Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - G.17

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: Bibliography 1996–Present

This page provides additional techincal resources and articles beyond those provided across the website.

Technical References (in reverse chronological order):

Bayard, Kimberly, Ryan Decker, and Charles Gilbert (2017). "Natural Disasters and the Measurement of Industrial Production: Hurricane Harvey, a Case Study," FEDS Notes. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, October 11, 2017, https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2086.

  • The Federal Reserve's G.17 release on industrial production (IP) and capacity utilization published on September 15, 2017, included one of the first estimates of the impact on a specific measure of economic activity by Hurricane Harvey, which made landfall in Texas on August 25. As reported in the release, total industrial production fell 0.9 percent in August, most of which (about 3/4 percentage point) could be accounted for by storm-related outages. It is instructive to understand how the monthly IP indexes are estimated in light of massive disruptions, and how the effect of those disruptions is measured.

Bayard, Kimberly, David Byrne, Charles Gilbert, and Justin Pierce. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: Addendum to the 2015 Annual Revision. (PDF) Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (December 2015).

  • On July 21, 2015, the Federal Reserve published revisions to its index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity utilization. The press release that accompanied the revised estimates described both the results and the technical aspects of the revision. This addendum provides (1) additional information on the revised capacity utilization estimates for the printing and support industry, (2) an overview of the methodological changes to the IP estimates for selected high-technology industries, (3) a description of the change in source data for capacity for the fertilizer industry, (4) an elaboration on the conversion of the IP indexes to the 2012 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) and the effects of that conversion on the benchmarking process for some industries, and (5) a table of mappings between the pre-revision and post-revision IP and capacity indexes for those industries affected by the incorporation of the 2012 NAICS.

Pierce, Justin. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: The 2013 Annual Revision. (PDF) Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (February 2014).

  • On March 22, 2013, the Federal Reserve published revisions to its index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization. Measured from fourth quarter to fourth quarter, total IP was reported to have increased 0.7 percentage point less in 2011 than was previously published. The revisions to IP for other years were smaller: Compared with the previous estimates, IP fell slightly less in 2008 and 2009 and increased slightly less in 2010 and 2012. Notably, benchmark data from the U.S. Census Bureau's Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM) for 2011 implied that factory production increased more slowly in 2011 than previously reported. The gains in factory output would have been even slower if not for upward revisions to the production of high-technology goods. Output indexes for high-technology goods that were stronger than previously reported contributed positively to the rates of change in total output in every year since 2008.

Pierce, Justin. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: The 2012 Annual Revision. (PDF) Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (February 2014).

  • On March 30, 2012, the Federal Reserve published revisions to its index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization. Revisions were minor and the overall contour of total IP was little changed. In particular, a decline of 17 percent from December 2007 to June 2009 was followed by steady gains beginning in the second half of 2009 and continuing through early 2012. Measured from fourth quarter to fourth quarter, total IP was reported to have dropped about 1/4 percentage point more in 2009, while its gains in both 2010 and 2011 were essentially unchanged from what was previously reported. From the trough of the most recent recession in June 2009 through February 2012, total IP reversed about three-fourths of its peak-to-trough decline.

Gilbert, Charles Recessions and Seasonal Adjustment of Industrial Production (PDF), presented at the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Washington D.C. (May 11, 2012).

Otoo, Maria. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: The 2010 Annual Revision. (PDF) Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (April 2011).

  • On June 25, 2010, the Federal Reserve published revisions to its index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization. Although rates of change from January 1972 through May 2010 were affected, the overall contour of total IP in recent years was little changed by the revision.

Hall, Anne. "Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: The 2009 Annual Revision," (PDF) Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 95 (August 2009), pp. A125–A145.

  • On March 27, 2009, the Federal Reserve published revisions to its index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization. Although rates of change from January 1972 through February 2009 were affected, the revision had its largest impact on data in 2007 and 2008.

