Accessible Version
Underlying Inflation: Its Measurement and Significance, Accessible Data
Figure 1. Actual and Trend Inflation
Percent
| Date | Total | Core | Estimated long-run trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1960:1 | 1.69 | 2.09 | N/A |
| 1960:2 | 1.94 | 2.11 | N/A |
| 1960:3 | 1.76 | 1.90 | N/A |
| 1960:4 | 1.57 | 1.57 | N/A |
| 1961:1 | 1.55 | 1.30 | N/A |
| 1961:2 | 0.86 | 1.04 | N/A |
| 1961:3 | 0.76 | 1.00 | N/A |
| 1961:4 | 0.43 | 0.93 | N/A |
| 1962:1 | 0.63 | 1.06 | N/A |
| 1962:2 | 1.04 | 1.15 | N/A |
| 1962:3 | 1.05 | 1.21 | N/A |
| 1962:4 | 1.34 | 1.25 | N/A |
| 1963:1 | 1.22 | 1.23 | N/A |
| 1963:2 | 1.09 | 1.34 | N/A |
| 1963:3 | 1.24 | 1.28 | N/A |
| 1963:4 | 1.25 | 1.52 | N/A |
| 1964:1 | 1.41 | 1.57 | N/A |
| 1964:2 | 1.41 | 1.40 | N/A |
| 1964:3 | 1.20 | 1.22 | N/A |
| 1964:4 | 1.15 | 0.96 | N/A |
| 1965:1 | 1.01 | 0.95 | 2.68 |
| 1965:2 | 1.31 | 0.98 | 2.79 |
| 1965:3 | 1.37 | 1.03 | 2.89 |
| 1965:4 | 1.28 | 1.05 | 2.97 |
| 1966:1 | 1.70 | 1.11 | 3.05 |
| 1966:2 | 2.04 | 1.63 | 3.15 |
| 1966:3 | 2.45 | 2.18 | 3.25 |
| 1966:4 | 2.99 | 2.81 | 3.34 |
| 1967:1 | 2.63 | 3.06 | 3.40 |
| 1967:2 | 2.26 | 2.91 | 3.55 |
| 1967:3 | 2.42 | 2.98 | 3.71 |
| 1967:4 | 2.51 | 3.15 | 3.83 |
| 1968:1 | 3.24 | 3.65 | 3.95 |
| 1968:2 | 3.77 | 4.12 | 3.93 |
| 1968:3 | 3.85 | 4.30 | 3.92 |
| 1968:4 | 4.06 | 4.41 | 3.96 |
| 1969:1 | 3.86 | 4.23 | 3.91 |
| 1969:2 | 4.10 | 4.24 | 3.96 |
| 1969:3 | 4.33 | 4.31 | 3.93 |
| 1969:4 | 4.40 | 4.35 | 3.90 |
| 1970:1 | 4.70 | 4.47 | 3.84 |
| 1970:2 | 4.58 | 4.46 | 3.85 |
| 1970:3 | 4.37 | 4.48 | 3.90 |
| 1970:4 | 4.54 | 4.75 | 3.97 |
| 1971:1 | 4.25 | 4.88 | 4.02 |
| 1971:2 | 4.23 | 4.81 | 4.01 |
| 1971:3 | 4.18 | 4.56 | 3.96 |
| 1971:4 | 3.42 | 3.61 | 4.04 |
| 1972:1 | 3.54 | 3.28 | 4.23 |
| 1972:2 | 3.00 | 2.85 | 4.28 |
| 1972:3 | 2.91 | 2.68 | 4.44 |
| 1972:4 | 3.17 | 2.80 | 4.69 |
| 1973:1 | 3.48 | 2.71 | 4.95 |
| 1973:2 | 4.79 | 3.30 | 5.17 |
| 1973:3 | 5.66 | 3.76 | 5.32 |
| 1973:4 | 6.86 | 4.43 | 5.49 |
| 1974:1 | 8.46 | 5.14 | 5.67 |
