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Overview of financial system vulnerabilities

Asset valuations

  • Despite declines in asset prices amid significant market volatility, valuations remain high across a range of markets including equities and residential real estate.
  • Liquidity in Treasury and equity markets was low and worsened further in April, though market functioning remained orderly.
  • Transaction-based prices for commercial properties have been flat recently, but a sizable number of borrowers will need to refinance maturing loans in the next few years.

Borrowing by businesses and households

  • Vulnerabilities from business and household debt remained moderate, as debt levels adjusted for inflation were stable.
  • The ability of businesses to service their debt generally improved even as leverage remained elevated.
  • Household debt was at modest levels relative to gross domestic product and mostly owed by borrowers with strong credit histories.
  • Auto and credit card loan delinquencies remained above pre-pandemic levels.

Leverage in the financial sector

  • The banking system remained sound and resilient, with regulatory capital ratios approaching or exceeding historical highs.
  • Fair value losses on fixed-rate assets were still sizable for some banks and continued to be sensitive to fluctuations in interest rates.
  • Broker-dealer leverage has been low, though in April heightened client demand has reportedly increased balance sheet pressures for some dealers.
  • Hedge fund leverage was at or near its highest level since 2013, though it likely decreased as hedge funds unwound some positions in early April.

Funding risks

  • Funding markets were resilient through early April’s market volatility.
  • Most domestic banks maintained high levels of liquid assets and stable funding, and their reliance on uninsured deposits remained well below the elevated levels seen in 2022 and early 2023.
  • Vulnerabilities in prime money market funds have declined somewhat in the past year as reforms for these funds went fully into effect, but other cash-management vehicles with structural vulnerabilities continued to grow.
  • Nontraditional liabilities at life insurers are at the upper end of their historical distribution.
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Survey of salient risks to the financial system

Survey respondents cited several emerging and existing events or conditions as presenting risks to the U.S. financial system and the broader global economy. For more information, see the box "Survey of Salient Risks to Financial Stability."

  Risks to global trade U.S. fiscal debt sustainability Policy uncertainty Persistent inflation Risk asset / valuations correction Treasury market functioning
Spring 2025 73% of contacts surveyed 50% of contacts surveyed 50% of contacts surveyed 41% of contacts surveyed 36% of contacts surveyed 33% of contacts surveyed
Fall 2024 33% of contacts surveyed 54% of contacts surveyed 46% of contacts surveyed 33% of contacts surveyed 29% of contacts surveyed 17% of contacts surveyed
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Figure 1.1. Nominal Treasury yields remained high

Percent, annual rate

Date 2-year 10-year
1997-01-01 6.01 6.58
1997-02-01 5.9 6.42
1997-03-01 6.22 6.69
1997-04-01 6.45 6.89
1997-05-01 6.28 6.71
1997-06-01 6.09 6.49
1997-07-01 5.89 6.22
1997-08-01 5.94 6.3
1997-09-01 5.88 6.21
1997-10-01 5.77 6.03
1997-11-01 5.71 5.88
1997-12-01 5.72 5.81
1998-01-01 5.36 5.54
1998-02-01 5.42 5.57
1998-03-01 5.56 5.65
1998-04-01 5.56 5.64
1998-05-01 5.59 5.65
1998-06-01 5.52 5.5
1998-07-01 5.46 5.46
1998-08-01 5.27 5.34
1998-09-01 4.67 4.81
1998-10-01 4.09 4.53
1998-11-01 4.54 4.83
1998-12-01 4.51 4.65
1999-01-01 4.62 4.72
1999-02-01 4.88 5
1999-03-01 5.05 5.23
1999-04-01 4.98 5.18
1999-05-01 5.25 5.54
1999-06-01 5.62 5.9
1999-07-01 5.55 5.79
1999-08-01 5.68 5.94
1999-09-01 5.66 5.92
1999-10-01 5.86 6.11
1999-11-01 5.86 6.03
1999-12-01 6.1 6.28
2000-01-01 6.44 6.66
2000-02-01 6.61 6.52
2000-03-01 6.53 6.26
2000-04-01 6.4 5.99
2000-05-01 6.81 6.44
2000-06-01 6.48 6.1
2000-07-01 6.34 6.05
2000-08-01 6.23 5.83
2000-09-01 6.08 5.8
2000-10-01 5.91 5.74
2000-11-01 5.88 5.72
2000-12-01 5.35 5.24
2001-01-01 4.76 5.16
2001-02-01 4.66 5.1
2001-03-01 4.34 4.89
2001-04-01 4.23 5.14
2001-05-01 4.26 5.39
2001-06-01 4.08 5.28
2001-07-01 4.04 5.24
2001-08-01 3.76 4.97
2001-09-01 3.12 4.73
2001-10-01 2.73 4.57
2001-11-01 2.78 4.65
2001-12-01 3.11 5.09
2002-01-01 3.03 5.04
2002-02-01 3.02 4.91
2002-03-01 3.56 5.28
2002-04-01 3.42 5.21
2002-05-01 3.26 5.16
2002-06-01 2.99 4.93
2002-07-01 2.56 4.65
2002-08-01 2.13 4.26
2002-09-01 2 3.87
2002-10-01 1.91 3.94
2002-11-01 1.92 4.05
2002-12-01 1.84 4.03
2003-01-01 1.74 4.05
2003-02-01 1.63 3.9
2003-03-01 1.57 3.81
2003-04-01 1.62 3.96
2003-05-01 1.42 3.57
2003-06-01 1.23 3.33
2003-07-01 1.47 3.98
2003-08-01 1.86 4.45
2003-09-01 1.71 4.27
2003-10-01 1.75 4.29
2003-11-01 1.93 4.3
2003-12-01 1.91 4.27
2004-01-01 1.76 4.15
2004-02-01 1.74 4.08
2004-03-01 1.58 3.83
2004-04-01 2.07 4.35
2004-05-01 2.53 4.72
2004-06-01 2.76 4.73
2004-07-01 2.64 4.5
2004-08-01 2.51 4.28
2004-09-01 2.53 4.13
2004-10-01 2.58 4.1
2004-11-01 2.85 4.19
2004-12-01 3.01 4.23
2005-01-01 3.22 4.22
2005-02-01 3.38 4.17
2005-03-01 3.73 4.5
2005-04-01 3.65 4.34
2005-05-01 3.64 4.14
2005-06-01 3.64 4
2005-07-01 3.87 4.18
2005-08-01 4.04 4.26
2005-09-01 3.95 4.2
2005-10-01 4.27 4.46
2005-11-01 4.42 4.54
2005-12-01 4.4 4.47
2006-01-01 4.4 4.42
2006-02-01 4.67 4.57
2006-03-01 4.73 4.72
2006-04-01 4.89 4.99
2006-05-01 4.97 5.11
2006-06-01 5.12 5.11
2006-07-01 5.12 5.09
2006-08-01 4.9 4.88
2006-09-01 4.77 4.72
2006-10-01 4.8 4.73
2006-11-01 4.74 4.6
2006-12-01 4.67 4.56
2007-01-01 4.88 4.76
2007-02-01 4.85 4.72
2007-03-01 4.57 4.56
2007-04-01 4.67 4.69
2007-05-01 4.77 4.75
2007-06-01 4.98 5.1
2007-07-01 4.82 5
2007-08-01 4.31 4.67
2007-09-01 4.01 4.52
2007-10-01 3.97 4.53
2007-11-01 3.34 4.15
2007-12-01 3.12 4.1
2008-01-01 2.48 3.74
2008-02-01 1.97 3.74
2008-03-01 1.62 3.51
2008-04-01 2.05 3.68
2008-05-01 2.45 3.88
2008-06-01 2.77 4.1
2008-07-01 2.57 4.01
2008-08-01 2.42 3.89
2008-09-01 2.08 3.69
2008-10-01 1.61 3.81
2008-11-01 1.21 3.53
2008-12-01 0.82 2.42
2009-01-01 0.81 2.52
2009-02-01 0.98 2.87
2009-03-01 0.93 2.82
2009-04-01 0.93 2.93
2009-05-01 0.93 3.29
2009-06-01 1.18 3.72
2009-07-01 1.02 3.56
2009-08-01 1.12 3.59
2009-09-01 0.96 3.4
2009-10-01 0.95 3.39
2009-11-01 0.8 3.4
2009-12-01 0.87 3.59
2010-01-01 0.93 3.73
2010-02-01 0.86 3.69
2010-03-01 0.96 3.73
2010-04-01 1.06 3.85
2010-05-01 0.83 3.42
2010-06-01 0.72 3.2
2010-07-01 0.62 3.01
2010-08-01 0.52 2.7
2010-09-01 0.48 2.65
2010-10-01 0.38 2.54
2010-11-01 0.45 2.76
2010-12-01 0.62 3.29
2011-01-01 0.61 3.39
2011-02-01 0.77 3.58
2011-03-01 0.7 3.41
2011-04-01 0.73 3.46
2011-05-01 0.56 3.17
2011-06-01 0.41 3
2011-07-01 0.41 3
2011-08-01 0.23 2.3
2011-09-01 0.21 1.98
2011-10-01 0.28 2.15
2011-11-01 0.25 2.01
2011-12-01 0.26 1.98
2012-01-01 0.24 1.97
2012-02-01 0.28 1.97
2012-03-01 0.34 2.17
2012-04-01 0.29 2.05
2012-05-01 0.29 1.8
2012-06-01 0.29 1.62
2012-07-01 0.25 1.53
2012-08-01 0.27 1.68
2012-09-01 0.26 1.72
2012-10-01 0.28 1.75
2012-11-01 0.27 1.65
2012-12-01 0.26 1.72
2013-01-01 0.27 1.91
2013-02-01 0.27 1.98
2013-03-01 0.26 1.96
2013-04-01 0.23 1.76
2013-05-01 0.25 1.93
2013-06-01 0.33 2.3
2013-07-01 0.34 2.58
2013-08-01 0.36 2.74
2013-09-01 0.4 2.81
2013-10-01 0.34 2.62
2013-11-01 0.3 2.72
2013-12-01 0.34 2.9
2014-01-01 0.39 2.86
2014-02-01 0.33 2.71
2014-03-01 0.4 2.72
2014-04-01 0.42 2.71
2014-05-01 0.39 2.56
2014-06-01 0.45 2.6
2014-07-01 0.51 2.54
2014-08-01 0.47 2.42
2014-09-01 0.57 2.53
2014-10-01 0.45 2.3
2014-11-01 0.53 2.33
2014-12-01 0.64 2.21
2015-01-01 0.55 1.88
2015-02-01 0.62 1.98
2015-03-01 0.64 2.04
2015-04-01 0.54 1.94
2015-05-01 0.61 2.2
2015-06-01 0.69 2.36
2015-07-01 0.67 2.32
2015-08-01 0.7 2.17
2015-09-01 0.71 2.17
2015-10-01 0.64 2.07
2015-11-01 0.88 2.26
2015-12-01 0.98 2.24
2016-01-01 0.9 2.09
2016-02-01 0.73 1.78
2016-03-01 0.88 1.89
2016-04-01 0.77 1.81
2016-05-01 0.82 1.81
2016-06-01 0.73 1.64
2016-07-01 0.67 1.5
2016-08-01 0.74 1.56
2016-09-01 0.77 1.63
2016-10-01 0.84 1.76
2016-11-01 0.98 2.14
2016-12-01 1.2 2.49
2017-01-01 1.21 2.43
2017-02-01 1.2 2.42
2017-03-01 1.31 2.48
2017-04-01 1.24 2.3
2017-05-01 1.3 2.3
2017-06-01 1.34 2.19
2017-07-01 1.37 2.32
2017-08-01 1.34 2.21
2017-09-01 1.38 2.2
2017-10-01 1.55 2.36
2017-11-01 1.7 2.35
2017-12-01 1.84 2.4
2018-01-01 2.03 2.58
2018-02-01 2.18 2.86
2018-03-01 2.28 2.84
2018-04-01 2.38 2.87
2018-05-01 2.51 2.98
2018-06-01 2.53 2.91
2018-07-01 2.61 2.89
2018-08-01 2.64 2.89
2018-09-01 2.77 3
2018-10-01 2.86 3.15
2018-11-01 2.86 3.12
2018-12-01 2.68 2.83
2019-01-01 2.54 2.71
2019-02-01 2.5 2.68
2019-03-01 2.41 2.57
2019-04-01 2.34 2.53
2019-05-01 2.21 2.4
2019-06-01 1.81 2.07
2019-07-01 1.84 2.06
2019-08-01 1.57 1.63
2019-09-01 1.65 1.7
2019-10-01 1.55 1.71
2019-11-01 1.61 1.81
2019-12-01 1.61 1.86
2020-01-01 1.52 1.76
2020-02-01 1.33 1.5
2020-03-01 0.45 0.87
2020-04-01 0.22 0.66
2020-05-01 0.17 0.67
2020-06-01 0.19 0.73
2020-07-01 0.15 0.62
2020-08-01 0.14 0.65
2020-09-01 0.13 0.68
2020-10-01 0.15 0.79
2020-11-01 0.17 0.87
2020-12-01 0.14 0.93
2021-01-01 0.13 1.08
2021-02-01 0.12 1.26
2021-03-01 0.15 1.61
2021-04-01 0.16 1.64
2021-05-01 0.16 1.62
2021-06-01 0.2 1.52
2021-07-01 0.22 1.32
2021-08-01 0.22 1.28
2021-09-01 0.24 1.37
2021-10-01 0.39 1.58
2021-11-01 0.51 1.56
2021-12-01 0.68 1.47
2022-01-01 0.98 1.76
2022-02-01 1.44 1.93
2022-03-01 1.91 2.13
2022-04-01 2.54 2.75
2022-05-01 2.62 2.9
2022-06-01 3 3.14
2022-07-01 3.04 2.9
2022-08-01 3.25 2.9
2022-09-01 3.86 3.52
2022-10-01 4.38 3.98
2022-11-01 4.5 3.89
2022-12-01 4.29 3.62
2023-01-01 4.21 3.53
2023-02-01 4.53 3.75
2023-03-01 4.3 3.66
2023-04-01 4.02 3.46
2023-05-01 4.13 3.57
2023-06-01 4.64 3.75
2023-07-01 4.83 3.9
2023-08-01 4.9 4.17
2023-09-01 5.02 4.38
2023-10-01 5.07 4.8
2023-11-01 4.88 4.5
2023-12-01 4.46 4.02
2024-01-01 4.32 4.06
2024-02-01 4.54 4.21
2024-03-01 4.59 4.21
2024-04-01 4.87 4.54
2024-05-01 4.86 4.48
2024-06-01 4.74 4.31
2024-07-01 4.5 4.25
2024-08-01 3.97 3.87
2024-09-01 3.62 3.72
2024-10-01 3.97 4.1
2024-11-01 4.26 4.36
2024-12-01 4.23 4.39
2025-01-01 4.27 4.63
2025-02-01 4.21 4.45
2025-03-01 3.97 4.28
2025-04-01 3.81 4.29

Note: Treasury rates are the 2-year and 10-year constant-maturity yields based on the most actively traded securities. Values are averaged within a calendar month, except for the value of the last month of the series, which is averaged through the data close date.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release H.15, "Selected Interest Rates."

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Figure 1.2. An estimate of the nominal Treasury term premium was near its historical median

Percentage points

Date Term Premium
1997-01-01 1.58630953516279
1997-02-01 1.52144999636544
1997-03-01 1.65370500087738
1997-04-01 1.74750909480182
1997-05-01 1.660628591265
1997-06-01 1.58726190953028
1997-07-01 1.43041817708449
1997-08-01 1.45474285171146
1997-09-01 1.44976190158299
1997-10-01 1.35715907812119
1997-11-01 1.23558333847258
1997-12-01 1.17779090187766
1998-01-01 1.06544999480247
1998-02-01 1.09375262887854
1998-03-01 1.15116818384691
1998-04-01 1.15319999626705
1998-05-01 1.15678500533104
1998-06-01 1.08297273245725
1998-07-01 1.06239090724425
1998-08-01 0.99751904748735
1998-09-01 0.786171430633182
1998-10-01 0.792138093993777
1998-11-01 0.869978954917506
1998-12-01 0.794740909879858
1999-01-01 0.880536841718774
1999-02-01 1.01041052529686
1999-03-01 1.14155653248663
1999-04-01 1.12121903896332
1999-05-01 1.2646000008834
1999-06-01 1.43654091791673
1999-07-01 1.40236842632294
1999-08-01 1.45977726307782
1999-09-01 1.45405238582974
1999-10-01 1.54058499336243
1999-11-01 1.40476500988007
1999-12-01 1.48002272844315
2000-01-01 1.6245500087738
2000-02-01 1.53682498931885
2000-03-01 1.39729130268097
2000-04-01 1.25809474367844
2000-05-01 1.43725909970023
2000-06-01 1.27365908839486
2000-07-01 1.18855500817299
2000-08-01 1.06649565696716
2000-09-01 1.06348999142647
2000-10-01 0.980847619828724
2000-11-01 0.940657144501096
2000-12-01 0.776215001940727
2001-01-01 0.873066666580382
2001-02-01 0.931452631950378
2001-03-01 0.92219999703494
2001-04-01 1.14089499115944
2001-05-01 1.32817727327347
2001-06-01 1.32009048688979
2001-07-01 1.28493333430517
2001-08-01 1.19854346565578
2001-09-01 1.20015882744509
2001-10-01 1.22200909527865
2001-11-01 1.33718499541283
2001-12-01 1.65292502045631
2002-01-01 1.62604762258984
2002-02-01 1.55143684462497
2002-03-01 1.73442001342773
2002-04-01 1.69332726977088
2002-05-01 1.63785454359922
2002-06-01 1.49875000715256
2002-07-01 1.34673635526137
2002-08-01 1.12780000946739
2002-09-01 0.905194997787476
2002-10-01 0.942090904170817
2002-11-01 1.07082104996631
2002-12-01 1.07724285125732
2003-01-01 1.07329524131048
2003-02-01 0.991473693596689
2003-03-01 0.930804766359783
2003-04-01 1.00974286737896
2003-05-01 0.782438085192726
2003-06-01 0.66131428593681
2003-07-01 1.01561818339608
2003-08-01 1.31591429596856
2003-09-01 1.20959046341124
2003-10-01 1.20333182269877
2003-11-01 1.22338889042536
2003-12-01 1.21045908602801
2004-01-01 1.13532500267029
2004-02-01 1.09653684967443
2004-03-01 0.94003043744875
2004-04-01 1.24345713570004
2004-05-01 1.45199499130249
2004-06-01 1.40440475940704
2004-07-01 1.24482380776178
2004-08-01 1.10065453702753
2004-09-01 0.966123802321298
2004-10-01 0.922989997267723
2004-11-01 0.915705007314682
2004-12-01 0.899377270178361
2005-01-01 0.872179999947548
2005-02-01 0.806794731240523
2005-03-01 0.956709086894989
2005-04-01 0.853780950818743
2005-05-01 0.734280952385494
2005-06-01 0.637763635678725
2005-07-01 0.67902999818325
2005-08-01 0.684691304745881
2005-09-01 0.63957142829895
2005-10-01 0.73503500521183
2005-11-01 0.75422999560833
2005-12-01 0.704609527474358
2006-01-01 0.612595000863075
2006-02-01 0.66861052889573
2006-03-01 0.726243477800618
2006-04-01 0.82967367925142
2006-05-01 0.866559088230133
2006-06-01 0.844818182966926
2006-07-01 0.798874998092651
2006-08-01 0.689243479915287
2006-09-01 0.634500002861023
2006-10-01 0.623928572450365
2006-11-01 0.544100005002249
2006-12-01 0.539290001988411
2007-01-01 0.633109521298182
2007-02-01 0.610594740039424
2007-03-01 0.526145455512134
2007-04-01 0.60405714455105
2007-05-01 0.654254544865001
2007-06-01 0.877728572913579
2007-07-01 0.792104757967449
2007-08-01 0.727860878343168
2007-09-01 0.695773689370406
2007-10-01 0.7072409120473
2007-11-01 0.627580001950264
2007-12-01 0.652430000901222
2008-01-01 0.502809517440342
2008-02-01 0.659764996170998
2008-03-01 0.676039996743202
2008-04-01 0.791763638908213
2008-05-01 0.862304764134543
2008-06-01 0.953609528995696
2008-07-01 0.9156999994408
2008-08-01 0.829009524413518
2008-09-01 0.803495239643824
2008-10-01 1.02918636527928
2008-11-01 0.997972226805157
2008-12-01 0.495986368168484
2009-01-01 0.533605000376701
2009-02-01 0.695789478327099
2009-03-01 0.644163638353348
2009-04-01 0.653561904316857
2009-05-01 0.852880001068115
2009-06-01 1.13857725533572
2009-07-01 1.02739999511025
2009-08-01 1.05857618933632
2009-09-01 0.952300000758398
2009-10-01 0.930171430110931
2009-11-01 0.919457893622549
2009-12-01 0.981240903789347
2010-01-01 1.06806315873799
2010-02-01 1.02073684805318
2010-03-01 1.02444781686949
2010-04-01 1.08615455302325
2010-05-01 0.867124995589256
2010-06-01 0.755922723900188
2010-07-01 0.614666666303362
2010-08-01 0.422504544258118
2010-09-01 0.393890475942975
2010-10-01 0.298595001548529
2010-11-01 0.397194999456406
2010-12-01 0.731363635171543
2011-01-01 0.780679997801781
2011-02-01 0.906605265642467
2011-03-01 0.824865221977234
2011-04-01 0.865829998254776
2011-05-01 0.691185712814331
2011-06-01 0.559290913018313
2011-07-01 0.562285003066063
2011-08-01 0.18979565280935
2011-09-01 0.0428476195250239
2011-10-01 0.137049999623559
2011-11-01 0.054134999983944
2011-12-01 0.0322904759308412
2012-01-01 0.00909999991999939
2012-02-01 -0.0134849997702986
2012-03-01 0.105518182157539
2012-04-01 0.03772857219294
2012-05-01 -0.0900090905753049
2012-06-01 -0.171185714857919
2012-07-01 -0.227761905108179
2012-08-01 -0.14846521810345
2012-09-01 -0.149436842061971
2012-10-01 -0.138014286756516
2012-11-01 -0.175314998626709
2012-12-01 -0.14552999958396
2013-01-01 -0.0486761906095559
2013-02-01 -0.0109789472251003
2013-03-01 -0.026494999951683
2013-04-01 -0.12271363762292
2013-05-01 -0.0329909090968696
2013-06-01 0.195124999061227
2013-07-01 0.358877270059152
2013-08-01 0.448931818658655
2013-09-01 0.501565003395081
2013-10-01 0.369068183682182
2013-11-01 0.401110528331054
2013-12-01 0.515038101446061
2014-01-01 0.52883810088748
2014-02-01 0.440584209404494
2014-03-01 0.471128573020299
2014-04-01 0.489000005381448
2014-05-01 0.407899998483204
2014-06-01 0.437390476465225
2014-07-01 0.424050000580874
2014-08-01 0.374171427318028
2014-09-01 0.446385717108136
2014-10-01 0.318909089673649
2014-11-01 0.340266666478581
2014-12-01 0.288990912112323
2015-01-01 0.121139999385923
2015-02-01 0.175105261077222
2015-03-01 0.20422727343711
2015-04-01 0.124940909783949
2015-05-01 0.268689998984337
2015-06-01 0.356704546646638
2015-07-01 0.323763636025515
2015-08-01 0.23001904856591
2015-09-01 0.232133332462538
2015-10-01 0.176319047808647
2015-11-01 0.280394736873476
2015-12-01 0.243222724307667
2016-01-01 0.149057893768737
2016-02-01 -0.0309400000085589
2016-03-01 0.0374590908918022
2016-04-01 -0.0104428570983665
2016-05-01 -0.0063523809852389
2016-06-01 -0.0943636361149732
2016-07-01 -0.174139998108149
2016-08-01 -0.144082610049973
2016-09-01 -0.107480952427501
2016-10-01 -0.0476350001408719
2016-11-01 0.141539998538792
2016-12-01 0.342542856931686
2017-01-01 0.30672500282526
2017-02-01 0.29608946803369
2017-03-01 0.286726086036019
2017-04-01 0.159421052979796
2017-05-01 0.14255000075156
2017-06-01 0.0561999998648058
2017-07-01 0.111135000362992
2017-08-01 0.0598086959317974
2017-09-01 0.048810000458252
2017-10-01 0.126352380428995
2017-11-01 0.106809522779215
2017-12-01 0.126464999839664
2018-01-01 0.20057142774264
2018-02-01 0.321000000363902
2018-03-01 0.288261904602959
2018-04-01 0.28833333509309
2018-05-01 0.334427273408933
2018-06-01 0.291300000179382
2018-07-01 0.267171426897957
2018-08-01 0.247139129301776
2018-09-01 0.285684213042259
2018-10-01 0.336281819777055
2018-11-01 0.296625002473593
2018-12-01 0.131231577772843
2019-01-01 0.0547476185574418
2019-02-01 0.03477368454792
2019-03-01 -0.0232285712790188
2019-04-01 -0.0412238094113058
2019-05-01 -0.106136363507672
2019-06-01 -0.248920001089573
2019-07-01 -0.239750002595511
2019-08-01 -0.421831817789511
2019-09-01 -0.37432000041008
2019-10-01 -0.327504544772885
2019-11-01 -0.236826317090737
2019-12-01 -0.207642855388778
2020-01-01 -0.2653523818368
2020-02-01 -0.403673680205094
2020-03-01 -0.472945454445752
2020-04-01 -0.559052382196699
2020-05-01 -0.573474997282028
2020-06-01 -0.566581819545139
2020-07-01 -0.614431822841818
2020-08-01 -0.607804758208139
2020-09-01 -0.597861908731006
2020-10-01 -0.546838099048251
2020-11-01 -0.49895263345618
2020-12-01 -0.478481818329204
2021-01-01 -0.414852630150946
2021-02-01 -0.32094736710975
2021-03-01 -0.109191304477661
2021-04-01 -0.084340909157287
2021-05-01 -0.0983200002461672
2021-06-01 -0.1325318176638
2021-07-01 -0.226966668452535
2021-08-01 -0.243818181482228
2021-09-01 -0.192747619180452
2021-10-01 -0.059549999749288
2021-11-01 -0.0406099995831028
2021-12-01 -0.0761090904812921
2022-01-01 0.0668149997647561
2022-02-01 0.125415790237879
2022-03-01 0.209773913552256
2022-04-01 0.480945000052452
2022-05-01 0.511123813333966
2022-06-01 0.532090478000187
2022-07-01 0.227425000816584
2022-08-01 0.142060869818796
2022-09-01 0.378104763371604
2022-10-01 0.515035004913807
2022-11-01 0.366604999452829
2022-12-01 0.152128572620097
2023-01-01 0.0486500000581145
2023-02-01 0.146194737502619
2023-03-01 0.119052173893737
2023-04-01 -0.0472100000097271
2023-05-01 -0.0506954544054514
2023-06-01 0.0467190474515692
2023-07-01 0.113849999848753
2023-08-01 0.237073913216591
2023-09-01 0.351450002938509
2023-10-01 0.576500001407805
2023-11-01 0.438385716506413
2023-12-01 0.179819999262691
2024-01-01 0.19098095347484
2024-02-01 0.279920000582933
2024-03-01 0.274129997193813
2024-04-01 0.447454543276267
2024-05-01 0.416045453060757
2024-06-01 0.316757893876026
2024-07-01 0.289236362684857
2024-08-01 0.119927272539247
2024-09-01 0.10067500025034
2024-10-01 0.360750002617186
2024-11-01 0.535778949135228
2024-12-01 0.575852384169897
2025-01-01 0.722966668151674
2025-02-01 0.621594739587683
2025-03-01 0.525414283786501
2025-04-01 0.485822223954731

Note: Term premiums are estimated from a 3-factor term structure model using Treasury yields and Blue Chip interest rate forecasts. Values are averaged within a calendar month, except for the value of the last month of the series, which is averaged through the data close date. The median value is 0.54 percentage points.

Source: Department of the Treasury; Wolters Kluwer, Blue Chip Financial Forecasts; Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Federal Reserve Board staff estimates.

Return to text
Figure 1.3. Interest rate volatility remained well above its median since 2005

Basis points

Date Implied Volatility of 10-Year Swap Rate
2005-04-01 93.1407611818182
2005-05-01 87.2053020454545
2005-06-01 87.5994123636364
2005-07-01 89.342594
2005-08-01 84.2202744347826
2005-09-01 83.8325441363636
2005-10-01 86.0325223333333
2005-11-01 87.1229912727273
2005-12-01 77.7070317272727
2006-01-01 75.8552282272727
2006-02-01 72.57082995
2006-03-01 72.1180623913044
2006-04-01 76.56824595
2006-05-01 74.3080899130435
2006-06-01 70.7608532727273
2006-07-01 69.4930483333333
2006-08-01 62.8133045217391
2006-09-01 62.7310715238095
2006-10-01 64.0431154545455
2006-11-01 67.6373596363636
2006-12-01 66.234062
2007-01-01 66.4426889130435
2007-02-01 66.7878776
2007-03-01 70.8117155454546
2007-04-01 62.8650858095238
2007-05-01 58.1989928695652
2007-06-01 79.0500360952381
2007-07-01 82.6708996818182
2007-08-01 84.3294735217391
2007-09-01 97.0252322
2007-10-01 91.0426627826087
2007-11-01 97.0015865454545
2007-12-01 117.976205190476
2008-01-01 133.406423652174
2008-02-01 150.923306095238
2008-03-01 163.97233552381
2008-04-01 139.643575363636
2008-05-01 126.353198590909
2008-06-01 140.475449761905
2008-07-01 127.802219956522
2008-08-01 111.567181571429
2008-09-01 141.1032905
2008-10-01 188.875971130435
2008-11-01 205.83388575
2008-12-01 232.030661695652
2009-01-01 169.826971590909
2009-02-01 187.7330855
2009-03-01 157.275367409091
2009-04-01 129.736551454545
2009-05-01 153.281603190476
2009-06-01 223.655879409091
2009-07-01 197.755332409091
2009-08-01 180.745684190476
2009-09-01 147.807639681818
2009-10-01 134.645040636364
2009-11-01 112.442800571429
2009-12-01 110.1041495
2010-01-01 109.909501
2010-02-01 100.7843527
2010-03-01 90.5415333043478
2010-04-01 95.7845809090909
2010-05-01 108.376839047619
2010-06-01 108.348928954545
2010-07-01 91.2602745454546
2010-08-01 100.908488681818
2010-09-01 110.990158909091
2010-10-01 102.931406714286
2010-11-01 109.178534727273
2010-12-01 125.347307227273
2011-01-01 113.23575147619
2011-02-01 111.22755815
2011-03-01 110.334852782609
2011-04-01 92.08106005
2011-05-01 89.4274393636364
2011-06-01 94.3602630909091
2011-07-01 101.407765333333
2011-08-01 117.109677521739
2011-09-01 121.005849181818
2011-10-01 124.639285238095
2011-11-01 125.236508363636
2011-12-01 105.109209590909
2012-01-01 86.8961869090909
2012-02-01 87.928798047619
2012-03-01 92.8956355454546
2012-04-01 86.3847064761905
2012-05-01 78.4844144782609
2012-06-01 89.6806648095238
2012-07-01 72.8232575909091
2012-08-01 78.5166424347826
2012-09-01 75.8383667
2012-10-01 75.6908457391304
2012-11-01 67.6227298181818
2012-12-01 61.8341229047619
2013-01-01 67.3589163478261
2013-02-01 68.8840089
2013-03-01 64.7794116190476
2013-04-01 60.4505235
2013-05-01 69.0075274782609
2013-06-01 100.3947363
2013-07-01 104.775979478261
2013-08-01 100.2640195
2013-09-01 101.211893142857
2013-10-01 81.617062173913
2013-11-01 74.5137228571429
2013-12-01 75.8982773636364
2014-01-01 70.363670826087
2014-02-01 69.2855606
2014-03-01 65.5307374285714
2014-04-01 62.8501716666667
2014-05-01 61.4742948181818
2014-06-01 61.9679537142857
2014-07-01 59.6560042608696
2014-08-01 62.2641432380952
2014-09-01 65.4064466363636
2014-10-01 76.7030626956522
2014-11-01 67.40892365
2014-12-01 70.2256455652174
2015-01-01 87.0186313636364
2015-02-01 91.13263945
2015-03-01 84.3177593181818
2015-04-01 77.4148326818182
2015-05-01 86.7601392380952
2015-06-01 88.911496
2015-07-01 82.9971814347826
2015-08-01 80.31959485
2015-09-01 79.7947395
2015-10-01 75.1609395454545
2015-11-01 72.1120120952381
2015-12-01 70.300521826087
2016-01-01 76.2914845238095
2016-02-01 89.1231934761905
2016-03-01 78.9347058181818
2016-04-01 72.0117337619048
2016-05-01 69.0779673636364
2016-06-01 77.249059
2016-07-01 76.8601374285714
2016-08-01 68.1436731739131
2016-09-01 67.2750649090909
2016-10-01 65.2515483809524
2016-11-01 83.5448066818182
2016-12-01 81.1593321363636
2017-01-01 81.1271510909091
2017-02-01 75.6451058
2017-03-01 69.9332405652174
2017-04-01 75.8273615
2017-05-01 62.2952567826087
2017-06-01 58.9056952272727
2017-07-01 59.5746184761905
2017-08-01 57.3938232608696
2017-09-01 58.1155528095238
2017-10-01 59.6366519545455
2017-11-01 52.3190709090909
2017-12-01 50.8717691904762
2018-01-01 55.5877003043478
2018-02-01 72.027128
2018-03-01 63.4433651363636
2018-04-01 58.5823622857143
2018-05-01 58.537723
2018-06-01 57.8168248095238
2018-07-01 53.9075479545455
2018-08-01 52.7038092608696
2018-09-01 51.701349
2018-10-01 58.2089809130435
2018-11-01 57.7368546363636
2018-12-01 59.4768278095238
2019-01-01 56.8872852608696
2019-02-01 50.92862395
2019-03-01 52.1450475238095
2019-04-01 51.7224289090909
2019-05-01 57.229373826087
2019-06-01 68.6766383
2019-07-01 62.13732
2019-08-01 81.9997485454546
2019-09-01 82.103384952381
2019-10-01 78.1486783478261
2019-11-01 66.9196303809524
2019-12-01 64.9177692272727
2020-01-01 63.7826934782609
2020-02-01 76.3504349
2020-03-01 128.198282909091
2020-04-01 79.1194908181818
2020-05-01 62.0802865714286
2020-06-01 68.1176147272727
2020-07-01 56.0211723913044
2020-08-01 54.0961076666667
2020-09-01 49.9714252727273
2020-10-01 68.7694889545455
2020-11-01 57.2393500952381
2020-12-01 58.7475827391304
2021-01-01 58.6661465714286
2021-02-01 68.86160195
2021-03-01 82.8590066956522
2021-04-01 76.9544033181818
2021-05-01 69.6327573333333
2021-06-01 66.3641393636364
2021-07-01 73.0951925454546
2021-08-01 75.2578712727273
2021-09-01 69.091108
2021-10-01 73.5020376666667
2021-11-01 79.6158680454546
2021-12-01 80.1248898695652
2022-01-01 81.8231407142857
2022-02-01 88.68905865
2022-03-01 108.610251478261
2022-04-01 119.366245
2022-05-01 114.930118181818
2022-06-01 119.709321590909
2022-07-01 122.756632952381
2022-08-01 111.678260869565
2022-09-01 127.081818181818
2022-10-01 138.352380952381
2022-11-01 126.554545454545
2022-12-01 125.859090909091
2023-01-01 111.909090909091
2023-02-01 105.985
2023-03-01 120.695652173913
2023-04-01 112.905
2023-05-01 115.917391304348
2023-06-01 106.777272727273
2023-07-01 108.009523809524
2023-08-01 115.373913043478
2023-09-01 112.357142857143
2023-10-01 129.386363636364
2023-11-01 117.290909090909
2023-12-01 112.585714285714
2024-01-01 107.986956521739
2024-02-01 108.147619047619
2024-03-01 101.319047619048
2024-04-01 104.718181818182
2024-05-01 100.313043478261
2024-06-01 102.67
2024-07-01 101.736363636364
2024-08-01 104.177272727273
2024-09-01 99.41
2024-10-01 103.582608695652
2024-11-01 103.719047619048
2024-12-01 100.045454545455
2025-01-01 99.0739130434783
2025-02-01 95.595
2025-03-01 99.5857142857143
2025-04-01 107.611111111111

Note: The data begin in April 2005. Implied volatility on the 10-year swap rate, 1 month ahead, is derived from swaptions.Values are averaged within a calendar month, except for the value of the last month of the series, which is averaged through the data close date. The median value is 82.10 basis points.

Source: For data through July 13, 2022, Barclays and S&P Global; for data from July 14, 2022, onward, ICAP, Swaptions and Interest Rate Caps and Floors Data.

Return to text
Figure 1.4. Before the April volatility, the price-to-earnings ratio of S&P 500 firms was close to the upper end of its historical range

Ratio

Date Forward Price-to-Earnings Ratio
1989-01-01 10.064110802912
1989-02-01 10.1354222229556
1989-03-01 10.1118907575573
1989-04-01 10.4208422960037
1989-05-01 10.7228503267809
1989-06-01 10.8503272103165
1989-07-01 11.2392063298721
1989-08-01 11.5545359809383
1989-09-01 11.505456366053
1989-10-01 11.4766891995802
1989-11-01 11.5116630948326
1989-12-01 11.8814382162163
1990-01-01 11.5254884050489
1990-02-01 11.2996928101197
1990-03-01 11.4927275307601
1990-04-01 11.6484928030107
1990-05-01 12.0715274574721
1990-06-01 12.3790950139676
1990-07-01 12.389249111871
1990-08-01 11.509989759019
1990-09-01 10.7870881438221
1990-10-01 10.3022802927542
1990-11-01 11.1826199492623
1990-12-01 11.662210108803
1991-01-01 11.2520640043292
1991-02-01 13.4296807459093
1991-03-01 13.7676714785148
1991-04-01 14.4449010371573
1991-05-01 13.641204704472
1991-06-01 13.9019642983841
1991-07-01 14.1588209489215
1991-08-01 14.398418029754
1991-09-01 14.20983729807
1991-10-01 14.3178216743727
1991-11-01 14.4580045225799
1991-12-01 14.0149520598111
1992-01-01 15.3733323031005
1992-02-01 15.0168594068823
1992-03-01 14.8698088616637
1992-04-01 14.8084755977545
1992-05-01 14.7011620229824
1992-06-01 14.0118362993815
1992-07-01 14.4287621550403
1992-08-01 14.4493247427932
1992-09-01 14.406782642525
1992-10-01 14.0007167848967
1992-11-01 14.5131123587035
1992-12-01 14.7028605626593
1993-01-01 14.6080223169136
1993-02-01 14.6585882859443
1993-03-01 15.0088198818986
1993-04-01 15.0293661117014
1993-05-01 14.7210731692772
1993-06-01 14.6368211915481
1993-07-01 14.6338443242581
1993-08-01 14.7629996493623
1993-09-01 14.8018828858099
1993-10-01 14.6402232720415
1993-11-01 14.6646018829395
1993-12-01 14.4752788075255
1994-01-01 14.7450808686928
1994-02-01 14.6017375805503
1994-03-01 14.3343066705941
1994-04-01 13.4598086943879
1994-05-01 13.420290223906
1994-06-01 13.4712919557443
1994-07-01 13.0052748568204
1994-08-01 13.2082100738755
1994-09-01 13.1110098551345
1994-10-01 12.9188184051976
1994-11-01 12.5574339767481
1994-12-01 12.0891290185103
1995-01-01 12.3127780410304
1995-02-01 12.4846044330741
1995-03-01 12.5093094620331
1995-04-01 12.6617877916398
1995-05-01 12.9076914866376
1995-06-01 13.0562154746262
1995-07-01 13.3014131875827
1995-08-01 13.3509455423534
1995-09-01 13.671903647231
1995-10-01 13.7722548220036
1995-11-01 13.8051953598625
1995-12-01 14.319961632033
1996-01-01 14.0113131536269
1996-02-01 15.2297614657425
1996-03-01 14.8044600666095
1996-04-01 14.7866414671288
1996-05-01 15.1905129694677
1996-06-01 14.7283326112878
1996-07-01 14.4049772575256
1996-08-01 14.9199060382805
1996-09-01 15.2446963291274
1996-10-01 15.6118443549207
1996-11-01 16.0707532409268
1996-12-01 15.8460167641205
1997-01-01 16.457820021374
1997-02-01 17.359108102395
1997-03-01 16.6476818115338
1997-04-01 16.0273920536681
1997-05-01 17.3854748006869
1997-06-01 18.3932755738513
1997-07-01 19.2279938617655
1997-08-01 18.6785335828538
1997-09-01 18.9185269643148
1997-10-01 19.1994059525628
1997-11-01 18.6019317164569
1997-12-01 18.8728643214239
1998-01-01 18.6649143714561
1998-02-01 20.366879142821
1998-03-01 21.4253622941911
1998-04-01 21.9020402536955
1998-05-01 21.6885812582682
1998-06-01 21.4202705761609
1998-07-01 22.7744924717585
1998-08-01 21.167831185028
1998-09-01 20.0165891590059
1998-10-01 19.2755156626689
1998-11-01 22.0212200543763
1998-12-01 22.3009038772995
1999-01-01 23.7010191646146
1999-02-01 23.5295776914123
1999-03-01 24.7252707402268
1999-04-01 24.9502029241696
1999-05-01 24.737698591688
1999-06-01 24.2960543007422
1999-07-01 25.4370560898055
1999-08-01 23.9050159553281
1999-09-01 23.4639044891727
1999-10-01 22.5468085690531
1999-11-01 24.4966606213728
1999-12-01 24.4216063395644
2000-01-01 24.8526280684284
2000-02-01 24.0257313637783
2000-03-01 23.7296035905427
2000-04-01 23.9131338781726
2000-05-01 23.8836164983607
2000-06-01 24.0995032606436
2000-07-01 24.0958842601019
2000-08-01 23.8546315068722
2000-09-01 23.8565939673928
2000-10-01 21.4411792314232
2000-11-01 22.2487610417763
2000-12-01 22.1002841704971
2001-01-01 21.980041095514
2001-02-01 22.1013981656308
2001-03-01 19.721566866201
2001-04-01 21.4100868169347
2001-05-01 22.2361740413079
2001-06-01 21.6729885388608
2001-07-01 21.6057563344248
2001-08-01 21.1658220386153
2001-09-01 18.4180719212926
2001-10-01 20.3744301491753
2001-11-01 21.5017609903655
2001-12-01 21.5723789036184
2002-01-01 21.0024094431207
2002-02-01 20.4702480466719
2002-03-01 20.7532071754425
2002-04-01 20.171073082368
2002-05-01 19.4014146430162
2002-06-01 18.1097251506246
2002-07-01 16.1454240985735
2002-08-01 16.5988766877319
2002-09-01 15.7165692408424
2002-10-01 15.7735548249759
2002-11-01 16.0242939089624
2002-12-01 16.1194385199582
2003-01-01 16.4802321137909
2003-02-01 15.349024328644
2003-03-01 15.7129018533177
2003-04-01 15.6828023772104
2003-05-01 16.5651766572087
2003-06-01 17.6914210433573
2003-07-01 17.274792080051
2003-08-01 16.9382064572688
2003-09-01 17.4154393976148
2003-10-01 17.5043713952007
2003-11-01 17.1008170529711
2003-12-01 17.4275257771095
2004-01-01 18.0940757308309
2004-02-01 18.0902616114029
2004-03-01 17.3956291145095
2004-04-01 17.1036986759829
2004-05-01 15.9745279072608
2004-06-01 16.4098846677644
2004-07-01 15.9267204599172
2004-08-01 15.5172629518374
2004-09-01 15.771878274983
2004-10-01 15.4860450001677
2004-11-01 16.1670460056993
2004-12-01 16.3193680911473
2005-01-01 15.9499112028002
2005-02-01 16.1652287316635
2005-03-01 15.6438383149876
2005-04-01 15.3028866788099
2005-05-01 15.2783617561695
2005-06-01 15.4154590085281
2005-07-01 15.4085583701055
2005-08-01 15.1390956950401
2005-09-01 14.9553120035627
2005-10-01 14.336515875131
2005-11-01 14.6093873123602
2005-12-01 14.9776075944652
2006-01-01 14.9025922006816
2006-02-01 14.9313101753656
2006-03-01 15.0627631393822
2006-04-01 14.993025732677
2006-05-01 14.2964640846227
2006-06-01 13.6930243996225
2006-07-01 13.902581440556
2006-08-01 14.1262340888069
2006-09-01 14.263941966287
2006-10-01 14.6570800379406
2006-11-01 14.8065253905685
2006-12-01 14.8241477692641
2007-01-01 15.0133961274988
2007-02-01 15.3888478698841
2007-03-01 14.5557281950038
2007-04-01 15.314950096389
2007-05-01 15.5088830092269
2007-06-01 15.2980973218847
2007-07-01 15.4087784531208
2007-08-01 13.8715279778555
2007-09-01 15.0078767611285
2007-10-01 15.0157731555396
2007-11-01 14.323053262996
2007-12-01 14.1983145191767
2008-01-01 13.4931634833754
2008-02-01 13.6780353849857
2008-03-01 13.0898493271686
2008-04-01 13.8049982775038
2008-05-01 14.3033298656706
2008-06-01 13.5072997141024
2008-07-01 12.5960896553764
2008-08-01 13.288734744175
2008-09-01 12.0103624199678
2008-10-01 9.93252550065944
2008-11-01 9.73580829321532
2008-12-01 11.8748079382443
2009-01-01 11.4796347445491
2009-02-01 12.4565132922198
2009-03-01 12.421535991889
2009-04-01 13.5093048668462
2009-05-01 14.6552198789424
2009-06-01 14.7260586716719
2009-07-01 14.7963737894653
2009-08-01 15.2042682748808
2009-09-01 15.9084665425265
2009-10-01 15.8514274730089
2009-11-01 15.1212215514868
2009-12-01 14.8883697940348
2010-01-01 14.8020287822228
2010-02-01 13.809939387295
2010-03-01 14.4376211730235
2010-04-01 14.8238280250841
2010-05-01 12.9866581776816
2010-06-01 12.8168055282933
2010-07-01 12.4946295481757
2010-08-01 12.1001458946644
2010-09-01 12.3534762926281
2010-10-01 12.8359866600289
2010-11-01 12.5666880591668
2010-12-01 13.0311672490106
2011-01-01 13.2128103740831
2011-02-01 13.70426763453
2011-03-01 12.6064716168015
2011-04-01 12.9692671508975
2011-05-01 12.8947060891203
2011-06-01 12.066230875752
2011-07-01 12.6372444564771
2011-08-01 11.2822930747141
2011-09-01 11.242226718167
2011-10-01 11.4983601096016
2011-11-01 11.6733337369285
2011-12-01 11.4038309133275
2012-01-01 12.3276044642031
2012-02-01 12.6341020465426
2012-03-01 12.9629181529635
2012-04-01 12.6561654514458
2012-05-01 12.0116963355424
2012-06-01 11.8910419697172
2012-07-01 12.5921672871056
2012-08-01 12.9169715061824
2012-09-01 13.3359739539734
2012-10-01 13.2071677470199
2012-11-01 12.187745020095
2012-12-01 12.8569632611251
2013-01-01 13.1206049846258
2013-02-01 13.5310721962038
2013-03-01 13.7165811942126
2013-04-01 13.5902676488249
2013-05-01 14.4772550802197
2013-06-01 14.1015518757966
2013-07-01 14.507927838336
2013-08-01 14.57985486345
2013-09-01 14.8363440774613
2013-10-01 14.7112671860007
2013-11-01 15.0308805447839
2013-12-01 15.1982258684664
2014-01-01 15.4241601201696
2014-02-01 15.4339421580895
2014-03-01 15.6027022900579
2014-04-01 15.4570274203524
2014-05-01 15.4500095246775
2014-06-01 15.8286128445159
2014-07-01 15.9653986622669
2014-08-01 15.5462291556942
2014-09-01 15.8910908608549
2014-10-01 14.759410179516
2014-11-01 16.1895494186558
2014-12-01 16.1127766016762
2015-01-01 16.2280243588432
2015-02-01 17.350694640561
2015-03-01 17.2723659330419
2015-04-01 17.286198897702
2015-05-01 17.0888119748026
2015-06-01 16.9584571263974
2015-07-01 16.9766496330053
2015-08-01 16.7530293721275
2015-09-01 16.0927821737259
2015-10-01 16.1397737090767
2015-11-01 16.797541869479
2015-12-01 16.6882023180914
2016-01-01 15.297622004765
2016-02-01 15.9099169426857
2016-03-01 16.7099468353909
2016-04-01 17.0918239395365
2016-05-01 16.6750382234222
2016-06-01 16.7466186553525
2016-07-01 17.3994784115693
2016-08-01 17.5192415089126
2016-09-01 16.9188228468421
2016-10-01 16.8911586241555
2016-11-01 16.9462384040276
2016-12-01 17.3268287456006
2017-01-01 17.2743889700111
2017-02-01 17.9105235574604
2017-03-01 18.0368223022344
2017-04-01 17.541224991596
2017-05-01 17.494006071254
2017-06-01 17.9088713246164
2017-07-01 18.2279600013002
2017-08-01 18.0943139217785
2017-09-01 18.1817029005657
2017-10-01 18.4438565783337
2017-11-01 18.1446526326786
2017-12-01 18.6367104929842
2018-01-01 18.7257328207539
2018-02-01 17.279344877067
2018-03-01 17.3750595600644
2018-04-01 16.9214836717483
2018-05-01 16.6822308552441
2018-06-01 16.8403883986784
2018-07-01 17.0287087453872
2018-08-01 16.8202347859514
2018-09-01 17.2101424489951
2018-10-01 16.4977198244726
2018-11-01 15.7189892867683
2018-12-01 14.6490817468018
2019-01-01 15.4539721833922
2019-02-01 16.3434015638687
2019-03-01 16.6024493419952
2019-04-01 17.0790649766742
2019-05-01 16.6616217880659
2019-06-01 17.0282419266586
2019-07-01 17.4491478873707
2019-08-01 16.5418216365598
2019-09-01 17.402281824023
2019-10-01 17.3125697013795
2019-11-01 17.8324734407705
2019-12-01 18.2518067671224
2020-01-01 18.731997924346
2020-02-01 19.2700419780267
2020-03-01 14.1265846133272
2020-04-01 18.9302114255266
2020-05-01 20.5199081168649
2020-06-01 22.3996981140718
2020-07-01 23.0960021815431
2020-08-01 23.098581958205
2020-09-01 22.6384759576322
2020-10-01 22.80968977665
2020-11-01 22.2430256119932
2020-12-01 22.5584849508302
2021-01-01 23.047520270662
2021-02-01 22.7583998940788
2021-03-01 22.4539954590076
2021-04-01 22.6451838339713
2021-05-01 21.3311951066226
2021-06-01 21.5963940892116
2021-07-01 22.1789362424471
2021-08-01 21.4361099328753
2021-09-01 21.6313985994011
2021-10-01 20.8059679212209
2021-11-01 21.8404558029026
2021-12-01 21.6017430381825
2022-01-01 20.550658317044
2022-02-01 19.9591492989646
2022-03-01 19.1292162524317
2022-04-01 19.324943304405
2022-05-01 16.8658669606084
2022-06-01 16.162820292381
2022-07-01 16.3361368573527
2022-08-01 18.6076238980905
2022-09-01 17.1122739037861
2022-10-01 16.1641451696778
2022-11-01 17.5809159796143
2022-12-01 17.6435064012813
2023-01-01 17.492485566549
2023-02-01 18.6614603473972
2023-03-01 17.4153677532704
2023-04-01 18.5735700832302
2023-05-01 18.4150757722174
2023-06-01 19.1929535746909
2023-07-01 20.1609955513474
2023-08-01 19.1068836295728
2023-09-01 19.1319114701453
2023-10-01 18.30832480086
2023-11-01 18.8827195626935
2023-12-01 19.4745952973752
2024-01-01 19.5766986249909
2024-02-01 20.4709590401001
2024-03-01 20.8097089772544
2024-04-01 20.0990943716271
2024-05-01 20.9227457510074
2024-06-01 21.349270430946
2024-07-01 21.7645201423505
2024-08-01 21.0951927268468
2024-09-01 21.5206248967076
2024-10-01 22.1790073569198
2024-11-01 22.4323211975299
2024-12-01 21.7273191358289
2025-01-01 21.7814877979262
2025-02-01 22.5271294564709
2025-03-01 20.5331067990401

Note: The figure shows the aggregate forward price-to-earnings ratio of Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 firms, based on expected earnings for 12 months ahead. Values are reported as of month-end. The median value is 15.77 ratio.

Source: LSEG, Institutional Brokers' Estimate System, North American Summary & Detail Estimates, Level 2, Current & History Data, Adjusted and Unadjusted, https://www.lseg.com/en/data-analytics/financial-data/company-data/ibes-estimates.

