June 1985

Conditional Econometric Modelling: An Application to New House Prices in the United Kingdom

Neil R. Ericsson and David F. Hendry


The statistical formulation of the econometric model is viewed as a sequence of marginalizing and conditioning operations which reduce the parameterization to manageable dimensions. Such operations entail that the "error" is a derived rather than an autonomous process, suggesting designing the model to satisfy data-based and theory criteria. The relevant concepts are explained and applied to data modelling of UK new house prices in the framework of an economic theory-model of house builders. The econometric model is compared with univariate time-series models and tested against a range of alternatives.

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Last Update: August 13, 2021