| 1974:2 | 9.37 | 6.25 | 5.74 |
| 1974:3 | 10.34 | 7.95 | 5.58 |
| 1974:4 | 10.89 | 9.14 | 5.52 |
| 1975:1 | 9.87 | 9.58 | 5.61 |
| 1975:2 | 8.31 | 8.80 | 5.71 |
| 1975:3 | 7.52 | 7.45 | 6.13 |
| 1975:4 | 6.65 | 6.63 | 6.03 |
| 1976:1 | 5.90 | 6.27 | 5.92 |
| 1976:2 | 5.62 | 6.08 | 5.59 |
| 1976:3 | 5.20 | 6.08 | 5.98 |
| 1976:4 | 5.06 | 5.96 | 6.38 |
| 1977:1 | 5.73 | 6.02 | 6.44 |
| 1977:2 | 6.46 | 6.11 | 6.31 |
| 1977:3 | 6.36 | 6.12 | 6.58 |
| 1977:4 | 6.17 | 5.98 | 6.72 |
| 1978:1 | 5.89 | 5.73 | 7.01 |
| 1978:2 | 6.22 | 5.89 | 7.23 |
| 1978:3 | 6.61 | 6.11 | 7.38 |
| 1978:4 | 7.12 | 6.50 | 7.54 |
| 1979:1 | 7.76 | 6.79 | 7.56 |
| 1979:2 | 8.21 | 6.93 | 7.71 |
| 1979:3 | 8.96 | 7.02 | 7.75 |
| 1979:4 | 9.61 | 7.45 | 7.85 |
| 1980:1 | 10.57 | 8.31 | 7.70 |
| 1980:2 | 10.60 | 8.79 | 7.22 |
| 1980:3 | 10.48 | 9.28 | 6.88 |
| 1980:4 | 10.29 | 9.33 | 6.76 |
| 1981:1 | 9.77 | 8.97 | 6.16 |
| 1981:2 | 9.05 | 8.73 | 5.43 |
| 1981:3 | 8.55 | 8.62 | 5.27 |
| 1981:4 | 7.87 | 8.32 | 4.37 |
| 1982:1 | 6.59 | 7.67 | 4.15 |
| 1982:2 | 5.89 | 7.19 | 4.10 |
| 1982:3 | 5.57 | 6.59 | 4.18 |
| 1982:4 | 5.01 | 6.04 | 4.03 |
| 1983:1 | 4.42 | 5.74 | 4.05 |
| 1983:2 | 4.56 | 5.32 | 4.04 |
| 1983:3 | 3.98 | 4.85 | 4.18 |
| 1983:4 | 3.74 | 4.50 | 4.26 |
| 1984:1 | 4.19 | 4.39 | 4.18 |
| 1984:2 | 3.81 | 4.29 | 4.01 |
| 1984:3 | 3.57 | 4.09 | 3.98 |
| 1984:4 | 3.52 | 3.99 | 4.00 |
| 1985:1 | 3.35 | 4.03 | 4.00 |
| 1985:2 | 3.46 | 4.04 | 3.80 |
| 1985:3 | 3.34 | 3.98 | 3.71 |
| 1985:4 | 3.44 | 4.00 | 3.75 |
| 1986:1 | 2.97 | 3.74 | 3.73 |
| 1986:2 | 2.05 | 3.65 | 3.80 |
| 1986:3 | 2.08 | 3.66 | 3.95 |
| 1986:4 | 1.88 | 3.63 | 4.03 |
| 1987:1 | 2.65 | 3.77 | 4.05 |
| 1987:2 | 3.65 | 3.87 | 3.99 |
| 1987:3 | 3.95 | 3.90 | 4.00 |
| 1987:4 | 4.14 | 4.02 | 4.00 |
| 1988:1 | 3.64 | 3.98 | 4.04 |
| 1988:2 | 3.72 | 4.15 | 4.10 |
| 1988:3 | 3.90 | 4.28 | 4.06 |
| 1988:4 | 4.07 | 4.40 | 4.07 |
| 1989:1 | 4.48 | 4.57 | 3.95 |
| 1989:2 | 4.86 | 4.37 | 3.80 |
| 1989:3 | 4.44 | 4.27 | 3.71 |
| 1989:4 | 4.31 | 4.18 | 3.71 |
