Monetary Policy Report Supplement
Monetary Policy Rules and Shortfalls from Maximum Employment: Figure B - Supplement - February 2021
Real-time estimates of the neutral real interest rate and the unemployment rate in the longer run
Percent
| Quarter | Estimates of $$ r_t^{LR} $$ | Estimates of $$ u_t^{LR} $$ |
|---|---|---|
| 2006:Q1 | 4.9 | 2.42 |
| 2006:Q2 | 4.9 | 2.47 |
| 2006:Q3 | 4.9 | 2.43 |
| 2006:Q4 | 4.88 | 2.44 |
| 2007:Q1 | 4.82 | 2.56 |
| 2007:Q2 | 4.8 | 2.54 |
| 2007:Q3 | 4.8 | 2.46 |
| 2007:Q4 | 4.8 | 2.38 |
| 2008:Q1 | 4.8 | 2.32 |
| 2008:Q2 | 4.89 | 2.3 |
| 2008:Q3 | 5.01 | 2.3 |
| 2008:Q4 | 5.18 | 2.22 |
| 2009:Q1 | 5.42 | 1.98 |
| 2009:Q2 | 5.59 | 1.96 |
| 2009:Q3 | 5.71 | 2.04 |
| 2009:Q4 | 5.84 | 2.08 |
| 2010:Q1 | 5.96 | 2.02 |
| 2010:Q2 | 5.97 | 1.94 |
| 2010:Q3 | 5.93 | 1.86 |
| 2010:Q4 | 5.84 | 1.8 |
| 2011:Q1 | 5.66 | 1.8 |
| 2011:Q2 | 5.71 | 1.74 |
| 2011:Q3 | 5.89 | 1.66 |
| 2011:Q4 | 5.96 | 1.58 |
| 2012:Q1 | 5.84 | 1.52 |
| 2012:Q2 | 5.8 | 1.5 |
| 2012:Q3 | 5.8 | 1.5 |
| 2012:Q4 | 5.76 | 1.5 |
| 2013:Q1 | 5.64 | 1.5 |
| 2013:Q2 | 5.6 | 1.5 |
| 2013:Q3 | 5.6 | 1.5 |
| 2013:Q4 | 5.54 | 1.5 |
| 2014:Q1 | 5.36 | 1.5 |
| 2014:Q2 | 5.33 | 1.44 |
| 2014:Q3 | 5.37 | 1.36 |
| 2014:Q4 | 5.34 | 1.3 |
| 2015:Q1 | 5.16 | 1.3 |
| 2015:Q2 | 5.07 | 1.21 |
| 2015:Q3 | 5.03 | 1.09 |
| 2015:Q4 | 4.98 | 0.98 |
| 2016:Q1 | 4.92 | 0.92 |
| 2016:Q2 | 4.87 | 0.87 |
| 2016:Q3 | 4.83 | 0.83 |
| 2016:Q4 | 4.78 | 0.8 |
| 2017:Q1 | 4.72 | 0.8 |
| 2017:Q2 | 4.67 | 0.8 |
| 2017:Q3 | 4.63 | 0.8 |
| 2017:Q4 | 4.58 | 0.82 |
| 2018:Q1 | 4.52 | 0.88 |
| 2018:Q2 | 4.47 | 0.9 |
| 2018:Q3 | 4.43 | 0.9 |
| 2018:Q4 | 4.4 | 0.86 |
| 2019:Q1 | 4.34 | 0.74 |
| 2019:Q2 | 4.26 | 0.58 |
| 2019:Q3 | 4.16 | 0.4 |
| 2019:Q4 | 4.1 | 0.25 |
| 2020:Q1 | 4.14 | 0.13 |
| 2020:Q2 | 4.19 | -0.03 |
| 2020:Q3 | 4.25 | -0.22 |
| 2020:Q4 | 4.29 | -0.35 |
Note: The quarterly real-time estimates of the neutral real interest rate and the unemployment rate in the longer run are interpolations of biannual consensus projections 6 to 10 years ahead from Blue Chip Economic Indicators. The real-time estimates for the longer-run neutral real interest rate equals the interpolated consensus projection for the 3-month Treasury bill rate deflated by the corresponding projected annual change in the price index for gross domestic product.
Source: Wolters Kluwer, Blue Chip Economic Indicators; Federal Reserve Board.
