Federal Reserve Seasonal Factors for Motor Vehicle Sales

Release Date: July 31, 2018

The Federal Reserve Board has re-estimated seasonal factors for new motor vehicle sales, using data through April 2018. These factors are estimated once per year using X13-ARIMA. The factors will be revised again in the summer of 2019.

The Federal Reserve Board provides seasonal factors for cars and light trucks to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) for use in the National Income and Product Accounts. The BEA has posted on their website seasonal factors for motor vehicle sales from January 1967 (January 1976 for foreign light trucks) through June 2019. These factors are available for download here (XLSX). A Technical Q&A with details on the calculation of the seasonal factors for light vehicles is available here.

The table below shows the Federal Reserve seasonal factors for monthly motor vehicle sales. For cars and light trucks, these are essentially the same seasonal factors that are available from the BEA extended through December 2020. For completed calendar years, the seasonal factors posted by the BEA may vary slightly from the factors posted here, reflecting small adjustments to align annual totals of the seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted data. The extended projections of the seasonal factors are prone to larger revisions each year than are the seasonal factor projections for months closer to the end of the data sample. A comma-delimited text file containing the monthly seasonal factors is available for download here (CSV).

Monthly Seasonal Factors for Motor Vehicle Sales

 
 
Domestic
Autos
Foreign
Autos
Domestic
Light Trucks
Foreign
Light Trucks
Domestic
Heavy Trucks
Foreign
Heavy Trucks
Jan-2013  81.18  78.20  80.99  84.68  90.00  61.85
Feb-2013  96.06  87.19  91.66  90.46  87.12  69.12
Mar-2013 119.53 116.64 107.51 114.43 103.23  97.49
Apr-2013 102.85 102.38  97.98  93.53 100.71  98.94
May-2013 116.25 110.83 109.85 104.37 102.85 116.45
Jun-2013 108.93 105.96 105.34 101.39 102.38 120.67
Jul-2013  98.33 104.38 100.14 102.33 101.25 108.19
Aug-2013 116.67 114.02 116.44 120.10 100.31 103.01
Sep-2013  85.19  90.93  87.51  88.30  96.90  92.79
Oct-2013  90.44  92.05  97.59  95.73 107.07  96.27
Nov-2013  90.92  96.87  97.04 100.83  92.33  88.45
Dec-2013  96.40 102.74 111.91 106.93 114.94 144.53
Jan-2014  80.63  79.28  79.51  84.49  89.21  61.34
Feb-2014  96.24  87.41  91.53  90.44  87.44  69.47
Mar-2014 116.81 113.27 105.39 111.09 104.08  94.73
Apr-2014 104.73 103.54 100.14  95.26 100.98 101.49
May-2014 121.41 114.05 113.61 109.53  99.95 110.16
Jun-2014 101.24 100.73  99.17  94.98 105.17 125.12
Jul-2014 101.16 105.32 103.89 104.69 101.06 108.16
Aug-2014 113.24 112.38 112.03 117.23  97.99 100.41
Sep-2014  88.01  92.13  90.45  90.79 100.35  95.28
Oct-2014  90.09  93.43  96.30  95.93 106.35  97.93
Nov-2014  89.74  95.28  95.81  98.40  89.48  83.98
Dec-2014  98.79 106.44 113.97 109.98 118.87 153.95
Jan-2015  84.75  80.88  83.07  87.66  86.04  56.25
Feb-2015  96.10  87.45  91.44  90.36  87.70  70.41
Mar-2015 112.06 109.23 102.32 106.11 105.72  97.51
Apr-2015 103.58 102.82 100.73  94.95 101.90 103.81
May-2015 117.44 112.32 109.06 107.30  97.03 105.57
Jun-2015 104.49 101.92 102.20  97.74 108.19 127.32
Jul-2015 100.24 106.34 102.38 104.58 100.90 107.70
Aug-2015 104.65 107.64 103.24 111.59  99.58  99.41