| 1990:1 | 4.63 | 4.23 | 3.67 |
| 1990:2 | 4.17 | 4.48 | 3.46 |
| 1990:3 | 4.86 | 4.71 | 3.14 |
| 1990:4 | 5.38 | 4.56 | 2.97 |
| 1991:1 | 4.55 | 4.48 | 2.94 |
| 1991:2 | 4.21 | 4.15 | 2.92 |
| 1991:3 | 3.50 | 3.96 | 2.87 |
| 1991:4 | 2.87 | 3.93 | 2.74 |
| 1992:1 | 2.84 | 3.61 | 2.65 |
| 1992:2 | 2.87 | 3.42 | 2.61 |
| 1992:3 | 2.80 | 3.05 | 2.59 |
| 1992:4 | 2.74 | 2.95 | 2.58 |
| 1993:1 | 2.61 | 2.75 | 2.51 |
| 1993:2 | 2.51 | 2.68 | 2.43 |
| 1993:3 | 2.26 | 2.61 | 2.38 |
| 1993:4 | 2.07 | 2.30 | 2.32 |
| 1994:1 | 1.84 | 2.08 | 2.29 |
| 1994:2 | 1.81 | 2.10 | 2.27 |
| 1994:3 | 2.10 | 2.06 | 2.21 |
| 1994:4 | 1.93 | 1.99 | 2.17 |
| 1995:1 | 2.17 | 2.19 | 2.11 |
| 1995:2 | 2.17 | 2.07 | 2.06 |
| 1995:3 | 1.88 | 2.04 | 2.02 |
| 1995:4 | 1.90 | 2.10 | 2.00 |
| 1996:1 | 1.83 | 1.77 | 1.96 |
| 1996:2 | 1.93 | 1.64 | 1.94 |
| 1996:3 | 1.86 | 1.52 | 1.92 |
| 1996:4 | 2.05 | 1.51 | 1.89 |
| 1997:1 | 1.98 | 1.57 | 1.87 |
| 1997:2 | 1.52 | 1.63 | 1.85 |
| 1997:3 | 1.42 | 1.47 | 1.81 |
| 1997:4 | 1.05 | 1.23 | 1.79 |
| 1998:1 | 0.61 | 1.17 | 1.77 |
| 1998:2 | 0.54 | 0.94 | 1.75 |
| 1998:3 | 0.62 | 1.11 | 1.74 |
| 1998:4 | 0.66 | 1.23 | 1.73 |
| 1999:1 | 0.91 | 1.22 | 1.72 |
| 1999:2 | 1.38 | 1.31 | 1.71 |
| 1999:3 | 1.52 | 1.17 | 1.71 |
| 1999:4 | 1.80 | 1.22 | 1.70 |
| 2000:1 | 2.41 | 1.45 | 1.69 |
| 2000:2 | 2.21 | 1.34 | 1.66 |
| 2000:3 | 2.41 | 1.58 | 1.66 |
| 2000:4 | 2.42 | 1.66 | 1.64 |
| 2001:1 | 2.21 | 1.66 | 1.63 |
| 2001:2 | 2.29 | 1.80 | 1.62 |
| 2001:3 | 1.81 | 1.76 | 1.62 |
| 2001:4 | 1.16 | 1.68 | 1.61 |
| 2002:1 | 0.66 | 1.41 | 1.62 |
| 2002:2 | 0.85 | 1.47 | 1.64 |
| 2002:3 | 1.13 | 1.49 | 1.65 |
| 2002:4 | 1.71 | 1.47 | 1.66 |
| 2003:1 | 2.36 | 1.49 | 1.66 |
| 2003:2 | 1.68 | 1.34 | 1.67 |
| 2003:3 | 1.86 | 1.28 | 1.71 |
| 2003:4 | 1.76 | 1.24 | 1.73 |
| 2004:1 | 1.77 | 1.52 | 1.75 |
| 2004:2 | 2.44 | 1.77 | 1.78 |
| 2004:3 | 2.31 | 1.72 | 1.81 |
| 2004:4 | 2.76 | 1.88 | 1.83 |
| 2005:1 | 2.45 | 1.95 | 1.86 |
| 2005:2 | 2.43 | 1.88 | 1.89 |
| 2005:3 | 3.05 | 1.88 | 1.90 |