Bayard, Kimberly, and Charles Gilbert. "Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: The 2008 Annual Revision," (PDF) Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 94 (August 2008), pp. A41–A60.

  • On March 28, 2008, the Federal Reserve published revisions to its index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization. Although the revision affected the data from January 1972 through February 2008, most of the changes were for the period beginning in 2003.

Byrne, David, and Carol Corrado. "Prices for Communications Equipment: Updating and Revisiting the Record," unpublished Federal Reserve Board paper (July 2007).

Gilbert, Charles, and Maria Otoo. "Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: The 2006 Annual Revision," (PDF) Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 93 (May 2007), pp. A17–A35.

  • On December 11, 2006, the Federal Reserve published revisions to its index of industrial production and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization. The revision affected the data from 1972 through October 2006, but the largest changes were for the period beginning in 2003.

Bayard, Kimberly, and Charles Gilbert. "Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: The 2005 Annual Revision (PDF)," Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 92 (March 2006), pp. A39–A58.

  • The comparison base year for all industrial production (IP) and capacity indexes was changed: The indexes are now expressed as percentages of output in 2002 instead of 1997. The rebasing affects all series from their start dates: 1919 for total IP and manufacturing IP, 1948 for manufacturing capacity, and 1967 for total industrial capacity. With this revision, the monthly production indicators for twenty industries changed from electric power use to production-worker hours for 1997 to the present.

Morin, Norman, and John Stevens. "Diverging Measures of Capacity Utilization: An Explanation," Business Economics, vol. 40 (October 2005), no. 4, pp. 46-54.

Morin, Norman, and John Stevens. "Estimating Capacity Utilization from Survey Data (PDF)," IFC Bulletin, vol. 20 (April 2005), pp. 42-61.

Bayard, Kimberly, and Charles Gilbert. "Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: The 2004 Annual Revision (PDF)," Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 91 (Winter 2005), pp. 9–25.

  • The benchmark indexes for manufacturing, defined for each six-digit NAICS industry as nominal gross output divided by a price index, were modified in this revision. With this revision, the monthly individual production indicators for some series have changed. The source data for eleven industries were switched from electric power use to production-worker hours. The revision to the capacity indexes used updated information for the publishing industry, for which there had been a gap in the collection of operating rates.

Bayard, Kimberly, and Norman Morin. "Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: The 2003 Annual Revision (PDF)," Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 90 (Winter 2004), pp. 32–46.

  • This revision included a rearrangement of the market groups based on the 1997 input-output tables recently issued by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as well as updated value-added weights used in aggregating individual indexes.

Papers presented at American Statistical Association meeting in August 2003. These papers describe the staff's work to convert the industrial production index from an SIC basis to a NAICS basis, the extension of the NAICS-based results back to 1972, and an analysis of the results.

Corrado, Carol. "Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: The 2002 Historical and Annual Revision (PDF)," Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 89 (April 2003), pp. 151–176.

  • This major revision incorporated the reclassification back to 1972 of production and capacity indexes for individual industries from the Standard Industrial Classification System to the North American Industry Classification System. In addition, production and capacity indexes are now expressed as percentages of output in 1997; previously the reference year was 1992. Improved methods for measuring the real output of communications equipment also were introduced.

Doms, Mark. "Communications Equipment: What Has Happened to Prices?" presented at the NBER/CRIW Conference, Measuring Capital in the New Economy, Federal Reserve Board (April 2002).

Corrado, Carol, Charles Gilbert, and Norman Morin. "Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: The 2001 Annual Revision (PDF)," Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 88 (March 2002), pp. 173–187.

  • Introduces new source data for two capacity series: natural gas extraction and silver. The monthly production indicators for construction machinery and original equipment motor vehicle parts were refined.

Bansak, Cynthia, Norman Morin, and Martha Starr-McCluer. "Technology, Capital Spending, and Capacity Utilization," presented at the meeting of the Allied Social Science Association, New Orleans (January 2002).

