Corporate Buybacks and Capital Investment: An International Perspective, Accessible Data

Figure 1: United States - Investment and Buybacks as Ratio of GDP

Percent of GDP

Date U.S. Net Buybacks U.S. Dividen.d.s U.S. Investment
1960:Q1 -0.26 n.d. 7.44
1960:Q2 -0.28 n.d. 7.55
1960:Q3 -0.29 n.d. 7.38
1960:Q4 -0.18 1.69 7.39
1961:Q1 -0.49 n.d. 7.22
1961:Q2 -0.84 n.d. 7.21
1961:Q3 -0.26 n.d. 7.13
1961:Q4 0.07 1.72 7.17
1962:Q1 -0.03 n.d. 7.12
1962:Q2 -0.1 n.d. 7.24
1962:Q3 -0.05 n.d. 7.25
1962:Q4 -0.07 1.74 7.18
1963:Q1 0 n.d. 7.11
1963:Q2 0 n.d. 7.23
1963:Q3 -0.06 n.d. 7.3
1963:Q4 0.26 1.74 7.41
1964:Q1 -0.37 n.d. 7.39
1964:Q2 -0.46 n.d. 7.49
1964:Q3 -0.1 n.d. 7.61
1964:Q4 0.26 1.85 7.75
1965:Q1 0.03 n.d. 8.01
1965:Q2 -0.18 n.d. 8.21
1965:Q3 -0.01 n.d. 8.36
1965:Q4 0.17 1.99 8.55
1966:Q1 0.06 n.d. 8.7
1966:Q2 -0.74 n.d. 8.87
1966:Q3 -0.13 n.d. 8.89
1966:Q4 0.18 1.84 8.83
1967:Q1 -0.12 n.d. 8.61
1967:Q2 -0.22 n.d. 8.59
1967:Q3 -0.33 n.d. 8.48
1967:Q4 -0.42 1.81 8.58
1968:Q1 -0.16 n.d. 8.64
1968:Q2 -0.22 n.d. 8.38
1968:Q3 0.2 n.d. 8.42
1968:Q4 0.24 1.77 8.61
1969:Q1 -0.13 n.d. 8.67
1969:Q2 -0.17 n.d. 8.7
1969:Q3 -0.39 n.d. 8.81
1969:Q4 -0.63 1.6 8.79
1970:Q1 -0.5 n.d. 8.72
1970:Q2 -0.45 n.d. 8.65
1970:Q3 -0.4 n.d. 8.57
1970:Q4 -0.76 1.41 8.33
1971:Q1 -0.69 n.d. 8.12
1971:Q2 -1.15 n.d. 8.14
1971:Q3 -1.3 n.d. 8.1
1971:Q4 -0.77 1.29 8.24
1972:Q1 -0.73 n.d. 8.36
1972:Q2 -1.08 n.d. 8.34
1972:Q3 -0.8 n.d. 8.36
1972:Q4 -0.8 1.19 8.52
1973:Q1 -0.51 n.d. 8.58
1973:Q2 -0.61 n.d. 8.76
1973:Q3 -0.35 n.d. 8.92
1973:Q4 -0.72 0.9 8.88
1974:Q1 -0.41 n.d. 9.04
1974:Q2 -0.33 n.d. 9.11
1974:Q3 0 n.d. 9.22
1974:Q4 -0.32 0.91 9.11
1975:Q1 -0.48 n.d. 8.76
1975:Q2 -0.78 n.d. 8.54
1975:Q3 -0.4 n.d. 8.43
1975:Q4 -0.69 0.99 8.4
1976:Q1 -0.69 n.d. 8.42
1976:Q2 -0.75 n.d. 8.52
1976:Q3 -0.39 n.d. 8.7
1976:Q4 -0.42 1.1 8.8
1977:Q1 0.03 n.d. 9.06