| 2005:4 | 2.99 | 2.03 | 1.91 |
| 2006:1 | 2.98 | 1.95 | 1.91 |
| 2006:2 | 3.16 | 2.18 | 1.89 |
| 2006:3 | 2.79 | 2.39 | 1.87 |
| 2006:4 | 1.75 | 2.17 | 1.84 |
| 2007:1 | 2.18 | 2.28 | 1.82 |
| 2007:2 | 2.25 | 1.96 | 1.77 |
| 2007:3 | 1.98 | 1.80 | 1.75 |
| 2007:4 | 3.36 | 2.14 | 1.74 |
| 2008:1 | 3.38 | 2.12 | 1.72 |
| 2008:2 | 3.63 | 2.25 | 1.70 |
| 2008:3 | 4.37 | 2.47 | 1.70 |
| 2008:4 | 1.85 | 2.13 | 1.69 |
| 2009:1 | 0.54 | 1.98 | 1.70 |
| 2009:2 | -0.05 | 2.01 | 1.71 |
| 2009:3 | -0.62 | 1.67 | 1.72 |
| 2009:4 | 1.44 | 1.71 | 1.75 |
| 2010:1 | 2.06 | 1.41 | 1.77 |
| 2010:2 | 1.62 | 1.08 | 1.79 |
| 2010:3 | 1.17 | 0.98 | 1.81 |
| 2010:4 | 1.12 | 0.73 | 1.83 |
| 2011:1 | 1.72 | 0.95 | 1.86 |
| 2011:2 | 2.65 | 1.30 | 1.89 |
| 2011:3 | 2.92 | 1.62 | 1.91 |
| 2011:4 | 2.76 | 1.89 | 1.92 |
| 2012:1 | 2.51 | 2.04 | 1.93 |
| 2012:2 | 1.70 | 1.89 | 1.92 |
| 2012:3 | 1.50 | 1.69 | 1.92 |
| 2012:4 | 1.53 | 1.52 | 1.91 |
| 2013:1 | 1.26 | 1.33 | 1.91 |
| 2013:2 | 0.92 | 1.04 | 1.90 |
| 2013:3 | 1.02 | 1.11 | 1.89 |
| 2013:4 | 0.82 | 1.12 | 1.89 |
| 2014:1 | 0.89 | 0.98 | 1.89 |
| 2014:2 | 1.39 | 1.21 | 1.89 |
| 2014:3 | 1.22 | 1.18 | 1.89 |
| 2014:4 | 0.71 | 1.06 | 1.90 |
| 2015:1 | -0.24 | 0.99 | 1.90 |
| 2015:2 | -0.15 | 1.02 | 1.91 |
| 2015:3 | -0.12 | 1.00 | 1.90 |
| 2015:4 | 0.01 | 1.06 | 1.87 |
| 2016:1 | 0.49 | 1.26 | 1.86 |
| 2016:2 | 0.55 | 1.27 | 1.82 |
| 2016:3 | 0.64 | 1.38 | 1.80 |
| 2016:4 | 1.17 | 1.42 | 1.79 |
| 2017:1 | 1.76 | 1.47 | 1.79 |
| 2017:2 | 1.28 | 1.21 | 1.75 |
| 2017:3 | 1.28 | 1.07 | 1.76 |
| 2017:4 | 1.47 | 1.22 | 1.77 |
| 2018:1 | 1.52 | 1.32 | 1.76 |
| 2018:2 | 2.01 | 1.69 | 1.77 |
| 2018:3 | 2.00 | 1.73 | 1.75 |
| 2018:4 | 1.69 | 1.69 | 1.74 |
| 2019:1 | 1.33 | 1.61 | 1.73 |
| 2019:2 | 1.32 | 1.46 | 1.73 |
| 2019:3 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2019:4 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Note: Actual inflation computed as four-quarter log difference of market-based PCE price indexes. Estimated trend is from TVP-VAR model with labor costs.
