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Release Date: April 18, 2017
Table 15 Industrial Production: Reliability Estimates
Seasonally adjusted
Sector Annualized
Change
2012=100 Percent change
2016
Q4
2017
Q1
2016 2017 2016 2017
Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar.
                             
Total index                            
85th percentile .97 2.54 103.17 103.04 103.88 103.69 103.88 104.50 .18 -.13 .87 -.10 .35 .87
Current estimate .74 1.53 103.17 102.98 103.77 103.47 103.53 104.10 .18 -.19 .77 -.29 .06 .55
15th percentile .54 .71 103.17 102.91 103.66 103.29 103.28 103.71 .18 -.25 .67 -.41 -.17 .24
                             
Manufacturing (SIC)                            
85th percentile 1.96 3.69 102.21 102.48 102.72 103.15 103.61 103.37 .18 .27 .26 .48 .52 -.09
Current estimate 1.67 2.65 102.21 102.42 102.59 102.97 103.33 102.94 .18 .20 .17 .37 .35 -.38
15th percentile 1.49 1.68 102.21 102.36 102.46 102.77 103.07 102.51 .18 .14 .05 .24 .19 -.68
                             
Mining                            
85th percentile 7.23 15.49 102.35 102.49 102.15 103.75 107.27 107.44 2.05 .14 -.18 1.77 3.76 1.02
Current estimate 6.65 12.06 102.35 102.32 101.82 103.10 106.07 106.17 2.05 -.03 -.49 1.25 2.89 .09
15th percentile 6.10 9.70 102.35 102.19 101.50 102.50 105.01 104.92 2.05 -.15 -.85 .80 2.28 -.82
                             
Electric and gas utilities                            
85th percentile -11.30 -13.12 102.67 99.35 106.21 99.61 95.03 103.06 -1.88 -3.23 6.92 -5.79 -4.03 10.42
Current estimate -11.42 -17.72 102.67 99.33 106.15 98.96 93.24 101.28 -1.88 -3.25 6.86 -6.77 -5.78 8.62
15th percentile -11.57 -19.84 102.67 99.31 106.06 98.60 92.04 100.25 -1.88 -3.27 6.79 -7.00 -7.17 6.86
                             

The reliability measures show the likely range of values for the IP indexes after their fifth and final monthly
revision. The 15th (85th) percentile estimate is equal to the current estimate plus an amount such that the
equivalent measure revised by a lower (higher) amount for only 15 percent of the months since 2008. More
information is available at https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/g17_technical_qa.htm


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Last Update: April 18, 2017