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Gender Gaps in the Labor Market Widen Every Summer, Accessible Data
Figure 1. The summer drop in prime-age female labor force participation
The chart shows the labor force participation rate among individuals aged 25 to 54, separately by sex, from 2013 through 2019. The series are at monthly frequency and use non–seasonally adjusted data, which make their seasonal patterns apparent. Grey shading highlights the months of June, July, and August. For women, labor force participation is typically lower during these summer months than in other months. The magnitude of these summer declines is somewhat difficult to discern given month-to-month volatility in this series, but it is typically on the order of 0.5 percentage point. For men, labor force participation exhibits no obvious seasonal pattern. Both participation rates, especially the rate among women, trend upwards during the period shown.
Note: Non–seasonally adjusted labor force participation rates among individuals aged 25–54, normalized to zero in December 2019. Shaded regions correspond to the months of June, July, and August.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Force Statistics.
Figure 2. Seasonal shifts in labor force status, by sex
The chart shows estimated seasonal shifts in labor force status among individuals aged 25 to 49 over the years 1989 to 2019. There are two panels: one for women and one for men. Each panel has three series, corresponding to employment, unemployment, and non-participation in the labor force. The share of women who are employed falls by 1.1 percentage points between May and July, driven in equal parts by increased unemployment and increased non-participation. The employment rate then rebounds from July and September, with decreases in both unemployment and non-participation. Women experience more modest shifts in labor market status over the rest of the year, with elevated employment in the autumn months and lower employment in the winter months. By contrast, the share of men who are employed changes only slightly during the summer months, rising by about 0.1 percentage point between May and July, with little change in either unemployment or non-participation. Men experience a much larger decline in employment during the winter months, driven by a sharp rise in unemployment.
Estimated seasonal changes in employment, unemployment, and non-participation as shares of the population aged 25–49, relative to the month of May. Vertical bars show 95 percent confidence intervals.
Source: Current Population Survey via IPUMS (Flood et al., 2021) and authors’ calculations.
Figure 3. Seasonal shifts in female employment, by timing of school closures
The chart shows estimated seasonal shifts in the employment-to-population rate among women aged 25–49, separately in states with school closures beginning earlier versus later in the summer. In early-closure states, female employment falls by about 1.0 percentage point between May and June, falls a bit further in July, and then rebounds between July and September. In late-closure states, female employment is little changed between May and June, then falls by about 0.7 percentage point in July and a bit further in August before rebounding in September. In both groups of states, female employment is slightly elevated in the autumn months and slightly lower in the winter months.
Note: Estimated seasonal changes in the female employment-to-population rate in states where K–12 school closures are mostly in effect by mid-June or mostly in effect only as of mid-July. Vertical bars show 95 percent confidence intervals.
Source: Current Population Survey via IPUMS (Flood et al., 2021) and authors’ calculations.
Figure 4. Seasonal shifts in female employment, by age of youngest child
The chart shows estimated seasonal shifts in the employment-to-population rate among four groups of women: women without children under 18 residing in the household, mothers whose youngest child is aged 0 to 5, mothers whose youngest child is aged 6 to 12, and mothers whose youngest child is aged 13 to 17. For mothers whose youngest child is aged 6 to 12, the employment rate falls by 2.3 percentage points between May and July. The remaining three groups show smaller declines in employment during these months, ranging from 0.6 percentage point to 1.2 percentage points. All four groups experience a sharp rebound in employment between July and September, followed by modestly elevated employment in the autumn months and modestly lower employment in the winter months.
Note: Estimated seasonal changes in the female employment-to-population rate. Parental status is based on own biological, adopted, or step-children residing in the same household. Vertical bars show 95 percent confidence intervals.
Source: Current Population Survey via IPUMS (Flood et al., 2021) and authors’ calculations.
Figure 5. Seasonal shifts in weekly earnings, by sex
The chart shows estimated seasonal shifts in weekly earnings among individuals aged 25 to 49, separately by sex. Women’s weekly earnings are depressed throughout the summer, declining by about $28 between May and July. Men’s weekly earnings are little changed between May and June, but exhibit more muted declines in July and August. On average, women’s weekly earnings are 3.3 percent lower during the summer months than in May, about five times the decline experienced by men.
Note: Estimated seasonal changes in weekly earnings. Vertical bars show 95 percent confidence intervals.
Source: Current Population Survey via IPUMS (Flood et al., 2021) and authors’ calculations.