Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS)
February 2016
Fiscal Stimulus and Firms: A Tale of Two Recessions
Abstract:
In this paper, I examine the effects of a countercyclical fiscal policy that gave firms additional tax refunds--additional liquidity--at the end of the past two recessions. I take advantage of a discontinuity in the slope of the tax refund formula to estimate the policy's impact. I find that after passage of the policy in 2002, firms allocated $0.40 of every tax refund dollar to investment. After passage of the policy in 2009, in contrast, firms used the refunds to increase cash holdings ($0.96 of every refund dollar) before paying down debt in the following year. I provide evidence that differences in macroeconomic conditions across the two periods drove these differences in firm responses, illustrating how the effects of stimulus vary across recessionary states of the world. I also show that while the policy had no discernable effect on investment in the most recent recessionary period, it did reduce firms' bankruptcy risk and the probability of a future credit- rating downgrade.
Keywords: Financing policy, fiscal policy, fixed investment, taxation
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2016.013
PDF: Full Paper