Photo of Michael T. Kiley

Michael T. Kiley

Education

  • Ph.D., Economics, University of Maryland, 1996
  • M.A., Economics, University of Maryland, 1993
  • B.A., Economics, University of Delaware, 1991
Current Research Topics
  • Financial Stability and Monetary Policy
  • Macroeconomics of Low Interest Rates
  • Senior Adviser (Associate/Assistant Director), Research and Statistics

    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

    2007 - 2017
  • Lecturer

    Johns Hopkins University

    2016
  • Chief, Macroeconomics and Quantitative Studies

    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

    2003 - 2007
  • Economist

    Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

    2001 - 2003
  • Economist

    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

    1996 - 2003
  • Lecturer

    Johns Hopkins University

    2000 - 2001
  • Visiting Assistant Professor

    University of Michigan at Ann Arbor

    1998
  • Anchored or Not: A Short Summary of a Bayesian Approach to the Persistence of Inflation
    Michael T. Kiley
    FEDS Notes (2022)
    https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3049
  • Anchored or Not: How Much Information Does 21st Century Data Contain on Inflation Dynamics?
    Michael T. Kiley
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2022)
    https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2022.016
  • Growth at Risk From Climate Change
    Michael T. Kiley
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2021)
    https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2021.054
  • What macroeconomic conditions lead financial crises?
    Michael T. Kiley
    Journal of International Money and Finance (2021)
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2020.102316
    See also » FRB Working Paper (2018)
  • The Global Equilibrium Real Interest Rate: Concepts, Estimates, and Challenges
    Michael T. Kiley
    Annual Review of Financial Economics (2020)
    https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-financial-012820-012703
    See also » FRB Working Paper (2019)
  • Financial Conditions and Economic Activity: Insights from Machine Learning
    Michael T. Kiley
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2020)
    https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2020.095
  • Pandemic Recession Dynamics: The Role of Monetary Policy in Shifting a U-Shaped Recession to a V-Shaped Rebound
    Michael T. Kiley
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2020)
    https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2020.083
  • What Can the Data Tell Us About the Equilibrium Real Interest Rate?
    Michael T. Kiley
    International Journal of Central Banking (2020)
    See also » FRB Working Paper (2015)
  • Monetary Policy Space in a Recession: Some Simple Interest Rate Arithmetic
    Michael T. Kiley
    FEDS Notes (2020)
    https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2484
  • The Global Equilibrium Real Interest Rate: Concepts, Estimates, and Challenges
    Michael T. Kiley
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2019)
    https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2019.076
  • Comment on 'The Optimal Inflation Target and the Natural Rate of Interest'
    Michael T. Kiley
    Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2019)
  • Monetary Policy Strategies for a Low-Rate Environment
    Ben Bernanke, Michael T. Kiley, and John M. Roberts
    American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings (2019)
    https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20191082
    See also » FRB Working Paper (2019)
  • Macroeconomic Effects of Banking Sector Losses across Structural Models
    Luca Guerrieri, Matteo Iacoviello, Francisco Covas, John C. Driscoll, Mohammad Jahan-Parvar, Michael Kiley, Albert Queralto, and Jae Sim
    International Journal of Central Banking (2019)
    See also » FRB Working Paper (2015)
  • Unemployment Risk
    Michael T. Kiley
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2018)
    https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2018.067
  • Some Implications of Uncertainty and Misperception for Monetary Policy
    Christopher Erceg, James Hebden, Michael Kiley, David López-Salido, and Robert Tetlow
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2018)
    https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2018.059
  • What Macroeconomic Conditions Lead Financial Crises?
    Michael T. Kiley
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2018)
    https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2018.038
  • Quantitative Easing and the ‘New Normal’ in Monetary Policy
    Michael T. Kiley
    Manchester School (2018)
    https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.12238
