Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS)
September 2021
Estimating Hysteresis Effects
Francesco Furlanetto, Antoine Lepetit, Ørjan Robstad, Juan Rubio-Ramírez, Pål Ulvedal
Abstract:
In this paper we identify demand shocks that can have a permanent effect on output through hysteresis effects. We call these shocks permanent demand shocks. They are found to be quantitatively important in the United States, in particular when the Great Recession is included in the sample. Recessions driven by permanent demand shocks lead to a permanent decline in employment and investment, while output per worker is largely unaffected. We find strong evidence that hysteresis transmits through a rise in long-term unemployment and a decline in labor force participation and disproportionately affects the least productive workers.
Accessible materials (.zip)
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2021.059
PDF: Full Paper
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