Accessible Version

Changes in the U.S. Economy and Rural-Urban Employment Disparities, Accessible Data

Figure 1. Agricultural production and farm employment, 1969-2021
Year Value of agricultural sector production (in billions) Farm employment: proprietors and employees (in millions)
1969 312 4.0
1970 310 4.0
1971 316 3.9
1972 347 3.9
1973 479 3.9
1974 442 4.0
1975 411 3.9
1976 396 4.0
1977 387 3.9
1978 424 3.8
1979 467 3.8
1980 419 3.8
1981 424 3.8
1982 381 3.7
1983 328 3.9
1984 373 3.7
1985 345 3.5
1986 318 3.3
1987 325 3.3
1988 331 3.3
1989 355 3.2
1990 359 3.2
1991 338 3.1
1992 346 3.1
1993 336 3.1
1994 358 3.1
1995 339 3.1
1996 375 3.1
1997 371 3.1
1998 346 3.1
1999 326 3.2
2000 326 3.1
2001 331 3.1
2002 310 2.9
2003 339 2.8
2004 385 2.7
2005 361 2.7
2006 346 2.6
2007 409 2.7
2008 434 2.6
2009 391 2.6
2010 419 2.6
2011 483 2.6
2012 499 2.6
2013 533 2.6
2014 530 2.6
2015 473 2.7
2016 439 2.6
2017 443 2.6
2018 431 2.6
2019 410 2.6
2020 407 2.6
2021 478 2.6

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, USDA Farm Income and Wealth Statistics

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Figure 2. Manufacturing employment and output, 2001-2021

Change in U.S Maunfacturing (2001=100)

Year Metro Employment Nonmetro Employment Manufacturing Value-add
2001 100 100 100
2002 93 94 101
2003 88 91 107
2004 87 90 114
2005 86 90 117
2006 86 89 124
2007 85 87 128
2008 82 84 126
2009 74 74 114
2010 71 72 120
2011 73 74 121
2012 74 75 120
2013 75 77 124
2014 76 78 126
2015 77 79 127
2016 77 79 127
2017 78 79 131
2018 79 81 137
2019 80 81 139
2020 76 76 133
2021 77 78 141

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.N. Industrial Development Organization

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Figure 3. Metro and nonmetro exposure to the manufacturing industry

Percent of Total

  Income Employment
2001 2010 2021 2001 2010 2021
Metro counties 12.6 9.2 8.1 9.6 6.5 6.0
Nonmetro counties 19.3 14.1 14.7 14.1 10.2 10.6

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Figure 4. Mining Activity and Employment, 1998-2021

Change in Mining Industry Activity and Employment, (2000=100)

Year Employment, oil and gas extraction Employment, coal mining
1998 112 118
1999 104 109
2000 100 100
2001 100 103
2002 98 103
2003 96 97
2004 97 98
2005 100 102
2006 107 108
2007 116 107
2008 129 113
2009 129 113
2010 127 112
2011 137 121
2012 150 117
2013 158 108
2014 160 101
2015 157 89
2016 140 70
2017 115 71
2018 114 72
2019 114 70
2020 101 55
2021 90 52

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Energy Information Administration

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Figure 5. Occupational employment shares among working-age adults by commuting zone population density and occupational skill-level, relative to 1970 mean: 1970-2015

The figure shows the relative prevalence of occupations of different skill levels by the population density of commuting zones. It includes three charts, one for low-skill occupations at the far left, one for mid-skill occupations in the middle, and one for high-skill occupations at the far right. The vertical, y-axis represents the share of employment in occupations of that skill-level in individual commuting zones relative to the aggregate mean share of employment in occupations of that skill-level in 1970. The horizontal, x-axis represents the natural log of population density of commuting zones in 1970. The charts include data for five separate time periods: 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2015.

Each of the lines in the chart for low-skill occupations slope downwards and to the right, indicating that low-skill occupations are relatively more prevalent in less dense commuting zones and less prevalent in more dense commuting zones. The line for 2015 has a slight uptick at the far right not present for other years, indicating that less-skilled occupations have become somewhat more prevalent in more dense commuting zones relative to earlier years. The lines for 1980, 1990, and 2000 are each slightly lower than the line for the decade preceding it, indicating that low-skill occupations have become moderately less prevalent across commuting zones of all densities over those 30 years.

The lines for 1970 and 1980 in the mid-skill occupations chart slope upwards and to the right, indicating that mid-skill occupations were relatively more prevalent in more dense commuting zones and less prevalent in less dense commuting zones at those times. The slope of the line for 1980 is smaller than the line for 1970, indicating that more-dense commuting zones had less of an advantage in terms of the presence of mid-skill occupations than in the earlier decade. The lines for 1990 and 2000 in the mid-skill occupations chart arc from left to right, starting around the same point as the lines for the earlier decades, rising to about the middle of the chart and then falling back down to around their starting point at the far left of the chart, indicating that mid-skill occupations were most prevalent in commuting zones of moderate density, and less prevalent in both less-dense and more-dense commuting zones, during those time periods. For all points but the starting point, the 1990 line is lower than the 1980 line, indicating that mid-skill occupations were less prevalent in this time period than they were in the earlier decade, especially in more-dense commuting zones. For all points but the starting point, the 2000 line is lower than the 1990 line, indicating that mid-skill occupations were less prevalent in this time period than they were in the earlier decade, especially in more-dense commuting zones. The line for 2015 is about flat for the first half of the chart and then arcs slowly downward and to the right, indicating that mid-skill occupations are less prevalent in more-dense commuting zones than they are in less-dense and moderately dense commuting zones. At all points the 2015 line is lower than the 2000 line, indicating that mid-skill occupations are less prevalent in 2015 than in earlier years across all commuting zone densities.

Each of the lines in the chart for high-skill occupations slope upwards and to the right, indicating that high-skill occupations are relatively less prevalent in less dense commuting zones and more prevalent in more dense commuting zones. The line for 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2015 are each slightly higher than the line for the time period preceding it, indicating that high-skill occupations have become more prevalent across commuting zones of all densities over those 30 years. The slope of the line for 1990, 2000, and 2015 is larger than it is for 1970 and 1980, indicating that the relative advantage of more dense commuting zones in terms of the presence of high-skill occupations has strengthened in recent years.

Notes: Figure is constructed using U.S. Census of Population data for 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000, and pooled American Community Survey (ACS) data for years 2014 through 2016, sourced from IPUMS (Ruggles et al. 2018). Occupational classifications are harmonized across decades using the classification scheme developed by Dorn (2009) and distilled to the level of 722 consistent local labor markets (AKA, Commuting Zones) following the procedures in Autor and Dorn (2013). Each plotted point represents approximately 5 percent of the working-age population in the relevant year.

Source: David H. Autor. (2019). Work of the Past, Work of the Future. AEA Papers and Proceedings, 109, pgs. 1-32.

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Figure 6. Overall employment change by metro status, 2000-2022

Change in total employment (2007 = 100)

Year Metro Nonmetro
2000 95 97
2001 95 97
2002 94 96
2003 94 96
2004 95 97
2005 97 98
2006 99 99
2007 100 100
2008 100 99
2009 95 95
2010 94 94
2011 96 95
2012 97 96
2013 99 96
2014 101 97
2015 103 98
2016 105 98
2017 107 99
2018 109 99
2019 110 100
2020 103 95
2021 106 97
2022 111 99

Source: BLS, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, Annual Averages

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Last Update: January 19, 2024