Monetary Policy Rules, the Effective Lower Bound, and the Economic Recovery: Figure B - Supplement - July 2021
Real-time estimates of the neutral real interest rate and the unemployment rate in the longer run
Percent
| Quarter | Estimates of $$ r_t^{LR} $$ | Estimates of $$ u_t^{LR} $$ |
|---|---|---|
| 2006:Q1 | 4.9 | 2.42 |
| 2006:Q2 | 4.9 | 2.47 |
| 2006:Q3 | 4.9 | 2.43 |
| 2006:Q4 | 4.88 | 2.44 |
| 2007:Q1 | 4.82 | 2.56 |
| 2007:Q2 | 4.8 | 2.54 |
| 2007:Q3 | 4.8 | 2.46 |
| 2007:Q4 | 4.8 | 2.38 |
| 2008:Q1 | 4.8 | 2.32 |
| 2008:Q2 | 4.89 | 2.3 |
| 2008:Q3 | 5.01 | 2.3 |
| 2008:Q4 | 5.18 | 2.22 |
| 2009:Q1 | 5.42 | 1.98 |
| 2009:Q2 | 5.59 | 1.96 |
| 2009:Q3 | 5.71 | 2.04 |
| 2009:Q4 | 5.84 | 2.08 |
| 2010:Q1 | 5.96 | 2.02 |
| 2010:Q2 | 5.97 | 1.94 |
| 2010:Q3 | 5.93 | 1.86 |
| 2010:Q4 | 5.84 | 1.8 |
| 2011:Q1 | 5.66 | 1.8 |
| 2011:Q2 | 5.71 | 1.74 |
| 2011:Q3 | 5.89 | 1.66 |
| 2011:Q4 | 5.96 | 1.58 |
| 2012:Q1 | 5.84 | 1.52 |
| 2012:Q2 | 5.8 | 1.5 |
| 2012:Q3 | 5.8 | 1.5 |
| 2012:Q4 | 5.76 | 1.5 |
| 2013:Q1 | 5.64 | 1.5 |
| 2013:Q2 | 5.6 | 1.5 |
| 2013:Q3 | 5.6 | 1.5 |
| 2013:Q4 | 5.54 | 1.5 |
| 2014:Q1 | 5.36 | 1.5 |
| 2014:Q2 | 5.33 | 1.44 |
| 2014:Q3 | 5.37 | 1.36 |
| 2014:Q4 | 5.34 | 1.3 |
| 2015:Q1 | 5.16 | 1.3 |
| 2015:Q2 | 5.07 | 1.21 |
| 2015:Q3 | 5.03 | 1.09 |
| 2015:Q4 | 4.98 | 0.98 |
| 2016:Q1 | 4.92 | 0.92 |
| 2016:Q2 | 4.87 | 0.87 |
| 2016:Q3 | 4.83 | 0.83 |
| 2016:Q4 | 4.78 | 0.8 |
| 2017:Q1 | 4.72 | 0.8 |
| 2017:Q2 | 4.67 | 0.8 |
| 2017:Q3 | 4.63 | 0.8 |
| 2017:Q4 | 4.58 | 0.82 |
| 2018:Q1 | 4.52 | 0.88 |
| 2018:Q2 | 4.47 | 0.9 |
| 2018:Q3 | 4.43 | 0.9 |
| 2018:Q4 | 4.38 | 0.86 |
| 2019:Q1 | 4.34 | 0.74 |
| 2019:Q2 | 4.26 | 0.58 |
| 2019:Q3 | 4.16 | 0.4 |
| 2019:Q4 | 4.1 | 0.25 |
| 2020:Q1 | 4.14 | 0.13 |
| 2020:Q2 | 4.19 | -0.03 |
| 2020:Q3 | 4.25 | -0.22 |
| 2020:Q4 | 4.25 | -0.33 |
| 2021:Q1 | 4.11 | -0.25 |
Note: The quarterly real-time estimates of the neutral real interest rate and the unemployment rate in the longer run are interpolations of biannual consensus projections 6 to 10 years ahead from Blue Chip Economic Indicators. The real-time estimates for the longer-run neutral real interest rate equals the interpolated consensus projection for the 3-month Treasury bill rate deflated by the corresponding projected annual change in the price index for gross domestic product.
Source: Wolters Kluwer, Blue Chip Economic Indicators; Federal Reserve Board.