1977:Q2 -0.08 n.d. 9.17
1977:Q3 -0.21 n.d. 9.25
1977:Q4 -0.25 1.11 9.49
1978:Q1 0.29 n.d. 9.52
1978:Q2 -0.12 n.d. 9.83
1978:Q3 -0.03 n.d. 10.04
1978:Q4 -0.1 1.06 10.16
1979:Q1 0.26 n.d. 10.36
1979:Q2 0.48 n.d. 10.3
1979:Q3 0.28 n.d. 10.53
1979:Q4 0.17 0.75 10.53
1980:Q1 -0.2 n.d. 10.67
1980:Q2 -0.12 n.d. 10.42
1980:Q3 -0.35 n.d. 10.47
1980:Q4 -0.75 0.93 10.38
1981:Q1 -0.1 n.d. 10.33
1981:Q2 0.17 n.d. 10.61
1981:Q3 0.82 n.d. 10.7
1981:Q4 0.76 1.21 11.08
1982:Q1 0.23 n.d. 11.02
1982:Q2 -0.08 n.d. 10.61
1982:Q3 0.22 n.d. 10.26
1982:Q4 -0.58 1.17 9.99
1983:Q1 -0.66 n.d. 9.59
1983:Q2 -1.03 n.d. 9.4
1983:Q3 -0.23 n.d. 9.5
1983:Q4 -0.31 1.16 9.79
1984:Q1 1.61 n.d. 9.8
1984:Q2 2.62 n.d. 10.01
1984:Q3 1.75 n.d. 10.13
1984:Q4 1.84 1.11 10.2
1985:Q1 2.05 n.d. 10.08
1985:Q2 1.63 n.d. 10.06
1985:Q3 1.77 n.d. 9.74
1985:Q4 2.31 1.1 9.81
1986:Q1 1.34 n.d. 9.59
1986:Q2 1.92 n.d. 9.34
1986:Q3 1.84 n.d. 9.12
1986:Q4 2.3 1.16 9.1
1987:Q1 0.92 n.d. 8.69
1987:Q2 1.59 n.d. 8.65
1987:Q3 1.43 n.d. 8.72
1987:Q4 2.23 0.98 8.55
1988:Q1 1.98 n.d. 8.58
1988:Q2 2.68 n.d. 8.62
1988:Q3 1.57 n.d. 8.55
1988:Q4 3.59 1.13 8.56
1989:Q1 3.12 n.d. 8.55
1989:Q2 1.75 n.d. 8.57
1989:Q3 2.56 n.d. 8.77
1989:Q4 1.38 1.29 8.74
1990:Q1 1.17 n.d. 8.84
1990:Q2 0.8 n.d. 8.73
1990:Q3 1.23 n.d. 8.85
1990:Q4 1.01 1.2 8.82
1991:Q1 0.1 n.d. 8.7
1991:Q2 -0.2 n.d. 8.57
1991:Q3 -0.31 n.d. 8.41
1991:Q4 -0.76 1.26 8.33
1992:Q1 -0.72 n.d. 8.2
1992:Q2 -0.55 n.d. 8.34
1992:Q3 -0.18 n.d. 8.36
1992:Q4 -0.21 1.43 8.43
1993:Q1 -0.12 n.d. 8.43
1993:Q2 -0.34 n.d. 8.49
1993:Q3 -0.47 n.d. 8.45
1993:Q4 -0.31 1.45 8.61
1994:Q1 0.13 n.d. 8.62
1994:Q2 0.03 n.d. 8.63
1994:Q3 0.68 n.d. 8.73
1994:Q4 1.58 1.7 8.98
1995:Q1 0.58 n.d. 9.34
1995:Q2 0.72 n.d. 9.43
1995:Q3 0.99 n.d. 9.42
1995:Q4 0.75 1.65 9.47
1996:Q1 0.77 n.d. 9.54
1996:Q2 -0.17 n.d. 9.55
1996:Q3 1.38 n.d. 9.73
1996:Q4 0.36 1.78 9.81