Doms, Mark, and Christopher Forman. "Price Indexes for LAN Equipment," presented at the CRIW workshop on Price Measurement at the NBER Summer Institute (July 2001).

Greenspan, Alan. "The Challenge of Measuring and Modeling a Dynamic Economy," presented at the Washington Economic Policy Conference of the National Association for Business Economics, Washington, D.C. (March 27, 2001).

Corrado, Carol. "Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: The 2000 Annual Revision (PDF)," Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 87 (March 2001), pp. 132–148.

  • Includes a brief description of data sources and methods for compiling monthly IP. A technical note explaining how the newly introduced production series for LAN equipment was derived and a table showing the results for the new series are provided. A refinement of the aggregation method introduced in the 1996 revision, a new series for the production of drugs and medicines, the introduction of improved source data for series for the production of computer printers and bearings, and a modification to the definitions of advanced-processing and primary-processing industries are also reviewed.

Aizcorbe, Ana, Carol Corrado, and Mark Doms. "Constructing Price and Quantity Indexes for High-Technology Goods," presented at the CRIW workshop on Price Measurement at the NBER Summer Institute (July 2000).

Gilbert, Charles, Norman Morin, and Richard Raddock. "Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: Recent Developments and the 1999 Revision (PDF)," Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 86 (March 2000), pp. 188–205.

  • Includes a review of improved methods and models used to estimate capacity and capacity utilization. Refinements to the methods for calculating the capacity series for motor vehicles and semiconductor are also discussed.

Estevao, Marcello, and Saul Lach. "Measuring Temporary Labor Outsourcing in U.S. Manufacturing," (PDF) Federal Reserve Board Finance and Economic Discussion Series, 1999–57 (October 1999).

Gilbert, Charles, and Richard Raddock. "Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: 1998 Annual Revision (PDF)," Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 85 (January 1999), pp. 20–33.

  • Includes a description of new methods and new source data for measuring the output of the semiconductor industry and the output of the coal industry.

Raddock, Richard. "Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: Annual Revision and 1997 Developments (PDF)," Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 84 (February 1998), pp. 77–91.

  • Includes a description of a redesigned series measuring oil and gas field services.

Corrado, Carol, and Joe Mattey. "Capacity Utilization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 11 (Winter 1997), pp. 151–67.

Corrado, Carol, Charles Gilbert, and Richard Raddock. "Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: Historical Revision and Recent Developments (PDF)," Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 83 (February 1997), pp. 67–92.

  • Reviews the introduction of new aggregation methods for IP and Capacity; a technical note on aggregation of production and capacity utilization and a description of the derivation of weights for the current year are provided. The introduction of new source data for two equipment series, farm and construction and mining equipment, and for stone, sand, and gravel mining, as well as refinements to other individual production or capacity series are reviewed. The article contains an appendix on a major revision of the electric power data.

Raddock, Richard. "A Revision to Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, 1991–95 (PDF)," Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 82 (January 1996), pp. 16–25.

  • Reviews the incorporation of new source data for the production of organic chemicals, service industry machinery, and plumbing and heating products.

Koenig, Evan F. "Capacity Utilization as a Real-Time Predictor of Manufacturing Output (PDF)," Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, Q III 1996, pp. 16–23.

Mohr, Michael, and Charles Gilbert. "Capital Stock Estimates for Manufacturing Industries: Methods and Data (PDF)." Industrial Output Section, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, March 1996.

  • This paper documents the methods and source data used by Federal Reserve Board staff to estimate U.S. manufactures' real net capital stocks of equipment and structures. The estimates, which begin in 1958 and cover 164 detailed manufacturing industries, are developed by the perpetual inventory method from investment data. Conceptually, the measures are designed to represent the available productive capability of the manufacturing capital stock; in developing the net stocks, each vintage of investment is adjusted for expected losses in efficiency owing to the joint effects of discards and economic decay.


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Last Update: March 16, 2026