Federal Reserve Seasonal Factors for Motor Vehicle Sales

Release Date: July 31, 2020

The Federal Reserve Board has re-estimated seasonal factors for new motor vehicle sales, using data through February 2020. These factors are estimated once per year using X13-ARIMA. The factors will be revised again in the summer of 2021.

The Federal Reserve Board provides seasonal factors for sales of cars and light trucks to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) for use in the National Income and Product Accounts. The BEA has posted on their website seasonal factors for motor vehicle sales from January 1967 (January 1976 for foreign light trucks) through June 2021. These factors are available for download here. A Technical Q&A with details on the calculation of the seasonal factors for light vehicles is available here.

The table below shows the Federal Reserve seasonal factors for monthly motor vehicle sales. For cars and light trucks, these are essentially the same seasonal factors that are available from the BEA extended through December 2022. For completed calendar years, the seasonal factors posted by the BEA may vary slightly from the factors posted here, reflecting small adjustments to align annual totals of the seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted data. The extended projections of the seasonal factors are prone to larger revisions each year than are the seasonal factor projections for months closer to the end of the data sample. A comma-delimited text file containing the monthly seasonal factors is available for download here (CSV).

Monthly Seasonal Factors for Motor Vehicle Sales

 
 
Domestic
Autos
Foreign
Autos
Domestic
Light Trucks
Foreign
Light Trucks
Domestic
Heavy Trucks
Foreign
Heavy Trucks
Jan-2015  85.24  80.89  83.35  87.98  85.17  56.33
Feb-2015  95.88  86.36  90.96  90.71  86.84  70.41
Mar-2015 112.06 108.70 102.32 105.73 105.12  95.81
Apr-2015 103.81 103.40  99.86  94.55 101.59 104.75
May-2015 117.46 113.28 109.98 107.84  96.66 104.52
Jun-2015 104.02 103.47 102.04  97.17 108.40 126.79
Jul-2015  99.93 106.39 102.11 103.35 101.90 107.87
Aug-2015 103.81 107.28 103.74 111.02 100.82  99.87
Sep-2015  96.01  95.42  98.90  95.86 102.85  95.74
Oct-2015  95.03  96.96  99.81 100.62 103.40  95.06
Nov-2015  84.80  91.47  91.25  92.73  90.98  87.75
Dec-2015 106.73 110.95 120.94 118.90 117.51 159.86
Jan-2016  79.78  76.75  78.47  81.53  81.76  52.78
Feb-2016  95.44  85.99  90.71  90.82  90.54  74.34
Mar-2016 117.76 111.49 108.23 110.54 108.03 101.49
Apr-2016 106.59 107.71 102.25  98.76  98.09  99.91
May-2016 109.84 107.00 104.01 100.53 100.06 103.65
Jun-2016 106.91 105.20 104.90  99.93 109.50 130.96
Jul-2016 101.47 108.40 102.49 105.35  96.17  95.73
Aug-2016 101.79 105.24 102.90 108.10 107.34 110.15
Sep-2016  96.60  96.26  99.32  96.12 102.84  98.64
Oct-2016  90.82  93.24  94.46  96.02 101.33  89.59
Nov-2016  90.07  95.05  96.63  97.62  93.18  90.95
Dec-2016 104.90 109.74 118.05 116.39 113.35 157.11
Jan-2017  79.68  76.61  78.52  81.25  83.83  52.31
Feb-2017  94.76  85.52  90.56  90.83  85.88  72.06
Mar-2017 116.55 111.95 107.53 110.61 107.17 105.19
Apr-2017 103.39 104.49  99.83  96.04  95.88  95.08
May-2017 112.37 108.88 106.36 103.37 103.74 109.15
Jun-2017 106.78 106.71 104.61 100.10 108.32 130.02
Jul-2017  99.36 105.44 100.24 102.26  97.80  91.53