1997:Q1 0.66 n.d. 9.91
1997:Q2 0.69 n.d. 9.92
1997:Q3 1.05 n.d. 10.15
1997:Q4 1.18 1.91 10
1998:Q1 0.98 n.d. 10.04
1998:Q2 0.79 n.d. 10.09
1998:Q3 2.84 n.d. 10.06
1998:Q4 4.77 2.07 10.08
1999:Q1 0.29 n.d. 10.13
1999:Q2 3.21 n.d. 10.29
1999:Q3 1.08 n.d. 10.38
1999:Q4 0.02 1.59 10.24
2000:Q1 -1.08 n.d. 10.53
2000:Q2 1.97 n.d. 10.66
2000:Q3 0.41 n.d. 10.74
2000:Q4 3.2 1.44 10.68
2001:Q1 0.18 n.d. 10.36
2001:Q2 0.56 n.d. 10.02
2001:Q3 1.03 n.d. 9.91
2001:Q4 0.04 1.25 9.53
2002:Q1 0.02 n.d. 8.9
2002:Q2 -0.22 n.d. 8.62
2002:Q3 1.04 n.d. 8.46
2002:Q4 0.03 1.44 8.33
2003:Q1 0.51 n.d. 8.27
2003:Q2 0.18 n.d. 8.39
2003:Q3 0.1 n.d. 8.35
2003:Q4 0.1 1.54 8.35
2004:Q1 0.13 n.d. 8.06
2004:Q2 0.72 n.d. 8.16
2004:Q3 1.31 n.d. 8.29
2004:Q4 0.86 1.98 8.39
2005:Q1 1.48 n.d. 8.57
2005:Q2 1.96 n.d. 8.65
2005:Q3 3.04 n.d. 8.69
2005:Q4 2.66 1.43 8.71
2006:Q1 3.49 n.d. 8.97
2006:Q2 3.59 n.d. 9.06
2006:Q3 3.19 n.d. 9.15
2006:Q4 4.07 2.32 9.19
2007:Q1 3.22 n.d. 9.18
2007:Q2 4.58 n.d. 9.3
2007:Q3 4.94 n.d. 9.34
2007:Q4 6.72 2.13 9.43
2008:Q1 2.54 n.d. 9.53
2008:Q2 1.24 n.d. 9.43
2008:Q3 2.12 n.d. 9.25
2008:Q4 2.7 1.97 9.08
2009:Q1 0.96 n.d. 8.39
2009:Q2 -0.95 n.d. 7.97
2009:Q3 -0.47 n.d. 7.76
2009:Q4 1.85 1.1 7.57
2010:Q1 1.14 n.d. 7.68
2010:Q2 1.28 n.d. 7.86
2010:Q3 2.25 n.d. 7.95
2010:Q4 2.01 1.06 8.07
2011:Q1 1.93 n.d. 8.13
2011:Q2 3.08 n.d. 8.23
2011:Q3 4 n.d. 8.54
2011:Q4 2.69 1.46 8.69
2012:Q1 1.48 n.d. 8.82
2012:Q2 2.66 n.d. 8.96
2012:Q3 2.15 n.d. 8.91
2012:Q4 2.24 2.02 8.96
2013:Q1 1.3 n.d. 8.91
2013:Q2 2.24 n.d. 9.02
2013:Q3 2.05 n.d. 9.03
2013:Q4 2.84 1.82 9.1
2014:Q1 3 n.d. 9.34
2014:Q2 1.6 n.d. 9.36
2014:Q3 2.47 n.d. 9.36
2014:Q4 2.01 2.01 9.32
2015:Q1 3.33 n.d. 9.29
2015:Q2 2.72 n.d. 9.17
2015:Q3 3.46 n.d. 9.18
2015:Q4 2.94 2.16 9.06
2016:Q1 3.39 n.d. 8.93
2016:Q2 3.54 n.d. 8.85
2016:Q3 3.57 n.d. 8.74
2016:Q4 1.71 n.d. 8.72