  • Optimal Monetary and Macroprudential Policies: Gains and Pitfalls in a Model of Financial Intermediation
    Michael T. Kiley and Jae Sim
    Journal of Macroeconomics (2017)
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2017.05.008
    See also » FRB Working Paper (2015)
  • Mapping Heat in the U.S. Financial System
    David Aikman, Michael T. Kiley, Seung Jung Lee, Michael G. Palumbo, and Missaka N. Warusawitharana
    Journal of Banking & Finance (2017)
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2017.04.013
    See also » FRB Working Paper (2015)
  • Monetary Policy in a Low Interest Rate World
    Michael T. Kiley and John M. Roberts
    Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2017)
    See also » FRB Working Paper (2017)
  • Macroeconomic Modeling of Financial Frictions for Macroprudential Policymaking: A Review of Pressing Challenges
    Michael T. Kiley
    FEDS Notes (2016)
    https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.1785
  • Policy Paradoxes in the New Keynesian Model
    Michael T. Kiley
    Review of Economic Dynamics (2016)
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2016.03.002
    See also » FRB Working Paper (2014)
  • An Evaluation of the Inflationary Pressure Associated with Short- and Long-Term Unemployment
    Michael T. Kiley
    Economics Letters (2015)
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2015.10.005
    See also » FRB Working Paper (2014)
  • Low Inflation in the United States: A Summary of Recent Research
    Michael T. Kiley
    FEDS Notes (2015)
    https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.1665
  • Effective Monetary Policy Strategies in New Keynesian Models: A Reexamination
    Hess Chung, Edward Herbst, and Michael T. Kiley
    NBER Macroeconomics Annual Book Series (2015)
    https://doi.org/10.1086/680629
  • The Response of Equity Prices to Movements in Long-Term Interest Rates Associated with Monetary Policy Statements: Before and after the Zero Lower Bound
    Michael T. Kiley
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (2014)
    https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12129
    See also » FRB Working Paper (2013)
  • The Role of Financial Imbalances in Assessing the State of the Economy
    David M. Arseneau and Michael T. Kiley
    FEDS Notes (2014)
    https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.0015
  • Bank Capital and the Macroeconomy: Policy Considerations
    Michael T. Kiley and Jae W. Sim
    Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control (2014)
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2014.01.024
  • The Aggregate Demand Effects of Short- and Long-Term Interest Rates
    Michael T. Kiley
    International Journal of Central Banking (2014)
    See also » FRB Working Paper (2012)
  • Output Gaps
    Michael T. Kiley
    Journal of Macroeconomics (2013)
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2013.04.002
    See also » FRB Working Paper (2013)
  • Monetary Policy Statements, Treasury Yields, and Private Yields: Before and After the Zero Lower Bound
    Michael T. Kiley
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2013)
    https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2013.16
  • Exchange Rates, Monetary Policy Statements, and Uncovered Interest Parity: Before and After the Zero Lower Bound
    Michael T. Kiley
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2013)
    https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2013.17
  • Monetary Policy and the Global Housing Bubble
    Jane Dokko, Brian M. Doyle, Michael T. Kiley, Jinill Kim, Shane Sherlund, Jae Sim, and Skander J. Van den Heuvel
    Economic Policy (2011)
    https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0327.2011.00262.x
  • Documentation of the Estimated, Dynamic, Optimization- Based (EDO) Model of the U.S. Economy
    Hess Chung, Michael T. Kiley, and Jean-Philippe Laforte
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2010)
    https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2010.29
  • Habit Persistence, Nonseparability between Consumption and Leisure, Or Rule-of-Thumb Consumers: Which Accounts for the Predictability of Consumption Growth?
    Michael T. Kiley
    Review of Economics and Statistics (2010)
    https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00019
    See also » FRB Working Paper (2007)
  • A Comparison of Forecast Performance between Federal Reserve Staff Forecasts, Simple Reduced-Form Models, and a DSGE Model
    Rochelle M. Edge, Michael T. Kiley, and Jean-Philippe Laforte
    Journal of Applied Econometrics (2010)
    https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.1175
    See also » FRB Working Paper (2009)
  • How Has the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Evolved Over Time?