Sep-2015  95.77  95.04  98.96  94.97 100.96  97.59
Oct-2015  94.83  96.60  99.82 100.54 102.90  93.15
Nov-2015  84.45  91.73  90.60  92.20  91.60  86.34
Dec-2015 106.35 112.55 120.96 117.92 118.26 159.77
Jan-2016  78.89  77.06  78.48  81.57  82.76  53.02
Feb-2016  95.77  87.46  91.39  90.25  92.04  73.72
Mar-2016 117.68 111.93 108.91 110.76 109.09 104.10
Apr-2016 106.81 107.02 102.05  99.29  98.59  98.25
May-2016 110.12 105.52 103.88 100.62 100.07 105.64
Jun-2016 106.90 103.30 105.32 100.23 109.23 131.28
Jul-2016 102.19 108.08 102.07 106.67  94.90  95.61
Aug-2016 103.24 105.71 102.74 109.33 105.61 108.99
Sep-2016  95.74  95.95  99.21  95.23 100.33 100.56
Oct-2016  90.50  93.00  94.40  95.57 100.49  87.64
Nov-2016  90.12  95.19  96.02  96.99  94.40  89.58
Dec-2016 104.17 111.72 118.03 115.52 114.54 157.00
Jan-2017  78.53  77.02  78.63  81.32  85.00  52.43
Feb-2017  95.30  87.27  91.40  90.06  87.90  71.38
Mar-2017 116.08 113.08 107.45 110.44 108.53 107.57
Apr-2017 103.61 103.64 100.18  96.75  96.16  94.05
May-2017 112.72 107.08 106.18 103.18 103.75 110.57
Jun-2017 106.91 104.36 104.48 100.82 107.97 130.40
Jul-2017 100.14 104.96 100.31 103.82  96.07  90.96
Aug-2017 106.52 106.99 106.73 112.02 105.59 111.00
Sep-2017 100.05  99.48 101.36  99.47  98.01  97.57
Oct-2017  87.36  90.11  91.87  91.60 102.19  90.08
Nov-2017  90.42  95.51  96.81  96.99  94.97  90.84
Dec-2017 101.47 111.02 113.63 112.86 110.69 152.14
Jan-2018  80.05  78.12  80.70  83.00  88.19  54.42
Feb-2018  94.99  87.06  91.45  89.98  88.10  71.06
Mar-2018 121.14 116.52 111.35 115.28 105.47 102.65
Apr-2018  96.12  98.58  94.33  90.44  98.62  97.33
May-2018 116.15 108.36 110.09 105.97 103.47 112.08
Jun-2018 111.37 108.01 106.48 105.36 105.42 124.76
Jul-2018  96.52 101.18  97.52  99.51  97.86  91.56
Aug-2018 105.54 108.26 105.30 112.02 105.40 113.89
Sep-2018  98.03  96.93  99.62  96.89  95.66  94.06
Oct-2018  89.80  91.83  94.28  93.61 105.68  94.34
Nov-2018  90.62  96.96  96.17  97.39  94.05  89.97
Dec-2018 101.76 110.24 114.48 112.73 111.74 150.27
Jan-2019  80.41  77.75  81.99  83.14  87.93  54.74
Feb-2019  94.79  86.93  91.54  89.90  88.41  70.60
Mar-2019 117.26 114.98 107.05 112.10 102.37  99.03
Apr-2019  99.10  99.81  97.34  92.78 101.30 100.48
May-2019 115.01 109.67 108.35 106.37 103.14 114.47
Jun-2019 108.69 104.93 104.47 102.71 102.80 118.94
Jul-2019  98.91 102.60  99.83 101.73 101.15  95.35
Aug-2019 117.15 113.21 116.48 119.55 102.34 107.87
Sep-2019  86.41  91.22  87.96  88.62  98.40  96.97
Oct-2019  92.68  93.22  98.25  95.86 105.03  95.87
Nov-2019  94.75 100.81  98.12 101.63  92.03  85.34
Dec-2019  97.80 106.82 112.22 108.26 114.14 156.19
Jan-2020  79.79  78.83  80.31  83.36  87.54  55.62
Feb-2020 101.53  91.12  97.20  96.22  90.42  70.21
Mar-2020 110.07 108.02 102.22 104.49 105.54  99.84
Apr-2020 101.29 101.00 100.41  94.72 102.08 105.12
May-2020 116.89 111.64 107.94 108.78  96.88 104.31
Jun-2020 104.48 101.24 101.50  98.49 108.53 125.70
Jul-2020 100.94 105.28 102.24 104.28 100.31  98.73
Aug-2020 104.89 107.37 103.26 111.01  99.96 101.43
Sep-2020  96.92  95.44  99.13  95.20 101.39 101.62
Oct-2020  96.31  97.62 100.60 100.27 101.85  92.73
Nov-2020  86.46  93.71  90.83  92.49  92.38  83.12
Dec-2020 107.46 115.32 121.30 119.00 118.35 167.70

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Last Update: July 31, 2018