Return to text
Figure 1.5. As of March, an estimate of the equity premium was near a 20-year low

Percentage points

Date Spread
1991-10-01 3.31267604122933
1991-11-01 3.29698195133821
1991-12-01 3.80522559451709
1992-01-01 2.88087210549424
1992-02-01 2.79489805269168
1992-03-01 2.73275094491514
1992-04-01 3.00402267735771
1992-05-01 3.1427787727378
1992-06-01 3.59386471700855
1992-07-01 3.57447670892668
1992-08-01 3.78320030459405
1992-09-01 3.92843222153843
1992-10-01 3.83839467424281
1992-11-01 3.38413967642048
1992-12-01 3.38594617164295
1993-01-01 3.48980371608156
1993-02-01 3.80610691493826
1993-03-01 3.87430660963222
1993-04-01 4.09325310440521
1993-05-01 4.22508324077965
1993-06-01 4.40839797526495
1993-07-01 4.33086696902072
1993-08-01 4.35460606320371
1993-09-01 4.64891270083862
1993-10-01 4.76791317807311
1993-11-01 4.38568684199905
1993-12-01 4.44614258965064
1994-01-01 4.35771370210068
1994-02-01 4.18045295459611
1994-03-01 3.79525102429644
1994-04-01 3.82654669631632
1994-05-01 3.6764559484889
1994-06-01 3.73633080227627
1994-07-01 3.79914501786774
1994-08-01 3.75038984676865
1994-09-01 3.58191422457891
1994-10-01 3.43762793515621
1994-11-01 3.46548056978495
1994-12-01 3.88641356101905
1995-01-01 3.5419640081
1995-02-01 3.7607653134
1995-03-01 3.98370460927977
1995-04-01 4.09007754365385
1995-05-01 4.3815485784795
1995-06-01 4.72176608343636
1995-07-01 4.32247877287545
1995-08-01 4.08466379719548
1995-09-01 4.1805113479478
1995-10-01 4.11660850923124
1995-11-01 4.21785555845324
1995-12-01 4.1581803668457
1996-01-01 4.36911907489476
1996-02-01 3.64644775493885
1996-03-01 3.34515472981229
1996-04-01 3.09549661776768
1996-05-01 2.74438796291186
1996-06-01 2.80554061899495
1996-07-01 3.03370020860268
1996-08-01 3.03042570058195
1996-09-01 2.6548527530005
1996-10-01 2.80365711254795
1996-11-01 2.94404767164958
1996-12-01 2.95244486352662
1997-01-01 2.45606030185991
1997-02-01 2.28071960149389
1997-03-01 2.2210551947253
1997-04-01 2.11240566298368
1997-05-01 1.81472270217943
1997-06-01 1.69467720169229
1997-07-01 1.87930688099582
1997-08-01 1.9319763238801
1997-09-01 1.93815122929938
1997-10-01 1.68115792267904
1997-11-01 2.02955059517511
1997-12-01 2.04435300722786
1998-01-01 2.2940112809839
1998-02-01 1.77879613083
1998-03-01 1.46024453532118
1998-04-01 1.26821173626067
1998-05-01 1.28895881361285
1998-06-01 1.50267632912118
1998-07-01 1.27851634570859
1998-08-01 1.75731299787876
1998-09-01 2.48071967544038
1998-10-01 2.8590858533259
1998-11-01 1.96118659575216
1998-12-01 2.04262173899159
1999-01-01 1.44202973797905
1999-02-01 1.20164357529689
1999-03-01 0.757431610976651
1999-04-01 1.00753510545467
1999-05-01 0.71484316666079
1999-06-01 0.430594382775135
1999-07-01 0.329298397012053
1999-08-01 0.396721316347228
1999-09-01 0.456570814469048
1999-10-01 0.426752582212697
1999-11-01 0.243985079960101
1999-12-01 0.0263758767567293
2000-01-01 -0.3036891170661
2000-02-01 -0.042919277523799
2000-03-01 0.210407817457346
2000-04-01 0.41997135683579
2000-05-01 0.0155006740449553
2000-06-01 0.319056909747865
2000-07-01 0.41284162839425
2000-08-01 0.634467013022303
2000-09-01 0.63177966006575
2000-10-01 1.2119061379059
2000-11-01 1.10181444280762
2000-12-01 1.56971354919645
2001-01-01 1.66628746334638
2001-02-01 1.67364118375751
2001-03-01 2.39237346545568
2001-04-01 1.7758186219528
2001-05-01 1.3994129539465
2001-06-01 1.606918078675
2001-07-01 1.68450956392391
2001-08-01 1.98410514843557
2001-09-01 2.8810499678
2001-10-01 2.6013127309
2001-11-01 2.2600768613
2001-12-01 1.7822223693
2002-01-01 1.93730608464762
2002-02-01 2.14819654923684
2002-03-01 1.7190423432
2002-04-01 1.96846717907273
2002-05-01 2.25507241860909
2002-06-01 2.863144958
2002-07-01 3.79219173733637
2002-08-01 3.98948133292727
2002-09-01 4.6986067641
2002-10-01 4.53730682688182
2002-11-01 4.36540878952632
2002-12-01 4.34441383732381
2003-01-01 4.26731855874286
2003-02-01 4.87718261551579
2003-03-01 4.82627300997619
2003-04-01 4.71275902784762
2003-05-01 4.79325072749048
2003-06-01 4.64599051893333
2003-07-01 4.1532316847
2003-08-01 3.76095565174286
2003-09-01 3.79622188389048
2003-10-01 3.76704958549091
2003-11-01 3.89580714273333
2003-12-01 3.82640372575454
2004-01-01 3.7465408003
2004-02-01 3.80877813926316
2004-03-01 4.28676613167391
2004-04-01 3.85009335800476
2004-05-01 3.884605902
2004-06-01 3.70994042615238
2004-07-01 4.13800414344762
2004-08-01 4.51091730338182
2004-09-01 4.5764989212
2004-10-01 4.7201566702
2004-11-01 4.3635618739
2004-12-01 4.28602460753636
2005-01-01 4.4044723809
2005-02-01 4.38979091521053
2005-03-01 4.25537948163636
2005-04-01 4.61210051018571
2005-05-01 4.82325198034762
2005-06-01 4.91621282431818
2005-07-01 4.7444148075
2005-08-01 4.76996217938696
2005-09-01 4.9058254413381
2005-10-01 4.918420429
2005-11-01 4.6848690174
2005-12-01 4.6050718212381
2006-01-01 4.7076619937
2006-02-01 4.53818329042105
2006-03-01 4.31557077779565
2006-04-01 4.09650988816316
2006-05-01 4.30824565010909
2006-06-01 4.62141579312727
2006-07-01 4.5432487722
2006-08-01 4.63587970321304
2006-09-01 4.7126197207
2006-10-01 4.52324608890476
2006-11-01 4.59244088816191
2006-12-01 4.6117903498
2007-01-01 4.18104671612857
2007-02-01 4.04917542469474
2007-03-01 4.57084297724546
2007-04-01 4.155167473
2007-05-01 4.03230398223636
2007-06-01 3.76214632548571
2007-07-01 3.80658806488095
2007-08-01 4.81129811662174
2007-09-01 4.43419930024737
2007-10-01 4.42738646647273
2007-11-01 5.0818415975
2007-12-01 5.1698345065
2008-01-01 5.99133667357619
2008-02-01 5.8645164681
2008-03-01 6.4061423389
2008-04-01 5.85850317606573
2008-05-01 5.40155515872908
2008-06-01 5.59621373283047
2008-07-01 6.25108534370653
2008-08-01 5.96315183608711
2008-09-01 6.93164343399366
2008-10-01 8.31060103569268
2008-11-01 8.73793304022563
2008-12-01 7.98668882116921
2009-01-01 8.05063854742808
2009-02-01 7.04062340784376
2009-03-01 7.20469780799335
2009-04-01 6.64821013643963
2009-05-01 5.70183230922508
2009-06-01 5.23594692024012
2009-07-01 5.38605357241467
2009-08-01 5.1965194986808
2009-09-01 5.10599906411545
2009-10-01 4.9372229579199
2009-11-01 5.2361276050491
2009-12-01 5.19827028088101
2010-01-01 5.25152014371086
2010-02-01 5.78180874961631
2010-03-01 5.46113139937852
2010-04-01 5.20946405493204
2010-05-01 6.54460537790297
2010-06-01 6.84803801114505
2010-07-01 7.15991000286431
2010-08-01 7.77098586119029
2010-09-01 7.63624457825532
2010-10-01 7.35463703444428
2010-11-01 7.32850111386603
2010-12-01 6.48288238660822
2011-01-01 6.39829256006077
2011-02-01 5.95850755370971
2011-03-01 6.74389891538824
2011-04-01 6.57686091166917
2011-05-01 6.91099197972141
2011-06-01 7.61459666951775
2011-07-01 7.23252748023923
2011-08-01 8.8958681586292
2011-09-01 9.25280164568387
2011-10-01 8.9786423370627
2011-11-01 9.01163311678091
2011-12-01 9.25633543964572
2012-01-01 8.41981111544734
2012-02-01 8.23234066736021
2012-03-01 7.81343512624052
2012-04-01 8.31444928004019
2012-05-01 9.00779151775453
2012-06-01 9.27443004355411
2012-07-01 8.77457324602172
2012-08-01 8.40137016833512
2012-09-01 8.1353044187344
2012-10-01 8.14277466828375
2012-11-01 8.86926825229727
2012-12-01 8.37704642150164
2013-01-01 8.01776167421252
2013-02-01 7.7088394650598
2013-03-01 7.63495140101444
2013-04-01 7.92053407735572
2013-05-01 7.28381857739307
2013-06-01 7.06442810058767
2013-07-01 6.48583767228104
2013-08-01 6.27895155632149
2013-09-01 6.10438996118176
2013-10-01 6.44607459236323
2013-11-01 6.19170173705419
2013-12-01 5.93081058331541
2014-01-01 5.88751613367488
2014-02-01 6.02878919892135
2014-03-01 5.95024618748786
2014-04-01 5.97828258067209
2014-05-01 6.13966887744832
2014-06-01 5.93629205627505
2014-07-01 5.89187727098481
2014-08-01 6.17510898572176
2014-09-01 5.9187770722901
2014-10-01 6.62748853310448
2014-11-01 6.00246302977366
2014-12-01 6.16313223817464
2015-01-01 6.33924955758748
2015-02-01 5.82576327316909
2015-03-01 5.79419024610289
2015-04-01 5.93134814042074
2015-05-01 5.72121684584613
2015-06-01 5.60487195321566
2015-07-01 5.68083467156695
2015-08-01 5.91620303170709
2015-09-01 6.14821830336009
2015-10-01 6.23917372253793
2015-11-01 5.77864675193824
2015-12-01 5.83968446477105
2016-01-01 6.5184847915464
2016-02-01 6.56632792657415
2016-03-01 6.15585950623602
2016-04-01 6.21063159326073
2016-05-01 6.34797822171512
2016-06-01 6.49488197551596
2016-07-01 6.37307371727276
2016-08-01 6.27259227296428
2016-09-01 6.39646716827359
2016-10-01 6.34811699404142
2016-11-01 5.92861458352045
2016-12-01 5.43346322861085
2017-01-01 5.6136217031665
2017-02-01 5.41902549830846
2017-03-01 5.32070514477305
2017-04-01 5.66899824675205
2017-05-01 5.67334814331075
2017-06-01 5.67352478589448
2017-07-01 5.39402742829457
2017-08-01 5.54224586362142
2017-09-01 5.53036486318696
2017-10-01 5.25436910335882
2017-11-01 5.34344180157218
2017-12-01 5.1442637785006
2018-01-01 4.99734019362924
2018-02-01 5.15500381426546
2018-03-01 5.15168550056193
2018-04-01 5.34326157302825
2018-05-01 5.30723848930116
2018-06-01 5.31211484416694
2018-07-01 5.172259682182
2018-08-01 5.25022455403996
2018-09-01 5.00393240686363
2018-10-01 5.11388914495841
2018-11-01 5.44672219136154
2018-12-01 6.20385065980553
2019-01-01 5.96531874926428
2019-02-01 5.64505621331343
2019-03-01 5.64791719268041
2019-04-01 5.51533101941168
2019-05-01 5.7922258116743
2019-06-01 5.98602186038227
2019-07-01 5.87023888318618
2019-08-01 6.60874705019441
2019-09-01 6.23063786102807
2019-10-01 6.26249547936093
2019-11-01 5.97663649748493
2019-12-01 5.78976677805025
2020-01-01 5.76305884767919
2020-02-01 5.87222334204315
2020-03-01 8.33885641435579
2020-04-01 6.69401832570881
2020-05-01 6.29891617140407
2020-06-01 5.84821861408432
2020-07-01 5.73121730387897
2020-08-01 5.71110818230923
2020-09-01 5.77395372517924
2020-10-01 5.72092551678723
2020-11-01 5.74860177991579
2020-12-01 5.62533544906364
2021-01-01 5.46221946533684
2021-02-01 5.32170833848947
2021-03-01 4.98232429264348
2021-04-01 5.02734547434546
2021-05-01 5.3110798723
2021-06-01 5.35597081231818
2021-07-01 5.59186823238571
2021-08-01 5.78880279802727
2021-09-01 5.6603476838381
2021-10-01 5.7386632837
2021-11-01 5.5244440217
2021-12-01 5.65466970256364
2022-01-01 5.5283591661
2022-02-01 5.50562831454211
2022-03-01 5.5427057043
2022-04-01 5.1634944246
2022-05-01 5.75105392301905
2022-06-01 5.74744379290476
2022-07-01 5.9317682763
2022-08-01 5.21484564322609
2022-09-01 5.03563968148095
2022-10-01 5.0389969168
2022-11-01 4.6383607748
2022-12-01 4.95568380907619
2023-01-01 4.5214304609
2023-02-01 3.93132164502632
2023-03-01 4.3612898122087
2023-04-01 4.2164045445
2023-05-01 4.1428333441
2023-06-01 3.75195978601429
2023-07-01 3.3985775195
2023-08-01 3.40958977894348
2023-09-01 3.1652492627
2023-10-01 2.94551998272381
2023-11-01 3.08597590252857
2023-12-01 3.4351048963
2024-01-01 3.23238024166667
2024-02-01 2.8523339848
2024-03-01 2.7937092309
2024-04-01 2.73861672991818
2024-05-01 2.59800559661818
2024-06-01 2.68453765250526
2024-07-01 2.61416107792727
2024-08-01 3.14715742459091
2024-09-01 3.2126152179
2024-10-01 2.61374078847273
2024-11-01 2.29428500924737
2024-12-01 2.40519586759524
2025-01-01 2.22141175435714
2025-02-01 2.26058673004211
2025-03-01 2.85116931478571

Note: The data begin in October 1991. The figure shows the difference between the aggregate forward earnings-to-price ratio of Standard and Poor's 500 firms and the expected real Treasury yields, based on expected earnings for 12 months ahead. Expected real Treasury yields are calculated from the 10-year consumer price index inflation forecast, and the smoothed nominal yield curve is estimated from off-the-run securities. Values are reported as of month-end. The median value is 4.64 percentage points.

Source: LSEG, Institutional Brokers' Estimate System, North American Summary & Detail Estimates, Level 2, Current & History Data, Adjusted and Unadjusted, https://www.lseg.com/en/data-analytics/financial-data/company-data/ibes-estimates.

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Figure 1.6. Volatility in equity markets rose significantly in April

Percent

Date Option-implied volatility Realized volatility
1996-01-01 13.4736363636364 11.6663826264131
1996-02-01 15.033 11.4973930524979
1996-03-01 17.762380952381 14.5810666704466
1996-04-01 16.2122222222222 12.2591183530554
1996-05-01 16.1463636363636 11.3233711656671
1996-06-01 16.5035294117647 11.1204336353014
1996-07-01 17.9786363636364 15.0482844244086
1996-08-01 15.7604545454545 13.4443803394265
1996-09-01 16.578 11.1915085002233
1996-10-01 16.2863636363636 9.86931577527414
1996-11-01 15.997 10.2714288415374
1996-12-01 19.2609523809524 13.4372248938374
1997-01-01 19.6166666666667 14.6085661690372
1997-02-01 20.1394736842105 14.8383612518443
1997-03-01 20.17 14.6451027244658
1997-04-01 19.6955 17.1843655855043
1997-05-01 19.9247619047619 16.3833401010459
1997-06-01 20.1942857142857 15.0108530159617
1997-07-01 20.5085714285714 16.1780053573618
1997-08-01 23.0847619047619 18.1343247330154
1997-09-01 23.7994736842105 18.7876855592377
1997-10-01 23.8708695652174 18.8368934847782
1997-11-01 31.9842105263158 24.0347303094833
1997-12-01 26.2763636363636 18.5419513753935
1998-01-01 23.8665 17.9249875270998
1998-02-01 19.9989473684211 15.3820876269045
1998-03-01 20.032380952381 12.6870374325137
1998-04-01 22.1621052631579 13.0208652751673
1998-05-01 20.874 13.9594481627221
1998-06-01 21.6627272727273 15.6129071674663
1998-07-01 20.2326315789474 14.6311064859157
1998-08-01 31.5880952380952 22.8301282402054
1998-09-01 38.132 34.2707896751002
1998-10-01 36.6081818181818 33.0730395851114
1998-11-01 26.223 23.1777975007602
1998-12-01 25.4790909090909 18.9702168626633
1999-01-01 27.9688888888889 19.5363794055045
1999-02-01 28.8226315789474 21.7529161976383
1999-03-01 25.3095652173913 20.6755766686892
1999-04-01 23.4785714285714 19.8806632622962
1999-05-01 26.2045 20.9785251072403
1999-06-01 23.5457142857143 19.2818849755546
1999-07-01 21.0490476190476 16.5655217184788
1999-08-01 24.3236363636364 17.7632588638694
1999-09-01 24.5414285714286 18.9888686977845
1999-10-01 24.0214285714286 20.9314652971119
1999-11-01 21.8180952380952 19.2763427493598
1999-12-01 22.1590909090909 16.9120405923571
2000-01-01 23.202 19.2716616385063
2000-02-01 23.5955 21.8833452622965
2000-03-01 22.7340909090909 24.4155085201582
2000-04-01 27.1642105263158 32.6965575097925
2000-05-01 26.3731818181818 28.6884388056352
2000-06-01 21.54 22.9159887391989
2000-07-01 19.893 17.9987926804767
2000-08-01 18.0886956521739 16.2283438033982
2000-09-01 19.6875 15.2254036428257
2000-10-01 25.2 23.3833145711902
2000-11-01 26.3828571428572 24.8380365427637
2000-12-01 26.5305 25.2669236115473
2001-01-01 24.9185714285714 27.3878257538166
2001-02-01 23.4115789473684 21.5718068049849
2001-03-01 28.5355 26.8375641821688
2001-04-01 28.134 28.2777212962612
2001-05-01 22.9440909090909 21.9312604781119
2001-06-01 20.9404761904762 18.0870248581235
2001-07-01 22.3161904761905 17.4239650588936
2001-08-01 21.8617391304348 16.9886742500906
2001-09-01 35.0653333333333 25.3637193220787
2001-10-01 32.6122727272727 27.4441014003576
2001-11-01 26.6309523809524 23.7044954415676
2001-12-01 23.72 18.8122358973421
2002-01-01 22.2528571428571 16.0866095859066
2002-02-01 22.8757894736842 19.0253599882566
2002-03-01 18.985 18.1633740861285
2002-04-01 19.9004545454546 16.3590711094734
2002-05-01 20.0877272727273 17.4757659321607
2002-06-01 25.271 21.1510291904096
2002-07-01 34.0495454545455 33.8133362246901
2002-08-01 33.7427272727273 38.0071706872692
2002-09-01 37.6475 31.1583928669737
2002-10-01 35.4295454545455 35.116474672263
2002-11-01 28.175 29.8384399414805
2002-12-01 28.2104761904762 23.9863849197033
2003-01-01 27.5063157894737 21.4685594872853
2003-02-01 32.2184210526316 23.2655767413121
2003-03-01 30.6342857142857 24.0282216020679
2003-04-01 23.9919047619048 22.7525916374613
2003-05-01 20.2395238095238 19.4122919583396
2003-06-01 20.362380952381 17.8916651289614
2003-07-01 19.1613636363636 17.9636840542995
2003-08-01 19.2742857142857 17.4531364857128
2003-09-01 19.532380952381 14.6387730759281
2003-10-01 18.0234782608696 14.4092153968176
2003-11-01 17.401052631579 13.1584356370659
2003-12-01 16.8263636363636 11.9101604320165
2004-01-01 15.9533333333333 11.1407726856754
2004-02-01 15.9984210526316 12.4254868199151
2004-03-01 17.6873913043478 13.1182094615701
2004-04-01 15.6985714285714 13.230938738289
2004-05-01 17.705 15.305761809812
2004-06-01 15.3571428571429 12.4773798125418
2004-07-01 15.502380952381 11.5664473294248
2004-08-01 16.6840909090909 12.5187754352403
2004-09-01 14.0809523809524 10.5221933553217
2004-10-01 14.97 10.5487195013259
2004-11-01 13.5771428571429 11.2203067139405
2004-12-01 12.4595454545455 10.5414645569925
2005-01-01 13.438 10.6902223867873
2005-02-01 11.7089473684211 9.97731000116881
2005-03-01 13.1263636363636 10.4595173625617
2005-04-01 14.4590476190476 11.9599170489153
2005-05-01 13.967619047619 13.134962704561
2005-06-01 11.8686363636364 10.8847139593805
2005-07-01 11.049 10.2999425206905
2005-08-01 12.9513043478261 9.67247272228311
2005-09-01 12.6280952380952 10.3359179457296
2005-10-01 14.937619047619 12.9424770586769
2005-11-01 12.147619047619 11.9933023880595
2005-12-01 11.26 9.8675646767045
2006-01-01 12.036 9.75051148838464
2006-02-01 12.4710526315789 10.3966065522215
2006-03-01 11.6939130434783 9.67627571505337
2006-04-01 11.8473684210526 10.1815922289463
2006-05-01 14.4545454545455 11.8837817277853
2006-06-01 16.9186363636364 15.1910703137744
2006-07-01 15.326 13.8217813630381
2006-08-01 13.3517391304348 12.2663516854617
2006-09-01 12.1845 9.58326590346204
2006-10-01 11.3063636363636 8.87557764476634
2006-11-01 10.817619047619 9.05360579923253
2006-12-01 10.9645 9.4815516105604
2007-01-01 11.0425 9.45487445685657
2007-02-01 11.1552631578947 9.09600120956389
2007-03-01 15.1627272727273 14.3399189544368
2007-04-01 12.933 11.4137785767908
2007-05-01 13.2977272727273 9.91931547559794
2007-06-01 14.947619047619 11.4191908344024
2007-07-01 17.2733333333333 13.5257616958797
2007-08-01 25.0260869565217 23.4477060272295
2007-09-01 22.1989473684211 19.7546727191667
2007-10-01 19.115652173913 15.5044799317971
2007-11-01 25.582380952381 21.5245986156506
2007-12-01 21.651 21.0081041138006
2008-01-01 25.8161904761905 25.1595443902524
2008-02-01 25.456 27.9651231111363
2008-03-01 27.1035 26.7467657832922
2008-04-01 21.5627272727273 21.3904728142026
2008-05-01 18.3033333333333 16.8197322926594
2008-06-01 22.1104761904762 17.4002097878696
2008-07-01 24.3213636363636 23.0735219022213
2008-08-01 20.6957142857143 20.3867242085388
2008-09-01 30.2385714285714 30.1329769225049
2008-10-01 61.1773913043478 66.4375306086645
2008-11-01 62.6689473684211 72.3914845671152
2008-12-01 52.405 61.6647280048752
2009-01-01 44.683 43.4520019059782
2009-02-01 45.5705263157895 40.518543180392
2009-03-01 44.7954545454545 42.7584660392607
2009-04-01 38.0638095238095 35.2337515039954
2009-05-01 31.978 29.4171786126785
2009-06-01 29.1404545454546 25.1083170027053
2009-07-01 26.1627272727273 21.5413522573981
2009-08-01 25.3371428571429 19.3430265456017
2009-09-01 24.9266666666667 17.5033795753525
2009-10-01 24.2522727272727 17.5879217536815
2009-11-01 23.789 19.5041722885127
2009-12-01 21.2395454545455 15.2817598718469
2010-01-01 20.6431578947368 12.8528195638169
2010-02-01 22.54 17.9377410860228
2010-03-01 17.7673913043478 14.1445217146874
2010-04-01 17.4242857142857 12.49933835649
2010-05-01 31.9295 27.623734302514
2010-06-01 29.9163636363636 27.0105058621569
2010-07-01 25.5652380952381 23.0430658473967
2010-08-01 24.7459090909091 18.9111566287723
2010-09-01 22.517619047619 16.8525678744506
2010-10-01 20.3733333333333 14.9039767239578
2010-11-01 20.0957142857143 13.9520555250625
2010-12-01 17.5695454545455 11.8535641755217
2011-01-01 17.3155 9.7464942788489
2011-02-01 17.43 10.6387995462264
2011-03-01 20.7234782608696 14.3172829674608
2011-04-01 16.244 12.423717682283
2011-05-01 16.9114285714286 12.3717491992294
2011-06-01 19.1531818181818 13.5716474051953
2011-07-01 19.2275 13.7909467609109
2011-08-01 35.0291304347826 31.7496025501201
2011-09-01 36.53 30.9755161451587
2011-10-01 32.8290476190476 30.1874343127581
2011-11-01 31.9419047619048 25.0381129072767
2011-12-01 25.047619047619 20.6375472260933
2012-01-01 20.228 15.4850780289221
2012-02-01 18.4205 12.421652397967
2012-03-01 16.1672727272727 10.911675916351
2012-04-01 17.823 11.5076964200805
2012-05-01 21.0018181818182 13.7339360343432
2012-06-01 21.1309523809524 15.5818654278295
2012-07-01 17.5652380952381 14.8148544651612
2012-08-01 15.6895652173913 13.1458729504915
2012-09-01 15.2847368421053 10.9870351126288
2012-10-01 16.2761904761905 11.2783559332581
2012-11-01 16.7019047619048 13.8237461390608
2012-12-01 17.307 12.8919251856457
2013-01-01 13.5052380952381 11.7582736519486
2013-02-01 14.0726315789474 9.6520789388797
2013-03-01 13.0315 10.1417958625858
2013-04-01 13.9672727272727 11.4596208567628
2013-05-01 13.4936363636364 11.6195203583621
2013-06-01 17.2715 14.5138444814056
2013-07-01 13.9745454545455 13.4950801392133
2013-08-01 14.21 10.4081993608929
2013-09-01 14.692 10.7019524811059
2013-10-01 15.4078260869565 11.21807726694
2013-11-01 12.924 9.89678706072969
2013-12-01 14.192380952381 9.50637162495375
2014-01-01 14.2409523809524 9.34206468279928
2014-02-01 15.47 11.777987021745
2014-03-01 14.8366666666667 11.6473949449642
2014-04-01 14.1980952380952 12.2112827352147
2014-05-01 12.4752380952381 10.9911143342341
2014-06-01 11.5414285714286 8.2615657654878
2014-07-01 12.2963636363636 7.98671032124111
2014-08-01 13.4919047619048 9.82781264742939
2014-09-01 13.4666666666667 8.81853405753084
2014-10-01 18.0586956521739 15.820748596115
2014-11-01 13.4131578947368 13.3968495779926
2014-12-01 16.2922727272727 12.6774772040865
2015-01-01 19.1195 15.759234398456
2015-02-01 15.9042105263158 15.0602811262193
2015-03-01 14.8127272727273 11.9078976508156
2015-04-01 13.4947619047619 11.364703822241
2015-05-01 13.3385 10.8719816234663
2015-06-01 14.3395454545455 10.1851195032933
2015-07-01 14.3527272727273 11.2006859008976
2015-08-01 19.4280952380952 17.1575949681695
2015-09-01 24.3771428571429 26.9296250994919
2015-10-01 16.7895454545455 19.5585685909946
2015-11-01 16.21 14.1244315105062
2015-12-01 18.0254545454546 14.7644061225139
2016-01-01 23.7178947368421 20.9791454336608
2016-02-01 22.517 23.7915987957633
2016-03-01 15.8490909090909 17.4425417601007
2016-04-01 14.3004761904762 12.5688435435181
2016-05-01 14.8528571428571 11.4571173116767
2016-06-01 17.7745454545455 11.1228760530755
2016-07-01 13.1585 11.5387372171738
2016-08-01 12.3995652173913 8.42569076951303
2016-09-01 14.2195238095238 9.50205482713928
2016-10-01 14.5852380952381 9.86532250191401
2016-11-01 15.2361904761905 10.7473982312473
2016-12-01 12.472380952381 9.01046468766452
2017-01-01 11.6085 8.06882423610752
2017-02-01 11.5305263157895 7.16870773751209
2017-03-01 11.8978260869565 7.20617297299502
2017-04-01 13.1363157894737 8.49345771011784
2017-05-01 10.8622727272727 7.24746919120191
2017-06-01 10.5136363636364 7.01321932247443
2017-07-01 10.2645 7.12022191727823
2017-08-01 11.975652173913 6.90783729936423
2017-09-01 10.438 6.54114068424878
2017-10-01 10.1254545454545 5.27380869791667
2017-11-01 10.5404761904762 5.84469197499055
2017-12-01 10.2645 7.23486783905455
2018-01-01 11.062380952381 6.77529905899922
2018-02-01 22.4647368421053 20.5721504465433
2018-03-01 19.0238095238095 19.2615640834143
2018-04-01 18.267619047619 19.5805484458155
2018-05-01 14.1245454545455 14.8103746552954
2018-06-01 13.6780952380952 11.0452836289463
2018-07-01 13.147619047619 10.0285163258459
2018-08-01 12.5469565217391 8.27082885707491
2018-09-01 12.9105263157895 8.19849332962807
2018-10-01 19.3521739130435 14.6775080483991
2018-11-01 19.3890476190476 20.3406487666913
2018-12-01 24.9531578947368 24.2317455199585
2019-01-01 19.572380952381 24.8129962087006
2019-02-01 15.2347368421053 16.160335642245
2019-03-01 14.4852380952381 12.5404682529623
2019-04-01 12.9490476190476 10.4208093031692
2019-05-01 16.7218181818182 11.9608030633009
2019-06-01 15.836 12.3023868735698
2019-07-01 13.3059090909091 9.34286115048788
2019-08-01 18.9790909090909 15.5076652123252
2019-09-01 15.559 13.7217017005773
2019-10-01 15.4665217391304 12.9385150083962
2019-11-01 12.5235 9.15404833940475
2019-12-01 13.7566666666667 8.39927473012052
2020-01-01 13.9409523809524 7.98355383933072
2020-02-01 19.6289473684211 12.2363524170413
2020-03-01 57.7368181818182 56.5576489890526
2020-04-01 41.4538095238095 53.4093532395918
2020-05-01 30.897 32.7557033274097
2020-06-01 31.1195454545455 25.6242914999863
2020-07-01 26.8404545454546 21.5027856015503
2020-08-01 22.8895238095238 15.3688330002694
2020-09-01 27.6476190476191 20.5415056161705
2020-10-01 29.4386363636364 19.5874192176127
2020-11-01 24.9955 20.0373094749187
2020-12-01 22.3740909090909 14.5490367388434
2021-01-01 24.91 13.9559636273483
2021-02-01 23.1405263157895 15.0591193181503
2021-03-01 21.8430434782609 18.376610114616
2021-04-01 17.4161904761905 13.2311277091831
2021-05-01 19.7605 12.8250046520734
2021-06-01 16.9568181818182 10.6030434355783
2021-07-01 17.6033333333333 9.52628737012905
2021-08-01 17.4727272727273 8.99518903255029
2021-09-01 19.8247619047619 9.90577855549413
2021-10-01 17.8714285714286 13.1453941094882
2021-11-01 18.5004761904762 10.7568943955781
2021-12-01 21.3545454545455 15.7953228575284
2022-01-01 23.181 17.9279217723941
2022-02-01 25.7484210526316 24.0628353572816
2022-03-01 26.9686956521739 24.4146401835716
2022-04-01 24.3735 19.5809876967717
2022-05-01 29.4457142857143 27.6665328089264
2022-06-01 28.1 26.5745239351029
2022-07-01 24.8685 24.1776928217589
2022-08-01 22.1695652173913 18.5849639157118
2022-09-01 27.4061904761905 21.3713137603152
2022-10-01 30.0057142857143 24.7818232076692
2022-11-01 23.4361904761905 23.4660840487657
2022-12-01 21.7842857142857 20.075307715754
2023-01-01 20.203 18.8729675113249
2023-02-01 20.0621052631579 18.0187056753452
2023-03-01 21.644347826087 18.4046297806671
2023-04-01 17.8178947368421 14.9685321310962
2023-05-01 17.6440909090909 12.8507754139519
2023-06-01 13.9942857142857 11.6559178135537
2023-07-01 13.944 9.79814140957003
2023-08-01 15.8539130434783 10.9967947277519
2023-09-01 15.241 11.2285405536224
2023-10-01 18.8877272727273 14.0328958201029
2023-11-01 14.0771428571429 12.8555024853563
2023-12-01 12.7185 10.5918721135995
2024-01-01 13.3952380952381 10.1508047641219
2024-02-01 13.944 10.2370017412197
2024-03-01 13.7875 10.2081788808302
2024-04-01 16.1377272727273 12.0375046447328
2024-05-01 13.0904545454545 11.7691199409997
2024-06-01 12.6768421052632 10.5634767482736
2024-07-01 14.47 10.8115390060073
2024-08-01 19.3122727272727 16.4265079349142
2024-09-01 17.8115789473684 14.7225265790269
2024-10-01 19.9608695652174 12.1715790927147
2024-11-01 16.121 11.0342699543303
2024-12-01 15.8661904761905 10.828263579162
2025-01-01 16.746 14.3311601633289
2025-02-01 17.0521052631579 13.6992233065134
2025-03-01 21.8414285714286 19.5753998925692
2025-04-01 36.6466666666667 34.2017233826864

Note: Realized volatility is computed from an exponentially weighted moving average of 5-minute daily realized variances with 75 percent of the weight distributed over the past 20 business days. Median refers to the median option-implied volatility. Values are averaged within a calendar month, except for the value of the last month of the series, which is averaged through the data close date.

Source: Cboe Volatility Index®(VIX®) accessed via Bloomberg Finance L.P.; Federal Reserve Board staff estimates.

Return to text
Figure 1.7. Corporate bond yields rose but remained near their median for the past 30 years

This is a line chart titled "Corporate bond yields rose but remained near their median for the past 30 years". The x-axis measures time and ranges from 1997 to 2025. The data are monthly. The y-axis ranges from 0 to 24 percent. There are two variables plotted on the chart. The first line is labeled "High-yield" and is designated by a black line. It begins at around 9.5 percent in 1997 and rises gradually to around 13 percent in 2002. It falls to around 8 percent in 2003 and remains there until 2007. The curve rises to 11 in early 2008, before spiking to about 22 percent in late 2008. The series falls sharply to about 9 percent in 2009 before decreasing more slowly to 7 percent in 2011. The series generally remains around 6 percent through 2020, with local spikes to around 9 in late 2011, early 2016, and early 2020. The series stays around 4 percent in 2021 before rising gradually to about 9.5 percent by September 2022. The series decreases slightly throughout 2023 before jumping back up to 9 percent in October 2023. It hovers between about 7 and 8 percent in 2024 and through March of 2025. The series ends with a sharp jump from 7.5 percent in March 2025 to 8.4 percent in April 2025. The second line is labeled "Triple-B" and is designated by a blue line. It begins at around 7 percent in 1997, fluctuates between 6 and 9 percent until 2002, where it begins to gradually rise from about 4.7 percent in early 2003 to about 6.5 percent in May 2008. It then steeply increases to 10 percent in October 2008. The series falls sharply to around 5 percent in late 2009. It remains between 3 and 5 percent from 2010 to 2019. It has a spike in early 2020 from 2 to 5 percent then decreases back to around 2 percent in October 2020. It hovers at the level through the end of 2021. The series then rises to 6.3 percent by the end of 2022 and falls back to around 5 percent in early 2023. It spikes up in the last few months of 2023 with a local maximum value of about 6.7 percent in October 2023. The series hovers between 5.5 and 6 percent from then until September 2024, where it falls to about 4.9 percent. The series stabilizes again around 5.5 in the first few months of 2025, but ends with a spike up to 5.8 percent in April 2025.

Note: The triple-B series reflects the effective yield of the ICE Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML) triple-B U.S. Corporate Index (C0A4), and the high-yield series reflects the effective yield of the ICE BofAML U.S. High Yield Index (H0A0). Values are reported as of month-end, except for the value of the last month of the series, which is reported as of the data close date.

Source: ICE Data Indices, LLC, used with permission.

Return to text
Figure 1.8. Corporate bond spreads increased to moderate levels

This is a line chart titled "Corporate bond spreads increased to moderate levels". The x-axis measures time and ranges from 1997 to 2025. The data are monthly. There are two variables plotted on the chart. The first line is labeled "High-yield" and is designated by a black line. This line corresponds to the values on the right y-axis, which ranges from 0 to 24 percentage points. It begins at around 3 percentage points in 1997 and rises steadily, with local peaks in 1999, late 2000, and mid-2001, to around 10 percentage points by 2002. The series falls to 4 percentage points by the end of 2004 and then declines slowly to around 2 percent until 2007. The series then spikes rapidly up to its peak in November 2008, around 20 percentage points. It then falls steeply throughout 2009 to around 6 percentage points by December 2009. It continues to fall to about 4.5 percentage points in 2011. In late 2011, the series spikes to 8 percentage points, before falling steadily to around 3.5 percentage points in 2014. The series rises gradually from 2014 to 2016 to nearly 8 percentage points in February 2016, then falls to around 4 percentage points again in 2017 and remains there through 2019. In March 2020, the series jumps to almost 9 percentage points then drops to about 3.8 percentage points in December 2020. It then steadily decreases to about 3 percentage points in April 2021 and remains there until early 2022. The series then begins rising gradually again to around 5 percentage points in October 2022, then decreases slightly to just below 4 percentage points by April 2023. The series shows a slight uptick closer to a value of 4 percentage points in September 2023 and declines to 3 percentage points by March 2024. The series remains at about 3 percentage points through February 2025 and jumps to 4.2 percentage points where the series ends in April 2025. The second line is labeled "Triple-B" and is designated by a blue line. This line corresponds to the values on the left y-axis, which ranges from 0 to 12 percentage points. It begins at just under 1 percentage point in 1997, rises to around 3.5 percentage points by the end of 2002. The series declines to around 1 percentage point by the start of 2004 and remains there until mid-2007. From there, it rapidly rises to its peak in December 2008 of around 7.6 percentage points. The series then falls steeply in 2009 to around 3 percentage points and declines further to below 2 percentage points in 2011. The series jumps to 3 percentage points in mid-2011 before declining slowly to 1.5 percentage points in 2014. The series then rises gradually to around 3 percentage points in early 2016, then declines to around 1 percentage point by early 2018. The series remains around 1.5 percentage points from 2018 through early 2020 before jumping to almost 4 percentage points in March 2020. The series then decreases to 1 percent by June 2021 and remains there through mid-2022, where it climbs to around 2 percentage points in June 2022. The value gently declines throughout 2023 and early 2024, hovering at 1.1 percentage points from March to September 2024. The series dips just below 1 percentage point in late 2024 and early 2025, then jumps up to about 1.4 percentage points at its last point in April 2025.

Note: The triple-B series reflects the option-adjusted spread of the ICE Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML) triple-B U.S. Corporate Index (C0A4), and the high-yield series reflects the option-adjusted spread of the ICE BofAML U.S. High Yield Index (H0A0). Values are reported as of month-end, except for the value of the last month of the series, which is reported as of the data close date.

Source: ICE Data Indices, LLC, used with permission.

Return to text
Figure 1.9. The excess bond premium was near its long-run average

Percentage points

Date Excess Bond Premium
1997-01-01 -0.334227607729455
1997-02-01 -0.451242416644275
1997-03-01 -0.476851425780151
1997-04-01 -0.436784421006352
1997-05-01 -0.435750247881388
1997-06-01 -0.534435264829862
1997-07-01 -0.502475419204846
1997-08-01 -0.499440080830634
1997-09-01 -0.548265878257605
1997-10-01 -0.428096455295686
1997-11-01 -0.323350927431393
1997-12-01 -0.388981531478256
1998-01-01 -0.348883913233786
1998-02-01 -0.324301676648552
1998-03-01 -0.371844978343906
1998-04-01 -0.400477877397176
1998-05-01 -0.364838588482512
1998-06-01 -0.325162464057093
1998-07-01 -0.28907583170046
1998-08-01 0.114156938505207
1998-09-01 0.103267178338016
1998-10-01 0.229643698250257
1998-11-01 0.203173932330114
1998-12-01 0.0690207416870896
1999-01-01 0.0628653926914162
1999-02-01 -0.152767346916417
1999-03-01 -0.150060552782944
1999-04-01 -0.191009006065371
1999-05-01 -0.184292399177725
1999-06-01 -0.124559490311188
1999-07-01 -0.0743316684580793
1999-08-01 -0.0162819314955569
1999-09-01 0.111807817648098
1999-10-01 0.129015715835488
1999-11-01 0.0934619429824894
1999-12-01 -0.132228490472992
2000-01-01 0.0463832735399214
2000-02-01 0.14141957256277
2000-03-01 0.415410210000452
2000-04-01 0.570269820145717
2000-05-01 0.74949878781214
2000-06-01 0.784636374401646
2000-07-01 0.869419367643141
2000-08-01 1.01845701674818
2000-09-01 1.13135085677373
2000-10-01 1.53178255577233
2000-11-01 1.61545981128975
2000-12-01 1.61092251477083
2001-01-01 1.15243089072982
2001-02-01 1.17290718305244
2001-03-01 1.10543616876601
2001-04-01 0.929387252921396
2001-05-01 0.788614031485805
2001-06-01 1.01778124267345
2001-07-01 0.791071810002181
2001-08-01 0.762071307591929
2001-09-01 1.22462934522228
2001-10-01 1.04119483489494
2001-11-01 -0.029119584680966
2001-12-01 0.42491864239714
2002-01-01 0.575511817305089
2002-02-01 0.771767446678171
2002-03-01 0.296495000888302
2002-04-01 0.411438523657115
2002-05-01 0.501689276241221
2002-06-01 0.945144740149205
2002-07-01 1.54387358333263
2002-08-01 1.44195390241377
2002-09-01 1.62161431714419
2002-10-01 1.43708879762878
2002-11-01 1.03898428299576
2002-12-01 0.89338610658943
2003-01-01 0.839112560827876
2003-02-01 0.637285156822477
2003-03-01 0.144729280339097
2003-04-01 0.0305920461277838
2003-05-01 -0.46959966272538
2003-06-01 -0.398137034830747
2003-07-01 -1.02296401881652
2003-08-01 -0.21573127369228
2003-09-01 -0.54301730673072
2003-10-01 -0.530658437115554
2003-11-01 -0.551447820606149
2003-12-01 -0.533247254062249
2004-01-01 -0.715497585740688
2004-02-01 -0.34910156420873
2004-03-01 -0.52576279129305
2004-04-01 -0.738024038365189
2004-05-01 -0.368743348577344
2004-06-01 -0.387274954282498
2004-07-01 -0.326977650272596
2004-08-01 -0.430898503588496
2004-09-01 -0.548547788778997
2004-10-01 -0.537428969936891
2004-11-01 -0.677766315623196
2004-12-01 -0.720978868887441
2005-01-01 -0.700809583178627
2005-02-01 -0.912876653300977
2005-03-01 -0.618264160994613
2005-04-01 -0.360863304871798
2005-05-01 -0.291419768404143
2005-06-01 -0.436059522225026
2005-07-01 -0.539600065831158
2005-08-01 -0.536983907755088
2005-09-01 -0.449767297714214
2005-10-01 -0.329347402697201
2005-11-01 -0.297583155417278
2005-12-01 -0.264729212615956
2006-01-01 -0.348565621650217
2006-02-01 -0.30714845373576
2006-03-01 -0.389192056454296
2006-04-01 -0.435635871740144
2006-05-01 -0.343056337261942
2006-06-01 -0.350041301094105
2006-07-01 -0.259547628190043
2006-08-01 -0.288636554201053
2006-09-01 -0.339333538884251
2006-10-01 -0.374763601944351
2006-11-01 -0.345756014407327
2006-12-01 -0.469929647852685
2007-01-01 -0.5344219211789
2007-02-01 -0.534908263123359
2007-03-01 -0.358161508032892
2007-04-01 -0.358828530222395
2007-05-01 -0.565879934763441
2007-06-01 -0.356063399187168
2007-07-01 0.0511266137971211
2007-08-01 0.160997818037674
2007-09-01 0.0937066806669198
2007-10-01 0.00866025541819937
2007-11-01 0.359684700373168
2007-12-01 0.503590771097163
2008-01-01 0.733478906428735
2008-02-01 0.935866910765587
2008-03-01 1.15936756402811
2008-04-01 0.684018625440006
2008-05-01 0.685075142865519
2008-06-01 0.832795289246826
2008-07-01 1.08943391229956
2008-08-01 1.23661823472843
2008-09-01 1.82286068969746
2008-10-01 3.54477108051491
2008-11-01 3.38031286206119
2008-12-01 3.5123658087742
2009-01-01 2.89030110158281
2009-02-01 3.23454311121481
2009-03-01 2.81826263975564
2009-04-01 2.27178105909266
2009-05-01 1.40814963945841
2009-06-01 0.966890442194156
2009-07-01 0.361630203674331
2009-08-01 0.0945376476487056
2009-09-01 0.0644209900705173
2009-10-01 -0.137893856912179
2009-11-01 -0.00777215305739754
2009-12-01 -0.460156901622689
2010-01-01 -0.205389943155953
2010-02-01 -0.0123005855509213
2010-03-01 -0.165335343438306
2010-04-01 -0.275387982339888
2010-05-01 -0.112628999329547
2010-06-01 0.0531881493879256
2010-07-01 0.161324044142742
2010-08-01 -0.260022666917538
2010-09-01 -0.00770068449440675
2010-10-01 -0.024248440417705
2010-11-01 -0.138495432264541
2010-12-01 -0.402342205198523
2011-01-01 -0.0439923455179287
2011-02-01 -0.280739001646694
2011-03-01 -0.320334304948329
2011-04-01 -0.276852676298653
2011-05-01 -0.15440160248085
2011-06-01 -0.0322608715637789
2011-07-01 -0.0712783253569258
2011-08-01 -0.0762221407107115
2011-09-01 0.457976107082804
2011-10-01 -0.0655772136332318
2011-11-01 0.508201587273323
2011-12-01 0.288130003575878
2012-01-01 0.184153399926481
2012-02-01 0.0514126856261776
2012-03-01 -0.327161653285949
2012-04-01 -0.160289433945542
2012-05-01 -0.0583236783398169
2012-06-01 0.165560837369695
2012-07-01 -0.00485175944582528
2012-08-01 -0.197841709364146
2012-09-01 -0.148089487283205
2012-10-01 -0.17945240168672
2012-11-01 -0.0507165614589096
2012-12-01 -0.164263251618356
2013-01-01 -0.102722547768689
2013-02-01 -0.042365976109441
2013-03-01 -0.104286365381562
2013-04-01 -0.133509937987105
2013-05-01 -0.486877507389675
2013-06-01 -0.337828340301192
2013-07-01 -0.0247311598648388
2013-08-01 -0.127459172901076
2013-09-01 -0.139350241948108
2013-10-01 -0.0573591341697677
2013-11-01 -0.0212164117930622
2013-12-01 -0.173450850450141
2014-01-01 -0.315367779586151
2014-02-01 -0.22903922868331
2014-03-01 -0.290648571607911
2014-04-01 -0.370646997819979
2014-05-01 -0.381890205837234
2014-06-01 -0.318805533047346
2014-07-01 -0.320346664413241
2014-08-01 -0.313940974098387
2014-09-01 -0.210349366295799
2014-10-01 -0.207524442997323
2014-11-01 0.0639864022687466
2014-12-01 0.100241305421918
2015-01-01 -0.0120754500970093
2015-02-01 -0.258309219322138
2015-03-01 -0.106402385805281
2015-04-01 0.0126668179816019
2015-05-01 0.0562054561364
2015-06-01 0.151041597054005
2015-07-01 0.218372165526348
2015-08-01 0.401624846734765
2015-09-01 0.540489022929175
2015-10-01 0.421512828482394
2015-11-01 0.510078434894926
2015-12-01 0.688633690566286
2016-01-01 0.92666723604919
2016-02-01 0.95454099589106
2016-03-01 0.573454991422278
2016-04-01 0.230009513595345
2016-05-01 0.242048340574106
2016-06-01 0.0662261103910522
2016-07-01 0.010455961852307
2016-08-01 -0.028159684207115
2016-09-01 -0.0756070754791174
2016-10-01 -0.0841602089021554
2016-11-01 -0.699887840512544
2016-12-01 -0.248955729570947
2017-01-01 -0.2030188535322
2017-02-01 -0.187890104098095
2017-03-01 -0.174834273081928
2017-04-01 -0.128813307884075
2017-05-01 -0.17582843408374
2017-06-01 -0.136175148876175
2017-07-01 -0.162638650051836
2017-08-01 -0.0895404398217714
2017-09-01 -0.261609748567902
2017-10-01 -0.225201710478948
2017-11-01 -0.14184885409833
2017-12-01 -0.200722028206548
2018-01-01 -0.39480157801073
2018-02-01 -0.246769885950999
2018-03-01 -0.106330996833341
2018-04-01 -0.278571737874585
2018-05-01 -0.190916470306186
2018-06-01 0.023238225606717
2018-07-01 -0.129533376055208
2018-08-01 -0.0971521909643815
2018-09-01 -0.176362916861677
2018-10-01 -0.00782976461831053
2018-11-01 0.140387218819653
2018-12-01 0.334635235919819
2019-01-01 0.162775084183031
2019-02-01 0.0491338508759236
2019-03-01 -0.126891818061828
2019-04-01 -0.021497343156291
2019-05-01 -0.021306592598431
2019-06-01 -0.00748600324466175
2019-07-01 -0.0578454432255722
2019-08-01 -0.157639123400591
2019-09-01 -0.237392590929017
2019-10-01 -0.233591679234639
2019-11-01 -0.184780912245693
2019-12-01 -0.302680472245892
2020-01-01 -0.25034805916616
2020-02-01 -0.14750431495316
2020-03-01 1.23333435533859
2020-04-01 0.659085507743011
2020-05-01 0.39077072749944
2020-06-01 0.0459941949305387
2020-07-01 -0.171762642654785
2020-08-01 -0.29677027044534
2020-09-01 -0.0205466907559311
2020-10-01 -0.225173583526859
2020-11-01 -0.484074468245418
2020-12-01 -0.5265529834126
2021-01-01 -0.674407669344442
2021-02-01 -0.948815647732253
2021-03-01 -0.761326260672507
2021-04-01 -0.505527822114627
2021-05-01 -0.443574777629721
2021-06-01 -0.596164852575409
2021-07-01 -0.561095311207987
2021-08-01 -0.490501692241668
2021-09-01 -0.649930516572859
2021-10-01 -0.528570421941225
2021-11-01 -0.444065642157737
2021-12-01 -0.448643129111453
2022-01-01 -0.344955272490518
2022-02-01 -0.207224945060309
2022-03-01 -0.779169800488253
2022-04-01 -0.279403724941905
2022-05-01 -0.117710754809304
2022-06-01 0.0912511048725029
2022-07-01 0.00150656459414211
2022-08-01 -0.0281990177328559
2022-09-01 0.0486619780220943
2022-10-01 0.0935552063592173
2022-11-01 -0.217594128421909
2022-12-01 -0.0165864939478544
2023-01-01 -0.0408096045404089
2023-02-01 -0.143576079732233
2023-03-01 -0.186457789992223
2023-04-01 0.173211515216811
2023-05-01 0.130235807657891
2023-06-01 0.167512364588221
2023-07-01 0.0130985402545922
2023-08-01 0.0663890718121349
2023-09-01 -0.0102310768625777
2023-10-01 0.218788102606541
2023-11-01 -0.0905916865237941
2023-12-01 -0.234704890637623
2024-01-01 -0.0848392730844212
2024-02-01 -0.138609200216357
2024-03-01 -0.102149346783235
2024-04-01 -0.206796336946926
2024-05-01 -0.145068917209335
2024-06-01 -0.039852352252489
2024-07-01 -0.10702878195846
2024-08-01 -0.060552699819324
2024-09-01 -0.117662046991565
2024-10-01 -0.363359091240608
2024-11-01 -0.235909892848728
2024-12-01 -0.45896341593383
2025-01-01 -0.314527906021495
2025-02-01 -0.269759663537917
2025-03-01 -0.0593301184938122
2025-04-01 0.0129439863659984

Note: The excess bond premium (EBP) is a measure of bond market investors' risk sentiment. It is derived as the residual of a regression that models corporate bond spreads after controlling for expected default losses. By construction, its historical mean is 0. Positive (negative) EBP values indicate that investors' risk appetite is below (above) its historical mean.

Source: Federal Reserve Board staff calculations based on Lehman Brothers Fixed Income Database (Warga); Intercontinental Exchange, Inc., ICE Data Services; Center for Research in Security Prices, CRSP/Compustat Merged Database, Wharton Research Data Services; S&P Global, Compustat.

Return to text
Figure 1.10. Spreads on leveraged loans stayed moderately below their average over the past decade