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Figure 2: Buybacks, Dividends, and Investment GDP Weighted Average*

Percent of GDP

Date Net Buybacks, GDP weighted Dividen.d.s, GDP weighted Investment, GDP weighted
1995 -0.7 2.96 11.87
1996 -0.91 2.99 11.82
1997 -0.87 3.09 12.1
1998 -0.9 3.25 11.88
1999 -2.3 3.05 11.99
2000 -3.39 2.76 12.36
2001 -1.19 2.85 11.42
2002 -1.08 2.98 10.68
2003 -1.08 3.1 10.53
2004 -1.08 3.33 10.6
2005 -0.82 3.3 11.04
2006 -0.14 3.72 11.43
2007 -0.72 3.74 11.67
2008 -1 3.86 11.6
2009 -1.41 3.23 9.89
2010 -0.49 2.99 10.3
2011 0.23 3.18 10.75
2012 0.28 3.32 11.09
2013 0.41 3.31 11
2014 0.68 3.54 11.17

* Average across economies, weighted by share of nominal GDP. Return to text.

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Figure 3: Buybacks, Dividends, and Investment - OECD Median

Percent of GDP

Date Net Buybacks, OECD Median Dividen.d.s, OECD Median Investment, OECD Median
1995 -1.89 2.57 11.62
1996 -2.8 2.49 11.96
1997 -3.11 2.65 12.67
1998 -3.85 2.94 13.43
1999 -4.7 2.81 13.44
2000 -5.81 2.99 13.5
2001 -3.17 3.12 13.14
2002 -1.93 3 12.07
2003 -3.07 3.26 11.76
2004 -2.52 4.13 11.59
2005 -2.8 3.95 12.23
2006 -2.47 3.99 12.34
2007 -3.43 4.88 13.49
2008 -2.07 4.24 13.8
2009 -1.92 3.61 12.02
2010 -1 3.86 11.44
2011 -1.87 4.07 11.63
2012 -1.05 4 12.34
2013 -1.04 4.24 12.46
2014 -1.31 4.77 12.11

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Figure 4: Buybacks+Dividends vs. Real Investment

Change in Real Investment/K(-1) Between 2002-2008 an.d. 2009-2014

Case Country Change in Real Investment Change in Real Net Buybacks+Dividen.d.s
1 GBR -1.42 0.57
2 AUT -0.67 1.55
3 BEL -0.2 2.56
4 DNK -0.71 3.88
5 FRA -0.29 0.73
6 DEU -0.07 -0.12
7 ITA -1.08 -1.12
8 NLD -0.17 0.34
9 NOR 0.27 -0.21
10 SWE -0.26 0.32
11 JPN -0.33 0.13
12 FIN -0.81 -0.61
13 GRC -0.78 0.26
14 IRL -0.47 2.53
15 PRT -1.72 2.45
16 ESP -2.26 1.18
17 KOR -0.83 0.47
18 SVK -0.96 1
19 EST -3.82 1.04
20 SVN -2.2 0.31
21 POL 0.14 2.12
22 USA -0.11 -0.23
23 CHE -0.1 1.28
24 CAN -0.17 0.14
25 CZE -0.31 1.27
26 HUN -0.73 6.24

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Figure 5: Out of Sample Forecast For I/K(-1)
Date Upper St. Dev., OECD Lower St. Dev., OECD Forecast, OECD Data, OECD Upper St. Dev., U.S. Lower St. Dev., U.S. Forecast, U.S. Data, U.S. Upper St. Dev., Canada Lower St. Dev., Canada Forecast, Canada Data, Canada Upper St. Dev., France Lower St. Dev., France Forecast, France Data, France Upper St. Dev., Germany Lower St. Dev., Germany Forecast, Germany Data, Germany Upper St. Dev., Italy Lower St. Dev., Italy Forecast, Italy Data, Italy Upper St. Dev., Japan Lower St. Dev., Japan Forecast, Japan Data, Japan Upper St. Dev., U.K. Lower St. Dev., U.K. Forecast, U.K. Data, U.K.
1995 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 n.d. n.d. n.d. n.d. 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08
1996 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 n.d. n.d. n.d. n.d. 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08
1997 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08
1998 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08
1999 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08
2000 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08
2001 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07
2002 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07
2003 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06
2004 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06
2005 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07
2006 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06
2007 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06
2008 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06
2009 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05
2010 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05
2011 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
2012 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
2013 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
2014 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

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Figure 6: Real Buybacks+Dividends vs. Investment Forecast Error

Investment Forecast Error

Case Country Investment Forecast Error Change in Real Net Buybacks+Dividen.d.s
1 GBR 0 0.57
2 AUT -0.03 1.55
3 BEL -0.01 2.56
4 DNK -0.01 3.88
5 FRA 0 0.73
6 DEU -0.02 -0.12
7 ITA -0.01 -1.12
8 NLD 0.02 0.34
9 NOR 0 -0.21
10 SWE -0.01 0.32
11 JPN -0.04 0.13
12 FIN 0.01 -0.61
13 GRC 0.1 0.26
14 IRL 0.21 2.53
15 PRT -0.04 2.45
16 ESP -0.04 1.18
17 KOR -0.05 0.47
18 SVK -0.05 1
19 EST -0.05 1.04
20 SVN -0.1 0.31
21 POL -0.02 2.12
22 USA 0 -0.23
23 CHE -0.01 1.28
24 CAN 0.01 0.14
25 CZE 0.01 1.27
26 HUN 0 6.24

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Last Update: April 11, 2017