Electricity Demand as a High-Frequency Economic Indicator: A Case Study of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Hurricane Harvey, Accessible Data

Figure 1. Effect of COVID-19 on Electricity Demand in Texas by Customer Class

Description: Four panels with line/dot plots. The vertical axis reports the percent change in electricity demand relative to the average value in February 2020 and the horizontal axis reports the date of consumption from February 2020 to August 2020, at a weekly frequency. There is a dot for each week corresponding to the percent change in electricity demand relative to the average value in February 2020. The vertical capped bars around the dots indicate the 95 percent confidence interval. The dashed gray line shows when local stay-at-home orders went into effect in Houston, Dallas, and Austin on March 24. The solid red lines show when the state-wide stay-at-home order was in place between April 2 and April 30. The dashed red line shows when Governor Abbot ordered bars to close again effective June 26. Panel A in the top left shows the data for overall Texas demand, which fell between 4 to 8 percent from April to July. Panel B in the top right shows the data for residential demand, which increased up to 18 percent from April to July. Panel C in the bottom left shows the data for small C&I (commercial and industrial customers), which decreased by as much as 17 percent in April before recovering slightly in May and June. Panel D in the bottom right shows the data for large C&I, which experienced major reductions of up to 15 percent in April followed by a sustained level of depressed demand through May and June.

Note: Dots represent weekly deviation from demand from the same week of the year in previous years conditional on outdoor temperature and fixed effects. Results are normalized based on the average coefficient values in February 2020 for ease of interpretation. The vertical capped bars indicate the 95 percent confidence interval. The dashed gray line shows when local stay-at-home orders went into effect in Houston, Dallas, and Austin on March 24. The solid red lines show when the state-wide stay-at-home order was in place between April 2 and April 30. The dashed red line shows when Governor Abbot ordered bars to close again effective on June 26. Phased reopening began May 1 and continued through June.

Source: Electric Reliability Council of Texas.

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Figure 2. Effect of COVID-19 on Electricity Demand in Texas by Region

Description: Two panels with line/dot plots. The vertical axis reports the percent change in electricity demand relative to the average value in February 2020 and the horizontal axis reports the date of consumption from February 2020 to August 2020, at a weekly frequency. There is a dot for each week corresponding to the percent change in electricity demand relative to the average value in February 2020. The vertical capped bars around the dots indicate the 95 percent confidence interval. The dashed gray line in panel A shows when a local stay-at-home order went into effect in Dallas on March 24. The solid red lines show when the state-wide stay-at-home order was in place between April 2 and April 30. The dashed red line shows when Governor Abbot ordered bars to close again effective June 26. Panel A on the left shows the data for the north central (including Dallas) region, which makes up 32 percent of electricity demand in Texas. Electricity demand declines in early March and remains about 8 percent below normal from March to June before gradually increasing to normal by August. Panel B on the right shows the data for the far west (including Midland) region, which makes up 7 percent of electricity demand in Texas. Electricity demand drops starting in early April and falls to about 25 percent below normal in early June. It begins to increase in late June and reaches about 17 percent below normal by early August.

Note: Dots represent weekly deviation from demand from the same week of the year in previous years conditional on outdoor temperature and fixed effects. Results are normalized based on the average coefficient values in February 2020 for ease of interpretation. The vertical capped bars indicate the 95 percent confidence interval. The dashed gray line in panel A shows when a local stay-at-home order went into effect in Dallas on March 24. The solid red lines show when the state-wide stay-at-home order was in place between April 2 and April 30. The dashed red line shows when Governor Abbot ordered bars to close again effective on June 26. Phased reopening began May 1 and continued through June.

Source: Electric Reliability Council of Texas.

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Figure 3. Effect of Hurricane Harvey on Electricity Demand in Texas (2017)

Description: Four panels with line/dot plots. The vertical axis reports the percent change in electricity demand relative to the average value in July 2017 and the horizontal axis reports the date of consumption from August 2017 to September 2017, at a daily frequency. There is a dot for each week corresponding to the percent change in electricity demand relative to the average value in July 2017. The vertical capped bars around the dots indicate the 95 percent confidence interval. The solid red lines indicate when Hurricane Harvey first made landfall in Texas on August 25, 2017 and dissipated further inland on August 31, 2017. Panel A in the top left shows Texas-wide electricity demand, which dropped by about 15 percent after Hurricane Harvey hit. Panel B in the top right shows large C&I; electricity consumption drops sharply by about 20 percent, but it takes several weeks before consumption reaches its pre-hurricane levels. Panel C in the bottom left shows the coast region (including Houston), which falls as much 25 percent after Hurricane Harvey hits but takes until mid-September 2017 to recover. Panel D in the bottom right shows the west region (including Abilene), which being further inland, is less affected by Hurricane Harvey and falls only about 10 percent before recovering in early September 2017.

Note: Dots represent daily deviation from demand from the same day of the year in previous years conditional on outdoor temperature and fixed effects. Results are normalized based on the average coefficient values in July 2017 for ease of interpretation. The vertical capped bars indicate the 95 percent confidence interval. The solid red lines indicate when Hurricane Harvey first made landfall in Texas on August 25 and dissipated further inland on August 31.

Source: Electric Reliability Council of Texas.

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Last Update: October 21, 2020