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Photo of Michael T. Kiley

Michael T. Kiley

Senior Associate Director

Program Direction Section

Financial Stability

202-452-2448
michael.t.kiley@frb.gov
Education
  • Ph.D., Economics, University of Maryland, 1996
  • M.A., Economics, University of Maryland, 1993
  • B.A., Economics, University of Delaware, 1991
  • Current Research Topics

  • Financial Stability and Monetary Policy
  • Macroeconomic Effects of Unconventional Policies
    • Senior Adviser (Associate/Assistant Director), Research and Statistics

      Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

    • 2007 - present
    • Chief, Macroeconomics and Quantitative Studies

      Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

    • 2003 - 2007
    • Economist

      Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

    • 2001 - 2003
    • Economist

      Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

    • 1996 - 2003
    • Lecturer

      Johns Hopkins University

    • 2000 - 2001
    • Visiting Assistant Professor

      University of Michigan at Ann Arbor

    • 1998
  • Kiley, Michael T. (2016). "Policy Paradoxes in the New Keynesian Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 21, pp. 1-15.
  • Kiley, Michael T. (2016). "Macroeconomic Modeling of Financial Frictions for Macroprudential Policymaking: A Review of Pressing Challenges," FEDS Notes. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
  • Chung, Hess, Edward Herbst, and Michael T. Kiley (2015). "Effective Monetary Policy Strategies in New Keynesian Models: A Reexamination," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29, no. 1, pp. 289-344.
  • Kiley, Michael T. (2015). "An Evaluation of the Inflationary Pressure Associated with Short- and Long-Term Unemployment," Economics Letters, vol. 137, pp. 5-9.
  • Kiley, Michael T. (2015). "What Can the Data Tell Us About the Equilibrium Real Interest Rate?" Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-077. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
  • Kiley, Michael T. (2015). "Low Inflation in the United States: A Summary of Recent Research," FEDS Notes 2015-11-23. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Kiley, Michael T. and Jae Sim (2015). "Optimal Monetary and Macroprudential Policies: Gains and Pitfalls in a Model of Financial Intermediation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-078. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
  • Aikman, David, Michael T. Kiley, Seung Jung Lee, Michael G. Palumbo, and Missaka N. Warusawitharana (2015). "Mapping Heat in the U.S. Financial System," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-059. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
  • Aikman, David, Michael T. Kiley, Seung Jung Lee, Michael G. Palumbo, and Missaka N. Warusawitharana (2015). "Mapping Heat in the U.S. Financial System: A Summary," FEDS Notes 2015-08-05. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Guerrieri, Luca, Matteo Iacoviello, Francisco Covas, John C. Driscoll, Michael T. Kiley, Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar, Albert Queraltó, and Jae W. Sim (2015). "Macroeconomic Effects of Banking Sector Losses across Structural Models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-044. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
  • Kiley, Michael T. (2014). "The Aggregate Demand Effects of Short- and Long-Term Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10, no. 4, pp. 69-104.
  • Kiley, Michael T. (2014). "The Response of Equity Prices to Movements in Long-Term Interest Rates Associated with Monetary Policy Statements: Before and After the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, vol. 46, no. 5, pp. 1057-1071.
  • Kiley, Michael T., and Jae W. Sim (2014). "Bank Capital and the Macroeconomy: Policy Considerations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 43, pp. 175-198.
  • Arseneau, David M., and Michael T. Kiley (2014). "The Role of Financial Imbalances in Assessing the State of the Economy," FEDS Notes 2014-04-18. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Kiley, Michael T. (2013). "Output Gaps," Journal of Macroeconomics, vol. 37, pp. 1-18.
  • Kiley, Michael T. (2013). "Monetary Policy Statements, Treasury Yields, and Private Yields," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-16. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Kiley, Michael T. (2013). "Exchange Rates, Monetary Policy Statements, and Uncovered Interest Parity: Before and After the Zero Lower Bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-17. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Chung, Hess, Michael T. Kiley, and Jean-Philippe Laforte (2010). "Documentation of the Estimated, Dynamic, Optimization- Based (EDO) Model of the U.S. Economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-29. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Boivin, Jean, Michael T. Kiley, and Frederic S. Mishkin (2010). "How has the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Evolved Over Time?" in Friedman, Benjamin M., Michael Woodford eds., Handbook of Monetary Economics, Vol 3. Elsevier, pp. 369-422.