    Jean Boivin, Michael T. Kiley, and Frederic S. Mishkin
    Handbook of Monetary Economics, Vol. 3 (2010)
    https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-444-53238-1.00008-9
    See also » FRB Working Paper (2010)
  • Inflation Expectations, Uncertainty, the Phillips Curve, and Monetary Policy
    Michael T. Kiley
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2009)
    https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2009.15
  • Comments on 'Inflation Expectations, Uncertainty, the Phillips Curve, and Monetary Policy' by Christopher A. Sims
    Michael T. Kiley
    Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy: A Phillips Curve Retrospective (2009)
  • Estimating the Common Trend Rate of Inflation for Consumer Prices and Consumer Prices Excluding Food and Energy Prices
    Michael T. Kiley
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2008)
    https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2008.38
  • Monetary Policy Actions and Long-Run Inflation Expectations
    Michael T. Kiley
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2008)
    https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2008.03
  • Natural Rate Measures in an Estimated DSGE Model of the U.S. Economy
    Rochelle M. Edge, Michael T. Kiley, and Jean-Philippe Laforte
    Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control (2008)
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2007.09.011
    See also » FRB Working Paper (2007)
  • Is Moderate-to-High Inflation Inherently Unstable?
    Michael T. Kiley
    International Journal of Central Banking (2007)
    See also » FRB Working Paper (2004)
  • A Quantitative Comparison of Sticky-Price and Sticky-Information Models of Price Setting
    Michael T. Kiley
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (2007)
    https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2007.00017.x
    See also » FRB Working Paper (2006)
  • The Economic Impact of the Computer Revolution: A Progress Report
    Michael T. Kiley
    Knowledge Economy, Information Technologies and Growth (2004)
  • Stock Prices and Fundamentals: A Macroeconomic Perspective
    Michael T. Kiley
    Journal of Business (2004)
  • Product Market Competition and Economic Performance in the United States
    Hannes Suppanz, Michael Wise, and Michael Kiley
    OECD Economics Department Working Papers (2004)
    https://doi.org/10.1787/334545122257
  • Why Is Inflation Low When Productivity Growth Is High?
    Michael T. Kiley
    Economic Inquiry (2003)
    https://doi.org/10.1093/ei/cbg016
  • How should Unemployment Benefits Respond to the Business Cycle?
    Michael T. Kiley
    Topics in Economic Analysis and Policy (2003)
    https://doi.org/10.2202/1538-0653.1066
    See also » FRB Working Paper (2003)
  • An Analytical Approach to the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles and the Benefit from Activist Monetary Policy
    Michael T. Kiley
    Contributions to Macroeconomics (2003)
    https://doi.org/10.2202/1534-6005.1089
    See also » FRB Working Paper (2001)
  • The Lead of Output over Inflation in Sticky Price Models
    Michael Kiley
    Economics Bulletin (2002)
    See also » FRB Working Paper (1997)
  • Partial Adjustment and Staggered Price Setting
    Michael T. Kiley
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (2002)
    See also » FRB Working Paper (1999)
  • Computers and Growth with Frictions: Aggregate and Disaggregate Evidence
    Michael T. Kiley
    Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy (2001)
    https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-2231(01)00056-2
  • Endogenous Price Stickiness and Business Cycle Persistence
    Michael T. Kiley
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (2000)
    https://doi.org/10.2307/2601091
    See also » FRB Working Paper (1997)
  • The Supply of Skilled Labour and Skill-Biased Technological Progress
    Michael T. Kiley
    Economic Journal (1999)
    https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0297.00470
    See also » FRB Working Paper (1997)
  • Monetary Policy under Neoclassical and New-Keynesian Phillips Curves, with an Application to Price Level and Inflation Targeting
    Michael T. Kiley
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series (1998)
    https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.1998.27
  • Predicting Tax Rate Changes: Insights from the Permanent Income Hypothesis
    Michael T. Kiley
    Journal of Macroeconomics (1998)
    https://doi.org/10.1016/S0164-0704(98)00051-2
  • Efficiency Wages, Nominal Rigidities, and the Cyclical Behavior of Real Wages and Marginal Cost
    Michael T. Kiley
    Economics Letters (1997)
    https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1765(97)81903-9
    See also » FRB Working Paper (1997)
Last update: April 18, 2022