Percentage points

Date B (monthly) B (weekly) BB (monthly) BB (weekly)
1997-01-31     2.09188813027478  
1997-02-28     2.08178410192779  
1997-03-31     2.0821313539782  
1997-04-30     2.13128050966926  
1997-05-31     2.15663678327004  
1997-06-30     2.16723470638971  
1997-07-31 2.27865930277876   1.91211795426737  
1997-08-31 2.25519091192546   1.84799350267688  
1997-09-30 2.28226436624624   1.89031225692967  
1997-10-31 2.54870194148935   1.95239138987806  
1997-11-30 2.55227719847765   1.91123857847702  
1997-12-31 2.57766307859505   1.8853121084073  
1998-01-31 2.58328670414448   2.03962118865891  
1998-02-28 2.57724045434183   2.07686434704832  
1998-03-31 2.61434693144427   2.0142442090996  
1998-04-30 2.60471125675774   2.01964906051112  
1998-05-31 2.64727726013339   2.1742561357748  
1998-06-30 2.63838491070021   2.2804004021624  
1998-07-31 2.65298114421288   2.25461214228082  
1998-08-31 2.75105860252154   2.33040625069404  
1998-09-30 2.94176293011435   2.50368333817936  
1998-10-31 3.06324577222541   2.63021214384542  
1998-11-30 3.34669581632647   2.68688948779824  
1998-12-31 3.23167824969875   2.5574278061721  
1999-01-31 3.20045350392008   2.62222216268432  
1999-02-28 3.21252047029818   2.54969107864208  
1999-03-31 3.57072031339457   2.48431663439138  
1999-04-30 3.9333620829635   2.65158887562905  
1999-05-31 3.79734775882652   2.84294180372083  
1999-06-30 3.85661993243559   2.84376703464754  
1999-07-31 4.09639914591775   2.94888708534177  
1999-08-31 4.45692369680667   2.99404771578472  
1999-09-30 4.74567730353751   3.96252458533367  
1999-10-31 4.96156505726983   4.08542737863742  
1999-11-30 4.74194866264647   3.90885983736204  
1999-12-31 6.07594580603178   4.01508894466472  
2000-01-31 6.24211266836964   4.07331847721963  
2000-02-29 6.0743165320234   4.11406244684139  
2000-03-31 6.05480803120477   3.43483075505671  
2000-04-30 5.4393059506722   3.51119269263113  
2000-05-31 5.2455597903178   3.25902829785642  
2000-06-30 5.67158559945934   3.11633077776893  
2000-07-31 6.03340100401027   3.00189608969078  
2000-08-31 5.72920206373075   3.02041146177765  
2000-09-30 6.65220806624019   3.19167801986832  
2000-10-31 6.90970681334637   3.25572404050639  
2000-11-30 7.30996411733616   3.0709693072654  
2000-12-31 6.68883659623133   3.04620716632122  
2001-01-31 6.26216559265882   2.95059470390094  
2001-02-28 5.95037410707916   2.91025142523614  
2001-03-31 6.8348554997985   2.94681492043774  
2001-04-30 6.70873676752182   2.95507753634301  
2001-05-31 6.49519380030705   2.94735515085341  
2001-06-30 6.62316783543957   2.98929677062879  
2001-07-31 6.71076176682289   3.03049463891544  
2001-08-31 6.50998425898807   2.99783463202895  
2001-09-30 7.41861800862683   3.34538512033514  
2001-10-31 8.70615523076835   3.50811202527628  
2001-11-30 6.81765816329182   3.1143087844617  
2001-12-31 6.21014368310919   3.08920974701227  
2002-01-31 5.89286230863572   3.05192671026051  
2002-02-28 5.50244168261337   3.09142866939944  
2002-03-31 5.2230700434849   3.06572116988246  
2002-04-30 4.91982091590623   2.93946018349618  
2002-05-31 5.62215768952538   2.95233394415463  
2002-06-30 5.90371031672073   2.99329172692435  
2002-07-31 6.63147354763437   3.37911052029842  
2002-08-31 6.52683651010467   3.71526740579213  
2002-09-30 6.63805299967334   3.75018611807546  
2002-10-31 7.37496079911215   4.63927393752635  
2002-11-30 6.71848802934704   4.13735824720685  
2002-12-31 6.58138167838912   3.51504977973325  
2003-01-31 6.1042887123579   3.6008317889486  
2003-02-28 6.29662598070628   3.55664378996593  
2003-03-31 6.03170446252915   3.56692318005584  
2003-04-30 5.10701592299812   3.58065733646884  
2003-05-31 4.65926353155153   3.35162084074896  
2003-06-30 4.47566585183824   3.24248905217641  
2003-07-31 4.51259015396569   3.03234954878876  
2003-08-31 4.72497007493186   3.00626932126184  
2003-09-30 4.97967971238535   2.98081491715672  
2003-10-31 4.82321686517537   2.93755889404213  
2003-11-30 4.77608795632832   2.85310817323464  
2003-12-31 4.51467928453276   2.6096842608013  
2004-01-31 4.03029588240263   2.50584845765378  
2004-02-29 4.20273622017769   2.45050495529649  
2004-03-31 3.91740711424247   2.38195219076694  
2004-04-30 3.91963700739703   2.33385804691638  
2004-05-28 4.06261763945341   2.40125276014603  
2004-06-25 3.770043862382   2.34405188017961  
2004-07-30 3.84362793338027   2.25514115056385  
2004-08-31 3.69002375710118   2.20174843523389  
2004-09-30 3.6132191586509   2.13629916371444  
2004-10-29 3.42314267259918   2.10181111511617  
2004-11-30 3.25822348403558   2.07276369311587  
2004-12-31 3.20597759869138   2.01421096639184  
2005-01-31 3.25257792381212   1.98007779319212  
2005-02-25 3.14236991707397   1.93754573405074  
2005-03-31 3.04703913863471   1.85071831549634  
2005-04-29 3.29521581578657   1.82632886600368  
2005-05-31 3.12460567509078   1.86077029367427  
2005-06-30 3.0989292840778   1.84082502050528  
2005-07-29 3.03893426657107   1.76522563810955  
2005-08-30 2.97701212387517   1.68452592457589  
2005-09-30 2.95968475602158   1.72581908938116  
2005-10-28 3.00461148758371   1.77175634695531  
2005-11-30 2.89325453111939   1.78389317184715  
2005-12-30 2.8126312452552   1.80844276129604  
2006-01-31 2.82383799143358   1.74509262913098  
2006-02-28 2.78175102015367   1.68153963246369  
2006-03-31 2.73977196409467   1.68006845983146  
2006-04-28 2.7374360091284   1.66051441311656  
2006-05-31 2.67311713249498   1.72787218226183  
2006-06-30 2.67443850599523   1.8352632973603  
2006-07-28 2.69880906374307   1.87550444857827  
2006-08-31 2.74011534139188   1.86821573022612  
2006-09-29 2.73862697147573   1.86028664985925  
2006-10-31 2.69793073232383   1.82781796313336  
2006-11-30 2.70284182597395   1.96649848866957  
2006-12-29 2.72599794125974   1.94127586989883  
2007-01-31 2.6009438606843   1.91399043749182  
2007-02-28 2.5272169246271   1.74093261911432  
2007-03-30 2.4927885532305   1.77072853120909  
2007-04-27 2.46445680735925   1.79786483048767  
2007-05-31 2.41101261501855   1.7854775964612  
2007-06-29 2.69801407467645   2.01031142193302  
2007-07-31 3.47862536221395   2.82408782626828  
2007-08-31 3.5937015877151   2.99739196770473  
2007-09-28 3.34114476544724   2.71172116173131  
2007-10-26 3.28502814719285   2.63790557145956  
2007-11-30 3.85693642989592   3.06270059562676  
2007-12-28 4.15882970451708   2.92911429296445  
2008-01-31 4.97580601761539   3.74354717570948  
2008-02-29 6.07321224924927   4.37609661511741  
2008-03-28 7.20862322105508   4.32482406795875  
2008-04-30 6.34801131263565   3.68216495273447  
2008-05-30 6.37950640066329   3.58771647847705  
2008-06-27 6.39477656025946   3.86289048424729  
2008-07-31 7.17316958878979   4.17916907289259  
2008-08-29 7.65469664955774   4.23328471212778  
2008-09-30 10.607979887877   5.941421105947  
2008-10-31 17.0496957424426   9.27448359334444  
2008-11-28 20.8910378938561   11.0334418958842  
2008-12-31 24.7612246563106   11.4703036462376  
2009-01-30 20.6985407092928   8.74457510422384  
2009-02-27 20.7549427316504   7.85357321044109  
2009-03-31 20.3194044491426   7.79174615240187  
2009-04-30 15.786038192821   5.7679907102825  
2009-05-29 12.3996603533352   5.56070162593438  
2009-06-30 10.2336164578227   4.85609147918706  
2009-07-31 8.49779936832999   4.18603261946884  
2009-08-31 7.80796562290773   4.13370667387195  
2009-09-30 6.96202796956235   4.00687340822193  
2009-10-30 6.36999188965138   4.19524810650038  
2009-11-30 6.70409102583303   4.52667154088844  
2009-12-31 6.02043666937183   3.88209813583743  
2010-01-29 5.67379035809451   3.69984828297773  
2010-02-26 5.7822661128449   3.81346069657269  
2010-03-31 5.27419835045083   3.49925432468838  
2010-04-30 5.0460927826293   3.42850473957399  
2010-05-28 6.10543623024698   3.98869269820655  
2010-06-30 6.42705157683265   4.16663178231691  
2010-07-30 5.98086462113477   4.01401196700854  
2010-08-31 5.98119702611061   4.00699099853277  
2010-09-30 5.61969456662555   3.88035423998445  
2010-10-29 5.22023899583472   3.65819695629145  
2010-11-30 5.61476070096215   3.70954513195812  
2010-12-31 5.28999708060695   3.68691684025719  
2011-01-31 4.80097016558672   3.50604518273776  
2011-02-28 4.81988837128684   3.52192607285771  
2011-03-31 4.85444457487651   3.43637521065588  
2011-04-29 4.89480425026024   3.41062736021962  
2011-05-31 5.04115512498801   3.57179875459206  
2011-06-30 5.3503277520567   3.81206875808854  
2011-07-29 5.42496965934118   3.82019930449133  
2011-08-31 6.75122837180944   5.11095175061018  
2011-09-30 6.84634418450028   4.68831852521755  
2011-10-31 6.05515839539509   4.01878680390856  
2011-11-30 6.53995760069879   4.24431121818214  
2011-12-30 6.33434552748561   4.15559112077351  
2012-01-31 5.70928828158087   3.85459973600913  
2012-02-29 5.33490847175098   3.80114370520161  
2012-03-30 5.37403609249873   3.75743553343684  
2012-04-30 5.38119550782858   3.91407037181226  
2012-05-31 5.86109397101384   4.26256828632616  
2012-06-29 5.79267347095032   4.24860079202893  
2012-07-31 5.87794053904916   4.10026247259039  
2012-08-31 5.69416190819523   4.16761212907391  
2012-09-28 5.5476911767617   3.96244043750308  
2012-10-31 5.49088784138084   3.8331065872443  
2012-11-30 5.60407425671063   3.83601469037822  
2012-12-31 5.49233823127293   3.84047115766707  
2013-01-31 5.28405064001766   3.71937944101957  
2013-02-28 5.32035062291634   3.861849518314  
2013-03-28 5.13598413524542   3.72611153995014  
2013-04-30 5.0383598162799   3.78662384641244  
2013-05-31 4.86938408394411   3.62152863963582  
2013-06-28 4.9769299524155   3.58700717220769  
2013-07-31 4.82136502220599   3.33340038812367  
2013-08-30 4.92173338649918   3.40972662819095  
2013-09-30 4.9932912216694   3.4562389124408  
2013-10-31 4.90185285194628   3.43042130481635  
2013-11-22   4.91637778364698   3.49995576462803
2013-11-29   4.91489145822393   3.51823397177957
2013-12-06   4.89817100430771   3.52459276910555
2013-12-13   4.87633132064758   3.51926546943906
2013-12-20   4.86250334679012   3.46052304917047
2013-12-27   4.83980360603194   3.39837080463852
2014-01-03   4.83926207860685   3.36962879124066
2014-01-10   4.77494501917518   3.34135203327447
2014-01-17   4.73975072568043   3.3524914539517
2014-01-24   4.73646798787304   3.33811266672592
2014-01-31   4.77016827236739   3.37325313687265
2014-02-07   4.76437119002641   3.36645353532583
2014-02-14   4.73872926184662   3.42315964086771
2014-02-21   4.71526742302429   3.43704694172964
2014-02-28   4.70979052611215   3.32352411407987
2014-03-07   4.70453342901222   3.31890602292125
2014-03-14   4.68132546123847   3.32047207715588
2014-03-21   4.64860397499193   3.30609210897079
2014-03-28   4.65233932128799   3.3187880657679
2014-04-04   4.71830446491942   3.37557489583033
2014-04-11   4.69698195730859   3.40917412257506
2014-04-17   4.71840205394015   3.40264500562951
2014-04-25   4.75595087556828   3.45350745879057
2014-05-02   4.73882504563956   3.40738497428832
2014-05-09   4.73296931694963   3.37252531166816
2014-05-16   4.69847111631524   3.38038639083675
2014-05-23   4.706252086923   3.38948227715568
2014-05-30   4.71765350547339   3.38995151133101
2014-06-06   4.6995774433724   3.40024991588999
2014-06-13   4.68582056857851   3.40250785908654
2014-06-20   4.6901188430303   3.38909477375372
2014-06-27   4.68084523433063   3.37139239803294
2014-07-03   4.66633452261199   3.38307288607895
2014-07-11   4.65857597067141   3.41784123114314
2014-07-18   4.6659170994457   3.41566751268603
2014-07-25   4.67109311730194   3.42556658674084
2014-08-01   4.74805780968992   3.49879613949364
2014-08-08   4.76257888201742   3.5583365069534
2014-08-15   4.80261064709441   3.63192707714925
2014-08-22   4.79454545842564   3.60877405954633
2014-08-29   4.75837697480166   3.57570601648156
2014-09-05   4.76726830882043   3.57521551140782
2014-09-12   4.81951602406893   3.62895900793567
2014-09-19   4.82183648754252   3.63256938129911
2014-09-26   4.90198628546893   3.71275918533139
2014-10-03   4.9731622277328   3.75530829164795
2014-10-10   4.98611463225786   3.78239737586072
2014-10-17   5.14012253202681   3.92146477437829
2014-10-24   5.08514834895335   3.8370866843996
2014-10-31   4.99933234616711   3.73780065651997
2014-11-07   5.01100684904652   3.70667733646381
2014-11-14   4.99526248182246   3.69454860804504
2014-11-21   5.00529508118267   3.6769910383602
2014-11-28   5.03232370180273   3.66995726094642
2014-12-05   5.1397457541618   3.69046140810833
2014-12-12   5.40528299362656   3.91427253842378
2014-12-19   5.51980796490439   3.94950852225728
2014-12-26   5.44830160805005   3.89882720993366
2015-01-02   5.44314434282006   3.88988542000737
2015-01-09   5.44088050559043   3.91557037578101
2015-01-16   5.45126002574333   3.89341142942705
2015-01-23   5.44320950277286   3.87960284354776
2015-01-30   5.4717472745429   3.92504357694723
2015-02-06   5.41379114714461   3.85642696588578
2015-02-13   5.33495035928777   3.79452283581625
2015-02-20   5.27347491984475   3.74824947188234
2015-02-27   5.22462583955283   3.72837399567687
2015-03-06   5.18878600162185   3.67783499969861
2015-03-13   5.16095196059059   3.68595865959697
2015-03-20   5.21212271838608   3.7039294958199
2015-03-27   5.21040576976154   3.6691098112641
2015-04-02   5.17689192920751   3.66188919704314
2015-04-10   5.12256794459723   3.58180059569194
2015-04-17   5.13622103857814   3.56328005594519
2015-04-24   5.11367740105739   3.56036280375722
2015-05-01   5.11800049041236   3.54895259745194
2015-05-08   5.09496299151701   3.56703795884056
2015-05-15   5.11173556438909   3.59520708059008
2015-05-22   5.12971847695507   3.56732242752164
2015-05-29   5.1385489287563   3.56770722014389
2015-06-05   5.22301671682687   3.58179778740348
2015-06-12   5.27686504688179   3.60793647410906
2015-06-19   5.30869653296769   3.6407188188135
2015-06-26   5.30953444734911   3.62499974273843
2015-07-02   5.35425665665574   3.62705513977472
2015-07-10   5.34092405702112   3.59355667538143
2015-07-17   5.29604279216756   3.54833725048025
2015-07-24   5.31247385220175   3.55294625765034
2015-07-31   5.36280463313124   3.58223070627914
2015-08-07   5.38387359994463   3.62467401701779
2015-08-14   5.41219695306286   3.68227449478734
2015-08-21   5.48304764794247   3.7089818819675
2015-08-28   5.56034620713565   3.73547202340285
2015-09-04   5.41201615980203   3.71974308819793
2015-09-11   5.42393013716328   3.69412111882769
2015-09-18   5.44558999930486   3.67578138345503
2015-09-25   5.52181476700323   3.7020468467027
2015-10-02   5.74736441251477   3.7814524235744
2015-10-09   5.75407152664045   3.7708172595384
2015-10-16   5.78555008004803   3.78068402704747
2015-10-23   5.76314916952293   3.7813489849771
2015-10-30   5.76807599065604   3.84873772418925
2015-11-06   5.77125800121641   3.81105380168687
2015-11-13   5.89956008310185   3.89986672118246
2015-11-20   6.07562302612588   3.94775121742508
2015-11-27   6.11454532437702   3.91666031917897
2015-12-04   6.20790434894555   3.87448434390473
2015-12-11   6.66078696304955   3.95863275027327
2015-12-18   7.00450487581199   4.02301498263567
2015-12-24   7.07631577811547   4.04999667361663
2015-12-31   7.07805136792277   4.03275706474643
2016-01-08   7.11676407939582   4.00644001367358
2016-01-15   7.2210975604736   4.03359478177958
2016-01-22   7.46337768524091   4.14091382690796
2016-01-29   7.42678670089386   4.14373685793356
2016-02-05   7.45999483429677   4.11214555773313
2016-02-12   7.71024442831311   4.26279275637569
2016-02-19   7.5240639280762   4.26707335543469
2016-02-26   7.50770241798086   4.24014746092948
2016-03-04   7.24520009893011   4.11303023510059
2016-03-11   6.95079647832345   3.97372927972425
2016-03-18   6.56339300174208   3.76342887181848
2016-03-24   6.50421022315242   3.78112959129545
2016-04-01   6.28089057388705   3.80515300854348
2016-04-08   6.20216637155657   3.73085005738116
2016-04-15   5.80787741744995   3.690519534833
2016-04-22   5.59908323159387   3.61692564314733
2016-04-29   5.52139347464069   3.60326241722237
2016-05-06   5.49952765042342   3.64283150155244
2016-05-13   5.46322213305495   3.65015830375734
2016-05-20   5.41681587934615   3.62108273361469
2016-05-27   5.33203362292375   3.57969950310109
2016-06-03   5.33630456818927   3.57047494826849
2016-06-10   5.2893665721734   3.60896516723463
2016-06-17   5.29490836136151   3.64507632982754
2016-06-24   5.34496110020322   3.64104107937441
2016-07-01   5.37963599435492   3.6516620150831
2016-07-08   5.33862198970846   3.62224721849152
2016-07-15   5.23473772354749   3.54090099024028
2016-07-22   5.14703681266651   3.48375055175672
2016-07-29   5.12163925234107   3.4487599093137
2016-08-05   5.09830271884235   3.46955660840227
2016-08-12   5.07211100901761   3.43932826921559
2016-08-19   5.13233801903715   3.44403937587897
2016-08-26   5.09757265285631   3.45441185579766
2016-09-02   5.04271659750334   3.42611597088864
2016-09-09   5.00157512777542   3.38567964898607
2016-09-16   5.00055027680326   3.36698596480488
2016-09-23   4.88504562421038   3.34908471542541
2016-09-30   4.88306837659863   3.34111843067678
2016-10-07   4.84030645117753   3.27493098141671
2016-10-14   4.86098316510816   3.27357158959381
2016-10-21   4.80530747023467   3.20248959643703
2016-10-28   4.77981780318977   3.19305339427132
2016-11-04   4.79701673867684   3.24851839970379
2016-11-10   4.79987437775647   3.27209881737001
2016-11-18   4.76775100252788   3.21853842737824
2016-11-25   4.74923311008474   3.20983696957339
2016-12-02   4.68170235078925   3.20028216033608
2016-12-09   4.59316229521329   3.09443007766811
2016-12-16   4.54333726114963   3.06594440963085
2016-12-23   4.59501723022806   3.07159749764825
2016-12-30   4.64336752809592   3.03577630657698
2017-01-06   4.56763913172123   3.01991974131742
2017-01-13   4.53657423317396   3.03011585809734
2017-01-20   4.55613459131796   3.05640018164289
2017-01-27   4.53502088905104   3.08667360182461
2017-02-03   4.50386572010133   3.06061959213651
2017-02-10   4.50864842346537   3.00743841833436
2017-02-17   4.44817748548348   2.95155920637098
2017-02-24   4.38856087782047   2.93218927897703
2017-03-03   4.34229959348746   2.88409623161945
2017-03-10   4.34439197323899   2.86958767103107
2017-03-17   4.32180828144712   2.85235146975824
2017-03-24   4.31639611186715   2.93696817826241
2017-03-31   4.25067399712789   2.90972981608549
2017-04-07   4.1548281469157   2.87888211801366
2017-04-13   4.11561365233479   2.85045098102648
2017-04-21   4.12901079481905   2.8327897612187
2017-04-28   4.12658447576905   2.81799604975454
2017-05-05   4.15789586631832   2.88118683586918
2017-05-12   4.13028738552222   2.88242432899756
2017-05-19   4.11115061258223   2.88877368930913
2017-05-26   4.03856830223847   2.88590368291577
2017-06-02   4.05462319439513   2.8659693763501
2017-06-09   4.03421705795138   2.86923816833126
2017-06-16   4.03666158594686   2.88012744812461
2017-06-23   4.07046880118707   2.8640374354623
2017-06-30   4.07836583024533   2.83919819967175
2017-07-07   4.0692808983178   2.83318329855319
2017-07-14   4.09480046963445   2.83288055949895
2017-07-21   4.09006272411951   2.80431436364773
2017-07-28   4.03022575240947   2.78096381744228
2017-08-04   4.03237919747284   2.75204425907666
2017-08-11   4.05640957124301   2.79943796474621
2017-08-18   4.06605176579403   2.7788642606794
2017-08-25   4.07179922383678   2.82070245102456
2017-09-01   4.05934413260524   2.85221006787829
2017-09-08   4.02195779086437   2.87263476250438
2017-09-15   4.01712607300918   2.89065377092883
2017-09-22   4.02240181940972   2.82480844370843
2017-09-29   4.01261108997878   2.71581802737161
2017-10-06   3.9801376016454   2.66825916590503
2017-10-13   3.94523593474567   2.66621357451677
2017-10-20   3.92501865446377   2.65054248736078
2017-10-27   3.94470887194254   2.65176796405097
2017-11-03   3.9658747221224   2.62679979211548
2017-11-10   3.98252891261967   2.62230662993716
2017-11-17   3.96101265071187   2.6463455345622
2017-11-24   3.95486511783194   2.6371524972503
2017-12-01   3.94824207720089   2.62863821380309
2017-12-08   3.94398250686086   2.60784429609643
2017-12-15   3.99904960207814   2.62225817366873
2017-12-22   3.91151776618421   2.62741150957061
2017-12-29   3.88619959269827   2.5949562196173
2018-01-05   3.87332191330704   2.55285062697653
2018-01-12   3.80788949014598   2.54363231733713
2018-01-19   3.77164134032746   2.5240891062831
2018-01-26   3.73386001489898   2.49594761567828
2018-02-02   3.70233791053562   2.438156129872
2018-02-09   3.74160329369141   2.4811853576384
2018-02-16   3.73065385882746   2.48637425328456
2018-02-23   3.72776746538791   2.50238264142974
2018-03-02   3.72263611801141   2.51309855397887
2018-03-09   3.72171718220192   2.50958072842874
2018-03-16   3.70461834383821   2.49426911033018
2018-03-23   3.72231576950643   2.49018121201369
2018-03-30   3.7230251951681   2.49285152442253
2018-04-06   3.71612127233982   2.49498620311494
2018-04-13   3.68343738109994   2.48872275663687
2018-04-20   3.66087969758433   2.45645300543463
2018-04-27   3.66893774143854   2.43889424627615
2018-05-04   3.68427149296337   2.43984005471942
2018-05-11   3.67930851146035   2.44477163013841
2018-05-18   3.67525845981945   2.46968335228819
2018-05-25   3.69176526211537   2.49195051030461
2018-06-01   3.72332340675616   2.48448039124568
2018-06-08   3.71382500681671   2.48614320452861
2018-06-15   3.72550947235705   2.49076377997511
2018-06-22   3.74568864270355   2.51663685834703
2018-06-29   3.76364651933181   2.55210342907046
2018-07-06   3.75000831557254   2.53111125673911
2018-07-13   3.75643716619156   2.54117486170418
2018-07-20   3.74809617253688   2.53204466005412
2018-07-27   3.75741714589224   2.51411306037712
2018-08-03   3.7528377908275   2.49816219761235
2018-08-10   3.76716622391631   2.51615723593393
2018-08-17   3.77435918226536   2.53300423077876
2018-08-24   3.80714169508916   2.48288833624394
2018-08-31   3.82743274272498   2.49270627312086
2018-09-07   3.81910810361591   2.49455194580355
2018-09-14   3.80641608895297   2.49930274201197
2018-09-21   3.77814271293329   2.48123153109327
2018-09-28   3.73482378128511   2.48072328864636
2018-10-05   3.72656245199978   2.47629985708589
2018-10-12   3.74729595553431   2.48655197238986
2018-10-19   3.74860505844252   2.48924037858587
2018-10-26   3.78971638505862   2.53710607340934
2018-11-02   3.84271285629863   2.58085479276245
2018-11-09   3.85503672675878   2.61467685919488
2018-11-16   3.95101152350418   2.68142568527006
2018-11-23   4.07374660613147   2.75960544817044
2018-11-30   4.17985958317769   2.8844288545427
2018-12-07   4.33434796085598   3.00907876399125
2018-12-14   4.50954585344991   3.15063351363666
2018-12-21   4.83257332265705   3.37317030509131
2018-12-28   4.94122329206996   3.46286007388947
2019-01-04   4.73375437365023   3.18090595633502
2019-01-11   4.486701419743   2.91121215889692
2019-01-18   4.47568672444736   2.83841603241475
2019-01-25   4.52734440887592   2.88150270351691
2019-02-01   4.54293545312963   2.88767136943739
2019-02-08   4.49250267781263   2.86281477648882
2019-02-15   4.44073466160228   2.8307858305961
2019-02-22   4.33191831622411   2.76026964519274
2019-03-01   4.23652832588994   2.68540522830284
2019-03-08   4.32283200278578   2.74664667090451
2019-03-15   4.31454877947418   2.73489610017568
2019-03-22   4.39741989864395   2.78664899792143
2019-03-29   4.45584150984744   2.87707104056228
2019-04-05   4.3159451260146   2.79292197190798
2019-04-12   4.25748716810827   2.74187611393584
2019-04-18   4.21402891775767   2.72785890714153
2019-04-26   4.18071902345997   2.69829143982099
2019-05-03   4.12750529430217   2.68315197273811
2019-05-10   4.20079036003462   2.68093889112379
2019-05-17   4.16356959802504   2.6819717156539
2019-05-24   4.21900172474993   2.68168053966785
2019-05-31   4.29964475758305   2.67587446689644
2019-06-07   4.30494313300387   2.66533403033834
2019-06-14   4.31331840903089   2.65367033083029
2019-06-21   4.31387927868547   2.66336916643676
2019-06-28   4.36415151101045   2.69929692833618
2019-07-05   4.35510858855109   2.69134857200558
2019-07-12   4.31907074668464   2.67279730917817
2019-07-19   4.30248306660984   2.65404417360417
2019-07-26   4.30303544647292   2.64709207709244
2019-08-02   4.30448715064339   2.72991332569066
2019-08-09   4.40934930713279   2.77004863224085
2019-08-16   4.50301207882155   2.80149663781179
2019-08-23   4.50999689810473   2.78083811908707
2019-08-30   4.46482146949076   2.8023572997496
2019-09-06   4.41971703517452   2.7415976790562
2019-09-13   4.34678088478722   2.66964922942204
2019-09-20   4.34022412526567   2.68027481859003
2019-09-27   4.32556151233034   2.67485256251625
2019-10-04   4.43294388971371   2.70441032347559
2019-10-11   4.58654495197368   2.74495028993093
2019-10-18   4.61878118929424   2.72144214325561
2019-10-25   4.63462952825916   2.71363575461445
2019-11-01   4.68316808948193   2.74595379782876
2019-11-08   4.67717900387977   2.75194374316822
2019-11-15   4.6150340620581   2.74513217561298
2019-11-22   4.66984659554786   2.75398635634921
2019-11-29   4.65818411628064   2.74263674496092
2019-12-06   4.54771273848953   2.71077821761063
2019-12-13   4.3637871257466   2.65641442555315
2019-12-20   4.24240182668674   2.64070995018315
2019-12-27   4.24130141056805   2.63801445965637
2020-01-03   4.23049444983206   2.62167247877522
2020-01-10   4.14029626872452   2.57931937654344
2020-01-17   4.10710221026255   2.57207486014564
2020-01-24   4.11279807013901   2.60142240124387
2020-01-31   4.19191771317293   2.62787380461248
2020-02-07   4.21811346555717   2.67868462426466
2020-02-14   4.21048702983462   2.69448073971834
2020-02-21   4.18981138242357   2.71089339469687
2020-02-28   4.58138557621447   3.03880080837431
2020-03-06   4.85477584715005   3.24309169306511
2020-03-13   6.39315211391352   4.75030012561186
2020-03-20   9.68739260092734   7.8806042671714
2020-03-27   9.0306529225545   6.1461346295332
2020-04-03   8.15259801651325   5.04829592148126
2020-04-09   7.30657588339548   4.26438475790934
2020-04-17   6.7360976048753   3.94069489976242
2020-04-24   6.91374564901344   4.12101405085405
2020-05-01   6.8824849427713   4.13917110058719
2020-05-08   6.55861011568805   4.05176174730315
2020-05-15   6.51186157473642   4.03392645967781
2020-05-22   6.15929618127385   3.70510790351894
2020-05-29   5.77001377931713   3.4344889145417
2020-06-05   5.4198791219675   3.2112860264866
2020-06-12   5.37102316454119   3.26416713949091
2020-06-19   5.21608940404011   3.13867739157079
2020-06-26   5.50974931325779   3.38152909811216
2020-07-03   5.39806282191817   3.35794001914109
2020-07-10   5.37437731397208   3.30091358378154
2020-07-17   5.20023680148142   3.19192136564217
2020-07-24   5.06954330950156   3.09475137870875
2020-07-31   5.0927880932399   3.12994566527787
2020-08-07   4.96005290443384   3.04927895220595
2020-08-14   4.86108506468236   3.01750549807591
2020-08-21   4.88126190230468   3.08827145429687
2020-08-28   4.83104673379427   3.07060158005247
2020-09-04   4.65395937636892   2.90011528470132
2020-09-11   4.57862586580644   2.86677815659921
2020-09-18   4.55619295794674   2.8817746529005
2020-09-25   4.74111097556897   3.05841006383966
2020-10-02   4.74973729390598   3.09762905126333
2020-10-09   4.63216027105228   3.00536761563756
2020-10-16   4.66633821543806   3.0363007477585
2020-10-23   4.82556847697998   3.06605226056402
2020-10-30   5.00410486151849   3.21763676843888
2020-11-06   4.80846502420817   3.05705969400357
2020-11-13   4.67376752764658   2.98700829582721
2020-11-20   4.66943570140276   3.02083782874059
2020-11-27   4.60730508698756   2.98489617363073
2020-12-04   4.49988024170091   2.89999632245025
2020-12-11   4.46126169486212   2.86494857960463
2020-12-18   4.39362491852663   2.80638031001718
2020-12-24   4.40935014394781   2.8127459954473
2020-12-31   4.38956255330549   2.79512899510646
2021-01-08   4.23329543415278   2.63397220424553
2021-01-15   4.15506644344309   2.64628839458702
2021-01-22   4.1603840947008   2.63271411742065
2021-01-29   4.22316097660908   2.69317560654646
2021-02-05   4.20291096662308   2.68301508442682
2021-02-12   4.13003648628249   2.70447106184269
2021-02-19   4.11652962039695   2.70891755513389
2021-02-26   4.13347853454002   2.6927847519463
2021-03-05   4.14089666271652   2.75376587820022
2021-03-12   4.15029675974803   2.77049424618101
2021-03-19   4.20770166320041   2.81491065354549
2021-03-26   4.2337836523724   2.84058371573269
2021-04-02   4.24216976821223   2.84234060257599
2021-04-09   4.16670358393048   2.79128932080083
2021-04-16   4.1595164342912   2.80930099144069
2021-04-23   4.18816945363116   2.77143980588233
2021-04-30   4.18242223783981   2.80354637622791
2021-05-07   4.18601516663148   2.81382373298497
2021-05-14   4.1895074229372   2.83972037729225
2021-05-21   4.16266527942296   2.81553035069414
2021-05-28   4.15102393126615   2.78910792195324
2021-06-04   4.13752526970911   2.81805168365214
2021-06-11   4.11886966406813   2.80114725876029
2021-06-18   4.14724738665526   2.85726846868376
2021-06-25   4.1674497136781   2.8846361124996
2021-07-02   4.16808501027835   2.89567726643191
2021-07-09   4.16252811661521   2.91082062412683
2021-07-16   4.15242194078449   2.85811178156657
2021-07-23   4.16536742244913   2.89548215307277
2021-07-30   4.21450427640906   2.92057529762784
2021-08-06   4.22990260207722   2.92647601377693
2021-08-13   4.22826319962781   3.08834455886038
2021-08-20   4.25221264339828   3.14229208727937
2021-08-27   4.23584489415241   3.11721155795411
2021-09-03   4.21437164838956   3.09462511718466
2021-09-10   4.18491760590191   3.07190748879936
2021-09-17   4.17651346154114   3.06541969655385
2021-09-24   4.17854494895039   3.06011664701043
2021-10-01   4.16983172948045   3.04855196484254
2021-10-08   4.18336936583397   3.04671880550561
2021-10-15   4.19600015243809   3.0466996965445
2021-10-22   4.18919880905461   3.05453607711811
2021-10-29   4.19674264218586   3.05898863205879
2021-11-05   4.17919091492711   3.05336404260009
2021-11-12   4.16570406060587   3.00451614957152
2021-11-19   4.16870972284368   3.00843875709851
2021-11-26   4.21072794923365   3.03842165372046
2021-12-03   4.28560225289367   3.08382558058027
2021-12-10   4.23950778343897   3.03051359434843
2021-12-17   4.22675301254695   3.0710875292918
2021-12-24   4.2198034931944   3.06022985306994
2021-12-31   4.28037633229866   3.08079993720851
2022-01-07   4.20642763486986   3.02483210270173
2022-01-14   4.1758813764982   2.99231002690423
2022-01-21   4.15720830018707   2.98513963099083
2022-01-28   4.23665026444295   3.03127961199681
2022-02-04   4.24434976129994   3.02785863506354
2022-02-11   4.29586119250583   3.05931500352623
2022-02-18   4.38417918616559   3.15982979231888
2022-02-25   4.46171519927789   3.22983846236946
2022-03-04   4.4537746867728   3.24193603990983
2022-03-11   4.77329785913411   3.50053771599677
2022-03-18   4.72174089781076   3.45360981464082
2022-03-25   4.5823469600073   3.33856216149833
2022-04-01   4.4331048380424   3.17536127110806
2022-04-08   4.19868280571032   3.01087177887668
2022-04-15   4.19981310817067   3.04871794483991
2022-04-22   4.21455467588161   3.01962953336435
2022-04-29   4.32392627002777   3.10274658464665
2022-05-06   4.45370498776753   3.23516224867446
2022-05-13   4.94292401350464   3.63349524195021
2022-05-20   5.09464865352738   3.72478381912594
2022-05-27   5.16713692006923   3.71841676120812
2022-06-03   4.96190902249778   3.48545036412118
2022-06-10   4.99038255375087   3.50535567368182
2022-06-17   5.38973078105364   3.83324796891127
2022-06-24   5.49972919392619   3.88932235681221
2022-07-01   5.87024843598552   4.16697621333022
2022-07-08   5.91197235877488   4.1931917061723
2022-07-15   5.84341300636366   4.13883942268278
2022-07-22   5.4138681662434   3.720255810389
2022-07-29   5.3657848919672   3.68371104373575
2022-08-05   5.18497258754535   3.49514018477731
2022-08-12   4.89893499237146   3.29749471391827
2022-08-19   4.98887241789133   3.33027462506864
2022-08-26   5.07694673634835   3.41590090858603
2022-09-02   5.23012890770867   3.47741643573316
2022-09-09   5.20813916105857   3.45706476697873
2022-09-16   5.29260414352571   3.4951882831456
2022-09-23   5.58069895713423   3.59514583215458
2022-09-30   5.95424627704004   3.8044689405769
2022-10-07   5.74787332032119   3.64247625709545
2022-10-14   5.91973992825147   3.6632204178041
2022-10-21   5.91555830600449   3.57145685899135
2022-10-28   5.9393160349981   3.55280821962995
2022-11-04   5.77744999132781   3.4684290570924
2022-11-11   5.65463490200775   3.43584534830288
2022-11-18   5.51877624984427   3.40342637810754
2022-11-25   5.53338512141118   3.41009529146504
2022-12-02   5.48187975284611   3.39905781322169
2022-12-09   5.49547200452299   3.39380985857368
2022-12-16   5.50482737446216   3.36601559915847
2022-12-23   5.45820522247659   3.37067928051912
2022-12-30   5.47131763392736   3.38462776604
2023-01-06   5.32532752746079   3.24028168773051
2023-01-13   5.0935681262709   3.10548972862594
2023-01-20   5.03228265237015   3.11398051722137
2023-01-27   4.91538780153413   3.08770211990513
2023-02-03   4.88783981636924   3.07568037144501
2023-02-10   4.80035578601994   3.08251777170337
2023-02-17   4.87803879409925   3.2642159953622
2023-02-24   5.0024355210421   3.32613083005194
2023-03-03   4.98220101336694   3.31908353110109
2023-03-10   5.02067218864067   3.41226325980725
2023-03-17   5.4284592280188   3.69312459188341
2023-03-24   5.46015865454741   3.41076956816121
2023-03-31   5.16159891946793   3.29848853008191
2023-04-07   5.10177038801146   3.2840999216597
2023-04-14   5.05150348255803   3.25970723977671
2023-04-21   4.97136536961754   3.27240854456264
2023-04-28   4.9648964189216   3.26087304478011
2023-05-05   5.0727824278723   3.31235367463578
2023-05-12   5.12192944492827   3.37095675952783
2023-05-19   5.14241091334059   3.39199445765739
2023-05-26   5.2714715506019   3.44621535151174
2023-06-02   5.25038727865748   3.44261557540231
2023-06-09   5.08601839192266   3.35070698269619
2023-06-16   4.96360494202584   3.29029499365745
2023-06-23   4.97692064563626   3.30342416330775
2023-06-30   4.81836912018537   3.209455621531
2023-07-07   4.72801127303233   3.16413316959267
2023-07-14   4.5892874041397   3.10757318770804
2023-07-21   4.65031936637405   3.12319738642292
2023-07-28   4.65130846202699   3.11844380406022
2023-08-04   4.72433331333539   3.13965908365023
2023-08-11   4.72097852024232   3.13169296626439
2023-08-18   4.7814995714259   3.13032972809667
2023-08-25   4.77112294713473   3.12093251651773
2023-09-01   4.69536558497596   3.1151301188841
2023-09-08   4.62774780915257   3.11556673686872
2023-09-15   4.49944612308881   3.07473169331102
2023-09-22   4.4967756645971   3.08696070338685
2023-09-29   4.60099862594902   3.13128052544342
2023-10-06   4.73394830616631   3.22947469018209
2023-10-13   4.67568454991729   3.19381949405343
2023-10-20   4.74705725397444   3.20905057758238
2023-10-27   4.84919564590059   3.24798127953383
2023-11-03   4.84012543959042   3.19086442921904
2023-11-10   4.76369295147738   3.22054538305418
2023-11-17   4.72722606361623   3.18016603287138
2023-11-24   4.74204387278806   3.19989109637263
2023-12-01   4.74406733966552   3.1995421987107
2023-12-08   4.67626386939788   3.17545726284641
2023-12-15   4.55542998749156   3.10902273128329
2023-12-22   4.52372242713245   3.08300588570076
2023-12-29   4.46379606304717   3.04439116184219
2024-01-05   4.44416393781167   3.03849446510619
2024-01-12   4.42998849305406   3.03175535872249
2024-01-19   4.46649593961854   3.02229752126663
2024-01-26   4.47676959603577   3.03487327327727
2024-02-02   4.44661255026788   3.0877437451045
2024-02-09   4.42857341517991   3.09455673046814
2024-02-16   4.40104041488779   3.07316340802546
2024-02-23   4.38169992657429   3.05854411401054
2024-03-01   4.36360045800961   3.01175741777971
2024-03-08   4.3141197585875   3.02985455018771
2024-03-15   4.25289487855915   3.00819667535299
2024-03-22   4.26749124644629   3.02781447638552
2024-03-29   4.27157503265625   2.96854851157396
2024-04-05   4.25975421987518   2.94220870584076
2024-04-12   4.33952504897737   2.94106228848252
2024-04-19   4.36381603173792   2.94803820354432
2024-04-26   4.30378908436083   2.92353809018166
2024-05-03   4.28359194153597   2.90295964206167
2024-05-10   4.21385733162228   2.89975419762436
2024-05-17   4.202134004268   2.89884121041725
2024-05-24   4.20374688373111   2.87768734509637
2024-05-31   4.2014676745876   2.86866968575059
2024-06-07   4.18833704485273   2.87085759198522
2024-06-14   4.22743258223545   2.90796587831294
2024-06-21   4.25467681544396   2.84321508081804
2024-06-28   4.23592779225434   2.81915312820015
2024-07-05   4.22286030618708   2.81326997732665
2024-07-12   4.2069198722959   2.80832055676732
2024-07-19   4.17674094806602   2.79052867527271
2024-07-26   4.1827477531041   2.78396456822947
2024-08-02   4.2396981103713   2.80798921870207
2024-08-09   4.24467641104815   2.79602373708319
2024-08-16   4.17782099737817   2.78553728885875
2024-08-23   4.11230286931712   2.69557353911778
2024-08-30   4.12325499090734   2.67816594309273
2024-09-06   4.14164499740827   2.68989930353821
2024-09-13   4.15218482459485   2.69963017265512
2024-09-20   4.13097668955865   2.69536930835065
2024-09-27   4.13593101687655   2.7163125482196
2024-10-04   4.10375104135303   2.70260586703339
2024-10-11   4.05404990643135   2.69069439589513
2024-10-18   4.00724888648943   2.69169124302654
2024-10-25   4.01146501243722   2.68954904037111
2024-11-01   4.03315331499767   2.70684771571673
2024-11-08   3.98731019977159   2.67493040566281
2024-11-15   3.91870933942233   2.65088199404798
2024-11-22   3.88537377176416   2.5881559089506
2024-11-29   3.86873984259593   2.57766968556317
2024-12-06   3.85233899165915   2.58208721431771
2024-12-13   3.8388008719629   2.55527206439055
2024-12-20   3.88629460234016   2.61474894462608
2024-12-27   3.86974965613866   2.58955104982756
2025-01-03   3.84603074574195   2.5547603266432
2025-01-10   3.86217179617611   2.5470767475489
2025-01-17   3.88355928451076   2.52729558357672
2025-01-24   3.86760435720279   2.53036601892401
2025-01-31   3.87116541656956   2.47806543076873
2025-02-07   3.81913867893667   2.48913614322055
2025-02-14   3.81995753909982   2.47439149610879
2025-02-21   3.80818117937534   2.46748832636148
2025-02-28   3.85366764019206   2.47149164743871
2025-03-07   3.92218177711249   2.56162094190912
2025-03-14   4.02112992798041   2.6055623019941
2025-03-21   4.04005269905427   2.60225771711133
2025-03-28   4.01241391290956   2.57599591729042
2025-04-04   4.44003489329235   2.84840210850713

Note: The data show secondary-market discounted spreads to maturity. Spreads are the constant spread used to equate discounted loan cash flows to the current market price. B-rated spreads begin in July 1997. The black dashed line represents the data transitioning from monthly to weekly in November 2013.

Source: PitchBook Data, Leveraged Commentary & Data.

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Figure 1.11. Treasury market depth fell significantly in April from already low levels

This is a line chart titled "Treasury market depth fell significantly in April from already low levels". The x-axis measures time and ranges from January 2019 to April 2025. The data are 5-day moving average. There are three variables plotted on the chart. The first line is labeled "5-year" and is designated by a black line. This line corresponds to the values on the right y-axis, which ranges from 0 to 350 in millions of dollars. It begins at around 160 million in 2019 and rises steadily, with local peaks in February of 2019 and October 2020. The peaks are between 260 and 285 million. In March of 2020, the series reaches its lowest value at 15 million. By the end of 2020, the value has risen again to about 260 million but declines to 40 million in March 2022, with much volatility in that decline. The values hover between 30 and 50 million through the rest of 2022. The series gradually increases throughout 2023 to reach about 80 million in December, climbing further to 90 million by March 2024. The series rises with much volatility to reach about 122 million in October 2024, then declines rapidly to just above 50 million in December 2024. The series darts up to about 100 million in late February 2025, falls back down to 60 million in mid-March 2025, and then recovers back to almost 80 million at the end of March 2025. The series ends in April 2025, where the series falls sharply down to a final value of 27 million on April 11, 2025. The second line is labeled "10-year" and is designated by a red line. This line corresponds to the values on the right y-axis, which ranges from 0 to 350 in millions of dollars. It begins at just over 110 million dollars in 2019, climbs to 240 million in April 2019, then declines to around 75 million by August of 2019. It then upticks to 140 million in early 2020. There is a sharp decrease down to around 10 million in March of 2020. Following this sharp decline is an overall increase until June 2021 at a value of around 175 million. From this point there is a decreasing trend in the series with fluctuations between about 60 and 80 million throughout 2022 and 2023. In 2024, the series remains steady until a very steep decline to a local minimum of 48 million in early August 2024. It rapidly rises back up to about 100 million by mid-August, then drops suddenly to about 65 million in early November 2025. The series remains in that range until early 2025, where it climbs back to about 100 million. It remains there until early March 2025, where it falls to 71 million. The values increase back to about 90 million by the end of March 2025 before very steeply declining in April 2025 to end at a local minimum of 32 million on April 11th. The third series is labeled "30-year" and is designated by a blue line. The line corresponds to values on the left y-axis, which ranges from 0 to 35 in millions of dollars. The line starts around 15 million in January 2019 before a quick increase to around 28 million in the middle of 2019. There is a sharp decline to about 7 million in October of 2019 before a rise back to about 15 million and then an even sharper decline to under 5 million in March 2020. From there, the series rises to over 20 million in June 2021, before gradually declining to around 7.5 million in March 2022. The series hovers between 7 and 11 million until the end of 2022, when it declines again to about 5 million. It rises again to about 15 million by end the of 2023, drops to 10 million in the beginning of 2024, then rises to around 16 million in March 2024. It remains there until a steep decline to 12.36 million in early August 2024, but it quickly rebounds back to around 15.6 million by mid-August 2024. It jumps to nearly 18 million by the end of September 2024. The series generally increases until March 2025, where it hits a local maximum of about 17.3 million before falling to about 14 million at the middle of March 2025. The series increases slightly again to around 16 million by early April 2025, then sharply declines to its final value of about 8.8 million on April 11th, 2025.

Note: Market depth is defined as the average top 3 bid and ask quote sizes for on-the-run Treasury securities.

Source: Inter Dealer Broker Community.

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Figure 1.12. On-the-run Treasury market depth was close to its historical lows

This is a line chart titled "On-the-run Treasury market depth was close to its historic lows". The x-axis measures time and ranges from September 2019 to April 2025. The data are 5-day moving average. There are two variables plotted on the chart. The first line is labeled "2-year OTR market depth" and is designated by a black line. This line corresponds to the values on the right y-axis, which ranges from 0 to 300 in millions of dollars. It begins at around 40 million in October 2019 and rises steadily to about 80 million in February 2020 before there is a sharp decrease in March 2020 to a low of about 9 million. Then, there is a quick rebound back to around 285 million in February of 2021, a sharp drop down to about 110 million in March 2021, and an increase back to about 260 million in June 2021. There is a gradual decrease to around 10 million in early 2023. The series remains between 5 and 12 million for most of 2023 but increases in early 2024 to almost 40 million in May 2024, where the series hovers for a few months. There is a decline in early July 2024 to about 28 million, and the series remains between 20 and 30 million until increasing to about 40 million in February 2025. The series remains around that value until a steep drop to its final value of about 9 million on April 11, 2025. The second line is labeled "10-year OTR market depth" and is designated by a blue line. This line corresponds to the values on the left y-axis, which ranges from 0 to 60 in millions of dollars. It begins at about 35 million dollars in 2019, rises to around 50 million by February of 2020 before steeply dropping to 5 million in March 2020. The series increases back up to 55 million in late 2020. The series wavers between 30 and 50 million in 2021 and then declines throughout 2022 from about 30 million dollars to about 10 million dollars. March 2023 shows a further decline to about 8 million dollars before the series takes on an increasing trend and reaches about 31 million in March 2024. It remains around that value until a steep decline in early August 2024, where the series reaches a local minimum of about 15 million. The series recovers quickly to about 35 million, but drops down to 20 million at the end of October 2024. It remains around 20 million through the end of 2024, then climbs in early 2025 to reach about 40 million at the end of February. The series bounces down to 20 million in early March 2025 then back up to 30 million at the end of March 2025. The series ends with a sharp decline to about 10 million at its final value on April 11, 2025.

Note: The data show the time-weighted average market depth at the best quoted prices to buy and sell, for 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes. OTR is on-the-run.

Source: BrokerTec; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

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Figure 1.13. A measure of liquidity in equity markets stayed well below average

Market depth (number of contracts)

Date Close Depth
1997-09-09 12.9649122807018
1997-09-10 8.95159194282001
1997-09-11 11.9533246696989
1997-09-12 12.7828947368421
1997-09-15 14.3658219623132
1997-09-17 14.7160493827161
1997-09-18 18.3086419753086
1997-09-19 18.3410493827161
1997-09-22 18.7345679012346
1997-09-23 17.6944444444444
1997-09-24 16.9506172839506
1997-09-25 16.3703703703704
1997-09-26 16.9232618583496
1997-09-29 18.2343729694607
1997-09-30 18.5738791423002
1997-10-01 19.3368421052632
1997-10-02 20.0936322287199
1997-10-03 19.2345679012346
1997-10-06 18.1543209876543
1997-10-07 18.1543209876543
1997-10-08 17.9395061728395
1997-10-09 16.5938271604938
1997-10-10 15.3950617283951
1997-10-13 14.3432098765432
1997-10-14 13.7185185185185
1997-10-15 12.9086419753086
1997-10-16 12.6456790123457
1997-10-17 12.9012345679012
1997-10-20 12.6592592592593
1997-10-21 11.9049382716049
1997-10-22 11.4084470435348
1997-10-23 10.9430149447693
1997-10-24 10.3158544509422
1997-10-27 9.720619111436
1997-10-28 8.5739678768681
1997-10-29 7.65194058641975
1997-10-30 7.07416280864198
1997-10-31 6.7358912037037
1997-11-03 6.73729938271605
1997-11-04 7.55308641975309
1997-11-05 8.30493827160494
1997-11-06 8.61851851851852
1997-11-07 8.58024691358025
1997-11-10 8.52962962962963
1997-11-11 8.7037037037037
1997-11-12 8.84691358024691
1997-11-13 8.82962962962963
1997-11-14 9.45061728395062
1997-11-17 9.88888888888889
1997-11-18 9.7679012345679
1997-11-19 9.82469135802469
1997-11-20 10.1913580246914
1997-11-21 10.3111111111111
1997-11-24 9.9358024691358
1997-11-25 9.91358024691358
1997-11-26 10.0037037037037
1997-11-28 9.66098765432099
1997-12-01 10.44
1997-12-02 11.5758024691358
1997-12-03 12.2338271604938
1997-12-04 12.9955555555556
1997-12-05 13.9691358024691
1997-12-08 13.8827160493827
1997-12-09 13.6197530864198
1997-12-10 13.5246913580247
1997-12-11 12.8148148148148
1997-12-12 12.3185185185185
1997-12-15 12.3358024691358
1997-12-16 11.9740740740741
1997-12-17 11.541975308642
1997-12-18 12.041975308642
1997-12-19 12.4876543209877
1997-12-22 11.6296296296296
1997-12-23 11.3753086419753
1997-12-24 11.2898765432099
1997-12-26 9.41384326355341
1997-12-29 8.1027321524423
1997-12-30 7.60890499194847
1997-12-31 7.61754696725711
1998-01-02 7.47458400429415
1998-01-05 9.2962962962963
1998-01-06 10.4925925925926
1998-01-07 11.2785657998424
1998-01-08 12.0983188862622
1998-01-09 12.6066985158918
1998-01-12 11.9054639479905
1998-01-13 12.1363281455214
1998-01-14 12.6441820987654
1998-01-15 12.362700617284
1998-01-16 12.7901234567901
1998-01-20 13.7358024691358
1998-01-21 14.0053133302078
1998-01-22 13.9571651820597
1998-01-23 13.6077824660103
1998-01-26 13.8732145647757
1998-01-27 14.1238318487264
1998-01-28 13.741975308642
1998-01-29 13.7876543209877
1998-01-30 14.5493827160494
1998-02-02 14.3320987654321
1998-02-03 14.0222222222222
1998-02-04 14.2740740740741
1998-02-05 14.5123456790123
1998-02-06 14.1234567901235
1998-02-09 14.1407407407407
1998-02-10 14.4407407407407
1998-02-11 14.5358024691358
1998-02-12 14.7407407407407
1998-02-13 13.7728395061728
1998-02-17 13.8024691358025
1998-02-18 14.3666666666667
1998-02-19 14.5296296296296
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2023-04-19 72.5407407407408
2023-04-20 71.5
2023-04-21 72.7185185185185
2023-04-24 76.9679012345679
2023-04-25 78.279012345679
2023-04-26 77.3308641975309
2023-04-27 81.4197530864198
2023-04-28 78.4358024691358
2023-05-01 75.562962962963
2023-05-02 73.5493827160494
2023-05-03 69.0962962962963
2023-05-04 59.2691358024691
2023-05-05 61.6086419753086
2023-05-08 60.7493827160494
2023-05-09 61.4246913580247
2023-05-10 61.2395061728395
2023-05-11 62.5950617283951
2023-05-12 61.0395061728395
2023-05-15 62.3024691358025
2023-05-16 61.9432098765432
2023-05-17 66.6148148148148
2023-05-18 67.1753086419753
2023-05-19 65.6259259259259
2023-05-22 62.7691358024691
2023-05-23 62.8641975308642
2023-05-24 59.9271604938272
2023-05-25 58.4382716049383
2023-05-26 60.1493827160494
2023-05-30 60.1098765432099
2023-05-31 60.3407407407407
2023-06-01 62.7358024691358
2023-06-02 67.3432098765432
2023-06-05 67.2024691358025
2023-06-06 69.0913580246914
2023-06-07 68.4555555555556
2023-06-08 70.9148148148148
2023-06-09 68.2802469135802
2023-06-12 68.6555555555556
2023-06-13 67.3259259259259
2023-06-14 65.5098765432099
2023-06-15 59.9481481481482
2023-06-16 58.0432098765432
2023-06-20 56.1777777777778
2023-06-21 53.8518518518519
2023-06-22 53.0382716049383
2023-06-23 53.8222222222222
2023-06-26 56.2666666666667
2023-06-27 61.4259259259259
2023-06-28 64.8
2023-06-29 69.7074074074074
2023-06-30 77.1703703703704
2023-07-03 81.4150026838433
2023-07-05 80.9298174986581
2023-07-06 87.4508051529791
2023-07-07 91.3495705850778
2023-07-10 86.7273483628556
2023-07-11 86.6530864197531
2023-07-12 86.9333333333333
2023-07-13 85.0851851851852
2023-07-14 80.3283950617284
2023-07-17 82.3234567901235
2023-07-18 83.9197530864198
2023-07-19 82.4506172839506
2023-07-20 78.6246913580247
2023-07-21 78.5506172839506
2023-07-24 76.8098765432099
2023-07-25 79.1666666666667
2023-07-26 77.8506172839506
2023-07-27 78.1506172839506
2023-07-28 78.1074074074074
2023-07-31 77.6197530864198
2023-08-01 72.5938271604938
2023-08-02 75.4259259259259
2023-08-03 76.2728395061729
2023-08-04 76.6320987654321
2023-08-07 78.7654320987654
2023-08-08 77.8358024691358
2023-08-09 77.2222222222222
2023-08-10 70.6
2023-08-11 66.4
2023-08-14 61.6679012345679
2023-08-15 57.3864197530864
2023-08-16 51.9592592592593
2023-08-17 55.1296296296296
2023-08-18 53.8691358024691
2023-08-21 53.8654320987654
2023-08-22 53.9345679012346
2023-08-23 55.6061728395062
2023-08-24 54.4111111111111
2023-08-25 52.2543209876543
2023-08-28 49.5938271604938
2023-08-29 51.1518518518519
2023-08-30 51.2246913580247
2023-08-31 53.8074074074074
2023-09-01 58.1074074074074
2023-09-05 64.2925925925926
2023-09-06 67.7024691358025
2023-09-07 70.8123456790124
2023-09-08 70.7864197530864
2023-09-11 72.0469135802469
2023-09-12 69.2950617283951
2023-09-13 68.6851851851852
2023-09-14 70.0296296296296
2023-09-15 70.2851851851852
2023-09-18 72.9604938271605
2023-09-19 76.2172839506173
2023-09-20 73.9703703703704
2023-09-21 70.9271604938272
2023-09-22 70.6765432098765
2023-09-25 67.2098765432099
2023-09-26 64.8506172839506
2023-09-27 63.4567901234568
2023-09-28 61.2555555555556
2023-09-29 57.1382716049383
2023-10-02 53.0518518518519
2023-10-03 47.8555555555556
2023-10-04 45.4222222222222
2023-10-05 43.0012345679012
2023-10-06 43.1407407407407
2023-10-09 45.4938271604938
2023-10-10 48.6740740740741
2023-10-11 51.0049382716049
2023-10-12 52.4530864197531
2023-10-13 53.2444444444445
2023-10-16 55.1716049382716
2023-10-17 53.8987654320988
2023-10-18 52.2506172839506
2023-10-19 49.9259259259259
2023-10-20 49.2728395061729
2023-10-23 46.4592592592593
2023-10-24 45.058024691358
2023-10-25 44.5
2023-10-26 45.2160493827161
2023-10-27 44.2222222222222
2023-10-30 46.4259259259259
2023-10-31 47.7246913580247
2023-11-01 47.6259259259259
2023-11-02 52.8864197530864
2023-11-03 57.6407407407407
2023-11-06 60.8925925925926
2023-11-07 65.8074074074074
2023-11-08 70.3197530864198
2023-11-09 69.6012345679012
2023-11-10 71.1950617283951
2023-11-13 72.041975308642
2023-11-14 72.4148148148148
2023-11-15 73.141975308642
2023-11-16 75.537037037037
2023-11-17 77.062962962963
2023-11-20 79.3407407407408
2023-11-21 79.579012345679
2023-11-22 80.9814814814815
2023-11-24 80.3296296296296
2023-11-27 80.6308641975309
2023-11-28 80.8518518518519
2023-11-29 81.9802469135803
2023-11-30 83.7604938271605
2023-12-01 83.4950617283951
2023-12-04 87.1074074074074
2023-12-05 86.262962962963
2023-12-06 89.2358024691358
2023-12-07 92.3320987654321
2023-12-08 92.7259259259259
2023-12-11 91.3185185185185
2023-12-12 93.5888888888889
2023-12-13 94.4753086419753
2023-12-14 89.6592592592593
2023-12-15 86.6160493827161
2023-12-18 88.9382716049383
2023-12-19 91.8851851851852
2023-12-20 89.7135802469136
2023-12-21 84.8666666666667
2023-12-22 86.5098765432099
2023-12-26 80.2987654320988
2023-12-27 73.5358024691358
2023-12-28 70.3172839506173
2023-12-29 71.4358024691358
2024-01-02 71.1555555555556
2024-01-03 67.4925925925926
2024-01-04 63.2506172839506
2024-01-05 58.7123456790124
2024-01-08 62.158024691358
2024-01-09 63.7259259259259
2024-01-10 67.9024691358025
2024-01-11 66.2567901234568
2024-01-12 66.7345679012346
2024-01-16 62.3493827160494
2024-01-17 60.0320987654321
2024-01-18 56.7444444444445
2024-01-19 60.5074074074074
2024-01-22 60.0493827160494
2024-01-23 62.6358024691358
2024-01-24 62.258024691358
2024-01-25 60.9864197530864
2024-01-26 59.5641975308642
2024-01-29 63.1641975308642
2024-01-30 62.6716049382716
2024-01-31 61.8728395061728
2024-02-01 61.5604938271605
2024-02-02 60.6172839506173
2024-02-05 58.4740740740741
2024-02-06 56.7679012345679
2024-02-07 58.0938271604938
2024-02-08 62.9012345679012
2024-02-09 67.9518518518519
2024-02-12 71.4135802469136
2024-02-13 72.8666666666667
2024-02-14 72.1592592592593
2024-02-15 70.079012345679
2024-02-16 66.0469135802469
2024-02-20 60.2111111111111
2024-02-21 58.2691358024691
2024-02-22 57.9481481481482
2024-02-23 55.6493827160494
2024-02-26 55.8938271604938
2024-02-27 58.0691358024691
2024-02-28 60.4876543209877
2024-02-29 62.5765432098765
2024-03-01 69.8148148148148
2024-03-04 77.5975308641975
2024-03-05 78.1172839506173
2024-03-06 76.5493827160494
2024-03-07 78.620987654321
2024-03-08 68.4827160493827
2024-03-11 55.2086419753087
2024-03-12 51.9074074074074
2024-03-13 53.4716049382716
2024-03-14 47.7469135802469
2024-03-15 49.6271604938272
2024-03-18 53.5728395061728
2024-03-19 55.1024691358025
2024-03-20 52.7716049382716
2024-03-21 54.9802469135803
2024-03-22 58.1234567901235
2024-03-25 60.7358024691358
2024-03-26 66.2308641975309
2024-03-27 70.1148148148148
2024-03-28 74.3938271604938
2024-04-01 73.420987654321
2024-04-02 74.0506172839506
2024-04-03 69.5074074074074
2024-04-04 69.3049382716049
2024-04-05 61.2456790123457
2024-04-08 58.9543209876543
2024-04-09 54.1
2024-04-10 49.5049382716049
2024-04-11 43.8962962962963
2024-04-12 44.2382716049383
2024-04-15 41.8012345679012
2024-04-16 38.8246913580247
2024-04-17 37.8864197530864
2024-04-18 35.6098765432099
2024-04-19 32.9925925925926
2024-04-22 34.7061728395062
2024-04-23 36.520987654321
2024-04-24 38.9802469135802
2024-04-25 40.6135802469136
2024-04-26 45.8358024691358
2024-04-29 49.162962962963
2024-04-30 50.4148148148148
2024-05-01 49.1827160493827
2024-05-02 48.9160493827161
2024-05-03 46.7913580246914
2024-05-06 48.6
2024-05-07 53.1543209876543
2024-05-08 60.2617283950617
2024-05-09 68.6728395061728
2024-05-10 73.0962962962963
2024-05-13 76.0567901234568
2024-05-14 77.8333333333334
2024-05-15 80.5456790123457
2024-05-16 80.5395061728395
2024-05-17 85.0814814814815
2024-05-20 87.4148148148148
2024-05-21 93.437037037037
2024-05-22 92.9358024691358
2024-05-23 88.1925925925926
2024-05-24 84.2
2024-05-28 76.9074074074074
2024-05-29 69.2308641975309
2024-05-30 63.9901234567901
2024-05-31 65.620987654321
2024-06-03 61.2160493827161
2024-06-04 58.9518518518519
2024-06-05 57.7234567901235
2024-06-06 57.9049382716049
2024-06-07 53.8123456790124
2024-06-10 57.3135802469136
2024-06-11 60.0012345679012
2024-06-12 58.5246913580247
2024-06-13 57.5728395061729
2024-06-14 57.3851851851852
2024-06-17 55.2975308641975
2024-06-18 55.1185185185185
2024-06-20 55.2283950617284
2024-06-21 54.3493827160494
2024-06-24 55.0123456790124
2024-06-25 55.2
2024-06-26 51.937037037037
2024-06-27 51.9148148148148
2024-06-28 51.9530864197531
2024-07-01 53.5358024691358
2024-07-02 55.3271604938272
2024-07-03 58.8256307031669
2024-07-05 60.5280998389694
2024-07-08 63.9429146537842
2024-07-09 67.2564949006978
2024-07-10 72.7169887278583
2024-07-11 70.7271604938272
2024-07-12 70.7160493827161
2024-07-15 68.5160493827161
2024-07-16 64.8703703703704
2024-07-17 58.0432098765432
2024-07-18 55.8222222222222
2024-07-19 50.3185185185185
2024-07-22 48.3148148148148
2024-07-23 46.4271604938272
2024-07-24 44.7283950617284
2024-07-25 42.4320987654321
2024-07-26 41.5851851851852
2024-07-29 40.1123456790123
2024-07-30 38.5777777777778
2024-07-31 35.341975308642
2024-08-01 34.3765432098765
2024-08-02 32.637037037037
2024-08-05 26.9592592592593
2024-08-06 22.5407407407407
2024-08-07 19.0938271604938
2024-08-08 17.7530864197531
2024-08-09 17.4407407407407
2024-08-12 19.937037037037
2024-08-13 24.2987654320988
2024-08-14 26.7234567901235
2024-08-15 32.0827160493827
2024-08-16 36.4827160493827
2024-08-19 41.8691358024691
2024-08-20 43.0888888888889
2024-08-21 43.3617283950617
2024-08-22 40.7679012345679
2024-08-23 37.4888888888889
2024-08-26 35.3333333333333
2024-08-27 35.1987654320988
2024-08-28 35.8654320987654
2024-08-29 35.0691358024691
2024-08-30 36.8740740740741
2024-09-03 35.6543209876543
2024-09-04 33.2555555555556
2024-09-05 32.9061728395062
2024-09-06 31.6296296296296
2024-09-09 32.5111111111111
2024-09-10 34.0753086419753
2024-09-11 34.1061728395062
2024-09-12 34.7320987654321
2024-09-13 36.6740740740741
2024-09-16 34.1308641975309
2024-09-17 31.6530864197531
2024-09-18 31.279012345679
2024-09-19 30.7185185185185
2024-09-20 31.9518518518519
2024-09-23 33.6604938271605
2024-09-24 36.5641975308642
2024-09-25 39.1654320987654
2024-09-26 40.8320987654321
2024-09-27 42.4555555555556
2024-09-30 42.5135802469136
2024-10-01 38.3679012345679
2024-10-02 37.2283950617284
2024-10-03 34.1913580246914
2024-10-04 30.7456790123457
2024-10-07 30.7901234567901
2024-10-08 34.1074074074074
2024-10-09 35.9814814814815
2024-10-10 38.2987654320988
2024-10-11 42.4012345679012
2024-10-14 45.6382716049383
2024-10-15 47.7679012345679
2024-10-16 50.2197530864198
2024-10-17 51.6160493827161
2024-10-18 52.7061728395062
2024-10-21 51.2604938271605
2024-10-22 50.1
2024-10-23 47.7271604938272
2024-10-24 46.3506172839506
2024-10-25 42.9802469135803
2024-10-28 40.8876543209877
2024-10-29 39.2506172839506
2024-10-30 37.0395061728395
2024-10-31 35.9012345679012
2024-11-01 34.6777777777778
2024-11-04 33.879012345679
2024-11-05 33.6703703703704
2024-11-06 33.0567901234568
2024-11-07 34.1765432098765
2024-11-08 37.679012345679
2024-11-11 41.062962962963
2024-11-12 44.9123456790124
2024-11-13 46.3641975308642
2024-11-14 46.4493827160494
2024-11-15 43.0740740740741
2024-11-18 42.9296296296296
2024-11-19 40.9740740740741
2024-11-20 38.9222222222222
2024-11-21 36.2901234567901
2024-11-22 36.437037037037
2024-11-25 34.8864197530864
2024-11-26 35.1604938271605
2024-11-27 39.3024691358025
2024-11-29 45.4763821792807
2024-12-02 49.1492216854536
2024-12-03 53.4171229200215
2024-12-04 58.4418142780462
2024-12-05 65.7294685990338
2024-12-06 69.8827160493827
2024-12-09 75.1851851851852
2024-12-10 81.9469135802469
2024-12-11 89.637037037037
2024-12-12 89.9271604938272
2024-12-13 87.5913580246914
2024-12-16 86.7283950617284
2024-12-17 81.4901234567901
2024-12-18 71.3901234567901
2024-12-19 60.183950617284
2024-12-20 52.079012345679
2024-12-23 43.6444444444444
2024-12-24 39.3163446054751
2024-12-26 35.0904186795491
2024-12-27 34.9854804079442
2024-12-30 34.4077026301664
2024-12-31 31.9435050993022
2025-01-02 24.8469135802469
2025-01-03 23.1259259259259
2025-01-06 23.0024691358025
2025-01-07 23.6641975308642
2025-01-08 24.4185185185185
2025-01-10 25.6864197530864
2025-01-13 25.4864197530864
2025-01-14 24.4604938271605
2025-01-15 27.4555555555556
2025-01-16 28.9765432098766
2025-01-17 33.7222222222222
2025-01-21 37.5543209876543
2025-01-22 46.941975308642
2025-01-23 51.3851851851852
2025-01-24 56.1160493827161
2025-01-27 53.0086419753086
2025-01-28 53.7024691358025
2025-01-29 44.8320987654321
2025-01-30 39.1592592592593
2025-01-31 34.4728395061728
2025-02-03 32.1296296296296
2025-02-04 29.4172839506173
2025-02-05 33.4567901234568
2025-02-06 35.2518518518519
2025-02-07 33.0160493827161
2025-02-10 39.6864197530864
2025-02-11 41.7074074074074
2025-02-12 38.9716049382716
2025-02-13 39.0716049382716
2025-02-14 45.2382716049383
2025-02-18 46.437037037037
2025-02-19 48.6950617283951
2025-02-20 51.5024691358025
2025-02-21 50.3469135802469
2025-02-24 45.9950617283951
2025-02-25 40.2876543209877
2025-02-26 33.841975308642
2025-02-27 28.1024691358025
2025-02-28 24.3382716049383
2025-03-03 21.3691358024691
2025-03-04 19.220987654321
2025-03-05 16.7024691358025
2025-03-06 15.8691358024691
2025-03-07 14.683950617284
2025-03-10 14.4185185185185
2025-03-11 13.6543209876543
2025-03-12 14.020987654321
2025-03-13 14.2864197530864
2025-03-14 16.2864197530864
2025-03-17 16.3358024691358
2025-03-18 17.4666666666667
2025-03-19 18.4962962962963
2025-03-20 19.5592592592593
2025-03-21 19.5074074074074
2025-03-24 25.3358024691358
2025-03-25 29.7518518518519
2025-03-26 32.2234567901235
2025-03-27 33.6888888888889
2025-03-28 36.1172839506173
2025-03-31 32.383950617284
2025-04-01 29.3259259259259
2025-04-02 28.4740740740741
2025-04-03 25.9728395061728
2025-04-04 20.6543209876543
2025-04-07 16.6358024691358
2025-04-08 12.937037037037
2025-04-09 8.20617283950617
2025-04-10 6.14320987654321
2025-04-11 5.76666666666667

Note: The data show the depth at the best quoted prices to buy and sell, defined as the ask size plus the bid size divided by 2, for E-mini Standard & Poor's 500 futures. The average value is 278 market depth (number of contracts).

