Federal Reserve Seasonal Factors for Motor Vehicle Sales

The Federal Reserve Board has re-estimated seasonal factors for new motor vehicle sales, using data through April 2022; in the estimation, sales data for January, March through May, August, and September 2021 are identified as outliers due to the disbursement of economic impact payments and the effect of supply chain bottlenecks on production. These factors are estimated once per year using X13-ARIMA. The factors will be revised again in the summer of 2023.

The Federal Reserve Board provides seasonal factors for sales of cars and light trucks to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) for use in the National Income and Product Accounts. The BEA has posted on their website seasonal factors for motor vehicle sales from January 1967 (January 1976 for foreign light trucks) through June 2023. These factors are available for download here. A Technical Q&A with details on the calculation of the seasonal factors for light vehicles is available here.

The table below shows the Federal Reserve seasonal factors for monthly motor vehicle sales. For cars and light trucks, these are essentially the same seasonal factors that are available from the BEA extended through December 2024. For completed calendar years, the seasonal factors posted by the BEA may vary slightly from the factors posted here, reflecting small adjustments to align annual totals of the seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted data. The extended projections of the seasonal factors are prone to larger revisions each year than are the seasonal factor projections for months closer to the end of the data sample. A comma-delimited text file containing the monthly seasonal factors is available for download here (CSV).

