Federal Reserve Seasonal Factors for Motor Vehicle Sales

Release Date: September 30, 2022

The Federal Reserve Board has re-estimated seasonal factors for new motor vehicle sales, using data through April 2022; in the estimation, sales data for January, March through May, August, and September 2021 are identified as outliers due to the disbursement of economic impact payments and the effect of supply chain bottlenecks on production. These factors are estimated once per year using X13-ARIMA. The factors will be revised again in the summer of 2023.

The Federal Reserve Board provides seasonal factors for sales of cars and light trucks to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) for use in the National Income and Product Accounts. The BEA has posted on their website seasonal factors for motor vehicle sales from January 1967 (January 1976 for foreign light trucks) through June 2023. These factors are available for download here. A Technical Q&A with details on the calculation of the seasonal factors for light vehicles is available here.

The table below shows the Federal Reserve seasonal factors for monthly motor vehicle sales. For cars and light trucks, these are essentially the same seasonal factors that are available from the BEA extended through December 2024. For completed calendar years, the seasonal factors posted by the BEA may vary slightly from the factors posted here, reflecting small adjustments to align annual totals of the seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted data. The extended projections of the seasonal factors are prone to larger revisions each year than are the seasonal factor projections for months closer to the end of the data sample. A comma-delimited text file containing the monthly seasonal factors is available for download here (CSV).

Monthly Seasonal Factors for Motor Vehicle Sales

 
 