Source: LSEG, DataScope Tick History; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Return to text
Figure 1.14. Commercial real estate prices adjusted for inflation were little changed

Jan. 2001 = 100

Date Equal-weighted
2000-12-01 99.9045551599109
2001-01-01 100
2001-02-01 100.227139373583
2001-03-01 100.492548392287
2001-04-01 100.412616199569
2001-05-01 100.093249939308
2001-06-01 99.8719827211213
2001-07-01 99.9724879540692
2001-08-01 99.7211236060693
2001-09-01 99.0167854355636
2001-10-01 99.1062185164233
2001-11-01 99.022749552728
2001-12-01 99.1503093539684
2002-01-01 98.6703970091886
2002-02-01 98.0895069305071
2002-03-01 97.440392258886
2002-04-01 96.9158946404232
2002-05-01 97.0931458497932
2002-06-01 97.4368225522721
2002-07-01 97.9496683096237
2002-08-01 98.4325767915889
2002-09-01 99.1796203081214
2002-10-01 99.9469994986229
2002-11-01 100.85320300577
2002-12-01 101.95348171912
2003-01-01 102.343985694069
2003-02-01 102.307982122557
2003-03-01 102.302520501641
2003-04-01 103.018984548017
2003-05-01 103.622695882675
2003-06-01 103.943225220058
2003-07-01 104.300190871521
2003-08-01 104.446855132432
2003-09-01 104.679509016491
2003-10-01 105.322209329953
2003-11-01 106.012547721059
2003-12-01 106.431345814887
2004-01-01 106.248322265858
2004-02-01 106.194718420342
2004-03-01 106.304732758618
2004-04-01 106.989038427954
2004-05-01 107.521816840564
2004-06-01 108.420969788771
2004-07-01 109.915145595253
2004-08-01 111.239784312836
2004-09-01 112.384772903911
2004-10-01 113.073342026764
2004-11-01 114.226416474648
2004-12-01 115.839955092776
2005-01-01 116.826451442752
2005-02-01 117.345757297843
2005-03-01 117.591017277866
2005-04-01 118.010839143444
2005-05-01 119.471397244105
2005-06-01 120.87525383084
2005-07-01 121.893127148462
2005-08-01 122.962409607901
2005-09-01 123.186517306176
2005-10-01 124.503075199526
2005-11-01 126.755474645276
2005-12-01 128.232620239505
2006-01-01 128.056019582383
2006-02-01 128.571755223342
2006-03-01 128.568317161341
2006-04-01 128.017621965999
2006-05-01 127.782027219193
2006-06-01 127.876582545146
2006-07-01 127.809587912802
2006-08-01 127.822451270766
2006-09-01 128.706470912628
2006-10-01 129.733060529096
2006-11-01 130.408781665567
2006-12-01 130.845942199072
2007-01-01 131.306228816361
2007-02-01 131.654921450606
2007-03-01 131.659484835106
2007-04-01 132.01357112083
2007-05-01 132.354166528051
2007-06-01 133.104034708207
2007-07-01 133.752611755233
2007-08-01 133.966033368803
2007-09-01 132.773830284876
2007-10-01 131.216819673401
2007-11-01 129.040964005193
2007-12-01 127.875913615972
2008-01-01 126.19202077733
2008-02-01 124.967556907761
2008-03-01 123.125432986344
2008-04-01 121.564876091672
2008-05-01 119.525801564761
2008-06-01 117.092398740371
2008-07-01 115.098083545071
2008-08-01 114.102518174451
2008-09-01 112.673601665923
2008-10-01 112.001175327979
2008-11-01 112.106387251421
2008-12-01 111.032246402659
2009-01-01 108.23125006354
2009-02-01 105.304050565635
2009-03-01 102.61433359213
2009-04-01 99.8857354542633
2009-05-01 97.1499942315724
2009-06-01 93.9819611977512
2009-07-01 91.9630310319376
2009-08-01 89.8633682034152
2009-09-01 88.2270453532131
2009-10-01 86.8705504971036
2009-11-01 85.7837529399755
2009-12-01 85.0849803554764
2010-01-01 84.1127956822138
2010-02-01 83.5748350298149
2010-03-01 82.8823537346398
2010-04-01 82.5094796087811
2010-05-01 82.3536849345414
2010-06-01 82.4804377217758
2010-07-01 82.6671186008028
2010-08-01 82.893249554809
2010-09-01 83.2860920636566
2010-10-01 83.6565519238814
2010-11-01 84.0454085776979
2010-12-01 84.217330826713
2011-01-01 83.9971991250337
2011-02-01 83.6419964292184
2011-03-01 82.8460452678939
2011-04-01 82.3810481064439
2011-05-01 82.20559466454
2011-06-01 82.6489417417653
2011-07-01 83.1033143848882
2011-08-01 83.5102982154329
2011-09-01 84.0557114292858
2011-10-01 84.8089000312146
2011-11-01 85.3028732240139
2011-12-01 85.8117633720424
2012-01-01 85.6769755169155
2012-02-01 85.5326209775373
2012-03-01 85.1264696603024
2012-04-01 85.1098608894215
2012-05-01 85.4680863776213
2012-06-01 85.8979846986943
2012-07-01 86.3833915096232
2012-08-01 86.3351464342036
2012-09-01 86.4938605705834
2012-10-01 87.1947720150561
2012-11-01 88.3205444094308
2012-12-01 89.224008932074
2013-01-01 89.5448860993067
2013-02-01 89.3434049416681
2013-03-01 89.628150771683
2013-04-01 90.3007989063547
2013-05-01 90.832906268798
2013-06-01 91.4176180668537
2013-07-01 92.239617453962
2013-08-01 93.017860033575
2013-09-01 93.8047092080789
2013-10-01 94.9389746350884
2013-11-01 95.9786763034666
2013-12-01 96.7802648304835
2014-01-01 97.1787671222302
2014-02-01 97.5578102142074
2014-03-01 97.6619737459628
2014-04-01 98.1055533230478
2014-05-01 98.5865133553719
2014-06-01 99.2627174012628
2014-07-01 100.129079822364
2014-08-01 101.079144371143
2014-09-01 101.776976402805
2014-10-01 102.876414974701
2014-11-01 104.376000950328
2014-12-01 105.987187817306
2015-01-01 107.485008999207
2015-02-01 107.900583797792
2015-03-01 108.003889458511
2015-04-01 108.44257547474
2015-05-01 108.491794073923
2015-06-01 108.677864326092
2015-07-01 109.21141089785
2015-08-01 109.919479981229
2015-09-01 110.644320377956
2015-10-01 111.254432148829
2015-11-01 112.015650501004
2015-12-01 112.860696068985
2016-01-01 113.026967423405
2016-02-01 113.261866620101
2016-03-01 113.182426053849
2016-04-01 113.21254853978
2016-05-01 113.478602224113
2016-06-01 113.92212532452
2016-07-01 114.930668523525
2016-08-01 115.583407744998
2016-09-01 115.955915875963
2016-10-01 116.323215298842
2016-11-01 116.884128553343
2016-12-01 117.087428879009
2017-01-01 116.591162156778
2017-02-01 116.421934859877
2017-03-01 116.658364827193
2017-04-01 116.867261752437
2017-05-01 117.477534278005
2017-06-01 118.140524765615
2017-07-01 118.973703792609
2017-08-01 119.349296885351
2017-09-01 119.418258708879
2017-10-01 120.082699431599
2017-11-01 120.549840361651
2017-12-01 121.031422168394
2018-01-01 120.813402504633
2018-02-01 120.799131459927
2018-03-01 121.157908285579
2018-04-01 121.382858885926
2018-05-01 121.625912133177
2018-06-01 122.219256263457
2018-07-01 123.032325644144
2018-08-01 123.754009136096
2018-09-01 124.224536020575
2018-10-01 124.349281116104
2018-11-01 124.900648341415
2018-12-01 125.351457435165
2019-01-01 125.273323341302
2019-02-01 125.10620470098
2019-03-01 125.011042942156
2019-04-01 125.164450106997
2019-05-01 125.840211507792
2019-06-01 126.824718851339
2019-07-01 127.567206892495
2019-08-01 128.375580847739
2019-09-01 128.857489231414
2019-10-01 128.961894491412
2019-11-01 129.322083921565
2019-12-01 129.748673346056
2020-01-01 129.60314196474
2020-02-01 129.579007487781
2020-03-01 129.945118051644
2020-04-01 130.543953847619
2020-05-01 130.031195412984
2020-06-01 128.900277486125
2020-07-01 128.299421214534
2020-08-01 128.637391137326
2020-09-01 129.840185779202
2020-10-01 131.428837816395
2020-11-01 133.098505876702
2020-12-01 134.311954521974
2021-01-01 134.918846772302
2021-02-01 135.176838946642
2021-03-01 135.2633804319
2021-04-01 135.345862314567
2021-05-01 135.783693266496
2021-06-01 136.457122527078
2021-07-01 138.199481417517
2021-08-01 140.649886839533
2021-09-01 143.046205821836
2021-10-01 144.502244921881
2021-11-01 146.186179125561
2021-12-01 147.694003423704
2022-01-01 147.58115925139
2022-02-01 146.641494418047
2022-03-01 144.87531222328
2022-04-01 144.687566297325
2022-05-01 144.220394221715
2022-06-01 143.376901368563
2022-07-01 143.847596498662
2022-08-01 143.447634013861
2022-09-01 141.889158661982
2022-10-01 139.590001905435
2022-11-01 137.595518269866
2022-12-01 135.671082042157
2023-01-01 132.320719678228
2023-02-01 129.719360442349
2023-03-01 127.953933044246
2023-04-01 126.414908199987
2023-05-01 125.539689153659
2023-06-01 124.848164233861
2023-07-01 124.549141032985
2023-08-01 124.029488122785
2023-09-01 123.726943438561
2023-10-01 123.679957597401
2023-11-01 123.716109543218
2023-12-01 123.501035885694
2024-01-01 122.421496410624
2024-02-01 121.300164774374
2024-03-01 120.269135646002
2024-04-01 119.681574304032
2024-05-01 119.438934117897
2024-06-01 119.416151881725
2024-07-01 119.298618158019
2024-08-01 119.208463410683
2024-09-01 118.974059012001
2024-10-01 118.847545392487
2024-11-01 119.098186861201
2024-12-01 119.481379628063
2025-01-01 119.318462147202
2025-02-01 119.460158382426

Note: The data are deflated using the consumer price index. The dashed line at 100 indicates the index to January 2001 values.

Source: MSCI- Real Capital Analytics; consumer price index, Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics.

Return to text
Figure 1.15. Income of commercial properties relative to prices continued to increase but remained below the historical average

Percent

Date Percent
2001-01-01 8.57951995415488
2001-02-01 8.57123183069276
2001-03-01 8.55948038187681
2001-04-01 8.56635878507155
2001-05-01 8.58994899215558
2001-06-01 8.59301970565571
2001-07-01 8.60860668671342
2001-08-01 8.63997718489075
2001-09-01 8.65433631910588
2001-10-01 8.67818144016246
2001-11-01 8.7245835880486
2001-12-01 8.7891023466927
2002-01-01 8.81665781746223
2002-02-01 8.85720270943629
2002-03-01 8.88363168943262
2002-04-01 8.90630520873901
2002-05-01 8.90050949871427
2002-06-01 8.89214597315609
2002-07-01 8.84808094719048
2002-08-01 8.79041859841123
2002-09-01 8.72968434904153
2002-10-01 8.66966085131128
2002-11-01 8.61422183639833
2002-12-01 8.5442956308647
2003-01-01 8.49672321438123
2003-02-01 8.46602412360485
2003-03-01 8.45642364845539
2003-04-01 8.43575432876376
2003-05-01 8.39707040550659
2003-06-01 8.35465371644306
2003-07-01 8.32449705218763
2003-08-01 8.27356866964547
2003-09-01 8.25762486253892
2003-10-01 8.22922684636001
2003-11-01 8.20010925960628
2003-12-01 8.14820535923049
2004-01-01 8.11373770993423
2004-02-01 8.05202725744165
2004-03-01 7.98940857282224
2004-04-01 7.94335048313841
2004-05-01 7.91260988358629
2004-06-01 7.87597711758485
2004-07-01 7.84543592830385
2004-08-01 7.81900860767461
2004-09-01 7.76060400387393
2004-10-01 7.71454883489077
2004-11-01 7.65741317525977
2004-12-01 7.57455546322884
2005-01-01 7.52723113948278
2005-02-01 7.50112739001428
2005-03-01 7.46212098378911
2005-04-01 7.41236367620195
2005-05-01 7.35158136965481
2005-06-01 7.29421156143823
2005-07-01 7.23703900887022
2005-08-01 7.18599613917821
2005-09-01 7.13330086725095
2005-10-01 7.08316491264474
2005-11-01 7.05218368624813
2005-12-01 7.02128671866828
2006-01-01 6.97486859289599
2006-02-01 6.94360908753486
2006-03-01 6.90565817298801
2006-04-01 6.87169118307284
2006-05-01 6.84589219954109
2006-06-01 6.81466470838275
2006-07-01 6.77738600067699
2006-08-01 6.7637233661853
2006-09-01 6.74369536224695
2006-10-01 6.7364269745896
2006-11-01 6.72658512949431
2006-12-01 6.71229470591535
2007-01-01 6.69489528904053
2007-02-01 6.68345807520257
2007-03-01 6.66931427720389
2007-04-01 6.65056096182322
2007-05-01 6.62837818942516
2007-06-01 6.6175485834744
2007-07-01 6.61732433870289
2007-08-01 6.60735886376433
2007-09-01 6.60333803522247
2007-10-01 6.59572478247805
2007-11-01 6.58688029713707
2007-12-01 6.58476757485623
2008-01-01 6.58969951290042
2008-02-01 6.60055511800819
2008-03-01 6.61823276681089
2008-04-01 6.6442951122798
2008-05-01 6.68495203804509
2008-06-01 6.73024551456989
2008-07-01 6.77226414166548
2008-08-01 6.82617455212975
2008-09-01 6.87071395604349
2008-10-01 6.89156180251903
2008-11-01 6.93719019168336
2008-12-01 6.98869467217064
2009-01-01 7.04613946419748
2009-02-01 7.05293373626682
2009-03-01 7.07947213937689
2009-04-01 7.08659046137192
2009-05-01 7.12275683022887
2009-06-01 7.17760435176201
2009-07-01 7.26246628359397
2009-08-01 7.33999702686021
2009-09-01 7.42036717916739
2009-10-01 7.51815243605986
2009-11-01 7.56111664732619
2009-12-01 7.63283073505772
2010-01-01 7.64201548555978
2010-02-01 7.67246698933808
2010-03-01 7.73304860995521
2010-04-01 7.81176665991611
2010-05-01 7.82584058480536
2010-06-01 7.80508048907551
2010-07-01 7.77520153513719
2010-08-01 7.79180285217396
2010-09-01 7.75902219784935
2010-10-01 7.72902647979515
2010-11-01 7.7041548355098
2010-12-01 7.64684219041306
2011-01-01 7.63928112062773
2011-02-01 7.61248122141839
2011-03-01 7.56422708784928
2011-04-01 7.54380628308515
2011-05-01 7.5096755034245
2011-06-01 7.46485621270015
2011-07-01 7.43379406241739
2011-08-01 7.3835154652228
2011-09-01 7.35027777570606
2011-10-01 7.34598712721012
2011-11-01 7.32004140447982
2011-12-01 7.28778139001714
2012-01-01 7.25171638676673
2012-02-01 7.25265972123437
2012-03-01 7.23085878165015
2012-04-01 7.19459558223313
2012-05-01 7.16471492813406
2012-06-01 7.14532800538344
2012-07-01 7.13168227004127
2012-08-01 7.12147506309
2012-09-01 7.10813953156082
2012-10-01 7.07262455360065
2012-11-01 7.04815045588444
2012-12-01 7.0133136911518
2013-01-01 7.01711491648648
2013-02-01 7.00022833326775
2013-03-01 6.99070898587642
2013-04-01 6.97420247826394
2013-05-01 6.97869722520282
2013-06-01 6.95968926952234
2013-07-01 6.95388526856855
2013-08-01 6.92619264604872
2013-09-01 6.92296700320898
2013-10-01 6.92996267046593
2013-11-01 6.93995534066701
2013-12-01 6.92415391157674
2014-01-01 6.8979759078388
2014-02-01 6.88172083525117
2014-03-01 6.86325584882487
2014-04-01 6.86292104861955
2014-05-01 6.84329297353531
2014-06-01 6.82257345142165
2014-07-01 6.79721910363825
2014-08-01 6.78210940459373
2014-09-01 6.74325568759241
2014-10-01 6.70776529931324
2014-11-01 6.68484123639659
2014-12-01 6.64394292959445
2015-01-01 6.62770797734734
2015-02-01 6.6171371669642
2015-03-01 6.59805222190275
2015-04-01 6.56157150782615
2015-05-01 6.5350008402312
2015-06-01 6.52646126434028
2015-07-01 6.50722987507993
2015-08-01 6.4858936994408
2015-09-01 6.477986598108
2015-10-01 6.45869122230445
2015-11-01 6.43383907315587
2015-12-01 6.41573697943393
2016-01-01 6.41995081753312
2016-02-01 6.40553908880889
2016-03-01 6.39132845010344
2016-04-01 6.38536161822122
2016-05-01 6.37389885484036
2016-06-01 6.3573051012752
2016-07-01 6.33512877774695
2016-08-01 6.32942955416155
2016-09-01 6.3107675235588
2016-10-01 6.2984769826171
2016-11-01 6.30440097455771
2016-12-01 6.31562060086547
2017-01-01 6.29615708216678
2017-02-01 6.29722213445672
2017-03-01 6.30672232031324
2017-04-01 6.31181073895862
2017-05-01 6.30198525435171
2017-06-01 6.28785215674581
2017-07-01 6.28263861834979
2017-08-01 6.27819863504554
2017-09-01 6.27031426988485
2017-10-01 6.2692598181966
2017-11-01 6.26217884940148
2017-12-01 6.24328876426803
2018-01-01 6.23756129141185
2018-02-01 6.2274200255897
2018-03-01 6.21338609824993
2018-04-01 6.20416821434631
2018-05-01 6.19821392208382
2018-06-01 6.19972683549431
2018-07-01 6.20156218627751
2018-08-01 6.19294220588713
2018-09-01 6.20063082930124
2018-10-01 6.19938387527928
2018-11-01 6.19005221257283
2018-12-01 6.17487411681428
2019-01-01 6.18287283520358
2019-02-01 6.17718031306658
2019-03-01 6.18038274295495
2019-04-01 6.17809519984242
2019-05-01 6.19943689066938
2019-06-01 6.18727074483583
2019-07-01 6.18487285356218
2019-08-01 6.1684120207501
2019-09-01 6.15089279188233
2019-10-01 6.13666731122825
2019-11-01 6.12048497764222
2019-12-01 6.11511255590714
2020-01-01 6.11201169302564
2020-02-01 6.10948861865657
2020-03-01 6.08605369018399
2020-04-01 6.07758030068861
2020-05-01 6.03626813307686
2020-06-01 6.03004703392186
2020-07-01 6.00293802039243
2020-08-01 5.99811811781215
2020-09-01 5.99420364227332
2020-10-01 5.97426936551515
2020-11-01 5.96475186166155
2020-12-01 5.94383072363077
2021-01-01 5.91907778585436
2021-02-01 5.91038686103524
2021-03-01 5.89996663736573
2021-04-01 5.89691352526973
2021-05-01 5.8921530167384
2021-06-01 5.88042330469195
2021-07-01 5.86610934829172
2021-08-01 5.85092945861279
2021-09-01 5.80843332464553
2021-10-01 5.77582680150734
2021-11-01 5.75340886171811
2021-12-01 5.70113527446494
2022-01-01 5.67943346720226
2022-02-01 5.65845753635941
2022-03-01 5.63130188009274
2022-04-01 5.60076167421091
2022-05-01 5.5764067317097
2022-06-01 5.54772289152463
2022-07-01 5.53111137971883
2022-08-01 5.51732453803755
2022-09-01 5.52462322910782
2022-10-01 5.53735273855127
2022-11-01 5.54449420618826
2022-12-01 5.57222770738297
2023-01-01 5.5946851433803
2023-02-01 5.60327405600602
2023-03-01 5.64756568015179
2023-04-01 5.68672087110084
2023-05-01 5.74335567352252
2023-06-01 5.81445469751164
2023-07-01 5.86787556581678
2023-08-01 5.91794187573971
2023-09-01 5.97176506957244
2023-10-01 6.02009950246095
2023-11-01 6.06589488157665
2023-12-01 6.10971262329857
2024-01-01 6.13117560124404
2024-02-01 6.17041716503868
2024-03-01 6.21939844456923
2024-04-01 6.25149818236424
2024-05-01 6.28873657466119
2024-06-01 6.31371457659592
2024-07-01 6.33312120757567
2024-08-01 6.36587157075594
2024-09-01 6.39413763183877
2024-10-01 6.4087839164847
2024-11-01 6.41000640700535
2024-12-01 6.40489315990443
2025-01-01 6.41831785213978
2025-02-01 6.42962517514903

Note: The data are a 12-month moving average of weighted capitalization rates in the industrial, retail, office, and multifamily sectors, based on national square footage in 2009. The average value is 6.9 percent.

Source: MSCI—Real Capital Analytics; Andrew C. Florance, Norm G. Miller, Ruijue Peng, and Jay Spivey (2010), "Slicing, Dicing, and Scoping the Size of the U.S. Commercial Real Estate Market," Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, vol. 16 (May–August), pp. 101–18.

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Figure 1.16. Banks reported tightening lending standards for commercial real estate loans in the fourth quarter of 2024

This is a line chart titled "Banks reported tightening lending standards for commercial real estate loans in the fourth quarter of 2024". The x-axis measures time and ranges from 1997 to 2024. The data are quarterly. There is one line on the chart. The line shows "Net percentage of banks reporting." There is also a horizonal line marked at zero. Data points above zero to 100 are labeled "Tightening" and data points below zero to -100 are labeled "Easing". The series begins at about -7 in 1997 before a quick rise to around 40 in the middle of 1998. There is a dip and then an increase to 45 in 2000:Q1. There is a steady decrease and the series reaches its minimum of -25 in 2004:Q4. From there the series climbs to over 90 in 2008:Q4. From this peak, there is a decrease to below 0 starting in 2011 until 2015. The series has a small quick spike to around 27 in 2016, and remains roughly steady until another quick peak of 65 in 2020:Q2, before a dramatic decline to -17 in 2021:Q3. The series increased to 60 in mid-2023 before declining to a local minimum of about 3 in 2024:Q3. It increases slightly to its final value of about 8 in 2024:Q4.

Note: Banks' responses are weighted by their commercial real estate loan market shares. Survey respondents to the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices are asked about the changes over the quarter. The shaded bars with top caps indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: March 2001–November 2001, December 2007–June 2009, and February 2020–April 2020.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

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Figure 1.17. House prices continued to increase in recent months

12-month percent change

Date Zillow CoreLogic Case-Shiller
2003-01-01 7.26332534373231 9.66696051923156 9.6272758502233
2003-02-01 7.34821224877626 9.6195385205472 9.75880944235376
2003-03-01 7.42269461960812 9.58292014330599 9.64979224963961
2003-04-01 7.50336554811996 9.49822952207847 9.46229343175909
2003-05-01 7.58896015990848 9.25589999787549 9.14810828710986
2003-06-01 7.65022220077094 8.99574545739362 8.91032453200359
2003-07-01 7.68648472198072 8.81738863934568 8.86086183199936
2003-08-01 7.72070815308109 8.96223169108277 9.01146476389
2003-09-01 7.78877467048203 9.36831049589821 9.22709163346615
2003-10-01 7.86424520720036 9.8682909557601 9.3863960678611
2003-11-01 7.91725640171265 10.299968581534 9.57833228048011
2003-12-01 7.94381869127312 10.8660168060977 9.81517892253243
2004-01-01 8.00181606663428 11.347539047989 10.2311006658833
2004-02-01 8.12949204176177 11.7552768646661 10.6756019636874
2004-03-01 8.32778330250711 12.3114810416522 11.4221637924368
2004-04-01 8.56356038999629 12.9815774488762 12.0239098781516
2004-05-01 8.84171023086703 13.4813763332134 12.5151699029126
2004-06-01 9.17549172121835 14.1254422720188 12.9775576071456
2004-07-01 9.54799693663055 14.4896635994115 13.1377645748236
2004-08-01 9.88596351055249 14.5576222426931 13.1278958593807
2004-09-01 10.1603455803733 14.7073062115727 13.1529034140648
2004-10-01 10.3782177777532 14.9704730921335 13.2772865632701
2004-11-01 10.5868627200476 15.1927784577723 13.4971535634503
2004-12-01 10.8234889364981 15.464005411207 13.6360381006947
2005-01-01 11.0586381131809 15.5683959962374 13.8014355767181
2005-02-01 11.2633290113605 15.8164284708895 14.0111244103358
2005-03-01 11.4205472221993 16.2123649642166 14.2282065519156
2005-04-01 11.6017669666081 16.3674974866848 14.2427144616227
2005-05-01 11.735813440258 16.2152757411456 14.2982337872455
2005-06-01 11.8333571834265 15.9983641887155 14.2838161041722
2005-07-01 11.8564324352368 15.8735700590202 14.2838387816726
2005-08-01 11.8760852570079 16.0125922940635 14.3674424652191
2005-09-01 11.8906302424721 16.2335527654648 14.5058345690155
2005-10-01 11.8919323394877 15.9559854514134 14.3634037108125
2005-11-01 11.8663777253136 15.5860626162556 14.0825396825397
2005-12-01 11.7646428868724 15.1734738957038 13.5123211697233
2006-01-01 11.573843252028 14.6623512275524 12.9269968150878
2006-02-01 11.316653248244 13.8103653623952 12.0854690298277
2006-03-01 11.039666540233 12.5033922529987 11.0402235994653
2006-04-01 10.6988665564953 10.9382243041654 9.97005988023952
2006-05-01 10.2910111599718 9.31178543134838 8.74668239457386
2006-06-01 9.75908602039988 7.47664492791741 7.28403673991396
2006-07-01 9.1002132154376 5.89581020535434 6.03676048248134
2006-08-01 8.33508479398544 4.51768731114855 4.82037289677127
2006-09-01 7.48175877132778 3.34227429372428 3.71037666798039
2006-10-01 6.63394182638629 2.42245461099367 2.96503496503497
2006-11-01 5.81138423875372 1.45405962708842 2.19835262689225
2006-12-01 5.05505552618081 0.371806984044254 1.73227472100382
2007-01-01 4.39214389808878 -0.538110689295665 1.04518055632361
2007-02-01 3.78664818266821 -1.39127997862213 0.534435261707988
2007-03-01 3.17851930640373 -2.69211455700667 -0.306429548563613
2007-04-01 2.53238901915151 -3.54809513503213 -0.827661312278797
2007-05-01 1.84383499339448 -4.19139527451867 -1.35047185161081
2007-06-01 1.15464472568493 -4.51227335018932 -1.63099431048497
2007-07-01 0.482553638650512 -4.84839340551253 -1.96089052597368
2007-08-01 -0.128110867819128 -5.42086444102317 -2.26138828633407
2007-09-01 -0.676396210400616 -6.30790307210789 -2.75787187839304
2007-10-01 -1.18462988573749 -7.42647430423531 -3.54251562075524
2007-11-01 -1.69199654383919 -8.56497429923127 -4.6125360779829
2007-12-01 -2.19139619025984 -9.65446803342453 -5.39758773126671
2008-01-01 -2.72756043245955 -10.8377175615254 -6.37040280210157
2008-02-01 -3.31728865170011 -11.9415710441545 -7.27790869732011
2008-03-01 -3.9727616253487 -12.6129646530988 -7.84346012404632
2008-04-01 -4.67934997561601 -13.2058688217102 -8.13155438423105
2008-05-01 -5.35861066661929 -13.319424582751 -8.17527076804661
2008-06-01 -5.99807705949875 -13.340425601525 -8.26264184201829
2008-07-01 -6.58609869362452 -13.6587124310925 -8.44245538427537
2008-08-01 -7.22557810234873 -14.0627201573668 -8.84980302946235
2008-09-01 -7.82903668780974 -14.8912695127325 -9.60808396605628
2008-10-01 -8.39175235000199 -15.6920051642764 -10.3475468934828
2008-11-01 -8.87292473543928 -16.1884347528257 -10.8986069878968
2008-12-01 -9.32851331860628 -16.9743995948529 -11.9995384792893
2009-01-01 -9.70502577657835 -17.4618404351501 -12.6958148234744
2009-02-01 -9.90914222693296 -17.0668323959073 -12.748980436196
2009-03-01 -9.98765492158043 -16.2867180775165 -12.7397260273973
2009-04-01 -9.97954847000261 -15.0020256123998 -12.1802534066459
2009-05-01 -9.95217344584196 -13.2943448841091 -11.2860735241289
2009-06-01 -9.85000393375858 -11.5838162073255 -10.0516392458268
2009-07-01 -9.63945453888595 -10.0548164924816 -9.02781968499186
2009-08-01 -9.295522257369 -8.69431870788539 -8.2846359873387
2009-09-01 -8.89048913838322 -7.47589806550391 -7.58446050274844
2009-10-01 -8.40776569967481 -5.85512846102444 -6.64111585825584
2009-11-01 -7.75534650201142 -3.88288876735019 -5.20920099955148
2009-12-01 -6.96855514717156 -2.2338695606658 -3.84817097154845
2010-01-01 -6.1170100413746 -1.41914471679546 -2.91912158543118
2010-02-01 -5.38646759896267 -1.4310555843284 -3.09578647879691
2010-03-01 -4.67244554689381 -0.295283839039686 -1.98621254521875
2010-04-01 -3.93003009814639 0.782685449371042 -1.04804682183203
2010-05-01 -3.19360226487686 0.982926488366688 -0.762637510967129
2010-06-01 -2.60227506126864 0.658781030920796 -1.40186915887852
2010-07-01 -2.29249975066624 -0.184542776195942 -2.11608623548922
2010-08-01 -2.17256080003217 -1.21417490400047 -2.81409703325146
2010-09-01 -2.20788880459507 -2.09645487086077 -3.35494219073714
2010-10-01 -2.36049412007013 -2.77034630392409 -3.6745406824147
2010-11-01 -2.71331984458353 -3.56873076993939 -4.13681222117075
2010-12-01 -3.16146798392389 -3.7144802911392 -4.1180882252676
2011-01-01 -3.64302228920793 -3.61294292229181 -4.11724137931034
2011-02-01 -4.08345244298509 -3.54467480545862 -3.71897937783993
2011-03-01 -4.53804429884518 -4.34684732423273 -4.05292479108635
2011-04-01 -5.07260407799277 -4.54368559110873 -4.29160935350757
2011-05-01 -5.6081346461936 -4.41725092231177 -4.31855277475517
2011-06-01 -6.02302820332401 -3.92236296227167 -3.89979688557887
2011-07-01 -6.14535919206956 -3.09815130190307 -3.53754404987802
2011-08-01 -6.06068926148395 -2.32888537849199 -3.17557877484122
2011-09-01 -5.81962118261594 -1.67888379450976 -3.07032708664686
2011-10-01 -5.5521689921402 -1.43995542665198 -3.29770139034444
2011-11-01 -5.22744892776964 -1.40310396519797 -3.63841489211677
2011-12-01 -4.90563433045524 -1.04114151161619 -3.88963947948517
2012-01-01 -4.5328426693388 -0.437989424267712 -3.50284111342876
2012-02-01 -4.06691196613932 0.501297561072116 -2.71545777971392
2012-03-01 -3.48002015167118 1.87695707389086 -1.3935259108724
2012-04-01 -2.77505673919191 2.65039116717813 -0.495832135671168
2012-05-01 -1.98687131825813 3.33254461543284 0.248773900063966
2012-06-01 -1.14730989985077 3.72957336883135 0.8665633366211
2012-07-01 -0.351399448269795 4.11056765190561 1.36293382042995
2012-08-01 0.328961082119619 4.63665577489131 2.05952884751022
2012-09-01 1.00440022089509 5.2735693942864 2.98922736676894
2012-10-01 1.70734229127121 5.95030033785235 4.00982587963298
2012-11-01 2.4402986064592 6.93260870537346 5.33440655641738
2012-12-01 3.16160761208422 7.79710286080323 6.43681562592484
2013-01-01 3.86108774331751 8.68200892052317 7.56559332140728
2013-02-01 4.46483753005746 9.34489446455581 8.33644301813567
2013-03-01 4.94274977731178 9.89426061181539 8.90622699838068
2013-04-01 5.37502550739115 9.93427941307588 9.0272261139597
2013-05-01 5.86449262763041 9.76210185975755 9.08961996596712
2013-06-01 6.37972584972837 9.42572245805997 9.2547321366208
2013-07-01 6.77928768387246 9.47461625138042 9.70335458830053
2013-08-01 7.21093454263133 9.62532678234134 10.1520387007602
2013-09-01 7.52747328092477 9.92800889691501 10.6054308672762
2013-10-01 7.88653976193687 10.1608707342368 10.8293970547374
2013-11-01 8.02639600726597 10.068206339161 10.7051059395624
2013-12-01 8.09049519011865 9.91299923966422 10.7187543445016
2014-01-01 8.00871943802805 9.85379700931076 10.4358672302682
2014-02-01 7.91831279637102 9.80842163855161 10.1336456324056
2014-03-01 7.80730537787898 8.94562911719661 8.94160583941605
2014-04-01 7.64407616171404 7.96874916215796 7.94197522686627
2014-05-01 7.44207067917955 7.02439852637481 7.03236708696217
2014-06-01 7.08958751991568 6.31883306320908 6.25879043600564
2014-07-01 6.81382427081266 5.72798435194787 5.59135708870356
2014-08-01 6.44361330167711 5.3367369272978 5.05677896982245
2014-09-01 6.11943658237465 5.04442173725242 4.74102837101523
2014-10-01 5.60451726034136 5.06127851866503 4.60670636164211
2014-11-01 5.30232335445731 5.02311585663547 4.57454819277108
2014-12-01 5.1220584294852 4.97884879257907 4.5015067805123
2015-01-01 5.09879238827729 4.99008389674111 4.31072347367761
2015-02-01 5.04174687720317 5.05618508830166 4.22218052167386
2015-03-01 4.98770633347361 5.16517600125794 4.27445871331969
2015-04-01 4.97461744075746 5.20419464420516 4.30166912125674
2015-05-01 4.94061588988684 5.19106782146712 4.35389846975953
2015-06-01 4.95076186166914 5.19949169739897 4.35593526261957
2015-07-01 4.98706276228288 5.08857081027607 4.40375755399989
2015-08-01 5.16545126617356 5.09885548470959 4.46700507614214
2015-09-01 5.42532830540552 5.30667106247543 4.65797656063142
2015-10-01 5.8362449877064 5.34930703393145 4.87717195925703
2015-11-01 6.10778883980193 5.42409159835879 5.08850885088508
2015-12-01 6.30644027197776 5.52575007122596 5.19675578251728
2016-01-01 6.46147027106533 5.64383205527149 5.28152069297401
2016-02-01 6.61443055465376 5.65308742220006 5.19145360700997
2016-03-01 6.60343844668381 5.6220315872181 5.06306520704426
2016-04-01 6.51101601870859 5.58069354897719 5.01264929105137
2016-05-01 6.36988143995517 5.41751063176817 4.94035496072157
2016-06-01 6.34107547502293 5.20131135530286 4.87748630729317
2016-07-01 6.1767139431605 5.19068804823139 4.88280130666513
2016-08-01 5.96535382875401 5.14959522104506 4.98485108329046
2016-09-01 5.73109949118018 5.16345108508677 5.0848425984117
2016-10-01 5.56774132827685 5.31252541706905 5.12454296160878
2016-11-01 5.52277887866194 5.42388759317957 5.19042996631074
2016-12-01 5.5106693897626 5.44491046537912 5.30553969160479
2017-01-01 5.45546327005609 5.4851818349598 5.4965146840361
2017-02-01 5.42942446148433 5.63030747121539 5.55714041193586
2017-03-01 5.57429405280402 5.67905272983116 5.62319497140269
2017-04-01 5.80717300514586 5.65626678455796 5.62496498403271
2017-05-01 5.96607884841952 5.67022171501831 5.6504380614395
2017-06-01 5.99927893459878 5.76217938228283 5.68412951459513
2017-07-01 6.07264745916575 5.78669697981664 5.73192721709197
2017-08-01 6.17909002055657 5.85702706056036 5.81540974680098
2017-09-01 6.26954122700061 5.9265269001706 5.90985701081934
2017-10-01 6.32619827257556 5.97958038185076 6.01054290527689
2017-11-01 6.37245790545931 6.05937147888374 6.09054391488438
2017-12-01 6.41531456033592 6.04263427414553 6.20424101090082
2018-01-01 6.45056653481573 6.01319874308998 6.20667244367418
2018-02-01 6.44234018892094 6.19161749419637 6.42127452570131
2018-03-01 6.50658240056361 6.35391372565763 6.45507184216169
2018-04-01 6.45999511259092 6.28044955041783 6.40216411181244
2018-05-01 6.46746783556958 6.16218996066867 6.24573557969874
2018-06-01 6.35281090540836 5.90256595929786 6.12743823146944
2018-07-01 6.42796524255233 5.73648931995755 5.91214470284238
2018-08-01 6.46983779680619 5.52320132843089 5.65018267894818
2018-09-01 6.49846082367067 5.37370898543564 5.42094455852156
2018-10-01 6.30242026004604 5.20916407245124 5.26990311170349
2018-11-01 6.06834407890003 4.90486629927397 4.93757674989767
2018-12-01 5.83373212127731 4.61166287555488 4.51922585916356
2019-01-01 5.68357257601734 4.41244337045984 4.1203467618562
2019-02-01 5.62254536549166 4.14634553926039 3.81939153842248
2019-03-01 5.50212027170331 3.85588672297801 3.62610797743754
2019-04-01 5.38384953297716 3.76258804100643 3.52442671984048
2019-05-01 5.1636682460809 3.7228279137453 3.41352566319221
2019-06-01 5.059020799921 3.66518468087787 3.20541096897515
2019-07-01 4.82164331713139 3.62727194734843 3.11310627500732
2019-08-01 4.63553632314547 3.71157073724488 3.10262529832936
2019-09-01 4.40871271722333 3.79702933781696 3.16517335410986
2019-10-01 4.44408077145445 3.90557395601126 3.21402483564645
2019-11-01 4.61256818710416 4.13485589464292 3.41313569652348
2019-12-01 4.84581061701552 4.40299632705463 3.68379910103576
2020-01-01 5.06252843343251 4.65381645146923 4.02096189636594
2020-02-01 5.19241109108276 4.90564423078326 4.30507313732205
2020-03-01 5.31793585288514 5.2491893717468 4.57814930015553
2020-04-01 5.40544688537185 5.23857833931728 4.59864207637117
2020-05-01 5.36796971042062 4.94784940138567 4.36132607241807
2020-06-01 5.2360611776455 5.17024570008247 4.37859144227573
2020-07-01 5.23577963769328 5.768858674955 4.84099943214084
2020-08-01 5.60131333424805 6.34575472165463 5.83900226757369
2020-09-01 6.48546233024393 7.11497662931246 7.04710657981685
2020-10-01 7.51169353168901 7.95554464337271 8.42179759377213
2020-11-01 8.57408195002287 8.70370968655727 9.52897354896507
2020-12-01 9.492837682537 9.42889593090103 10.4278578833286
2021-01-01 10.279671905007 9.91554238310511 11.314092000565
2021-02-01 11.1048183388216 10.4296966612623 12.1898597626753
2021-03-01 11.9578879206845 11.426030822652 13.4863834928897
2021-04-01 13.0454679741898 12.8762381743298 14.9986189117024
2021-05-01 14.5700588310714 14.5804886001029 16.9130773103859
2021-06-01 16.3773054233756 15.9271983042175 18.8179626006643
2021-07-01 17.854693133521 16.5441429707509 19.8284811554954
2021-08-01 18.3645152031645 16.7710568205412 19.9607212997679
2021-09-01 17.8408008043298 16.7940427113589 19.6745888266679
2021-10-01 17.0345459419893 16.6938960280501 19.0644038294169
2021-11-01 16.3112349110095 16.7081104107863 18.803271631511
2021-12-01 15.8769684994141 16.895922093731 18.8649455941967
2022-01-01 15.9600883126454 17.1489120957044 19.2496404703494
2022-02-01 16.3243824026726 17.803525221979 20.0459866220736
2022-03-01 16.9443808722699 18.5156742459511 20.7821457821458
2022-04-01 17.3962759583866 18.6572742084956 20.724579663731
2022-05-01 17.4164339350742 18.1328014279962 19.9357920288153
2022-06-01 16.9832543647969 16.5126570454439 17.9934903312273
2022-07-01 16.0263171907521 14.4601816440843 15.6320626789212
2022-08-01 14.9107419139948 12.44233153285 12.9483554100313
2022-09-01 13.7477431320985 10.8429669493397 10.6812571386463
2022-10-01 12.630096228233 9.75612391903988 9.13709294250941
2022-11-01 11.3494218436015 8.46681331010658 7.540401478368
2022-12-01 9.90518348877628 7.01695924701894 5.64689833429064
2023-01-01 7.98521038199808 5.94547199476375 3.84847302521901
2023-02-01 5.92914125436513 5.00380871350993 2.22880027860005
2023-03-01 3.8918386651231 3.84113732371844 0.861162908967629
2023-04-01 2.2405089632633 2.79251888892746 0.0132639188248236
2023-05-01 1.04239853425239 2.211156561358 -0.27746947835737
2023-06-01 0.239676892891325 2.23518105227082 0.0973583436100511
2023-07-01 0.0380334580210373 3.0004432633031 1.10104892826894
2023-08-01 0.400293362477981 4.00332887096131 2.69139544076954
2023-09-01 1.12623060389368 4.76723140564585 4.05459387483356
2023-10-01 1.75310470506621 4.95986994868772 4.79890157730819
2023-11-01 2.24092407786296 5.27259921127759 5.18548468614171
2023-12-01 2.63984615283087 5.58691166885577 5.67807264942743
2024-01-01 3.12584697998092 5.77430243039682 6.17528519707632
2024-02-01 3.62268859131984 5.74172128129915 6.55084312723555
2024-03-01 4.09283501488966 5.46394817256885 6.5481192645131
2024-04-01 4.33924454804729 5.28605367495742 6.39236099598819
2024-05-01 4.25888194121626 4.97015954623736 5.99692297620217
2024-06-01 3.83266561375432 4.71234228449973 5.48566982233174
2024-07-01 3.3492208515813 4.27111844349708 4.93620311895863
2024-08-01 2.93529258831481 3.95478555692692 4.29859173002277
2024-09-01 2.70117346480813 3.63823127920694 3.89660246976774
2024-10-01 2.59852945347594 3.46107339694674 3.55978781875119
2024-11-01 2.54774200255624 3.37151829671921 3.71580498430392
2024-12-01 2.62548990247892 3.3325745165615 3.96463022508038
2025-01-01 2.67808536439452 3.28350407558832 4.07900662677733
2025-02-01 2.57792936119367    

Note: The data extend through February 2025 for Zillow and January 2025 for CoreLogic and Case-Shiller.

Source: Zillow, Inc., Real Estate Data; CoreLogic, Inc., Real Estate Data; S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices.

Return to text
Figure 1.18. Model-based measures of house price valuations climbed to near historically high levels

Percent

Date Owners' equivalent rent Market-based rents
1979 Q1 -2.522356  
1979 Q2 -2.107027  
1979 Q3 -1.735942  
1979 Q4 0.2476236  
1980 Q1 -1.800601  
1980 Q2 -3.071253  
1980 Q3 -4.11974  
1980 Q4 0.7765371  
1981 Q1 5.028568  
1981 Q2 -0.2989462  
1981 Q3 -1.404636  
1981 Q4 1.075645  
1982 Q1 -1.186334  
1982 Q2 2.040483  
1982 Q3 5.159324  
1982 Q4 2.49958  
1983 Q1 5.412419  
1983 Q2 5.401907  
1983 Q3 3.995501  
1983 Q4 -4.098709  
1984 Q1 -3.220999  
1984 Q2 -3.859002  
1984 Q3 -1.135221  
1984 Q4 -0.1206418  
1985 Q1 1.824047  
1985 Q2 6.859153  
1985 Q3 8.547259  
1985 Q4 6.558027  
1986 Q1 7.713731  
1986 Q2 5.3221  
1986 Q3 4.575118  
1986 Q4 2.907347  
1987 Q1 0.5605757  
1987 Q2 -3.252292  
1987 Q3 -2.514158  
1987 Q4 -3.773837  
1988 Q1 -5.414679  
1988 Q2 -0.8212743  
1988 Q3 -0.5456174  
1988 Q4 2.101108  
1989 Q1 -0.4993668  
1989 Q2 2.115839  
1989 Q3 2.311478  
1989 Q4 2.281568  
1990 Q1 2.915658  
1990 Q2 0.1206418  
1990 Q3 -2.055777  
1990 Q4 -2.159962  
1991 Q1 -0.1616728  
1991 Q2 0.1709659  
1991 Q3 -1.094761  
1991 Q4 -2.605774  
1992 Q1 -3.867001  
1992 Q2 -4.345115  
1992 Q3 -3.539037  
1992 Q4 -5.666629  
1993 Q1 -4.699122  
1993 Q2 -4.981854  
1993 Q3 -6.07898  
1993 Q4 -5.12047  
1994 Q1 -6.121392  
1994 Q2 -8.327618  
1994 Q3 -9.619538  
1994 Q4 -8.999312  
1995 Q1 -8.002613  
1995 Q2 -4.066604  
1995 Q3 -2.522724  
1995 Q4 -1.217343  
1996 Q1 -1.42775  
1996 Q2 -5.162833  
1996 Q3 -5.953329  
1996 Q4 -7.135345  
1997 Q1 -6.442668  
1997 Q2 -3.70557  
1997 Q3 -3.296985  
1997 Q4 -4.850688  
1998 Q1 -3.609644  
1998 Q2 -1.544523  
1998 Q3 -3.860934  
1998 Q4 -2.834891  
1999 Q1 -3.158942  
1999 Q2 -1.897717  
1999 Q3 -2.703803  
1999 Q4 -3.506282  
2000 Q1 -1.11043  
2000 Q2 0.7476729  
2000 Q3 3.954485  
2000 Q4 5.66554  
2001 Q1 7.292458  
2001 Q2 7.214261  
2001 Q3 6.23967  
2001 Q4 5.197408  
2002 Q1 3.957978  
2002 Q2 5.17838  
2002 Q3 5.462768  
2002 Q4 6.456894  
2003 Q1 8.46014  
2003 Q2 10.11029  
2003 Q3 8.756621  
2003 Q4 8.450975  
2004 Q1 9.666768 9.790403
2004 Q2 10.08131 9.456412
2004 Q3 14.58415 13.49968
2004 Q4 17.49615 16.79807
2005 Q1 18.03317 17.7036
2005 Q2 22.894 20.98469
2005 Q3 24.56396 22.32756
2005 Q4 25.34116 22.8334
2006 Q1 26.91274 23.64298
2006 Q2 26.65891 24.38691
2006 Q3 26.6558 25.19966
2006 Q4 27.44852 26.37323
2007 Q1 26.84059 25.58978
2007 Q2 27.90347 25.5051
2007 Q3 26.04074 24.42854
2007 Q4 22.58089 21.86736
2008 Q1 20.42382 19.77453
2008 Q2 17.8258 17.20998
2008 Q3 14.5979 15.11616
2008 Q4 9.502544 12.03076
2009 Q1 3.964568 9.402412
2009 Q2 2.785321 9.367735
2009 Q3 0.2094185 6.973314
2009 Q4 -2.477303 4.019486
2010 Q1 -4.727762 1.643217
2010 Q2 -2.671272 3.054481
2010 Q3 -4.570558 0.2856427
2010 Q4 -6.546397 -2.555238
2011 Q1 -7.187676 -4.57345
2011 Q2 -10.65273 -7.892694
2011 Q3 -14.86437 -11.46105
2011 Q4 -16.78599 -13.86056
2012 Q1 -13.49374 -11.86846
2012 Q2 -15.29246 -13.19907
2012 Q3 -17.88593 -15.02129
2012 Q4 -17.51051 -14.51207
2013 Q1 -17.48456 -14.50394
2013 Q2 -16.20893 -13.32259
2013 Q3 -16.08164 -13.14332
2013 Q4 -14.36506 -11.71275
2014 Q1 -12.48096 -10.44569
2014 Q2 -11.48345 -10.07699
2014 Q3 -7.337473 -7.577165
2014 Q4 -7.301196 -7.58906
2015 Q1 -6.518571 -7.434618
2015 Q2 -6.490273 -7.491774
2015 Q3 -6.059019 -7.51754
2015 Q4 -5.800029 -7.276579
2016 Q1 -5.686956 -6.994635
2016 Q2 -5.225313 -6.329087
2016 Q3 -4.970549 -5.827818
2016 Q4 -4.624734 -5.086417
2017 Q1 -4.388714 -4.777756
2017 Q2 -4.386745 -4.292302
2017 Q3 -4.323604 -3.843829
2017 Q4 -1.162319 -1.299282
2018 Q1 0.6432926 0.2117942
2018 Q2 0.6335897 -0.0959713
2018 Q3 1.342067 0.5151113
2018 Q4 1.923581 0.7667382
2019 Q1 4.188242 2.595471
2019 Q2 4.782778 2.698301
2019 Q3 4.816716 2.383018
2019 Q4 6.428515 3.754591
2020 Q1 5.554335 3.426365
2020 Q2 4.960705 4.303326
2020 Q3 4.221198 2.490195
2020 Q4 8.123354 3.765896
2021 Q1 10.172 5.105909
2021 Q2 11.18987 5.303944
2021 Q3 13.70159 5.559357
2021 Q4 15.26423 4.742177
2022 Q1 21.46985 9.291476
2022 Q2 24.95014 12.32425
2022 Q3 22.96114 12.06748
2022 Q4 21.08545 12.05044
2023 Q1 20.36274 12.37444
2023 Q2 24.47757 15.69968
2023 Q3 25.37011 17.37273
2023 Q4 26.91874 18.40076
2024 Q1 25.71 18.25821
2024 Q2 25.64581 19.24737
2024 Q3 26.7767 20.25323
2024 Q4 27.74995 21.42913
2025 Q1   19.93034

Note: The owners' equivalent rent value for 2025:Q1 is based on monthly data through February 2025. The data for the market-based rents model begin in 2004:Q1 and extend through 2025:Q1.