Figure 2. Trend Inflation and Long-Term Inflation Expectations
Percent
| Date | Households | Professional forecasters | Estimated long-term trends |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1980:1 | 9.58 | N/A | 7.70 |
| 1980:2 | 9.20 | N/A | 7.22 |
| 1980:3 | 8.96 | N/A | 6.88 |
| 1980:4 | 8.35 | N/A | 6.76 |
| 1981:1 | 6.67 | N/A | 6.16 |
| 1981:2 | 5.85 | N/A | 5.43 |
| 1981:3 | 6.33 | N/A | 5.27 |
| 1981:4 | 6.30 | N/A | 4.37 |
| 1982:1 | 5.67 | N/A | 4.15 |
| 1982:2 | 5.15 | N/A | 4.10 |
| 1982:3 | 5.27 | N/A | 4.18 |
| 1982:4 | 5.05 | N/A | 4.03 |
| 1983:1 | 4.90 | 4.92 | 4.05 |
| 1983:2 | 4.95 | 4.89 | 4.04 |
| 1983:3 | 4.97 | 4.86 | 4.18 |
| 1983:4 | 4.95 | 4.82 | 4.26 |
| 1984:1 | 4.97 | 5.22 | 4.18 |
| 1984:2 | 5.05 | 5.09 | 4.01 |
| 1984:3 | 4.97 | 4.96 | 3.98 |
| 1984:4 | 4.80 | 4.82 | 4.00 |
| 1985:1 | 4.73 | 3.97 | 4.00 |
| 1985:2 | 4.65 | 4.04 | 3.80 |
| 1985:3 | 4.67 | 4.11 | 3.71 |
| 1985:4 | 4.40 | 4.17 | 3.75 |
| 1986:1 | 3.95 | 3.62 | 3.73 |
| 1986:2 | 3.87 | 3.62 | 3.80 |
| 1986:3 | 3.97 | 3.62 | 3.95 |
| 1986:4 | 3.87 | 3.62 | 4.03 |
| 1987:1 | 3.87 | 3.79 | 4.05 |
| 1987:2 | 4.17 | 3.79 | 3.99 |
| 1987:3 | 3.70 | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| 1987:4 | 3.87 | 3.79 | 4.00 |
| 1988:1 | 4.09 | 3.49 | 4.04 |
| 1988:2 | 4.08 | 3.53 | 4.10 |
| 1988:3 | 4.07 | 3.46 | 4.06 |
| 1988:4 | 4.06 | 3.45 | 4.07 |
| 1989:1 | 4.05 | 3.33 | 3.95 |
| 1989:2 | 4.04 | 3.26 | 3.80 |
| 1989:3 | 4.03 | 3.38 | 3.71 |
| 1989:4 | 4.02 | 3.43 | 3.71 |
| 1990:1 | 4.01 | 3.18 | 3.67 |
| 1990:2 | 4.30 | 3.44 | 3.46 |
| 1990:3 | 4.50 | 3.34 | 3.14 |
| 1990:4 | 4.57 | 3.20 | 2.97 |
| 1991:1 | 4.60 | 3.06 | 2.94 |
| 1991:2 | 4.37 | 3.00 | 2.92 |
| 1991:3 | 4.03 | 2.86 | 2.87 |
| 1991:4 | 3.77 | 2.94 | 2.74 |
| 1992:1 | 3.53 | 2.71 | 2.65 |
| 1992:2 | 3.77 | 2.97 | 2.61 |
| 1992:3 | 3.80 | 2.83 | 2.59 |
| 1992:4 | 3.60 | 2.71 | 2.58 |
