July 2015

Identification of First-Price Auctions With Biased Beliefs

Serafin J. Grundl and Yu Zhu


This paper exploits variation in the number of bidders to separately identify the valuation distribution and the bidders' belief about the valuation distribution in first-price auctions with independent private values. Exploiting variation in auction volume the result is extended to environments with risk averse bidders. In an illustrative application we fail to reject the null hypothesis of correct beliefs.

Accessible materials (.zip)

Keywords: Biased beliefs, first-price auction, nonparametric identification, risk aversion

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2015.056

PDF: Full Paper

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Last Update: June 19, 2020