Federal Reserve Seasonal Factors for Motor Vehicle Sales

The Federal Reserve Board has re-estimated seasonal factors for new motor vehicle sales, using data through April 2023. These factors are estimated once per year using X13-ARIMA. The factors will be revised again in the summer of 2024.

The Federal Reserve Board provides seasonal factors for sales of cars and light trucks to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) for use in the National Income and Product Accounts. The BEA has posted on their website seasonal factors for motor vehicle sales from January 1967 (January 1976 for foreign light trucks) through June 2024. These factors are available for download here. A Technical Q&A with details on the calculation of the seasonal factors for light vehicles is available here.

The table below shows the Federal Reserve seasonal factors for monthly motor vehicle sales. For cars and light trucks, these are essentially the same seasonal factors that are available from the BEA extended through December 2025. For completed calendar years, the seasonal factors posted by the BEA may vary slightly from the factors posted here, reflecting small adjustments to align annual totals of the seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted data. The extended projections of the seasonal factors are prone to larger revisions each year than are the seasonal factor projections for months closer to the end of the data sample. A comma-delimited text file containing the monthly seasonal factors is available for download here (CSV).

Monthly Seasonal Factors for Motor Vehicle Sales

	Domestic Autos	Foreign Autos	Domestic Light Trucks	Foreign Light Trucks	Domestic Heavy Trucks	Foreign Heavy Trucks
							Jan-2018	83.03	79.86	82.47	84.49	88.80	64.62
Feb-2018	94.83	86.95	91.01	91.50	87.29	76.84
Mar-2018	121.70	114.13	112.19	116.13	105.16	104.45
Apr-2018	97.86	98.11	94.89	90.79	97.41	92.17
May-2018	113.90	110.88	108.81	108.09	102.12	111.34
Jun-2018	110.72	111.45	106.54	105.43	103.57	118.42
Jul-2018	94.51	100.93	95.46	96.12	97.91	91.86
Aug-2018	102.45	107.76	103.78	109.68	105.33	114.80
Sep-2018	99.39	96.84	100.88	97.63	97.79	91.23
Oct-2018	92.02	91.99	94.95	92.89	108.08	97.19
Nov-2018	91.05	95.54	95.90	95.97	94.17	90.77
Dec-2018	100.52	107.16	114.91	112.50	112.66	141.49
Jan-2019	83.93	79.80	83.13	84.74	88.55	67.67
Feb-2019	94.44	86.74	91.15	91.92	87.37	78.76
Mar-2019	117.69	111.97	108.87	113.67	102.08	101.55
Apr-2019	100.79	99.73	98.17	93.01	99.67	92.70
May-2019	112.20	112.40	107.53	109.23	101.51	114.23
Jun-2019	108.84	108.50	103.92	103.03	100.51	110.94
Jul-2019	96.71	102.60	98.08	97.66	101.34	96.38
Aug-2019	111.23	114.05	114.13	116.65	102.33	109.03
Sep-2019	88.60	89.99	88.64	89.05	100.84	94.11
Oct-2019	95.91	93.32	98.41	94.90	107.68	98.92
Nov-2019	95.31	99.79	99.05	100.34	92.41	86.70
Dec-2019	96.34	102.54	110.81	106.34	115.37	142.91
Jan-2020	83.11	81.59	82.93	85.64	88.34	71.89
Feb-2020	100.91	91.47	97.35	99.33	89.16	80.76
Mar-2020	110.33	104.18	102.96	105.70	105.09	103.13
Apr-2020	105.64	100.64	101.97	96.14	100.02	94.93
May-2020	112.50	115.40	107.54	112.68	95.26	104.41
Jun-2020	103.58	104.83	100.04	97.62	105.88	115.61
