Federal Reserve Seasonal Factors for Motor Vehicle Sales

Release Date: August 1, 2017

The Federal Reserve Board has re-estimated seasonal factors for new motor vehicle sales, using data through April 2017. These factors are estimated once per year using X12-ARIMA. The factors will be revised again in summer 2018.

The Federal Reserve Board provides seasonal factors for cars and light trucks to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) for use in the National Income and Product Accounts. The BEA has posted on their website seasonal factors for motor vehicle sales from January 1967 (January 1976 for foreign light trucks) through June 2018. These factors are available for download here.

The table below shows the Federal Reserve seasonal factors for monthly motor vehicle sales. For cars and light trucks, these are essentially the same seasonal factors that are available from the BEA extended through December 2019. For completed calendar years, the seasonal factors posted by the BEA may vary slightly from the factors posted here, reflecting small adjustments that align the seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted sales totals. The extended projections of the seasonal factors are prone to larger revisions each year than are the seasonal factor projections for months closer to the end of the data sample. A comma-delimited text file containing the monthly seasonal factors is available for download here.

Monthly Seasonal Factors for Motor Vehicle Sales

 
 
Domestic
Autos
Foreign
Autos
Domestic
Light Trucks
Foreign
Light Trucks
Domestic
Medium &
Heavy Trucks
Foreign
Medium &
Heavy Trucks
Jan-2014  80.48  78.15  78.80  84.74  89.13  61.87
Feb-2014  95.68  86.72  91.71  89.97  87.04  69.20
Mar-2014 115.70 112.10 104.75 109.14 104.21  95.31
Apr-2014 104.28 103.45 100.05  95.41 101.62 100.84
May-2014 121.48 115.30 113.55 109.74 100.75 110.76
Jun-2014 102.84 101.01  99.60  95.34 106.53 125.78
Jul-2014 102.04 108.27 105.39 106.38 101.86 111.49
Aug-2014 109.93 112.10 107.90 116.79  97.43  98.83
Sep-2014  90.26  91.67  92.74  90.88  99.67  93.72
Oct-2014  90.56  93.33  97.16  96.08 106.35  98.25
Nov-2014  88.31  94.20  95.19  96.47  88.68  85.75
Dec-2014  99.49 106.13 113.73 112.19 117.31 149.89
Jan-2015  83.78  80.47  82.44  86.26  85.99  57.33
Feb-2015  95.51  86.80  91.67  89.69  87.15  69.96
Mar-2015 112.00 108.66 101.45 106.23 105.86  97.97
Apr-2015 104.77 104.14 102.37  96.15 102.84 103.39
May-2015 116.77 111.34 108.21 105.81  97.95 105.43
Jun-2015 105.61 103.39 101.67  98.60 109.92 128.11
Jul-2015 101.20 107.65 103.97 106.82 101.91 111.49
Aug-2015 105.48 106.99 104.84 109.71  99.14  98.61
Sep-2015  94.69  95.87  97.73  95.71  99.96  95.29
Oct-2015  94.14  96.31  99.37  99.39 102.74  93.77
Nov-2015  84.20  90.26  90.70  91.66  90.84  88.91
Dec-2015 105.33 112.52 119.59 118.31 116.21 154.56
Jan-2016  79.29  76.21  78.46  81.43  82.72  53.86
Feb-2016  95.14  86.75  91.69  89.34  91.49  73.39
Mar-2016 117.78 113.90 109.35 112.41 109.16 105.07
Apr-2016 105.71 105.59 100.48  98.53  99.55  97.10
May-2016 111.42 106.21 104.07 100.33 101.37 106.00
Jun-2016 108.97 106.63 107.19 101.96 111.14 132.67
Jul-2016 101.34 107.41 101.51 106.37  95.88  99.22
Aug-2016 104.84 106.24 104.91 109.77 105.14 107.56
Sep-2016  95.81  97.07  98.23  97.55  99.22  97.84
Oct-2016  89.43  91.04  94.03  92.58 100.38  88.56
Nov-2016  88.69  94.75  95.68  96.73  93.33  92.64
Dec-2016 103.61 110.91 115.94 115.80 112.26 150.84
Jan-2017  78.98  76.07  78.61  81.12  85.18  53.81
Feb-2017  94.60  86.50  91.79  88.91  87.08  70.67
Mar-2017 115.94 112.85 107.75 112.17 108.66 108.53
Apr-2017 103.23 102.91  99.47  95.34  97.18  92.90
May-2017 113.80 108.58 107.12 102.73 105.39 111.31
Jun-2017 108.99 107.06 104.73 103.39 110.11 131.33
Jul-2017  99.97 105.23 100.83 103.13  97.42  95.81
Aug-2017 109.09 110.14 109.99 114.63 104.87 109.34
Sep-2017  97.80  98.80  98.72  98.76  96.73  94.53
Oct-2017  87.14  88.61  91.37  90.62 102.03  90.72
Nov-2017  89.85  95.86  98.18  97.60  93.80  95.19
Dec-2017 100.06 107.49 110.52 111.25 108.09 144.22
Jan-2018  80.17  77.38  81.15  82.67  88.54  56.27
Feb-2018  94.24  86.23  91.90  88.65  87.14  70.23
Mar-2018 119.62 116.22 109.98 115.59 105.55 103.96
Apr-2018  97.38  97.57  94.36  90.40 100.02  96.21
May-2018 118.44 112.71 112.25 107.13 105.13 112.86
Jun-2018 110.88 109.06 104.92 104.88 107.66 125.65
Jul-2018  97.47 102.32  98.06 100.85  99.44  96.64
Aug-2018 108.02 109.70 108.33 115.07 104.69 111.51
Sep-2018  96.44  96.69  98.11  95.32  94.19  90.92
Oct-2018  89.08  90.59  94.30  92.76 105.52  95.52
Nov-2018  89.63  96.19  96.06  98.70  92.72  94.55
Dec-2018 100.35 107.39 112.91 110.12 108.98 142.80
Jan-2019  81.59  78.53  82.70  84.24  88.21  56.80
Feb-2019  94.10  86.10  92.01  88.55  87.32  69.66
Mar-2019 114.92 112.15 104.64 110.74 102.40  99.82
Apr-2019  99.97  99.92  96.48  93.26 102.96  99.05
May-2019 117.35 112.36 110.58 107.62 105.06 115.07
Jun-2019 108.86 106.66 103.95 101.46 105.06 120.26
Jul-2019  99.49 104.37 101.12 103.19 103.07 101.77
Aug-2019 114.87 115.83 113.07 122.41 101.48 105.51
Sep-2019  89.15  89.71  91.25  87.53  96.96  93.46
Oct-2019  92.55  93.97  99.12  96.46 104.74  97.24
Nov-2019  91.15  98.04  96.32  99.99  90.55  90.31
Dec-2019  98.72 105.65 112.53 108.82 111.14 146.73

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Last Update: August 1, 2017