Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - G.17

Federal Reserve Seasonal Factors for Auto and Truck Sales

Release Date: July 30, 2015

The Federal Reserve Board estimates seasonal factors for new light vehicle sales and provides these factors to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) for use in the national income and product accounts. These factors are estimated once per year using X12-ARIMA and were last estimated in summer 2015, using vehicle sales data through April 2015. The seasonal factors for months that had not yet occurred were based on projections from the X12-ARIMA program. The factors will be revised again in summer 2016.

With their summer 2015 annual revision, the BEA will post on their website the seasonal factors for light vehicle sales from January 1967 (January 1976 for foreign light trucks) through June 2016. These factors are available for download here.

The table below shows essentially the same seasonal factors for light vehicles that are available from the BEA extended through December 2017. For completed calendar years, the seasonal factors for light vehicles posted by BEA may vary slightly from the factors posted here, reflecting small adjustments that align the seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted sales totals. Seasonal factors for sales of medium and heavy trucks, which are not used by BEA, are also shown in the table.

The extended projections of the seasonal factors are prone to larger revisions each year than are the seasonal factor projections for months closer to the end of the data sample. A comma-delimited text file containing the monthly seasonal factors is available for download here.

Monthly Seasonal Factors for Auto and Truck Sales

 
 
Domestic
Autos
Foreign
Autos
Domestic
Light Trucks
Foreign
Light Trucks
Domestic
Heavy Trucks
Foreign
Heavy Trucks
Jan-2012  78.86  76.49  77.17  83.48  87.28  59.75
Feb-2012  96.99  88.30  94.74  94.00  91.29  72.39
Mar-2012 122.66 121.24 113.21 119.99 105.96 101.37
Apr-2012 101.23  99.51  95.98  91.77  97.35  96.02
May-2012 118.27 111.79 112.20 105.61 103.42 115.55
Jun-2012 112.54 109.35 106.91 103.43 104.49 126.67
Jul-2012  96.34 103.65  97.12  98.99  97.54 109.60
Aug-2012 107.84 110.50 108.61 110.76 101.95 105.35
Sep-2012  94.79  96.17  97.05  96.19  93.80  88.33
Oct-2012  86.84  89.74  93.16  91.14 110.57  94.49
Nov-2012  86.16  91.41  93.55  96.88  94.66  91.15
Dec-2012  98.98 104.26 113.57 109.53 113.06 136.78
Jan-2013  81.84  79.19  80.98  86.83  90.04  63.09
Feb-2013  95.20  86.54  91.58  91.84  86.67  67.85
Mar-2013 118.73 117.33 107.88 115.57 102.23  96.40
Apr-2013 103.83 101.70  97.76  94.90  99.98  98.47
May-2013 116.86 110.86 110.85 105.83 103.08 119.01
Jun-2013 110.61 106.89 106.44  99.76 101.98 121.81
Jul-2013  98.29 105.92 100.01 101.46 102.01 116.40
Aug-2013 114.80 117.11 113.49 118.27  99.59 100.66
Sep-2013  86.95  88.79  90.02  87.96  97.10  90.18
Oct-2013  90.04  92.68  97.51  94.70 110.01  95.93
Nov-2013  88.07  93.35  94.52  98.37  91.80  87.77
Dec-2013  97.01 102.92 112.92 107.59 114.92 139.07
Jan-2014  80.33  77.92  77.74  86.34  89.22  63.41
Feb-2014  95.37  86.79  91.36  91.95  86.67  68.56
Mar-2014 116.99 115.13 107.16 111.78 103.09  94.08
Apr-2014 105.83 103.74 100.66  97.29 100.25 100.35
May-2014 120.75 114.11 113.67 109.32 100.36 112.81
Jun-2014 104.60 101.31 100.95  94.36 104.77 126.64
Jul-2014 101.86 109.62 104.78 105.69 101.89 118.14
Aug-2014 110.80 112.82 108.41 113.37  97.14  97.19
Sep-2014  89.08  91.01  91.76  91.17 100.61  91.60
Oct-2014  89.20  91.88  95.92  94.77 109.53  98.17
Nov-2014  87.02  91.78  94.15  94.88  88.88  83.91
Dec-2014  98.60 105.75 113.49 111.20 118.87 147.15
Jan-2015  83.86  80.32  81.65  88.04  86.21  58.75
Feb-2015  95.29  86.94  91.22  91.89  86.61  69.70
Mar-2015 113.33 112.16 103.54 109.37 104.57  96.01
Apr-2015 106.60 104.49 103.54  98.07 101.00 102.54
May-2015 115.98 109.87 108.42 105.21  97.59 107.92
Jun-2015 107.61 104.01 103.11  97.78 107.97 128.85
Jul-2015 100.84 109.03 103.28 105.93 101.62 120.14
Aug-2015 106.51 107.49 105.97 105.62  98.88  96.51
Sep-2015  93.33  95.57  96.27  96.77 101.13  93.17
Oct-2015  92.49  94.38  97.96  97.68 106.40  93.24
Nov-2015  82.72  87.39  89.31  89.73  90.87  86.81
Dec-2015 104.42 112.24 119.51 117.37 118.09 150.84
Jan-2016  79.36  75.96  77.39  83.02  83.07  55.58
Feb-2016  95.02  86.98  91.10  91.72  90.64  73.49
Mar-2016 119.56 118.68 112.10 116.85 107.63 102.52
Apr-2016 107.58 105.67 101.75 100.77  97.63  96.47
May-2016 110.50 104.54 104.26  99.50 100.95 108.41
Jun-2016 111.49 107.75 109.44 101.21 108.80 133.61
Jul-2016 100.86 108.65 100.89 105.08  95.86 107.32
Aug-2016 106.05 107.21 105.68 105.93 104.93 105.16
Sep-2016  93.94  96.51  96.45  98.41 100.08  95.75
Oct-2016  87.73  88.65  92.58  90.41 104.54  88.07
Nov-2016  87.14  91.81  93.86  95.14  93.56  90.34
Dec-2016 102.38 110.21 115.66 114.17 114.08 147.11
Jan-2017  79.08  75.76  77.46  82.88  85.72  55.65
Feb-2017  94.66  86.76  91.12  91.57  86.16  71.01
Mar-2017 117.87 118.12 110.89 117.14 106.61 105.78
Apr-2017 105.38 102.96 101.19  97.47  95.34  91.81
May-2017 113.00 107.13 107.46 102.11 104.86 114.41
Jun-2017 111.35 108.09 106.83 102.34 107.38 132.63
Jul-2017  99.43 106.50 100.30 101.41  97.43 104.24
Aug-2017 110.42 111.37 110.89 110.58 104.65 106.44
Sep-2017  95.69  98.10  96.91  99.87  97.88  92.49
Oct-2017  85.15  85.99  89.45  88.42 106.70  90.20
Nov-2017  88.09  92.45  96.55  95.63  93.78  92.55
Dec-2017  98.66 106.54 110.14 109.30 110.19 140.63


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Last update: July 30, 2015