Jul-2020	98.72	104.94	99.98	98.99	100.32	99.53
Aug-2020	100.28	107.60	101.15	108.98	100.06	103.61
Sep-2020	97.88	95.35	100.34	95.08	104.14	97.26
Oct-2020	100.31	97.81	101.47	99.60	104.65	96.81
Nov-2020	87.96	91.83	90.88	90.86	92.90	84.83
Dec-2020	104.47	111.12	120.23	116.03	119.73	149.81
Jan-2021	82.43	79.73	81.72	84.59	83.23	68.06
Feb-2021	93.64	86.55	91.30	93.02	87.36	81.85
Mar-2021	113.48	105.26	106.36	108.82	108.95	109.35
Apr-2021	105.27	101.38	101.58	96.12	98.58	92.41
May-2021	112.26	114.66	108.15	113.02	96.00	103.79
Jun-2021	104.24	105.06	99.97	98.06	105.62	115.75
Jul-2021	102.58	108.92	103.08	102.74	97.31	95.53
Aug-2021	94.94	104.10	97.22	103.07	101.92	105.64
Sep-2021	98.80	94.72	100.59	95.26	104.70	98.77
Oct-2021	97.89	96.72	98.65	97.59	102.14	93.28
Nov-2021	90.36	93.35	93.53	91.99	95.53	86.35
Dec-2021	101.67	108.73	116.29	113.07	119.62	150.52
Jan-2022	82.97	80.17	82.22	85.26	84.25	69.85
Feb-2022	93.33	86.59	91.35	93.52	87.12	83.69
Mar-2022	117.27	105.86	109.93	111.62	108.36	110.98
Apr-2022	110.28	105.51	105.50	101.65	96.15	86.83
May-2022	103.72	108.88	101.25	105.51	97.94	106.25
Jun-2022	107.75	106.52	102.88	99.79	105.64	116.67
Jul-2022	98.97	107.77	99.69	99.92	94.50	92.40
Aug-2022	97.20	106.38	99.88	105.62	105.57	111.37
Sep-2022	97.54	95.60	99.73	94.64	103.17	98.14
Oct-2022	96.93	94.04	96.77	95.78	103.65	92.40
Nov-2022	93.17	94.88	96.33	93.89	95.87	87.36
Dec-2022	100.57	108.30	115.55	111.58	116.21	139.64
Jan-2023	83.50	80.55	82.69	85.87	86.18	73.91
Feb-2023	93.17	86.78	91.56	93.84	87.01	86.15
Mar-2023	116.49	106.35	109.15	112.12	108.21	115.12
Apr-2023	109.36	102.41	103.77	100.04	93.64	80.62
May-2023	105.85	111.12	104.14	108.67	101.72	112.35
Jun-2023	106.45	107.63	101.74	98.98	104.07	113.76
Jul-2023	97.20	104.84	97.48	97.35	95.41	92.22
Aug-2023	100.05	107.97	102.75	107.72	104.85	112.31
Sep-2023	101.45	99.74	103.10	99.41	100.46	94.52
Oct-2023	92.75	90.67	93.71	91.02	106.08	94.52
Nov-2023	94.31	94.05	96.34	93.49	96.48	89.09
Dec-2023	96.90	106.70	111.48	108.58	112.79	131.15
Jan-2024	86.17	82.45	85.70	88.92	89.71	79.68
Feb-2024	95.92	87.98	94.69	96.12	90.65	92.33
Mar-2024	117.80	108.45	109.43	115.02	102.02	106.21
Apr-2024	105.10	98.78	100.61	95.42	98.70	83.06
May-2024	107.93	113.74	106.40	111.48	101.03	116.73
Jun-2024	108.99	109.00	102.81	101.75	99.20	102.88
Jul-2024	95.07	103.11	96.93	94.44	100.92	99.16
Aug-2024	108.44	115.62	112.31	115.09	101.37	109.65
Sep-2024	88.66	90.08	88.59	88.69	100.25	94.08
Oct-2024	98.82	93.32	99.98	95.66	109.87	100.24
Nov-2024	97.09	99.07	98.61	97.20	93.45	84.42
Dec-2024	94.00	101.11	108.31	103.06	116.50	131.54
Jan-2025	85.25	83.52	85.25	89.06	89.13	82.83
Feb-2025	92.63	86.79	91.92	94.40	86.86	88.70
Mar-2025	116.04	105.19	107.12	112.81	102.88	105.98
Apr-2025	108.77	100.74	104.09	98.44	98.74	83.81
May-2025	112.44	118.03	109.94	116.88	97.94	111.24
Jun-2025	101.49	103.13	96.26	94.49	101.97	105.39
Jul-2025	97.92	104.25	100.06	96.04	100.58	99.85
Aug-2025	104.77	114.44	108.72	112.49	98.52	104.69
Sep-2025	90.52	91.88	91.03	90.47	102.98	96.23
Oct-2025	98.40	94.13	99.41	96.18	109.48	103.28
Nov-2025	95.92	96.40	96.56	94.80	91.24	80.84
Dec-2025	95.26	103.85	110.36	104.84	121.01	138.74

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