul-2024	96.46	103.09	97.04	100.11	101.32	101.53
Aug-2024	106.63	114.49	109.29	113.53	102.70	98.84
Sep-2024	90.59	90.00	88.74	89.13	100.23	88.19
Oct-2024	101.00	96.18	100.41	97.37	106.77	107.19
Nov-2024	96.97	102.19	100.80	99.38	93.84	87.30
Dec-2024	96.81	101.53	109.38	105.94	115.84	138.84
Jan-2025	84.34	83.83	85.57	87.97	89.78	95.78
Feb-2025	91.55	86.21	91.70	91.40	85.94	82.19
Mar-2025	112.19	105.81	105.54	108.35	102.12	96.33
Apr-2025	105.76	103.61	102.78	99.30	99.80	96.13
May-2025	117.06	114.68	111.60	112.09	99.30	107.32
Jun-2025	99.30	97.96	96.30	94.70	102.47	98.77
Jul-2025	99.28	104.22	100.06	102.50	100.78	103.42
Aug-2025	103.06	113.18	105.64	110.73	99.62	92.56
Sep-2025	92.93	91.84	91.19	91.92	103.15	89.51
Oct-2025	100.68	97.30	100.03	97.68	106.19	110.15
Nov-2025	95.62	99.69	98.73	95.94	91.49	84.55
Dec-2025	98.67	104.22	111.74	109.09	120.62	147.80
Jan-2026	88.70	86.08	89.29	91.35	87.32	92.41
Feb-2026	91.29	86.20	91.60	91.36	85.81	81.33
Mar-2026	107.19	102.18	102.07	104.65	103.56	97.64
Apr-2026	106.63	103.09	102.96	98.95	100.28	99.44
May-2026	113.62	112.92	108.34	109.66	96.14	101.96
Jun-2026	101.42	99.65	99.12	97.39	105.69	100.37
Jul-2026	98.53	105.12	99.55	102.49	100.73	105.41
Aug-2026	96.41	107.66	96.66	105.33	101.04	89.99
Sep-2026	100.15	95.74	99.78	95.56	103.37	90.39
Oct-2026	105.10	100.97	103.47	102.14	102.67	105.52
Nov-2026	89.65	94.70	93.01	89.78	94.00	87.73
Dec-2026	105.75	109.91	118.84	116.37	119.86	151.62
Jan-2027	82.84	81.37	83.96	85.70	84.51	89.66
Feb-2027	91.30	86.28	91.55	91.32	85.86	80.35
Mar-2027	109.78	104.45	105.17	106.84	107.65	102.43
Apr-2027	105.75	103.99	102.28	100.20	99.20	98.42
May-2027	114.44	111.52	109.09	109.78	97.27	100.91
Jun-2027	101.29	99.63	99.06	96.20	105.80	102.46
Jul-2027	102.65	108.76	102.93	107.09	97.98	100.41
Aug-2027	92.30	103.87	93.33	101.96	102.80	90.46
Sep-2027	100.88	95.09	99.83	94.60	103.84	91.82
Oct-2027	102.11	99.87	100.43	99.76	99.15	100.89
Nov-2027	92.01	96.70	95.93	92.64	96.90	89.92
Dec-2027	105.73	110.05	118.78	116.50	119.45	155.50

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