Monthly Seasonal Factors for Motor Vehicle Sales

	Domestic Autos	Foreign Autos	Domestic Light Trucks	Foreign Light Trucks	Domestic Heavy Trucks	Foreign Heavy Trucks
Jan-2017	79.99	76.54	78.33	80.74	85.01	55.71
Feb-2017	95.22	87.09	90.84	90.80	87.37	74.52
Mar-2017	116.98	113.36	107.85	111.60	108.49	107.77
Apr-2017	104.33	105.79	100.13	96.66	95.68	92.56
May-2017	112.88	110.05	106.78	105.47	103.07	110.75
Jun-2017	107.15	108.54	104.56	101.31	106.69	127.19
Jul-2017	99.45	105.81	99.22	102.04	96.16	91.31
Aug-2017	105.10	106.25	106.15	109.31	105.42	111.63
Sep-2017	99.98	98.34	103.03	101.89	100.13	95.28
Oct-2017	86.46	88.45	91.13	90.35	103.64	91.15
Nov-2017	90.65	92.50	97.06	96.19	94.45	91.83
Dec-2017	100.34	106.10	114.02	112.19	110.77	146.63
Jan-2018	81.98	77.57	80.58	82.60	88.38	60.22
Feb-2018	94.93	87.07	90.85	91.13	87.31	75.23
Mar-2018	122.05	117.78	111.83	116.72	105.64	103.69
Apr-2018	97.37	100.54	94.08	90.26	98.14	94.93
May-2018	116.42	112.74	110.37	108.35	102.59	111.67
Jun-2018	111.15	113.50	107.60	106.92	104.09	121.67
Jul-2018	95.72	102.12	96.06	97.61	97.82	90.75
Aug-2018	103.90	107.03	105.10	109.03	104.91	116.43
Sep-2018	98.15	95.35	100.77	98.96	97.82	91.28
Oct-2018	88.60	89.47	93.76	92.31	107.65	95.87
Nov-2018	90.65	92.79	96.64	96.02	93.57	89.91
Dec-2018	100.65	104.44	114.47	111.63	111.92	144.66
Jan-2019	82.90	77.43	80.99	82.04	88.09	61.72
Feb-2019	94.70	87.10	90.92	91.56	87.41	75.71
Mar-2019	117.92	116.20	108.20	114.48	102.77	100.54
Apr-2019	100.48	102.82	97.45	93.12	100.73	96.38
May-2019	115.22	114.53	109.34	109.25	102.24	115.48
Jun-2019	108.81	111.34	104.96	104.11	101.22	115.04
Jul-2019	97.98	103.90	98.54	99.89	101.13	95.40
Aug-2019	114.25	112.95	115.75	116.93	101.66	110.81
Sep-2019	87.30	88.27	89.01	89.45	100.93	94.17
Oct-2019	91.40	90.51	97.06	93.88	107.13	96.33
Nov-2019	94.33	95.45	99.43	100.34	91.51	85.67
Dec-2019	96.90	100.22	111.10	105.95	114.36	146.54
Jan-2020	82.24	78.05	80.16	82.81	87.90	64.98
Feb-2020	101.19	91.99	96.86	98.84	89.20	76.53
Mar-2020	110.82	109.42	102.67	106.79	106.12	101.56
Apr-2020	103.38	104.75	100.43	94.91	101.36	99.98
May-2020	116.70	117.63	109.60	112.55	96.04	105.40
Jun-2020	104.59	108.17	101.88	100.26	106.72	121.27
Jul-2020	100.17	106.91	100.62	101.75	100.09	98.54
Aug-2020	103.04	105.92	102.70	107.52	99.22	105.47
Sep-2020	96.95	92.78	100.81	97.23	104.13	97.22
Oct-2020	94.69	94.23	99.60	97.91	104.09	94.05
Nov-2020	86.43	87.31	91.09	90.28	91.90	83.17
Dec-2020	105.79	107.92	121.10	116.81	118.50	154.93
Jan-2021	80.88	75.95	78.16	80.36	82.71	60.52
Feb-2021	94.26	87.33	90.86	92.68	87.45	76.47
Mar-2021	113.30	111.43	105.78	109.88	110.19	108.08
Apr-2021	103.24	106.12	100.18	95.41	100.15	98.22
May-2021	117.61	117.30	110.85	112.96	96.93	104.95
Jun-2021	104.12	108.80	101.36	100.18	106.57	123.04
Jul-2021	104.81	111.37	103.95	106.12	97.03	94.13
Aug-2021	99.09	102.11	99.59	102.95	100.93	107.33
Sep-2021	97.10	92.32	100.93	96.31	104.73	99.04
Oct-2021	91.61	92.14	96.27	95.68	101.47	89.84
Nov-2021	89.00	87.95	94.17	92.41	94.29	84.24
Dec-2021	102.70	105.39	116.99	113.17	118.25	157.58
Jan-2022	81.19	75.98	78.06	80.28	83.68	61.42
Feb-2022	94.05	87.52	90.82	93.15	87.22	77.27
Mar-2022	116.89	113.63	109.58	112.55	109.83	109.22
Apr-2022	107.36	110.34	103.31	100.52	97.82	93.45
May-2022	109.64	111.73	104.29	105.57	99.03	107.00
Jun-2022	107.55	111.28	104.82	102.26	106.80	125.77
Jul-2022	101.54	109.87	100.33	103.83	94.17	90.68
Aug-2022	101.57	103.81	102.38	105.59	104.33	114.13
Sep-2022	96.67	92.86	100.61	96.59	103.25	98.20
Oct-2022	89.64	89.28	93.89	92.73	102.93	88.44
Nov-2022	91.02	88.55	96.81	94.39	94.40	85.08
Dec-2022	103.20	104.80	117.39	113.15	114.63	146.75
Jan-2023	81.53	76.01	78.04	80.26	85.57	64.34
Feb-2023	93.97	87.87	90.94	93.46	87.08	78.63
Mar-2023	115.71	115.04	108.57	112.98	109.99	113.69
Apr-2023	105.52	107.77	101.04	97.73	95.53	87.19
May-2023	112.06	113.95	107.37	108.67	103.00	113.94
Jun-2023	107.16	112.79	104.37	102.66	105.37	124.03
Jul-2023	99.54	107.31	97.88	100.84	95.00	90.29
Aug-2023	105.02	105.65	105.85	107.71	103.42	115.24
Sep-2023	100.21	96.02	103.67	101.41	100.40	94.89
Oct-2023	86.07	85.62	91.17	88.78	105.28	89.29
Nov-2023	91.17	87.73	96.66	93.05	94.96	86.52
Dec-2023	99.83	102.56	113.31	110.47	111.08	138.30
Jan-2024	83.61	77.25	80.23	82.56	89.00	69.46
Feb-2024	96.86	89.66	94.18	95.68	90.76	82.98
Mar-2024	117.32	117.83	108.71	115.97	103.79	104.29
Apr-2024	101.86	104.26	98.27	93.93	100.92	90.87
May-2024	114.47	117.20	110.04	111.10	102.50	118.80
Jun-2024	108.96	114.10	105.01	104.82	100.46	113.25
Jul-2024	97.99	105.37	97.69	99.40	100.44	96.90
Aug-2024	114.77	112.97	115.52	115.91	99.91	113.26
Sep-2024	86.91	86.78	89.27	89.18	100.31	94.05
Oct-2024	90.83	88.01	96.99	92.92	108.92	94.31
Nov-2024	94.35	91.46	99.02	97.62	91.77	81.84
Dec-2024	96.42	97.70	110.37	104.42	114.56	139.09

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