Aug-2017 104.76 106.85 106.28 110.27 107.65 111.64
Sep-2017 100.98  99.91 102.36 101.09 100.81  95.56
Oct-2017  87.58  90.42  91.51  91.46 103.29  91.90
Nov-2017  90.80  95.24  97.25  98.00  93.50  92.99
Dec-2017 102.44 108.32 114.35 114.18 109.37 150.80
Jan-2018  81.41  77.53  80.47  83.13  86.56  55.07
Feb-2018  94.25  85.06  90.43  90.97  85.66  71.88
Mar-2018 121.51 115.61 111.72 115.62 103.76  99.88
Apr-2018  95.94  99.05  93.72  89.20  98.56  99.00
May-2018 115.80 110.91 109.73 106.00 103.50 109.60
Jun-2018 110.99 110.96 107.50 105.09 105.61 124.59
Jul-2018  95.34 101.72  96.99  96.99 100.05  91.72
Aug-2018 103.74 107.66 105.54 110.33 107.68 115.75
Sep-2018  99.31  97.48 100.34  98.66  99.12  90.91
Oct-2018  90.17  92.14  93.81  93.75 106.89  97.55
Nov-2018  90.91  96.55  97.20  98.28  92.31  92.42
Dec-2018 103.09 107.28 114.69 114.71 110.32 148.85
Jan-2019  82.02  77.36  81.20  82.91  86.01  55.30
Feb-2019  93.90  84.63  90.33  91.07  85.50  71.67
Mar-2019 117.63 113.54 108.13 112.71 100.48  95.29
Apr-2019  98.39 100.70  96.34  90.95 101.16 102.45
May-2019 114.99 112.06 108.88 106.68 103.18 112.53
Jun-2019 108.46 108.39 105.12 102.44 103.14 117.76
Jul-2019  97.50 103.17  99.18  99.08 103.69  96.69
Aug-2019 113.84 114.00 115.86 117.94 104.73 109.76
Sep-2019  88.43  90.65  89.40  89.86 102.73  93.68
Oct-2019  93.22  93.90  97.06  95.89 106.48  98.99
Nov-2019  94.83 100.28 100.08 103.33  89.79  88.25
Dec-2019  99.52 103.64 111.59 109.70 112.65 152.95
Jan-2020  81.47  78.03  80.28  83.19  85.32  56.79
Feb-2020 100.33  88.70  95.89  97.99  86.87  71.59
Mar-2020 110.24 106.68 102.51 104.47 103.62  95.30
Apr-2020 100.93 101.86  98.89  93.03 101.99 107.64
May-2020 116.62 114.54 109.41 109.42  96.86 101.57
Jun-2020 103.93 104.95 101.79  97.52 109.06 125.15
Jul-2020  99.72 105.70 101.56 101.35 103.09 100.41
Aug-2020 102.38 106.92 103.86 109.43 102.72 103.22
Sep-2020  98.26  95.93  99.67  96.61 106.20  97.50
Oct-2020  97.22  98.42 100.11 100.77 103.19  96.93
Nov-2020  86.78  92.97  92.25  93.96  90.23  85.80
Dec-2020 109.29 111.98 121.29 121.03 116.56 164.01
Jan-2021  79.90  75.97  78.47  81.11  79.72  51.35
Feb-2021  93.27  83.87  90.03  91.52  85.00  70.86
Mar-2021 112.91 108.03 105.13 107.23 106.98 100.45
Apr-2021 100.53 102.73  98.56  92.85 100.76 107.89
May-2021 117.19 113.81 110.32 109.09  97.92  99.87
Jun-2021 103.68 105.02 101.26  97.64 109.16 127.91
Jul-2021 104.23 109.69 105.27 105.76 100.29  95.73
Aug-2021  97.98 103.39 100.57 104.05 105.17 105.46
Sep-2021  98.57  95.81 100.13  96.87 107.33  98.99
Oct-2021  94.45  97.10  96.86  98.59 100.40  92.75
Nov-2021  89.25  94.55  95.10  96.19  92.23  87.92
Dec-2021 106.61 109.90 117.84 118.42 115.91 168.01
Jan-2022  80.12  75.95  78.40  81.05  80.47  50.73
Feb-2022  93.05  83.62  89.93  91.71  84.51  70.99
Mar-2022 116.42 109.62 108.76 109.95 106.43 101.07
Apr-2022 104.33 106.33 101.25  97.31  98.21 103.65
May-2022 109.18 108.30 103.88 101.51 100.28 101.81
Jun-2022 106.97 106.88 104.59  99.64 109.83 130.82
Jul-2022 101.05 108.04 101.86 103.26  97.54  92.00
Aug-2022 100.35 105.03 103.01 106.67 109.03 111.89
Sep-2022  98.42  96.82  99.99  96.89 106.01  98.53
Oct-2022  92.49  94.71  94.71  96.26 101.72  91.23
Nov-2022  91.31  95.89  97.46  98.79  92.05  89.58
Dec-2022 107.23 109.95 118.39 118.12 112.10 157.45
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Last Update: July 31, 2020