  • Dokko, Jane, Brian M. Doyle, Michael T. Kiley, Jinill Kim, Shane Sherlund, Jae Sim, and Skander J. Van den Heuvel (2011). "Monetary Policy and the Global Housing Bubble," Economic Policy, vol. 26, no. 66, pp. 233-283.
  • Kiley, Michael T. (2010). "Habit Persistence, Nonseparability between Consumption and Leisure, Or Rule-of-Thumb Consumers: Which Accounts for the Predictability of Consumption Growth?" Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 92, no. 3, pp. 679-683.
  • Edge, Rochelle M., Michael T. Kiley, and Jean-Philippe Laforte (2010). "A Comparison of Forecast Performance between Federal Reserve Staff Forecasts, Simple Reduced-Form Models, and a DSGE Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 25, no. 4, pp. 720-754.
  • Kiley, Michael T. (2009). "Comments on 'Inflation Expectations, Uncertainty, the Phillips Curve, and Monetary Policy' by Christopher A. Sims," in Fuhrer, Jeff, Yolanda K. Kodrzycki, Jane S. Little and Giovanni P. Olivei eds., Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy: A Phillips Curve Retrospective. Cambridge and London: MIT Press, pp. 267-280.
  • Kiley, Michael T. (2009). "Inflation Expectations, Uncertainty, the Phillips Curve, and Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-15. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Edge, Rochelle M., Michael T. Kiley, and Jean-Philippe Laforte (2008). "Natural Rate Measures in an Estimated DSGE Model of the U.S. Economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 32, no. 8, pp. 2512-2535.
  • Kiley, Michael T. (2008). "Estimating the Common Trend Rate of Inflation for Consumer Prices and Consumer Prices Excluding Food and Energy Prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-38. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Kiley, Michael T. (2008). "Monetary Policy Actions and Long-Run Inflation Expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-03. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Edge, Rochelle M., Michael T. Kiley, and Jean-Philippe Laforte (2007). "Documentation of the Research and Statistics Division's Estimated DSGE Model of the U.S. Economy: 2006 Version," Finance and Economic Discussion Series 2007-53. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Kiley, Michael T. (2007). "A Quantitative Comparison of Sticky-Price and Sticky-Information Models of Price Setting," Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, vol. 39, pp. 101-125.
  • Kiley, Michael T. (2007). "Is Moderate-to-High Inflation Inherently Unstable?" International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 173-201.
  • Kiley, Michael T. (2004). "Stock Prices and Fundamentals: A Macroeconomic Perspective," Journal of Business, vol. 77, no. 4, pp. 909-936.
  • Kiley, Michael T. (2004). "The Economic Impact of the Computer Revolution: A Progress Report," in Paganetto, Luigi ed., Knowledge Economy, Information Technologies and Growth. U.K. and Burlington, Vt.: Ashgate, pp. 267-295.
  • Suppanz, Hannes, Michael Wise, and Michael Kiley (2004). "Product Market Competition and Economic Performance in the United States," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 398. OECD Economics Department.
  • Kiley, Michael T. (2003). "An Analytical Approach to the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles and the Benefit from Activist Monetary Policy," Contributions to Macroeconomics, Vol. 3, no. 1.
  • Kiley, Michael T. (2003). "How should Unemployment Benefits Respond to the Business Cycle?" Topics in Economic Analysis and Policy, Vol. 3, no. 1.
  • Kiley, Michael T. (2007). "Why is Inflation Low when Productivity Growth is High?" Economic inquiry, vol. 41, no. 3, pp. 392-406.
  • Kiley, Michael (2002). "The Lead of Output Over Inflation in Sticky Price Models," Economics Bulletin, vol. 5, no. 5, pp. 1-7.
  • Kiley, Michael T. (2002). "Partial Adjustment and Staggered Price Setting," Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, vol. 34, no. 2, pp. 283-298.
  • Kiley, Michael T. (2001). "Computers and Growth with Frictions: Aggregate and Disaggregate Evidence," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, vol. 55, pp. 171-215.
  • Kiley, Michael T. (2000). "Endogenous Price Stickiness and Business Cycle Persistence," Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, vol. 32, no. 1, pp. 28-53.
  • Kiley, Michael T. (1999). "The Supply of Skilled Labour and Skill-Biased Technological Progress," Economic Journal, vol. 109, no. 458, pp. 708-724.
  • Kiley, Michael T. (1998). "Monetary Policy Under Neoclassical and New-Keynesian Phillips Curves, with an Application to Price Level and Inflation Targeting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-27. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Kiley, Michael T. (1998). "Predicting Tax Rate Changes: Insights from the Permanent Income Hypothesis," Journal of Macroeconomics, vol. 20, no. 1, pp. 153-167.
  • Kiley, Michael T. (1997). "Efficiency Wages, Nominal Rigidities and the Cyclical Behavior of Real Wages and Marginal Cost," Economics Letters, vol. 56, no. 2, pp. 215-221.
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Last update: September 26, 2016