Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS)
August 2019
Monetary Policy and Bank Equity Values in a Time of Low and Negative Interest Rates
Miguel Ampudia and Skander J. Van den Heuvel
Abstract:
Does banks' exposure to interest rate risk change when interest rates are very low or even negative? Using a high-frequency event study methodology and intraday data, we find that the effect of surprise interest rate cuts announced by the ECB on European bank equity values – an effect that is normally positive – has become negative since interest rates in the euro area reached zero and below. Since then, a further unexpected cut of 25 basis points in the short-term policy rate lowered banks' stock prices by about 2% on average, compared to a 1% increase in normal times. In the cross section, this 'reversal' was far more pronounced for banks with a more traditional, deposit-intensive funding mix. We argue that the reversal as well as its cross-sectional pattern can be explained by the zero lower bound on interest rates on retail deposits.
Accessible materials (.zip)
Keywords: Bank profitability, Interest rate risk, Monetary policy, Negative interest rates
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2019.064
PDF: Full Paper