Domestic
Autos
Foreign
Autos
Domestic
Light Trucks
Foreign
Light Trucks
Domestic
Heavy Trucks
Foreign
Heavy Trucks
Jan-2017  79.99  76.54  78.33  80.74  85.01  55.71
Feb-2017  95.22  87.09  90.84  90.80  87.37  74.52
Mar-2017 116.98 113.36 107.85 111.60 108.49 107.77
Apr-2017 104.33 105.79 100.13  96.66  95.68  92.56
May-2017 112.88 110.05 106.78 105.47 103.07 110.75
Jun-2017 107.15 108.54 104.56 101.31 106.69 127.19
Jul-2017  99.45 105.81  99.22 102.04  96.16  91.31
Aug-2017 105.10 106.25 106.15 109.31 105.42 111.63
Sep-2017  99.98  98.34 103.03 101.89 100.13  95.28
Oct-2017  86.46  88.45  91.13  90.35 103.64  91.15
Nov-2017  90.65  92.50  97.06  96.19  94.45  91.83
Dec-2017 100.34 106.10 114.02 112.19 110.77 146.63
Jan-2018  81.98  77.57  80.58  82.60  88.38  60.22
Feb-2018  94.93  87.07  90.85  91.13  87.31  75.23
Mar-2018 122.05 117.78 111.83 116.72 105.64 103.69
Apr-2018  97.37 100.54  94.08  90.26  98.14  94.93
May-2018 116.42 112.74 110.37 108.35 102.59 111.67
Jun-2018 111.15 113.50 107.60 106.92 104.09 121.67
Jul-2018  95.72 102.12  96.06  97.61  97.82  90.75
Aug-2018 103.90 107.03 105.10 109.03 104.91 116.43
Sep-2018  98.15  95.35 100.77  98.96  97.82  91.28
Oct-2018  88.60  89.47  93.76  92.31 107.65  95.87
Nov-2018  90.65  92.79  96.64  96.02  93.57  89.91
Dec-2018 100.65 104.44 114.47 111.63 111.92 144.66
Jan-2019  82.90  77.43  80.99  82.04  88.09  61.72
Feb-2019  94.70  87.10  90.92  91.56  87.41  75.71
Mar-2019 117.92 116.20 108.20 114.48 102.77 100.54
Apr-2019 100.48 102.82  97.45  93.12 100.73  96.38
May-2019 115.22 114.53 109.34 109.25 102.24 115.48
Jun-2019 108.81 111.34 104.96 104.11 101.22 115.04
Jul-2019  97.98 103.90  98.54  99.89 101.13  95.40
Aug-2019 114.25 112.95 115.75 116.93 101.66 110.81
Sep-2019  87.30  88.27  89.01  89.45 100.93  94.17
Oct-2019  91.40  90.51  97.06  93.88 107.13  96.33
Nov-2019  94.33  95.45  99.43 100.34  91.51  85.67
Dec-2019  96.90 100.22 111.10 105.95 114.36 146.54
Jan-2020  82.24  78.05  80.16  82.81  87.90  64.98
Feb-2020 101.19  91.99  96.86  98.84  89.20  76.53
Mar-2020 110.82 109.42 102.67 106.79 106.12 101.56
Apr-2020 103.38 104.75 100.43  94.91 101.36  99.98
May-2020 116.70 117.63 109.60 112.55  96.04 105.40
Jun-2020 104.59 108.17 101.88 100.26 106.72 121.27
Jul-2020 100.17 106.91 100.62 101.75 100.09  98.54
Aug-2020 103.04 105.92 102.70 107.52  99.22 105.47
Sep-2020  96.95  92.78 100.81  97.23 104.13  97.22
Oct-2020  94.69  94.23  99.60  97.91 104.09  94.05
Nov-2020  86.43  87.31  91.09  90.28  91.90  83.17
Dec-2020 105.79 107.92 121.10 116.81 118.50 154.93
Jan-2021  80.88  75.95  78.16  80.36  82.71  60.52
Feb-2021  94.26  87.33  90.86  92.68  87.45  76.47
Mar-2021 113.30 111.43 105.78 109.88 110.19 108.08
Apr-2021 103.24 106.12 100.18  95.41 100.15  98.22
May-2021 117.61 117.30 110.85 112.96  96.93 104.95
Jun-2021 104.12 108.80 101.36 100.18 106.57 123.04
Jul-2021 104.81 111.37 103.95 106.12  97.03  94.13
Aug-2021  99.09 102.11  99.59 102.95 100.93 107.33
Sep-2021  97.10  92.32 100.93  96.31 104.73  99.04
Oct-2021  91.61  92.14  96.27  95.68 101.47  89.84
Nov-2021  89.00  87.95  94.17  92.41  94.29  84.24
Dec-2021 102.70 105.39 116.99 113.17 118.25 157.58
Jan-2022  81.19  75.98  78.06  80.28  83.68  61.42
Feb-2022  94.05  87.52  90.82  93.15  87.22  77.27
Mar-2022 116.89 113.63 109.58 112.55 109.83 109.22
Apr-2022 107.36 110.34 103.31 100.52  97.82  93.45
May-2022 109.64 111.73 104.29 105.57  99.03 107.00
Jun-2022 107.55 111.28 104.82 102.26 106.80 125.77
Jul-2022 101.54 109.87 100.33 103.83  94.17  90.68
Aug-2022 101.57 103.81 102.38 105.59 104.33 114.13
Sep-2022  96.67  92.86 100.61  96.59 103.25  98.20
Oct-2022  89.64  89.28  93.89  92.73 102.93  88.44
Nov-2022  91.02  88.55  96.81  94.39  94.40  85.08
Dec-2022 103.20 104.80 117.39 113.15 114.63 146.75
Jan-2023  81.53  76.01  78.04  80.26  85.57  64.34
Feb-2023  93.97  87.87  90.94  93.46  87.08  78.63
Mar-2023 115.71 115.04 108.57 112.98 109.99 113.69
Apr-2023 105.52 107.77 101.04  97.73  95.53  87.19
May-2023 112.06 113.95 107.37 108.67 103.00 113.94
Jun-2023 107.16 112.79 104.37 102.66 105.37 124.03
Jul-2023  99.54 107.31  97.88 100.84  95.00  90.29
Aug-2023 105.02 105.65 105.85 107.71 103.42 115.24
Sep-2023 100.21  96.02 103.67 101.41 100.40  94.89
Oct-2023  86.07  85.62  91.17  88.78 105.28  89.29
Nov-2023  91.17  87.73  96.66  93.05  94.96  86.52
Dec-2023  99.83 102.56 113.31 110.47 111.08 138.30
Jan-2024  83.61  77.25  80.23  82.56  89.00  69.46
Feb-2024  96.86  89.66  94.18  95.68  90.76  82.98
Mar-2024 117.32 117.83 108.71 115.97 103.79 104.29
Apr-2024 101.86 104.26  98.27  93.93 100.92  90.87
May-2024 114.47 117.20 110.04 111.10 102.50 118.80
Jun-2024 108.96 114.10 105.01 104.82 100.46 113.25
Jul-2024  97.99 105.37  97.69  99.40 100.44  96.90
Aug-2024 114.77 112.97 115.52 115.91  99.91 113.26
Sep-2024  86.91  86.78  89.27  89.18 100.31  94.05
Oct-2024  90.83  88.01  96.99  92.92 108.92  94.31
Nov-2024  94.35  91.46  99.02  97.62  91.77  81.84
Dec-2024  96.42  97.70 110.37 104.42 114.56 139.09
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Last Update: September 30, 2022