Source: For house prices, Zillow, Inc., Real Estate Data; for rent data, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Return to text
Figure 1.19. House price-to-rent ratios were broadly unchanged and remained elevated across geographic areas

Jan. 2010 = 100

Data Median Bottom Line Middle 80% Top Line Middle 80%
1996-01-01 81.9680915418025 72.6547933360693 104.969631383528
1996-02-01 81.6689457903426 72.6255118999169 104.797602661804
1996-03-01 81.5252691787409 72.3216000210176 104.561305749538
1996-04-01 81.7334999605233 72.2239304015069 105.018792300492
1996-05-01 81.8119532362291 72.0983885933461 104.590773978762
1996-06-01 81.885950628156 71.9923858368561 104.457295233909
1996-07-01 81.9094979140019 71.9351625855537 104.370979982836
1996-08-01 81.9694079023341 71.764951402132 104.381536708425
1996-09-01 81.9964342065548 71.638543706227 104.191741815074
1996-10-01 82.0233026013277 71.4165622920381 104.220643447553
1996-11-01 82.1049269119031 71.3794593609361 103.995635259149
1996-12-01 82.1660680193713 71.4568716900979 103.987119445547
1997-01-01 82.2822815264348 71.5052670569091 103.530708831671
1997-02-01 82.3792746549758 71.5085343672572 103.59713869554
1997-03-01 82.6113790686862 71.6238264052834 103.355712229594
1997-04-01 82.9667723257522 71.7573302754465 103.025176080841
1997-05-01 83.1407175465859 71.9871873959188 103.080496513145
1997-06-01 83.3083957492601 71.9711149818734 102.780928654584
1997-07-01 85.6573067443588 72.0397849848321 102.11686095569
1997-08-01 85.7499973214926 72.1564678445789 102.086683038579
1997-09-01 85.8527553740535 72.1800589336234 102.40079383182
1997-10-01 85.9312167684345 72.2090977450022 102.477045169076
1997-11-01 85.9384692648857 72.3935340719656 102.755300088312
1997-12-01 86.1312113841598 72.4849426380219 102.976023536624
1998-01-01 84.160070258265 73.1525735248624 102.556196983778
1998-02-01 84.2319085876922 73.6454581428501 102.797724746196
1998-03-01 84.3138424979393 74.0570400930065 103.23735941158
1998-04-01 84.2593233112729 74.4052044483368 102.501484079759
1998-05-01 84.2259716020456 74.5472388164411 102.727896439404
1998-06-01 84.1818453563905 74.4264382367169 102.454784402654
1998-07-01 84.2675130708874 74.3113245567336 102.782356094201
1998-08-01 84.5248519715664 74.3209322321466 103.115407187921
1998-09-01 84.8805575737289 74.1214168554938 103.360257289131
1998-10-01 85.1754552079103 74.1168896210413 103.578439484894
1998-11-01 85.4191020056422 74.0721852485136 103.369011199851
1998-12-01 85.628592606828 74.0376330084484 103.768132625868
1999-01-01 85.9582237645995 74.1053305200649 104.089144006301
1999-02-01 86.4578152263263 74.1012966834374 104.756828130955
1999-03-01 87.0953123343675 74.4916191636476 105.274723847925
1999-04-01 87.9150475618979 74.8671409249393 105.796521328493
1999-05-01 88.6794452137111 75.2957983803099 106.556279498544
1999-06-01 89.233023742841 75.8326710831595 107.210588691476
1999-07-01 89.7766637371137 76.3923505079984 107.663317979151
1999-08-01 90.1639803386796 76.7373375867402 107.869784397465
1999-09-01 90.4144237787371 77.2166812350257 107.820344244697
1999-10-01 90.7623313000361 77.7199287428267 107.915441950039
1999-11-01 90.8346763562551 78.0872184369458 108.031284332519
1999-12-01 91.3795864689797 78.5542343589824 108.490591724316
2000-01-01 91.7117447499991 78.8072431687543 108.573395030339
2000-02-01 91.7328344955905 79.1816316823969 108.539402726491
2000-03-01 91.5453622466403 79.5476105755479 108.29380179119
2000-04-01 92.1432488407022 80.0205991259321 108.351038941892
2000-05-01 92.5343449687123 80.8398628324237 108.450341685962
2000-06-01 92.9722142455659 81.3568062760544 108.575210800855
2000-07-01 93.6438145614563 82.0624693663224 108.727260004772
2000-08-01 94.1964286086917 82.6913126054309 108.790149812036
2000-09-01 95.0527697788969 83.1002394650173 108.847976799265
2000-10-01 95.5531811809836 83.7565819128673 108.877251719446
2000-11-01 95.6651689912544 84.2284418484807 108.929195066962
2000-12-01 96.3252462710731 84.6221067612788 108.94123991041
2001-01-01 97.0607389610475 84.7278595680042 108.806610525369
2001-02-01 98.0688317088553 85.1096312473944 108.585393094434
2001-03-01 98.5469350781781 85.6073008317604 108.491032562067
2001-04-01 99.0491952746398 86.1562349047862 108.606112370451
2001-05-01 99.1234235057362 86.5230902141653 109.390567656555
2001-06-01 98.786668517181 87.0105405888233 110.054690317477
2001-07-01 99.0220319874559 87.6222095647537 110.884666268885
2001-08-01 98.8653548315283 88.0353552184695 111.843799918336
2001-09-01 98.8907563227985 88.2408018828969 112.691020865588
2001-10-01 98.8857422125429 88.8351173028083 113.738952753094
2001-11-01 98.7155066114249 89.0298198041066 114.589822651252
2001-12-01 98.7599667289444 88.7180172475541 114.567939618561
2002-01-01 98.7381867532124 88.5807008100532 114.800888316128
2002-02-01 98.9815968141317 88.50221061756 115.005746305513
2002-03-01 99.2288482557036 88.5681908150889 115.355166158616
2002-04-01 99.845953356277 88.7756044749324 114.656804692808
2002-05-01 100.397648402697 89.2223802544949 114.905781077248
2002-06-01 101.174776487204 89.9592419433065 115.123655959421
2002-07-01 101.982888145176 90.6555623760902 114.859400591858
2002-08-01 102.051194704682 90.7588122255299 115.140168677105
2002-09-01 102.089457138756 90.8999710043312 115.679764768019
2002-10-01 102.398281350996 91.1374770594815 116.640342018659
2002-11-01 102.691127418534 91.3299405445296 116.404230368244
2002-12-01 103.384336507718 91.5058440620076 116.437566274999
2003-01-01 103.764462591097 91.7272498221575 116.597716093872
2003-02-01 104.586831752793 91.8734443668123 116.830745881213
2003-03-01 105.006499237677 92.1409121606175 118.640245192366
2003-04-01 105.508819170165 92.40816505478 120.422719907917
2003-05-01 106.005748400306 92.7491417140623 122.073665087822
2003-06-01 106.907569687109 93.021720379295 123.464062023301
2003-07-01 107.38821889169 93.3794211769476 125.139387035663
2003-08-01 107.937668234126 93.4974323263613 126.74302806177
2003-09-01 108.492247905036 94.0408754292707 129.296327961785
2003-10-01 109.154492278944 95.0390744999399 130.657107006782
2003-11-01 109.854288814269 96.1705971954944 132.412894826814
2003-12-01 110.621082185029 97.1720989696339 133.631563201049
2004-01-01 111.16039890976 98.0031491136845 135.108527714924
2004-02-01 111.83782252777 98.942957395666 137.710065135874
2004-03-01 112.460187142686 99.9548136259402 140.143391237565
2004-04-01 113.167495508733 101.088285050521 142.778136862453
2004-05-01 114.310914094735 102.752557498733 145.048325878676
2004-06-01 115.665399301681 103.646991397185 149.227633346733
2004-07-01 116.819841501861 104.605483230384 152.656112971385
2004-08-01 118.015916574138 105.704814039121 155.018256567157
2004-09-01 119.288362866306 106.261178934302 157.389791587856
2004-10-01 120.231671546952 106.437679299436 159.884849539508
2004-11-01 121.584735264641 106.554001350615 160.883970720098
2004-12-01 122.453200465673 106.358170684624 162.913917268981
2005-01-01 122.961095383691 107.010387324603 164.162503266482
2005-02-01 123.590613356628 107.106763688912 166.044514833837
2005-03-01 124.067843892359 106.871982695823 168.10102808148
2005-04-01 124.896298175145 107.618349074015 169.966706684755
2005-05-01 125.404132657404 107.931377069813 172.904140146285
2005-06-01 125.681752761526 108.63906383696 174.66437371477
2005-07-01 126.450649313284 108.332515239775 174.652741669398
2005-08-01 127.35117195831 108.708915867272 174.27155328188
2005-09-01 128.065187377304 109.521036845567 173.39966170724
2005-10-01 127.978625734599 110.936564729663 173.824153988111
2005-11-01 128.436338995757 112.483482949373 173.616565304714
2005-12-01 128.859020306713 112.86979821804 174.139011070499
2006-01-01 129.369296638536 112.922127688726 174.607465490358
2006-02-01 129.884121286286 112.90819014535 174.524072687279
2006-03-01 130.852162967976 112.6234346365 173.776119708962
2006-04-01 131.236031815706 112.289601888247 174.250367734266
2006-05-01 130.952650959837 111.979325750896 173.845741328801
2006-06-01 130.878348702851 111.702924758568 172.33318407088
2006-07-01 130.804090615273 111.349131173186 171.604632406146
2006-08-01 130.566150002433 111.193834250449 170.802947335426
2006-09-01 130.405057963854 110.915189351985 170.168866255328
2006-10-01 129.931627999713 111.044716969469 169.304312216648
2006-11-01 129.619597468243 111.507390534915 168.210340079273
2006-12-01 129.343182030063 112.54808778838 167.262541002752
2007-01-01 129.473428835524 112.766651977861 165.381118502994
2007-02-01 129.472545311521 112.92106390669 164.323618655287
2007-03-01 130.221326758165 112.644398801497 163.521693293008
2007-04-01 130.61061971335 112.169339514317 162.576729463745
2007-05-01 130.551046215525 112.783447284177 161.677583691008
2007-06-01 130.754965083605 112.819286706907 161.030328354383
2007-07-01 129.856230681699 112.473158356259 159.048772799595
2007-08-01 128.841520337913 112.098825935951 156.619960987738
2007-09-01 128.529723032551 111.701246180068 154.153274393072
2007-10-01 128.021379793385 111.216985979499 151.783936158204
2007-11-01 127.281983881549 110.731624974686 149.580070328315
2007-12-01 126.367418332017 110.162773528442 147.238972877037
2008-01-01 125.408893663182 109.42441560548 144.718848472765
2008-02-01 124.23918945332 109.128695353461 142.026616605915
2008-03-01 123.255644202403 108.557981325197 139.291474836477
2008-04-01 122.253667168547 107.972896845293 136.480639113786
2008-05-01 121.042038450906 107.307825831283 133.72915729613
2008-06-01 119.418727417926 106.624951155793 131.156921505641
2008-07-01 117.542992438314 106.147885709635 128.691354073407
2008-08-01 115.662760863542 105.641386767755 126.617263812381
2008-09-01 112.771655267983 105.098062090846 124.508211187759
2008-10-01 111.343061740395 104.457790149894 122.42579242191
2008-11-01 109.781939835803 103.831208406239 120.139146030403
2008-12-01 108.395584457104 102.814078375451 117.797390536008
2009-01-01 107.236332227245 101.207479809896 115.455684793039
2009-02-01 106.065954288878 100.000600380637 113.402089513678
2009-03-01 104.80444248124 99.839402456576 111.349398898197
2009-04-01 103.921661882983 99.606569624033 109.23365318165
2009-05-01 103.006740461063 99.3626895626515 107.338440676552
2009-06-01 101.92924426041 99.2185356565326 105.627559928396
2009-07-01 101.259448249388 98.8057190708553 104.265240687235
2009-08-01 100.445775488624 98.1933604366363 103.026593615678
2009-09-01 100.389972465094 97.9841783530777 102.067584532937
2009-10-01 100.148747916291 98.212588064364 101.293466560638
2009-11-01 100.16172397283 98.6725411005153 100.968161655315
2009-12-01 100.057533453337 99.5216601886815 100.602251628862
2010-01-01 100 100 100
2010-02-01 99.9389241228337 99.5547996908794 100.553591878659
2010-03-01 100.10415702906 99.4240113919567 100.815054925016
2010-04-01 99.9377201702852 98.9674116474046 101.129624118941
2010-05-01 99.8750371833489 98.7707625774213 101.51589216475
2010-06-01 99.6413780472662 98.7144144194714 101.69979011515
2010-07-01 99.3277109995964 98.0342623096682 101.607712065521
2010-08-01 98.8738382690804 97.1671760414325 100.503708887276
2010-09-01 98.3037373286663 96.0805952514782 100.016951247521
2010-10-01 97.7178058817395 94.887203692235 99.7048876601237
2010-11-01 97.0523666007259 93.8511742334943 99.1945411197309
2010-12-01 96.4097568913881 93.0055946910269 98.7719456641428
2011-01-01 95.7788458406376 92.3446860611343 98.3289032437784
2011-02-01 95.1852697851191 90.9382409762751 97.8962906747335
2011-03-01 94.6005048772386 90.4007076456833 97.1977163725558
2011-04-01 94.1226499410347 89.4056586977967 96.871466514728
2011-05-01 93.3603960398608 88.5492349087734 96.2545429176436
2011-06-01 92.5165859316082 86.9775187962572 95.819126109355
2011-07-01 91.8571638794362 85.9352834039009 94.9829111108015
2011-08-01 91.1214562176735 85.1841537505206 94.5385046525214
2011-09-01 90.4340049420311 84.9017235921305 94.0915831226996
2011-10-01 89.8610309330661 84.5209584900899 93.6253225799108
2011-11-01 89.3321215956204 84.1032170105721 93.338256971175
2011-12-01 88.8943214657289 83.3319053036578 93.173162146696
2012-01-01 88.5406819858194 82.6752177594268 92.8687788311097
2012-02-01 88.1771416829096 81.996811661301 92.6959794465223
2012-03-01 88.0644836118515 81.9896827165712 92.7562784502785
2012-04-01 87.5680400289883 82.1198237630824 92.7893206775337
2012-05-01 87.4529048262741 82.2216988316731 92.907689114553
2012-06-01 87.845363840025 82.7020843723221 92.991662261925
2012-07-01 88.4239739999323 83.397475363079 93.0859846886667
2012-08-01 89.3386431805834 83.5645260346095 93.4131343382259
2012-09-01 90.197053724389 83.7872880606016 93.3349952297612
2012-10-01 90.708719698311 83.9761283103639 94.0561853514425
2012-11-01 90.9200172942496 84.3268567013602 94.9705260720127
2012-12-01 90.8792591711916 84.9157148784287 96.0786147089644
2013-01-01 91.2851843303981 85.2411209083355 96.9192718518249
2013-02-01 91.4461746102226 85.5635687926629 98.1668473173828
2013-03-01 91.8607738204039 85.5465329983411 98.9408515948646
2013-04-01 92.2883329678493 85.5471074536714 100.024794843831
2013-05-01 92.765944725127 85.5086772666948 101.606726495764
2013-06-01 93.3794636015468 85.4696857544399 103.069424337048
2013-07-01 94.0572837988866 85.4610830606384 104.83462824277
2013-08-01 94.7823116487041 85.6148365401703 106.460919685815
2013-09-01 95.4529956037891 85.7908717861194 107.744231691388
2013-10-01 96.302631382262 86.1005976633976 108.857968109102
2013-11-01 96.8987000879754 86.3130758594859 109.349081344489
2013-12-01 97.7181792854622 86.8362039037329 109.811467633301
2014-01-01 98.4800607869415 87.2770832404587 110.13680201155
2014-02-01 99.2106732477043 87.4622290219605 110.466134023805
2014-03-01 99.8008113241044 87.5840039239165 110.74547963345
2014-04-01 100.114506519542 87.9517913715965 111.0212260619
2014-05-01 100.551513168809 88.1883017976062 111.583567744477
2014-06-01 100.719444307484 88.4178567569856 112.023292740601
2014-07-01 101.027275131066 88.7792275579027 112.446761663963
2014-08-01 101.067601838224 88.9158101281142 113.428307820408
2014-09-01 101.297234280068 89.0092404900682 114.195425659471
2014-10-01 101.824551937244 88.9159892279839 114.89111191571
2014-11-01 102.240203519068 89.0665876335543 115.181924322555
2014-12-01 102.431641581929 89.2805011934455 115.933241442193
2015-01-01 102.378560936747 89.2909177381915 116.643063997536
2015-02-01 102.702109958122 88.7417132087341 117.12751594699
2015-03-01 102.630345623253 88.6804658796032 117.449741429084
2015-04-01 102.807000808103 88.5547925075348 118.064907933579
2015-05-01 103.027976002525 88.5482912319933 119.077940706845
2015-06-01 103.133629942089 88.3634058056447 119.587191790805
2015-07-01 103.642040911744 88.5204053340995 120.252245905137
2015-08-01 104.263497086093 88.9717660066455 120.886886528423
2015-09-01 104.837359405495 89.2589844167079 121.536783144202
2015-10-01 105.254821647239 89.7362049202793 122.323172568617
2015-11-01 105.664441558832 89.6607764219283 122.984916895994
2015-12-01 106.087836258159 89.5824702178525 123.33632015757
2016-01-01 106.522722490121 89.833266380076 123.795549055943
2016-02-01 106.872072573639 89.6876370500178 124.25972735303
2016-03-01 107.22219532119 89.6229093468225 124.61001204893
2016-04-01 107.56203158863 89.6177329238669 124.608502250916
2016-05-01 107.758414577946 89.3495554283013 125.393511282976
2016-06-01 108.167371913585 89.7552644725177 126.083842901281
2016-07-01 108.235812025415 90.0122127655001 126.544603190378
2016-08-01 108.173823850156 90.0485226325363 126.745942020829
2016-09-01 108.010205280039 90.2999919923226 127.082268268249
2016-10-01 108.094911304482 90.5710120617337 127.414664352405
2016-11-01 108.417629393014 90.7813161625496 127.077513294601
2016-12-01 109.118780716772 90.9667480835059 127.017367035176
2017-01-01 109.713586145315 91.3062520958261 127.112983736484
2017-02-01 110.27302179872 90.7156359444208 127.591670262168
2017-03-01 110.782999199103 90.6199971020629 127.993735020058
2017-04-01 111.413783097344 90.4843759478317 128.24439715429
2017-05-01 111.902037129887 90.7417584251391 128.485405788858
2017-06-01 112.008772128158 91.190289389162 129.135685209023
2017-07-01 112.485224525618 91.4360615626244 129.643961305433
2017-08-01 113.075612505491 91.641325077643 130.141262315043
2017-09-01 113.603391653344 91.8989906267721 130.605056925396
2017-10-01 114.012216513945 92.1548395118345 131.046981636139
2017-11-01 114.206547152824 92.4443986396571 131.622996957083
2017-12-01 114.30197285836 92.8072486900552 132.178658053187
2018-01-01 114.551163051399 93.047495517595 132.759517505787
2018-02-01 114.928489274713 93.2015831549535 133.101407188243
2018-03-01 115.480094591557 93.452996672664 133.544060199874
2018-04-01 115.960963118345 93.4405087226022 133.838174976475
2018-05-01 116.444586036148 93.5125440581569 134.336135538831
2018-06-01 116.35609982415 93.3304215131108 133.951199243037
2018-07-01 116.779972628764 93.4643546334644 134.611414878081
2018-08-01 116.958367621706 93.7152372810914 135.271587291907
2018-09-01 116.932232785472 93.897998084432 135.618594163031
2018-10-01 116.760648810694 94.0244922720417 135.503886774444
2018-11-01 116.462986925517 94.09037818293 135.356001362883
2018-12-01 115.960041168897 93.9071978386843 135.464985077027
2019-01-01 115.887393420572 93.9944108145815 135.323683294115
2019-02-01 115.508072415427 94.0564005871999 134.783307314139
2019-03-01 115.006425349327 94.0552359775142 134.377882415498
2019-04-01 114.608899542455 94.0667199138799 133.960831171229
2019-05-01 114.268247886973 94.2337111540441 133.57181986225
2019-06-01 114.125424690379 94.4416865851301 133.032969558937
2019-07-01 113.934603312149 94.5409074016815 132.890620150757
2019-08-01 113.809007085548 94.600647058034 133.402676456427
2019-09-01 113.642272837751 94.7194348617272 133.598335771764
2019-10-01 113.950262520815 94.8979761220721 134.297894659411
2019-11-01 113.885363958049 94.7839244886568 135.178177270855
2019-12-01 114.063881275652 94.9371422666575 135.700187459017
2020-01-01 114.080945982105 94.9639714247019 135.764174227022
2020-02-01 114.280293011373 94.9272411397105 135.728595151513
2020-03-01 114.566820069322 94.8340677445007 135.966691194631
2020-04-01 114.493959781029 94.9404462470528 136.913423524514
2020-05-01 114.27572998169 94.52375129951 135.934695692491
2020-06-01 114.192946355592 94.252820526226 135.274682021944
2020-07-01 114.484379473263 94.1539482706381 134.886595756544
2020-08-01 115.219410621787 94.178993670305 135.372077377004
2020-09-01 116.607593419863 95.0631757765916 136.758767586338
2020-10-01 118.53354499917 95.9782984675831 138.267109748231
2020-11-01 120.677058616396 97.1733705281807 140.305107494352
2020-12-01 122.306887226331 98.28772323491 141.475523321797
2021-01-01 124.151648809794 99.1957796633383 142.887811465977
2021-02-01 125.798550701727 100.075715413561 144.445439665077
2021-03-01 126.891188238471 100.844005056137 145.740177004205
2021-04-01 128.143219729419 101.358047026261 147.297568787049
2021-05-01 129.813099206048 102.135674018176 149.287195571801
2021-06-01 131.889787449217 102.902959701521 151.364373492366
2021-07-01 133.335030448088 103.49354306778 153.959925902373
2021-08-01 134.568237687553 104.273246993285 156.003397086156
2021-09-01 134.819594784145 104.151464608391 156.712350080807
2021-10-01 135.135148720034 104.483783365712 157.614448415007
2021-11-01 136.10920001677 104.165606156937 159.151123171242
2021-12-01 137.070504096417 104.667798041832 160.533080203706
2022-01-01 138.492411106209 105.444715199855 161.835424398462
2022-02-01 141.245511332588 106.053265152717 164.486344481692
2022-03-01 143.625417465452 107.031205861637 167.933025654832
2022-04-01 145.6544626327 107.886657990934 170.734558239838
2022-05-01 147.079952226686 108.350179559739 172.021551639806
2022-06-01 147.348782496107 108.45947727323 172.817589623991
2022-07-01 147.0462726301 107.99935222537 170.804388751074
2022-08-01 145.607688120771 107.393858829038 167.639884393766
2022-09-01 143.660243600531 106.59926885212 163.889644881541
2022-10-01 141.993063986739 105.245700588752 161.241507815299
2022-11-01 139.992116206001 104.680781069138 158.554346108813
2022-12-01 138.180228522831 103.937684964357 156.148268212109
2023-01-01 135.79291532441 103.481574163407 153.689695354666
2023-02-01 134.113988105279 102.775854725895 151.964969230416
2023-03-01 132.811954810789 102.008885516664 149.409010128442
2023-04-01 132.12666597231 101.87179649274 147.916649996172
2023-05-01 131.71538629927 101.96425612529 146.589500619386
2023-06-01 131.665583571734 102.35051364517 146.326826150023
2023-07-01 132.442752942294 102.957928830678 147.386110542952
2023-08-01 133.400207340457 103.518758029418 149.134463376171
2023-09-01 134.084847102635 103.947992388115 150.567045588314
2023-10-01 135.002871390606 103.854549945671 151.43639019792
2023-11-01 134.964410639713 103.722614024979 151.195099697561
2023-12-01 134.872553876385 103.779022533064 150.843398008521
2024-01-01 134.555232102206 103.594656032811 150.239442919551
2024-02-01 134.527827984013 103.619974498831 150.20530018096
2024-03-01 134.591444252442 103.630776735481 150.159700214995
2024-04-01 134.653894446132 103.556330642532 150.223679696386
2024-05-01 133.877644025231 103.404098625405 150.872835324959
2024-06-01 133.781589093354 102.972411766265 151.080163885438
2024-07-01 133.589735743102 102.666147272087 150.903794824864
2024-08-01 133.124798062506 102.42596293094 149.954302887263
2024-09-01 133.192832902753 102.559421363854 149.765901807687
2024-10-01 133.213989107092 102.773210354623 149.779114311463
2024-11-01 133.913724759026 102.959246090576 149.755779616778
2024-12-01 133.205107423088 103.002495567315 149.715654541389
2025-01-01 133.435622093858 103.004142547116 150.037102739114
2025-02-01 133.042620436713 102.973200886685 150.050242757661

Note: The data are seasonally adjusted. Percentiles are based on 19 large metropolitan statistical areas.

Source: For house prices, Zillow, Inc., Real Estate Data; for rent data, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

*Note: On September 19, 2025, the top-right label in figure 1.19 was corrected to show that the data are indexed to January 2010 = 100.

Return to text
Figure 1.20. Inflation adjusted farmland prices rose further in 2024 from already-elevated levels

2023 dollars per acre

Date Midwest index United States
1967 3025.379138  
1968 3173.297307  
1969 3111.826444  
1970 2976.517549  
1971 2782.110632  
1972 2786.487419  
1973 2996.795136  
1974 3618.146919  
1975 4030.747994  
1976 4735.26991  
1977 5682.806762  
1978 5934.423065  
1979 6021.945671  
1980 6026.593789  
1981 5733.10871  
1982 5224.523077  
1983 4435.48434  
1984 3898.567429  
1985 2780.081361  
1986 2208.022704  
1987 1878.483441  
1988 2057.682355  
1989 2251.452079  
1990 2260.315034  
1991 2211.154003  
1992 2217.82709  
1993 2220.180033  
1994 2692.336562  
1995 2598.003012  
1996 2774.401045  
1997 2553.16891 2410.65225
1998 2698.476925 2504.773815
1999 2724.445767 2560.766683
2000 2688.326895 2583.534404
2001 2669.177044 2598.812704
2002 2709.427217 2693.518491
2003 2745.028662 2748.930679
2004 2868.856777 2822.672262
2005 3314.821171 3214.494085
2006 3575.169067 3613.022496
2007 3961.772716 3717.938681
2008 4420.776398 3906.887181
2009 4201.320111 3791.635478
2010 4425.143737 3772.498561
2011 5135.763764 4036.973698
2012 6014.299037 4446.033913
2013 6886.476665 4983.477727
2014 7408.56964 5264.668768
2015 7114.01307 5271.155487
2016 6779.531419 5129.013533
2017 6570.487097 5009.542318
2018 6411.755341 4914.538012
2019 6222.602545 4862.767447
2020 6027.392966 4779.228763
2021 6213.031541 4891.569709
2022 6662.373024 5143.93652
2023 6886.767206 5320
2024 6959.762982 5402.959934

Note: The data for the U.S. begin in 1997. Midwest index is a weighted average of Corn Belt and Great Plains states derived from staff calculations. Values are given in real terms. The median value is 3,596.66 2023 dollars per acre.

Source: Department of Agriculture; Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis staff calculations.

Return to text
Figure 1.21. Farmland prices relative to rents increased to historical highs in 2024

Ratio

Date Midwest index United States
1967 14.13418315  
1968 14.19879016  
1969 14.19528763  
1970 13.99434936  
1971 13.50686423  
1972 13.4008375  
1973 14.17058401  
1974 14.52808886  
1975 14.60469881  
1976 16.1613832  
1977 18.02016694  
1978 19.56115904  
1979 20.57529648  
1980 21.54630274  
1981 21.24967971  
1982 19.55679439  
1983 17.41888327  
1984 15.94691892  
1985 12.99502491  
1986 11.89889043  
1987 11.72150084  
1988 12.5228119  
1989 13.29508303  
1990 13.40922896  
1991 13.50559036  
1992 13.73775651  
1993 13.88773898  
1994 17.97416274  
1995 17.34956535  
1996 18.36206647  
1997 16.6669417  
1998 17.46987848 20.15037594
1999 18.1991863 20.74074074
2000 17.83993333 20.85714286
2001 17.9534721 21.26760563
2002 18.17789453 22.20670391
2003 18.63356997 22.73972603
2004 19.44520488 22.87581699
2005 22.49879125 26.41025641
2006 24.60507286 30.06289308
2007 25.78446123 32.64516129
2008 26.32248824 32.28070175
2009 24.43030238 26.96969697
2010 25.43891798 26.47058824
2011 27.83627176 26.84684685
2012 28.47719386 26.8
2013 30.44885464 28.01470588
2014 32.18539376 29.0070922
2015 31.64414073 28.47222222
2016 32.1020429 29.70588235
2017 32.28286079 29.63235294
2018 31.88732337 29.34782609
2019 31.69066141 29.14285714
2020 31.22402639 29.20863309
2021 32.63138601 30.85106383
2022 35.18499877 33.37837838
2023 35.8479229 34.32258065
2024 36.3370819 34.8125

Note: The data for the U.S. begin in 1998. Midwest index is a weighted average of Corn Belt and Great Plains states derived from staff calculations. The median value is 18.19 ratio.

Source: Department of Agriculture; Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis staff calculations.

Return to text
Figure 2.1. The total debt of businesses and households relative to GDP declined to its lowest level in 20 years

Ratio

Date Private Nonfinancial-Sector Credit-to-GDP Ratio
1980 Q1 0.97690406840244
1980 Q2 0.986460409701747
1980 Q3 0.985762211782811
1980 Q4 0.970645008619832
1981 Q1 0.945661073565572
1981 Q2 0.962580931987408
1981 Q3 0.956740596618607
1981 Q4 0.971714066430994
1982 Q1 0.992005624404835
1982 Q2 0.994518561380468
1982 Q3 0.998200706884249
1982 Q4 1.00177513349504
1983 Q1 0.998792254189179
1983 Q2 0.992476070512075
1983 Q3 0.989277018003193
1983 Q4 0.990527592914971
1984 Q1 0.994903601639077
1984 Q2 1.00582127747873
1984 Q3 1.0173845871335
1984 Q4 1.03731977743554
1985 Q1 1.05476165485626
1985 Q2 1.0692320892261
1985 Q3 1.07819825644044
1985 Q4 1.10435602847285
1986 Q1 1.11505106375616
1986 Q2 1.13359858668438
1986 Q3 1.15175135193088
1986 Q4 1.17386020821332
1987 Q1 1.17852862124843
1987 Q2 1.18574100737387
1987 Q3 1.19426088968186
1987 Q4 1.18912562594923
1988 Q1 1.20281067503034
1988 Q2 1.20499337576849
1988 Q3 1.2096593968958
1988 Q4 1.2114270019737
1989 Q1 1.21102515163067
1989 Q2 1.21535839078137
1989 Q3 1.21740292325426
1989 Q4 1.22944938585272
1990 Q1 1.22831760036821
1990 Q2 1.22658450597883
1990 Q3 1.2283274337519
1990 Q4 1.24203307624169
1991 Q1 1.24132245975181
1991 Q2 1.23189717672766
1991 Q3 1.21616639034525
1991 Q4 1.21021144409645
1992 Q1 1.20013792015278
1992 Q2 1.1847809910516
1992 Q3 1.17579794601228
1992 Q4 1.16360952418444
1993 Q1 1.16403829787803
1993 Q2 1.16434689751223
1993 Q3 1.16769610081112
1993 Q4 1.16216217372249
1994 Q1 1.16464380214209
1994 Q2 1.16126095308483
1994 Q3 1.16525625505127
1994 Q4 1.16684841685526
1995 Q1 1.17558086375038
1995 Q2 1.18723790551559
1995 Q3 1.18994523712682
1995 Q4 1.19393596931575
1996 Q1 1.2009556371075
1996 Q2 1.19730979329851
1996 Q3 1.19961204750764
1996 Q4 1.19584126484863
1997 Q1 1.20118514993145
1997 Q2 1.2004551097129
1997 Q3 1.20671229228624
1997 Q4 1.21409809618103
1998 Q1 1.23042526459204
1998 Q2 1.24994562247852
1998 Q3 1.25534636897294
1998 Q4 1.26176773788569
1999 Q1 1.27890763840087
1999 Q2 1.28949855189
1999 Q3 1.30366971946682
1999 Q4 1.30309644209104
2000 Q1 1.32308959877643
2000 Q2 1.32043547247583
2000 Q3 1.33713407374276
2000 Q4 1.34317831100495
2001 Q1 1.35453477578479
2001 Q2 1.36723162562506
2001 Q3 1.39691178163468
2001 Q4 1.40366850789342
2002 Q1 1.4105894190198
2002 Q2 1.41433906531
2002 Q3 1.4234105119792
2002 Q4 1.43876150585553
2003 Q1 1.44611888765558
2003 Q2 1.46179899769871
2003 Q3 1.45521351047566
2003 Q4 1.45363717710674
2004 Q1 1.46770376049812
2004 Q2 1.47446840391767
2004 Q3 1.48316234613245
2004 Q4 1.4947318693526
2005 Q1 1.49685281586079
2005 Q2 1.51679082071054
2005 Q3 1.52634127902137
2005 Q4 1.5423047410562
2006 Q1 1.55578300424438
2006 Q2 1.57997499386335
2006 Q3 1.59843406592614
2006 Q4 1.61510211146218
2007 Q1 1.62755951169595
2007 Q2 1.64884389631999
2007 Q3 1.66727649880868
2007 Q4 1.68125147722829
2008 Q1 1.7069920194678
2008 Q2 1.69924068834695
2008 Q3 1.71032228406754
2008 Q4 1.72680833085014
2009 Q1 1.73846118558632
2009 Q2 1.7367357019939
2009 Q3 1.71612378037277
2009 Q4 1.67571604304862
2010 Q1 1.65754130992962
2010 Q2 1.62475490135541
2010 Q3 1.60408449380571
2010 Q4 1.57997453080361
2011 Q1 1.57722131488834
2011 Q2 1.55826284607096
2011 Q3 1.55073844812777
2011 Q4 1.53668154270171
2012 Q1 1.51993163150589
2012 Q2 1.51174740229831
2012 Q3 1.51039088660643
2012 Q4 1.51095979950329
2013 Q1 1.49678826928262
2013 Q2 1.49988358321248
2013 Q3 1.49223491459574
2013 Q4 1.48884869194246
2014 Q1 1.50340405232363
2014 Q2 1.48922568063445
2014 Q3 1.47267856825918
2014 Q4 1.48051753233112
2015 Q1 1.48367686070645
2015 Q2 1.48710947569184
2015 Q3 1.49104513916325
2015 Q4 1.49642695901853
2016 Q1 1.50992962135834
2016 Q2 1.50875692654789
2016 Q3 1.51027333979123
2016 Q4 1.5018141763543
2017 Q1 1.50864513868301
2017 Q2 1.51605629055485
2017 Q3 1.51215352776005
2017 Q4 1.50877103499271
2018 Q1 1.5015995973742
2018 Q2 1.51030527704506
2018 Q3 1.50986271757939
2018 Q4 1.51485149035511
2019 Q1 1.51762182875765
2019 Q2 1.51271800114572
2019 Q3 1.50771599118504
2019 Q4 1.50328909799233
2020 Q1 1.56219987272443
2020 Q2 1.73466921529312
2020 Q3 1.60510973918713
2020 Q4 1.59000065567777
2021 Q1 1.56931556906575
2021 Q2 1.56464523452812
2021 Q3 1.55096245960464
2021 Q4 1.52579234854465
2022 Q1 1.52836555909223
2022 Q2 1.52069533539972
2022 Q3 1.51243275590894
2022 Q4 1.49565997240172
2023 Q1 1.48483783475252
2023 Q2 1.47763959216597
2023 Q3 1.45823329679237
2023 Q4 1.44642293288889
2024 Q1 1.44232023755952
2024 Q2 1.43488521822285
2024 Q3 1.4277954992481
2024 Q4 1.4045388244274

Note: The shaded bars with top caps indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: January 1980–July 1980, July 1981–November 1982, July 1990–March 1991, March 2001–November 2001, December 2007–June 2009, and February 2020–April 2020. GDP is gross domestic product.

Source: Federal Reserve Board staff calculations based on Bureau of Economic Analysis, national income and product accounts, and Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release Z.1, "Financial Accounts of the United States."

Return to text
Figure 2.2. Both business and household debt-to-GDP ratios continued to fall

Ratio

Date Nonfinancial business credit-to-GDP Household credit-to-GDP
1980 Q1 0.497089082464168 0.479814985938272
1980 Q2 0.503135465254283 0.483324944447463
1980 Q3 0.502212335938985 0.483549875843826
1980 Q4 0.494959232062895 0.475685776556937
1981 Q1 0.483995613605505 0.461665459960067
1981 Q2 0.496222963119425 0.466357968867983
1981 Q3 0.497047944111054 0.459692652507553
1981 Q4 0.506418521234643 0.46529554519635
1982 Q1 0.520148110956167 0.471857513448668
1982 Q2 0.524987604937857 0.469530956442611
1982 Q3 0.532621656514142 0.465579050370107
1982 Q4 0.532162097902139 0.469613035592896
1983 Q1 0.535836654034519 0.462955600154661
1983 Q2 0.530769677840467 0.461706392671608
1983 Q3 0.528241107303278 0.461035910699915
1983 Q4 0.526836334619863 0.463691258295109
1984 Q1 0.53095428057033 0.463949321068747
1984 Q2 0.539386587343728 0.466434690135004
1984 Q3 0.548403011568832 0.468981575564669
1984 Q4 0.560616465845545 0.476703311589998
1985 Q1 0.563395354510743 0.491366300345518
1985 Q2 0.570321174922646 0.49891091430345
1985 Q3 0.571316774312234 0.506881482128207
1985 Q4 0.580125892926657 0.524230135546188
1986 Q1 0.586240492788872 0.528810570967285
1986 Q2 0.597604359629863 0.535994227054522
1986 Q3 0.606116672009209 0.54563467992167
1986 Q4 0.617304906554346 0.556555301658978
1987 Q1 0.622311079938909 0.556217541309521
1987 Q2 0.622555220799973 0.563185786573897
1987 Q3 0.626249064653791 0.568011825028073
1987 Q4 0.626274112948218 0.562851513001014
1988 Q1 0.632230398244008 0.570580276786327
1988 Q2 0.633170752572815 0.571822623195677
1988 Q3 0.634549063145073 0.575110333750723
1988 Q4 0.636912911896248 0.57451409007745
1989 Q1 0.636353838228802 0.574671313401871
1989 Q2 0.637711464645736 0.577646926135638
1989 Q3 0.635508874321488 0.581894048932773
1989 Q4 0.640293414035301 0.589155971817414
1990 Q1 0.635767255986641 0.592550344381572
1990 Q2 0.632316492472854 0.594268013505977
1990 Q3 0.630873951558042 0.59745348219386
1990 Q4 0.634807742492464 0.607225333749228
1991 Q1 0.627908240651726 0.613414219100083
1991 Q2 0.618510421811361 0.613386754916301
1991 Q3 0.605622809255073 0.610543581090172
1991 Q4 0.59480648219981 0.615404961896644
1992 Q1 0.586127017923019 0.614010902229762
1992 Q2 0.575229690841714 0.609551300209883
1992 Q3 0.567154653345599 0.608643292666677
1992 Q4 0.556485500320845 0.607124023863598
1993 Q1 0.555042686195131 0.608995611682901
1993 Q2 0.553508850644719 0.610838046867508
1993 Q3 0.553012903913894 0.614683196897225
1993 Q4 0.5482899418256 0.613872231896886
1994 Q1 0.549388868370741 0.615254933771354
1994 Q2 0.546313467038668 0.614947486046162
1994 Q3 0.547564852357942 0.61769140269333
1994 Q4 0.545779049716121 0.621069367139137
1995 Q1 0.550259635065869 0.625321228684514
1995 Q2 0.555906564796161 0.631331340719433
1995 Q3 0.55480862279346 0.63513661433336
1995 Q4 0.556647041280727 0.637288928035019
1996 Q1 0.55591037543776 0.645045261669743
1996 Q2 0.554180090727563 0.643129702570946
1996 Q3 0.555589388701194 0.644022658806445
1996 Q4 0.552173540888724 0.643667723959902
1997 Q1 0.555859951175793 0.645325198755658
1997 Q2 0.55730502739521 0.643150082317691
1997 Q3 0.562987608081107 0.643724684205137
1997 Q4 0.568830356060132 0.645267740120903
1998 Q1 0.580175672871309 0.650249591720728
1998 Q2 0.593431284594946 0.656514337883579
1998 Q3 0.599833879630926 0.655512489342017
1998 Q4 0.604269253112038 0.657498484773656
1999 Q1 0.614626269778346 0.664281368622527
1999 Q2 0.618294368904318 0.671204182985678
1999 Q3 0.629408733236939 0.67426098622988
1999 Q4 0.62826634575632 0.674830096334719
2000 Q1 0.638691129202947 0.68439846957348
2000 Q2 0.639929857568318 0.680505614907511
2000 Q3 0.645111994235409 0.692022079507354
2000 Q4 0.648424395998982 0.694753915005964
2001 Q1 0.650597489205348 0.703937286579446
2001 Q2 0.654668931031229 0.71256269459383
2001 Q3 0.661481389920004 0.735430391714679
2001 Q4 0.663366466659756 0.740302041233661
2002 Q1 0.660939676357398 0.749649742662401
2002 Q2 0.658076080187665 0.756262985122333
2002 Q3 0.655404295687197 0.768006216292002
2002 Q4 0.655105898123688 0.783655607731837
2003 Q1 0.650209873181167 0.795909014474417
2003 Q2 0.643970625751474 0.817828371947232
2003 Q3 0.634803762431518 0.820409748044143
2003 Q4 0.625178789344486 0.828458387762255
2004 Q1 0.629591761509906 0.838111998988212
2004 Q2 0.62549283548044 0.84897556843723
2004 Q3 0.626472301747531 0.856690044384915
2004 Q4 0.626067775324985 0.868664094027611
2005 Q1 0.625835905923937 0.87101690993685
2005 Q2 0.630980659084325 0.885810161626217
2005 Q3 0.630597790002954 0.895743489018418
2005 Q4 0.636351409810297 0.905953331245904
2006 Q1 0.639352724727115 0.916430279517264
2006 Q2 0.647843257068204 0.932131736795143
2006 Q3 0.653277518660886 0.945156547265257
2006 Q4 0.663025550658283 0.9520765608039
2007 Q1 0.672673520192638 0.954885991503309
2007 Q2 0.685362019185837 0.963481877134153
2007 Q3 0.700179489082654 0.967097009726027
2007 Q4 0.711627912034054 0.969623565194238
2008 Q1 0.726297922733413 0.980694096734391
2008 Q2 0.732119258957247 0.967121429389707
2008 Q3 0.739634655992661 0.970687628074879
2008 Q4 0.756584123351466 0.970224207498674
2009 Q1 0.76058696816041 0.97787421742591
2009 Q2 0.756861718978814 0.97987398301509
2009 Q3 0.744055353210027 0.972068427162738
2009 Q4 0.719525140825878 0.956190902222739
2010 Q1 0.712167879815315 0.945373430114307
2010 Q2 0.697176331439789 0.927578569915621
2010 Q3 0.692786703551347 0.911297790254363
2010 Q4 0.680033030527372 0.899941500276234
2011 Q1 0.678629468698979 0.898591846189363
2011 Q2 0.675057475350054 0.883205370720909
2011 Q3 0.676091024356326 0.874647423771447
2011 Q4 0.674213570173294 0.862467972528413
2012 Q1 0.67000582806251 0.84992580344338
2012 Q2 0.671278817975932 0.840468584322379
2012 Q3 0.677698472034232 0.832692414572199
2012 Q4 0.685736703795439 0.82522309570785
2013 Q1 0.680693737919482 0.816094531363141
2013 Q2 0.687066594048893 0.812816989163585
2013 Q3 0.689622550362933 0.802612364232807
2013 Q4 0.68800505629967 0.800843635642795
2014 Q1 0.699120663426783 0.804283388896842
2014 Q2 0.69671972065201 0.792505959982437
2014 Q3 0.696455527305087 0.776223040954092
2014 Q4 0.706403483370077 0.774114048961039
2015 Q1 0.713032984861375 0.77064387584508
2015 Q2 0.7198131006362 0.767296375055635
2015 Q3 0.725153527193738 0.765891611969508
2015 Q4 0.732716659496482 0.763710299522049
2016 Q1 0.744671644877481 0.765257976480861
2016 Q2 0.745181918780023 0.763575007767866
2016 Q3 0.747553848882626 0.762719490908602
2016 Q4 0.742921233844223 0.758892942510073
2017 Q1 0.750092634451178 0.758552504231828
2017 Q2 0.756689703082669 0.759366587472181
2017 Q3 0.757344423119452 0.754809104640602
2017 Q4 0.758448682762685 0.750322352230025
2018 Q1 0.75579545676468 0.745804140609516
2018 Q2 0.768392333634195 0.741912943410865
2018 Q3 0.769652377813453 0.740210339765938
2018 Q4 0.774022322639302 0.74082916771581
2019 Q1 0.77864562610129 0.73897620265636
2019 Q2 0.775526174531396 0.737191826614322
2019 Q3 0.77439888464294 0.7333171065421
2019 Q4 0.770421411505663 0.732867686486665
2020 Q1 0.816243601415468 0.745956271308959
2020 Q2 0.92315806961711 0.811511145676013
2020 Q3 0.849082049243261 0.756027689943868
2020 Q4 0.836895010944653 0.75310564473312
2021 Q1 0.824905846118645 0.744409722947109
2021 Q2 0.813385213768014 0.751260020760105
2021 Q3 0.803864193410992 0.747098266193646
2021 Q4 0.79067986254047 0.735112486004179
2022 Q1 0.791437136798169 0.736928422294057
2022 Q2 0.787179707066526 0.733515628333191
2022 Q3 0.781001309720828 0.731431446188113
2022 Q4 0.770927263153591 0.724732709248131
2023 Q1 0.767326665061377 0.717511169691138
2023 Q2 0.762266373544078 0.715373218621893
2023 Q3 0.750701639823973 0.707531656968395
2023 Q4 0.743291498343268 0.703131434545618
2024 Q1 0.74226155617498 0.700058681384537
2024 Q2 0.739508477769054 0.695376740453795
2024 Q3 0.736066427292349 0.691729071955751
2024 Q4 0.725103001413275 0.679435823014128

Note: The shaded bars with top caps indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: January 1980–July 1980, July 1981–November 1982, July 1990–March 1991, March 2001–November 2001, December 2007–June 2009, and February 2020–April 2020. GDP is gross domestic product.

Source: Federal Reserve Board staff calculations based on Bureau of Economic Analysis, national income and product accounts, and Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release Z.1, "Financial Accounts of the United States."

Return to text
Figure 2.3. Business debt adjusted for inflation declined slightly

Percent change, annual rate

Date Growth of agg debt
1997 Q1 5.52456779517903
1997 Q2 6.44216909942188
1997 Q3 10.1060539485424
1997 Q4 7.69096427536651
1998 Q1 11.48576244651
1998 Q2 12.6789920929069
1998 Q3 9.71653611804862
1998 Q4 9.32593040469566
1999 Q1 10.8956364256744
1999 Q2 5.89520925056266
1999 Q3 10.3402928377137
1999 Q4 6.19014417362739
2000 Q1 8.73097716047143
2000 Q2 9.22244674077464
2000 Q3 4.07778231720155
2000 Q4 4.65804975695008
2001 Q1 1.10059427025528
2001 Q2 5.9066149169239
2001 Q3 3.09608783753037
2001 Q4 1.57146538669297
2002 Q1 1.906500200973
2002 Q2 -0.0960769840192413
2002 Q3 -0.218624967423861
2002 Q4 1.21146060740141
2003 Q1 -0.134552263382141
2003 Q2 -0.659553081748565
2003 Q3 1.32491561849649
2003 Q4 -1.62338723153557
2004 Q1 4.49347681571025
2004 Q2 1.4165822367521
2004 Q3 5.56253371697866
2004 Q4 4.78023861558557
2005 Q1 4.66956291473275
2005 Q2 6.21459031768964
2005 Q3 5.00566193415102
2005 Q4 6.55216371485015
2006 Q1 7.76445445713273
2006 Q2 6.72161726119972
2006 Q3 4.62667138515726
2006 Q4 9.20150472010416
2007 Q1 7.88043583188594
2007 Q2 11.2386932925204
2007 Q3 11.2988247467781
2007 Q4 8.0159307935673
2008 Q1 5.92691905932195
2008 Q2 5.95037917301991
2008 Q3 3.22214951126336
2008 Q4 1.57813909536631
2009 Q1 -3.0203042840832
2009 Q2 -4.78829139052731
2009 Q3 -6.21869063376349
2009 Q4 -6.65608091656165
2010 Q1 -3.98279621306275
2010 Q2 -3.69285129876301
2010 Q3 1.24132144293407
2010 Q4 -0.630819909930033
2011 Q1 -1.38114810153213
2011 Q2 0.967475125144775
2011 Q3 1.17613799793234
2011 Q4 2.48849637953077
2012 Q1 0.946128544578791
2012 Q2 2.6216477737657
2012 Q3 5.53973812754103
2012 Q4 6.42375434716334
2013 Q1 1.05832719210589
2013 Q2 4.61436076310672
2013 Q3 5.35909735024276
2013 Q4 3.36235497817407
2014 Q1 5.36717450410979
2014 Q2 4.3371180702784
2014 Q3 4.87773830949068
2014 Q4 7.10869281264251
2015 Q1 6.95620362305849
2015 Q2 6.87772972953885
2015 Q3 4.38092932797761
2015 Q4 4.64549606052636
2016 Q1 6.8720873236391
2016 Q2 2.10771725322107
2016 Q3 3.42847962943879
2016 Q4 0.426893927509679
2017 Q1 4.22211328171595
2017 Q2 5.51000448184854
2017 Q3 4.37728529741042
2017 Q4 3.86477811704783
2018 Q1 1.85958913621673
2018 Q2 1.07737644196433
2018 Q3 3.62792442023141
2018 Q4 2.71770730906412
2019 Q1 4.8717331658978
2019 Q2 2.42523312007055
2019 Q3 4.19474721269796
2019 Q4 0.80415634586821
2020 Q1 18.1218227448458
2020 Q2 15.8607109519666
2020 Q3 -2.84531237577059
2020 Q4 -0.556001985555928
2021 Q1 1.41485337206414
2021 Q2 -3.19265231227348
2021 Q3 -0.0305395856556592
2021 Q4 1.93584026301349
2022 Q1 1.49526585042641
2022 Q2 2.14182004979452
2022 Q3 -1.07237405909484
2022 Q4 -1.35923596919623
2023 Q1 -0.108060662340458
2023 Q2 -2.19803831597742
2023 Q3 -1.02478139414763
2023 Q4 -1.2556735617196
2024 Q1 0.368391377638401
2024 Q2 1.2462920927446
2024 Q3 0.879348078490915
2024 Q4 -1.64195692891991

Note: Nominal debt growth is seasonally adjusted and is translated into real terms after subtracting the growth rate of the price deflator for the core personal consumption expenditures price index.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release Z.1, "Financial Accounts of the United States."

Return to text
Figure 2.4. Net issuance of risky debt picked up moderately

Billions of dollars

Date Institutional leveraged loans High-yield and unrated bonds
2004 Q2 17.2438049316406 -12.7997829915
2004 Q3 5.23060607910156 -4.7444686799
2004 Q4 21.0927886962891 -13.2517237499027
2005 Q1 10.4766082763672 2.97369487239999
2005 Q2 14.6851043701172 -6.410706469
2005 Q3 9.51528930664062 -12.991040792
2005 Q4 20.6117095947266 2.72848883801281
2006 Q1 27.1632843017578 -13.66462260049
2006 Q2 40.140625 12.5665759
2006 Q3 17.8547973632813 -5.58880446140401
2006 Q4 66.3043823242188 30.5087983381185
2007 Q1 40.6788024902344 0.19438353519999
2007 Q2 54.3095092773438 23.3461726256
2007 Q3 25.7214050292969 -7.04300563787999
2007 Q4 36.057373046875 -10.4225800406
2008 Q1 2.209228515625 -20.137899142
2008 Q2 26.2244873046875 3.03224333508
2008 Q3 6.596923828125 -0.386358803119998
2008 Q4 4.79547119140625 -23.475024039
2009 Q1 -11.8175048828125 -25.4492457618
2009 Q2 -15.52490234375 2.31024644920001
2009 Q3 -13.2594604492188 -9.1909206677
2009 Q4 -24.9891357421875 -9.211476421
2010 Q1 -17.8472900390625 3.29614121840999
2010 Q2 -9.70620727539062 13.21006038522
2010 Q3 11.7539978027344 14.20725090757
2010 Q4 -15.3392028808594 25.00720073417
2011 Q1 -4.48370361328125 0.525360469560003
2011 Q2 25.4903869628906 16.39558409807
2011 Q3 -5.516845703125 -7.89381352476999
2011 Q4 3.91107177734375 3.67994934657
2012 Q1 -6.46658325195313 23.27321088568
2012 Q2 18.4444885253906 -13.41272508643
2012 Q3 -4.3779296875 38.551299447
2012 Q4 25.9595336914063 21.514433235054
2013 Q1 11.3007202148438 23.0538808032
2013 Q2 31.3078002929688 19.65314829777
2013 Q3 45.1636962890625 25.86382232293
2013 Q4 43.5355834960938 24.45471547174
2014 Q1 29.44970703125 16.13022019701
2014 Q2 45.6138916015625 15.23672500528
2014 Q3 48.42529296875 32.9089474055
2014 Q4 26.1719970703125 3.99923349074401
2015 Q1 6.462890625 32.918267314
2015 Q2 -3.11236572265625 4.34897208896001
2015 Q3 8.57940673828125 -0.680115462000011
2015 Q4 28.799560546875 -13.22171942204
2016 Q1 9.0941162109375 -0.651168015490006
2016 Q2 4.985595703125 2.29172081972001
2016 Q3 -12.8767700195313 -3.45296512689999
2016 Q4 7.194580078125 -44.46958316503
2017 Q1 -4.2435302734375 9.0480177782
2017 Q2 49.00634765625 -10.84958064711
2017 Q3 13.031982421875 -2.19109402510999
2017 Q4 16.81396484375 -4.00290545473999
2018 Q1 34.333251953125 16.272991855113
2018 Q2 54.8770141601563 -8.73682443242
2018 Q3 45.0819091796875 10.28165573089
2018 Q4 57.5950927734375 -20.52812190214
2019 Q1 33.6610107421875 13.27413095774
2019 Q2 16.1658935546875 19.040025168757
2019 Q3 -16.1549072265625 11.01588355029
2019 Q4 12.594970703125 9.70150317656999
2020 Q1 3.09814453125 4.84000137497001
2020 Q2 -11.4285888671875 89.89656792529
2020 Q3 14.3199462890625 6.65744958298
2020 Q4 -6.167724609375 -9.66000869120002
2021 Q1 13.6552734375 21.49987596717
2021 Q2 51.3404541015625 31.96167438325
2021 Q3 41.23828125 14.70553534896
2021 Q4 41.805908203125 2.15487644673
2022 Q1 49.3033447265625 -11.69424530992
2022 Q2 24.0108642578125 -10.91013221956
2022 Q3 16.0382080078125 -20.61813499021
2022 Q4 -17.26318359375 -16.60512088531
2023 Q1 -14.5274658203125 1.51840729038
2023 Q2 -4.7691650390625 -1.55223850415
2023 Q3 14.095458984375 -1.59190539198
2023 Q4 -10.7762451171875 -3.761433551
2024 Q1 -9.39404296875 -3.10774203096001
2024 Q2 4.4625244140625 14.337085208
2024 Q3 -9.58837890625 4.64573779808
2024 Q4 35.608154296875 -11.780376804
2025 Q1 50.62158203125 1.452907406756

Note: The data begin in 2004:Q2. Institutional leveraged loans generally exclude loan commitments held by banks. The key identifies bars in order from top to bottom (except for some bars with at least one negative value). For 2025:Q1, the value corresponds to preliminary data.

Source: Mergent, Inc., Fixed Income Securities Database; Pitchbook Data, Leveraged Commentary & Data.