| 1993:1 | 3.70 | 2.50 | 2.51 |
| 1993:2 | 3.60 | 2.81 | 2.43 |
| 1993:3 | 3.37 | 2.72 | 2.38 |
| 1993:4 | 3.50 | 2.61 | 2.32 |
| 1994:1 | 3.30 | 2.63 | 2.29 |
| 1994:2 | 3.33 | 2.66 | 2.27 |
| 1994:3 | 3.30 | 2.52 | 2.21 |
| 1994:4 | 3.23 | 2.55 | 2.17 |
| 1995:1 | 3.23 | 2.34 | 2.11 |
| 1995:2 | 3.27 | 2.39 | 2.06 |
| 1995:3 | 3.13 | 2.39 | 2.02 |
| 1995:4 | 3.13 | 2.27 | 2.00 |
| 1996:1 | 3.23 | 2.37 | 1.96 |
| 1996:2 | 3.13 | 2.39 | 1.94 |
| 1996:3 | 3.23 | 2.35 | 1.92 |
| 1996:4 | 3.00 | 2.41 | 1.89 |
| 1997:1 | 3.10 | 2.41 | 1.87 |
| 1997:2 | 3.00 | 2.27 | 1.85 |
| 1997:3 | 3.00 | 2.48 | 1.81 |
| 1997:4 | 3.07 | 2.10 | 1.79 |
| 1998:1 | 2.87 | 2.16 | 1.77 |
| 1998:2 | 2.80 | 1.99 | 1.75 |
| 1998:3 | 2.77 | 1.93 | 1.74 |
| 1998:4 | 2.83 | 1.94 | 1.73 |
| 1999:1 | 2.83 | 1.73 | 1.72 |
| 1999:2 | 2.83 | 2.01 | 1.71 |
| 1999:3 | 2.87 | 2.12 | 1.71 |
| 1999:4 | 2.87 | 2.17 | 1.70 |
| 2000:1 | 3.00 | 2.19 | 1.69 |
| 2000:2 | 2.83 | 2.17 | 1.66 |
| 2000:3 | 2.90 | 2.15 | 1.66 |
| 2000:4 | 2.97 | 2.13 | 1.64 |
| 2001:1 | 2.97 | 2.12 | 1.63 |
| 2001:2 | 3.03 | 2.12 | 1.62 |
| 2001:3 | 2.93 | 2.12 | 1.62 |
| 2001:4 | 2.83 | 2.17 | 1.61 |
| 2002:1 | 2.77 | 2.12 | 1.62 |
| 2002:2 | 2.87 | 2.12 | 1.64 |
| 2002:3 | 2.73 | 2.12 | 1.65 |
| 2002:4 | 2.80 | 2.07 | 1.66 |
| 2003:1 | 2.73 | 2.12 | 1.66 |
| 2003:2 | 2.73 | 2.12 | 1.67 |
| 2003:3 | 2.70 | 2.12 | 1.71 |
| 2003:4 | 2.77 | 2.12 | 1.73 |
| 2004:1 | 2.87 | 2.12 | 1.75 |
| 2004:2 | 2.80 | 2.12 | 1.78 |
| 2004:3 | 2.77 | 2.12 | 1.81 |
| 2004:4 | 2.77 | 2.12 | 1.83 |
| 2005:1 | 2.80 | 2.07 | 1.86 |
| 2005:2 | 2.90 | 2.12 | 1.89 |
| 2005:3 | 2.93 | 2.12 | 1.90 |
| 2005:4 | 3.10 | 2.12 | 1.91 |
| 2006:1 | 2.90 | 2.12 | 1.91 |
| 2006:2 | 3.07 | 2.12 | 1.89 |
| 2006:3 | 3.03 | 2.12 | 1.87 |
| 2006:4 | 3.03 | 2.12 | 1.84 |
| 2007:1 | 2.93 | 2.00 | 1.82 |
| 2007:2 | 3.03 | 2.00 | 1.77 |
| 2007:3 | 2.97 | 2.10 | 1.75 |
| 2007:4 | 2.93 | 2.10 | 1.74 |
