Accessible Version

Long-Run Effects on Chinese GDP from U.S.-China Tariff Hikes Accessible Data

Figure 1a: U.S. and Chinese Bilateral Sectoral Import Tariff Changes

U.S. Total and Sectoral Tariffs on Imports from China

Sector Baseline Tariffs Implemented Tariffs Proposed Tariffs
Total 2.536311 15.85554 27.64294
Agriculture 0.770309 16.24676 25.77031
Mining 0.295669 25.01325 25.29567
Food 2.9631 26.12019 27.9631
Textile 10.98087 15.60892 35.98087
Wood 2.846681 19.38211 27.84668
Paper 0.001044 14.99991 25.00104
Petroleum 1.083434 22.90671 26.08344
Chemicals 2.245065 20.356 27.24507
Plastic 3.536635 18.54746 28.53663
Minerals 4.815741 20.61001 29.81574
Basic metals 2.759572 26.17762 26.17762
Metal products 2.137408 19.14184 26.63269
Machinery nec 1.139169 19.77078 26.19489
Office 0.09548 10.78192 25.09548
Electrical 1.915757 25.33072 26.91576
Communication 0.287827 11.56064 26.02464
Medical 1.040153 18.88974 26.04015
Auto 0.892722 25.2034 25.89272
Other transport 0.584063 5.022069 25.58406
Other 1.372372 13.8294 26.37237

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Figure 1b: U.S. and Chinese Bilateral Sectoral Import Tariff Changes

Chinese Total and Sectoral Tariffs on Imports from the U.S.

Sector Baseline Tariffs Implemented Tariffs Proposed Tariffs
Total 5.921574 19.90112 26.64535
Agriculture 4.158258 27.7371 29.10693
Mining 0.546277 19.56307 21.62057
Food 9.029158 29.75322 29.93249
Textile 9.068884 24.07017 24.38868
Wood 0.097089 20.29155 22.37222
Paper 1.083279 16.03937 16.03968
Petroleum 2.232013 26.71617 27.19754
Chemicals 5.730885 16.23711 25.05069
Plastic 7.838351 22.35287 24.0058
Minerals 10.31437 21.96014 21.9699
Basic metals 1.487559 22.6052 22.62596
Metal products 9.402736 26.68896 27.181
Machinery nec 4.612501 15.9422 22.31198
Office 1.345105 19.41142 19.65327
Electrical 4.995356 22.35772 22.35932
Communication 0.433552 5.335185 24.03807
Medical 3.37281 13.98576 16.09976
Auto 22.53654 45.52531 46.14839
Other transport 2.642874 2.845734 27.36251
Other 11.66603 24.12033 24.12314

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Figure 2: Spillovers to Other Countries (% GDP)

Country Spillovers
Mexico 0.235622
India 0.099126
Ireland 0.043589
Hungary 0.039523
Canada 0.029684
Denmark 0.026551
Germany 0.026536
Japan 0.02214
Austria 0.021397
Indonesia 0.017247
France 0.017171
Italy 0.016808
Greece 0.016673
Finland 0.014249
Spain 0.014045
UK 0.01377
Norway 0.01357
Sweden 0.013537
ROW 0.01037
Turkey 0.007731
Netherlands 0.006382
Korea 0.00569
Argentina 0.002194
Portugal 0.001759
Australia -0.00759
Brazil -0.00818
New Zealand -0.00908
Chile -0.00913
South Africa -0.01337

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Last Update: July 15, 2019