Return to text
Figure 2.5. Gross leverage of large businesses edged down but stayed high by historical standards

Percent

Date 75th percentile All firms
2000 Q1 48.2251895902531 30.3529066158282
2000 Q2 47.8512910274851 29.6069408246265
2000 Q3 47.4916752996759 29.0116857280884
2000 Q4 47.0075509955252 29.1774910897011
2001 Q1 47.5055855808914 29.1842878492331
2001 Q2 47.3882550047634 29.370152358469
2001 Q3 47.3327987583499 29.3612186270526
2001 Q4 47.1142569981297 29.9851898477685
2002 Q1 46.0388334437923 30.6159822353919
2002 Q2 44.4789996122333 29.6682649441696
2002 Q3 44.1056157641294 29.44553166015
2002 Q4 44.4271931755248 29.1684941036676
2003 Q1 42.8304982552851 28.9524647684039
2003 Q2 42.1814051044141 28.1292874224795
2003 Q3 41.778402174698 27.7751153206579
2003 Q4 41.5829370986416 26.702645817946
2004 Q1 39.4611769102911 26.2998257103885
2004 Q2 38.9295298728731 25.6935624822736
2004 Q3 38.6766403958058 25.3767368507625
2004 Q4 39.1666128317714 25.1292190056461
2005 Q1 37.810521162171 24.9197213624242
2005 Q2 37.7659268377245 24.8006869221196
2005 Q3 37.485804088461 24.1228842373008
2005 Q4 38.3413203621397 24.1793733267387
2006 Q1 37.4089969135364 24.448020558985
2006 Q2 37.7219468057056 24.3431188355576
2006 Q3 37.6624612074584 24.3490086672652
2006 Q4 38.5743531903771 24.6998067655302
2007 Q1 37.9848455164371 24.9149355751894
2007 Q2 38.6513307464355 25.1602206337977
2007 Q3 38.6792663578789 25.5544191512786
2007 Q4 38.9335972021326 25.8375448869618
2008 Q1 39.0800120932142 26.0462510742595
2008 Q2 38.9784176638834 26.1715240437019
2008 Q3 39.9924244055765 27.1581177872655
2008 Q4 42.6829845310033 28.7488149035031
2009 Q1 41.5219891233024 28.6787056670154
2009 Q2 39.8994417234298 27.9242636495962
2009 Q3 38.4629290894534 26.95826756697
2009 Q4 38.7378386317516 26.7431502134961
2010 Q1 37.0110906327471 26.3291379842933
2010 Q2 36.6398589904147 26.196270151471
2010 Q3 36.2931445382187 26.2058448372349
2010 Q4 36.9740855507758 25.9800860578261
2011 Q1 36.0761787850501 25.7803420728891
2011 Q2 35.5998671606649 25.8307496248011
2011 Q3 36.3781886250051 26.1738530723497
2011 Q4 37.8120971723297 26.0909803067106
2012 Q1 36.9710924028517 26.0410198572139
2012 Q2 37.4025180722038 26.5886372846823
2012 Q3 37.517098734702 26.7190458090176
2012 Q4 38.787018318139 27.0882008620899
2013 Q1 38.0634427761921 26.9390592664831
2013 Q2 38.2434598229825 27.3596590812135
2013 Q3 38.5284832460182 27.6819994265456
2013 Q4 40.0898933743967 27.9065273482085
2014 Q1 39.2143428614575 28.5126810311577
2014 Q2 40.2756251316033 28.4410854995682
2014 Q3 40.7912324899085 28.6124090987181
2014 Q4 42.1460537885801 29.1885281491782
2015 Q1 42.3765319269216 30.0410824880235
2015 Q2 42.0896585905896 30.5652835717543
2015 Q3 42.5620934598104 31.1040127395268
2015 Q4 43.858310478272 32.0425986252139
2016 Q1 43.9076019784855 32.6545202107549
2016 Q2 43.6912887645593 32.8805548785587
2016 Q3 42.9926155232173 32.9677236106384
2016 Q4 43.2083510230931 32.8268962348204
2017 Q1 42.699991517651 33.1052449067938
2017 Q2 42.1884724879684 33.4643759040668
2017 Q3 42.0668661193383 33.2885787312262
2017 Q4 41.9437041601213 32.9337224673694
2018 Q1 41.9608396762431 33.2431748789939
2018 Q2 42.169425075055 33.0301664898869
2018 Q3 41.6678048755891 32.7655757086771
2018 Q4 42.4671964416701 33.0690670565382
2019 Q1 46.2700331472417 35.2360566828042
2019 Q2 46.5750028282507 35.4060399597526
2019 Q3 47.3362823302743 35.483830321303
2019 Q4 47.8909159437464 35.4583883423512
2020 Q1 49.8129046040097 37.4739802603839
2020 Q2 49.1580835074116 37.6750357891329
2020 Q3 47.3758227677371 36.8083393081083
2020 Q4 46.7516247531421 36.1128519949163
2021 Q1 45.9541992708511 35.7005897750231
2021 Q2 45.05478498194 35.163373914922
2021 Q3 44.3745459998892 34.6127335700497
2021 Q4 44.6315017834284 34.2132955913866
2022 Q1 44.8507429676206 34.1103328201521
2022 Q2 45.5892435543826 34.0499378010315
2022 Q3 45.4200284370136 34.1050682853989
2022 Q4 45.681976387343 34.1791768660419
2023 Q1 45.8372898728713 34.3025342306748
2023 Q2 45.2335804517462 34.2251446212127
2023 Q3 45.4838794689724 34.0135658326316
2023 Q4 45.613002732769 33.91786594945
2024 Q1 45.6066101906537 33.7780257965376
2024 Q2 45.2903750098265 33.7731895936259
2024 Q3 44.7176517492279 33.6819915174174
2024 Q4 44.4334746280846 33.3226906448689

Note: Gross leverage is an asset-weighted average of the ratio of firms’ book value of total debt to book value of total assets. The 75th percentile is calculated from a sample of the 2,500 largest firms by assets. The dashed sections of the lines in 2019:Q1 reflect the structural break in the series due to the 2019 compliance deadline for Financial Accounting Standards Board rule Accounting Standards Update 2016-02. The accounting standard requires operating leases, previously considered off-balance-sheet activities, to be included in measures of debt and assets.

Source: Federal Reserve Board staff calculations based on S&P Global, Compustat.

Return to text
Figure 2.6. Interest coverage ratios, which indicate firms' ability to service their debt, increased moderately

Ratio

Date Median for all firms Median for all non-investment grade firms
2000 Q1 2.36029256294827 1.59642342457471
2000 Q2 2.32273712851903 1.55315391191517
2000 Q3 2.26505465547531 1.51984356768175
2000 Q4 2.20765965258479 1.44743158905425
2001 Q1 2.12852564194417 1.37832481920312
2001 Q2 2.08123088685015 1.35227272727273
2001 Q3 1.89320511063217 1.24757067137809
2001 Q4 1.77499224906829 1.28379786329503
2002 Q1 1.78059713527199 1.28154102335532
2002 Q2 1.74299573766832 1.29232022200772
2002 Q3 1.84639474488237 1.40870158079735
2002 Q4 2.00299018253853 1.5269815262609
2003 Q1 2.10272768774252 1.60289336715307
2003 Q2 2.11516853932584 1.51255399568035
2003 Q3 2.16629955947137 1.66925939626206
2003 Q4 2.2970912948953 1.67648423005566
2004 Q1 2.54511898558277 1.91778320595918
2004 Q2 2.87522851919561 2.06372973127364
2004 Q3 3.02274019230613 2.24999874887232
2004 Q4 3.00136668867438 2.35421028146081
2005 Q1 3.01371238753462 2.28494187206838
2005 Q2 3.00964320154291 2.25026505513147
2005 Q3 3.06967615309127 2.2633622410102
2005 Q4 3.04142543827928 2.28958975472108
2006 Q1 3.07049243034305 2.32458536707245
2006 Q2 3.0093085106383 2.27198221515067
2006 Q3 2.97355373565858 2.30451491945533
2006 Q4 2.91834625982243 2.28543307086614
2007 Q1 2.92478651193344 2.23169490775561
2007 Q2 2.83819946245 2.20840599930241
2007 Q3 2.69897596064868 2.10974531305271
2007 Q4 2.72832073779941 2.09589552238806
2008 Q1 2.79427083333333 2.16678399185292
2008 Q2 3.00130157826285 2.2490828150397
2008 Q3 2.98296129568031 2.25634057971015
2008 Q4 2.63148670147687 1.94032390114107
2009 Q1 2.70543766578249 1.97187006838506
2009 Q2 2.47078060193555 1.74433015243525
2009 Q3 2.33367768595041 1.59833912164772
2009 Q4 2.28353658536585 1.67730863877736
2010 Q1 2.62621359223301 1.95625173720534
2010 Q2 2.76175952888743 2.10758659638554
2010 Q3 2.94068210550511 2.19412782963092
2010 Q4 3.03974502024961 2.29073816155989
2011 Q1 3.18821330975727 2.46921841017301
2011 Q2 3.36715629957875 2.5625
2011 Q3 3.51857235951677 2.60909090909091
2011 Q4 3.45894189308626 2.57638806086746
2012 Q1 3.39713735448039 2.51109638140129
2012 Q2 3.41453925590098 2.57979076594438
2012 Q3 3.28194642251611 2.39532946105504
2012 Q4 3.07853626208843 2.37003458126598
2013 Q1 3.18264331210191 2.31944444444444
2013 Q2 3.24778761061947 2.27175915824181
2013 Q3 3.25446428571429 2.23148148148148
2013 Q4 3.15788743559255 2.19223200556491
2014 Q1 3.20796971670466 2.21082702020202
2014 Q2 3.41990599929472 2.38679292929293
2014 Q3 3.47 2.41657826470418
2014 Q4 3.36951428471518 2.30486957451358
2015 Q1 3.34991749174918 2.18130327501122
2015 Q2 3.30264791202781 2.17571785268414
2015 Q3 3.3109228004651 2.20033679563015
2015 Q4 3.11452966121016 2.11836734693878
2016 Q1 2.93339430363209 2.03716579449514
2016 Q2 2.925 1.9849185209663
2016 Q3 2.9600483597964 2.10973348169342
2016 Q4 2.98452157598499 2.01401959698849
2017 Q1 3.04163662123459 2.12527352297593
2017 Q2 3.11214442013129 2.21255713282392
2017 Q3 3.06819860710836 2.28951149425287
2017 Q4 3.08234885171326 2.28948815725819
2018 Q1 3.0566298784389 2.23897209453468
2018 Q2 3.08409610983982 2.33874458874459
2018 Q3 3.17013888888889 2.36029829416486
2018 Q4 3.06569945957079 2.32703488372093
2019 Q1 2.9463424437299 2.21296296296296
2019 Q2 2.88526822956733 2.03572540798474
2019 Q3 2.79617434623348 2.06129210381005
2019 Q4 2.65760869565217 2.01046414165226
2020 Q1 2.48237097748311 1.77924983872377
2020 Q2 2.12623762376238 1.33358881504204
2020 Q3 2.16861335831278 1.23164201966023
2020 Q4 2.03915229885057 1.23852907178952
2021 Q1 2.47382305194805 1.50471698113208
2021 Q2 2.99784482758621 1.89191395070857
2021 Q3 3.2753546855939 2.22851335414678
2021 Q4 3.1906148113647 2.16260350117277
2022 Q1 3.42322693753615 2.20713595820929
2022 Q2 3.39885598827192 2.0419754601227
2022 Q3 3.08098364316151 1.83181096108022
2022 Q4 2.58174112691617 1.6623415107216
2023 Q1 2.46146245059289 1.55568808544165
2023 Q2 2.35622294572121 1.47578125
2023 Q3 2.3818473044258 1.41226843140046
2023 Q4 2.26796973518285 1.38928571428571
2024 Q1 2.37212309641439 1.52599758162031
2024 Q2 2.38558411586822 1.50119178584525
2024 Q3 2.40234302555174 1.56488549618321
2024 Q4 2.6150988677025 1.79452054794521

Note: The interest coverage ratio is earnings before interest and taxes divided by interest payments. Firms with leverage less than 5 percent and interest payments less than $500,000 are excluded.

Source: Federal Reserve Board staff calculations based on S&P Global, Compustat.

Return to text
Figure 2.7. Newly issued leveraged loans with debt multiples greater than 4 increased slightly but remained near their lowest levels in a decade

Percent

Date Debt multiples ≥ 6x Debt multiples 5x-5.99x Debt multiples 4x­4.99x Debt multiples ≤ 4x
2001 2.70000007003546 10.1000003516674 26.1999994516373 61.1000001430512
2002 5.90000003576279 12.2000001370907 27.3000001907349 54.6000003814697
2003 6.69999998062849 11.5000002086163 29.3000012636185 52.6000022888184
2004 8.79999976605177 17.5999999046326 28.600001335144 44.9999988079071
2005 8.00000037997961 25.0999987125397 25.0999987125397 41.8000012636185
2006 16.2999995052814 21.0999995470047 26.3000011444092 36.3999992609024
2007 27.6999995112419 17.4999997019768 23.7000003457069 31.2000006437302
2008 10.700000077486 12.0999999344349 14.2000004649162 63.0999982357025
2009 17.7000001072884 11.5000002086163 17.7000001072884 53.1000018119812
2010 5.8000001590699 17.9000005125999 22.5999996066093 53.7000000476837
2011 14.4000001251698 19.200000166893 22.5999996066093 43.7999993562698
2012 15.8000003546476 21.7999994754791 26.6000002622604 35.8999997377396
2013 16.4000004529953 23.1000006198883 28.999999165535 31.4999997615814
2014 27.1999999880791 21.5000003576279 22.5999996066093 28.7000000476837
2015 18.7000006437302 26.1999994516373 24.8999997973442 30.3000003099442
2016 21.000000089407 24.4000002741814 32.600000500679 21.8999996781349
2017 22.0000006258488 27.5999993085861 27.5999993085861 22.6999998092651
2018 29.6000003814697 26.8999993801117 24.1999998688698 19.3000003695488
2019 32.8999996185303 23.2999995350838 23.4999999403954 20.2999994158745
2020 28.1000003218651 23.8999992609024 25.6999999284744 22.3000004887581
2021 35.0999996066093 20.3999996185303 23.1000006198883 21.4000001549721
2022 36.5000009536743 20.8000004291534 19.3000003695488 23.3999997377396
2023 16.9999994337559 18.7999993562698 26.3999998569489 37.7999991178513
2024 18.8000004738569 25.0999987125397 20.6000000238419 35.4999989271164
2025 Q1 14.4999999552965 30.5000007152557 23.4999999403954 31.4999997615814

Note: Volumes are for large corporations with earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization greater than $50 million and exclude existing tranches of add-ons and amendments as well as restatements with no new money. The key identifies bars in order from top to bottom.

Source: Mergent, Inc., Fixed Income Securities Database; PitchBook Data, Leveraged Commentary & Data.

Return to text
Figure 2.8. The realized default rate on leveraged loans remained well below its previous peaks

Percent

Date Realized default rate Realized default rate (including distressed exchanges)
1999-01-01 1.40374443874576  
1999-02-01 0.620130074272045  
1999-03-01 0.961558060168107  
1999-04-01 0.910025850082999  
1999-05-01 1.08432506922787  
1999-06-01 1.51147782227669  
1999-07-01 1.46856132869432  
1999-08-01 2.58669462674692  
1999-09-01 2.83564148416579  
1999-10-01 2.79553858940607  
1999-11-01 4.23476547428082  
1999-12-01 4.17363270874809  
2000-01-01 5.31955188860257  
2000-02-01 5.63665801395398  
2000-03-01 5.79387818120708  
2000-04-01 7.38707363523978  
2000-05-01 7.1272474346274  
2000-06-01 7.50275817381135  
2000-07-01 7.38638660941154  
2000-08-01 6.65602334926934  
2000-09-01 6.59817681681766  
2000-10-01 6.74029479357337  
2000-11-01 5.7997136872917  
2000-12-01 6.57473346350473  
2001-01-01 5.890289821496  
2001-02-01 5.65193404131812  
2001-03-01 5.48432983996405  
2001-04-01 4.78452184278759  
2001-05-01 6.42183107838333  
2001-06-01 6.27790427404653  
2001-07-01 6.81737551468091  
2001-08-01 6.79872690180133  
2001-09-01 6.50470952417523  
2001-10-01 6.72167813766106  
2001-11-01 6.50463564435449  
2001-12-01 6.30391411142361  
2002-01-01 7.2499241459131  
2002-02-01 7.24500509942625  
2002-03-01 6.8484910901823  
2002-04-01 6.95151266913317  
2002-05-01 5.6949044894794  
2002-06-01 7.41236450994404  
2002-07-01 6.8397177567764  
2002-08-01 6.78220535455937  
2002-09-01 6.41446937703412  
2002-10-01 6.5850341177601  
2002-11-01 6.52532834017819  
2002-12-01 6.01237682581557  
2003-01-01 5.12912891130075  
2003-02-01 5.00880429946855  
2003-03-01 5.47066888423004  
2003-04-01 5.25912875791241  
2003-05-01 5.34793308939678  
2003-06-01 2.62312005668266  
2003-07-01 2.64426832515177  
2003-08-01 2.67290377148024  
2003-09-01 2.90810705065732  
2003-10-01 2.29547070641196  
2003-11-01 2.28463596938286  
2003-12-01 2.24950731862114  
2004-01-01 1.89471401030441  
2004-02-01 1.61166556876154  
2004-03-01 1.11407293913559  
2004-04-01 0.936565901600417  
2004-05-01 0.682252697548041  
2004-06-01 0.94402709654127  
2004-07-01 0.905279421260321  
2004-08-01 0.881211884544273  
2004-09-01 1.00572085360985  
2004-10-01 1.02263104092439  
2004-11-01 1.02447519808232  
2004-12-01 1.01410900355372  
2005-01-01 1.02507496733947  
2005-02-01 1.36950502993963  
2005-03-01 1.26380537907338  
2005-04-01 1.48474248266849  
2005-05-01 1.54252866376508  
2005-06-01 1.29059194154891  
2005-07-01 1.46391596172856  
2005-08-01 1.4322396132521  
2005-09-01 1.65136354081861  
2005-10-01 2.56111587402713  
2005-11-01 2.2919216557973  
2005-12-01 3.02200238489307  
2006-01-01 2.95905018676368  
2006-02-01 2.89026629376766  
2006-03-01 2.7918405529996  
2006-04-01 2.47410163943416  
2006-05-01 2.29884766993254  
2006-06-01 2.27578550094482  
2006-07-01 2.07746169564351  
2006-08-01 2.08233574928927  
2006-09-01 1.56164341405421  
2006-10-01 0.98750704786384  
2006-11-01 1.07120897621029  
2006-12-01 0.478307708235541  
2007-01-01 0.453190511692308  
2007-02-01 0.240578570601142  
2007-03-01 0.232230305288034  
2007-04-01 0.220155865782788  
2007-05-01 0.155571457234322  
2007-06-01 0.154081525205981  
2007-07-01 0.211963491765366  
2007-08-01 0.208792752420673  
2007-09-01 0.424045769819244  
2007-10-01 0.332881677165982  
2007-11-01 0.24513291103573  
2007-12-01 0.238273169122302  
2008-01-01 0.724542626185178  
2008-02-01 0.93826164729208  
2008-03-01 1.07242724769546  
2008-04-01 1.29580863520729  
2008-05-01 1.72659213469707  
2008-06-01 1.69506702223233  
2008-07-01 1.89629559136655  
2008-08-01 2.02854442101493  
2008-09-01 1.90991348704673  
2008-10-01 1.97448896039073  
2008-11-01 1.94408034196998  
2008-12-01 3.74683731955835  
2009-01-01 4.95210475046503  
2009-02-01 5.24589550168725  
2009-03-01 8.01858997184042  
2009-04-01 8.02940634177849  
2009-05-01 8.66045922589369  
2009-06-01 9.14772247672355  
2009-07-01 9.56640311201017  
2009-08-01 9.67577785129606  
2009-09-01 9.75397713835357  
2009-10-01 10.7142905891958  
2009-11-01 10.8148014359355  
2009-12-01 9.60939472782257  
2010-01-01 8.81735742948314  
2010-02-01 8.58590330909801  
2010-03-01 5.81971055173797  
2010-04-01 5.6523123165647  
2010-05-01 4.63584120724762  
2010-06-01 4.0150779158563  
2010-07-01 3.47413584963326  
2010-08-01 3.56979895935773  
2010-09-01 3.54724033716263  
2010-10-01 2.28336283885162  
2010-11-01 2.24556081786527  
2010-12-01 1.87434612836046  
2011-01-01 1.45790184243984  
2011-02-01 1.27066793633522  
2011-03-01 1.11092771671646  
2011-04-01 0.951718684531915  
2011-05-01 0.90789822723715  
2011-06-01 0.911510139282644  
2011-07-01 0.769791093336481  
2011-08-01 0.330341668123339  
2011-09-01 0.323653519645651  
2011-10-01 0.32491801437386  
2011-11-01 0.171682141698186  
2011-12-01 0.172134731379882  
2012-01-01 0.206351211364502  
2012-02-01 0.209284419443092  
2012-03-01 0.205923907398422  
2012-04-01 0.562049004964377  
2012-05-01 1.05330711277078  
2012-06-01 1.04401311129966  
2012-07-01 1.04461234780007  
2012-08-01 1.07437230697445  
2012-09-01 1.00191158921518  
2012-10-01 1.05735938242461  
2012-11-01 1.28076985146929  
2012-12-01 1.27489300372553  
2013-01-01 1.42344671639966  
2013-02-01 1.39987557153018  
2013-03-01 2.20969888342682  
2013-04-01 1.91198073910403  
2013-05-01 1.40383413394867  
2013-06-01 1.37283037838653  
2013-07-01 2.01910441311328  
2013-08-01 2.16113230294211  
2013-09-01 2.41440222521611  
2013-10-01 2.3136263698661  
2013-11-01 2.08240841560821  
2013-12-01 2.10967077730426  
2014-01-01 1.88463049707386  
2014-02-01 1.86266929830805  
2014-03-01 1.20983167850648  
2014-04-01 4.64389225577737  
2014-05-01 4.59783274787342  
2014-06-01 4.40734919905502  
2014-07-01 3.89045923073964  
2014-08-01 3.61034454301361  
2014-09-01 3.34388232555217  
2014-10-01 3.2771207617817  
2014-11-01 3.32944794624261  
2014-12-01 3.23801901087078  
2015-01-01 3.98617346086901  
2015-02-01 3.9172865660013  
2015-03-01 3.78858339595791  
2015-04-01 1.26444788092332  
2015-05-01 1.25911328441314  
2015-06-01 1.24189383465312  
2015-07-01 1.11360934731807  
2015-08-01 1.30380291553553  
2015-09-01 1.27305108622241  
2015-10-01 1.27128002658071  
2015-11-01 1.42234630306705  
2015-12-01 1.50003763151348  
2016-01-01 1.28616060792401  
2016-02-01 1.40506036175156  
2016-03-01 1.75298806932166  
2016-04-01 1.69282639571508  
2016-05-01 1.96225266084013  
2016-06-01 1.97031331590513  
2016-07-01 2.17007772656444  
2016-08-01 1.97993452219405  
2016-09-01 1.94857405847251  
2016-10-01 1.95438623582106  
2016-11-01 1.65983788107019  
2016-12-01 1.57893204311283 2.78063851699279
2017-01-01 1.55738865024389 2.3883696780893
2017-02-01 1.41493389880201 1.98329853862213
2017-03-01 1.48994068287674 1.67364016736402
2017-04-01 1.4276198736791 1.68243953732913
2017-05-01 1.4158488101288 1.59574468085106
2017-06-01 1.54172212922484 1.70575692963753
2017-07-01 1.35740861038153 1.39484978540773
2017-08-01 1.36405619635642 1.4145810663765
2017-09-01 1.53152795658299 1.52008686210641
2017-10-01 1.50896376047973 1.51351351351351
2017-11-01 1.95310325638077 1.93756727664155
2017-12-01 2.05146470457765 1.93965517241379
2018-01-01 1.94674870761357 2.04962243797195
2018-02-01 2.0027603845897 2.15285252960172
2018-03-01 2.42044442206168 2.14822771213749
2018-04-01 2.37383214519444 2.16450216450216
2018-05-01 2.11746878882325 1.93965517241379
2018-06-01 1.97933515015578 2.12314225053079
2018-07-01 1.99335529853962 2.22222222222222
2018-08-01 1.98634287306826 2.23880597014925
2018-09-01 1.81132768106833 2.11640211640212
2018-10-01 1.9233126289033 2.3109243697479
2018-11-01 1.60714425010705 1.97710718002081
2018-12-01 1.63131243102624 1.97505197505198
2019-01-01 1.41925631607619 1.85185185185185
2019-02-01 1.62021388594893 2.03045685279188
2019-03-01 0.929780031781983 1.90380761523046
2019-04-01 1.0079159880045 2.08333333333333
2019-05-01 0.996525775845705 2.04479065238559
2019-06-01 1.3449855651353 1.92307692307692
2019-07-01 1.32180455849828 1.80608365019011
2019-08-01 1.28952293334503 1.77736202057998
2019-09-01 1.29 1.76744186046512
2019-10-01 1.42549737860565 1.81818181818182
2019-11-01 1.47964949822113 1.80995475113122
2019-12-01 1.38718983497751 1.8018018018018
2020-01-01 1.83062399780694 2
2020-02-01 1.82512022533114 2.20338983050847
2020-03-01 1.84279394057552 2.35492010092515
2020-04-01 2.32146330717243 3.13293818797629
2020-05-01 3.14227482325744 3.80067567567568
2020-06-01 3.22706252199177 4.28571428571429
2020-07-01 3.9028203843141 4.81012658227848
2020-08-01 4.07652502814295 4.98732037193576
2020-09-01 4.168453142376 5.31197301854975
2020-10-01 4.11020376469708 5.58375634517767
2020-11-01 3.88708128460096 5.44388609715243
2020-12-01 3.83392559010348 5.39629005059022
2021-01-01 3.38084746263764 5.21885521885522
2021-02-01 3.24729715651773 5.1063829787234
2021-03-01 3.15475286063798 4.91942324003393
2021-04-01 2.60576038054329 4.0447504302926
2021-05-01 1.72590353221716 3.29575021682567
2021-06-01 1.24884205578877 2.44755244755245
2021-07-01 0.57991220877348 1.9315188762072
2021-08-01 0.468600070043025 1.83727034120735
2021-09-01 0.35102429817878 1.50044130626655
2021-10-01 0.198783710061825 0.886524822695036
2021-11-01 0.289490809747674 0.975177304964539
2021-12-01 0.285998310700827 0.96830985915493
2022-01-01 0.287849196318449 0.886524822695036
2022-02-01 0.190219886359247 0.711111111111111
2022-03-01 0.186644990097818 0.706713780918728
2022-04-01 0.184315458505975 0.616197183098592
2022-05-01 0.214841496509942 0.781928757602085
2022-06-01 0.279774757967324 0.865800865800866
2022-07-01 0.27902902726492 0.779220779220779
2022-08-01 0.59964312985254 1.20274914089347
2022-09-01 0.897724368474116 1.36518771331058
2022-10-01 0.830836678820539 1.3828867761452
2022-11-01 0.733432645666677 1.2853470437018
2022-12-01 0.719024140904362 1.45175064047822
2023-01-01 0.829103923452556 1.61839863713799
2023-02-01 1.01517924704664 1.85341196293176
2023-03-01 1.3242211073603 2.18855218855219
2023-04-01 1.31182575776585 2.42881072026801
2023-05-01 1.57621105317956 2.69360269360269
2023-06-01 1.71020415242221 2.96359017781541
2023-07-01 1.7475847971049 3.38409475465313
2023-08-01 1.55079562558493 3.12236286919831
2023-09-01 1.33824550109395 3.17195325542571
2023-10-01 1.43096276917203 3.27731092436975
2023-11-01 1.47821214388951 3.61952861952862
2023-12-01 1.52747128025964 3.83959044368601
2024-01-01 1.47059834804695 4.0274207369323
2024-02-01 1.4112986923983 4.31778929188256
2024-03-01 1.14071335290429 4.22413793103448
2024-04-01 1.30675884493121 4.32900432900433
2024-05-01 1.0772968541297 4.35161009573542
2024-06-01 0.919380265571573 4.31034482758621
2024-07-01 0.916442656691202 4.01709401709402
2024-08-01 0.784237585873954 4.17021276595745
2024-09-01 0.796299426537434 4.20875420875421
2024-10-01 0.733110677721762 4.3956043956044
2024-11-01 0.941801118156484 4.56466610312764
2024-12-01 0.910200545572983 4.7008547008547
2025-01-01 0.943893713438043 4.58477508650519
2025-02-01 0.809353476622968 4.1848299912816

Note: The data begin in December 1998; the data including distressed exchanges begin in December 2016. The default rate is calculated as the amount in default over the past 12 months divided by the total outstanding volume of loans that are not in default at the beginning of the 12-month period. The default rate including distressed exchanges is calculated as the number of issuers in default or distressed exchange over the past 12 months divided by the total number of issuers that are not in default at the beginning of the 12-month period. The shaded bars with top caps indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: March 2001–November 2001, December 2007–June 2009, and February 2020–April 2020.

Source: PitchBook Data, Leveraged Commentary & Data.

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Figure 2.9. Inflation-adjusted household debt was largely unchanged

This is a line chart titled "Inflation-adjusted household debt was largely unchanged". The x-axis measures time and ranges from 1999 to 2024. The data are quarterly. The y-axis measures trillions of dollars (real) and ranges from 0 to 16. There are 3 variables charted on the plot. The first line is labeled "Prime", is designated by a black line, and ranges from about 4 to 13 trillion dollars. This variable rises from around 4 to about 11 trillion dollars from 1999 to 2008 and then declines to 8.8 trillion dollars in 2013. After 2013, this variable rises slowly until it reaches 12.1 trillion dollars in 2021:Q3, falls slightly to 11.8 trillion dollars throughout 2022, then rises again to end at 12.8 trillion dollars in 2024:Q4. The second variable is labeled "Near prime" and is designated by a blue line. It ranges from around 2.6 to around 4.5 trillion dollars. The variable has a slight increase from 3 to around 4.5 trillion dollars from 2002 to 2008 but is otherwise stable around 3 trillion dollars, declining slightly since 2020:Q4 to end at 2.9 trillion dollars in 2024:Q4. The third variable is labeled "Subprime", is designated by the red line, and ranges from 1.4 to around 3.5 trillion dollars. There is a slight increase from 1.4 trillion dollars in 1999 to around 3 trillion dollars in 2007, and there is a steeper increase to around 3.5 trillions of dollars between 2007 and 2010. Then, the variable decreases to around 2 trillion dollars from 2014 to 2020:Q2. It shows a slight drop to around 1.4 trillion dollars throughout 2021 and 2022 before a slight increase to around 1.9 trillion dollars in 2024:Q4.

Note: Subprime are borrowers with an Equifax Risk Score less than 620; near prime are from 620 to 719; prime are greater than 719. Scores are measured contemporaneously. Student loan balances before 2004 are estimated using average growth from 2004 to 2007, by risk score. The data are converted to constant 2024 dollars using the consumer price index.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax; consumer price index, Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics.

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Figure 2.10. Measures of housing leverage stayed significantly below their peak levels

This is a line chart titled "Measures of housing leverage stayed significantly below their peak levels". The x-axis measures time and ranges from 1999 to 2024. The data are quarterly. The y-axis ranges from 60 to 180 and measures indexed ratios of outstanding mortgage debt to home values (with 100 being the ratio in 1999:Q1). There are two variables charted on the plot. The first line is labeled "Relative to model-implied values" and is designated by the black line. It ranges from 100 to 135. The variable starts at 100 in 1999 and increases to around 135 in 2008 before decreasing to about 103 in 2021:Q2 and then rising to 113 in 2024:Q4. The second line is labeled "Relative to market value" and is designated by the blue line. The variable also starts at 100 in 1999 and hovers between 93 and 100 until 2006. It then rises to around 136 in the years 2009-2012 before decreasing to around 78 in 2022:Q3 and finally rising again to over 82 at the end of the sample in 2024:Q4. There is also a horizontal dashed line marked at 100.

Note: Housing leverage is estimated as the ratio of the average outstanding mortgage loan balance for owner-occupied homes with a mortgage to (1) current home values using the Zillow national house price index and (2) model-implied house prices estimated by a staff model based on rents, interest rates, and a time trend.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax; Zillow, Inc., Real Estate Data; Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics.

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Figure 2.11. Mortgage delinquency rates edged up but remained close to the low end of their historical distribution

This is a line chart titled "Mortgage delinquency rates edged up but remained close to the low end of their historical distribution". The x-axis measures time and ranges from 2001 to 2024. The data are quarterly. The y-axis ranges from 0 to 10 percent of mortgages. There are two variables plotted. The first variable is "All mortgages", which is shown as a solid black line. It begins around 3.3 percent in 2001 and stays between 2.9 and 3.5 percent until 2007. It then begins to rise and peaks around 7.4 percent in 2010. It then steadily decreases to around 1.1 percent in 2021 before beginning to rise again to 2.0 percent in 2024:Q4. The second variable is "Mortgages in loss mitigation", which is shown as a solid blue line. It begins around 5.1 percent in 2001 and stays between 5 and 6 percent until rising in 2008 to about 9 percent. It then gradually fluctuates while decreasing until 2017 when the series spikes to 8 percent, then falls back to around 5 percent in 2018:Q1 where it stays until the series spikes again to 8 percent in 2020:Q2. The series then falls again to around 5 percent in 2021 and ends at 4.4 percent at 2024:Q4.

Note: Loss mitigation includes tradelines that have a narrative code of forbearance, natural disaster, payment deferral (including partial), loan modification (including federal government plans), or loans with no scheduled payment and a nonzero balance. Delinquent includes loans reported to the credit bureau as at least 30 days past due.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax.

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Figure 2.12. Very few homeowners had negative equity in their homes

Percent of mortgages

Date Negative equity
2011-01-01 25.2801477
2011-02-01 25.14403759
2011-03-01 24.99349439
2011-04-01 24.93152259
2011-05-01 24.86778766
2011-06-01 24.80639321
2011-07-01 24.65477237
2011-08-01 24.50348051
2011-09-01 24.35737809
2011-10-01 24.65101748
2011-11-01 24.93398222
2011-12-01 25.22515278
2012-01-01 24.69410388
2012-02-01 24.19767741
2012-03-01 23.66744432
2012-04-01 23.20889984
2012-05-01 22.73714373
2012-06-01 22.28260234
2012-07-01 22.1736435
2012-08-01 22.06436208
2012-09-01 21.95828597
2012-10-01 21.83856143
2012-11-01 21.72327356
2012-12-01 21.60469997
2013-01-01 21.11141237
2013-02-01 20.66698986
2013-03-01 20.17616238
2013-04-01 18.42961703
2013-05-01 16.62284533
2013-06-01 14.87236255
2013-07-01 14.35028271
2013-08-01 13.83093694
2013-09-01 13.33092231
2013-10-01 13.37002764
2013-11-01 13.40778486
2013-12-01 13.44668947
2014-01-01 13.24991987
2014-02-01 13.07252344
2014-03-01 12.87645744
2014-04-01 12.22984772
2014-05-01 11.56325433
2014-06-01 10.91967054
2014-07-01 10.73988151
2014-08-01 10.56068372
2014-09-01 10.3878061
2014-10-01 10.48872349
2014-11-01 10.58615501
2014-12-01 10.68659407
2015-01-01 10.5436008
2015-02-01 10.41465931
2015-03-01 10.27218916
2015-04-01 9.81089448
2015-05-01 9.33545318
2015-06-01 8.87653133
2015-07-01 8.70285064
2015-08-01 8.52963032
2015-09-01 8.36244321
2015-10-01 8.36120879
2015-11-01 8.36002953
2015-12-01 8.35879671
2016-01-01 8.27798383
2016-02-01 8.20246359
2016-03-01 8.12183901
2016-04-01 7.77224037
2016-05-01 7.41173511
2016-06-01 7.06350915
2016-07-01 6.82049908
2016-08-01 6.57826395
2016-09-01 6.34457424
2016-10-01 6.31636698
2016-11-01 6.2891235
2016-12-01 6.26101007
2017-01-01 6.18906946
2017-02-01 6.12413954
2017-03-01 6.05234088
2017-04-01 5.85246608
2017-05-01 5.64655486
2017-06-01 5.44790211
2017-07-01 5.28244106
2017-08-01 5.11751836
2017-09-01 4.9584182
2017-10-01 4.94112558
2017-11-01 4.92446662
2017-12-01 4.907297
2018-01-01 4.83929693
2018-02-01 4.77808298
2018-03-01 4.71050232
2018-04-01 4.57110609
2018-05-01 4.42716126
2018-06-01 4.28796195
2018-07-01 4.23688035
2018-08-01 4.18590957
2018-09-01 4.13664704
2018-10-01 4.14557884
2018-11-01 4.15418155
2018-12-01 4.16299557
2019-01-01 4.14798702
2019-02-01 4.13446997
2019-03-01 4.11951412
2019-04-01 4.02813579
2019-05-01 3.93386692
2019-06-01 3.84281944
2019-07-01 3.80144488
2019-08-01 3.76017961
2019-09-01 3.72032491
2019-10-01 3.66656557
2019-11-01 3.61460181
2019-12-01 3.56094814
2020-01-01 3.51876695
2020-02-01 3.47933706
2020-03-01 3.43725928
2020-04-01 3.3802395
2020-05-01 3.32143928
2020-06-01 3.26465063
2020-07-01 3.18478851
2020-08-01 3.10515953
2020-09-01 3.02830438
2020-10-01 2.95595441
2020-11-01 2.88609009
2020-12-01 2.81408016
2021-01-01 2.74729514
2021-02-01 2.68697497
2021-03-01 2.62021964
2021-04-01 2.5176659
2021-05-01 2.4120494
2021-06-01 2.3102107
2021-07-01 2.27230463
2021-08-01 2.23455257
2021-09-01 2.19814935
2021-10-01 2.18375723
2021-11-01 2.16986283
2021-12-01 2.15556587
2022-01-01 2.11821552
2022-02-01 2.08459919
2022-03-01 2.047522
2022-04-01 2.00213866
2022-05-01 1.95535125
2022-06-01 1.91017149
2022-07-01 1.94119825
2022-08-01 1.9721538
2022-09-01 2.00201522
2022-10-01 2.04337861
2022-11-01 2.0833178
2022-12-01 2.12448952
2023-01-01 2.12159234
2023-02-01 2.11899279
2023-03-01 2.11610031
2023-04-01 2.0777164
2023-05-01 2.03809772
2023-06-01 1.99979052
2023-07-01 1.94511246
2023-08-01 1.89008702
2023-09-01 1.8364708
2023-10-01 1.83643494
2023-11-01 1.83640614
2023-12-01 1.83637047
2024-01-01 1.82313029
2024-02-01 1.81073352
2024-03-01 1.79750098
2024-04-01 1.77540201
2024-05-01 1.75258351
2024-06-01 1.73049256
2024-07-01 1.75166919
2024-08-01 1.77281173
2024-09-01 1.79324454
2024-10-01 1.84924297
2024-11-01 1.90342567
2024-12-01 1.95940504

Source: Cotality Real Estate Data.

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Figure 2.13. New mortgage extensions declined for near-prime and subprime borrowers

This is a bar chart titled "New mortgage extensions declined for near-prime and subprime borrowers". The x-axis measures time and ranges from 2000 to 2024. The data are annual. The y-axis ranges from 0 to 1800, in billions of dollars (real). There are three variables plotted. The first variable is labeled "Subprime" and is designated by the orange bar. It ranges from around 90 to around 440 billion dollars. It starts at 287 billion dollars in 2000 and increases to 477 billion dollars between 2001 and 2006. Then it decreases to around 136 billion dollars in 2009 and remains stable between about 100 billion dollars to 150 billion dollars, until falling to 79 billion dollars in 2023. The second variable is labeled "Near prime" and is designated by the blue bars. It ranges from about 270 to 1100 billions of dollars. The variable starts at around 600 billion dollars in 2000 and increases quickly, peaking at just over 1000 billion dollars in 2006 before falling from 2008 through 2012 to around 287 billion dollars. Since then, it increased and stabilized around 490 billion dollars from 2016 to 2022, before a decline and ending at 315 billion dollars in 2024. The third variable is labeled "Prime" and is designated by the black bars. It ranges from around 700 to 1600 billions of dollars. The variable starts at around 800 billion dollars in 2000 and steeply increases to a peak of around 1620 billions of dollars in 2003. The variable remains between 1200 and 1400 billion dollars from 2004 to 2007 before falling sharply from 2008 to 2012 around 800 billion. The variable then builds back up to 957 billion dollars in 2013. It then climbs to around 1050 billion dollars in 2019, jumping to 1580 billion dollars in 2021, and then declining in the final two observations and ending at 1095 billion dollars in 2024.

Note: The figure plots the year-over-year change in balances for the second quarter of each year among those households whose balance increased over this window. Subprime are those with an Equifax Risk Score less than 620; near prime are from 620 to 719; prime are greater than 719. Scores were measured 1 year ago. The data are converted to constant 2024 dollars using the consumer price index. The key identifies bars in order from left to right.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax; consumer price index, Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics.

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Figure 2.14. Credit card balances trended up last year; auto and student loan balances were about unchanged

This is a line chart titled "Credit card balances trended up last year; auto and student loan balances were about unchanged". The x-axis measures time and ranges from 1999 to 2024. The data are quarterly. The y-axis ranges from 200 to 2000 and the units are in billions of dollars (real). There are 3 variables plotted on the chart. The first variable is labeled "Student loans" and is represented by a black line. The variable starts at around 550 billion dollars in 2005. There are two small, brief dips in 2008 and 2012 but otherwise balances steadily increase to about 1840 billion dollars by 2020:Q2. The variable falls slightly and ends at 1593 billion dollars in 2024:Q4. The second line is labeled "Auto loans"; is designated by a blue line; and ranges from around 600 to around 1550 billion dollars. It starts around at around 600 in 1999 and increases to around 1280 billion dollars in 2005. Auto loan balances fall slightly to around 980 in 2012 but began increasing again afterwards; the line ends at 1642 billion dollars in 2024:Q4. The last variable is labeled "Credit cards" and is represented by a red line. It ranges from around 800 to 1300 billion dollars. Starting at around 900 billion dollars in 1999, credit cards balances increase to a little under 1000 billion dollars and remain steady for several years with a peak at around 1300 billion in 2008. Balances began to decrease after 2009 to around 870 billion dollars in 2013 and steadily increased to around 1020 billion dollars by the end of 2019. The line then falls until it reaches 883 billion dollars in 2022:Q1, then rises until 2024:Q4 where the series ends at 1211 billion dollars.

Note: The data are converted to constant 2024 dollars using the consumer price index. Student loan data begin in 2005:Q1.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax; consumer price index, Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics.

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Figure 2.15. The average maturity of auto loans at origination for used cars was elevated for nonprime borrowers

Months

Date Prime Nearprime Subprime
2015-01-01 62.2712450800844 63.7921878297675 63.0392646029049
2015-02-01 62.3311350829791 63.4441966331327 62.1575728130603
2015-03-01 62.4345409062575 63.4901275102188 62.2813655751391
2015-04-01 62.4675102161277 63.7276357833536 63.0180636392179
2015-05-01 62.5289046148641 63.9853808093393 63.2147946260765
2015-06-01 62.56726443792 64.0245202328851 63.3490242747683
2015-07-01 62.678007140726 64.2199737088928 63.5020930445352
2015-08-01 62.670644163841 64.0749028844745 63.3887496674707
2015-09-01 62.8645571950592 64.1397890701736 63.4109300292927
2015-10-01 62.9749112869363 64.2718864341101 63.4955984636472
2015-11-01 63.0527507269054 64.3593793773472 63.6072799740114
2015-12-01 63.1481713657921 64.5137452046964 63.75053637665
2016-01-01 63.1999707976725 64.7436918323099 64.1537997127606
2016-02-01 63.1696711889017 64.4643028070318 63.4648675337535
2016-03-01 63.1470468035177 64.4421826508085 63.3582131112335
2016-04-01 63.3020493311094 64.7230470654712 63.8935786783414
2016-05-01 63.3595818442502 64.845336085604 64.1416342821933
2016-06-01 63.3460493544401 64.8413224845367 64.2236566487613
2016-07-01 63.4913102304997 64.8946335817682 64.2991684433393
2016-08-01 63.4350738138219 64.8306210337505 64.2370453035637
2016-09-01 63.522685513856 64.9788217581042 64.2562757026617
2016-10-01 63.6930786971312 65.0674624884233 64.2040317031444
2016-11-01 63.6213698554351 65.1324552021578 64.2445918605194
2016-12-01 63.7335837031305 65.2763901820774 64.4418331440811
2017-01-01 63.7533868140937 65.3278091849325 64.5453765568727
2017-02-01 63.6788674662936 65.0294614321489 64.1927733846033
2017-03-01 63.6201563821751 64.8403287241818 63.6083552107934
2017-04-01 63.7272763223418 65.1752103060559 64.3373712052973
2017-05-01 63.6245582298734 65.1696311267336 64.4303381186764
2017-06-01 63.637758404019 65.1592800820749 64.388571693934
2017-07-01 63.6132979057947 65.0402250194849 64.5034913742742
2017-08-01 63.4986028494014 64.9013064091368 64.1177701164032
2017-09-01 63.5680941304253 64.8839038722432 64.1018889599657
2017-10-01 63.6985181701779 65.0860648583033 64.1889345067257
2017-11-01 63.8379306984622 65.2851800787941 64.392616272839
2017-12-01 63.8469913261394 65.4519972551888 64.674253689603
2018-01-01 63.9011736894378 65.5765840887172 64.6766531084462
2018-02-01 63.932547363881 65.2985477374276 64.4417481235598
2018-03-01 63.8049760213143 65.0832260496314 63.7696666116104
2018-04-01 63.9795187751396 65.3336670107419 64.3266927840415
2018-05-01 63.8599903590572 65.4527291421197 64.587984324744
2018-06-01 63.8282033831968 65.4950917196252 64.7133242971651
2018-07-01 64.0053211709499 65.5397333856537 64.7567008496758
2018-08-01 63.8323387462529 65.4099651546341 64.5389614928983
2018-09-01 63.9974823947787 65.582123057008 64.5653291821204
2018-10-01 63.948206433994 65.6327908467785 64.6039965781433
2018-11-01 64.1034282312783 65.6994706049867 64.6991675656007
2018-12-01 64.1804932165622 65.9828217094395 65.0798838433128
2019-01-01 64.165519182164 66.0237004854473 65.2380499014158
2019-02-01 64.1991518448244 66.0006586350524 65.1325774409287
2019-03-01 64.1525535990178 65.7250182207249 64.565984504617
2019-04-01 64.3037584866513 65.9851565885696 65.1661830622642
2019-05-01 64.0816367305902 65.9479476019967 65.2502969726503
2019-06-01 64.1590472093743 66.1283722292327 65.5412381306664
2019-07-01 64.2751546988289 66.1694351087881 65.5835645905273
2019-08-01 64.1864985871126 66.0506915800099 65.3898799023866
2019-09-01 64.1962009602915 66.1620664869295 65.4575559176533
2019-10-01 64.281391009307 66.2058267533142 65.5353170977597
2019-11-01 64.4278922803351 66.3501149469063 65.7015130718909
2019-12-01 64.4311320994505 66.4524274139313 65.7924418140562
2020-01-01 64.2578888533433 66.3437888745875 65.7280097721011
2020-02-01 64.2512243448576 66.2272167995238 65.4315641759074
2020-03-01 64.427603825207 66.1613794250706 65.1218817613481
2020-04-01 65.8197680749682 67.1664079309158 66.0054544814801
2020-05-01 65.4941604105495 66.9682653186075 65.8764897183769
2020-06-01 65.037604529322 66.7071413803397 65.7777907110211
2020-07-01 64.682461310685 66.4988727146703 65.9187411110774
2020-08-01 64.6915591626505 66.6891904298516 66.1379738142649
2020-09-01 64.9588066543334 66.9514125760982 66.3726082690867
2020-10-01 65.1438814507027 67.1412537927076 66.6607383055831
2020-11-01 65.2628748991468 67.3004551114159 66.7645600450468
2020-12-01 65.2631604833186 67.3302103420457 66.8527999071819
2021-01-01 65.3156305851648 67.3336512020283 66.8010329088523
2021-02-01 65.3813039727903 67.3263656820884 66.7358602518152
2021-03-01 65.2903647697834 67.1658226186733 66.2771687098444
2021-04-01 65.405047591109 67.1039317579131 66.3402643588893
2021-05-01 65.6645452345868 67.5410518313529 66.9097437262937
2021-06-01 65.9435938063539 67.8907177334917 67.1698396231184
2021-07-01 66.2707740603246 68.2315541458234 67.4973653267581
2021-08-01 66.5063343739444 68.3759349497838 67.7392157837235
2021-09-01 66.7604087912444 68.6920180418099 68.0061397883231
2021-10-01 66.9275744091965 68.8299369231903 68.0320944132043
2021-11-01 66.9264570599047 68.8552988968561 67.9711770931672
2021-12-01 67.1387199636337 69.0049735679036 68.1833271124492
2022-01-01 67.3232786074061 69.0350884788712 68.2109716202225
2022-02-01 67.5552711713059 69.1950605874076 68.2817820726522
2022-03-01 67.7225039561351 69.1714468740479 67.9921211290097
2022-04-01 67.9158352568633 69.4605884260249 68.48196638183
2022-05-01 68.1240554199075 69.6417917498044 68.7258599748727
2022-06-01 68.1477459128411 69.7145753128863 68.6963520620499
2022-07-01 68.1326137508706 69.72441444335 68.7564325818168
2022-08-01 67.9981306574845 69.535914656496 68.6992325451248
2022-09-01 67.9737352761298 69.5786536225661 68.6278318131467
2022-10-01 67.9936854269759 69.6179438255321 68.7305134034534
2022-11-01 67.8574927013209 69.5049685501134 68.5858878610119
2022-12-01 67.6767938917241 69.4596188058474 68.6815072883791
2023-01-01 67.4485781388606 69.2629758090446 68.4744077994139
2023-02-01 67.3261009926428 69.0960975117401 68.1186876997365
2023-03-01 67.1449919395708 68.7597985361521 67.7709251437601
2023-04-01 67.2326579665362 68.9843819897545 68.2759819893259
2023-05-01 67.1330018687817 69.0653559284557 68.4764713830649
2023-06-01 67.2776868811883 69.1510252897049 68.5175236946551
2023-07-01 67.541583902116 69.3596434652198 68.749782518116
2023-08-01 67.3748205357035 69.249276383685 68.6075317967559
2023-09-01 67.3181072180904 69.2968509927715 68.5688975316562
2023-10-01 67.1537726490301 69.174085607836 68.5453921996106
2023-11-01 67.2280371582716 69.1385873982116 68.5891316466455
2023-12-01 67.0472513043637 69.2109940174624 68.7555032315907
2024-01-01 66.9738073040691 69.175463130829 68.8998131118071
2024-02-01 66.7950189366186 69.1170108345121 68.5223953988061
2024-03-01 66.8840050812384 68.8425034050441 68.2273944556747
2024-04-01 66.871326848354 68.9971097174368 68.4368908538979
2024-05-01 66.8271102463513 69.0378199611063 68.5692434729983
2024-06-01 66.6253074220125 68.919799397961 68.5707280445266
2024-07-01 66.6000375354325 68.8618359599888 68.4993570085009
2024-08-01 66.5055112775506 68.8117158131607 68.514010625548
2024-09-01 66.5425063418372 68.8124129686369 68.4389783322726
2024-10-01 66.4669388902567 68.7452734407168 68.4335646175567
2024-11-01 66.5742573117222 68.7820815850137 68.6066279231852

Note: The data are seasonally adjusted. Loans are for used auto vehicles only. Subprime are those with a VantageScore less than 601; near prime are from 601 to 660; prime are greater than 660.

Source: Experian Velocity.

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Figure 2.16. Auto loan delinquencies have been above normal levels

This is a line chart titled "Auto loan delinquencies have been above normal levels". The x-axis measures time and ranges from 2000 to 2024. The data are quarterly. The y-axis ranges from 1 to 5 percent. There is one variable plotted. The series is labeled "Delinquent" and represented by a black line. It begins around 3 percent and fluctuates within 2-4 percent for the next few years. It increases to around 5 percent in 2008:Q4, but then slowly decreases and hovers around 3 percent through 2019:Q1. The data decreases to around 2 percent in 2021:Q2 before rising to around 3.8 percent in 2024:Q4.

Note: Delinquent includes loans reported to the credit bureau as at least 30 days past due. The data for auto loans are reported semiannually by the Risk Assessment, Data Analysis, and Research Data Warehouse until 2017, after which they are reported quarterly. The data are seasonally adjusted.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax.

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Figure 2.17. Inflation-adjusted credit card balances for all risk segments trended higher

This is a line chart titled "Inflation-adjusted credit card balances for all risk segments trended higher". The x-axis measures time and ranges from 1999 to 2024. The data are quarterly. The y-axis ranges from 0 to 700 billions of dollars (real). There are three variables plotted on the chart. The first variable is labeled "Prime" and is designated by a black line. It ranges from around 250 to 620 billion dollars. The series started at around 230 billion dollars in 1999 and increased to nearly 550 billion dollars in 2009. There is a slight decline from 2009 until balances were close just under 450 billion in 2012. From 2012 onwards, the series increased with fluctuations, reaching nearly 550 billion dollars at the end of 2019. It dropped to 458 in 2021:Q1 before increasing to a high of 620 billion dollars in 2024:Q4. The second variable is labeled "Near prime", is represented by a blue line, and ranges from around 250 to 450 billion dollars. Starting around 400 billion dollars in 1999, the series increased to around 470 billion dollars in 2002 to 2003. Near prime balances decrease to around 410 billion dollars in 2005 and remains mostly flat until 2008 before decreasing to around 290 billion dollars in 2011. The level has risen slowly since then, reaching about 350 billion dollars in 2019. It decreased to around 270 billion dollars in 2021:Q1, then rose to 353 billion dollars in 2024:Q4. The third variable is labeled "Subprime", is designated by a red line, and ranges from around 125 to 310 billion dollars. It starts at around 230 billion dollars in 1999 and increases until reaching a peak at around 310 billion dollars in 2002. It decreases to around 230 billion dollars in 2005 before beginning to increase with fluctuations to around 300 billion dollars in 2008. It decreases to around 140 billion dollars in 2013 before slowly climbing again, reaching around 185 billion dollars in 2019:Q4. It decreased through 2021 and then increases to end at 239 billion dollars in 2024:Q4.

Note: Subprime are borrowers with an Equifax Risk Score less than 620; near prime are from 620 to 719; prime are greater than 719. Scores are measured contemporaneously. The data are converted to constant 2024 dollars using the consumer price index.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax; consumer price index, Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics.

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Figure 2.18. Credit card delinquencies remained somewhat above their pre-pandemic levels

This is a line chart titled "Credit card delinquencies remained somewhat above their pre-pandemic levels". The x-axis measures time and ranges from 2000 to 2024. The data are quarterly. The y-axis ranges from 0 to 8 percent, measuring delinquency rates on credit cards. There is one variable plotted, denoted by a black line. It ranges from just under 2 to about 7 percent. The series begins at 4 percent in 2000, rises to 6 percent through 2003, then falls just under 4 percent in 2005:Q4. The series then stays around 4 percent until 2008 when it slowly increases to 5 percent, then jumps to the series maximum of about 7 percent in 2009:Q1. The series then slowly falls to about 2 percent in 2015, then begins increasing in 2016:Q4 and reaches about 3 percent in 2020. Then, the series decreases to just under 2 percent in 2021 before it increases to about 4.0 percent when the series ends in 2024:Q4.

Note: Delinquency measures the fraction of balances that are at least 30 days past due, excluding severe derogatory loans, which are delinquent and have been charged off, foreclosed, or repossessed by the lender. The data are seasonally adjusted.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax.

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Figure 3.1. Banks’ average risk-based capital ratios were near or above previous peaks

This is a line chart titled "Banks’ average risk-based capital ratios were near or above previous peaks". The x-axis measures time and ranges from 2001 to 2024. The data are quarterly. The y-axis ranges from 0 to 14 percent of risk-weighted assets. There are three variables plotted on the chart. The first series is labeled "G-SIBs". This series is designated by a red line and ranges from about 5 to 13 percent. The variable begins around 7.2 percent and remains around there until a dip from 2007 to 2009, falling to around 4.9 percent at the end of 2008. The variable gradually increases with a peak in 2014 at 12.5 percent. The variable remains around this value and ends at 13.2 in 2024:Q4. The second series is labeled "Large non-GSIBs" and is designated by a blue line. The variable ranges from 5 to 12 percent and begins around 7 percent. The variable follows a similar curve to the first with a dip at the end of 2008 to 5.5 percent and gradual increase to 12.8 in 2022. The variable has remained around there and ends at 12.6 in 2024:Q4. The third series is labeled "Other BHCs" and is designated by a black line. It ranges from about 6 to 13 percent. The variable begins around 8 percent and also follows a similar pattern to the first two series. The variable dips in mid-2009 to about 6.6 percent and gradually increases to 12.7 in 2021. The series ends at 13.4 in 2024:Q4

Note: The sample consists of domestic bank holding companies (BHCs) and intermediate holding companies (IHCs) with a substantial U.S. commercial banking presence. G-SIBs are global systemically important banks. Large non–G-SIBs are BHCs and IHCs with greater than $100 billion in total assets that are not G-SIBs. Before 2014:Q1 (advanced-approaches BHCs) or before 2015:Q1 (non-advanced-approaches BHCs), the numerator of the common equity Tier 1 ratio is Tier 1 common capital. Afterward, the numerator is common equity Tier 1 capital. The denominator is risk-weighted assets. The shaded bars with top caps indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: March 2001–November 2001, December 2007–June 2009, and February 2020–April 2020. The data are seasonally adjusted by Federal Reserve Board staff.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Form FR Y-9C, Consolidated Financial Statements for Holding Companies.

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Figure 3.2. Banks kept healthy net interest margins

This is a line chart titled "Banks kept healthy net interest margins". The x-axis measures time and ranges from 2014 to 2024. The data are quarterly. The y-axis ranges from 0 to 7 percent. There are two variables plotted on the chart. The first series is labeled "Average interest rate on interest-earning assets". This series is designated by a black line and ranges from about 3 to 6 percent. The variable begins around 3.5 percent and has a gradual increase to about 4.5 percent in the middle of 2019. There is a decline in 2020 and the series falls below 3 percent in 2021 and early 2022 before a sharp increase back to about 6 percent in 2024:Q4. The second series, labeled "Average interest expense rate on liabilities", is designated by a blue line and ranges from just above 0 to 3 percent. This variable begins at about 0.5 and increases slowly to 1.3 percent, where it stays through 2019. In 2020, it decreases to below 0.5 percent through 2021:Q4 before rising to its highest value of around 3 percent in 2024:Q4.

Note: Average interest rate on interest-earning assets is total interest income divided by total interest-earning assets. Average interest expense rate on liabilities is total interest expense divided by total liabilities. The shaded bar with a top cap indicates a period of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: February 2020–April 2020.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Form FR Y-9C, Consolidated Financial Statements for Holding Companies.