| 2008:1 | 2.97 | 2.20 | 1.72 |
| 2008:2 | 3.33 | 2.20 | 1.70 |
| 2008:3 | 3.13 | 2.20 | 1.70 |
| 2008:4 | 2.80 | 2.20 | 1.69 |
| 2009:1 | 2.87 | 2.20 | 1.70 |
| 2009:2 | 2.90 | 2.27 | 1.71 |
| 2009:3 | 2.87 | 2.15 | 1.72 |
| 2009:4 | 2.87 | 2.10 | 1.75 |
| 2010:1 | 2.77 | 2.10 | 1.77 |
| 2010:2 | 2.80 | 2.15 | 1.79 |
| 2010:3 | 2.80 | 2.10 | 1.81 |
| 2010:4 | 2.80 | 2.00 | 1.83 |
| 2011:1 | 3.00 | 2.10 | 1.86 |
| 2011:2 | 2.93 | 2.27 | 1.89 |
| 2011:3 | 2.87 | 2.25 | 1.91 |
| 2011:4 | 2.70 | 2.15 | 1.92 |
| 2012:1 | 2.87 | 2.15 | 1.93 |
| 2012:2 | 2.80 | 2.20 | 1.92 |
| 2012:3 | 2.83 | 2.20 | 1.92 |
| 2012:4 | 2.80 | 2.10 | 1.91 |
| 2013:1 | 2.90 | 2.00 | 1.91 |
| 2013:2 | 2.90 | 2.00 | 1.90 |
| 2013:3 | 2.90 | 2.00 | 1.89 |
| 2013:4 | 2.80 | 2.00 | 1.89 |
| 2014:1 | 2.90 | 2.00 | 1.89 |
| 2014:2 | 2.87 | 2.00 | 1.89 |
| 2014:3 | 2.80 | 2.00 | 1.89 |
| 2014:4 | 2.73 | 2.00 | 1.90 |
| 2015:1 | 2.77 | 2.00 | 1.90 |
| 2015:2 | 2.67 | 1.98 | 1.91 |
| 2015:3 | 2.73 | 2.00 | 1.90 |
| 2015:4 | 2.57 | 1.90 | 1.87 |
| 2016:1 | 2.63 | 1.97 | 1.86 |
| 2016:2 | 2.53 | 2.00 | 1.82 |
| 2016:3 | 2.57 | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| 2016:4 | 2.43 | 2.00 | 1.79 |
| 2017:1 | 2.50 | 2.10 | 1.79 |
| 2017:2 | 2.43 | 2.09 | 1.75 |
| 2017:3 | 2.53 | 2.00 | 1.76 |
| 2017:4 | 2.43 | 2.00 | 1.77 |
| 2018:1 | 2.50 | 2.00 | 1.76 |
| 2018:2 | 2.53 | 2.00 | 1.77 |
| 2018:3 | 2.50 | 2.00 | 1.75 |
| 2018:4 | 2.50 | 2.00 | 1.74 |
| 2019:1 | 2.47 | 2.00 | 1.73 |
| 2019:2 | 2.40 | N/A | 1.73 |
Note: Household expectations are median long-term expectations from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, with linear interpolation in selected periods prior to 1990:Q2. Expectations for professional forecasters are derived from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters. Estimated trend is from TVP-VAR model with labor costs.
Last Update:
September 18, 2020