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Release Date: December 15, 2017
Table 15 Industrial Production: Reliability Estimates
Seasonally adjusted
Sector Annualized
Change
2012=100 Percent change
2017 2017 2017
Q2 Q3 June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov.
       
Total index      
85th percentile 5.63 -.42 105.25 105.17 104.76 105.12 106.47 106.80 .18 -.08 -.35 .44 1.45 .54
Current estimate 5.63 -.87 105.25 105.12 104.65 104.92 106.15 106.40 .18 -.13 -.45 .26 1.17 .24
15th percentile 5.63 -1.20 105.25 105.06 104.54 104.75 105.91 106.01 .18 -.18 -.54 .14 .95 -.05
       
  Manufacturing (SIC)      
85th percentile 2.60 -1.48 103.52 103.25 103.11 103.37 104.94 105.26 .10 -.27 -.09 .29 1.60 .46
Current estimate 2.60 -1.96 103.52 103.18 102.99 103.18 104.65 104.84 .10 -.33 -.18 .19 1.43 .18
15th percentile 2.60 -2.30 103.52 103.12 102.88 102.99 104.40 104.42 .10 -.39 -.29 .07 1.27 -.12
       
  Mining      
85th percentile 10.39 6.39 109.49 110.07 108.94 111.00 110.82 113.23 1.29 .54 -.90 2.17 .17 2.88
Current estimate 10.39 5.21 109.49 109.91 108.61 110.42 109.71 111.88 1.29 .39 -1.19 1.66 -.64 1.97
15th percentile 10.39 3.86 109.49 109.80 108.27 109.78 108.57 110.35 1.29 .29 -1.50 1.23 -1.33 1.07
       
  Electric and gas utilities      
85th percentile 23.22 -.42 103.51 104.08 102.86 102.11 105.37 103.36 -.86 .55 -1.15 -.43 3.80 -.09
Current estimate 23.22 -1.51 103.51 104.06 102.81 101.48 103.56 101.64 -.86 .53 -1.20 -1.29 2.04 -1.85
15th percentile 23.22 -2.44 103.51 104.05 102.73 101.12 102.38 100.64 -.86 .52 -1.28 -1.52 .74 -3.35
       

The reliability measures show the likely range of values for the IP indexes after their fifth and final monthly revision. The 15th (85th) percentile estimate is equal to the current estimate plus an amount such that the equivalent measure revised by a lower (higher) amount for only 15 percent of the months since 2008. More information is available at https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/g17_technical_qa.htm#reliability.


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Last Update: December 15, 2017