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Figure 3.3. The fair value losses of banks’ securities portfolios remained sizable

This is a stacked bar chart titled "The fair value losses of banks’ securities portfolios remained sizable". The x-axis measures time and ranges from 2017 to 2024. The data are quarterly. The y-axis ranges from -800 to 200 billion dollars. Two variables are shown on the chart. The first variable is labeled "Available-for-sale securities" (AFS) and is represented by dark blue bars which range from about -$320 to just under $100 billion. The second variable is labeled "Held-to-maturity securities" (HTM) and is represented by beige bars which range in magnitude from about -$390 to just over $40 billion in magnitude. The bars for each series are roughly the same size as the other in each period, with neither ever becoming more than about twice as big as the other. The two series collectively hover within a range of about -100 to 150 billion dollars until 2022:Q1, when both series see a pronounced drop to about a combined -300 billion dollars. They decline further to almost -700 billion in aggregate in 2022:Q3, then recover to about -500 billion in 2023:Q1. They decline again in 2023:Q3 to about -700 billion again and end the year in 2023:Q4 with an increase to about -475 billion, but slightly decline to -500 by the end of 2024:Q2. Through 2024:Q4, there's a very slight increase to about -480 billion with AFS accounting for about -180 billion and HTM accounting for about -300 billion.

Note: The figure plots the difference between the fair and amortized cost values of the securities. The sample consists of all BHCs and commercial banks. Source: Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council, Call Report Form FFIEC 031, Consolidated Reports of Condition and Income (Call Report); Federal Reserve Board, Form FR Y-9C, Consolidated Financial Statements for Holding Companies.

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Figure 3.4. The ratio of tangible common equity to tangible assets increased, on net, for banks of all categories in the second half of 2024

Percent of tangible assets

Date G-SIBs Large non–G-SIBs Other BHCs
1985-03-31 4.7237088709188 4.86816676884551 6.36501485883
1985-06-30 4.59125345770151 4.66557608910949 6.35101032394561
1985-09-30 4.79523451561782 4.56645117118664 6.36296833278732
1985-12-31 4.95967608741877 4.42465352943916 6.34589802025321
1986-03-31 4.93146188226754 4.53829125253964 6.43207174392969
1986-06-30 5.07004072298375 4.41820210006349 6.36911003643551
1986-09-30 5.27967283408765 4.58405019324022 6.38402144224845
1986-12-31 4.99029187639708 5.1443088172347 6.17242289042722
1987-03-31 5.05441602182307 6.10610818618641 6.30040029292123
1987-06-30 4.48201560368126 4.6777856057131 5.92832773403827
1987-09-30 4.30531450516138 4.86927153558545 6.01527252682781
1987-12-31 4.49699357783084 4.85719565129469 6.00119204027443
1988-03-31 4.54001116017465 5.1457407665029 5.96782189992689
1988-06-30 4.75340541154763 5.13548259614364 6.02125307240207
1988-09-30 4.4821089551021 5.12452784879019 6.12430919905809
1988-12-31 5.09656228088211 5.35894963233289 6.22723322967146
1989-03-31 5.08673220561322 5.34372221591523 6.30391349135823
1989-06-30 5.23945230260606 5.37036589165347 6.31704695945988
1989-09-30 4.95927441855786 5.19078075634466 6.20579708164454
1989-12-31 4.84010345687516 4.63677368830241 6.19945262636667
1990-03-31 4.93437274031224 4.67131951925857 6.28018184273114
1990-06-30 4.96534860846624 4.83611874433068 6.26453431622769
1990-09-30 4.82584433686173 4.89225965092502 6.25057805072617
1990-12-31 4.90428514134216 5.1508435399062 6.29491901844609
1991-03-31 5.06667765113433 5.28918532645901 6.4204906500366
1991-06-30 4.85324956274166 5.29597068535265 6.47596623680173
1991-09-30 4.81141178199701 4.83573405317192 6.51026332026719
1991-12-31 5.01136917248809 4.81250741360181 6.6677045189243
1992-03-31 5.47309079030955 4.79001109544931 6.7866099779648
1992-06-30 5.60634551117032 4.81517089950288 7.11735815189278
1992-09-30 5.68863165211333 5.05537105017421 7.23358913395177
1992-12-31 5.79370335704894 5.8226995333387 7.38692147697106
1993-03-31 6.00090930612608 6.15716499246164 7.57230321824525
1993-06-30 6.16893919764784 6.10494060715054 7.72129402919928
1993-09-30 6.3330020582721 6.22795144290338 7.73635096464744
1993-12-31 6.45876883455897 6.48469090576703 7.85376550331968
1994-03-31 5.95721574173736 5.76071119432333 7.79086114994208
1994-06-30 6.05870973027227 5.85337890299952 7.70096842898968
1994-09-30 5.85485701124102 6.12238773695335 7.72754917128978
1994-12-31 5.49608753971058 6.22914697692389 7.61953506087363
1995-03-31 5.30748211905843 5.89634578002482 7.74344216396176
1995-06-30 5.52538727362049 6.25347819813215 7.80862047685951
1995-09-30 5.57403951758764 6.27185878369863 7.86865637715974
1995-12-31 5.654076616403 6.25424820822249 7.94470075432385
1996-03-31 5.92437356439526 6.33034511362746 7.95225681698753
1996-06-30 5.7787559270633 6.29431538237054 7.8146454998923
1996-09-30 5.97686384003032 6.19654200700447 7.75911966467043
1996-12-31 5.77551540290233 6.06218495829875 7.77990275499111
1997-03-31 5.40807590724954 6.05946147029423 7.81701959853726
1997-06-30 5.32094108278849 5.91645447034198 7.72437129183676
1997-09-30 5.40306157004381 5.82959376500008 7.76370928986699
1997-12-31 5.32783199792995 5.74304305594964 7.83043708318629
1998-03-31 5.414585831434 5.64426374162887 7.83305256551701
1998-06-30 5.772072433707 5.6533239593523 7.86284001317225
1998-09-30 5.93929326706571 5.51508030963937 7.82455477796893
1998-12-31 5.68564645120293 5.45559957787669 7.78495335613792
1999-03-31 5.77052812667777 5.69534528913095 7.71224627339439
1999-06-30 5.70790929095797 5.60785316484851 7.61215126197701
1999-09-30 5.77067681364251 5.55426003369946 7.52271374231034
1999-12-31 5.62390841378944 5.27774095228668 7.38546297547691
2000-03-31 5.67913101697044 5.2608520307366 7.30564210860703
2000-06-30 5.42713665351368 5.13031017167969 7.36948289032578
2000-09-30 5.52325537138311 5.41635097369273 7.49129857481437
2000-12-31 5.53887301599062 5.82474244152152 7.7342394117548
2001-03-31 4.88606502141708 5.72549425941033 7.55546485771149
2001-06-30 4.82321492352177 5.12022202269264 7.71211221649216
2001-09-30 4.46318349150256 5.03394865364554 7.90614959630236
2001-12-31 4.62513244786752 4.72908863284306 7.78226113231014
2002-03-31 4.55824754501541 4.92815339894675 7.79889524196733
2002-06-30 4.67825847202571 5.10964780317402 7.93662453500364
2002-09-30 4.84366476483573 5.34508808139388 7.96074625312494
2002-12-31 4.79803714164231 5.3637627338541 7.98948247493302
2003-03-31 4.72398322621056 5.43159622804864 7.92745910762136
2003-06-30 4.77270374460117 5.34487025607336 7.75826821349672
2003-09-30 4.71501303165754 5.26442162902046 7.72084280634592
2003-12-31 4.53825717358464 5.22558675430209 7.76819297489458
2004-03-31 4.50529041304721 5.38283594322082 7.96533978400774
2004-06-30 4.03764036048786 4.76807504065708 7.57771621836951
2004-09-30 4.30482244014643 4.43614795403547 7.97464551965142
2004-12-31 4.41532320152134 4.18543629133121 8.17508870361277
2005-03-31 4.21817029153203 3.89272491337341 7.96279634895095
2005-06-30 4.33169902692178 4.36856776081361 8.129794882458
2005-09-30 4.29552238784801 4.00345799984981 8.07091704712861
2005-12-31 4.22919132410551 4.08338332610105 7.96448741268667
2006-03-31 4.03655438363319 3.77407223193578 7.84192092364949
2006-06-30 3.88060024868593 3.69821031837893 7.80898915134335
2006-09-30 4.06897402742052 3.90178402059117 8.04667776402788
2006-12-31 4.01169620829711 4.2452059748518 8.036926081936
2007-03-31 3.80455376694069 4.23427087102785 7.97357278825812
2007-06-30 3.51144348458793 4.14975192637452 7.90066461970267
2007-09-30 3.38824027580952 4.23206473576045 7.91896052973092
2007-12-31 3.13549709320522 3.91575193289302 7.93627647361457
2008-03-31 2.91411268982261 3.70327389275733 7.92749483458403
2008-06-30 2.8592787678037 3.71815244858824 7.78179707672401
2008-09-30 2.24332602842351 3.49930545524424 7.606571095922
2008-12-31 2.27310315928882 3.59720419360704 7.52128566321195
2009-03-31 2.67933520981887 4.04310261424873 7.52661298353964
2009-06-30 3.36188539437184 4.64124489080282 7.59067435700713
2009-09-30 4.30843170047897 4.80852047387828 7.89722317403473
2009-12-31 4.69336593690793 4.73785446108179 8.05433801381093
2010-03-31 4.7639103444209 4.82870134204767 8.30616327861644
2010-06-30 5.21045490067188 5.40936008051247 8.6243941564205
2010-09-30 5.46843083972949 5.63395018630418 8.81307032659001
2010-12-31 5.59684825937364 6.36551320613124 8.76131005574771
2011-03-31 5.69597338582748 6.68580070207506 8.92559684276298
2011-06-30 5.84811398071342 6.94421089087725 9.16309644302272
2011-09-30 6.05388503905373 7.231294202028 9.28918219974394
2011-12-31 6.28922545175536 7.15111022993863 9.43382620713807
2012-03-31 6.35208307079801 7.32890892101798 9.47666932591145
2012-06-30 6.57100876096896 7.42737691110695 9.650004639188
2012-09-30 6.71459239860791 7.57073062909844 9.69628984382645
2012-12-31 6.70852374349484 7.52005290601296 9.56818326257078
2013-03-31 6.78531698956402 7.85680618833903 9.70916066365222
2013-06-30 6.77324143681927 7.79618860275159 9.57568307861411
2013-09-30 6.80179682275397 7.91050976933615 9.59036911338881
2013-12-31 6.92711934007666 7.98096345555212 9.6978722532142
2014-03-31 6.98870974686852 8.18101695567381 9.7276905437892
2014-06-30 7.08530749919026 8.32107045214183 9.88432679351057
2014-09-30 7.18419700408077 8.33080588595567 9.68248527848146
2014-12-31 7.2120544016271 8.2503278849215 9.7067758419597
2015-03-31 7.29572249496211 8.45475700959907 9.72175755740955
2015-06-30 7.45608697217242 8.34178043001445 9.73210923340958
2015-09-30 7.63917574930302 8.55071678567086 9.73048911145198
2015-12-31 7.7727819949132 8.34412290471215 9.7421649703335
2016-03-31 7.74309580695799 8.52023621055312 9.78440030601233
2016-06-30 7.76489425051964 8.56444596541119 9.80677434562955
2016-09-30 7.77272553923029 8.34222336374019 9.76330022965079
2016-12-31 7.71780747261041 8.18569022215512 9.58162134586437
2017-03-31 7.64431962433969 8.31337710398259 9.70495303313852
2017-06-30 7.7169206519714 8.27057408040315 9.79730675413844
2017-09-30 7.68603656324499 8.38524194664932 9.76842354301845
2017-12-31 7.36272223162835 8.20405857777413 9.69323593974628
2018-03-31 7.17475347761294 8.22545240786137 9.60458038486202
2018-06-30 7.29377177392645 8.28419978645872 9.63552946615742
2018-09-30 7.19967062894261 8.25166266180965 9.6464167975985
2018-12-31 7.22233261862194 8.2457745160188 9.78221605475501
2019-03-31 7.20822327126357 8.47217258605222 10.0073783131374
2019-06-30 7.21289142527361 8.63697038496417 10.1231039362651
2019-09-30 7.04144574252191 8.62823810748753 10.0615121872641
2019-12-31 7.00196194538865 8.42134866831597 10.1053162361864
2020-03-31 6.31113217781476 7.90596029364048 9.72440690761322
2020-06-30 6.24589317866425 7.91766657743177 9.16211163944089
2020-09-30 6.43160724786446 8.11646305872099 9.20777655501223
2020-12-31 6.37096620745956 8.14246939954141 9.32870846622525
2021-03-31 6.07564066257491 7.98395829189425 9.01308808590457
2021-06-30 6.15804651088797 7.98155775588599 9.16765864620097
2021-09-30 6.02088844643775 7.835781602968 9.17432757019734
2021-12-31 6.04408015409337 7.4818842436196 9.06404392171748
2022-03-31 5.62199716508929 6.8978778358128 8.34572107606056
2022-06-30 5.76385837997458 6.50079927271959 7.99273678655242
2022-09-30 5.83206151947804 5.98876490962436 7.5950838026826
2022-12-31 6.05620689941618 5.87992441294662 7.83692153335522
2023-03-31 6.06433581894906 6.09467624799838 8.01033997075437
2023-06-30 6.12169493495145 6.11736965430747 8.03046574197033
2023-09-30 6.19175491801793 6.08548604760648 7.919429791502
2023-12-31 6.25054338919766 6.48470570783261 8.51469606537817
2024-03-31 6.0893214587128 6.51625565423336 8.56546334026063
2024-06-30 6.21066830704279 6.88267646576888 8.66185393529206
2024-09-30 6.2663293807258 7.27248619957323 9.01147591526483
2024-12-31 6.41528153500577 7.19882321252402 8.96307456857987

Note: The sample consists of domestic bank holding companies (BHCs), intermediate holding companies (IHCs) with a substantial U.S. commercial banking presence, and commercial banks. G-SIBs are global systemically important banks. Large non–G-SIBs are BHCs and IHCs with greater than $100 billion in total assets that are not G-SIBs. Bank equity is total equity capital net of preferred equity and intangible assets. Bank assets are total assets net of intangible assets. The shaded bars with top caps indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: July 1990–March 1991, March 2001–November 2001, December 2007–June 2009, and February 2020–April 2020. The data are seasonally adjusted by Federal Reserve Board staff.

Source: For data through 1996, Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council, Call Report Form FFIEC 031, Consolidated Reports of Condition and Income (Call Report). For data from 1997 onward, Federal Reserve Board, Form FR Y-9C, Consolidated Financial Statements for Holding Companies; Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council, Call Report Form FFIEC 031, Consolidated Reports of Condition and Income (Call Report).

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Figure 3.5. The financial condition of firms with commercial and industrial bank loans has slightly deteriorated

This is a line chart titled "The financial condition of firms with commercial and industrial bank loans has slightly deteriorated". The x-axis measures time and ranges from 2013 to 2024. The data are quarterly. The y-axis ranges from 24 to 36 percent and shows debt as percentage of assets. There are two variables plotted. The first line, labeled "Non-publicly-traded firms", is designated by a blue line, and ranges from about 30 to 34 percent. This variable begins near 32 percentage points, dips to about 30 percent towards the end of 2013, rises slowly to 34 percentage points through 2019 before decreasing back down to 33 percentage points where it hovered through 2020. It decreased throughout 2021 but leveled off in 2022 at around 31 percentage points. In 2023, it spiked up to 32 in the second quarter before dropping back down to end just above 31 percent. In 2024, it continues to hover at 32 percentage points, through the end of 2024:Q4. The second line, labeled "Publicly traded firms", is designated by a black line and ranges from about 24 to 31 percent. This variable begins at about 25 percentage points and increases steadily to 31 percentage points in 2020. Then, it steadily decreases to below 30 percent through 2024:Q4, ending at 29 percent.

Note: The figure shows the weighted median leverage of nonfinancial firms that borrow using commercial and industrial loans from the 23 banks that have filed in every quarter since 2013:Q1. Leverage is measured as the ratio of the book value of total debt to the book value of total assets of the borrower, as reported by the lender, and the median is weighted by committed amounts.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Form FR Y-14Q (Schedule H.1), Capital Assessments and Stress Testing.

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Figure 3.6. Credit standards for commercial and industrial loans were little changed in the second half of 2024

This is a line chart titled "Credit standards for commercial and industrial loans were little changed in the second half of 2024". The x-axis measures time and ranges from 1997 to 2024. The data are quarterly. The y-axis ranges from -100 to 100 and the units are net percentages of banks reporting tightening lending standards. The data begin in 1997:Q1 and end in 2024:Q4. Data points above zero to 100 are labeled "Tightening" and data points below zero to -100 are labeled "Easing". There is one variable charted on the plot. The series is designated by a black line. The series begins around zero. In 2000:Q4, the series spikes to almost 80 percent, and remains elevated during the recession period in 2001. This falls to almost -60 percent in 2004 and then increases but remains negative until 2007. The series then spikes again during 2008, reaching a maximum of over 80 percent. The series then bounces between -20 percent and 20 percent between 2009 and 2019, before spiking again in early 2020 to roughly 70 percent. The series then falls to roughly -50 percent in 2021:Q2 before rising again to roughly 30 percent through 2023:Q2. The series sharply drops in the end of 2023, ending at about 4 percent in 2023:Q4. The series falls back to about 1 percent in 2024:Q4. There is also a horizontal line marked at zero.

Note: Banks' responses are weighted by their commercial and industrial loan market shares. Survey respondents to the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices are asked about the changes over the quarter. Results are shown for loans to large and medium-sized firms. The shaded bars with top caps indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: March 2001–November 2001, December 2007–June 2009, and February 2020–April 2020.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

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Figure 3.7. Leverage at broker-dealers remained near historical lows

Ratio of assets to equity

Date Calculated Leverage
1995-03-31 30.5982069909687
1995-06-30 30.715053408215
1995-09-30 31.3075187485227
1995-12-31 31.8437861119866
1996-03-31 33.1163299730913
1996-06-30 33.1013331739105
1996-09-30 33.3441693368288
1996-12-31 33.8799653746273
1997-03-31 35.2828507392546
1997-06-30 35.2869330076762
1997-09-30 35.498408212325
1997-12-31 32.9736871252037
1998-03-31 35.5055261963666
1998-06-30 35.0070818698421
1998-09-30 35.0660341830823
1998-12-31 30.4295790511052
1999-03-31 30.9114567834438
1999-06-30 29.3661582531347
1999-09-30 28.4326362993834
1999-12-31 28.557997841401
2000-03-31 29.8598214667065
2000-06-30 28.8894217207334
2000-09-30 28.5148996842856
2000-12-31 28.2648060796646
2001-03-31 28.5606199261993
2001-06-30 30.0320462611084
2001-09-30 31.4661945806851
2001-12-31 31.338968071904
2002-03-31 31.6577101403855
2002-06-30 31.2599437339207
2002-09-30 31.7889909984558
2002-12-31 30.6285592336147
2003-03-31 32.0302453053945
2003-06-30 34.7878365208373
2003-09-30 32.9734923391743
2003-12-31 33.6675097743329
2004-03-31 35.5833439029959
2004-06-30 37.7700967206065
2004-09-30 38.5887403329401
2004-12-31 39.2777396924885
2005-03-31 41.0738134100422
2005-06-30 41.4384392576605
2005-09-30 41.9749640265142
2005-12-31 39.880072868668
2006-03-31 40.503497005644
2006-06-30 40.6512138000326
2006-09-30 42.2873796143481
2006-12-31 43.0107629130303
2007-03-31 45.2778193125806
2007-06-30 46.8994959572924
2007-09-30 46.0204176455575
2007-12-31 46.2983034482759
2008-03-31 47.89183041899
2008-06-30 41.8661248648791
2008-09-30 43.2122746457033
2008-12-31 30.7077441601937
2009-03-31 28.3215972520395
2009-06-30 24.8998622255598
2009-09-30 24.9618375682385
2009-12-31 23.5052722711834
2010-03-31 24.5069614762614
2010-06-30 24.0433659395688
2010-09-30 24.3100066525033
2010-12-31 23.5247459227071
2011-03-31 24.2946419130198
2011-06-30 24.440313072373
2011-09-30 24.5657173756309
2011-12-31 24.6372270220987
2012-03-31 24.5318749709241
2012-06-30 24.4307914783732
2012-09-30 23.8525335546291
2012-12-31 23.4598855351307
2013-03-31 22.8428439449133
2013-06-30 22.1486328871893
2013-09-30 21.8371631014628
2013-12-31 21.097681616223
2014-03-31 21.1277118963169
2014-06-30 21.3475737106516
2014-09-30 20.7180067422846
2014-12-31 19.8169499480063
2015-03-31 19.7323566984349
2015-06-30 19.3348381307379
2015-09-30 18.8285458657231
2015-12-31 18.1493925866296
2016-03-31 18.1237576000291
2016-06-30 18.3046870769175
2016-09-30 18.035854625629
2016-12-31 17.6136082150251
2017-03-31 17.7695777550781
2017-06-30 18.307554150652
2017-09-30 17.4100389829624
2017-12-31 17.1500899174335
2018-03-31 17.2055763771559
2018-06-30 18.0641742412777
2018-09-30 17.9034846949206
2018-12-31 18.1021874008148
2019-03-31 17.9141401902138
2019-06-30 17.8151545552476
2019-09-30 17.7799223151373
2019-12-31 16.8651391545337
2020-03-31 17.2645675852628
2020-06-30 16.2564523706339
2020-09-30 16.5385023470571
2020-12-31 16.6195957937861
2021-03-31 16.582882045479
2021-06-30 16.2245377135745
2021-09-30 16.2545560469413
2021-12-31 15.7850315685682
2022-03-31 17.6559734587943
2022-06-30 17.2151009687427
2022-09-30 16.9552319201328
2022-12-31 15.9521612582599
2023-03-31 16.9887092251612
2023-06-30 16.9454259925785
2023-09-30 16.6431064813536
2023-12-31 17.081807501296
2024-03-31 17.6268789319503
2024-06-30 17.6032710002968
2024-09-30 17.9807580977055
2024-12-31 16.5456570897438

Note: Leverage is calculated by dividing total assets by equity.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release Z.1, "Financial Accounts of the United States."

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Figure 3.8. Trading profits in the second half of 2024 were within the range of the past 5 years

This is a line chart titled "Trading profits in the second half of 2024 were within the range of the past 5 years". The x-axis measures time and ranges from 2018 to 2024. The data are monthly. The y-axis ranges from 0 to 1000, and the units are in millions of dollars. There is one variable charted on the plot. The series is designated by a black line and ranges from about 125 to nearly 900 million dollars. This variable begins just under 600 million dollars and drops to about 125 million towards the end of 2018. It rises sharply to nearly 900 million dollars in early 2020, then decreases back down to around 375 million at the end of 2020 before spiking back up near 900 million dollars in early 2021. It decreases throughout 2021 to 277 million in December 2021, then spiked to 700 million dollars in January 2022. It declined throughout 2022 to about 270 million in December but saw another beginning-of-year spike to 700 million in January 2023. The series declined throughout 2023, with a particularly sharp decline occurring from a value of about 400 million in November 2023 to a value of about 200 million in December 2023. The series experienced a sharp incline to a value of about 650 million in January 2024 but declined again to about 500 million in June 2024. By the end of December 2024, the series declined further to about 350 million.

Note: The sample includes all trading desks of bank holding companies subject to the Volcker rule reporting requirement.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Reporting, Recordkeeping, and Disclosure Requirements Associated with Regulation VV (Proprietary Trading and Certain Interests in and Relationships with Covered Funds, 12 C.F.R. pt. 248).

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Figure 3.9. The distribution of the sources of broker-dealer trading profits was in line with recent averages

This is a stacked line chart titled "The distribution of the sources of broker-dealer trading profits was in line with recent averages". The x-axis measures time and ranges from 2018 to 2024. The data are monthly. The y-axis measures percent and ranges from 0 to 100. There are 3 variables charted on the plot, which represent the total share of trading profits by trading desks. The first variable, "Equity," is designated by red shading. This variable remains steady at around 35 percent except for a spike at the end of 2018 to about 50 percent and a dip in the beginning of 2020 to about 20 percent. Towards the end of 2023, the series increased at about 40 percent, and then decreased slightly down to about 35 percent by December 2024. The second variable, "Fixed income, rates, and credit," is designated by blue shading. This variable remains steady around 40 percent except for decreases at the end of 2018 and in early- to mid-2022. The series drops to about 20 percent in December 2023, sharply increased to about 45 percent in January 2024 before dropping back down to about 30 percent in June, and continues to over at 30 percent in December. The third variable, "Other," is designated by beige shading. This variable increases from about 25 percent in 2018 to its peak in mid-2022 at about 50 percent before declining to about 30 percent through December 2024.

Note: The sample includes all trading desks of bank holding companies subject to the Volcker rule reporting requirement. The "other" category comprises desks trading in municipal securities, foreign exchange, and commodities, as well as any unclassified desks. The key identifies series in order from top to bottom.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Reporting, Recordkeeping, and Disclosure Requirements Associated with Regulation VV (Proprietary Trading and Certain Interests in and Relationships with Covered Funds, 12 C.F.R. pt. 248).

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Figure 3.10. Leverage at life insurers was around the 85th percentile of its historical distribution

Ratio of assets to equity

Date Life Property and Casualty
2001 Q1 8.36031592904979 5.40366999054728
2001 Q2 8.82585020638107 5.50412551164979
2001 Q3 9.44648974468406 6.22182224835869
2001 Q4 10.0257613115708 6.37394498076952
2002 Q1 9.63267975864237 6.24076941311445
2002 Q2 9.83256013883607 6.32269224424177
2002 Q3 10.1421354633282 6.41022916044875
2002 Q4 10.7948494380913 6.68349138015935
2003 Q1 11.0444036093948 6.7833902086454
2003 Q2 11.1563035459124 6.70037995131541
2003 Q3 11.000398484302 6.7172004844303
2003 Q4 10.9304909789063 6.70370328861639
2004 Q1 11.2863214243631 7.06100776622827
2004 Q2 11.3744519555969 6.75748631863471
2004 Q3 11.4750119231756 6.81601828574753
2004 Q4 11.6809163612236 6.82214880580096
2005 Q1 11.3044628735615 6.80749606424375
2005 Q2 10.6703534385654 6.6004657121062
2005 Q3 10.7843575460794 6.65878500411083
2005 Q4 10.8665204481768 6.48494682126386
2006 Q1 10.1954602542759 6.49722074825504
2006 Q2 10.0528558240603 6.39496711081614
2006 Q3 9.99070093624306 6.37042087836768
2006 Q4 9.94287031129512 6.2985630831529
2007 Q1 10.0314779911839 6.33680204150944
2007 Q2 9.8638303456092 6.32884725452754
2007 Q3 9.95656898579367 6.32929534189629
2007 Q4 9.73530665175089 6.08790498855485
2008 Q1 10.8557363070755 6.51333978154223
2008 Q2 10.7318206803053 6.4242324390778
2008 Q3 10.6872549094968 6.44578050059924
2008 Q4 10.8902998311562 5.96232123479701
2009 Q1 10.9093268151654 5.93918956547545
2009 Q2 10.0465788403065 5.60426130443896
2009 Q3 10.002488074213 5.57495421228905
2009 Q4 8.9444814617033 5.20132043363706
2010 Q1 9.24486321131444 5.16936699560405
2010 Q2 9.45005632526028 5.10355912993602
2010 Q3 9.73333363099908 5.18124847875797
2010 Q4 8.83655882827124 4.47788908728588
2011 Q1 9.73677012147704 4.62375003464552
2011 Q2 9.39889518893452 4.57562730425394
2011 Q3 9.47920180851116 4.41355795225886
2011 Q4 8.89180077429662 4.15631669274047
2012 Q1 8.85456724424128 4.14630955257915
2012 Q2 8.85769201088038 4.11755934675802
2012 Q3 9.19988171427961 4.16587552806339
2012 Q4 9.44261893518498 4.17857925771241
2013 Q1 9.2742684511091 4.10095338425342
2013 Q2 8.89309346916342 3.97245336982574
2013 Q3 8.67025335773517 3.92325820422153
2013 Q4 8.79813217242249 3.90056546307124
2014 Q1 8.54716656250108 3.87545478979077
2014 Q2 8.41872558950105 3.69426372107717
2014 Q3 8.3632004931639 3.64749726657816
2014 Q4 8.59546271991882 3.59439574531624
2015 Q1 8.42868478181508 3.55128755077522
2015 Q2 8.1572955022327 3.52714996532411
2015 Q3 8.37438136701651 3.47373609933601
2015 Q4 9.0388786741166 3.4696401622171
2016 Q1 9.52213703297625 3.56438923527121
2016 Q2 9.95370322118838 3.57875634540778
2016 Q3 10.0745398355137 3.56339050794092
2016 Q4 9.90261697983825 3.80688883619266
2017 Q1 10.2218312833215 3.59615546668862
2017 Q2 10.118382598691 3.60435770452915
2017 Q3 9.83861699649113 3.65321181836285
2017 Q4 10.0451538497148 3.74092613525481
2018 Q1 9.97016509227598 3.30270328589855
2018 Q2 9.81671602031617 2.96934699748403
2018 Q3 9.84661235233072 2.93472094305505
2018 Q4 9.93687320610675 3.03834780664888
2019 Q1 10.2037077144556 3.02014547919425
2019 Q2 10.3406942751515 3.01451114704615
2019 Q3 10.5471835563598 2.98613506696692
2019 Q4 10.5409647188869 2.89859858469055
2020 Q1 10.3468581293056 3.04236079126112
2020 Q2 11.5366784826833 3.13949319886997
2020 Q3 11.690842189919 3.11880743660849
2020 Q4 11.8006989909297 3.0366416650099
2021 Q1 11.126864673964 3.01244406616379
2021 Q2 11.1898154656827 2.9864565959719
2021 Q3 11.5559072547711 3.00193108573707
2021 Q4 11.3271336126059 2.84791826819638
2022 Q1 10.8215334658364 2.81760705723627
2022 Q2 9.85314601820248 2.88421990749108
2022 Q3 9.90663023332299 2.8867333850887
2022 Q4 10.0760307908456 2.85546991072237
2023 Q1 10.5090281230355 2.84762596074933
2023 Q2 10.3910717337736 2.79515322500489
2023 Q3 9.91784836016146 2.81260329386257
2023 Q4 10.9131833914757 2.77843209024343
2024 Q1 10.8689290589634 2.7534627206692
2024 Q2 10.7470809610161 2.33345210359727
2024 Q3 11.4582974085608 2.33875947785405
2024 Q4 11.0729734969448 2.26924100078274

Note: Ratio is calculated as (total assets – separate account assets)/(total capital – accumulated other comprehensive income) using generally accepted accounting principles. The largest 10 publicly traded life and property and casualty insurers are represented.

Source: Generally accepted accounting principles data from 10-Q and 10-K filings accessed via S&P Global, Capital IQ Pro.

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Figure 3.11. As of 2024:Q3, hedge funds’ leverage was at its highest level since data became available

This is a line chart titled "As of 2024:Q3, hedge funds’ leverage was at its highest level since data became available". The x-axis measures time and ranges from 2013 to 2024. The data are quarterly. The y-axis measures the leverage ratio and ranges from 0 to 10. The chart includes two variables. The first variable is titled "Mean gross leverage" and is represented with a black line. This series starts around 6.5 and decreases to about 5.7 in 2015:Q4. The series then increases to a ratio of about 8 in 2020:Q1, before decreasing and then hovering between 7 and 8 through 2022. The series increased in recent quarters and reached its maximum value of about 9 in 2024:Q3, the last period for which data is available. The second variable is titled "Mean balance sheet leverage" and is represented with a blue line. The series starts slightly below 2 and remains relatively stable throughout the sample, reaching a local peak of about 2.1 in 2020:Q1. The series has increased slightly in recent quarters and reached its maximum value of around 2.4 in 2024:Q3, the last period for which data is available.

Note: Means are weighted by net asset value (NAV). On-balance-sheet leverage is the ratio of gross asset value to NAV. Gross leverage is the ratio of gross notional exposure to NAV. Gross notional exposure includes both on-balance-sheet exposures and off-balance-sheet derivative notional exposures. Options are delta adjusted, and interest rate derivatives are reported at 10-year bond equivalent values. The data are reported on a 2-quarter lag beginning in 2013:Q1.

Source: Securities and Exchange Commission, Form PF, Reporting Form for Investment Advisers to Private Funds and Certain Commodity Pool Operators and Commodity Trading Advisors.

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Figure 3.12. Balance sheet leverage at the 15 largest hedge funds stayed elevated

This is a line chart titled "Balance sheet leverage at the 15 largest hedge funds stayed elevated". The x-axis measures time and ranges from 2013 to 2024. The data are quarterly. The y-axis measures the leverage ratio, measured as gross asset value (GAV) divided by net asset value (NAV), and ranges from 0 to 15. The chart includes three variables. The first variable is titled "Top 15, by GAV" and is represented by a black line. The series starts at a ratio of about 5 and fluctuations around this level, on average, through 2017. The series increases through 2018 to a peak ratio of about 9 in 2019:Q2. The series then steadily declines to a ratio of about 6 in 2021:Q1 before increasing back to about 9 in 2021:Q3. The series then declines to about 5.8 in 2022:Q3. After this, the series increases steadily to a ratio of about 9 in 2023:Q3, and then reaches its highest point in 2024:Q2 at 11, and drops down slightly to 10 at 2024:Q3, the last period in which data is available. The second variable is titled "16-50, by GAV" and is represented by a blue line. The series begins at a ratio of about 2 and remains around this level, with mild fluctuations, until the end of 2016. The series then increases slightly to 2.8 in 2018:Q4, and continues to hover at that ratio through 2024:Q2. By 2023:Q3, it reaches a ratio of 3 and continues to steadily incline to a peak ratio of 4 at the end of 2024:Q3, the last period in which data is available. The third variable is titled "51+, by GAV" and is represented by a red line. This series begins near a ratio of about 1.5 and remains almost flat throughout the sample. The reading for 2024:Q3, the last period for the data, remains at about 1.5.

Note: Leverage is measured by gross asset value (GAV) divided by net asset value (NAV). Funds are sorted into cohorts based on GAV. Average leverage is computed as the NAV-weighted mean. The data are reported on a 2-quarter lag beginning in 2013:Q1.

Source: Securities and Exchange Commission, Form PF, Reporting Form for Investment Advisers to Private Funds and Certain Commodity Pool Operators and Commodity Trading Advisors.

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Figure 3.13. Dealers indicated that the use of leverage by hedge funds remained largely unchanged for most clients

This is a line chart titled "Dealers indicated that the use of leverage by hedge funds remained largely unchanged for most clients". The x-axis measures time and ranges from 2012 to 2025. The data are quarterly. The y-axis is net percentage and ranges from -80 to 40 percent. The first line, titled "Hedge funds", is designated by a solid black line. This series begins around -50 percent at the start of 2012 but rises to around 20 percent by 2013 and fluctuates between -20 and 20 percent between 2013 and 2022. In 2022, this series briefly dips below -20 percent before rising back to around 0 percent at the end of the year. The series drops to -14 percent in 2023:Q1 and recovers to about 0 percent through the end of 2023 and 2024:Q3. The series steadily increases to 4.5 by the end of 2025:Q1. The second line, titled "Trading REITs", is designated by a solid blue line. This series begins around 0 percent at the start of 2012. It remains near this level until mid-2013, when it falls to around -35 percent for three quarters and then returns to roughly 0 percent. This series remains between about -5 and 5 percent until 2020, when it plummets to almost -80 percent. It then returns to around 0 percent by early 2021, where it remains through 2023. The series sharply increases in 2024:Q3 at about 25 percent, and then falls to -10 percent in 2025:Q1. The third line, titled "Insurance companies", is designated by a solid red line. This series begins at 0 percent in 2012 and remains between -5 and 5 percent through 2021:Q3 where it increases 10 percent. The series returns to hovering between -5 and 5 percent through the end of 2023, and then jumps back to 9 percent in 2024:Q3. By 2025:Q1, the series has declined slightly to 5 percent. The fourth line, titled "Mutual funds", is designated by a dashed black line. This series begins around 0 percent and remains between 0 and 5 percent until 2020, when it briefly falls to about -20 percent. This series then recovers to around 0 percent by 2021 through 2022:Q2. In 2022:Q3, the series drops to below -10 percent and then bounces between -5 and 0 percent, but continues to be at 0 percent in 2025:Q1.

Note: Net percentage equals the percentage of institutions that reported increased use of financial leverage over the past 3 months minus the percentage of institutions that reported decreased use of financial leverage over the past 3 months. REIT is real estate investment trust.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Senior Credit Officer Opinion Survey on Dealer Financing Terms.

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Figure 3.14. The pace of issuance of securitized products remained robust through March

This is a stacked bar chart titled "The pace of issuance of securitized products remained robust through March". The x-axis measures time and ranges from 2001 to 2025. The data are annual. The bar for 2025 is annualized. The y-axis is in billions of dollars (real) and ranges from 0 to 3200. The sum of the five categories begins at about 1000 billion in 2001 and peak around 3000 billion in 2006. The total then drops to about 350 billion in 2008 and steadily increases to about 700 billion in 2019 before dropping slightly to about 550 billion in 2020. Then, the sum increases to 930 billion in 2021 before declining to around 500 billion in 2023. The series increases again in 2024 with a jump to about 750 billion, and then decreases again to about 600 billion with the last data being available from 2025:Q1. "Other", represented in light gray, begins at about 260 billion in 2001, peaks at about 330 billion in 2006-2007, then drops to about 165 billion in 2008. The series rises to about 200 billion in 2009 before dipping back to around 115 billion in 2011. It generally rises through 2018, where it hits about 160 billion. The variable decreases to about 125 billion in 2020 before rising to around 160 billion in 2022. The series declines in 2023 to about 117 billion, then rises again in the final value to about 160 billion in 2024. The series declines in 2025 to 100 billion. "Private-label RMBS", represented in black, begins at around 420 billion in 2001, peaks at about 1700 billion in 2005-2006, then drops sharply to 42 billion in 2008 and stays in decline through 2012 to a low of 21 billion. It then increases steadily to just over 125 billion in 2019 before dipping slightly in 2020 and spiking up to around 190 billion in 2021. The variable declines to 70 billion in 2023 and ticks up to about 120 billion in 2024, and declines again to 90 billion in 2025. "Non-agency CMBS", represented in red shading, begins at about 115 billion dollars in 2001, peaks at about 350 billion dollars in 2007, rapidly decreases to about 15 billion dollars in 2008, and reaches a low of about 3 billion dollars in 2009. It then slowly increases to just over 120 billion dollars in 2015. From this point, it alternates back and forth from about 115 billion dollars to around 80 billion, reaching just over 130 billion dollars in 2021 before declining to about 75 billion dollars in 2022 and 40 billion in 2023. The series increased to a little over 100 billion in 2024.For the annualized 2025 data, increases slightly to 120 billion. "Auto loan/lease ABS", represented in dark blue, begins at about 140 billion dollars in 2001 and remains around that level until 2008 where it decreases to 50 billion dollars. The bar increases to about 110 billion dollars by 2012 and gradually increases to around 150 billion dollars by 2021. It declines to around 120 billion dollars in 2022 and rises to around 150 billion in 2023 and then 166 billion in 2024. The annualized 2025 data hovers at around 160 billion. The bar representing "CDOs (including CLOs and ABS CDOs) ", represented in beige, begins at about 95 billion dollars in 2001, increases rapidly and peaks at about 575 billion dollars in 2006. It then drops to about 75 billion dollars by 2008 and then 6 billion dollars in 2010. It increases to about 260 billion dollars in 2021, then decreases to 118 billion dollars in 2023. The series is at about 190 billion in 2024, and the annualized 2025 bar declines to 130 billion.

Note: The data from the first quarter of 2025 are annualized to create the 2025 bar. RMBS is residential mortgage-backed securities; CMBS is commercial mortgage-backed securities; CDO is collateralized debt obligation; CLO is collateralized loan obligation. The “other” category consists of other asset-backed securities (ABS) backed by credit card debt, student loans, equipment, floor plans, and miscellaneous receivables; resecuritized real estate mortgage investment conduit (Re-REMIC) RMBS; and Re-REMIC CMBS. The data are converted to constant 2025 dollars using the consumer price index. The key identifies bars in order from top to bottom.

Source: Green Street, Commercial Mortgage Alert's CMBS Database and Asset-Backed Alert's ABS Database; consumer price index, Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics.

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Figure 3.15. Bank credit commitments to nonbank financial institutions increased

This is a stacked line chart titled "Bank credit commitments to nonbank financial institutions increased". The x-axis measures time and ranges from 2018 to 2024. The data are quarterly. The y-axis measures billions of dollars and ranges from 0 to 2500. There are 10 variables charted on the plot, which sum up to represent total committed amounts extended to nonbank financials by large banks. The overall trend has been steadily increasing from about 1300 billion in 2018 to about 2300 billion dollars in 2024:Q4. The first variable, "Financial transactions processing", is designated by orange shading. This variable increases steadily from about 21 billion in 2018 to about 28 billion in 2024:Q4. The second variable, "Private equity, BDCs, and credit funds", is designated by turquoise shading. This variable steadily increases from 113 billion in 2018 to 320 billion in 2024:Q4. The third variable, "Broker-dealers", is designated by light blue shading. This variable steadily increases from 81 billion in 2018 to 165 billion in 2024:Q4. The fourth variable, "Insurance companies", is designated by medium blue shading. This variable starts from 100 billion in 2018 to 150 billion by 2024:Q4. The fifth variable, "REITs", is designated by red shading. It begins around 155 billion in 2018:Q1 and increases to 200 billion through 2024:Q4. The sixth variable, "Open-end investment funds", is designated by green shading. This variable begins at 93 billion in 2018 and increases steadily to around 180 billion in 2024:Q4. The seventh variable, "Special purpose entities, CLOs, and ABS", is designated by light gray shading. This variable starts at 120 billion in 2018 and increases steadily to end at 400 billion in 2024:Q4. The eighth variable, "Other financial vehicles", is designated by black shading. This variable increases steadily from 210 billion in 2018 to end around 390 billion in 2024:Q4. The ninth variable, "Real estate lenders and lessors", is designated by beige shading. This variable increases steadily from 170 billion in 2018:Q1 to about 280 billion in 2024:Q4. The tenth variable, "Consumer lenders, other lenders, and lessors", is designated by dark blue shading. This variable starts at 170 billion in 2018 and remains at about that level until 2019:Q2, where it decreases to 157 billion. It then increases steadily throughout the rest of the plotted period, rising to 203 billion in 2024:Q4.

Note: Committed amounts on credit lines and term loans extended to nonbank financial institutions. Nonbank financial institutions are identified based on reported North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes. In addition to NAICS codes, a name-matching algorithm is applied to identify specific entities such as real estate investment trusts (REITs), special purpose entities, collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), asset-backed securities (ABS), private equity, business development companies (BDC), and private credit. REITs incorporate both mortgage (trading) REITs and equity REITs. Broker-dealers also include commodity contracts dealers and brokerages and other securities and commodity exchanges. Other financial vehicles include closed-end investment and mutual funds.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Form FR Y-14Q (Schedule H.1), Capital Assessments and Stress Testing.

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Figure 3.16. Growth of commitments to open-end investment funds, special purpose entities, collateralized loan obligations, and asset-backed securities grew between 2023:Q4 and 2024:Q4

This is a bar chart titled "Growth of commitments to open-end investment funds, special entities, collateralized loan obligations, and asset-backed securities grew between 2023:Q4 and 2024:Q4". The x-axis measures the nine different sectors of NBFIs and a total column. The data are quarterly. The x-axis shows the ten different sectors of NBFIs and a total column. The y-axis represents percent growth of loan commitments and utilization rates to NBFIs and ranges from -30 to 60 percent. The chart shows the 2024:Q4-over-2023:Q4 growth rate. There are two variables plotted on the chart for each sector. "Committed amounts" is represented as a red bar and "utilized amounts" is represented as a light gray bar. From left to right, the first sector is "REITs". This sector saw its committed amount shrink by about 8 percent and its utilized amount shrink by about 7 percent as of 2024:Q4 vs 2023:Q4. The second sector is "Financial transactions processing" which saw its committed amount grow by about 1 percent and saw its utilized amount grow by about 36 percent as of 2024:Q4 vs 2023:Q4. The third sector is "Consumer, leasing, & other lenders". This sector saw its committed amount grow by about 4.5 percent and saw its utilized amount grow by about 5 percent as of 2024:Q4 vs 2023:Q4. The fourth sector is "Insurance companies" which saw their committed amount grow by about 1 percent and saw their utilized amount shrink by about 15 percent as of 2024:Q4 vs 2023:Q4. The fifth sector is "PE, BDCs & credit funds". This sector their committed amount grow by about 9 percent and saw their utilized amount grow by about 19 percent as of 2024:Q4 vs 2023:Q4. The sixth sector is "Broker-dealers" which saw their committed amount grow by about 9 percent and saw their utilized amount grow by about 8 percent as of 2024:Q4 vs 2023:Q4. The seventh sector is "Open-end investment funds" which have seen their committed amount grow by about 20 percent and their utilized amount grow by about 34 percent as of 2024:Q4 vs 2023:Q4. The eighth sector is "SPEs, CLOs, & ABS". This sector saw its committed amount grow by about 20 percent and saw its utilized amount grow by about 19 percent as 2024:Q4 vs 2023:Q4. The ninth sector is "Real estate lenders & lessors". This sector saw its committed amount shrink by about 2 percent and saw its utilized amount shrink by about 6 percent as 2024:Q4 vs 2023:Q4. The tenth sector is "Other financial vehicles" which saw their committed amount shrink by about 0.04 percent and their utilized amount increases by about 4 percent as of 2024:Q4 vs 2023:Q4. Lastly, there are two bars showing the total for all NBFIs, which show their committed amounts grew by about 6 percent and saw their utilized amount grow by about 9.8 percent as 2024:Q4 vs 2023:Q4.

Note: The figure shows 2024:Q4-over-2023:Q4 growth rates as of the end of the fourth quarter of 2024. REIT is real estate investment trust; PE is private equity; BDC is business development company; SPE is special purpose entity; CLO is collateralized loan obligation; ABS is asset-backed securities. The key identifies bars in order from left to right.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Form FR Y-14Q (Schedule H.1), Capital Assessments and Stress Testing.

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Figure 4.1. The ratio of runnable money-like liabilities to GDP remained near its median

Percent of GDP

Date Other Securities lending Commercial paper Domestic money market funds Repurchase agreements Uninsured deposits
2002 Q1 76.0225880358949 68.7832835968834 64.7442275833015 51.6969697374751 30.515300520616 11.2213538044234
2002 Q2 76.6718495303446 69.413429698181 65.0562213801331 52.7151886691059 32.3470743430831 11.4801712047765
2002 Q3 76.3682610755574 68.8991911814138 65.8729403479247 53.7103394625577 33.6326157834743 12.3815075882257
2002 Q4 76.9895718585017 69.2304085646105 66.2988109779248 53.9107870324739 33.6060772659666 12.8816494167731
2003 Q1 77.9225121483455 69.9003081330186 66.3321321664693 54.2140067116519 34.241711481005 13.1955359210072
2003 Q2 79.2716713847134 71.1687376051372 67.1052556971137 55.4045456303156 36.4231335394677 14.0221193541991
2003 Q3 77.5173595894786 69.6796309625587 64.7154427148918 53.5510792261197 35.1990304786943 13.5069257329103
2003 Q4 77.557090989843 68.7659301868039 63.6626184134316 52.7167686713871 35.2511627379678 13.5338506885407
2004 Q1 79.1573353973069 70.157789894156 65.2047190059593 54.0924709060993 37.2755976758441 14.0374265695776
2004 Q2 79.8171779277737 70.7183406130718 64.7731555139768 54.0408031232702 37.9370485459898 14.4192314429104
2004 Q3 80.9341721171179 71.5315400558199 66.2619070507842 55.6488362247933 40.0298725261766 14.66919895473
2004 Q4 80.997525624303 71.6473902792482 65.6727722513678 54.5367442596915 39.3990389939131 15.1441066110524
2005 Q1 82.2524247912494 72.9655959935641 66.3481416361504 55.1042012990434 40.4571938353323 15.042028041311
2005 Q2 84.2520656783439 75.059964950881 67.7553552409194 56.187563242147 41.9217964627275 15.1564307161029
2005 Q3 85.0220053332015 75.9468352927179 69.2131417972077 57.3670613861829 42.9416437266286 15.281148795558
2005 Q4 84.7518350772584 75.692773680518 69.52683311101 57.2176625292369 42.3884777364092 15.7771740910611
2006 Q1 86.4258053590513 77.3280317739313 71.1577103905414 58.6745130066474 43.7401445113384 15.4926202128477
2006 Q2 88.8433570009064 79.5123673597912 72.069134744987 59.2415868501409 44.2824050493035 15.7642597820096
2006 Q3 92.9085909714671 82.9885711867957 75.2464365249404 61.8029060959661 46.1866842153879 15.466179927928
2006 Q4 94.7999236722139 84.4430928374224 76.2105338150844 62.2676822253733 45.9810656932313 16.2619880698941
2007 Q1 97.7805129789318 87.3233525108355 78.540936995271 64.4482234665012 47.7113637429004 15.3948766299465
2007 Q2 100.428691852364 89.9478546331733 79.4707826104876 64.8243440619239 47.7068983574302 15.2445678079739
2007 Q3 100.213657927556 89.6619461533618 78.9219847674968 66.1694643628098 47.4509710503304 15.2139356654784
2007 Q4 100.610818957677 89.7889125991651 79.2745796923776 67.1231356340828 46.585625463662 16.0589030929873
2008 Q1 105.120340153816 93.834125098976 83.9318814731839 71.7999307625119 48.9345561923717 16.0681219001032
2008 Q2 101.878480389604 90.1978925547796 80.1041243603698 68.3452100384329 45.4300514013349 15.5057640897241
2008 Q3 100.194119397114 88.9929659994133 80.0404791067221 69.6046841953177 46.3909282465679 16.3760690320747
2008 Q4 87.2862229015724 76.1739881501605 70.3780747826587 59.4301279796296 34.0077635177484 12.1927520354844
2009 Q1 87.1293036486398 76.2296180893288 70.9068891438231 61.0397513017984 34.2470532431462 12.1270738487319
2009 Q2 85.2469936851394 74.4992618982294 68.9908324640945 60.0986972526613 34.107524681217 12.1273265263305
2009 Q3 78.8525057762601 68.5676695271212 63.1774997208874 55.0849086094804 30.668584449129 8.17650848349374
2009 Q4 74.2814071276354 64.9610335515647 59.5083921698096 51.7454087993304 29.022023919311 8.66623584100023
2010 Q1 77.5849652387962 68.5373875700493 63.2702199454896 55.9488072746249 34.8667089327114 12.2150989342082
2010 Q2 74.9085065780919 66.3260946266854 60.8919691753728 54.0292670692797 35.1006640354826 12.2369494995408
2010 Q3 75.3497192360044 66.7426093249802 61.9121152518548 54.9738091333439 36.412742486543 13.6654401103405
2010 Q4 70.3167239990371 61.9510445446504 57.0991753406733 50.1920012185109 31.8999543025511 9.5322926971254
2011 Q1 71.1556310931171 62.9748430452331 57.975689585262 50.6069060944779 32.8124226902631 9.61279672908339
2011 Q2 70.6624277853401 62.9218659906019 57.796147398829 50.8439037151659 33.4021875157078 10.0977800181193
2011 Q3 69.418250158315 62.0186426627189 57.4191084317708 51.0000356099781 34.3057763545059 10.3750482225041
2011 Q4 68.0962429700912 61.113205467063 56.9037744918496 50.785758149427 34.050276591315 10.4607215398345
2012 Q1 67.5226839949028 60.7724041858022 56.6611163416833 50.5657721352574 34.1994215157393 10.5383693102781
2012 Q2 67.0425998525269 60.2724048998889 56.1175415334803 50.2759837618482 34.5821159760023 10.5993313751109
2012 Q3 66.526931526558 59.769960530266 55.8525358606772 50.0950637750461 34.4607437493378 10.4764855547638
2012 Q4 67.7420341658079 61.2018752132079 57.6505003380258 51.9384903453387 35.9883299586478 11.9014878361014
2013 Q1 75.0072030502239 68.3986119091808 64.767962485813 58.8162161956225 42.9409565302418 20.0620090367825
2013 Q2 73.4347063888895 67.1228514548576 63.2588502485437 57.399245215874 41.9531939706886 20.0543246180199
2013 Q3 72.9589244633775 66.8927684157296 63.1256597844633 57.4244198676245 41.8545919619904 20.805092739178
2013 Q4 72.6345656838382 65.2368543594814 61.5169804846338 56.0416725582994 40.4164658853659 21.3920076378355
2014 Q1 73.5510072799887 65.9213364613949 61.9247880899245 56.2154559872811 40.7109572754931 21.4604213138379
2014 Q2 72.5265794082143 64.9333986513141 60.7283380411609 55.0474773972796 40.3779672997302 21.8937606163614
2014 Q3 71.3977550518148 63.9551876446102 60.0232691728169 54.486466492327 40.0175257440957 22.0844801100404
2014 Q4 70.8976786440604 63.819398128806 60.0256229542567 54.8890332411127 40.0155609881152 22.6241851326275
2015 Q1 70.9899780659376 63.9892085411396 60.3061686030151 55.0891482150131 40.3002384731792 22.7017154678427
2015 Q2 69.159663218373 62.4437714074361 58.8594662150426 53.5614989621755 39.3712368307046 22.496921582197
2015 Q3 69.380149526102 62.7144405976452 59.4175315338033 54.0867744371929 39.5859687294074 22.4265274336355
2015 Q4 69.1061477774194 62.4003476670227 58.8067319750198 53.7556383737592 38.9493430186809 22.8384964292305
2016 Q1 69.6997630235069 63.1588333761666 59.6431439368302 54.1869060797325 39.3091654192936 22.9658089074043
2016 Q2 70.3073655808546 63.6671528192458 60.0289999941238 54.6549297086424 40.1932024964411 23.1387936243053
2016 Q3 69.7307961371298 63.0512791475652 59.72543794368 54.9563741079705 40.6596332803215 23.6893323323571
2016 Q4 68.6821720658231 61.929281538067 58.6605843267883 54.0792253495495 39.9080439123046 23.8873858247628
2017 Q1 68.4771892802438 61.7612844338584 58.5515114690304 53.7442866919099 39.8651222304549 23.6706879265931
2017 Q2 68.5279442542912 61.8533087175863 58.4615486354187 53.7527117872138 40.155413525876 23.5106703355656
2017 Q3 68.3526381116535 61.5753613324485 58.3095131848405 53.373429190907 39.6397489251353 23.5406365033722
2017 Q4 68.6070689764326 61.956412506675 58.5125455177209 53.7433094499248 39.7991529936573 23.669586123399
2018 Q1 67.7345003747432 61.2392947903116 57.8146890619681 52.7077881545736 38.8755398222238 23.2270787001232
2018 Q2 67.2595902800067 60.7218653260508 57.1350937212881 52.0760076385747 38.3675352767409 22.6854265534066
2018 Q3 67.0100156968885 60.4387751896014 57.0362835527172 52.0588977593223 38.33064848641 22.7568662132556
2018 Q4 69.1493357155244 62.6598412451375 59.4149456759424 54.7029260818833 40.5408694693871 23.1911515561374
2019 Q1 69.7879584131656 63.3515896248858 60.1305659054392 55.146983355221 40.5966970986922 22.4886455343271
2019 Q2 70.4615544813091 64.0024134483289 60.696323587737 55.6898084009699 40.9969135372997 22.5619610337863
2019 Q3 72.4346725411831 65.9918674937013 62.7774279741688 57.9158829825928 42.4332221271189 22.9622202123207
2019 Q4 72.5231844734893 66.1007562739521 62.9751925131554 58.2402236033991 41.9546632134208 23.4793881638521
2020 Q1 78.6652603783636 71.9428383371822 68.8201562332707 63.8391863713339 46.0460218038581 26.8525734670505
2020 Q2 90.4475787888487 82.6432747330166 78.9012438130349 73.8844806364943 50.2425488758239 31.0620124520741
2020 Q3 83.2274464249175 76.0650270894833 72.8105916308156 68.4276418817855 47.6660872616322 29.8272321487657
2020 Q4 83.2999505770408 76.3524446025667 72.9977937599302 68.8041701738621 49.1185778614325 31.0139306371024
2021 Q1 82.7474560610874 75.6875651523753 72.1344075842421 67.2361677600216 47.8269701152652 31.5343088756538
2021 Q2 82.0875396523759 74.8970242010442 70.9235309288265 66.2592643994734 46.7596547836403 31.5322473388038
2021 Q3 81.582967383754 74.5103289130915 70.719289827722 66.2214033065329 47.2866787679274 32.2477963535989
2021 Q4 81.1122651133044 74.0879521017426 70.254410442201 66.0095325642124 47.270220114247 32.5037236530755
2022 Q1 79.9904917362595 73.1900734056437 69.1398508329372 64.6203909346301 46.3899062165917 32.1640484966414
2022 Q2 76.9612647834045 70.2009829734001 66.3437505279318 61.8336000547965 44.2924595151918 30.5773387108876
2022 Q3 74.7002249980964 68.0572114634321 64.3725843720168 59.9346673290049 42.5355777300651 28.8634556901877
2022 Q4 73.7683694043761 67.1380464739397 63.6583183654624 59.155907427928 41.6301825566949 28.0223174348188
2023 Q1 73.8933558588447 67.1825166241144 63.8022739596679 59.5047861751573 41.2047109429998 25.3085657863996
2023 Q2 74.6762491099964 68.0502075010217 64.5609603507822 60.2739825123879 40.7061339881179 24.2330865064883
2023 Q3 74.372490843767 67.5925686450481 64.262625712638 59.9482231428235 39.9626061647791 23.5552600899933
2023 Q4 75.8097013235388 68.8327892484789 65.5624897536685 61.2334496111441 40.6572584125138 23.7890343347133
2024 Q1 76.8312206776112 69.8608312130734 66.4892700177391 62.1662369139703 41.155193608655 23.8771906787824
2024 Q2 76.4268196811436 69.399220166977 65.9705580834593 61.7617011720383 40.9008679984405 23.1716313435551
2024 Q3 77.3506077856882 70.2643429544248 66.8220790950656 62.5805823024069 41.4704289245962 23.5122862561827
2024 Q4 76.4309359844554 69.1588135223288 65.6441950328825 61.1919610414926 40.3296350666463 23.7758409633838

Note: The black striped area denotes the period from 2008:Q4 to 2012:Q4, when insured deposits increased because of the Transaction Account Guarantee program. The “other” category consists of variable-rate demand obligations (VRDOs), federal funds, funding-agreement-backed securities, private liquidity funds, offshore money market funds, short-term investment funds, local government investment pools, and stablecoins. Securities lending includes only lending collateralized by cash. GDP is gross domestic product. Values for VRDOs come from Bloomberg beginning in 2019:Q1. See Jack Bao, Josh David, and Song Han (2015), "The Runnables," FEDS Notes (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, September 3), https://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/notes/feds-notes/2015/the-runnables-20150903.html.

Source: Securities and Exchange Commission, Private Funds Statistics; iMoneyNet, Inc., Offshore Money Fund Analyzer; Bloomberg Finance L.P.; Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association: U.S. Municipal Variable-Rate Demand Obligation Update; DTCC Solutions LLC, an affiliate of the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation: commercial paper data; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations based on Risk Management Association, Securities Lending Report; S&P Securities Finance; Investment Company Institute; Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release Z.1, "Financial Accounts of the United States"; Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council, Consolidated Reports of Condition and Income (Call Report); gross domestic product, Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics; Llama Corp, DeFiLlama.

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Figure 4.2. The share of high-quality liquid assets to total assets remained above pre-pandemic levels

This is a line chart titled "The share of high-quality liquid assets to total assets remained above pre-pandemic levels". The x-axis measures time and ranges from 2001 to 2024. The data are quarterly. The y-axis represents liquid assets as a percent of assets, and ranges from 0 to 32 percent. There are three variables in the chart. The first line, labeled "G-SIBs", is designated by a red line and ranges from about 6 to 31 percent. It begins around 10 percent and remains there until 2004. The series then falls to around 6 percent by 2006, staying there until 2008. The series jumps sharply to 13 percent in late 2008, and then increases steadily to 22 percent through 2014. The series remains around 22 percent until early 2019 when it temporarily dips to 20 percent, before rising quickly to about 31 percent by the end of 2021. The series then declines sharply to about 25 percent in 2023:Q2, then rises to 26 percent in 2023:Q4 before falling back to around 25 percent in 2024:Q2. After falling back to 24 percent in 2024:Q3, it ticks up to 25 percent in 2024:Q4. The second line, labeled "Large non-G-SIBs", is designated by a blue line and ranges from 6 to about 25 percent. This variable falls from about 10 percent to about 6 percent in 2008:Q2 before rising to 14 percent by 2011. The series falls to 12 percent in 2013 before rising slowly to 16 percent in 2017, then declining slightly to around 15 percent by the end of 2019. The series then rises sharply from early 2020 to early 2021 to about 25 percent, before falling to about 18 percent by 2022:Q4 and then rising to about 21 percent by 2023:Q4. It rose again to over 22 percent as of 2024:Q2 and then ticked slightly up and then back down to 23 percent as of 2024:Q4. The third line, labeled "Other BHCs" is designated by a black line and ranges from about 5 percent to about 18 percent. The series falls from about 11 percent in 2001 to about 5 percent in 2008:Q1 and then rises steadily to about 12 percent in 2011 where it remains until the end of 2012. The line then declines steadily to around 10 percent at the end of 2019 before sharply increasing to about 19 percent by 2021:Q4. The series then declines to just over 11 percent in 2024:Q2 before rising back to 12 percent in the last two quarters of 2024.

Note: The sample consists of domestic BHCs, IHCs with a substantial U.S. commercial banking presence, and commercial banks. G-SIBs are global systemically important banks. Large non–G-SIBs are BHCs and IHCs with greater than $100 billion in total assets that are not G-SIBs. Liquid assets are cash plus estimates of securities that qualify as high-quality liquid assets as defined by the Liquidity Coverage Ratio requirement. Accordingly, Level 1 assets as well as discounts and restrictions on Level 2 assets are incorporated into the estimate.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Form FR Y-9C, Consolidated Financial Statements for Holding Companies.

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Figure 4.3. Banks’ reliance on short-term wholesale funding has returned to pre-pandemic levels

This is a line chart titled "Banks’ reliance on short-term wholesale funding has returned to pre-pandemic levels". The x-axis measures time and ranges from 2000 to 2024. The data are quarterly. The y-axis represents short-term wholesale funding as a percent of assets, and ranges from 5 to 40 percent. There is one variable charted on the plot. The variable is designated by a black line and ranges from about 10 to 35 percent. The variable begins near 27 percent in 2000:Q1, declines steadily to about 23 percent in 2003:Q4, increases to about 33 percent by the end of 2006 and remains there until 2008:Q1. It then steadily declines to about 16 percent in 2015:Q1 and remains near that level through 2019:Q3 before steadily declining to about 11 percent in 2021:Q4. The series then increases to 16 percent in 2023:Q3 and ends in a slight decline to 15.6 percent in 2023:Q4 before increasing again to just over 17 percent in 2024:Q2. The series decreases for the last two quarters of 2024, ending at 15 percent as of 2024:Q4.

Note: Short-term wholesale funding is defined as the sum of large time deposits with maturity less than 1 year, federal funds purchased and securities sold under agreements to repurchase, deposits in foreign offices with maturity less than 1 year, trading liabilities (excluding revaluation losses on derivatives), and other borrowed money with maturity less than 1 year. The shaded bars with top caps indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: March 2001–November 2001, December 2007–June 2009, and February 2020–April 2020.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Form FR Y-9C, Consolidated Financial Statements for Holding Companies.

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Figure 4.4. Assets under management at money market funds increased to an all-time high in January

This is a stacked line chart titled "Assets under management at money market funds increased to an all-time high in January". The x-axis measures time and ranges from 2000 to 2025. The data are monthly. The y-axis ranges from 0 to 7000 in billions of dollars (real). There are four variables in the chart. The first variable is labeled "Government". It is designated by the beige portion of the chart and ranges from about 600 to about 5100. This variable starts around 600 billion dollars and remains around that level until mid-2007. The series then increases to around 2000 billion dollars by the start of 2009 before falling back to around 1000 billion dollars by 2011. The series remains around this level until the end of 2015 when the series increases rapidly to around 2700 billion dollars by the end of 2016. The series stays at this level until the end of 2018, when it begins a steady rise to over 3000 billion dollars by the end of 2019 and rises sharply to around 4650 billion dollars in early 2020 before steadily falling to about 4000 billion by October 2022. The variable then remains at 4000 billion until February 2023, after which it saw a pronounced rise to just over 4800 by January 2024. It reached a series maximum in August 2024, eclipsing 5000 billion. The series has another steep increase after August, peaking around 5650 billion in January 2025. The second portion is labeled "Tax exempt". This series is designated by the red portion of the chart and ranges from about 90 to about just over 700. This variable starts around 380 billion dollars and increases continuously to the peak value of around 700 billion dollars in 2008. Starting in 2009, the variable declines quickly and then more gradually through 2015, ending 2015 at around 340 billion dollars. The series drops sharply to 165 billion dollars in 2016 and remains around that level through mid-2020, before declining steadily to around 90 by January 2022. The variable then slowly increases to around 120 by January 2024, before settling around 130 billion in August 2024. The series stays around this value, ending at 133 billion in January 2025. The third portion is labeled "Retail prime" and is designated by the light blue portion of the chart. The variable ranges from about 200 to around 1400 billion. This variable starts at 1300 billion dollars and fluctuates around this level through early 2002. The variable declines gradually from mid-2002 until 2005 where it hits a low of around 850 billion dollars. The series then increases steadily through 2008 when it reaches a local peak of around 1200 billion dollars. The series then falls quickly, and then more slowly, through 2015, ending 2015 at about 550 billion dollars. The series falls sharply in 2016 to about 320 billion dollars and remains there until mid-2018. It then increases steadily to around 550 billion dollars by early 2020. The series falls sharply to 350 billion dollars by the end of 2020 before decreasing to about 200 billion dollars by April 2022. The variable then increases sharply to about 800 billion dollars by August 2024. The series continues increasing through the beginning of 2025, ending at 880 billion in January 2025. The fourth portion is labeled "Institutional prime". It is designated by the dark blue filled portion of the chart and ranges from about 160 to just under 1800. This variable starts at 770 billion dollars and generally increases from 2000 through 2002 to about 1400 billion dollars. From 2003 through mid-2005, the series falls to about 1050 billion dollars and then starts rising again, hitting about 1800 billion dollars in August 2008. The variable has a sharp decline in late 2008 to about 1300 billion dollars before quickly rebounding to about 1800 billion dollars in August 2009. The series generally falls over the next few years, hitting about 1200 billion dollars by early 2012, where it remains until late 2015. The variable experiences an accelerating decline beginning in early 2016, ending the year with its series minimum value of around 160 billion dollars. The series increases through early 2020 to about 390 billion dollars, drops sharply in March 2020 to 270 billion dollars, increases back to about 370 billion dollars, before declining steadily to 220 billion dollars by June 2022. The series increases slightly to around 280 billion dollars in January 2024 before falling down to 240 billion in August 2024. This decrease continues for the rest of 2024 before a tick up from 215 billion in December 2024 to 221 billion in January 2025.

Note: The data are converted to constant 2025 dollars using the consumer price index.

Source: Federal Reserve Board staff calculations based on Investment Company Institute data; consumer price index, Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics.

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Figure 4.5. Market capitalization of major stablecoins has grown significantly

Billions of dollars

Date Other TerraUSD Dai Binance USD USD Coin Tether
2020-12-31 28.300553248 27.205880094 27.025604421 25.853741126 24.866808981 20.935116985
2021-01-01 28.884440693 27.757324164 27.573910812 26.362655567 25.287327764 21.165735738
2021-01-02 29.102492528 27.927978973 27.744757959 26.553871011 25.408000738 21.269142057
2021-01-03 29.330882536 28.176892959 27.997472319 26.750509371 25.579299652 21.365921518
2021-01-04 29.648834021 28.505570833 28.324042123 27.007844454 25.974864498 21.801817637
2021-01-05 30.19711903 28.950831492 28.763729742 27.442613315 26.371357752 21.999023184
2021-01-06 30.774270483 29.481217659 29.288955694 27.967118673 26.859087762 22.4747342
2021-01-07 31.344578778 30.003105569 29.817360853 28.453109873 27.35542791 22.851073405
2021-01-08 32.171360068 30.843253524 30.653412585 29.264265785 28.159515937 23.583727384
2021-01-09 32.770822981 31.427138222 31.242999525 29.819785339 28.663955634 23.913934009
2021-01-10 33.293960988 31.945717042 31.758782913 30.328242085 29.161146346 24.329532341
2021-01-11 33.498501411 32.171265986 31.980871287 30.593678561 29.530555998 24.685391833
2021-01-12 33.196079478 31.784569097 31.587563744 30.214845729 29.149468034 24.351165459
2021-01-13 33.175643306 31.835552428 31.645388074 30.274584698 29.199097061 24.425386977
2021-01-14 33.139170737 31.705974058 31.506041729 30.09561774 29.009213777 24.162272324
2021-01-15 33.251786037 31.806788873 31.609721843 30.318785516 29.164599674 24.279459849
2021-01-16 33.581420878 32.120034181 31.922788976 30.551054753 29.412721171 24.367969508
2021-01-17 33.592381029 32.073215317 31.887604903 30.504976607 29.342707522 24.28103872
2021-01-18 33.803887946 32.248403149 32.049355312 30.643484281 29.493884507 24.365435402
2021-01-19 33.700225819 32.094500206 31.899521325 30.496841297 29.352719801 24.236946768
2021-01-20 34.374451501 32.759326849 32.555100637 31.149052143 30.022130148 24.718410858
2021-01-21 34.712328854 33.12397261 32.916706461 31.502990514 30.398034469 25.018693185
2021-01-22 34.78228391 33.183947836 32.967554789 31.522710048 30.336713616 24.811541182
2021-01-23 34.791172902 33.177272813 32.950884768 31.490435008 30.305061482 24.712146512
2021-01-24 35.029213133 33.392377972 33.168596303 31.634415139 30.412001092 24.802853572
2021-01-25 35.176383556 33.521977685 33.27452952 31.696481174 30.49795949 24.964568822
2021-01-26 35.3360144 33.63591275 33.379942744 31.78275057 30.562502725 25.13978388
2021-01-27 35.734535265 34.043601775 33.786286527 32.18010577 30.811095467 25.307575273
2021-01-28 35.934633295 34.23174743 33.965481646 32.354171961 30.957960475 25.35001807
2021-01-29 36.002887431 34.303400221 34.031760288 32.414304714 30.929714366 25.103831303
2021-01-30 37.095655679 35.374340931 35.097780428 33.456696742 31.984225807 26.168831343
2021-01-31 37.498631878 35.756733228 35.474959006 33.828970375 32.358069148 26.483682759
2021-02-01 37.405233504 35.682231767 35.406790611 33.753373053 32.343605945 26.472459964
2021-02-02 37.835240933 36.099098318 35.822572645 34.11510118 32.707190301 26.762411109
2021-02-03 38.294834274 36.552324408 36.285949286 34.551471299 33.124077999 27.038111736
2021-02-04 38.866833093 37.133869596 36.875808676 35.104401981 33.651413741 27.502829455
2021-02-05 39.591857344 37.809035701 37.540993433 35.719723875 34.202036653 27.873077234
2021-02-06 40.186896315 38.377606261 38.116627438 36.29229875 34.738282313 28.300602949
2021-02-07 40.425004137 38.591755596 38.319946732 36.517387403 34.977000238 28.528206626
2021-02-08 41.087904802 39.212603587 38.932770067 37.041915192 35.481224907 28.948919015
2021-02-09 42.146852917 40.102839636 39.810284253 37.864164406 36.263699075 29.626314075
2021-02-10 42.92351813 40.875686117 40.567474397 38.601327967 36.937583625 30.196176794
2021-02-11 43.637320448 41.605957618 41.275298415 39.245049354 37.569217454 30.6771049
2021-02-12 44.13606922 42.059964251 41.693319297 39.64952171 37.997476822 30.976539268
2021-02-13 44.99256276 42.870167201 42.475265053 40.405165758 38.686263179 31.500838668
2021-02-14 45.547884757 43.467191112 43.0452501 40.979433326 39.238663007 31.831885538
2021-02-15 45.79164715 43.72822749 43.294932991 41.171917653 39.548437359 32.125633437
2021-02-16 46.137373754 44.071839934 43.610465163 41.411602029 39.825139097 32.357447861
2021-02-17 46.14725478 44.060270879 43.574991233 41.318010598 39.668934901 32.413291911
2021-02-18 47.159506968 45.066370554 44.563185412 42.259410362 40.529227321 33.167537656
2021-02-19 48.564092352 46.386026862 45.858884614 43.524421373 41.557963593 33.964430062
2021-02-20 49.659009132 47.430200543 46.88747167 44.524306185 42.346873682 34.545753091
2021-02-21 49.832324472 47.55044322 46.987180353 44.593027595 42.396688192 34.510046446
2021-02-22 50.476154287 48.247254267 47.655799762 45.278575972 43.01713555 34.939749133
2021-02-23 50.609085317 48.276460921 47.679723565 45.360244607 43.199948319 35.025482933
2021-02-24 51.452730675 49.104780659 48.491445237 46.143514473 43.862887917 35.41640669
2021-02-25 51.012579127 48.711827047 48.08629856 45.756527186 43.470013896 35.083600306
2021-02-26 52.251718792 49.871166087 49.212341207 46.879811141 44.529958293 35.581859982
2021-02-27 51.636401747 49.255285997 48.579967523 46.24243436 43.863303633 34.808762267
2021-02-28 52.381092651 49.95613715 49.266892038 46.898914965 44.546896091 35.568293656
2021-03-01 52.917089895 50.312117694 49.602432991 47.12672959 44.572366033 35.495107615
2021-03-02 53.676793235 51.104507155 50.371296698 47.827916083 44.963299989 35.948972275
2021-03-03 53.239903772 50.676745481 49.953091149 47.422096885 44.618106734 35.821819941
2021-03-04 54.368362706 51.843711078 51.095530009 48.518501883 45.544491825 36.557122622
2021-03-05 54.368171027 51.854826349 51.084088894 48.530396902 45.321901142 36.387300593
2021-03-06 54.676632413 52.208478045 51.430979466 48.841550919 45.605267796 36.572628505
2021-03-07 54.838635501 52.352307083 51.560835035 49.011033626 45.850741575 36.652063182
2021-03-08 54.565901184 52.084180133 51.268759458 48.690777738 45.677574004 36.499013028
2021-03-09 55.283932904 52.818890739 51.983384306 49.338525516 46.150963135 36.984401411
2021-03-10 55.526716469 53.074342639 52.206845795 49.581959171 46.367938138 37.185340231
2021-03-11 56.186394675 53.691530694 52.784755188 50.10792308 46.978252601 37.666310374
2021-03-12 57.048171398 54.532893501 53.562407656 50.831521666 47.625753586 38.26734084
2021-03-13 57.337846276 54.801103098 53.783309932 51.023364419 47.829862284 38.386048842
2021-03-14 57.376061659 54.796037585 53.775649411 51.000519209 47.888599669 38.533411509
2021-03-15 57.694296988 55.109175128 54.048476717 51.261721136 48.165461894 38.650333128
2021-03-16 57.97410992 55.391785094 54.238173933 51.428890171 48.355963554 38.779245187
2021-03-17 58.569637249 55.930383399 54.732511911 51.866327472 48.760382239 39.118228142
2021-03-18 58.946773252 56.284661157 55.032960611 52.146865957 48.949388732 39.177862565
2021-03-19 59.628608028 56.973406551 55.682258391 52.806333425 49.580138777 39.574945993
2021-03-20 60.002429911 57.356569034 56.057157405 53.172979178 49.918567319 39.86406695
2021-03-21 60.255576847 57.605091954 56.271328909 53.369599953 50.129294598 39.868153344
2021-03-22 60.416603222 57.863244435 56.49632988 53.563400671 50.198165825 39.921765429
2021-03-23 60.201917479 57.5971101 56.194810942 53.280127738 49.904842946 39.614375577
2021-03-24 60.425612752 57.877804451 56.448013237 53.526107817 50.211595074 39.829512767
2021-03-25 60.961292111 58.432060038 56.992127245 54.070005843 50.805476662 40.280316222
2021-03-26 61.73056545 58.994980709 57.497955035 54.534928023 51.144727103 40.271968382
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2024-11-02 172.299993793 160.072904063 160.072904063 155.2062314 155.138979815 120.349357582
2024-11-03 172.74353715 160.33623943 160.33623943 155.456768673 155.388635231 120.534696883
2024-11-04 173.042999902 160.668536947 160.668536947 155.782447664 155.714315314 120.625494594
2024-11-05 173.000507321 160.931139547 160.931139547 156.166896213 156.095466212 120.624809985
2024-11-06 175.276946919 163.379933827 163.379933827 158.585430826 158.517245943 121.71593194
2024-11-07 176.022295279 163.763282824 163.763282824 159.051096981 158.982940207 122.159677788
2024-11-08 177.430719658 164.964250867 164.964250867 160.223002782 160.154711061 123.092672428
2024-11-09 177.209779143 165.032958141 165.032958141 160.295398955 160.227337011 123.358597847
2024-11-10 178.361607596 166.07740798 166.07740798 161.336122658 161.267558043 124.08808613
2024-11-11 178.102005431 166.055613347 166.055613347 161.332027276 161.264104645 124.397201722
2024-11-12 178.680617984 166.850488548 166.850488548 162.231815444 162.16371932 125.748139313
2024-11-13 179.619043284 168.231425348 168.231425348 163.57737374 163.509665467 126.954639103
2024-11-14 180.956804581 169.338283879 169.338283879 164.685464255 164.618337246 127.796508638
2024-11-15 181.251945643 169.304313694 169.304313694 164.661205919 164.593609123 127.748815871
2024-11-16 181.698672592 169.51469527 169.51469527 164.857355582 164.789335118 127.768384715
2024-11-17 181.79885259 169.654276734 169.654276734 164.991420597 164.923817661 127.923523973
2024-11-18 182.679071384 170.661031851 170.661031851 166.015798227 165.947916325 128.63936937
2024-11-19 183.448066074 171.37572349 171.37572349 166.674158136 166.606200711 129.260594783
2024-11-20 185.292774231 173.275856312 173.275856312 168.543509545 168.476567285 130.635888006
2024-11-21 186.526583401 174.292226073 174.292226073 169.551674622 169.485470882 131.33025066
2024-11-22 188.219117808 176.028969838 176.028969838 171.319051374 171.251434043 132.471840504
2024-11-23 189.464097138 176.996735937 176.996735937 172.237300215 172.169257169 133.057084002
2024-11-24 189.376949017 176.960194865 176.960194865 172.231544685 172.1627754 133.077645696
2024-11-25 188.307795832 176.081901376 176.081901376 171.366585891 171.298785994 132.742165686
2024-11-26 188.53538287 176.198168612 176.198168612 171.581227156 171.513588607 133.00142915
2024-11-27 190.329310889 177.898929518 177.898929518 173.173026798 173.107645014 133.559399262
2024-11-28 187.544344819 175.043402592 175.043402592 170.315844687 170.247850284 134.105477258
2024-11-29 191.423919093 178.888102908 178.888102908 174.140036894 174.070790045 134.34841747
2024-11-30 192.027109338 179.128025842 179.128025842 174.44871525 174.379741294 134.52683349
2024-12-01 192.13483203 179.393667056 179.393667056 174.694902256 174.62787881 134.611017547
2024-12-02 192.892782034 179.980258733 179.980258733 175.274390584 175.211201094 135.282385653
2024-12-03 193.258764807 180.339383124 180.339383124 175.644623472 175.57872435 135.473574254
2024-12-04 194.704963066 181.58200045 181.58200045 176.941659249 176.875956064 136.317523367
2024-12-05 195.263130369 181.942608916 181.942608916 177.37839949 177.310979461 137.112253358
2024-12-06 196.195827043 183.921705266 183.921705266 179.3726614 179.305023397 138.176856741
2024-12-07 196.549867984 184.133759467 184.133759467 179.592330259 179.532914961 138.401080741
2024-12-08 197.524974161 183.902263469 183.902263469 179.326679678 179.263197919 138.337361929
2024-12-09 197.374844752 183.930200533 183.930200533 179.45136276 179.380887888 138.781859312
2024-12-10 197.66617686 184.171381021 184.171381021 179.669909296 179.604676444 138.915791058
2024-12-11 199.783435164 186.183842738 186.183842738 181.661503329 181.591710692 140.00580045
2024-12-12 200.130324449 186.49382686 186.49382686 181.992891399 181.925957121 140.40491098
2024-12-13 200.998047068 187.010133728 187.010133728 182.487178687 182.420149579 140.448004125
2024-12-14 201.234629444 187.171215509 187.171215509 182.631659421 182.563583628 140.537641436
2024-12-15 201.449008645 187.222631257 187.222631257 182.721124235 182.653085828 140.568004125
2024-12-16 201.791485877 187.740125652 187.740125652 183.208554483 183.142379055 140.758577764
2024-12-17 201.963619893 188.008082755 188.008082755 183.467156839 183.400576437 140.880782929
2024-12-18 201.697390203 187.834530728 187.834530728 183.318600457 183.246897562 140.922490659
2024-12-19 201.897776518 187.93639788 187.93639788 183.426967329 183.358198044 140.886878527
2024-12-20 201.62052 187.637119091 187.637119091 183.19853323 183.130519793 140.385777553
2024-12-21 201.580229225 187.549275012 187.549275012 183.102224359 183.035759323 140.061740871
2024-12-22 202.187261195 187.868130383 187.868130383 183.452035976 183.382925573 140.292853908
2024-12-23 201.724411787 187.194235741 187.194235741 182.765451384 182.697576782 139.688611814
2024-12-24 201.790778405 187.21295508 187.21295508 182.772342265 182.705328234 139.66497467
2024-12-25 201.887248918 187.342962532 187.342962532 182.874022645 182.809518488 139.675859154
2024-12-26 202.3545737 187.531296894 187.531296894 183.052454186 182.984399747 139.53185765
2024-12-27 202.433107 187.307850772 187.307850772 182.859111865 182.791000869 139.272991974
2024-12-28 202.18217064 187.328178289 187.328178289 182.879826028 182.812267437 139.205722458
2024-12-29 201.507960726 186.821729166 186.821729166 182.494437291 182.42614557 138.851015375
2024-12-30 200.856337469 186.103655826 186.103655826 181.686859129 181.619016797 137.825770033
2024-12-31 200.554909712 185.735430462 185.735430462 181.356976839 181.289048477 137.388677499
2025-01-01 200.002174134 185.452728259 185.452728259 181.158416851 181.090559287 137.416189761
2025-01-02 201.818168667 186.467642958 186.467642958 182.058300408 181.990181498 137.56283174
2025-01-03 203.464703185 187.295581331 187.295581331 182.847165005 182.779129668 137.474579521
2025-01-04 203.33451089 187.572000019 187.572000019 183.10995424 183.0407149 137.521413557
2025-01-05 203.059570183 187.650752967 187.650752967 183.176413294 183.109007387 137.563370382
2025-01-06 203.260001522 187.881372522 187.881372522 183.392639096 183.330174217 137.645514579
2025-01-07 202.884187909 187.464782017 187.464782017 183.017311963 182.954492527 137.505135441
2025-01-08 203.071042576 187.730172163 187.730172163 183.286112264 183.222825543 137.935774895
2025-01-09 202.906787537 187.697069238 187.697069238 183.233799914 183.175923949 137.761713901
2025-01-10 203.339270241 187.951631462 187.951631462 183.520225743 183.460215611 137.7222411
2025-01-11 203.128375741 187.870788503 187.870788503 183.454889938 183.397631884 137.665311556
2025-01-12 203.447265334 188.018892381 188.018892381 183.529461992 183.469339892 137.735645823
2025-01-13 203.365552585 187.71128618 187.71128618 183.197221095 183.13747573 137.530090663
2025-01-14 203.785448294 187.894357095 187.894357095 183.370108091 183.309643735 137.582647233
2025-01-15 204.55281934 188.737244101 188.737244101 184.060972563 184.000577106 137.762258053
2025-01-16 204.775363545 188.934716989 188.934716989 184.308701149 184.248029129 137.802584445
2025-01-17 206.503781545 190.668313348 190.668313348 185.949131576 185.888739265 138.480973594
2025-01-18 206.510909099 190.774661667 190.774661667 186.110514102 186.052942707 138.531794731
2025-01-19 207.31980164 191.401121936 191.401121936 186.805813459 186.746513909 138.52971713
2025-01-20 207.49045243 191.593868498 191.593868498 186.987250856 186.928202826 138.761501548
2025-01-21 210.192996903 194.388526361 194.388526361 189.742298355 189.682549663 138.819926586
2025-01-22 211.457565389 195.42113232 195.42113232 190.761071666 190.701155113 139.155191071
2025-01-23 212.203857053 195.919364063 195.919364063 191.247539617 191.188044138 139.23652074
2025-01-24 212.825992865 196.702399797 196.702399797 191.991972756 191.931892394 139.763773679
2025-01-25 212.867623367 196.665653588 196.665653588 191.945972517 191.886492766 139.767735496
2025-01-26 212.672025784 196.61919027 196.61919027 191.900112204 191.839735076 139.760049115
2025-01-27 213.081251931 196.851881491 196.851881491 192.223527367 192.163626481 139.822724633
2025-01-28 213.581611791 197.161574241 197.161574241 192.488160575 192.427784112 139.923109874
2025-01-29 213.803942835 197.312396509 197.312396509 192.611634268 192.551332329 139.982628523
2025-01-30 214.472733563 197.851026741 197.851026741 193.156443493 193.096762611 139.968547355
2025-01-31 214.512214656 197.972380853 197.972380853 193.300538183 193.241686868 139.945461409
2025-02-01 214.572165441 197.934030892 197.934030892 193.292515029 193.232658482 139.940662041
2025-02-02 214.655650417 198.081629367 198.081629367 193.50520504 193.447358655 140.116092699
2025-02-03 215.66102312 198.997110253 198.997110253 194.45708093 194.396106458 139.934356581
2025-02-04 218.253495109 200.867626741 200.867626741 196.334478044 196.274370643 141.281000185
2025-02-05 219.740057474 201.790304475 201.790304475 197.257864801 197.197132291 141.868639474
2025-02-06 220.228924315 202.139410115 202.139410115 197.573517756 197.513471329 141.827071091
2025-02-07 221.356069262 202.979077963 202.979077963 198.416927976 198.356596034 142.12649183
2025-02-08 221.432368437 202.777442 202.777442 198.260414324 198.199742304 142.199011789
2025-02-09 221.558070938 202.898401436 202.898401436 198.395950178 198.335699959 142.191510636
2025-02-10 221.541015812 202.999294225 202.999294225 198.514928088 198.454893397 142.323303749
2025-02-11 221.528619938 202.900110951 202.900110951 198.395209884 198.334719336 142.266481024
2025-02-12 221.728582295 203.025734471 203.025734471 198.507229405 198.447157633 142.417199851
2025-02-13 221.831821822 202.933284952 202.933284952 198.374307996 198.314023055 142.225869513
2025-02-14 222.317274381 203.440174349 203.440174349 198.857132699 198.797083127 142.413856453
2025-02-15 222.442768248 203.508818357 203.508818357 198.891482461 198.831811499 142.412375399
2025-02-16 222.626248591 203.561372853 203.561372853 198.943203667 198.883109997 142.412375399
2025-02-17 222.33259768 203.325550984 203.325550984 198.690364319 198.629900145 142.163336327
2025-02-18 222.235199822 203.000736606 203.000736606 198.354391386 198.294050552 142.066249126
2025-02-19 223.034510679 203.625001066 203.625001066 198.937958047 198.877678671 142.682643615
2025-02-20 222.893696779 203.753019379 203.753019379 199.012752346 198.952749533 142.752651764
2025-02-21 223.608305037 204.81633288 204.81633288 200.193426884 200.133761608 142.9514164
2025-02-22 223.239897545 204.765654045 204.765654045 200.096713149 200.03610162 142.951416393
2025-02-23 223.409161777 204.807051995 204.807051995 200.108235819 200.048381087 142.857128577
2025-02-24 222.96270393 203.918110282 203.918110282 199.292087893 199.231680035 142.667676864
2025-02-25 221.891691855 203.076434587 203.076434587 198.672305001 198.611866777 142.332418484
2025-02-26 221.237705166 202.642085243 202.642085243 198.342615385 198.282250415 142.23163581
2025-02-27 221.036222293 202.498595761 202.498595761 198.211980934 198.151662542 142.525896059
2025-02-28 221.962138302 203.417148265 203.417148265 199.071996213 199.011505665 142.586943414
2025-03-01 221.181848055 203.579428431 203.579428431 199.220941308 199.160329779 142.739869168
2025-03-02 221.219756096 203.558952579 203.558952579 199.162295067 199.102124272 142.684548875
2025-03-03 221.268883075 203.508475775 203.508475775 199.114911234 199.054475914 142.848550247
2025-03-04 221.799475608 203.856269403 203.856269403 199.449469865 199.389007868 142.862979376
2025-03-05 222.788927448 204.789962907 204.789962907 200.381167663 200.320774444 143.08671135
2025-03-06 223.034099014 204.829625523 204.829625523 200.411790427 200.351403741 143.108096504
2025-03-07 223.806171943 205.787022351 205.787022351 201.383754489 201.323349535 143.18541726
2025-03-08 223.885971478 205.816703093 205.816703093 201.416172584 201.355847054 143.2590427
2025-03-09 223.766698622 205.724215409 205.724215409 201.336778701 201.276390503 143.200297503
2025-03-10 223.528511892 205.481630266 205.481630266 201.205783871 201.145381276 143.300960349
2025-03-11 224.240569211 205.875444267 205.875444267 201.660955522 201.600578333 143.525244008
2025-03-12 224.48313015 206.372789788 206.372789788 202.15003445 202.089483411 143.678737175
2025-03-13 224.731987157 206.369039539 206.369039539 202.183769668 202.123341788 143.748815811
2025-03-14 225.263772886 206.730716367 206.730716367 202.525314411 202.46494811 143.836896633
2025-03-15 225.243098639 206.834182217 206.834182217 202.610113879 202.549958207 143.827259557
2025-03-16 225.217858266 206.767511812 206.767511812 202.541984679 202.48137315 143.825677336
2025-03-17 225.387713962 207.137221277 207.137221277 202.907984737 202.847710806 144.041499822
2025-03-18 225.522401657 207.244446641 207.244446641 203.001233471 202.940786355 144.100778448
2025-03-19 226.21500054 207.731634362 207.731634362 203.468091444 203.410139994 144.204251547
2025-03-20 225.893812918 207.513042002 207.513042002 203.291272227 203.233420933 143.883754562
2025-03-21 226.903135352 208.026288279 208.026288279 203.862556471 203.804953309 144.166459229
2025-03-22 227.860634714 208.014878634 208.014878634 203.851834481 203.794066496 144.217665673
2025-03-23 228.109478133 208.187671763 208.187671763 204.006250682 203.948442635 144.224155757
2025-03-24 228.9788695 208.59191297 208.59191297 204.273909376 204.216174564 144.459985751
2025-03-25 229.587156414 209.164182391 209.164182391 204.855407545 204.797456095 144.698008877
2025-03-26 229.706733617 209.37938213 209.37938213 205.061900256 205.003890913 144.839155508
2025-03-27 229.145343449 209.363735246 209.363735246 205.071664075 205.014024266 144.807717547
2025-03-28 228.66761594 208.897715838 208.897715838 204.755586414 204.697894154 144.457723251
2025-03-29 229.098757277 208.960341872 208.960341872 204.810317377 204.752474709 144.464659666
2025-03-30 228.929468612 209.07580373 209.07580373 204.922287927 204.864394371 144.616291852
2025-03-31 229.106097891 209.117995233 209.117995233 204.920155366 204.862321845 144.731665618
2025-04-01 229.228468801 209.127773937 209.127773937 204.899036898 204.841267929 144.727200008
2025-04-02 229.673073988 209.639082554 209.639082554 205.470497084 205.412669758 144.754922251
2025-04-03 229.841579989 209.803249801 209.803249801 205.635999989 205.578106433 144.734168751
2025-04-04 229.523889109 209.443538623 209.443538623 205.321622805 205.263613462 144.716239738
2025-04-05 229.071680811 209.435703368 209.435703368 205.28720132 205.229539164 144.655271475
2025-04-06 228.669605791 209.062206197 209.062206197 204.929967547 204.872155563 144.517737938
2025-04-07 228.61190099 209.112198849 209.112198849 205.003885482 204.946142739 144.751594183
2025-04-08 228.264114182 208.878143092 208.878143092 204.832683514 204.775059452 144.67028902
2025-04-09 228.419299669 209.035531592 209.035531592 204.995102715 204.937497295 144.975956402
2025-04-10 228.315034274 208.800754562 208.800754562 204.787284784 204.729043867 144.791330664

Note: The key identifies series in order from top to bottom.

Source: Llama Corp, DeFiLlama.

Return to text
Figure 4.6. Corporate bonds held by bond mutual funds increased in the second half of 2024

Billions of dollars (real)

Date Corporate Bonds
2000-03-31 404.714561867399
2000-06-30 400.699112934783
2000-09-30 384.720683073368
2000-12-31 351.533318031029
2001-03-31 360.058077526086
2001-06-30 363.349671648517
2001-09-30 359.089943656478
2001-12-31 443.321740849944
2002-03-31 454.635526175754
2002-06-30 505.304134732159
2002-09-30 487.890954211886
2002-12-31 488.642313302668
2003-03-31 493.882259132969
2003-06-30 543.7451270853
2003-09-30 548.973087765938
2003-12-31 539.579617883712
2004-03-31 585.364290207588
2004-06-30 504.490047664079
2004-09-30 505.852546582278
2004-12-31 518.096112967494
2005-03-31 491.134132129212
2005-06-30 494.62017041988
2005-09-30 458.62182031832
2005-12-31 458.09107690027
2006-03-31 471.201233699732
2006-06-30 454.385053854012
2006-09-30 455.637236952319
2006-12-31 480.027544564535
2007-03-31 485.738071749334
2007-06-30 475.520673542145
2007-09-30 461.81709381373
2007-12-31 449.352856242321
2008-03-31 437.801872547741
2008-06-30 461.936049493287
2008-09-30 425.043745169367
2008-12-31 392.092554182715
2009-03-31 413.714060068077
2009-06-30 483.949486167312
2009-09-30 544.736848774789
2009-12-31 622.053234439962
2010-03-31 717.373963625416
2010-06-30 724.336423485673
2010-09-30 811.601418127503
2010-12-31 931.407829704291
2011-03-31 975.181058016629
2011-06-30 978.038623099298
2011-09-30 887.896574096645
2011-12-31 925.566293933716
2012-03-31 1025.1147798865
2012-06-30 1046.61006829925
2012-09-30 1145.99052704772
2012-12-31 1213.60513461981
2013-03-31 1244.95858033799
2013-06-30 1256.1241939283
2013-09-30 1284.92153304201
2013-12-31 1332.31430969151
2014-03-31 1375.82486481794
2014-06-30 1412.16316941604
2014-09-30 1394.58327931632
2014-12-31 1426.76936847752
2015-03-31 1482.94288546983
2015-06-30 1470.53895985931
2015-09-30 1453.6007251995
2015-12-31 1376.72716224134
2016-03-31 1433.9676983595
2016-06-30 1467.62389408584
2016-09-30 1506.87191789793
2016-12-31 1472.85565337316
2017-03-31 1514.89554289189
2017-06-30 1516.40327652504
2017-09-30 1522.15675797288
2017-12-31 1484.97530221016
2018-03-31 1461.80171759296
2018-06-30 1452.54732849681
2018-09-30 1506.35342730749
2018-12-31 1412.01211032644
2019-03-31 1540.8960998247
2019-06-30 1558.94393069917
2019-09-30 1589.88278711709
2019-12-31 1586.5640006014
2020-03-31 1484.55669345504
2020-06-30 1827.53096582834
2020-09-30 1889.19937520259
2020-12-31 1909.51214320483
2021-03-31 1903.5405761261
2021-06-30 1931.9794290651
2021-09-30 1859.20764108761
2021-12-31 1800.68426886057
2022-03-31 1593.91292390141
2022-06-30 1339.57777692101
2022-09-30 1247.53041661166
2022-12-31 1250.33924375028
2023-03-31 1281.16169704362
2023-06-30 1267.67910699004
2023-09-30 1197.05597437062
2023-12-31 1246.08226569778
2024-03-31 1300.24190669065
2024-06-30 1276.85643221433
2024-09-30 1408.11677978313
2024-12-31 1415.52544459537

Note: The data show holdings of all U.S. corporate bonds by all U.S.-domiciled mutual funds (holdings of foreign bonds are excluded). The data are converted to constant 2024 dollars using the consumer price index.

Source: Federal Reserve Board staff estimates based on Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release Z.1, "Financial Accounts of the United States"; consumer price index, Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics.

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Figure 4.7. Assets held by bank loan and high-yield mutual funds have been trending up since late 2023

This is a stacked line chart titled "Assets held by bank loan and high-yield mutual funds have been trending up since late 2023". The x-axis measures time and ranges from 2000 to 2025. The data are monthly. The y-axis is given in billions of dollars (real) and ranges from 0 to 600 billion dollars. There are two variables plotted in this chart. The first variable, "Bank loan mutual funds", is shown in a dark red shaded area of the chart. The series starts off at around 30 billion dollars in 2000 and hovers around there until late 2001 when it begins a steady decline to around 20 billion by late 2003. From here the series sees a prolonged rise to about 50-60 billion dollars by mid-2007, after which it sees a steady decline to around 25 by early-2009. From there the series sees another period of steady growth until early-to-mid-2014, reaching its series peak just above 190 in March of 2014 before another period of decline, this time to around 115 billion dollars by mid-2016. The series then sees another period of growth, to around 160 billion dollars by mid-2018. The series then sees another drop to a sustained local minimum around 75 through 2020. The series then rises to around 130 billion dollars by mid-2022, after which the series declines to 80 billion dollars in mid-2023 and then remains flat through January 2025. The second variable, "High-yield bond mutual funds", is shown in the beige shaded portion of the chart. It starts around 205 billion dollars in 2000 and generally declines until late 2002, reaching a local minimum of around 150 billion dollars. From there, the series sees a marked increase to around 240 billion by early 2004, before gradually declining to around 150 billion dollars by late 2008. The series next sees a rapid increase over several years, reaching a series maximum of around 390 billion dollars by mid-2014. The series then declines steadily to around 250 billion dollars by early 2020, before seeing another marked increase to local peak of around 350 billion dollars in early 2021. The series then declines markedly to around 240 billion dollars at the end of 2022. The series remains around 240 billion until 2024 when an uptick begins that brings the series to around 260 billion by July 2024. There is another jump to around 270 billion in September 2024 that is sustained until another slight uptick to 274 billion in January 2025.

Note: The data are converted to constant 2025 dollars using the consumer price index. The key identifies series in order from top to bottom.

Source: Investment Company Institute; consumer price index, Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics.

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Figure 4.8. Mutual fund flows remained subdued through February

This is a stacked bar chart titled "Mutual fund flows remained subdued through February". The x-axis measures time and ranges from 2017 to 2025. The data are monthly. The y-axis is in billions of dollars and ranges from negative 150 billion to 150 billion. There are three variables plotted on the chart. The first, "Investment-grade bond mutual funds", is shown in blue. The series starts at 5 billion in January 2017 and rises until March 2017 to 18 billion. It then oscillates within the range of 0 to 15 billion until September 2018 aside from one peak in January 2018 at 22 billion. In October 2018, the series drops to negative 14 billion, further declining to -21 billion dollars in December 2018. It increases to 0 in January 2019 and generally rises to a local peak of 27 billion dollars in January 2020. In March 2020, it plummets to negative 89 billion dollars before returning to a range of 22 to 42 billion through the rest of 2020. The series decreases to 28 billion in February 2021 and then continues to decrease through May 2022 to a local minimum of negative 40 billion dollars. The series gradually increases, with fluctuations, to February 2024 at around 16 billion dollars. It then decreases again and oscillates before settling at 1 billion dollars. There is a steep increase to 20 billion dollars in October 2024 followed by a return to less than 10 billion for the following two months and then a decline to negative 3 billion in February 2025. The second variable, "Bank loan mutual funds" is represented in red. It begins around 3 billion and decreases through December 2017 to about negative 1 billion. It then increases steadily through June 2018 to about 2.5 billion dollars. It decreases to about negative 5 billion in November 2018 before dropping dramatically in December 2018 to about negative 13 billion. The variable recovers slowly through 2019 and ends at about negative 2.5 billion dollars in December 2019. In January 2020, it increases to around 0 before declining slightly in February and sharply to negative 11 billion in March and then hovers between negative 2 billion dollars and 0 through October 2020. The series turns positive again in January 2021 and then continues to increase to about 4 billion by April 2021. The series declined slightly to hover around 2 billion until increasing to its peak of about 8 billion in January 2022. The variable declined to around negative 5 billion in September 2022. The series then hovers around -5 billion until December 2022, increasing to just above zero in February 2024. Since then, it has oscillated between positive and negative values before settling just under negative 1 billion in September 2024. It has gradually increased since then to 2 billion in February 2025. The third variable, "High-yield bond mutual funds", is represented in beige. The bar begins around 700 million and decreases to around negative 7 billion in March 2017, staying negative or just barely above 0 through 2017. The series decreases significantly in February 2018 to 10 billion, and then increases to 1 billion dollars in April 2018. It decreased sharply to negative 3 billion in May 2018. The series then remains between negative 7 billion and positive 1 billion through January 2019, where it reaches about 3 billion. The series again oscillates between about negative 4 billion and positive 3 billion until February 2020. In March 2020, the series steeply declines to its lowest point around negative 10 billion dollars before rebounding to its peak of 12 billion in May 2020. The series declines to about negative 2 billion in September 2020 and fluctuates between about negative 5 billion and 3 billion through the end of 2021. The series remains mostly negative hovering around negative 3 billion through 2022 and fluctuates between slightly above and slightly below 0 in both 2023 and 2024, ending around positive 2 billion dollars in September 2024. It has fluctuated around 0 since then, ending at almost 1 billion in February 2025.

Note: Mutual fund assets under management as of February 2025 included $2,428 billion in investment-grade bond mutual funds, $276 billion in high-yield bond mutual funds, and $86 billion in bank loan mutual funds. Bank loan mutual funds, also known as floating-rate bond funds, are excluded from high-yield bond mutual funds.

Source: Investment Company Institute.

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Figure 4.9. Life insurers’ reliance on nontraditional liabilities for funding increased further in the second half of 2024

Billions of dollars (real)

Date Repurchase Agreements Securities lending cash collateral FHLB Advances Funding-Agreement Backed Securities
2006 4.83303747315986 213.952471006797 13.9408341036146 249.388460795291
2007 4.13691309400398 217.520956750085 25.1525242146722 257.392242785705
2008 12.0836405334099 72.8467290396583 50.1742029919573 243.537651082638
2009 14.8503403019096 55.6630034680471 66.2327974990977 173.313197240216
2010 14.7958605955594 60.8762639605103 61.3704704129741 135.09457638849
2011 Q1 8.58451136228944 65.4291078147316 61.4197000265442 120.382245913627
2011 Q2 9.45093440701393 64.4950610463521 60.3322114551281 113.85842121915
2011 Q3 9.51309256400812 61.7438045487331 60.3347642977788 105.996184687602
2011 Q4 9.87239010111451 59.0405674470318 60.8765113365895 105.727527672565
2012 Q1 11.2502860322505 58.0447945362515 62.0265354316512 101.967189616724
2012 Q2 14.5007532975889 66.5664962853386 66.1837631064718 103.666936655665
2012 Q3 15.4125443713195 75.2478756739931 65.7244228885927 104.956188189967
2012 Q4 15.3608684924635 73.470015066143 63.9254591204696 100.686201587183
2013 Q1 18.105997594507 73.2590164560654 64.7728121944446 99.6758303783865
2013 Q2 18.0452965131659 74.486425018638 65.9851062065942 89.1971742966762
2013 Q3 17.3773094144805 68.7459947983488 64.5978161525942 84.3598309699444
2013 Q4 15.5323168454692 75.5196671117388 65.6619750774198 81.9785360410395
2014 Q1 18.2806202478734 77.0417015058438 65.4333125990883 76.524104129996
2014 Q2 18.3200065871903 79.3589452612073 65.6942986048211 80.4557706450237
2014 Q3 20.1782206998332 83.2918444001222 66.1405225063724 84.1472307604849
2014 Q4 15.4155304041211 72.0589834822652 66.4860405338126 89.9357812396088
2015 Q1 14.8011058294753 72.5112933332977 69.6764272379937 93.2042668443824
2015 Q2 14.3305485956514 67.124870240119 70.9955981907455 90.9692901906334
2015 Q3 14.356580527897 66.6199587436132 72.5759646146576 85.5040601655872
2015 Q4 11.3992482415466 65.7041502983861 73.7585040203831 91.7064142452018
2016 Q1 13.8894936843525 68.3755566865593 77.5219727606874 89.8039863585442
2016 Q2 15.6521934712914 70.6888622020423 81.5657770630033 90.9015942123917
2016 Q3 16.6639658527202 72.0205526572794 84.8270062612956 91.0815178591203
2016 Q4 12.6321414918815 61.8981971844356 85.5331820130505 96.8372512737769
2017 Q1 16.6559328529123 65.1960674203987 88.3961792295315 98.2118023336602
2017 Q2 16.8891869450732 65.3154767045235 88.1240182011208 102.548820231272
2017 Q3 18.4745401127977 66.0768057751456 88.0125015247359 111.645207357842
2017 Q4 21.2439793525456 62.7007050681631 90.200496011552 108.951373966324
2018 Q1 20.9348791360417 65.8970786197454 96.0416341206106 111.381649440875
2018 Q2 23.2740570062317 57.4702606182466 95.3402147377625 102.39691597044
2018 Q3 22.6714679767755 58.3548987629393 93.5035394346923 112.356060878434
2018 Q4 22.5105600771863 52.1105704549995 96.5369473135642 109.613047127831
2019 Q1 21.7140108238299 56.4615060482633 98.8238124679716 113.378756229051
2019 Q2 20.4416881588743 55.9657914444444 97.7474393468789 111.353711965438
2019 Q3 19.4431061080956 55.9823159219707 101.241333661549 112.335200152555
2019 Q4 20.8927704433075 55.0252901364823 104.495444286035 114.558308935649
2020 Q1 22.7890919888317 52.1166674744435 123.170231435498 121.842685427484
2020 Q2 25.4451991865789 58.6427042955739 125.887260625039 127.934110092524
2020 Q3 25.1190707574524 57.7001736045126 121.47201113199 136.153999618013
2020 Q4 25.068448342549 58.3802454874711 122.185841907986 140.627890496878
2021 Q1 31.048563091715 62.4810001425572 131.074543182848 152.269329416127
2021 Q2 23.7223925592984 62.8977359013235 124.091887715279 166.869275383791
2021 Q3 21.0791755101046 67.9617770390611 119.991720078254 176.420091395418
2021 Q4 24.8411850824737 61.645801191109 121.721749828951 177.451408067302
2022 Q1 23.3737224598433 61.9085804485098 131.4186571938 189.821617061655
2022 Q2 23.6453880433046 51.9403957614822 134.598744569611 186.46697664337
2022 Q3 24.7501243734831 46.8829509719994 136.406292489802 183.342609487203
2022 Q4 26.257079600662 43.521729121173 136.950357441712 185.077484838069
2023 Q1 26.1533503280884 45.3460735858933 140.870414587349 185.331872308844
2023 Q2 24.1675928232946 38.0279517087918 139.657648405736 185.765935970028
2023 Q3 22.1702269406673 40.7205971608675 139.068797359184 188.268637278448
2023 Q4 24.8605974821633 41.1494517289088 138.581367653278 189.284014721675
2024 Q1 27.1175259040299 42.6872078465952 141.991471942026 201.764292725438
2024 Q2 25.6559869214555 40.5273097295633 146.865463133855 199.697834324111
2024 Q3 27.1003005824431 41.2841233461371 149.34187361931 211.399666391797
2024 Q4 27.617381969 46.537914371 152.79897283836 217.305548663107

Note: The data are converted to constant 2024 dollars using the consumer price index. FHLB is Federal Home Loan Bank. The data are annual from 2006 to 2010 and quarterly thereafter. The key identifies bars in order from top to bottom.

Source: Consumer price index, Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics; Moody's Analytics, Inc., CreditView, Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Program Index; Securities and Exchange Commission, Forms 10-Q and 10-K; National Association of Insurance Commissioners, quarterly and annual statutory filings accessed via S&P Global, Capital IQ Pro; Bloomberg Finance L.P.

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Figure 4.10. Life insurers continued to hold a significant share of risky and illiquid assets on their balance sheets

Billions of dollars (real)

Date Other ABS CRE loans CRE loans, securitized Alternative investments Illiquid corporate debt Illiquid corporate debt, securitized Share of life insurer assets (Percent share) Share of P&C insurer assets (Percent share)
2006 374.377543405973 413.614438596265 283.521479450567 207.416295155016 477.094622626508 15.1028206656925 33.013758456875 10.0702539945432
2007 394.909685766524 430.026897725225 318.954573889278 269.870313196068 479.27519771356 20.5727426573952 35.1134880570935 12.3562866632806
2008 373.770348450202 430.320879274793 313.855005213931 237.631370129517 487.082800562732 21.3790455811447 35.0532061408582 11.9257386906428
2009 333.355970300697 418.164312197695 316.352950007132 243.173932283063 494.522822698203 25.0580283979713 33.7839691964277 10.9595547772993
2010 291.291444873361 400.482930905805 265.477574451035 313.824753543146 510.215373927608 29.3442929550341 31.5441253470475 12.9041385571762
2011 288.600078937376 408.753140547529 248.746119460013 321.487117752981 511.145688948565 34.8533942481048 30.7560986031657 13.453161178184
2012 262.862680563797 416.835538529836 224.648718312833 337.239096235097 520.336099676532 43.0468100693241 30.6036267342776 13.4301468491112
2013 253.136412277223 433.753407541535 216.117079999337 360.31060330981 548.260831605387 57.5859168497438 30.5466552640441 14.9641950483356
2014 253.010100765696 449.346980800909 215.831386105086 386.412639872292 546.036960108073 83.8464189356406 31.0417287205222 14.8814078323242
2015 237.935485150544 482.957334654788 209.11424732647 375.571158154163 567.099764661896 98.6522184626055 31.102443503701 15.0258741505884
2016 242.013554112499 517.296108840116 201.043851398173 388.957645574673 593.533098259691 104.457584974002 31.1346834428411 15.1128471440659
2017 225.390564212743 550.430696631711 194.753710267971 415.241125309707 595.576117580708 113.29305909702 31.2471403784146 14.6806549087436
2018 220.136876281983 586.823215337208 205.302834893614 415.972721511961 575.055731695555 142.896511100387 32.5160821240398 14.8219443013517
2019 217.127867177809 636.687276529994 220.989534946295 454.481555875616 643.560068510474 168.753256097294 33.3308634347363 15.0823878172443
2020 211.820407737558 654.286834325819 231.218078813522 509.774906424955 740.307188976795 204.574551038944 34.1644821054147 16.1111559463092
2021 208.786516445498 649.879097660766 223.54691417481 556.054526720273 752.667237137073 230.178469647156 34.7950895358826 15.6100580360913
2022 200.728812586901 638.997965009903 209.715574644304 525.940406627321 765.154619997332 247.723216654287 36.688366817313 15.0940770554742
2023 229.443608799 641.707258852 192.703784626 507.038772953 757.929866262 258.513650443 37.1965178605611 13.7333547563985

Note: The data are converted to constant 2023 dollars using the consumer price index. Securitized products include collateralized loan obligations for corporate debt, private-label commercial mortgage-backed securities for commercial real estate (CRE), and private-label residential mortgage-backed securities and asset-backed securities (ABS) backed by autos, credit cards, consumer loans, and student loans for other ABS. Illiquid corporate debt includes private placements, bank and syndicated loans, and high-yield bonds. Alternative investments include assets filed under Schedule BA. P&C is property and casualty. The key identifies bars in order from top to bottom.

Source: Consumer price index, Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics; Federal Reserve Board staff estimates based on data from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and National Association of Insurance Commissioners Annual Statutory Filings.

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Figure A. Spring 2025: Most cited potential shocks over the next 12 to 18 months

Figure A: The chart is titled "Spring 2025: Most cited potential shocks over the next 12 to 18 months." The x-axis ranges from 0 to 80 percent and the data in each category is represented by blue bars showing the percentage of respondents. The categories on the left axis are listed in the following order from top to bottom: Risks to global trade at 73 percent, Policy uncertainty at 50 percent, U.S. fiscal debt sustainability at 50 percent, Persistent inflation; monetary tightening at 41 percent, Risk asset/valuations correction at 36 percent, Treasury market functioning at 27 percent, U.S. recession at 23 percent, Banking-sector stress at 23 percent, Geopolitical risks at 23 percent, Foreign divestment from U.S. assets at 23 percent, Private credit stress at 18 percent, Nonbank financial institution stress at 18 percent, Value of U.S. dollar at 14 percent, and Corporate credit stress at 14 percent.

Note: Responses are to the following question: "Over the next 12–18 months, which shocks, if realized, do you think would have the greatest negative effect on the functioning of the U.S. financial system?"

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey of 22 market contacts from February to early April.

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Figure B. Fall 2024: Most cited potential shocks over the next 12 to 18 months

Figure B: The chart is titled "Fall 2024: Most cited potential shocks over the next 12 to 18 months." The x-axis ranges from 0 to 70 percent and the data in each category is represented by blue bars showing the percentage of respondents. The categories on the left axis are listed in the following order from top to bottom: U.S. fiscal debt sustainability at 54 percent, Middle East tensions at 46 percent, Policy uncertainty at 46 percent, U.S. recession at 38 percent, Risks to global trade at 33 percent, Persistent inflation; monetary tightening at 33 percent, Risk asset/valuations correction at 29 percent, Chinese economic weakness at 25 percent, Cyberattacks at 25 percent, Russia – Ukraine war at 25 percent, Banking sector stress at 25 percent, Market liquidity strains and volatility at 25 percent, and Commercial and residential real estate at 21 percent.

Note: Responses are to the following question: "Over the next 12–18 months, which shocks, if realized, do you think would have the greatest negative effect on the functioning of the U.S. financial system?"

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey of 24 market contacts from August to October.

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Last Update: September 19, 2025